Search results for: scenario modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2898

Search results for: scenario modelling

2478 Using Facebook as an Alternative Learning Tools in Malaysian Higher Learning Institutions: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach

Authors: Ahasanul Haque, Abdullah Sarwar, Khaliq Ahmed

Abstract:

Networking is important among students to achieve better understanding. Social networking plays an important role in the education. Realizing its huge potential, various organizations, including institutions of higher learning have moved to the area of social networks to interact with their students especially through Facebook. Therefore, measuring the effectiveness of Facebook as a learning tool has become an area of interest to academicians and researchers. Therefore, this study tried to integrate and propose new theoretical and empirical evidences by linking the western idea of adopting Facebook as an alternative learning platform from a Malaysian perspective. This study, thus, aimed to fill a gap by being among the pioneering research that tries to study the effectiveness of adopting Facebook as a learning platform across other cultural settings, namely Malaysia. Structural equation modelling was employed for data analysis and hypothesis testing. This study findings have provided some insights that would likely affect students’ awareness towards using Facebook as an alternative learning platform in the Malaysian higher learning institutions. At the end, future direction is proposed.

Keywords: Learning Management Tool, social networking, education, Malaysia

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2477 The Effects of Transformational Leadership on Process Innovation through Knowledge Sharing

Authors: Sawsan J. Al-Husseini, Talib A. Dosa

Abstract:

Transformational leadership has been identified as the most important factor affecting innovation and knowledge sharing; it leads to increased goal-directed behavior exhibited by followers and thus to enhanced performance and innovation for the organization. However, there is a lack of models linking transformational leadership, knowledge sharing, and process innovation within higher education (HE) institutions in general within developing countries, particularly in Iraq. This research aims to examine the mediating role of knowledge sharing in the transformational leadership and process innovation relationship. A quantitative approach was taken and 254 usable questionnaires were collected from public HE institutions in Iraq. Structural equation modelling with AMOS 22 was used to analyze the causal relationships among factors. The research found that knowledge sharing plays a pivotal role in the relationship between transformational leadership and process innovation, and that transformational leadership would be ideal in an educational context, promoting knowledge sharing activities and influencing process innovation in the public HE in Iraq. The research has developed some guidelines for researchers as well as leaders and provided evidence to support the use of TL to increase process innovation within HE environment in developing countries, particularly in Iraq.

Keywords: transformational leadership, knowledge sharing, process innovation, structural equation modelling, developing countries

Procedia PDF Downloads 319
2476 Postoperative Emergence Delirium in Children: An Incomprehensible Scenario For Parents’

Authors: Jenny Ringblom, Marie Proczkowska, Laura Korhonen, Ingrid Wåhlin

Abstract:

Background: Emergence delirium is a well-known behaviour of perceptual disturbances that may occur after general anaesthesia in children. Children with emergence delirium are often confused; they cry, are involuntarily physically active and are almost impossible to console. The prevalence varies considerably between about 13% and 53%. Research has mainly focused on how different medication accents affect the incidence of emergence delirium, but less is known about parents’ experiences of emergence delirium during the recovery process. Aim: The aim of this study was to describe parents’ experiences and reflections during their child's emergence delirium behaviour when recovering from anaesthesia. Method: The study has a qualitative design, and the data has been analyzed using thematic analysis. A total of 16 parents were interviewed at two county hospitals in Sweden. Results: When the parents reunited with their child at the recovering unit, they felt as if they were encountering an incomprehensible scenario. When watching their child demonstrating emergence delirium, they experienced fear and insecurity and had feelings of powerlessness and guilt. Information and previous experience turned out to offer relief and being seen by the healthcare staff when they, in their vulnerability, failed to reach or console their child gave hope and energy. Conclusion: Emergence delirium must be extensively considered in children undergoing general anaesthesia. Healthcare staff needs to be aware of the parental difficulties it may cause. There is also important to know what parents experience as relieving, such as receiving information and when staff members are being available, responsive and supportive during the wake-up period.

Keywords: emergence delirium, experiences, pediatrics, parents, postoperative care

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2475 3D Numerical Modelling of a Pulsed Pumping Process of a Large Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid Pool: In situ Pilot-Scale Case Study of Hexachlorobutadiene in a Keyed Enclosure

Authors: Q. Giraud, J. Gonçalvès, B. Paris

Abstract:

Remediation of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) represents a challenging issue because of their persistent behaviour in the environment. This pilot-scale study investigates, by means of in situ experiments and numerical modelling, the feasibility of the pulsed pumping process of a large amount of a DNAPL in an alluvial aquifer. The main compound of the DNAPL is hexachlorobutadiene, an emerging organic pollutant. A low-permeability keyed enclosure was built at the location of the DNAPL source zone in order to isolate a finite undisturbed volume of soil, and a 3-month pulsed pumping process was applied inside the enclosure to exclusively extract the DNAPL. The water/DNAPL interface elevation at both the pumping and observation wells and the cumulated pumped volume of DNAPL were also recorded. A total volume of about 20m³ of purely DNAPL was recovered since no water was extracted during the process. The three-dimensional and multiphase flow simulator TMVOC was used, and a conceptual model was elaborated and generated with the pre/post-processing tool mView. Numerical model consisted of 10 layers of variable thickness and 5060 grid cells. Numerical simulations reproduce the pulsed pumping process and show an excellent match between simulated, and field data of DNAPL cumulated pumped volume and a reasonable agreement between modelled and observed data for the evolution of the water/DNAPL interface elevations at the two wells. This study offers a new perspective in remediation since DNAPL pumping system optimisation may be performed where a large amount of DNAPL is encountered.

Keywords: dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL), hexachlorobutadiene, in situ pulsed pumping, multiphase flow, numerical modelling, porous media

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2474 Integration of Climatic Factors in the Meta-Population Modelling of the Dynamic of Malaria Transmission, Case of Douala and Yaoundé, Two Cities of Cameroon

Authors: Justin-Herve Noubissi, Jean Claude Kamgang, Eric Ramat, Januarius Asongu, Christophe Cambier

Abstract:

The goal of our study is to analyse the impact of climatic factors in malaria transmission taking into account migration between Douala and Yaoundé, two cities of Cameroon country. We show how variations of climatic factors such as temperature and relative humidity affect the malaria spread. We propose a meta-population model of the dynamic transmission of malaria that evolves in space and time and that takes into account temperature and relative humidity and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé. We also integrate the variation of environmental factors as events also called mathematical impulsion that can disrupt the model evolution at any time. Our modelling has been done using the Discrete EVents System Specification (DEVS) formalism. Our implementation has been done on Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) that uses DEVS formalism and abstract simulators for coupling models by integrating the concept of DEVS.

Keywords: compartmental models, DEVS, discrete events, meta-population model, VLE

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2473 Local Spectrum Feature Extraction for Face Recognition

Authors: Muhammad Imran Ahmad, Ruzelita Ngadiran, Mohd Nazrin Md Isa, Nor Ashidi Mat Isa, Mohd ZaizuIlyas, Raja Abdullah Raja Ahmad, Said Amirul Anwar Ab Hamid, Muzammil Jusoh

Abstract:

This paper presents two technique, local feature extraction using image spectrum and low frequency spectrum modelling using GMM to capture the underlying statistical information to improve the performance of face recognition system. Local spectrum features are extracted using overlap sub block window that are mapping on the face image. For each of this block, spatial domain is transformed to frequency domain using DFT. A low frequency coefficient is preserved by discarding high frequency coefficients by applying rectangular mask on the spectrum of the facial image. Low frequency information is non Gaussian in the feature space and by using combination of several Gaussian function that has different statistical properties, the best feature representation can be model using probability density function. The recognition process is performed using maximum likelihood value computed using pre-calculate GMM components. The method is tested using FERET data sets and is able to achieved 92% recognition rates.

Keywords: local features modelling, face recognition system, Gaussian mixture models, Feret

Procedia PDF Downloads 645
2472 Distribution System Modelling: A Holistic Approach for Harmonic Studies

Authors: Stanislav Babaev, Vladimir Cuk, Sjef Cobben, Jan Desmet

Abstract:

The procedures for performing harmonic studies for medium-voltage distribution feeders have become relatively mature topics since the early 1980s. The efforts of various electric power engineers and researchers were mainly focused on handling large harmonic non-linear loads connected scarcely at several buses of medium-voltage feeders. In order to assess the impact of these loads on the voltage quality of the distribution system, specific modeling and simulation strategies were proposed. These methodologies could deliver a reasonable estimation accuracy given the requirements of least computational efforts and reduced complexity. To uphold these requirements, certain analysis assumptions have been made, which became de facto standards for establishing guidelines for harmonic analysis. Among others, typical assumptions include balanced conditions of the study and the negligible impact of impedance frequency characteristics of various power system components. In latter, skin and proximity effects are usually omitted, and resistance and reactance values are modeled based on the theoretical equations. Further, the simplifications of the modelling routine have led to the commonly accepted practice of neglecting phase angle diversity effects. This is mainly associated with developed load models, which only in a handful of cases are representing the complete harmonic behavior of a certain device as well as accounting on the harmonic interaction between grid harmonic voltages and harmonic currents. While these modelling practices were proven to be reasonably effective for medium-voltage levels, similar approaches have been adopted for low-voltage distribution systems. Given modern conditions and massive increase in usage of residential electronic devices, recent and ongoing boom of electric vehicles, and large-scale installing of distributed solar power, the harmonics in current low-voltage grids are characterized by high degree of variability and demonstrate sufficient diversity leading to a certain level of cancellation effects. It is obvious, that new modelling algorithms overcoming previously made assumptions have to be accepted. In this work, a simulation approach aimed to deal with some of the typical assumptions is proposed. A practical low-voltage feeder is modeled in PowerFactory. In order to demonstrate the importance of diversity effect and harmonic interaction, previously developed measurement-based models of photovoltaic inverter and battery charger are used as loads. The Python-based script aiming to supply varying voltage background distortion profile and the associated current harmonic response of loads is used as the core of unbalanced simulation. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty of feeder frequency-impedance characteristics on total harmonic distortion levels is shown along with scenarios involving linear resistive loads, which further alter the impedance of the system. The comparative analysis demonstrates sufficient differences with cases when all the assumptions are in place, and results indicate that new modelling and simulation procedures need to be adopted for low-voltage distribution systems with high penetration of non-linear loads and renewable generation.

Keywords: electric power system, harmonic distortion, power quality, public low-voltage network, harmonic modelling

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2471 Examining the Role of Willingness to Communicate in Cross-Cultural Adaptation in East-Asia

Authors: Baohua Yu

Abstract:

Despite widely reported 'Mainland-Hong Kong conflicts', recent years have witnessed progressive growth in the numbers of Mainland Chinese students in Hong Kong’s universities. This research investigated Mainland Chinese students’ intercultural communication in relation to cross-cultural adaptation in a major university in Hong Kong. The features of intercultural communication examined in this study were competence in the second language (L2) communication and L2 Willingness to Communicate (WTC), while the features of cross-cultural adaptation examined were socio-cultural, psychological and academic adaptation. Based on a questionnaire, structural equation modelling was conducted among a sample of 196 Mainland Chinese students. Results showed that the competence in L2 communication played a significant role in L2 WTC, which had an influential effect on academic adaptation, which was itself identified as a mediator between the psychological adaptation and socio-cultural adaptation. Implications for curriculum design for courses and instructional practice on international students are discussed.

Keywords: L2 willingness to communicate, competence in L2 communication, psychological adaptation, socio-cultural adaptation, academic adaptation, structural equation modelling

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2470 Modelling a Distribution Network with a Hybrid Solar-Hydro Power Plant in Rural Cameroon

Authors: Contimi Kenfack Mouafo, Sebastian Klick

Abstract:

In the rural and remote areas of Cameroon, access to electricity is very limited since most of the population is not connected to the main utility grid. Throughout the country, efforts are underway to not only expand the utility grid to these regions but also to provide reliable off-grid access to electricity. The Cameroonian company Solahydrowatt is currently working on the design and planning of one of the first hybrid solar-hydropower plants of Cameroon in Fotetsa, in the western region of the country, to provide the population with reliable access to electricity. This paper models and proposes a design for the low-voltage network with a hybrid solar-hydropower plant in Fotetsa. The modelling takes into consideration the voltage compliance of the distribution network, the maximum load of operating equipment, and most importantly, the ability for the network to operate as an off-grid system. The resulting modelled distribution network does not only comply with the Cameroonian voltage deviation standard, but it is also capable of being operated as a stand-alone network independent of the main utility grid.

Keywords: Cameroon, rural electrification, hybrid solar-hydro, off-grid electricity supply, network simulation

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2469 Mathematical Modelling of Drying Kinetics of Cantaloupe in a Solar Assisted Dryer

Authors: Melike Sultan Karasu Asnaz, Ayse Ozdogan Dolcek

Abstract:

Crop drying, which aims to reduce the moisture content to a certain level, is a method used to extend the shelf life and prevent it from spoiling. One of the oldest food preservation techniques is open sunor shade drying. Even though this technique is the most affordable of all drying methods, there are some drawbacks such as contamination by insects, environmental pollution, windborne dust, and direct expose to weather conditions such as wind, rain, hail. However, solar dryers that provide a hygienic and controllable environment to preserve food and extend its shelf life have been developed and used to dry agricultural products. Thus, foods can be dried quickly without being affected by weather variables, and quality products can be obtained. This research is mainly devoted to investigating the modelling of drying kinetics of cantaloupe in a forced convection solar dryer. Mathematical models for the drying process should be defined to simulate the drying behavior of the foodstuff, which will greatly contribute to the development of solar dryer designs. Thus, drying experiments were conducted and replicated five times, and various data such as temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiation, drying air speed, and weight were instantly monitored and recorded. Moisture content of sliced and pretreated cantaloupe were converted into moisture ratio and then fitted against drying time for constructing drying curves. Then, 10 quasi-theoretical and empirical drying models were applied to find the best drying curve equation according to the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear optimization method. The best fitted mathematical drying model was selected according to the highest coefficient of determination (R²), and the mean square of the deviations (χ^²) and root mean square error (RMSE) criterial. The best fitted model was utilized to simulate a thin layer solar drying of cantaloupe, and the simulation results were compared with the experimental data for validation purposes.

Keywords: solar dryer, mathematical modelling, drying kinetics, cantaloupe drying

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2468 Numerical Modelling of Shear Zone and Its Implications on Slope Instability at Letšeng Diamond Open Pit Mine, Lesotho

Authors: M. Ntšolo, D. Kalumba, N. Lefu, G. Letlatsa

Abstract:

Rock mass damage due to shear tectonic activity has been investigated largely in geoscience where fluid transport is of major interest. However, little has been studied on the effect of shear zones on rock mass behavior and its impact on stability of rock slopes. At Letšeng Diamonds open pit mine in Lesotho, the shear zone composed of sheared kimberlite material, calcite and altered basalt is forming part of the haul ramp into the main pit cut 3. The alarming rate at which the shear zone is deteriorating has triggered concerns about both local and global stability of pit the walls. This study presents the numerical modelling of the open pit slope affected by shear zone at Letšeng Diamond Mine (LDM). Analysis of the slope involved development of the slope model by using a two-dimensional finite element code RS2. Interfaces between shear zone and host rock were represented by special joint elements incorporated in the finite element code. The analysis of structural geological mapping data provided a good platform to understand the joint network. Major joints including shear zone were incorporated into the model for simulation. This approach proved successful by demonstrating that continuum modelling can be used to evaluate evolution of stresses, strain, plastic yielding and failure mechanisms that are consistent with field observations. Structural control due to geological shear zone structure proved to be important in its location, size and orientation. Furthermore, the model analyzed slope deformation and sliding possibility along shear zone interfaces. This type of approach can predict shear zone deformation and failure mechanism, hence mitigation strategies can be deployed for safety of human lives and property within mine pits.

Keywords: numerical modeling, open pit mine, shear zone, slope stability

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2467 Modelling of Heat Transfer during Controlled Cooling of Thermo-Mechanically Treated Rebars Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Approach

Authors: Rohit Agarwal, Mrityunjay K. Singh, Soma Ghosh, Ramesh Shankar, Biswajit Ghosh, Vinay V. Mahashabde

Abstract:

Thermo-mechanical treatment (TMT) of rebars is a critical process to impart sufficient strength and ductility to rebar. TMT rebars are produced by the Tempcore process, involves an 'in-line' heat treatment in which hot rolled bar (temperature is around 1080°C) is passed through water boxes where it is quenched under high pressure water jets (temperature is around 25°C). The quenching rate dictates composite structure consisting (four non-homogenously distributed phases of rebar microstructure) pearlite-ferrite, bainite, and tempered martensite (from core to rim). The ferrite and pearlite phases present at core induce ductility to rebar while martensitic rim induces appropriate strength. The TMT process is difficult to model as it brings multitude of complex physics such as heat transfer, highly turbulent fluid flow, multicomponent and multiphase flow present in the control volume. Additionally the presence of film boiling regime (above Leidenfrost point) due to steam formation adds complexity to domain. A coupled heat transfer and fluid flow model based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been developed at product technology division of Tata Steel, India which efficiently predicts temperature profile and percentage martensite rim thickness of rebar during quenching process. The model has been validated with 16 mm rolling of New Bar mill (NBM) plant of Tata Steel Limited, India. Furthermore, based on the scenario analyses, optimal configuration of nozzles was found which helped in subsequent increase in rolling speed.

Keywords: boiling, critical heat flux, nozzles, thermo-mechanical treatment

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2466 Implementing Building Information Modelling to Attain Lean and Green Benefits

Authors: Ritu Ahuja

Abstract:

Globally the built environment sector is striving to be highly efficient, quality-centred and socially-responsible. Built environment sector is an integral part of the economy and plays an important role in urbanization, industrialization and improved quality of living. The inherent challenges such as excessive material and process waste, over reliance on resources, energy usage, and carbon footprint need to be addressed in order to meet the needs of the economy. It is envisioned that these challenges can be resolved by integration of Lean-Green-Building Information Modelling (BIM) paradigms. Ipso facto, with BIM as a catalyst, this research identifies the operational and tactical connections of lean and green philosophies by providing a conceptual integration framework and underpinning theories. The research has developed a framework for BIM-based organizational capabilities for enhanced adoption and effective use of BIM within architectural organizations. The study was conducted through a sequential mixed method approach focusing on collecting and analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data. The framework developed as part of this study will enable architectural organizations to successfully embrace BIM on projects and gain lean and green benefits.

Keywords: BIM, lean, green, AEC organizations

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2465 Using Tilted Façade to Reduce Thermal Discomfort in a UK Passivhaus Dwelling for a Warming Climate

Authors: Yahya Lavafpour, Steve Sharples

Abstract:

This study investigated the potential negative impacts of future UK climate change on dwellings. In particular, the risk of overheating was considered for a Passivhaus dwelling in London. The study used dynamic simulation modelling software to investigate the potential use of building geometry to control current and future overheating risks in the dwelling for London climate. Specifically, the focus was on the optimum inclination of a south façade to make use of the building’s shape to self-protect itself. A range of different inclined façades were examined to test their effectiveness in reducing the overheating risk. The research found that implementing a 115° tilted façade could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in current climate, but with some consequence for natural ventilation and daylighting. Future overheating was significantly reduced by the tilted façade. However, geometric considerations could not eradicate completely the risk of overheating particularly by the 2080s. The study also used CFD modelling and sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the façade geometry on the wind pressure distributions on and around the building surface. This was done to assess natural ventilation flows for alternative façade inclinations.

Keywords: climate change, tilt façade, thermal comfort, passivhaus, overheating

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2464 Effectiveness of Column Geometry in High-Rise Buildings

Authors: Man Singh Meena

Abstract:

Structural engineers are facing different kind of challenges due to innovative & bold ideas of architects who are trying to design every structure with uniqueness. In RCC frame structures different geometry of columns can be used in design and rectangular columns can be placed with different type orientation. The analysis is design of structures can also be carried out by different type of software available i.e., STAAD Pro, ETABS and TEKLA. In recent times high-rise building modeling & analysis is done by ETABS due to its certain features which are superior to other software. The case study in this paper mainly emphasizes on structural behavior of high rise building for different column shape configurations like Circular, Square, Rectangular and Rectangular with 90-degree Rotation and rectangular shape plan. In all these column shapes the areas of columns are kept same to study the effect on design of concrete area is same. Modelling of 20-storeys R.C.C. framed building is done on the ETABS software for analysis. Post analysis of the structure, maximum bending moments, shear forces and maximum longitudinal reinforcement are computed and compared for three different story structures to identify the effectiveness of geometry of column.

Keywords: high-rise building, column geometry, building modelling, ETABS analysis, building design, structural analysis, structural optimization

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2463 Aerodynamic Analysis of the Airfoil of a VAWT by Using 2D CFD Modelling

Authors: Luis F. Garcia, Julian E. Jaramillo, Jorge L. Chacón

Abstract:

Colombia is a country where the benefits of wind power industry are barely used because of the geography in some areas does not allow the implementation of onshore horizontal axis wind turbines. Furthermore, exist rural areas without access to the electrical grid. Therefore, there is currently a deficit of energy supply in some towns. This research took place in one of those areas (i.e. Chicamocha Canyon-Santander) where the answer to the energy supply problems could be the use of vertical axis wind turbines, which can be used for turbulent flows. Hence, one task of this research is the analysis of the wind resources in the Chicamocha Canyon in order to implement the wind energy. The wind turbines must be designed in such a way that the blades take good advantage of the wind resources in the area of interest. Consequently, in the current research the analysis of two different airfoils (i.e. NACA0018 and DU 06-W-200) through a 2D CFD simulation is carried out by means of a free-software (OpenFOAM). Predicted results using the “Spalart-Allmaras” turbulence model are similar to the wind tunnel data published in the literature. Moreover, global parameters such as dimensionless lift and drag coefficients were calculated. Finally, this research encourages VAWT studies under wind turbulent flows in order to achieve the best use of natural resources in Colombia.

Keywords: airfoil, wind turbine, turbulence modelling, Chicamocha, CFD

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2462 Investigation of Projected Organic Waste Impact on a Tropical Wetland in Singapore

Authors: Swee Yang Low, Dong Eon Kim, Canh Tien Trinh Nguyen, Yixiong Cai, Shie-Yui Liong

Abstract:

Nee Soon swamp forest is one of the last vestiges of tropical wetland in Singapore. Understanding the hydrological regime of the swamp forest and implications for water quality is critical to guide stakeholders in implementing effective measures to preserve the wetland against anthropogenic impacts. In particular, although current field measurement data do not indicate a concern with organic pollution, reviewing the ways in which the wetland responds to elevated organic waste influx (and the corresponding impact on dissolved oxygen, DO) can help identify potential hotspots, and the impact on the outflow from the catchment which drains into downstream controlled watercourses. An integrated water quality model is therefore developed in this study to investigate spatial and temporal concentrations of DO levels and organic pollution (as quantified by biochemical oxygen demand, BOD) within the catchment’s river network under hypothetical, projected scenarios of spiked upstream inflow. The model was developed using MIKE HYDRO for modelling the study domain, as well as the MIKE ECO Lab numerical laboratory for characterising water quality processes. Model parameters are calibrated against time series of observed discharges at three measurement stations along the river network. Over a simulation period of April 2014 to December 2015, the calibrated model predicted that a continuous spiked inflow of 400 mg/l BOD will elevate downstream concentrations at the catchment outlet to an average of 12 mg/l, from an assumed nominal baseline BOD of 1 mg/l. Levels of DO were decreased from an initial 5 mg/l to 0.4 mg/l. Though a scenario of spiked organic influx at the swamp forest’s undeveloped upstream sub-catchments is currently unlikely to occur, the outcomes nevertheless will be beneficial for future planning studies in understanding how the water quality of the catchment will be impacted should urban redevelopment works be considered around the swamp forest.

Keywords: hydrology, modeling, water quality, wetland

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2461 Unveiling Drought Dynamics in the Cuneo District, Italy: A Machine Learning-Enhanced Hydrological Modelling Approach

Authors: Mohammadamin Hashemi, Mohammadreza Kashizadeh

Abstract:

Droughts pose a significant threat to sustainable water resource management, agriculture, and socioeconomic sectors, particularly in the field of climate change. This study investigates drought simulation using rainfall-runoff modelling in the Cuneo district, Italy, over the past 60-year period. The study leverages the TUW model, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a semi-distributed operation capability. Similar in structure to the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, the TUW model operates on daily timesteps for input and output data specific to each catchment. It incorporates essential routines for snow accumulation and melting, soil moisture storage, and streamflow generation. Multiple catchments' discharge data within the Cuneo district form the basis for thorough model calibration employing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric. A crucial metric for reliable drought analysis is one that can accurately represent low-flow events during drought periods. This ensures that the model provides a realistic picture of water availability during these critical times. Subsequent validation of monthly discharge simulations thoroughly evaluates overall model performance. Beyond model development, the investigation delves into drought analysis using the robust Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). This index allows for precise characterization of drought occurrences within the study area. A meticulous comparison of observed and simulated discharge data is conducted, with particular focus on low-flow events that characterize droughts. Additionally, the study explores the complex interplay between land characteristics (e.g., soil type, vegetation cover) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) that influence the severity and duration of hydrological droughts. The study's findings demonstrate successful calibration of the TUW model across most catchments, achieving commendable model efficiency. Comparative analysis between simulated and observed discharge data reveals significant agreement, especially during critical low-flow periods. This agreement is further supported by the Pareto coefficient, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit. The drought analysis provides critical insights into the duration, intensity, and severity of drought events within the Cuneo district. This newfound understanding of spatial and temporal drought dynamics offers valuable information for water resource management strategies and drought mitigation efforts. This research deepens our understanding of drought dynamics in the Cuneo region. Future research directions include refining hydrological modelling techniques and exploring future drought projections under various climate change scenarios.

Keywords: hydrologic extremes, hydrological drought, hydrological modelling, machine learning, rainfall-runoff modelling

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2460 Urban Dynamics Modelling of Mixed Land Use for Sustainable Urban Development in Indian Context

Authors: Rewati Raman, Uttam K. Roy

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One of the main adversaries of city planning in present times is the ever-expanding problem of urbanization and the antagonistic issues accompanying it. The prevalent challenges in urbanization such as population growth, urban sprawl, poverty, inequality, pollution, congestion, etc. call for reforms in the urban fabric as well as in planning theory and practice. One of the various paradigms of city planning, land use planning, has been the major instruments for spatial planning of cities and regions in India. Zoning regulation based land use planning in the form of land use and development control plans (LUDCP) and development control regulations (DCR) have been considered mainstream guiding principles in land use planning for decades. In spite of many advantages of such zoning based regulations, over a period of time, it has been critiqued by scholars for its own limitations of isolation and lack of vitality, inconvenience in business in terms of proximity to residence and low operating cost, unsuitable environment for small investments, higher travel distance for facilities, amenities and thereby higher expenditure, safety issues etc. Mixed land use has been advocated as a tool to avoid such limitations in city planning by researchers. In addition, mixed land use can offer many advantages like housing variety and density, the creation of an economic blend of compatible land use, compact development, stronger neighborhood character, walkability, and generation of jobs, etc. Alternatively, the mixed land use beyond a suitable balance of use can also bring disadvantages like traffic congestion, encroachments, very high-density housing leading to a slum like condition, parking spill out, non-residential uses operating on residential premises paying less tax, chaos hampering residential privacy, pressure on existing infrastructure facilities, etc. This research aims at studying and outlining the various challenges and potentials of mixed land use zoning, through modeling tools, as a competent instrument for city planning in lieu of the present urban scenario. The methodology of research adopted in this paper involves the study of a mixed land use neighborhood in India, identification of indicators and parameters related to its extent and spatial pattern and the subsequent use of system dynamics as a modeling tool for simulation. The findings from this analysis helped in identifying the various advantages and challenges associated with the dynamic nature of a mixed use urban settlement. The results also confirmed the hypothesis that mixed use neighborhoods are catalysts for employment generation, socioeconomic gains while improving vibrancy, health, safety, and security. It is also seen that certain challenges related to chaos, lack of privacy and pollution prevail in mixed use neighborhoods, which can be mitigated by varying the percentage of mixing as per need, ensuring compatibility of adjoining use, institutional interventions in the form of policies, neighborhood micro-climatic interventions, etc. Therefore this paper gives a consolidated and holistic framework and quantified outcome pertaining to the extent and spatial pattern of mixed land use that should be adopted to ensure sustainable urban planning.

Keywords: mixed land use, sustainable development, system dynamics analysis, urban dynamics modelling

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2459 Design, Modelling, and Fabrication of Bioinspired Frog Robot for Synchronous and Asynchronous Swimming

Authors: Afaque Manzoor Soomro, Faheem Ahmed, Fida Hussain Memon, Kyung Hyun Choi

Abstract:

This paper proposes the bioinspired soft frog robot. All printing technology was used for the fabrication of the robot. Polyjet printing was used to print the front and back limbs, while ultrathin filament was used to print the body of the robot, which makes it a complete soft swimming robot. The dual thrust generation approach has been proposed by embedding the main muscle and antagonistic muscle in all the limbs, which enables it to attain high speed (18 mm/s), and significant control of swimming in dual modes (synchronous and asynchronous modes). To achieve the swimming motion of the frog, the design, motivated by the rigorous modelling and real frog dynamics analysis, enabled the as-developed frog robot (FROBOT) to swim at a significant level of consistency with the real frog. The FROBOT (weighing 65 g) can swim at different controllable frequencies (0.5–2Hz) and can turn in any direction by following custom-made LabVIEW software’s commands which enables it to swim at speed up to 18 mm/s on the surface of deep water (100 cm) with excellent weight balance.

Keywords: soft robotics, soft actuator, frog robot, 3D printing

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2458 Improving Human Resources Management in Indian Civil Service

Authors: Anant Deogaonkar, Archana Nanoty

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The term civil service plays a vital role in functioning of any government. In today’s modern era of globalization civil services essentially contribute for the success of the good governance system. The civil service in India refers to the body of government officials employed in civil occupations that are neither political nor judicial. The Indian Civil Services were created to foster the idea of unity in diversity with the expectation of giving continuity and change in administration independent of the political scenario and turmoil affecting the country. The civil service is an integral part of administration and the structures of administration to determine the way civil service functions. The concept of good governance necessarily precludes the effective human resource management ensuring the root level reach of the good governance. The serious matter of concern is the element of change. The civil service in general has maintained status quo instead of sweeping changes in social and economic scenario. One may disagree for this but it is a fact on the street that the Indian civil service was not able to deliver up to the expectations of the people and was lacking on the service front. The effective management of human resources at civil service needs to be prioritized and will form a key factor in successful delivery of the desired results may be in minimum duration. This paper focuses on the various ways of effective management of human resources in civil services. It also highlights the importance of improvement in human resource management in civil services with the detailed discussion of positives and negatives if any of the human resource management in civil services.

Keywords: civil services, human resources management, India, governance

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2457 Modelling of Organic Rankine Cycle for Waste Heat Recovery Process in Supercritical Condition

Authors: Jahedul Islam Chowdhury, Bao Kha Nguyen, David Thornhill, Roy Douglas, Stephen Glover

Abstract:

Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is the most commonly used method for recovering energy from small sources of heat. The investigation of the ORC in supercritical condition is a new research area as it has a potential to generate high power and thermal efficiency in a waste heat recovery system. This paper presents a steady state ORC model in supercritical condition and its simulations with a real engine’s exhaust data. The key component of ORC, evaporator, is modelled using finite volume method, modelling of all other components of the waste heat recovery system such as pump, expander and condenser are also presented. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of mass flow rate and evaporator outlet temperature on the efficiency of the waste heat recovery process. Additionally, the necessity of maintaining an optimum evaporator outlet temperature is also investigated. Simulation results show that modification of mass flow rate is the key to changing the operating temperature at the evaporator outlet.

Keywords: Organic Rankine cycle, supercritical condition, steady state model, waste heat recovery

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2456 Scheduling Building Projects: The Chronographical Modeling Concept

Authors: Adel Francis

Abstract:

Most of scheduling methods and software apply the critical path logic. This logic schedule activities, apply constraints between these activities and try to optimize and level the allocated resources. The extensive use of this logic produces a complex an erroneous network hard to present, follow and update. Planning and management building projects should tackle the coordination of works and the management of limited spaces, traffic, and supplies. Activities cannot be performed without the resources available and resources cannot be used beyond the capacity of workplaces. Otherwise, workspace congestion will negatively affect the flow of works. The objective of the space planning is to link the spatial and temporal aspects, promote efficient use of the site, define optimal site occupancy rates, and ensures suitable rotation of the workforce in the different spaces. The Chronographic scheduling modelling belongs to this category and models construction operations as well as their processes, logical constraints, association and organizational models, which help to better illustrate the schedule information using multiple flexible approaches. The model defined three categories of areas (punctual, surface and linear) and four different layers (space creation, systems, closing off space, finishing, and reduction of space). The Chronographical modelling is a more complete communication method, having the ability to alternate from one visual approach to another by manipulation of graphics via a set of parameters and their associated values. Each individual approach can help to schedule a certain project type or specialty. Visual communication can also be improved through layering, sheeting, juxtaposition, alterations, and permutations, allowing for groupings, hierarchies, and classification of project information. In this way, graphic representation becomes a living, transformable image, showing valuable information in a clear and comprehensible manner, simplifying the site management while simultaneously utilizing the visual space as efficiently as possible.

Keywords: building projects, chronographic modelling, CPM, critical path, precedence diagram, scheduling

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2455 The Bicoid Gradient in the Drosophila Embryo: 3D Modelling with Realistic Egg Geometries

Authors: Alexander V. Spirov, David M. Holloway, Ekaterina M. Myasnikova

Abstract:

Segmentation of the early Drosophila embryo results from the dynamic establishment of spatial gene expression patterns. Patterning occurs on an embryo geometry which is a 'deformed' prolate ellipsoid, with anteroposterior and dorsal-ventral major and minor axes, respectively. Patterning is largely independent along each axis, but some interaction can be seen in the 'bending' of the segmental expression stripes. This interaction is not well understood. In this report, we investigate how 3D geometrical features of the early embryo affect the segmental expression patterning. Specifically, we study the effect of geometry on formation of the Bicoid primary morphogenetic gradient. Our computational results demonstrate that embryos with a much longer ventral than dorsal surface ('bellied') can produce curved Bicoid concentration contours which could activate curved stripes in the downstream pair-rule segmentation genes. In addition, we show that having an extended source for Bicoid in the anterior of the embryo may be necessary for producing the observed exponential form of the Bicoid gradient along the anteroposterior axis.

Keywords: Drosophila embryo, bicoid morphogenetic gradient, exponential expression profile, expression surface form, segmentation genes, 3D modelling

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2454 Bilateral Relations in Matter of Defense between Argentina-United States and Argentina-China along the Period 2005-2015: Advice to Develop a Rational Defense Foreign Policy for Peripheral Countries

Authors: Alvarez Magañini, María Victoria-Rubbi, Lautaro Nahuel

Abstract:

At present, we are facing an unstable international context, conditioned by a relative decline of the US power, primarily in the economic sphere and, to a lesser extent, in the military sphere. This scenario of multipolarity creates tension and uncertainty in the peripheral countries when the issue of their foreign policy arises. This paper presents an analysis of the bilateral relations that were maintained by the Argentine Republic, a peripheral country, along with the United States and China during the period of 2005-2015 in matters of defense in order to identify the empirical consequences resulted from the Argentine actions. Based on the conceptual framework of Peripheral Realism, we analyze indicators related to the weapon trade, defense loans, joint exercises, and personnel training, among others. There will also be a comparative analysis of the conventional military forces of the two powers in question, United States and China. As a conclusion, the cost of having closer relations with China instead of the United States in the defense agenda has been clearly higher than the benefits obtained. The conclusions drawn are empirically aligned with the theoretical paradigm of peripheral realism. Although there are certain conceptual and methodological digressions, these conclusions they could be useful to update and adapt the theory to the current complex international scenario.

Keywords: China, United States, Argentine, peripheral country, peripheral realism

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2453 Prediction of Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Dynamics in an Iowan Agriculture Watershed

Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

Abstract:

In this study, a physically-based, modelling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (KSAT) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modelling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the KSAT field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured KSAT values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of KSAT variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities.

Keywords: saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools

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2452 Molecular Modeling of 17-Picolyl and 17-Picolinylidene Androstane Derivatives with Anticancer Activity

Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Kovačević, Lidija Jevrić, Evgenija Djurendić, Jovana Ajduković

Abstract:

In the present study, the molecular modeling of a series of 24 17-picolyl and 17-picolinylidene androstane derivatives whit significant anticancer activity was carried out. Modelling of studied compounds was performed by CS ChemBioDraw Ultra v12.0 program for drawing 2D molecular structures and CS ChemBio3D Ultra v12.0 for 3D molecular modelling. The obtained 3D structures were subjected to energy minimization using molecular mechanics force field method (MM2). The cutoff for structure optimization was set at a gradient of 0.1 kcal/Åmol. Full geometry optimization was done by the Austin Model 1 (AM1) until the root mean square (RMS) gradient reached a value smaller than 0.0001 kcal/Åmol using Molecular Orbital Package (MOPAC) program. The obtained physicochemical, lipophilicity and topological descriptors were used for analysis of molecular similarities and dissimilarities applying suitable chemometric methods (principal component analysis and cluster analysis). These results are the part of the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina and CMST COST Action CM1306.

Keywords: androstane derivatives, anticancer activity, chemometrics, molecular descriptors

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2451 An Exploratory Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Design Rainfalls in the State of Qatar

Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Niels E. Joergensen, Ataur Rahman, Hassan Qasem

Abstract:

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth Assessment Report AR4 predicts a more extreme climate towards the end of the century, which is likely to impact the design of engineering infrastructure projects with a long design life. A recent study in 2013 developed new design rainfall for Qatar, which provides an improved design basis of drainage infrastructure for the State of Qatar under the current climate. The current design standards in Qatar do not consider increased rainfall intensity caused by climate change. The focus of this paper is to update recently developed design rainfalls in Qatar under the changing climatic conditions based on IPCC's AR4 allowing a later revision to the proposed design standards, relevant for projects with a longer design life. The future climate has been investigated based on the climate models released by IPCC’s AR4 and A2 story line of emission scenarios (SRES) using a stationary approach. Annual maximum series (AMS) of predicted 24 hours rainfall data for both wet (NCAR-CCSM) scenario and dry (CSIRO-MK3.5) scenario for the Qatari grid points in the climate models have been extracted for three periods, current climate 2010-2039, medium term climate (2040-2069) and end of century climate (2070-2099). A homogeneous region of the Qatari grid points has been formed and L-Moments based regional frequency approach is adopted to derive design rainfalls. The results indicate no significant changes in the design rainfall on the short term 2040-2069, but significant changes are expected towards the end of the century (2070-2099). New design rainfalls have been developed taking into account climate change for 2070-2099 scenario and by averaging results from the two scenarios. IPCC’s AR4 predicts that the rainfall intensity for a 5-year return period rain with duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 11% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Similarly, the rainfall intensity for more extreme rainfall, with a return period of 100 years and duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 71% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Infrastructure with a design life exceeding 60 years should add safety factors taking the predicted effects from climate change into due consideration.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfalls, IDF, Qatar

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2450 Transboundary Pollution after Natural Disasters: Scenario Analyses for Uranium at Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Border

Authors: Fengqing Li, Petra Schneider

Abstract:

Failure of tailings management facilities (TMF) of radioactive residues is an enormous challenge worldwide and can result in major catastrophes. Particularly in transboundary regions, such failure is most likely to lead to international conflict. This risk occurs in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where the current major challenge is the quantification of impacts due to pollution from uranium legacy sites and especially the impact on river basins after natural hazards (i.e., landslides). By means of GoldSim, a probabilistic simulation model, the amount of tailing material that flows into the river networks of Mailuu Suu in Kyrgyzstan after pond failure was simulated for three scenarios, namely 10%, 20%, and 30% of material inputs. Based on Muskingum-Cunge flood routing procedure, the peak value of uranium flood wave along the river network was simulated. Among the 23 TMF, 19 ponds are close to the river networks. The spatiotemporal distributions of uranium along the river networks were then simulated for all the 19 ponds under three scenarios. Taking the TP7 which is 30 km far from the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan border as one example, the uranium concentration decreased continuously along the longitudinal gradient of the river network, the concentration of uranium was observed at the border after 45 min of the pond failure and the highest value was detected after 69 min. The highest concentration of uranium at the border were 16.5, 33, and 47.5 mg/L under scenarios of 10%, 20%, and 30% of material inputs, respectively. In comparison to the guideline value of uranium in drinking water (i.e., 30 µg/L) provided by the World Health Organization, the observed concentrations of uranium at the border were 550‒1583 times higher. In order to mitigate the transboundary impact of a radioactive pollutant release, an integrated framework consisting of three major strategies were proposed. Among, the short-term strategy can be used in case of emergency event, the medium-term strategy allows both countries handling the TMF efficiently based on the benefit-sharing concept, and the long-term strategy intends to rehabilitate the site through the relocation of all TMF.

Keywords: Central Asia, contaminant transport modelling, radioactive residue, transboundary conflict

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
2449 Simulation of Concrete Wall Subjected to Airblast by Developing an Elastoplastic Spring Model in Modelica Modelling Language

Authors: Leo Laine, Morgan Johansson

Abstract:

To meet the civilizations future needs for safe living and low environmental footprint, the engineers designing the complex systems of tomorrow will need efficient ways to model and optimize these systems for their intended purpose. For example, a civil defence shelter and its subsystem components needs to withstand, e.g. airblast and ground shock from decided design level explosion which detonates with a certain distance from the structure. In addition, the complex civil defence shelter needs to have functioning air filter systems to protect from toxic gases and provide clean air, clean water, heat, and electricity needs to also be available through shock and vibration safe fixtures and connections. Similar complex building systems can be found in any concentrated living or office area. In this paper, the authors use a multidomain modelling language called Modelica to model a concrete wall as a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system with elastoplastic properties with the implemented option of plastic hardening. The elastoplastic model was developed and implemented in the open source tool OpenModelica. The simulation model was tested on the case with a transient equivalent reflected pressure time history representing an airblast from 100 kg TNT detonating 15 meters from the wall. The concrete wall is approximately regarded as a concrete strip of 1.0 m width. This load represents a realistic threat on any building in a city like area. The OpenModelica model results were compared with an Excel implementation of a SDOF model with an elastic-plastic spring using simple fixed timestep central difference solver. The structural displacement results agreed very well with each other when it comes to plastic displacement magnitude, elastic oscillation displacement, and response times.

Keywords: airblast from explosives, elastoplastic spring model, Modelica modelling language, SDOF, structural response of concrete structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 116