Search results for: multivariate time series

Authors: R. Tlili Yaakoubi, H.Nakouri, O. Blanpain, S. Lallahem

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The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.

Keywords: automation, optimization, paradigm, RTC

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Authors: Matthew Buns

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Training specificity is imperative for successful performance of the elite athlete. Virtual reality (VR) has been successfully applied to a broad range of training domains. However, to date there is little research investigating the use of VR for sport training. The purpose of this study was to address the question of whether virtual reality (VR) training can improve real world hockey shooting performance. Twenty four volunteers were recruited and randomly selected to complete the virtual training intervention or enter a control group with no training. Four primary types of data were collected: 1) participant’s experience with video games and hockey, 2) participant’s motivation toward video game use, 3) participants technical performance on real-world hockey, and 4) participant’s technical performance in virtual hockey. One-way multivariate analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that that the intervention group demonstrated significantly more real-world hockey accuracy [F(1,24) =15.43, p <.01, E.S. = 0.56] while shooting on goal than their control group counterparts [intervention M accuracy = 54.17%, SD=12.38, control M accuracy = 46.76%, SD=13.45]. One-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) repeated measures indicated significantly higher outcome scores on real-world accuracy (35.42% versus 54.17%; ES = 1.52) and velocity (51.10 mph versus 65.50 mph; ES=0.86) of hockey shooting on goal. This research supports the idea that virtual training is an effective tool for increasing real-world hockey skill.

Keywords: virtual training, hockey skills, video game, esports

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Authors: Masood Roohi, Amir Taghavipour

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This paper describes a strategy to develop an energy management system (EMS) for a charge-sustaining power-split hybrid electric vehicle. This kind of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) benefit from the advantages of both parallel and series architecture. However, it gets relatively more complicated to manage power flow between the battery and the engine optimally. The applied strategy in this paper is based on nonlinear model predictive control approach. First of all, an appropriate control-oriented model which was accurate enough and simple was derived. Towards utilization of this controller in real-time, the problem was solved off-line for a vast area of reference signals and initial conditions and stored the computed manipulated variables inside look-up tables. Look-up tables take a little amount of memory. Also, the computational load dramatically decreased, because to find required manipulated variables the controller just needed a simple interpolation between tables.

Keywords: hybrid electric vehicles, energy management system, nonlinear model predictive control, real-time

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Authors: Zixuan Xu, Yichun Lou, Yang Song, Zihuai Lin

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MediaPipe is an open-source machine learning computer vision framework that can be ported into a multi-platform environment, which makes it easier to use it to recognize the human activity. Based on this framework, many human recognition systems have been created, but the fundamental issue is the recognition of human behavior and posture. In this paper, two methods are proposed to recognize human gestures based on MediaPipe, the first one uses the Adaptive Boosting algorithm to recognize a series of fitness gestures, and the second one uses the Fast Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to recognize 413 continuous fitness actions. These two methods are also applicable to any human posture movement recognition.

Keywords: computer vision, MediaPipe, adaptive boosting, fast dynamic time warping

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Authors: Diogo Prosdocimi, Don Ross, Matthew Townshend

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Road authorities are mandated within limited budgets to both deliver improved access to basic services and facilitate economic growth. This responsibility is further complicated if maintenance backlogs and funding shortfalls exist, as evident in many countries including South Africa. These conditions require authorities to make difficult prioritisation decisions, with the effect that Road Asset Management Systems with a one-dimensional focus on traffic volumes may overlook the maintenance of low-volume roads that provide isolated communities with vital access to basic services. Given these challenges, this paper overlays the full South African road network with geo-referenced information for population, primary and secondary schools, and healthcare facilities to identify the network of connective roads between communities and basic service centres. This connective network is then rationalised according to the Gross Value Added and number of jobs per mesozone, administrative and functional road classifications, speed limit, and road length, location, and name to estimate the Basic Access Road Network. A two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method, capturing a weighted assessment of drive-time to service centres and the ratio of people within a catchment area to teachers and healthcare workers, is subsequently applied to generate a Multivariate Road Index. This Index is used to assign higher maintenance priority to roads within the Basic Access Road Network that provide more people with better access to services. The relatively limited incidence of Basic Access Roads indicates that authorities could maintain the entire estimated network without exhausting the available road budget before practical economic considerations get any purchase. Despite this fact, a final case study modelling exercise is performed for the Namakwa District Municipality to demonstrate the extent to which optimal relocation of schools and healthcare facilities could minimise the Basic Access Road Network and thereby release budget for investment in roads that best promote GDP growth.

Keywords: basic access roads, multivariate road index, road prioritisation, two-step floating catchment area method

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Authors: Bauer Peter, Murillo Jenny

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This paper investigates the bounds of achievable fuel efficiency improvements in engines due to cycling between two operating points assuming a series hybrid configuration . It is shown that for linear bsfc dependencies (as a function of power), cycling is only beneficial if the average power needs are smaller than the power at the optimal bsfc value. Exact expressions for the fuel efficiency gains relative to the constant output power case are derived. This asymptotic analysis is then extended to the case where transient losses due to a change in the operating point are also considered. The case of the boundary bsfc trajectory where constant power application and cycling yield the same fuel consumption.is investigated. It is shown that the boundary bsfc locations of the second non-optimal operating points is hyperbolic. The analysis of the boundary case allows to evaluate whether for a particular engine, cycling can be beneficial. The introduced concepts are illustrated through a number of real world examples, i.e. large production Diesel engines in series hybrid configurations.

Keywords: cycling, efficiency, bsfc, series hybrid, diesel, operating point

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Authors: Zahid O. Alibrahim, Craig D. Williams, Clive L. Roberts

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The study area (Ecton mining area) is located in the southern part of the Peak District in Derbyshire, England. It is bounded by the River Manifold from the west. This area has been mined for a long period. As a result, huge amounts of potentially toxic metals were released into the surrounding area and are most likely to be a significant source of heavy metal contamination to the local soil, water and vegetation. In order to appraise the potential heavy metal pollution in this area, 37 topsoil samples (5-20 cm depth) were collected and analysed for their total content of Cu, Pb, Zn, Mn, Cr, Ni and V using ICP (Inductively Coupled Plasma) optical emission spectroscopy. Multivariate Geospatial analyses using the GIS technique were utilised to draw geochemical maps of the metals of interest over the study area. A few hotspot points, areas of elevated concentrations of metals, were specified, which are presumed to be the results of anthropogenic activities. In addition, the soil’s environmental quality was evaluated by calculating the Mullers’ Geoaccumulation index (I geo), which suggests that the degree of contamination of the investigated heavy metals has the following trend: Pb > Zn > Cu > Mn > Ni = Cr = V. Furthermore, the potential ecological risk, using the enrichment factor (EF), was also specified. On the basis of the calculated amount or the EF, the levels of pollution for the studied metals in the study area have the following order: Pb>Zn>Cu>Cr>V>Ni>Mn.

Keywords: enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, GIS, heavy metals, multivariate analysis

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Authors: Brouri Adil, Giri Fouad

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The problem of identifying Wiener-Hammerstein systems is addressed in the presence of two linear subsystems of structure totally unknown. Presently, the nonlinear element is allowed to be noninvertible. The system identification problem is dealt by developing a two-stage frequency identification method such a set of points of the nonlinearity are estimated first. Then, the frequency gains of the two linear subsystems are determined at a number of frequencies. The method involves Fourier series decomposition and only requires periodic excitation signals. All involved estimators are shown to be consistent.

Keywords: Wiener-Hammerstein systems, Fourier series expansions, frequency identification, automation science

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Authors: Irakli Javakhishvili, Tamara Tsutsunava, Giorgi Beridze

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The Caucasus is a component of the Mediterranean collision belt. The Dizi series is situated within the Greater Caucasian region of the Caucasus and crops out in the core of the Svaneti anticlinorium. The series was formed in the continental slope conditions on the southern passive margin of the small ocean basin. The Dizi series crops out on about 560 square km with the thickness 2000-2200 m. The rocks are faunally dated from the Devonian to the Triassic inclusive. The series is composed of terrigenous phyllitic schists, sandstones, quartzite aleurolites and lenses and interlayers of marbleized limestones. During the early Cimmerian orogeny, they underwent regional metamorphism of chlorite-sericite subfacies of greenschist facies. Typical minerals of metapelites are chlorite, sericite, augite, quartz, and tourmaline, but of basic rocks - actinolite, fibrolite, prehnite, calcite, and chlorite are developed. Into the Dizi series, polyphase intrusions of gabbros, diorites, quartz-diorites, syenite-diorites, syenites, and granitoids are intruded. Their K-Ar age dating (176-165Ma) points out that their formation corresponds to the Bathonian orogeny. The Dizi series is well-studied geologically, but very complicated processes of its regional and contact metamorphisms are insufficiently investigated. The aim of the authors was a detailed study of contact metamorphism processes of the series rocks. Investigations were accomplished applying the following methodologies: finding of key sections, a collection of material, microscopic study of samples, microprobe and structural analysis of minerals and X-ray determination of elements. The Dizi series rocks formed under the influence of the Bathonian magmatites on metapelites and carbonate-enriched rocks. They are represented by quartz, biotite, sericite, graphite, andalusite, muscovite, plagioclase, corundum, cordierite, clinopyroxene, hornblende, cummingtonite, actinolite, and tremolite bearing hornfels, marbles, and skarns. The contact metamorphism aureole reaches 350 meters. Biotite is developed only in contact-metamorphosed rocks and is a rather informative index mineral. In metapelites, biotite is formed as a result of the reaction between phengite, chlorite, and leucoxene, but in basites, it replaces actinolite or actinolite-hornblende. To study the compositional regularities of biotites, they were investigated from both - metapelites and metabasites. In total, biotite from the basites is characterized by an increased of titanium in contrast to biotite from metapelites. Biotites from metapelites are distinguished by an increased amount of aluminum. In biotites an increased amount of titanium and aluminum is observed as they approximate the contact, while their magnesia content decreases. Metapelite biotites are characterized by an increased amount of alumina in aluminum octahedrals, in contrast to biotite of the basites. In biotites of metapelites, the amount of tetrahedric aluminum is 28–34%, octahedral - 15–26%, and in basites tetrahedral aluminum is 28–33%, and octahedral 7–21%. As a result of the study of minerals, including biotite, from the contact-metamorphosed rocks of the Dizi series three exocontact zones with corresponding mineral assemblages were identified. It was established that contact metamorphism in the aureole of the Dizi series intrusions is going on at a significantly higher temperature and lower pressure than the regional metamorphism preceding the contact metamorphism.

Keywords: biotite, contact metamorphism, Dizi series, the Greater Caucasus

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Authors: Raana Babadi Fathipour

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Strict prerequisites of logical diaries united ought to demonstrate the exploratory information is (in)significant from the statistical point of view and has driven a soak increment within the utilization and advancement of the factual program. It is essential that the utilization of numerical and measurable strategies, counting chemometrics and many other factual methods/algorithms in nourishment science and innovation has expanded steeply within the final 20 a long time. Computational apparatuses accessible can be utilized not as it were to run factual investigations such as univariate and bivariate tests as well as multivariate calibration and improvement of complex models but also to run reenactments of distinctive scenarios considering a set of inputs or essentially making expectations for particular information sets or conditions. Conducting a fast look within the most legitimate logical databases (Pubmed, ScienceDirect, Scopus), it is conceivable to watch that measurable strategies have picked up a colossal space in numerous regions.

Keywords: food science, food technology, food safety, computational tools

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Authors: Maria V. Morozova, Yulia V. Emelyanova, Anastasia A. Levina, Elena S. Buyanova, Zoya A. Mikhaylovskaya, Sofia A. Petrova

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The solid solutions of lanthanum niobates substituted by yttrium, bismuth and tungsten were synthesized. The structure of the solid solutions is either LaNbO4-based monoclinic or BiNbO4-based triclinic. The series where niobium is substituted by tungsten on B site reveals phase-modulated structure. The values of cell parameters decrease with increasing the dopant concentration for all samples except the tungsten series although the latter show higher total conductivity.

Keywords: impedance spectroscopy, LaNbO4, lanthanum ortho-niobates, solid electrolyte

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Authors: Weiju Zhou, Alex Hopkins, Ruoling Chen

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Background: China has increased the gap in income between richer and poorer over the past 40 years, and the number of deaths from people with angina has been rising. It is unclear whether socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with increased mortality in older people with angina. Methods: Data from a cohort study of 2,380 participants aged ≥ 65 years, who were randomly recruited from 5-province urban communities were examined in China. The cohort members were interviewed to record socio-demographic and risk factors and document doctor-diagnosed angina at baseline and were followed them up in 3-10 years, including monitoring vital status. Multivariate Cox regression models were employed to examine all-cause mortality in relation to low SES. Results: The cohort follow-up identified 373 deaths occurred; 41 deaths in 208 angina patients. Compared to participants without angina (n=2,172), patients with angina had increased mortality (multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.41, 95% CI 1.01-1.97). Within angina patients, the risk of mortality increased with low satisfactory income (2.51, 1.08-5.85) and having financial problem (4.00, 1.07-15.00), but significantly with levels of education and occupation. In non-angina participants, none of these four SES indicators were associated with mortality. There was a significant interaction effect between angina and low satisfactory income on mortality. Conclusions: In China, having low income and financial problem increase mortality in older people with angina. Strategies to improve economic circumstances in older people could help reduce inequality in angina survival.

Keywords: angina, mortality, older people, socio-economic status

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Authors: Aman Berhe, Camille Guinaudeau, Claude Barras

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In order to facilitate information seeking in large collections of multimedia documents with long and progressive content (such as broadcast news or TV series), one can extract the semantic links that exist between semantically coherent parts of documents, i.e., scenes. The links can then create a coherent collection of scenes from which it is easier to perform content analysis, topic extraction, or information retrieval. In this paper, we focus on TV series structuring and propose two approaches for scene linking at different levels of granularity (episode and season): a fuzzy online clustering technique and a graph-based community detection algorithm. When evaluated on the two first seasons of the TV series Game of Thrones, we found that the fuzzy online clustering approach performed better compared to graph-based community detection at the episode level, while graph-based approaches show better performance at the season level.

Keywords: multimedia collection structuring, progressive content, scene linking, fuzzy clustering, community detection

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

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Authors: Valeria Abreu Minero, Edward Barker, Hannah Dickson, Francois Husson, Sandra Flynn, Jennifer Shaw

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify offender typologies based on aspects of the offenders’ psychopathology and their associations with crime scene behaviours using data derived from the National Confidential Enquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health concerning homicides in England and Wales committed by offenders in contact with mental health services in the year preceding the offence (n=759). Design/methodology/approach – The authors used multiple correspondence analysis to investigate the interrelationships between the variables and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to identify offender typologies. Variables describing: the offender’s mental health history; the offenders’ mental state at the time of offence; characteristics useful for police investigations; and patterns of crime scene behaviours were included. Findings – Results showed differences in the offender’s histories in relation to their crime scene behaviours. Further, analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychosis and depression. Analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychotic and depressive. Practical implications – These typologies may assist the police during homicide investigations by: furthering their understanding of the crime or likely suspect; offering insights into crime patterns; provide advice as to what an offender’s offence behaviour might signify about his/her mental health background; findings suggest information concerning offender psychopathology may be useful for offender profiling purposes in cases of homicide offenders with schizophrenia, depression and comorbid diagnosis of personality disorder and alcohol/drug dependence. Originality/value – Empirical studies with an emphasis on offender profiling have almost exclusively focussed on the inference of offender demographic characteristics. This study provides a first step in the exploration of offender psychopathology and its integration to the multivariate analysis of offence information for the purposes of investigative profiling of homicide by identifying the dominant patterns of mental illness within homicidal behaviour.

Keywords: offender profiling, mental illness, psychopathology, multivariate analysis, homicide, crime scene analysis, crime scene behviours, investigative advice

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Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

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Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

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Authors: Arnaud Nougues

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This paper describes a two-stage methodology derived from internal model control (IMC) for tuning a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller for levels or other integrating processes in an industrial environment. Focus is the ease of use and implementation speed which are critical for an industrial application. Tuning can be done with minimum effort and without the need for time-consuming open-loop step tests on the plant. The first stage of the method applies to levels only: the vessel residence time is calculated from equipment dimensions and used to derive a set of preliminary proportional-integral (PI) settings with IMC. The second stage, re-tuning in closed-loop, applies to levels as well as other integrating processes: a tuning correction mechanism has been developed based on a series of closed-loop simulations with model errors. The tuning correction is done from a simple closed-loop step test and the application of a generic correlation between observed overshoot and integral time correction. A spin-off of the method is that an estimate of the vessel residence time (levels) or open-loop process gain (other integrating process) is obtained from the closed-loop data.

Keywords: closed-loop model identification, IMC-PID tuning method, integrating process control, on-line PID tuning adaptation

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Michael Granado

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The French philosopher Gaston Bachelard’s philosophy of time is articulated in his two works on the subject, the Intuition of the Instant (1932) and his The Dialectic of Duration (1936). Both works present a systematic methodology predicated upon the assumption that our understanding of time has radically changed as a result of Einstein and subsequently needs to be reimagined. Bachelard makes a major distinction in his discussion of time: 1. Time as it is (physical time), 2. Time as we experience it (phenomenological time). This paper will focus on the second distinction, phenomenological time, and explore the connections between Bachelard’s work and contemporary psychology. Several aspects of Bachelard’s philosophy of time nicely complement our current understanding of memory and self and clarify how the self relates to experienced time. Two points, in particular, stand out; the first is the relative nature of subjective time, and the second is the implications of subjective time in the formation of the narrative self. Bachelard introduces two philosophical concepts to explain these points: rhythmanalysis and reverie. By exploring these concepts, it will become apparent that there is an undeniable link between memory, self, and time. Through the use of narrative self, the individual connects and links memories and time together to form a sense of personal identity.

Keywords: Gaston Bachelard, memory, self, time

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Swastika Roshni, Paras Nath, Alok Kalla

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Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) is one of the commercially important species of tuna in the North Pacific region. Despite the long history of albacore fisheries in the Pacific, its ecological characteristics are not sufficiently understood. The effects of changing climate on numerous commercially and ecologically important fish species including albacore tuna have been documented over the past decades. The objective of this study was to explore and elucidate the relationship of environmental variables with the stock parameters of albacore tuna. The relationship of the North Pacific albacore tuna recruitment (R), spawning stock biomass (SSB) and recruits per spawning biomass (RPS) from 1970 to 2012 with the environmental factors of sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific warm pool index (PWI) was construed. SST and PDO were used as independent variables with SSB to construct stock reproduction models for R and RPS as they showed most significant relationship with the dependent variables. ENSO and PWI were excluded due to collinearity effects with SST and PDO. Model selections were based on R2 values, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and significant parameter estimates at p<0.05. Models with single independent variables of SST, PDO, ENSO and PWI were also constructed to illuminate their individual effect on albacore R and RPS. From the results it can be said that SST and PDO resulted in the most significant models for reproducing North Pacific albacore tuna R and RPS time series. SST has the highest impact on albacore R and RPS when comparing models with single environmental variables. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to incorporate the findings into their albacore tuna management plans for the North Pacific Oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, El Niño southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

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Background: Avian influenza, more commonly known as Bird flu, is a viral zoonotic respiratory disease stemming from various species of poultry, including pets and migratory birds. Researchers have purported that the accessibility of health information online, in addition to the low-cost data collection methods the internet provides, has revolutionized the methods in which epidemiological and disease surveillance data is utilized. This paper examines the feasibility of using internet data sources, such as Twitter and livestock forums, for the early detection of the avian flu outbreak, through the use of text mining algorithms and social network analysis. Methods: Social media mining was conducted on Twitter between the period of 01/01/2021 to 31/12/2021 via the Twitter API in Python. The results were filtered firstly by hashtags (#avianflu, #birdflu), word occurrences (avian flu, bird flu, H5N1), and then refined further by location to include only those results from within the UK. Analysis was conducted on this text in a time-series manner to determine keyword frequencies and topic modeling to uncover insights in the text prior to a confirmed outbreak. Further analysis was performed by examining clinical signs (e.g., swollen head, blue comb, dullness) within the time series prior to the confirmed avian flu outbreak by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). Results: The increased search results in Google and avian flu-related tweets showed a correlation in time with the confirmed cases. Topic modeling uncovered clusters of word occurrences relating to livestock biosecurity, disposal of dead birds, and prevention measures. Conclusions: Text mining social media data can prove to be useful in relation to analysing discussed topics for epidemiological surveillance purposes, especially given the lack of applied research in the veterinary domain. The small sample size of tweets for certain weekly time periods makes it difficult to provide statistically plausible results, in addition to a great amount of textual noise in the data.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, avian influenza, social media

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Authors: Liaqat Ali, Khalid Farooq, Shafieullah Khan, Nasir Orakzai, Qudratullah

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Objectives: To determine the risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin in complicated urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: It is an analytical study that was conducted in the department of Urology (Team ‘C’) at Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Peshawar from 1st June 2012 till 31st December 2012. Total numbers of 100 patients with complicated UTI was selected in the study. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were performed for the detection of risk factors. All the data was recorded on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: The mean age of the patient was 55.6 years (Range 3-82 years). 62 patients were male while 38 patients were female. 66 isolates of E-Coli were found sensitive to ciprofloxacin while 34 isolates were found Resistant for ciprofloxacin. Using multivariate analysis and linear regression, an increasing age above 50 (p=0.002) History of urinary catheterization especially for bladder outflow obstruction (p=0.001) and previous multiple use of ciprofloxacin (p=0.001) and poor brand of ciprofloxacin were found to be independent risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin. Conclusion: UTI is common illness across the globe with increasing trend of antimicrobial resistance for ciprofloxacin against E Coli in complicated UTI. The risk factors for emerging resistance are increasing age, urinary catheterization and multiple use and poor brand of ciprofloxacin.

Keywords: urinary tract infection, ciprofloxacin, urethral catheterization, antimicrobial resistance

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Authors: Fouad Berrabeh, Sabir Messalti

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The performances of the photovoltaic systems are very dependent on different conditions, such as solar irradiation, temperature, etc. Therefore, it is very important to provide detailed studies for different cases in order to provide continuously power, so the photovoltaic system must be properly sized. This paper presents the modelling and simulation of the photovoltaic cell using single diode model. I-V characteristics and P-V characteristics are presented and it verified at different conditions (irradiance effect, temperature effect, series resistance effect).

Keywords: photovoltaic cell, BP SX 150 BP solar photovoltaic module, irradiance effect, temperature effect, series resistance effect, I–V characteristics, P–V characteristics

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Authors: Maryam Mosleh, Mahmood Otadi

Abstract:

The hybrid differential equations have a wide range of applications in science and engineering. In this paper, the homotopy analysis method (HAM) is applied to obtain the series solution of the hybrid differential equations. Using the homotopy analysis method, it is possible to find the exact solution or an approximate solution of the problem. Comparisons are made between improved predictor-corrector method, homotopy analysis method and the exact solution. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy number, parametric form of a fuzzy number, fuzzy integrodifferential equation, homotopy analysis method

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Authors: Nora Gavira Duron, Cinthya Moreda Gonzalez-Ortega, Reyna Susana Garcia Ruiz

Abstract:

This paper objective is to analyze the mathematics performance in the Learning Evaluation National Plan (PLANEA for its Spanish initials: Plan Nacional para la Evaluación de los Aprendizajes), applied to Mexican students who are enrolled in the last elementary-school year over the 2017-2018 academic year. Such test was conducted nationwide in 3,573 schools, using a sample of 108,083 students, whose average in mathematics, on a scale of 0 to 100, was 45.6 points. 75% of the sample analyzed did not reach the sufficiency level (60 points). It should be noted that only 2% got a 90 or higher score result. The performance is analyzed while considering whether there are differences in gender, marginalization level, public or private school enrollment, parents’ academic background, and living-with-parents situation. Likewise, this variable impact (among other variables) on school performance by gender is evaluated, considering multivariate logistic (Logit) regression analysis. The results show there are no significant differences in mathematics performance regarding gender in elementary school; nevertheless, the impact exerted by mothers who studied at least high school is of great relevance for students, particularly for girls. Other determining variables are students’ resilience, their parents’ economic status, and the fact they attend private schools, strengthened by the mother's education.

Keywords: multivariate regression analysis, academic performance, learning evaluation, mathematics result per gender

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Authors: Suganya Chandrababu, Dhundy Bastola

Abstract:

Like in the gut, the subgingival microbiota plays a crucial role in oral hygiene, health, and cariogenic diseases. Human activities like diet, antibiotics, and periodontal treatments alter the bacterial communities, metabolism, and functions in the oral cavity, leading to a dysbiotic state and changes in the plaques of orthodontic patients. Fixed periodontal appliances hinder oral hygiene and cause changes in the dental plaques influencing the subgingival microbiota. However, the microbial species’ diversity and complexity pose a great challenge in understanding the taxa’s community distribution patterns and their role in oral health. In this research, we analyze the subgingival microbial samples from individuals with fixed dental appliances (metal/clear) using an in silico approach. We employ exploratory hypothesis-driven multivariate and regression analysis to shed light on the microbial community and its functional fluctuations due to dental appliances used and identify risks associated with complex disease phenotypes. Our findings confirm the changes in oral microbiota composition due to the presence and type of fixed orthodontal devices. We identified seven main periodontic pathogens, including Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, and Firmicutes, whose abundances were significantly altered due to the presence and type of fixed appliances used. In the case of metal braces, the abundances of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, Fusobacteria, Candidatus saccharibacteria, and Spirochaetes significantly increased, while the abundance of Firmicutes and Actinobacteria decreased. However, in individuals With clear braces, the abundance of Bacteroidetes and Candidatus saccharibacteria increased. The highest abundance value (P-value=0.004 < 0.05) was observed with Bacteroidetes in individuals with the metal appliance, which is associated with gingivitis, periodontitis, endodontic infections, and odontogenic abscesses. Overall, the bacterial abundances decrease with clear type and increase with metal type of braces. Regression analysis further validated the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) results, supporting the hypothesis that the presence and type of the fixed oral appliances significantly alter the bacterial abundance and composition.

Keywords: oral microbiota, statistical analysis, fixed or-thodontal appliances, bacterial abundance, multivariate analysis, regression analysis

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Authors: L. Angiuli, L. Trizio, R. Giua, A. Digilio, M. Tutino, P. Dambruoso, F. Mazzone, C. M. Placentino

Abstract:

In the winter of 2014 a series of measurements were performed to evaluate the behavior of real-time PAHs and black carbon analyzers in a coke oven plant located in Taranto, a city of Southern Italy. Data were collected both insides than outside the plant, at air quality monitoring sites. Contemporary measures of PM2.5 and PM1 were performed. Particle-bound PAHs were measured by two methods: (1) aerosol photoionization using an Ecochem PAS 2000 analyzer, (2) PM2.5 and PM1 quartz filter collection and analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Black carbon was determined both in real-time by Magee Aethalometer AE22 analyzer than by semi-continuous Sunset Lab EC/OC instrument. Detected PM2.5 and PM1 levels were higher inside than outside the plant while PAHs real-time values were higher outside than inside. As regards PAHs, inside the plant Ecochem PAS 2000 revealed concentrations not significantly different from those determined on the filter during low polluted days, but at increasing concentrations the automated instrument underestimated PAHs levels. At the external site, Ecochem PAS 2000 real-time concentrations were steadily higher than those on the filter. In the same way, real-time black carbon values were constantly lower than EC concentrations obtained by Sunset EC/OC in the inner site, while outside the plant real-time values were comparable to Sunset EC values. Results showed that in a coke plant real-time analyzers of PAHs and black carbon in the factory configuration provide qualitative information, with no accuracy and leading to the underestimation of the concentration. A site specific calibration is needed for these instruments before their installation in high polluted sites.

Keywords: black carbon, coke oven plant, PAH, PAS, aethalometer

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Authors: Kamal Ray, Tapati Bhattacharya

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Private use of public office for private gain could be a tentative definition of corruption and most distasteful event of corruption is that it is not there, nor that it is pervasive, but it is socially acknowledged in the global economy, especially in the developing nations. We attempted to assess the interrelationship between the Corruption perception index (CPI) and the principal components of governance indicators as per World Bank like Control of Corruption (CC), rule of law (RL), regulatory quality (RQ) and government effectiveness (GE). Our empirical investigation concentrates upon the degree of reflection of governance indicators upon the CPI in order to single out the most powerful corruption-generating indicator in the selected countries. We have collected time series data on above governance indicators such as CC, RL, RQ and GE of the selected eleven countries from the year of 1996 to 2012 from World Bank data set. The countries are USA, UK, France, Germany, Greece, China, India, Japan, Thailand, Brazil, and South Africa. Corruption Perception Index (CPI) of the countries mentioned above for the period of 1996 to 2012is also collected. Graphical method of simple line diagram against the time series data on CPI is applied for quick view for the relative positions of different trend lines of different nations. The correlation coefficient is enough to assess primarily the degree and direction of association between the variables as we get the numerical data on governance indicators of the selected countries. The tool of Granger Causality Test (1969) is taken into account for investigating causal relationships between the variables, cause and effect to speak of. We do not need to verify stationary test as length of time series is short. Linear regression is taken as a tool for quantification of a change in explained variables due to change in explanatory variable in respect of governance vis a vis corruption. A bilateral positive causal link between CPI and CC is noticed in UK, index-value of CC increases by 1.59 units as CPI increases by one unit and CPI rises by 0.39 units as CC rises by one unit, and hence it has a multiplier effect so far as reduction in corruption is concerned in UK. GE causes strongly to the reduction of corruption in UK. In France, RQ is observed to be a most powerful indicator in reducing corruption whereas it is second most powerful indicator after GE in reducing of corruption in Japan. Governance-indicator like GE plays an important role to push down the corruption in Japan. In China and India, GE is proactive as well as influencing indicator to curb corruption. The inverse relationship between RL and CPI in Thailand indicates that ongoing machineries related to RL is not complementary to the reduction of corruption. The state machineries of CC in S. Africa are highly relevant to reduce the volume of corruption. In Greece, the variations of CPI positively influence the variations of CC and the indicator like GE is effective in controlling corruption as reflected by CPI. All the governance-indicators selected so far have failed to arrest their state level corruptions in USA, Germany and Brazil.

Keywords: corruption perception index, governance indicators, granger causality test, regression

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Authors: Eva Tolmeijer, Emmanuelle Peters, Veena Kumari, Liam Mason

Abstract:

Cognitive behavioral therapy for psychosis (CBTp) is effective in many but not all patients, making it important to better understand the factors that determine treatment outcomes. To date, no studies have examined whether neuroimaging can make clinically useful predictions about who will respond to CBTp. To this end, we used machine learning methods that make predictions about symptom improvement at the individual patient level. Prior to receiving CBTp, 22 patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia completed a social-affective processing task during functional MRI. Multivariate pattern analysis assessed whether treatment response could be predicted by brain activation responses to facial affect that was either socially threatening or prosocial. The resulting models did significantly predict symptom improvement, with distinct multivariate signatures predicting psychotic (r=0.54, p=0.01) and affective (r=0.32, p=0.05) symptoms. Psychotic symptom improvement was accurately predicted from relatively focal threat-related activation across hippocampal, occipital, and temporal regions; affective symptom improvement was predicted by a more dispersed profile of responses to prosocial affect. These findings enrich our understanding of the neurobiological underpinning of treatment response. This study provides a foundation that will hopefully lead to greater precision and tailoring of the interventions offered to patients.

Keywords: cognitive behavioral therapy, machine learning, psychosis, schizophrenia

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Authors: Winncy Du, Jeremy Nguyen, Harpinder Dhillon, Reinardus Justin Halim, Clayton Haske, Trent Hughes, Marissa Ortiz, Rozy Saini

Abstract:

Stroke often causes death or cerebro-vascular (CV) brain damage. Most patients with CV brain damage lost their motor control on their limbs. This paper focuses on developing a reliable, safe, and non-invasive EEG-based robot-assistant stroke rehabilitation system to help stroke survivors to rapidly restore their motor control functions for their limbs. An electroencephalogram (EEG) recording device (EPOC Headset) and was used to detect a patient’s brain activities. The EEG signals were then processed, classified, and interpreted to the motion intentions, and then converted to a series of robot motion commands. A six-axis articulated robot (AdeptSix 300) was employed to provide the intended motions based on these commends. To ensure the EEG device, the computer, and the robot can communicate to each other, an Arduino microcontroller is used to physically execute the programming codes to a series output pins’ status (HIGH or LOW). Then these “hardware” commends were sent to a 24 V relay to trigger the robot’s motion. A lookup table for various motion intensions and the associated EEG signal patterns were created (through training) and installed in the microcontroller. Thus, the motion intention can be direct determined by comparing the EEG patterns obtaibed from the patient with the look-up table’s EEG patterns; and the corresponding motion commends are sent to the robot to provide the intended motion without going through feature extraction and interpretation each time (a time-consuming process). For safety sake, an extender was designed and attached to the robot’s end effector to ensure the patient is beyond the robot’s workspace. The gripper is also designed to hold the patient’s limb. The test results of this rehabilitation system show that it can accurately interpret the patient’s motion intension and move the patient’s arm to the intended position.

Keywords: brain waves, EEG sensor, motion control, robot-assistant stroke rehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 363