Search results for: forest fire fuel
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2874

Search results for: forest fire fuel

2454 Application of Random Forest Model in The Prediction of River Water Quality

Authors: Turuganti Venkateswarlu, Jagadeesh Anmala

Abstract:

Excessive runoffs from various non-point source land uses, and other point sources are rapidly contaminating the water quality of streams in the Upper Green River watershed, Kentucky, USA. It is essential to maintain the stream water quality as the river basin is one of the major freshwater sources in this province. It is also important to understand the water quality parameters (WQPs) quantitatively and qualitatively along with their important features as stream water is sensitive to climatic events and land-use practices. In this paper, a model was developed for predicting one of the significant WQPs, Fecal Coliform (FC) from precipitation, temperature, urban land use factor (ULUF), agricultural land use factor (ALUF), and forest land-use factor (FLUF) using Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model, a novel ensemble learning algorithm, can even find out advanced feature importance characteristics from the given model inputs for different combinations. This model’s outcomes showed a good correlation between FC and climate events and land use factors (R2 = 0.94) and precipitation and temperature are the primary influencing factors for FC.

Keywords: water quality, land use factors, random forest, fecal coliform

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2453 Integration of Multi Effect Desalination with Solid Oxide Fuel Cell/Gas Turbine Power Cycle

Authors: Mousa Meratizaman, Sina Monadizadeh, Majid Amidpour

Abstract:

One of the most favorable thermal desalination methods used widely today is Multi Effect Desalination. High energy consumption in this method causes coupling it with high temperature power cycle like gas turbine. This combination leads to higher energy efficiency. One of the high temperature power systems which have cogeneration opportunities is Solid Oxide Fuel Cell / Gas Turbine. Integration of Multi Effect Desalination with Solid Oxide Fuel Cell /Gas Turbine power cycle in a range of 300-1000 kW is considered in this article. The exhausted heat of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell /Gas Turbine power cycle is used in Heat Recovery Steam Generator to produce needed motive steam for Desalination unit. Thermodynamic simulation and parametric studies of proposed system are carried out to investigate the system performance.

Keywords: solid oxide fuel cell, thermodynamic simulation, multi effect desalination, gas turbine hybrid cycle

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2452 Conception of a Predictive Maintenance System for Forest Harvesters from Multiple Data Sources

Authors: Lazlo Fauth, Andreas Ligocki

Abstract:

For cost-effective use of harvesters, expensive repairs and unplanned downtimes must be reduced as far as possible. The predictive detection of failing systems and the calculation of intelligent service intervals, necessary to avoid these factors, require in-depth knowledge of the machines' behavior. Such know-how needs permanent monitoring of the machine state from different technical perspectives. In this paper, three approaches will be presented as they are currently pursued in the publicly funded project PreForst at Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences. These include the intelligent linking of workshop and service data, sensors on the harvester, and a special online hydraulic oil condition monitoring system. Furthermore the paper shows potentials as well as challenges for the use of these data in the conception of a predictive maintenance system.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, condition monitoring, forest harvesting, forest engineering, oil data, hydraulic data

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2451 Current Status of Nitrogen Saturation in the Upper Reaches of the Kanna River, Japan

Authors: Sakura Yoshii, Masakazu Abe, Akihiro Iijima

Abstract:

Nitrogen saturation has become one of the serious issues in the field of forest environment. The watershed protection forests located in the downwind hinterland of Tokyo Metropolitan Area are believed to be facing nitrogen saturation. In this study, we carefully focus on the balance of nitrogen between load and runoff. Annual nitrogen load via atmospheric deposition was estimated to 461.1 t-N/year in the upper reaches of the Kanna River. Annual nitrogen runoff to the forested headwater stream of the Kanna River was determined to 184.9 t-N/year, corresponding to 40.1% of the total nitrogen load. Clear seasonal change in NO3-N concentration was still observed. Therefore, watershed protection forest of the Kanna River is most likely to be in Stage-1 on the status of nitrogen saturation.

Keywords: atmospheric deposition, nitrogen accumulation, denitrification, forest ecosystems

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2450 Microbial Fuel Cells in Waste Water Treatment and Electricity Generation

Authors: Rajalaxmi N., Padma Bhat, Pooja Garag, Pooja N. M., V. S. Hombalimath

Abstract:

Microbial fuel cell (MFC) is the advancement of science that aims at utilizing the oxidizing potential of bacteria for wastewater treatment and production of bio-hydrogen and bio-electricity. Salt-bridge is the economic alternative to highly priced proton-exchange membrane in the construction of a microbial fuel cell. This paper studies the electricity generating capacity of E.coli and Clostridium sporogenes in microbial fuel cells (MFCs). Unlike most of MFC research, this targets the long term goals of renewable energy production and wastewater treatment. In present study the feasibility and potential of bioelectricity production from different wastewater was observed. Different wastewater was primarily treated which were confirmed by the COD tests which showed reduction of COD. We observe that the electricity production of MFCs decreases almost linearly after 120 hrs. The sewage wastewater containing Clostridium sporogenes showed bioelectricity production up to 188mV with COD removal of 60.52%. Sewage wastewater efficiently produces bioelectricity and this also helpful to reduce wastewater pollution load.

Keywords: microbial fuel cell, bioelectricity, wastewater, salt bridge, COD

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2449 Classification of Forest Types Using Remote Sensing and Self-Organizing Maps

Authors: Wanderson Goncalves e Goncalves, José Alberto Silva de Sá

Abstract:

Human actions are a threat to the balance and conservation of the Amazon forest. Therefore the environmental monitoring services play an important role as the preservation and maintenance of this environment. This study classified forest types using data from a forest inventory provided by the 'Florestal e da Biodiversidade do Estado do Pará' (IDEFLOR-BIO), located between the municipalities of Santarém, Juruti and Aveiro, in the state of Pará, Brazil, covering an area approximately of 600,000 hectares, Bands 3, 4 and 5 of the TM-Landsat satellite image, and Self - Organizing Maps. The information from the satellite images was extracted using QGIS software 2.8.1 Wien and was used as a database for training the neural network. The midpoints of each sample of forest inventory have been linked to images. Later the Digital Numbers of the pixels have been extracted, composing the database that fed the training process and testing of the classifier. The neural network was trained to classify two forest types: Rain Forest of Lowland Emerging Canopy (Dbe) and Rain Forest of Lowland Emerging Canopy plus Open with palm trees (Dbe + Abp) in the Mamuru Arapiuns glebes of Pará State, and the number of examples in the training data set was 400, 200 examples for each class (Dbe and Dbe + Abp), and the size of the test data set was 100, with 50 examples for each class (Dbe and Dbe + Abp). Therefore, total mass of data consisted of 500 examples. The classifier was compiled in Orange Data Mining 2.7 Software and was evaluated in terms of the confusion matrix indicators. The results of the classifier were considered satisfactory, and being obtained values of the global accuracy equal to 89% and Kappa coefficient equal to 78% and F1 score equal to 0,88. It evaluated also the efficiency of the classifier by the ROC plot (receiver operating characteristics), obtaining results close to ideal ratings, showing it to be a very good classifier, and demonstrating the potential of this methodology to provide ecosystem services, particularly in anthropogenic areas in the Amazon.

Keywords: artificial neural network, computational intelligence, pattern recognition, unsupervised learning

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2448 Evaluation of Fuel Properties of Six Tropical Hardwood Timber Species for Briquettes

Authors: Stephen J. Mitchual, Kwasi Frimpong-Mensah, Nicholas A. Darkwa

Abstract:

The fuel potential of six tropical hardwood species namely: Triplochiton scleroxylon, Ceiba pentandra, Aningeria robusta, Terminalia superba, Celtis mildbreadii and Piptadenia africana were studied. Properties studied include the species density, gross calorific value, volatile matter, ash, organic carbon, N, H, S, Cu, Pb, As and Cd content. Fuel properties were determined using standard laboratory methods. The result indicates that the Gross Calorific Value (GCV) of the species ranged from 20.16 to 22.22 MJ/kg and they slightly varied from each other. Additionally, the GCV of the biomass materials were higher than that of other biomass materials like; wheat straw, rice straw, maize straw and sugar cane. The ash and volatile matter content varied from 0.6075 to 5.0407%, and 75.23% to 83.70% respectively. The overall rating of the properties of the six biomass materials suggest that Piptadenia africana has the best fuel property to be used as briquettes and Aningeria robusta the worse. This study therefore suggests that a holistic assessment of a biomass material needs to be done before selecting it for fuel purpose.

Keywords: ash content, briquette, calorific value, elemental composition, species, volatile matter

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2447 Analysis of Fuel Adulteration Consequences in Bangladesh

Authors: Mahadehe Hassan

Abstract:

In most countries manufacturing, trading and distribution of gasoline and diesel fuels belongs to the most important sectors of national economy. For Bangladesh, a robust, well-functioning, secure and smartly managed national fuel distribution chain is an essential precondition for achieving Government top priorities in development and modernization of transportation infrastructure, protection of national environment and population health as well as, very importantly, securing due tax revenue for the State Budget. Bangladesh is a developing country with complex fuel supply network, high fuel taxes incidence and – till now - limited possibilities in application of modern, automated technologies for Government national fuel market control. Such environment allows dishonest physical and legal persons and organized criminals to build and profit from illegal fuel distribution schemes and fuel illicit trade. As a result, the market transparency and the country attractiveness for foreign investments, law-abiding economic operators, national consumers, State Budget and the Government ability to finance development projects, and the country at large suffer significantly. Research shows that over 50% of retail petrol stations in major agglomerations of Bangladesh sell adulterated fuels and/or cheat customers on the real volume of the fuel pumped into their vehicles. Other forms of detected fuel illicit trade practices include misdeclaration of fuel quantitative and qualitative parameters during internal transit and selling of non-declared and smuggled fuels. The aim of the study is to recommend the implementation of a National Fuel Distribution Integrity Program (FDIP) in Bangladesh to address and resolve fuel adulteration and illicit trade problems. The program should be customized according to the specific needs of the country and implemented in partnership with providers of advanced technologies. FDIP should enable and further enhance capacity of respective Bangladesh Government authorities in identification and elimination of all forms of fuel illicit trade swiftly and resolutely. FDIP high-technology, IT and automation systems and secure infrastructures should be aimed at the following areas (1) fuel adulteration, misdeclaration and non-declaration; (2) fuel quality and; (3) fuel volume manipulation at retail level. Furthermore, overall concept of FDIP delivery and its interaction with the reporting and management systems used by the Government shall be aligned with and support objectives of the Vision 2041 and Smart Bangladesh Government programs.

Keywords: fuel adulteration, octane, kerosene, diesel, petrol, pollution, carbon emissions

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2446 Healthcare Fire Disasters: Readiness, Response and Resilience Strategies: A Real-Time Experience of a Healthcare Organization of North India

Authors: Raman Sharma, Ashok Kumar, Vipin Koushal

Abstract:

Healthcare facilities are always seen as places of haven and protection for managing the external incidents, but the situation becomes more difficult and challenging when such facilities themselves are affected from internal hazards. Such internal hazards are arguably more disruptive than external incidents affecting vulnerable ones, as patients are always dependent on supportive measures and are neither in a position to respond to such crisis situation nor do they know how to respond. The situation becomes more arduous and exigent to manage if, in case critical care areas like Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and Operating Rooms (OR) are convoluted. And, due to these complexities of patients’ in-housed there, it becomes difficult to move such critically ill patients on immediate basis. Healthcare organisations use different types of electrical equipment, inflammable liquids, and medical gases often at a single point of use, hence, any sort of error can spark the fire. Even though healthcare facilities face many fire hazards, damage caused by smoke rather than flames is often more severe. Besides burns, smoke inhalation is primary cause of fatality in fire-related incidents. The greatest cause of illness and mortality in fire victims, particularly in enclosed places, appears to be the inhalation of fire smoke, which contains a complex mixture of gases in addition to carbon monoxide. Therefore, healthcare organizations are required to have a well-planned disaster mitigation strategy, proactive and well prepared manpower to cater all types of exigencies resulting from internal as well as external hazards. This case report delineates a true OR fire incident in Emergency Operation Theatre (OT) of a tertiary care multispecialty hospital and details the real life evidence of the challenges encountered by OR staff in preserving both life and property. No adverse event was reported during or after this fire commotion, yet, this case report aimed to congregate the lessons identified of the incident in a sequential and logical manner. Also, timely smoke evacuation and preventing the spread of smoke to adjoining patient care areas by opting appropriate measures, viz. compartmentation, pressurisation, dilution, ventilation, buoyancy, and airflow, helped to reduce smoke-related fatalities. Henceforth, precautionary measures may be implemented to mitigate such incidents. Careful coordination, continuous training, and fire drill exercises can improve the overall outcomes and minimize the possibility of these potentially fatal problems, thereby making a safer healthcare environment for every worker and patient.

Keywords: healthcare, fires, smoke, management, strategies

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2445 Community Perception towards the Major Drivers for Deforestation and Land Degradation of Choke Afro-alpine and Sub-afro alpine Ecosystem, Northwest Ethiopia

Authors: Zelalem Teshager

Abstract:

The Choke Mountains have several endangered and endemic wildlife species and provide important ecosystem services. Despite their environmental importance, the Choke Mountains are found in dangerous conditions. This raised the need for an evaluation of the community's perception of deforestation and its major drivers and suggested possible solutions in the Choke Mountains of northwestern Ethiopia. For this purpose, household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions were used. A total sample of 102 informants was used for this survey. A purposive sampling technique was applied to select the participants for in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Both qualitative and quantitative data analyses were used. Computation of descriptive statistics such as mean, percentages, frequency, tables, figures, and graphs was applied to organize, analyze, and interpret the study. This study assessed smallholder agricultural land expansion, Fuel wood collection, population growth; encroachment, free grazing, high demand of construction wood, unplanned resettlement, unemployment, border conflict, lack of a strong forest protecting system, and drought were the serious causes of forest depletion reported by local communities. Loss of land productivity, Soil erosion, soil fertility decline, increasing wind velocity, rising temperature, and frequency of drought were the most perceived impacts of deforestation. Most of the farmers have a holistic understanding of forest cover change. Strengthening forest protection, improving soil and water conservation, enrichment planting, awareness creation, payment for ecosystem services, and zero grazing campaigns were mentioned as possible solutions to the current state of deforestation. Applications of Intervention measures, such as animal fattening, beekeeping, and fruit production can contribute to decreasing the deforestation causes and improve communities’ livelihood. In addition, concerted efforts of conservation will ensure that the forests’ ecosystems contribute to increased ecosystem services. The major drivers of deforestation should be addressed with government intervention to change dependency on forest resources, income sources of the people, and institutional set-up of the forestry sector. Overall, further reduction in anthropogenic pressure is urgent and crucial for the recovery of the afro-alpine vegetation and the interrelated endangered wildlife in the Choke Mountains.

Keywords: choke afro-alpine, deforestation, drivers, intervention measures, perceptions

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2444 Analysis of Force Convection in Bandung Triga Reactor Core Plate Types Fueled Using Coolod-N2

Authors: K. A. Sudjatmi, Endiah Puji Hastuti, Surip Widodo, Reinaldy Nazar

Abstract:

Any pretensions to stop the production of TRIGA fuel elements by TRIGA reactor fuel elements manufacturer should be anticipated by the operating agency of TRIGA reactor to replace the cylinder type fuel element with plate type fuel element, that available on the market. This away was performed the calculation on U3Si2Al fuel with uranium enrichment of 19.75% and a load level of 2.96 gU/cm3. Maximum power that can be operated on free convection cooling mode at the BANDUNG TRIGA reactor fuel plate was 600 kW. This study has been conducted thermalhydraulic characteristic calculation model of the reactor core power 2MW. BANDUNG TRIGA reactor core fueled plate type is composed of 16 fuel elements, 4 control elements and one irradiation facility which is located right in the middle of the core. The reactor core is cooled using a pump which is already available with flow rate 900 gpm. Analysis on forced convection cooling mode with flow from the top down from 10%, 20%, 30% and so on up to a 100% rate of coolant flow. performed using the COOLOD-N2 code. The calculations result showed that the 2 MW power with inlet coolant temperature at 37 °C and cooling rate percentage of 50%, then the coolant temperature, maximum cladding and meat respectively 64.96 oC, 124.81 oC, and 125.08 oC, DNBR (departure from nucleate boiling ratio)=1.23 and OFIR (onset of flow instability ratio)=1:00. The results are expected to be used as a reference for determining the power and cooling rate level of the BANDUNG TRIGA reactor core plate types fueled.

Keywords: TRIGA, COOLOD-N2, plate type fuel element, force convection, thermal hydraulic characteristic

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2443 Reliability Analysis of a Fuel Supply System in Automobile Engine

Authors: Chitaranjan Sharma

Abstract:

The present paper deals with the analysis of a fuel supply system in an automobile engine of a four wheeler which is having both the option of fuel i.e. PETROL and CNG. Since CNG is cheaper than petrol so the priority is given to consume CNG as compared to petrol. An automatic switch is used to start petrol supply at the time of failure of CNG supply. Using regenerative point technique with Markov renewal process, the reliability characteristics which are useful to system designers are obtained.

Keywords: reliability, redundancy, repair time, transition, probability, regenerative points, markov renewal, process

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2442 Supply, Trade-offs, and Synergies Estimation for Regulating Ecosystem Services of a Local Forest

Authors: Jang-Hwan Jo

Abstract:

The supply management of ecosystem services of local forests is an essential issue as it is linked to the ecological welfare of local residents. This study aims to estimate the supply, trade-offs, and synergies of local forest regulating ecosystem services using a land cover classification map (LCCM) and a forest types map (FTM). Rigorous literature reviews and Expert Delphi analysis were conducted using the detailed variables of 1:5,000 LCCM and FTM. Land-use scoring method and Getis-Ord Gi* Analysis were utilized on detailed variables to propose a method for estimating supply, trade-offs, and synergies of the local forest regulating ecosystem services. The analysis revealed that the rank order (1st to 5th) of supply of regulating ecosystem services was Erosion prevention, Air quality regulation, Heat island mitigation, Water quality regulation, and Carbon storage. When analyzing the correlation between defined services of the entire city, almost all services showed a synergistic effect. However, when analyzing locally, trade-off effects (Heat island mitigation – Air quality regulation, Water quality regulation – Air quality regulation) appeared in the eastern and northwestern forest areas. This suggests the need to consider not only the synergy and trade-offs of the entire forest between specific ecosystem services but also the synergy and trade-offs of local areas in managing the regulating ecosystem services of local forests. The study result can provide primary data for the stakeholders to determine the initial conditions of the planning stage when discussing the establishment of policies related to the adjustment of the supply of regulating ecosystem services of the forests with limited access. Moreover, the study result can also help refine the estimation of the supply of the regulating ecosystem services with the availability of other forms of data.

Keywords: ecosystem service, getis ord gi* analysis, land use scoring method, regional forest, regulating service, synergies, trade-offs

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2441 Wireless Information Transfer Management and Case Study of a Fire Alarm System in a Residential Building

Authors: Mohsen Azarmjoo, Mehdi Mehdizadeh Koupaei, Maryam Mehdizadeh Koupaei, Asghar Mahdlouei Azar

Abstract:

The increasing prevalence of wireless networks in our daily lives has made them indispensable. The aim of this research is to investigate the management of information transfer in wireless networks and the integration of renewable solar energy resources in a residential building. The focus is on the transmission of electricity and information through wireless networks, as well as the utilization of sensors and wireless fire alarm systems. The research employs a descriptive approach to examine the transmission of electricity and information on a wireless network with electric and optical telephone lines. It also investigates the transmission of signals from sensors and wireless fire alarm systems via radio waves. The methodology includes a detailed analysis of security, comfort conditions, and costs related to the utilization of wireless networks and renewable solar energy resources. The study reveals that it is feasible to transmit electricity on a network cable using two pairs of network cables without the need for separate power cabling. Additionally, the integration of renewable solar energy systems in residential buildings can reduce dependence on traditional energy carriers. The use of sensors and wireless remote information processing can enhance the safety and efficiency of energy usage in buildings and the surrounding spaces.

Keywords: renewable energy, intelligentization, wireless sensors, fire alarm system

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2440 Degradation of Irradiated UO2 Fuel Thermal Conductivity Calculated by FRAPCON Model Due to Porosity Evolution at High Burn-Up

Authors: B. Roostaii, H. Kazeminejad, S. Khakshournia

Abstract:

The evolution of volume porosity previously obtained by using the existing low temperature high burn-up gaseous swelling model with progressive recrystallization for UO2 fuel is utilized to study the degradation of irradiated UO2 thermal conductivity calculated by the FRAPCON model of thermal conductivity. A porosity correction factor is developed based on the assumption that the fuel morphology is a three-phase type, consisting of the as-fabricated pores and pores due to intergranular bubbles whitin UO2 matrix and solid fission products. The predicted thermal conductivity demonstrates an additional degradation of 27% due to porosity formation at burn-up levels around 120 MWd/kgU which would cause an increase in the fuel temperature accordingly. Results of the calculations are compared with available data.

Keywords: irradiation-induced recrystallization, matrix swelling, porosity evolution, UO₂ thermal conductivity

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2439 Land Cover Classification Using Sentinel-2 Image Data and Random Forest Algorithm

Authors: Thanh Noi Phan, Martin Kappas, Jan Degener

Abstract:

The currently launched Sentinel 2 (S2) satellite (June, 2015) bring a great potential and opportunities for land use/cover map applications, due to its fine spatial resolution multispectral as well as high temporal resolutions. So far, there are handful studies using S2 real data for land cover classification. Especially in northern Vietnam, to our best knowledge, there exist no studies using S2 data for land cover map application. The aim of this study is to provide the preliminary result of land cover classification using Sentinel -2 data with a rising state – of – art classifier, Random Forest. A case study with heterogeneous land use/cover in the eastern of Hanoi Capital – Vietnam was chosen for this study. All 10 spectral bands of 10 and 20 m pixel size of S2 images were used, the 10 m bands were resampled to 20 m. Among several classified algorithms, supervised Random Forest classifier (RF) was applied because it was reported as one of the most accuracy methods of satellite image classification. The results showed that the red-edge and shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands play an important role in land cover classified results. A very high overall accuracy above 90% of classification results was achieved.

Keywords: classify algorithm, classification, land cover, random forest, sentinel 2, Vietnam

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2438 Fire Effects on Soil Properties of Meshchera Plain, Russia

Authors: Anna Tsibart, Timur Koshovskii

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The properties of soils affected by the wildfires of 2002, 2010, and 2012 in Meshchera plain (Moscow region, Russia) were considered in a current research. The formation of ash horizons instead of organic peat horizons was detected both in histosols and histic podzols. The increase of pH and magnetic susceptibility was observed in soil profiles. Significant burning out of organic matter was observed, but already two years after the fire the new stage of organic matter accumulation started.

Keywords: wildfires, peat soils, organic matter, Meshchera plain

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2437 Role of Non-Timber Forest Products in Local Livelihood and Household Economies in Resource-Rich vs. Resource Poor Forest Area of Mizoram

Authors: Uttam Kumar Sahoo, K. Lalhmingsangi, J. H. Lalremruati

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Non-timber forest resources particularly the high-value, low volume NTFPs has drawn interest as an activity all over the world during the past three decades that could raise standards of living for the rural folks while being compatible with forest conservation. This is particularly true for the people living in and around or fringes of protected areas. However, the economics that plays between resources’ stock and its utilization by the humans is yet to be validated and evaluated logistically. A study was therefore designed to understand the linkages between resource (especially NTFPs) availability and their utilization, existing threats to this biodiversity conservation and the role of NTFPs within the livelihood systems of those households that are most directly involved in creating conservation threats. About 25% of the households were sampled from the two sites ‘resource-rich’ and ‘resource poor’ area of Dampa Tiger Reserve (Western boundary). Our preliminary findings suggest that the collection of relatively high-volume and low value NTFPs such as fuelwood, fodder has caused degradation of forest resources while the low-volume and high-value NTFPs such as wild edible mushrooms, vegetables, other specialty food products, inputs to crafts, medicinal plants have resulted into species promotion/conservation through their domestication in traditional agroforestry systems including home gardens and/or collateral protection of the Tiger Reserve. It is thus suggested that proper assessment of these biodiversities, their direct and indirect valuation, market and non-market profits etc be carried out in greater details which would result in prescribing effective management plans around the park.

Keywords: household economy, livelihood strategies, non-timber forest products, species conservation

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2436 Using Machine Learning to Enhance Win Ratio for College Ice Hockey Teams

Authors: Sadixa Sanjel, Ahmed Sadek, Naseef Mansoor, Zelalem Denekew

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Collegiate ice hockey (NCAA) sports analytics is different from the national level hockey (NHL). We apply and compare multiple machine learning models such as Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Neural Networks to predict the win ratio for a team based on their statistics. Data exploration helps determine which statistics are most useful in increasing the win ratio, which would be beneficial to coaches and team managers. We ran experiments to select the best model and chose Random Forest as the best performing. We conclude with how to bridge the gap between the college and national levels of sports analytics and the use of machine learning to enhance team performance despite not having a lot of metrics or budget for automatic tracking.

Keywords: NCAA, NHL, sports analytics, random forest, regression, neural networks, game predictions

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2435 Household's Willingness to Pay for Safe Non-Timber Forest Products at Morikouali-Ye Community Forest in Cameroon

Authors: Eke Balla Sophie Michelle

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Forest provides a wide range of environmental goods and services among which, biodiversity or consumption goods and constitute public goods. Despite the importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) in sustaining livelihood and poverty smoothening in rural communities, they are highly depleted and poorly conserved. Yokadouma is a town where NTFPs is a renewable resource in active exploitation. It has been found that such exploitation is done in the same conditions as other localities that have experienced a rapid depletion of their NTFPs in destination to cities across Cameroon, Central Africa, and overseas. Given these realities, it is necessary to access the consequences of this overexploitation through negative effects on both the population and the environment. Therefore, to enhance participatory conservation initiatives, this study determines the household’s willingness to pay in community forest (CF) of Morikouali-ye, eastern region of Cameroon, for sustainable exploitation of NTFPs using contingent valuation method (CVM) through two approaches, one parametric (Logit model) and the other non-parametric (estimator of the Turnbull lower bound). The results indicate that five species are the most collected in the study area: Irvingia gabonensis, the Ricinodendron heudelotii, Gnetum, the Jujube and bark, their sale contributes significantly to 41 % of total household income. The average willingness to pay through the Logit model and the Turnbull estimator is 6845.2861 FCFA and 4940 FCFA respectively per household per year with a social cost of degradation estimated at 3237820.3253 FCFA years. The probability to pay increases with income, gender, number of women in the household, age, the commercial activity of NTFPs and decreases with the concept of sustainable development.

Keywords: non timber forest product, contingent valuation method, willingness to pay, sustainable development

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2434 Antagonistic Potential of Epiphytic Bacteria Isolated in Kazakhstan against Erwinia amylovora, the Causal Agent of Fire Blight

Authors: Assel E. Molzhigitova, Amankeldi K. Sadanov, Elvira T. Ismailova, Kulyash A. Iskandarova, Olga N. Shemshura, Ainur I. Seitbattalova

Abstract:

Fire blight is a very harmful for commercial apple and pear production quarantine bacterial disease. To date, several different methods have been proposed for disease control, including the use of copperbased preparations and antibiotics, which are not always reliable or effective. The use of bacteria as biocontrol agents is one of the most promising and eco-friendly alternative methods. Bacteria with protective activity against the causal agent of fire blight are often present among the epiphytic microorganisms of the phyllosphere of host plants. Therefore, the main objective of our study was screening of local epiphytic bacteria as possible antagonists against Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of fire blight. Samples of infected organs of apple and pear trees (shoots, leaves, fruits) were collected from the industrial horticulture areas in various agro-ecological zones of Kazakhstan. Epiphytic microorganisms were isolated by standard and modified methods on specific nutrient media. The primary screening of selected microorganisms under laboratory conditions to determine the ability to suppress the growth of Erwinia amylovora was performed by agar-diffusion-test. Among 142 bacteria isolated from the fire blight host plants, 5 isolates, belonging to the genera Bacillus, Lactobacillus, Pseudomonas, Paenibacillus and Pantoea showed higher antagonistic activity against the pathogen. The diameters of inhibition zone have been depended on the species and ranged from 10 mm to 48 mm. The maximum diameter of inhibition zone (48 mm) was exhibited by B. amyloliquefaciens. Less inhibitory effect was showed by Pantoea agglomerans PA1 (19 mm). The study of inhibitory effect of Lactobacillus species against E. amylovora showed that among 7 isolates tested only one (Lactobacillus plantarum 17M) demonstrated inhibitory zone (30 mm). In summary, this study was devoted to detect the beneficial epiphytic bacteria from plants organs of pear and apple trees due to fire blight control in Kazakhstan. Results obtained from the in vitro experiments showed that the most efficient bacterial isolates are Lactobacillus plantarum 17M, Bacillus amyloliquefaciens MB40, and Pantoea agglomerans PA1. These antagonists are suitable for development as biocontrol agents for fire blight control. Their efficacies will be evaluated additionally, in biological tests under in vitro and field conditions during our further study.

Keywords: antagonists, epiphytic bacteria, Erwinia amylovora, fire blight

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2433 Impact of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem Services: In situ Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in Tropical Forests

Authors: Rajendra Kumar Pandey

Abstract:

Forest genetic resources not only represent regional biodiversity but also have immense value as the wealth for securing livelihood of poor people. These are vulnerable to ecological due to depletion/deforestation and /or impact of climate change. These resources of various plant categories are vulnerable on the floor of natural tropical forests, and leading to the threat on the growth and development of future forests. More than 170 species, including NTFPs, are in critical condition for their survival in natural tropical forests of Central India. Forest degradation, commensurate with biodiversity loss, is now pervasive, disproportionately affecting the rural poor who directly depend on forests for their subsistence. Looking ahead the interaction between forest and water, soil, precipitation, climate change, etc. and its impact on biodiversity of tropical forests, it is inevitable to develop co-operation policies and programmes to address new emerging realities. Forests ecosystem also known as the 'wealth of poor' providing goods and ecosystem services on a sustainable basis, are now recognized as a stepping stone to move poor people beyond subsistence. Poverty alleviation is the prime objective of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, environmental sustainability including other MDGs, is essential to ensure successful elimination of poverty and well being of human society. Loss and degradation of ecosystem are the most serious threats to achieving development goals worldwide. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005) was an attempt to identify provisioning and regulating cultural and supporting ecosystem services to provide livelihood security of human beings. Climate change may have a substantial impact on ecological structure and function of forests, provisioning, regulations and management of resources which can affect sustainable flow of ecosystem services. To overcome these limitations, policy guidelines with respect to planning and consistent research strategy need to be framed for conservation and sustainable development of forest genetic resources.

Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystem services, sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation

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2432 Modeling the Reliability of a Fuel Cell and the Influence of Mechanical Aspects on the Production of Electrical Energy

Authors: Raed Kouta

Abstract:

A fuel cell is a multi-physical system. Its electrical performance depends on chemical, electrochemical, fluid, and mechanical parameters. Many studies focus on physical and chemical aspects. Our study contributes to the evaluation of the influence of mechanical aspects on the performance of a fuel cell. This study is carried out as part of a reliability approach. Reliability modeling allows to consider the uncertainties of the incoming parameters and the probabilistic modeling of the outgoing parameters. The fuel cell studied is the one often used in land, sea, or air transport. This is the Low-Temperature Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC). This battery can provide the required power level. One of the main scientific and technical challenges in mastering the design and production of a fuel cell is to know its behavior in its actual operating environment. The study proposes to highlight the influence on the production of electrical energy: Mechanical design and manufacturing parameters and their uncertainties (Young module, GDL porosity, permeability, etc.). The influence of the geometry of the bipolar plates is also considered. An experimental design is proposed with two types of materials as well as three geometric shapes for three joining pressures. Other experimental designs are also proposed for studying the influence of uncertainties of mechanical parameters on cell performance. - Mechanical (static, dynamic) and thermal (tightening - compression, vibrations (road rolling and tests on vibration-climatic bench, etc.) loads. This study is also carried out according to an experimental scheme on a fuel cell system for vibration loads recorded on a vehicle test track with three temperatures and three expected performance levels. The work will improve the coupling between mechanical, physical, and chemical phenomena.

Keywords: fuel cell, mechanic, reliability, uncertainties

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2431 Investigation of the Effect of Phosphorous on the Flame Retardant Polyacrylonitrile Nanofiber

Authors: Mustafa Yılmaz, Ahmet Akar, Nesrin Köken, Nilgün Kızılcan

Abstract:

Commercially available poly(acrylonitrile-co-vinyl acetate) P(AN-VA) or poly(acrylonitrile-co-methyl acrylate) P(AN-MA) are not satisfactory to meet the demand in flame and fire-resistance. In this work, vinylphosphonic acid is used during polymerization of acrylonitrile, vinyl acetate, methacrylic acid to produce fire-retardant polymers. These phosphorus containing polymers are successfully spun in the form of nanofibers. Properties such as water absorption of polymers are also determined and compared with commercial polymers.

Keywords: flame retardant, nanofiber, polyacrylonitrile, phosphorous compound, membrane

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
2430 Using Combination of Sets of Features of Molecules for Aqueous Solubility Prediction: A Random Forest Model

Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

Abstract:

Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, random forest, molecular descriptors, maccs keys

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2429 Optimization of Machine Learning Regression Results: An Application on Health Expenditures

Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

Abstract:

Machine learning regression methods are recommended as an alternative to classical regression methods in the existence of variables which are difficult to model. Data for health expenditure is typically non-normal and have a heavily skewed distribution. This study aims to compare machine learning regression methods by hyperparameter tuning to predict health expenditure per capita. A multiple regression model was conducted and performance results of Lasso Regression, Random Forest Regression and Support Vector Machine Regression recorded when different hyperparameters are assigned. Lambda (λ) value for Lasso Regression, number of trees for Random Forest Regression, epsilon (ε) value for Support Vector Regression was determined as hyperparameters. Study results performed by using 'k' fold cross validation changed from 5 to 50, indicate the difference between machine learning regression results in terms of R², RMSE and MAE values that are statistically significant (p < 0.001). Study results reveal that Random Forest Regression (R² ˃ 0.7500, RMSE ≤ 0.6000 ve MAE ≤ 0.4000) outperforms other machine learning regression methods. It is highly advisable to use machine learning regression methods for modelling health expenditures.

Keywords: machine learning, lasso regression, random forest regression, support vector regression, hyperparameter tuning, health expenditure

Procedia PDF Downloads 202
2428 Estimation of Fuel Cost Function Characteristics Using Cuckoo Search

Authors: M. R. Al-Rashidi, K. M. El-Naggar, M. F. Al-Hajri

Abstract:

The fuel cost function describes the electric power generation-cost relationship in thermal plants, hence, it sheds light on economical aspects of power industry. Different models have been proposed to describe this relationship with the quadratic function model being the most popular one. Parameters of second order fuel cost function are estimated in this paper using cuckoo search algorithm. It is a new population based meta-heuristic optimization technique that has been used in this study primarily as an accurate estimation tool. Its main features are flexibility, simplicity, and effectiveness when compared to other estimation techniques. The parameter estimation problem is formulated as an optimization one with the goal being minimizing the error associated with the estimated parameters. A case study is considered in this paper to illustrate cuckoo search promising potential as a valuable estimation and optimization technique.

Keywords: cuckoo search, parameters estimation, fuel cost function, economic dispatch

Procedia PDF Downloads 554
2427 CFD Analysis of Ammonia/Hydrogen Combustion Performance under Partially Premixed and Non-premixed Modes with Varying Inlet Characteristics

Authors: Maria Alekxandra B. Sison, Reginald C. Mallare, Joseph Albert M. Mendoza

Abstract:

Ammonia (NH₃) is the alternative carbon-free fuel of the future for its promising applications. Investigations on NH₃-fuel blends recommend using hydrogen (H₂) to increase the heating value of NH3, promote combustion performance, and improve NOx efflux mitigation. To further examine the effects of this concept, the study analyzed the combustion performance, in terms of turbulence, combustion efficiency (CE), and NOx emissions, of NH3/fuel with variations of combustor diameter ratio, H2 fuel mole fraction, and fuel mass flow rate (ṁ). The simulations were performed using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling to represent a non-premixed (NP) and partially premixed (PP) combustion under a two-dimensional ultra-low NOx Rich-Burn, Quick-Quench, Lean-Burn (RQL) combustor. Governed by the Detached Eddy Simulation model, it was found that the diameter ratio greatly affects the turbulence in PP and NP mode, whereas ṁ in PP should be prioritized when increasing CE. The NOx emission is minimal during PP combustion, but NP combustion suggested modifying ṁ to achieve higher CE and Reynolds number without sacrificing the NO generation from the reaction.

Keywords: combustion efficiency, turbulence, dual-stage combustor, NOx emission

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2426 Assessment of Exhaust Emissions and Fuel Consumption from Means of Transport in Agriculture

Authors: Jerzy Merkisz, Piotr Lijewski, Pawel Fuc, Maciej Siedlecki, Andrzej Ziolkowski, Sylwester Weymann

Abstract:

The paper discusses the problem of load transport using farm tractors and road tractor units. This type of carriage of goods is often done with farm vehicles. The tests were performed with the PEMS equipment (Portable Emission Measurement System) under actual traffic conditions. The vehicles carried a load of 20000 kg. This research method is one of the most desired because it provides reliable information on the actual vehicle emissions and fuel consumption (carbon balance method). For the tests, a route was selected that simulated a trip from a small town to a food-processing facility located in a city. The analysis of the obtained results gave a clear answer as to what vehicles need to be used for the carriage of this type of cargo in terms of exhaust emissions and fuel consumption.

Keywords: emission, transport, fuel consumption, PEMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 500
2425 Fuel Economy of Electrical Energy in the City Bus during Japanese Test Procedure

Authors: Piotr Kacejko, Lukasz Grabowski, Zdzislaw Kaminski

Abstract:

This paper discusses a model of fuel consumption and on-board electricity generation. Rapid changes in speed result in a constantly changing kinetic energy accumulated in a bus mass and an increased fuel consumption due to hardly recuperated kinetic energy. The model is based on the results achieved from chassis dynamometer, airport and city street researches. The verified model was applied to simulate the on-board electricity generation during the Japanese JE05 Emission Test Cycle. The simulations were performed for several values of vehicle mass and electrical load applied to on-board devices. The research results show that driving dynamics has an impact on a consumption of fuel to drive alternators.

Keywords: city bus, heavy duty vehicle, Japanese JE05 test cycle, power generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 192