Search results for: cost modelling

Authors: Pawel Skruch, Marek Dlugosz

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The paper starts with a general model of the temperature dynamics in buildings. The modelling approach relies on thermodynamics, in particular heat transfer, principles. The model considers heat loses by conduction and ventilation and internal heat gains. The parameters of the model can be determined uniquely from the geometry of the building and from thermal properties of construction materials. The model is presented using state space notation and this form is used in the control design procedure. A sliding surface is defined by the system output and the desired trajectory. The control law is designed to force the trajectory of the system from any initial condition to the sliding surface in finite time. The trajectory of the system after reaching the sliding surface remains on it. A simulation example is included to verify the approach and to demonstrate the achievable performance improvement by the proposed solution in the temperature control in buildings.

Keywords: modelling, building, temperature dynamics, sliding-mode control, sliding surface

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Authors: Saurabh Gupta, Vanshdeep Parmar, Sri Harsha Reddy Yelly, Michele Baker, Elizabeth Bigler, Kunhee Choi

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It is known that the adoption of solar powered LED highway lighting systems or sensory LED highway lighting systems can dramatically reduce energy consumption by 55 percent when compared to conventional on-grid High Pressure Sodium (HPS) lamps that are widely applied to most highways. However, an initial high installation cost for building the infrastructure of solar photovoltaic devices hampers a wider adoption of such technologies. This research aims to examine currently available state-of-the-art solar photovoltaic and sensory technologies, identify major obstacles, and analyze each technology to create a benchmarking metrics from the benefit-cost analysis perspective. The on-grid HPS lighting systems will serve as the baseline for this study to compare it with other lighting alternatives such as solar and sensory LED lighting systems. This research will test the validity of the research hypothesis that alternative LED lighting systems produce more favorable benefit-cost ratios and the added initial investment costs are recouped by the savings in the operation and maintenance cost. The payback period of the excess investment and projected savings over the life-cycle of the selected lighting systems will be analyzed by utilizing the concept of Net Present Value (NPV). Researchers believe that if this study validates the research hypothesis, it can promote a wider adoption of alternative lighting systems that will eventually save millions of taxpayer dollars in the long-run.

Keywords: lighting systems, sensory and solar PV, benefit cost analysis, net present value

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Authors: Shawn Michael Condon

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Current research on teaching expressivity mainly involves instrumentalists. This study focuses on choral singers’ preference of priming techniques based on four methods for teaching expressivity. 112 choral singers answered the survey about their preferred methods for priming expressivity (vocal modelling, using metaphor, tapping into felt emotions, and drawing on past experiences) in three conditions (active, passive, and instructor). Analysis revealed higher preference for drawing on past experience among more experienced singers. The most preferred technique in the passive and instructor roles was vocal modelling, with metaphors and tapping into felt emotions favoured in an active role. Priming techniques are often used in combination with other methods to enhance singing technique or expressivity and are dependent upon the situation, repertoire, and the preferences of the instructor and performer.

Keywords: emotion, expressivity, performance, singing, teaching

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Authors: Roman Asatryan

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The decision-making processes in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) among firms in general and airlines in particular have to do with the benefits that accrue through those investments. The crux of the matter is not whether to invest in CSR or not, but rather, how firms can quantify the benefits derived from such investments. This paper analyzes the cost benefit adjustment strategies for firms in the airline industry in their CSR strategy adoption and implementation. The adjustment strategies identified will enable firms in the airline industry to have a basis for determining the worth of such CSR investments. This paper discusses the cost and benefit analysis model in order to understand the ways airlines can reduce costs and increase returns on CSR, or balance the cost and benefits. The analysis from this study points to the fact that economic concepts especially the CBA are useful, though they are not without challenges. The challenge arises when it is problematic to express the real impact of the externality in monetary terms. The use of rational maximization of the gains may seem to be a rather optimistic goal mainly because of environmental variability, perceptual uncertainty, and imperfect knowledge about the potential externality. This paper concludes that the CBA model gives a basic understanding of the motivations for investing in intangible assets like CSR. Consequently, it sets the tone for formulating relevant hypothesis in empirical studies in investment in CSR in particular and other intangible assets in business operations.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, corporate social responsibility, airline industry

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Authors: Y. Jin, N. Zhang, X. Luo, W. Zhang

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China with annual increasing 0.5-0.6 billion squares city residence has brought in enormous energy consumption by HVAC facilities and other appliances. In this regard, governments and researchers are encouraging renewable energy like solar energy, geothermal energy using in houses. However, high cost of equipment and low energy conversion result in a very low acceptable to residents. So what’s the equilibrium point of eco-feedback to reach economic benefit and thermal comfort? That is the main question should be answered. In this paper, the objective is an on-site solar PV and heater house, which has been evaluated as a low energy building. Since HVAC system is considered as main energy consumption equipment, the residence with 24-hour monitoring system set to measure temperature, wind velocity and energy in-out value with no HVAC system for one month of summer and winter. Thermal comfort time period will be analyzed and confirmed; then the air-conditioner will be started within thermal discomfort time for the following one summer and winter month. The same data will be recorded to calculate the average energy consumption monthly for a purpose of whole day thermal comfort. Finally, two analysis work will be done: 1) Original building thermal simulation by computer at design stage with actual measured temperature after construction will be contrastive analyzed; 2) The cost of renewable energy facilities and power consumption converted to cost efficient rate to assess the feasibility of renewable energy input for residence. The results of the experiment showed that a certain deviation exists between actual measured data and simulated one for human thermal comfort, especially in summer period. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness is high for a house in targeting city Guilin now with at least 11 years of cost-covering. The conclusion proves that an eco-feedback of a low energy residence is never only consideration of its energy net value, but also the cost efficiency that is the critical factor to push renewable energy acceptable by the public.

Keywords: cost efficiency, eco-feedback, low energy residence, thermal comfort

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Authors: I.-A. Ciobotaru, I.-E. Ciobotaru, D.-I. Vaireanu

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Currently, an ascending trend of battery use may be observed, together with an increase of the generated amount of waste. Efforts have been focused on the recycling of batteries; however, extending their lifetime may be a more adequate alternative, and the development of such methods may prove to be more cost efficient as compared to recycling. In this context, this paper presents the analysis of a proposed process for the reconditioning of some lithium-ions batteries. The analysis is performed based on two criteria, the first one referring to the technical aspect of the reconditioning process and the second to the economic aspects. The main technical parameters taken into consideration are the values of capacitance and internal resistance of the lithium-ion batteries. The economic criterion refers to the evaluation of the efficiency of the reconditioning procedure reported to its total cost for the investigated lithium-ion batteries. Based on the cost analysis, one introduced a novel coefficient that correlates the efficiency of the aforementioned process and its corresponding costs. The reconditioning procedure for the lithium-ion batteries proposed in this paper proved to be valid, efficient, and with reasonable costs.

Keywords: cost assessment, lithium-ion battery, reconditioning coefficient, reconditioning procedure

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Authors: Tamara Trček Pečak, Andrej Mohar, Denis Trček

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This article investigates the latest technological means, which deploy smart structures that are based on (advanced) wireless sensors technologies and ubiquitous computing in general in order to support the above mentioned decision making. Based on two years of in-field research experiences it gives their analysis for these kinds of purposes and provides appropriate architectures and architectural solutions. Moreover, the directions for future research are stated, because these technologies are currently the most promising ones to enable cost-effective preservation of cultural heritage not only in uncontrolled places, but also in general.

Keywords: smart structures, wireless sensors, sensors networks, green computing, cultural heritage preservation, monitoring, cost effectiveness

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Authors: Saurav S. Rath, Birendra K. David

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Generic pharmaceutical industry has to operate in strict timelines of product development and scale-up from lab to plant. Hence, detailed product & process understanding and implementation of appropriate mechanistic modelling and Quality-by-design (QbD) approaches are imperative in the product life cycle. This work provides example cases of such efforts in topical dosage products. Topical products are typically in the form of emulsions, gels, thick suspensions or even simple solutions. The efficacy of such products is determined by characteristics like rheology and morphology. Defining, and scaling up the right manufacturing process with a given set of ingredients, to achieve the right product characteristics presents as a challenge to the process engineer. For example, the non-Newtonian rheology varies not only with CPPs and CMAs but also is an implicit function of globule size (CQA). Hence, this calls for various mechanistic models, to help predict the product behaviour. This paper focusses on such models obtained from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with population balance modelling (PBM) and constitutive models (like shear, energy density). In a special case of the use of high shear homogenisers (HSHs) for the manufacture of thick emulsions/gels, this work presents some findings on (i) scale-up algorithm for HSH using shear strain, a novel scale-up parameter for estimating mixing parameters, (ii) non-linear relationship between viscosity and shear imparted into the system, (iii) effect of hold time on rheology of product. Specific examples of how this approach enabled scale-up across 1L, 10L, 200L, 500L and 1000L scales will be discussed.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, morphology, quality-by-design, rheology

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Authors: Baris Can Yalcin

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Motion sensors have been commonly used as a valuable component in mechatronic systems, however, many mechatronic designs and applications that need motion sensors cost enormous amount of money, especially high-tech systems. Design of a software for communication protocol between data acquisition card and motion sensor is another issue that has to be solved. This study presents how to design a low cost motion data acquisition setup consisting of MPU 6050 motion sensor (gyro and accelerometer in 3 axes) and Arduino Mega2560 microcontroller. Design parameters are calibration of the sensor, identification and communication between sensor and data acquisition card, interpretation of data collected by the sensor.

Keywords: design, mechatronics, motion sensor, data acquisition

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Authors: James A. Adeyanju, John O. Olajide, Akinbode A. Adedeji

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A predictive mathematical model based on the fundamental principles of mass transfer was developed to simulate the moisture content and oil content during Deep-Fat Frying (DFF) process of dodo. The resulting governing equation, that is, partial differential equation that describes rate of moisture loss and oil uptake was solved numerically using explicit Finite Difference Technique (FDT). Computer codes were written in MATLAB environment for the implementation of FDT at different frying conditions and moisture loss as well as oil uptake simulation during DFF of dodo. Plantain samples were sliced into 5 mm thickness and fried at different frying oil temperatures (150, 160 and 170 ⁰C) for periods varying from 2 to 4 min. The comparison between the predicted results and experimental data for the validation of the model showed reasonable agreement. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and experimental values of moisture and oil transfer models ranging from 0.912 to 0.947 and 0.895 to 0.957, respectively. The predicted results could be further used for the design, control and optimization of deep-fat frying process.

Keywords: frying, moisture loss, modelling, oil uptake

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Authors: Zsanett Bahor, Cristina Nunes-Fonseca, Gillian L. Currie, Emily S. Sena, Lindsay D.G. Thomson, Malcolm R. Macleod

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Psychosis is ranked as the third most disabling medical condition in the world by the World Health Organization. Despite a substantial amount of research in recent years, available treatments are not universally effective and have a wide range of adverse side effects. Since many clinical drug candidates are identified through in vivo modelling, a deeper understanding of these models, and their strengths and limitations, might help us understand reasons for difficulties in psychosis drug development. To provide an unbiased summary of the preclinical psychosis literature we performed a systematic electronic search of PubMed for publications modelling a psychotic disorder in vivo, identifying 14,721 relevant studies. Double screening of 11,000 publications from this dataset so far established 2403 animal studies of psychosis, with the most common model being schizophrenia (95%). 61% of these models are induced using pharmacological agents. For all the models only 56% of publications test a therapeutic treatment. We propose a systematic review of these studies to assess the prevalence of reporting of measures to reduce risk of bias, and a meta-analysis to assess the internal and external validity of these animal models. Our findings are likely to be relevant to future preclinical studies of psychosis as this generation of strong empirical evidence has the potential to identify weaknesses, areas for improvement and make suggestions on refinement of experimental design. Such a detailed understanding of the data which inform what we think we know will help improve the current attrition rate between bench and bedside in psychosis research.

Keywords: animal models, psychosis, systematic review, schizophrenia

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Authors: Francis O. Iyoha, Daniel E. Gberevbie, Charles T. Iruonagbe, Matthew E. Egharevba

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Cost of governance in Nigeria has become a challenge to development and concern to practitioners and scholars alike in the field of business and social science research. It has been observed that it takes 70 percent of the nation’s revenue to maintain less than 20 percent of the Nigerian population that are public servants. Furthermore, it has been observed that on a consistent yearly basis, the recurrent expenditure of government from the national budget keeps rising, while capital expenditure meant for development keeps falling. The implication is that development is stagnated in the country. For instance, in the 2010 national budget of NGN4.60tn or USD28.75b, only NGN1.80tn or USD11.15b was set aside for capital expenditure. Also, in the 2013 national budget of NGN4.92tn or USD30.75b, only NGN1.50tn or USD9.38b was set aside for capital expenditure. Therefore, with the analysis of secondary data, this study examined the reasons for the high cost of governance in Nigeria. It observed that the high cost of governance in the country is in the interest of the ruling class, arising from their unethical behaviour – corrupt practices and the poor management of public resources. As a result, the study recommends the need to intensify the war against corruption and mismanagement of public resources by government officials as possible solution to overcome the high cost of governance in Nigeria. This could be achieved by strengthening the constitutional powers of the various anti-corruption agencies in the area of arrest, investigation and prosecution of offenders without the interference of the executive arm of government either at the local, state or federal level.

Keywords: cost of governance, capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure, unethical behavior, Nigeria

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Authors: Stephen Barnes, Ian Mills, Frances Cleary

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Augmented and virtual reality-based applications offer many benefits for the heritage and tourism sector. This technology provides a platform to showcase the regions of interest to people without the need for them to be physically present, which has had a positive impact on enticing tourists to visit those locations. However, the technology also provides the opportunity to present historical artefacts in a form that accurately represents their original, intended appearance. Three sites of interest were identified in the Lingaun Valley in South East Ireland, wherein virtual representations of site-specific artefacts of interest were created via a multidisciplinary team encompassing archaeology, art history, 3D modelling, design, and software development. The collated information has been presented to users via an augmented reality mobile-based application that provides information in an engaging manner that encourages an interest in history as well as visits to the sites in the Lingaun Valley.

Keywords: augmented reality, virtual heritage, 3D modelling, archaeology, virtual representation

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Authors: Liping Yang, Curran Crawford, Jr. Ren, Zhengyi Ren

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Considering the cost evaluation and the stress analysis, a fuzzy satisfactory optimization (FSO) method has been developed for a hybrid composite flywheel. To evaluate the cost, the cost coefficients of the flywheel components are obtained through calculating the weighted sum of the scores of the material manufacturability, the structure character, and the material price. To express the satisfactory degree of the energy, the cost, and the mass, the satisfactory functions are proposed by using the decline function and introducing a satisfactory coefficient. To imply the different significance of the objectives, the object weight coefficients are defined. Based on the stress analysis of composite material, the circumferential and radial stresses are considered into the optimization formulation. The simulations of the FSO method with different weight coefficients and storage energy density optimization (SEDO) method of a flywheel are contrasted. The analysis results show that the FSO method can satisfy different requirements of the designer and the FSO method with suitable weight coefficients can replace the SEDO method.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, fuzzy, optimization, stress analysis

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Authors: Jubee Varghese, Pouria Hafiz

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Increased use of lightweight concrete in the construction industry is mainly due to its reduction in the weight of the structural elements, which in turn reduces the cost of production, transportation, and the overall project cost. However, the structural application of these lightweight concrete structures is limited due to its reduced density. Hence, further investigations are in progress to study the effect of fiber inclusion in improving the mechanical properties of lightweight concrete. Incorporating structural steel fibers, in general, enhances the performance of concrete and increases its durability by minimizing its potential to cracking and providing crack arresting mechanism. In this research, Geometric and Materially Non-linear Analysis (GMNA) was conducted for Finite Element Modelling using a software known as ABAQUS, to investigate the structural behavior of lightweight concrete with and without the addition of steel fibers and shear reinforcement. 21 finite element models of beams were created to study the effect of steel fibers based on three main parameters; fiber volume fraction (Vf = 0, 0.5 and 0.75%), shear span to depth ratio (a/d of 2, 3 and 4) and ratio of area of shear stirrups to spacing (As/s of 0.7, 1 and 1.6). The models created were validated with the previous experiment conducted by H.K. Kang et al. in 2011. It was seen that the lightweight fiber reinforcement can replace the use of fiber reinforced normal weight concrete as structural elements. The effect of an increase in steel fiber volume fraction is dominant for beams with higher shear span to depth ratio than for lower ratios. The effect of stirrups in the presence of fibers was very negligible; however; it provided extra confinement to the cracks by reducing the crack propagation and extra shear resistance than when compared to beams with no stirrups.

Keywords: ABAQUS, beams, fiber-reinforced concrete, finite element, light weight, shear span-depth ratio, steel fibers, steel-fiber volume fraction

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Authors: Pardhasaradhi Gudla, Imanual A.

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The generated electrical power in offshore needs to be transmitted to grid which is located in onshore by using subsea cables. Long subsea cables produce reactive power, which should be compensated in order to limit transmission losses, to optimize the transmission capacity, and to keep the grid voltage within the safe operational limits. Installation cost of wind farm includes the structure design cost and electrical system cost. India has targeted to achieve 175GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 including offshore wind power generation. Due to sea depth is more in India, the installation cost will be further high when compared to European countries where offshore wind energy is already generating successfully. So innovations are required to reduce the offshore wind power project cost. This paper presents the optimized techniques to reduce the installation cost of offshore wind firm with respect to electrical transmission systems. This technical paper provides the techniques for increasing the current carrying capacity of subsea cable by decreasing the reactive power generation (capacitance effect) of the subsea cable. There are many methods for reactive power compensation in wind power plants so far in execution. The main reason for the need of reactive power compensation is capacitance effect of subsea cable. So if we diminish the cable capacitance of cable then the requirement of the reactive power compensation will be reduced or optimized by avoiding the intermediate substation at midpoint of the transmission network.

Keywords: offshore wind power, optimized techniques, power system, sub sea cable

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Authors: Muhammad Zafarullah Khan, Sumeera Abbasi

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The Farmers Field School (FFS) learning approach aims to improve knowledge of the farmers through integrated crop management and provide leadership in their decision making process. The study was conducted to assess the impact of FFS on vegetables production before and after FFS intervention in four villages of district Peshawar in cropping season 2012, by interviewing 80 FFS respondents, twenty from each selected village. It was observed from the study results that all the respondents were satisfied from the impact of FFS and they informed an increased in production in vegetables. It was further observed that after the implementation of FFS the sowing seed rate of tomato and cucumber were decreased from 0.185kg/kanal to 0.100 kg/ kanal and 0.120kg/kanal to 0.010kg/kanal where as the production of tomato and cucumber were increased from 8158.75kgs/kanal to 10302. 5kgs/kanal and 3230kgs/kanal to 5340kgs/kanal, respectively. The cost of agriculture inputs per kanal including seed cost, crop management, Farm Yard Manure, and weedicides in case of tomato were reduced by Rs.28, Rs. 3170, Rs.658and Rs 205 whereas in cucumber reduced by Rs.35, Rs.570, Rs 80 and Rs.430 respectively. Only fertilizers cost was increased by Rs. 2200 in case of tomato and Rs 465 in case of cucumber. Overall the cost was reduced to Rs 545 in tomato and Rs 490 in cucumber production.FFS provided a healthy vegetables and also reduced input cost by adopting integrated crop management. Therefore the promotion of FFS is needed to be planned for farmers to reduce cost of production, so that the more farmers should be benefited.

Keywords: impact, farmer field schools, vegetable production, Peshawar Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

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Authors: Manel Brichni, Abdelhak-Djamel Seriai

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Systems are increasingly complex. To reduce their complexity, an abstract view of the system can simplify its development. To overcome this problem, we propose a method to decompose systems into subsystems while reducing their coupling. These subsystems represent components. Consisting of an existing object-oriented systems, the main idea of our approach is based on modelling as graphs all entities of an oriented object source code. Such modelling is easy to handle, so we can apply restructuring algorithms based on graph metrics. The particularity of our approach consists in integrating in addition to standard metrics, such as coupling and cohesion, some graph metrics giving more precision during the components identication. To treat this problem, we relied on the ROMANTIC approach that proposed a component-based software architecture recovery from an object oriented system.

Keywords: software reengineering, software component and interfaces, metrics, graphs

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Authors: Agata Tomaszewska, Timothy Kamps, Stephan R. Turnock, Nicola Symonds

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Bob skeleton is a highly competitive sport in which an athlete reaches speeds up to 40 m/s sliding, head first, down an ice track. It is believed that the friction between the runners and ice significantly contributes to the amount of the total energy loss during a bob skeleton descent. There is only limited available experimental data regarding the friction of bob skeleton runners or indeed steel on the ice at high sliding speeds ( > 20 m/s). Testing methods used to investigate the friction of steel on ice in winter sports have been outlined, and their accuracy and repeatability discussed. A system thinking approach was used to investigate the runner-ice interaction during sliding and create concept designs of three ice tribometers. The operational envelope of the bob skeleton system has been defined through mathematical modelling. Designs of a drum, linear and inertia pin-on-disk tribometers were developed specifically for bob skeleton runner testing with the requirement of reaching up to 40 m/s speed and facilitate fresh ice sliding. The design constraints have been outline and the proposed solutions compared based on the ease of operation, accuracy and the development cost.

Keywords: bob skeleton, ice friction, high-speed tribometers, sliding friction

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Authors: Chika Catherine Ayogu

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Rehabilitation plays an important and integral part in the life of roadway rehabilitation management system. It is a systematic method for inspection and rating the roadway condition in a given area. The system performs a cost effective analysis of various maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. Finally the system prioritize and recommend roadway rehabilitation and maintenance to maximize results within a given budget amount. During execution of maintenance activity, the system also tracks labour, materials, equipment and cost for activities performed. The system implements physical assessment field inspection and rating of each street segment which is then entered into a database. The information is analyzed using a software, and provide recommendations and project future conditions. The roadway management system provides a deterioration curve for each segment based on input then assigns the most cost-effective maintenance strategy based on conditions, surface type and functional classification, and available budget. This paper investigates the roadway management system and its capabilities to assist in applying the right treatment to the right roadway at the right time so that expected service life of the roadway is extended as long as possible with acceptable cost.

Keywords: effectiveness, rehabilitation, roadway, software system

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Authors: R.M. Asyraf, A. Norazah, S.M. Khairuddin, B. Noraziah

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Designing a system at present requires a vital, challenging task; to ensure the design philosophy is maintained in economical ways. This paper perceived the value engineering (VE) approach applied in infrastructure works, namely stormwater drainage. This method is adopted in line as consultants have completed the detailed design. Function Analysis System Technique (FAST) diagram and VE job plan, information, function analysis, creative judgement, development, and recommendation phase are used to scrutinize the initial design of stormwater drainage. An estimated cost reduction using the VE approach of 2% over the initial proposal was obtained. This cost reduction is obtained from the design optimization of the drainage foundation and structural system, where the pile design and drainage base structure are optimized. Likewise, the design of the on-site detention tank (OSD) pump was revised and contribute to the cost reduction obtained. This case study shows that the VE approach can be an important tool in optimizing the design to reduce costs.

Keywords: value engineering, function analysis system technique, stormwater drainage, cost reduction

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Authors: Katherine Carl Payne, Moshe Dror

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The problem of minimum cost routing has been extensively explored in a variety of contexts. While there is a prevalence of routing applications based on least distance, time, and related attributes, exertion-based routing has remained relatively unexplored. In particular, the network structures traditionally used to construct minimum cost paths are not suited to representing exertion or finding paths of least exertion based on road gradient. In this paper, we introduce a topographical network or “topograph” that enables minimum cost routing based on the exertion metric on each arc in a given road network as it is related to changes in road gradient. We describe an algorithm for topograph construction and present the implementation of the topograph on a road network of the state of California with ~22 million nodes.

Keywords: topograph, RPE, routing, GIS

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Authors: Arezoo Heidary, Abolfazl Mirzazadeh, Aref Gholami-Qadikolaei

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In the business environment it is very common that a lot received may not be equal to quantity ordered. in this work, a random disturbance in a received quantity is considered. It is assumed a maximum allowable limit for storage space and inventory investment.The impact of lead time and ordering cost reductions once they act dependently is also investigated. Further, considering a mixture of back order and lost sales for allowable shortage system, the effect of investment on reducing lost sale rate is analyzed. For the proposed control system, a Lagrangian method is applied in order to solve the problem and an algorithmic procedure is utilized to achieve optimal solution with the global minimum expected cost. Finally, proves on concavity and convexity of the model in the decision variables are shown.

Keywords: stochastic inventory system, lead time, ordering cost, lost sale rate, inventory constraints, random disturbance

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Authors: Getachew Tilahun, Oluwole Makinde, David Malonza

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We propose and analyze a non-linear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of pneumonia disease in a population of varying size. The deterministic compartmental model is studied using stability theory of differential equations. The effective reproduction number is obtained and also the local and global asymptotically stability conditions for the disease free and as well as for the endemic equilibria are established. The model exhibit a backward bifurcation and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number to the key parameters are determined. Using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the optimal control problem is formulated with three control strategies; namely disease prevention through education, treatment and screening. The cost effectiveness analysis of the adopted control strategies revealed that the combination of prevention and treatment is the most cost effective intervention strategies to combat the pneumonia pandemic. Numerical simulation is performed and pertinent results are displayed graphically.

Keywords: cost effectiveness analysis, optimal control, pneumonia dynamics, stability analysis, numerical simulation

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Authors: Ke Fan, Edwin H. W. Chan

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Economic incentives of green building (GB) have been implemented to promote green building and address the market barriers. However, if developers could gain from the incentives, why not all the buildings are green? This paper aims to study this problem and provide a new perspective to look at the economic incentives. The theories of Transitional Gains Trap (TGP) and Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) are employed to explain the developers’ gains and losses from the economic incentives. This paper takes the GFA (gross floor area) concession incentive in Hong Kong, which is one of the most popular incentives, as the case to conduct in-depth case study and it did interview to validate the results. The results show that after implementing the GFA concession scheme, the benefit of the GFA concession is capitalized into land value. Therefore, developers have to bear the increased land cost, which supports the theory of the TGP. Even though, some developers are still not willing to participate in the incentive scheme because of high transaction costs (TCs).

Keywords: green building, economic incentives, transitional gains trap, transaction cost

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Authors: Ming-Jong Yao, Chin-Sum Shui, Chih-Han Wang

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This paper is developed based on a real-world decision scenario that an industrial gas company that applies the Vendor Managed Inventory model and supplies liquid oxygen with a self-operated heterogeneous vehicle fleet to hospitals in nearby cities. We name it as a Joint Replenishment and Heterogeneous Vehicle Routing Problem with Cyclical Schedule and formulate it as a non-linear mixed-integer linear programming problem which simultaneously determines the length of the planning cycle (PC), the length of the replenishment cycle and the dates of replenishment for each customer and the vehicle routes of each day within PC, such that the average daily operation cost within PC, including inventory holding cost, setup cost, transportation cost, and overtime labor cost, is minimized. A solution method based on genetic algorithm, embedded with an encoding and decoding mechanism and local search operators, is then proposed, and the hash function is adopted to avoid repetitive fitness evaluation for identical solutions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed solution method can effectively solve the problem under different lengths of PC and number of customers. The method is also shown to be effective in determining whether the company should expand the storage capacity of a customer whose demand increases. Sensitivity analysis of the vehicle fleet composition shows that deploying a mixed fleet can reduce the daily operating cost.

Keywords: cyclic inventory routing problem, joint replenishment, heterogeneous vehicle, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Ferinar Moaidi, Mahdi Moaidi

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Environmental issues and the ever-increasing in demand of electrical energy make it necessary to have distributed generation (DG) resources in the power system. In this research, in order to realize the goals of reducing losses and improving the voltage profile in a microgrid, the allocation and sizing of DGs have been used. The proposed Genetic Algorithm (GA) is described from the array of artificial intelligence methods for solving the problem. The algorithm is implemented on the IEEE 33 buses network. This study is presented in two scenarios, primarily to illustrate the effect of location and determination of DGs has been done to reduce losses and improve the voltage profile. On the other hand, decisions made with the one-level assumptions of load are not universally accepted for all levels of load. Therefore, in this study, load modelling is performed and the results are presented for multi-levels load state.

Keywords: distributed generation, genetic algorithm, microgrid, load modelling, loss reduction, voltage improvement

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Authors: Jiří F. Urbánek, Alena Oulehlová, Hana Malachová, Jiří J. Urbánek Jr.

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Crisis situations investigation and modelling are introduced and made within the complex system of energetic critical infrastructure, operating on peril´s environments. Every crisis situations and perils has an origin in the emergency/ crisis event occurrence and they need critical/ crisis interfaces assessment. Here, the emergency events can be expected - then crisis scenarios can be pre-prepared by pertinent organizational crisis management authorities towards their coping; or it may be unexpected - without pre-prepared scenario of event. But the both need operational coping by means of crisis management as well. The operation, forms, characteristics, behaviour and utilization of crisis management have various qualities, depending on real critical infrastructure organization perils, and prevention training processes. An aim is always - better security and continuity of the organization, which successful obtainment needs to find and investigate critical/ crisis zones and functions in critical infrastructure organization models, operating in pertinent perils environment. Our DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) method is disposables for it. Here, it is necessary to derive and create identification algorithm of critical/ crisis interfaces. The locations of critical/ crisis interfaces are the flags of crisis situation in organization of critical infrastructure models. Then, the model of crisis situation will be displayed at real organization of Czech energetic crisis infrastructure subject in real peril environment. These efficient measures are necessary for the infrastructure protection. They will be derived for peril mitigation, crisis situation coping and for environmentally friendly organization survival, continuity and its sustainable development advanced possibilities.

Keywords: algorithms, energetic infrastructure complex system, modelling, peril´s environment

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Authors: Eugen Rusu

Abstract:

The objective of the work proposed is to perform an analysis of the wave conditions in the Black Sea basin. This is especially focused on the spatial and temporal occurrences and on the dynamics of the most extreme storms in the context of the climate changes. A numerical modelling system, based on the spectral phase averaged wave model SWAN, has been implemented and validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data, all along the sea. Moreover, a successive correction method for the assimilation of the satellite data has been associated with the wave modelling system. This is based on the optimal interpolation of the satellite data. Previous studies show that the process of data assimilation improves considerably the reliability of the results provided by the modelling system. This especially concerns the most sensitive cases from the point of view of the accuracy of the wave predictions, as the extreme storm situations are. Following this numerical approach, it has to be highlighted that the results provided by the wave modelling system above described are in general in line with those provided by some similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed sea basins. Simulations of this wave modelling system with data assimilation have been performed for the 30-year period 1987-2016. Considering this database, the next step was to analyze the intensity and the dynamics of the higher storms encountered in this period. According to the data resulted from the model simulations, the western side of the sea is considerably more energetic than the rest of the basin. In this western region, regular strong storms provide usually significant wave heights greater than 8m. This may lead to maximum wave heights even greater than 15m. Such regular strong storms may occur several times in one year, usually in the wintertime, or in late autumn, and it can be noticed that their frequency becomes higher in the last decade. As regards the case of the most extreme storms, significant wave heights greater than 10m and maximum wave heights close to 20m (and even greater) may occur. Such extreme storms, which in the past were noticed only once in four or five years, are more recent to be faced almost every year in the Black Sea, and this seems to be a consequence of the climate changes. The analysis performed included also the dynamics of the monthly and annual significant wave height maxima as well as the identification of the most probable spatial and temporal occurrences of the extreme storm events. Finally, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information related to the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. This environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and intense offshore and nearshore activities and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce accidents with very serious consequences.

Keywords: Black Sea, extreme storms, SWAN simulations, waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Guoqian Ren, Haijiang Li, Jisong Zhang

Abstract:

Over the past 40 years, urban development has undergone large-scale, high-speed expansion, beyond what was previously considered normal and in a manner not proportionally related to population growth or physical considerations. With more scientific and refined decision-making in the urban construction process, new urbanization approaches, aligned with public-private partnerships (PPPs) which evolved in the early 1990s, have become acceptable and, in some situations, even better solutions to outstanding urban municipal construction projects, especially in developing countries. However, as the main driving force to deal with urban public services, PPPs are still problematic regarding value for money (VFM) process in most large-scale construction projects. This paper therefore reviews recent PPP articles in popular project management journals and relevant toolkits, published in the last 10 years, to identify the indicators that influence VFM within PPPs across regions. With increasing concerns about profitability and environmental and social impacts, the current PPP structure requires a more integrated platform to manage multi-performance project life cycles. Building information modelling (BIM), a popular approach to the procurement process in AEC sectors, provides the potential to ensure VFM while also working in tandem with the semantic approach to holistically measure life cycle costs (LCC) and achieve better sustainability. This paper suggests that BIM applied to the entire PPP life cycle could support holistic decision-making regarding VFM processes and thus meet service targets.

Keywords: public-private partnership, value for money, building information modelling, semantic approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 199