Search results for: analyst forecast dispersion

Authors: Taner Izzet Acarer, Ece Ceylan Baba

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This paper examines green building certification systems and their current processes in comparison with anticipatory systems. Rapid growth of human population and depletion of natural resources are causing irreparable damage to urban and natural environment. In this context, the concept of ‘sustainable architecture’ has emerged in the 20th century so as to establish and maintain standards for livable urban spaces, to improve quality of urban life, and to preserve natural resources for future generations. The construction industry is responsible for a large part of the resource consumption and it is believed that the ‘green building’ designs that emerge in construction industry can reduce environmental problems and contribute to sustainable development around the world. A building must meet a specific set of criteria, set forth through various certification systems, in order to be eligible for designation as a green building. It is disputable whether methods used by green building certification systems today truly serve the purposes of creating a sustainable world. Accordingly, this study will investigate the sets of rating systems used by the most popular green building certification programs, including LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design), BREEAM (Building Research Establishment's Environmental Assessment Methods), DGNB (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen System), in terms of ‘Anticipatory Systems’ in accordance with the certification processes and their goals, while discussing their contribution to architecture. The basic methodology of the study is as follows. Firstly analyzes of brief historical and literature review of green buildings and certificate systems will be stated. Secondly, processes of green building certificate systems will be disputed by the help of anticipatory systems. Anticipatory Systems is a set of systems designed to generate action-oriented projections and to forecast potential side effects using the most current data. Anticipatory Systems pull the future into the present and take action based on future predictions. Although they do not have a claim to see into the future, they can provide foresight data. When shaping the foresight data, Anticipatory Systems use feedforward instead of feedback, enabling them to forecast the system’s behavior and potential side effects by establishing a correlation between the system’s present/past behavior and projected results. This study indicates the goals and current status of LEED, BREEAM and DGNB rating systems that created by using the feedback technique will be examined and presented in a chart. In addition, by examining these rating systems with the anticipatory system that using the feedforward method, the negative influences of the potential side effects on the purpose and current status of the rating systems will be shown in another chart. By comparing the two obtained data, the findings will be shown that rating systems are used for different goals than the purposes they are aiming for. In conclusion, the side effects of green building certification systems will be stated by using anticipatory system models.

Keywords: anticipatory systems, BREEAM, certificate systems, DGNB, green buildings, LEED

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Authors: Xin Chang, Daping Chu

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Oxygen gas sensing technology has progressed since the last century and it has been extensively used in a wide range of applications such as controlling the combustion process by sensing the oxygen level in the exhaust gas of automobiles to ensure the catalytic converter is in a good working condition. Similar sensors are also used in industrial boilers to make the combustion process economic and environmentally friendly. Different gas sensing mechanisms have been developed: ceramic-based potentiometric equilibrium sensors and semiconductor-based sensors by oxygen absorption. In this work, we present a highly sensitive and low-cost oxygen gas sensor based on Zinc Oxide nanoparticles (average particle size of 35nm) dispersion in ethanol. The sensor is able to measure the pressure range from 103 mBar to 10-5 mBar with a sensitivity of more than 102 mA/Bar. The sensor is also erasable with heat.

Keywords: nanoparticles, oxygen, sensor, ZnO

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Authors: Mahsa Fathollahzadeh

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The quick advancement of nanotechnology necessitates the creation of innovative theoretical approaches to elucidate complex experimental findings and forecast novel capabilities of nanodevices. Therefore, over the past ten years, a difficult task in quantum chemistry has been comprehending electron and spin transport in molecular devices. This thorough evaluation presents a comprehensive overview of current research and its status in the field of molecular electronics, emphasizing the theoretical applications to various device types and including a brief introduction to theoretical methods and their practical implementation plan. The subject matter includes a variety of molecular mechanisms like molecular cables, diodes, transistors, electrical and visual switches, nano detectors, magnetic valve gadgets, inverse electrical resistance gadgets, and electron tunneling exploration. The text discusses both the constraints of the method presented and the potential strategies to address them, with a total of 183 references.

Keywords: chemistry, nanotechnology, quantum, molecule, spin

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm

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Authors: Obe Olumide Olayinka, Victor Balanica, Eugen Neagoe

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The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: neural network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning

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Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

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The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, mike21, sediment

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Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

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India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

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Authors: Shyh-Ming Chern, Kai-Ting Hsieh

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Organic solvents find various applications in many industrial sectors and laboratories as dilution solvents, dispersion solvents, cleaners and even lubricants. Millions of tons of Spent Organic Solvents (SOS) are generated each year worldwide, prompting the need for more efficient, cleaner and safer methods for the treatment and resource recovery of SOS. As a result, acetone, selected as a model compound for SOS, was gasified in supercritical water to assess the feasibility of resource recovery of SOS by means of supercritical water processes. Experiments were conducted with an autoclave reactor. Gaseous product is mainly consists of H2, CO, CO2 and CH4. The effects of three major operating parameters, the reaction temperature, from 673 to 773K, the dosage of oxidizing agent, from 0.3 to 0.5 stoichiometric oxygen, and the concentration of acetone in the feed, 0.1 and 0.2M, on the product gas composition, yield and heating value were evaluated with the water density fixed at about 0.188g/ml.

Keywords: acetone, gasification, SCW, supercritical water

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Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Sang C. Park

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Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: performance forecasting, simulation, virtual manned assembly line, WEMax

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Authors: David Gligor

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The purpose of this study was to build on Fisher's (1997) seminal article. First, it sought to determine how companies can achieve supply chain fit (i.e., match between the products' characteristics and the underlying supply chain design). Second, it attempted to develop a better understanding of how environmental conditions impact the relationship between supply chain fit and performance. The findings indicate that firm supply chain agility allows organizations to quickly adjust the structure of their supply chains and therefore, achieve supply chain fit. In addition, archival and survey data were used to explore the moderating effects of six environmental uncertainty dimensions: munificence, market dynamism, technological dynamism, technical complexity, product diversity, and geographic dispersion. All environmental variables, except technological dynamism, were found to impact the relationship between supply chain fit and firm performance.

Keywords: supply chain fit, environmental uncertainty, supply chain agility, management engineering

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks

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Authors: Oluseyi Adunola Bamisaiye

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The frequency of occurrence of earth tremor in Nigeria has increased tremendously in recent years. Slow earthquakes/ tremor have preceded some large earthquakes in some other regions of the world and the Nigerian case may not be an exception. Timely and careful investigation of these tremors may reveal their relation to large earthquakes and provides important clues to constrain the slip rates on tectonic faults. Thus making it imperative to keep under watch and also study carefully the tectonically active terrains within the country, in order to adequately forecast, prescribe mitigation measures and in order to avoid a major disaster. This report provides new evidence of a slow slip transient in a strongly locked seismogenic zone of the Okemesi fold belt. The aim of this research is to investigate the different methods of earth tremor monitoring using fault slip analysis and mapping of Okemesi hills, which has been the most recent epicenter to most of the recent tremors.

Keywords: earth tremor, fault slip, intraplate activities, plate tectonics

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Authors: Md. Nazmul Haque, Mahinur Rahman

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The objective of the research is to determine the quantity of household waste generated and forecast the future condition of Ward No 24 (Nirala). For performing that, three core issues are focused: (i) the capacity and service area of the dumping stations; (ii) the present waste generation amount per capita per day; (iii) the responsibility of the local authority in the household waste collection. This research relied on field survey-based data collection from all stakeholders and GIS-based secondary analysis of waste collection points and their coverage. However, these studies are mostly based on the inherent forecasting approaches, cannot predict the amount of waste correctly. The findings of this study suggest that Nirala is a formal residential area introducing a better approach to the waste collection - self-controlled and collection system. Here, a forecasting model proposed for waste generation as Y = -2250387 + 1146.1 * X, where X = year.

Keywords: eco-friendly environment, household waste, linear regression, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Hammad Aziz

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Intumescent fire retardant coating (IFRC) is applied on the surface of material requiring fire protection. In this research work, IFRC’s were developed using ammonium polyphosphate, expandable graphite, melamine, boric acid, zinc borate, mica, magnesium oxide, and bisphenol A BE-188 with polyamide polyamine H-4014 as curing agent. Formulations were prepared using nano size MgO and compared with control formulation i.e. without nano size MgO. Small scale hydrocarbon fire test was conducted to scrutinize the thermal performance of the coating. Char and coating were further characterized by using FESEM, FTIR, EDS, TGA and DTGA. Thus, Intumescent coatings reinforced with 2 wt. % of nano-MgO (rod shaped particles) provide superior thermal performance and uniform microstructure of char due to well dispersion of nano particles.

Keywords: intumescent coating, char, SEM, TGA

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: Muhammad Ashfaq

Abstract:

Main theme: This prime focus of this study is on the role of digital technology in crime prevention, with special focus on Cellular Forensic Unit, Capital City Police Peshawar-Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Objective(s) of the study: The prime objective of this study is to provide statistics, strategies, and pattern of analysis used for crime prevention in Cellular Forensic Unit of Capital City Police Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Research Method and Procedure: Qualitative method of research has been used in the study for obtaining secondary data from research wing and Information Technology (IT) section of Peshawar police. Content analysis was the method used for the conduction of the study. This study is delimited to Capital City Police and Cellular Forensic Unit Peshawar-KP, Pakistan. information technologies. Major finding(s): It is evident that the old traditional approach will never provide solutions for better management in controlling crimes. The best way to control crimes and promotion of proactive policing is to adopt new technologies. The study reveals that technology have transformed police more effective and vigilant as compared to traditional policing. The heinous crimes like abduction, missing of an individual, snatching, burglaries, and blind murder cases are now traceable with the help of technology. Recommendation(s): From the analysis of the data, it is reflected that Information Technology (IT) expert should be recruited along with research analyst to timely assist and facilitate operational as well as investigation units of police. A mobile locator should be Provided to Cellular Forensic Unit to timely apprehend the criminals. Latest digital analysis software should be provided to equip the Cellular Forensic Unit.

Keywords: criminology-pakistan, crime prevention-KP, digital forensics, digital technology-pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Muhammad Ashfaq

Abstract:

Main theme: This prime focus of this study is on the role of digital technology in crime prevention, with special focus on Cellular Forensic Unit, Capital City Police Peshawar-Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Objective(s) of the study: The prime objective of this study is to provide statistics, strategies and pattern of analysis used for crime prevention in Cellular Forensic Unit of Capital City Police Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan. Research Method and Procedure: Qualitative method of research has been used in the study for obtaining secondary data from research wing and Information Technology (IT) section of Peshawar police. Content analysis was the method used for the conduction of the study. This study is delimited to Capital City Police and Cellular Forensic Unit Peshawar-KP, Pakistan. information technologies.Major finding(s): It is evident that the old traditional approach will never provide solutions for better management in controlling crimes. The best way to control crimes and promotion of proactive policing is to adopt new technologies. The study reveals that technology have transformed police more effective and vigilant as compared to traditional policing. The heinous crimes like abduction, missing of an individual, snatching, burglaries and blind murder cases are now traceable with the help of technology.Recommendation(s): From the analysis of the data, it is reflected that Information Technology (IT) expert should be recruited along with research analyst to timely assist and facilitate operational as well as investigation units of police .A mobile locator should be Provided to Cellular Forensic Unit to timely apprehend the criminals .Latest digital analysis software should be provided to equip the Cellular Forensic Unit.

Keywords: crime-prevention, cellular-forensic unit-pakistan, crime prevention-digital-pakistan, crminology-pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Irsa Wolfram, Boruch Lorenz

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Innovative solutions with additive manufacturing applying material extrusion for functional parts necessitate innovative filaments with persistent quality. Uniform homogeneity and a consistent dispersion of particles embedded in filaments generally require multiple cycles of extrusion or well-prepared primal matter by injection molding, kneader machines, or mixing equipment. These technologies commit to dedicated equipment that is rarely at the disposal in production laboratories unfamiliar with research in polymer materials. This stands in contrast to laboratories that investigate complex material topics and technology science to leverage the potential of 3-D printing. Consequently, scientific studies in labs are often constrained to compositions and concentrations of fillersofferedfrom the market. Therefore, we introduce a prototypal laboratory methodology scalable to tailoredprimal matter for extruding ceramic composite filaments with fused filament fabrication (FFF) technology. - A desktop single-screw extruder serves as a core device for the experiments. Custom-made filaments encapsulate the ceramic fillers and serve with polylactide (PLA), which is a thermoplastic polyester, as primal matter and is processed in the melting area of the extruder, preserving the defined concentration of the fillers. Validated results demonstrate that this approach enables continuously produced and uniform composite filaments with consistent homogeneity. Itis 3-D printable with controllable dimensions, which is a prerequisite for any scalable application. Additionally, digital microscopy confirms the steady dispersion of the ceramic particles in the composite filament. - This permits a 2D reconstruction of the planar distribution of the embedded ceramic particles in the PLA matrices. The innovation of the introduced method lies in the smart simplicity of preparing the composite primal matter. It circumvents the inconvenience of numerous extrusion operations and expensive laboratory equipment. Nevertheless, it deliversconsistent filaments of controlled, predictable, and reproducible filler concentration, which is the prerequisite for any industrial application. The introduced prototypal laboratory methodology seems capable for other polymer matrices and suitable to further utilitarian particle types beyond and above ceramic fillers. This inaugurates a roadmap for supplementary laboratory development of peculiar composite filaments, providing value for industries and societies. This low-threshold entry of sophisticated preparation of composite filaments - enabling businesses to create their own dedicated filaments - will support the mutual efforts for establishing 3D printing to new functional devices.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, ceramic composites, complex filament, industrial application

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Authors: Jéssica Bernegossi, Lívia Nordi Dovigo, Marlus Chorilli

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Mucoadhesive liquid crystalline systems are emerging how delivery systems for oral cavity. These systems are interesting since they facilitate the targeting of medicines and change the release enabling a reduction in the number of applications made by the patient. The buccal mucosa is permeable besides present a great blood supply and absence of first pass metabolism, it is a good route of administration. It was developed two systems liquid crystals utilizing as surfactant the ethyl alcohol ethoxylated and propoxylated (30%) as oil phase the oleic acid (60%), and the aqueous phase (10%) dispersion of polymer polyethylenimine (0.5%) or dispersion of polymer poloxamer 407 (16%), with the intention of applying the buccal mucosa. Initially, was performed for characterization of systems the conference by polarized light microscopy and rheological analysis. For the preparation of the systems the components described was added above in glass vials and shaken. Then, 30 and 100% artificial saliva were added to each prepared formulation so as to simulate the environment of the oral cavity. For the verification of the system structure, aliquots of the formulations were observed in glass slide and covered with a coverslip, examined in polarized light microscope (PLM) Axioskop - Zeizz® in 40x magnifier. The formulations were also evaluated for their rheological profile Rheometer TA Instruments®, which were obtained rheograms the selected systems employing fluency mode (flow) in temperature of 37ºC (98.6ºF). In PLM, it was observed that in formulations containing polyethylenimine and poloxamer 407 without the addition of artificial saliva was observed dark-field being indicative of microemulsion, this was also observed with the formulation that was increased with 30% of the artificial saliva. In the formulation that was increased with 100% simulated saliva was shown to be a system structure since it presented anisotropy with the presence of striae being indicative of hexagonal liquid crystalline mesophase system. Upon observation of rheograms, both systems without the addition of artificial saliva showed a Newtonian profile, after addition of 30% artificial saliva have been given a non-Newtonian behavior of the pseudoplastic-thixotropic type and after adding 100% of the saliva artificial proved plastic-thixotropic. Furthermore, it is clearly seen that the formulations containing poloxamer 407 have significantly larger (15-800 Pa) shear stress compared to those containing polyethyleneimine (5-50 Pa), indicating a greater plasticity of these. Thus, it is possible to observe that the addition of saliva was of interest to the system structure, starting from a microemulsion for a liquid crystal system, thereby also changing thereby its rheological behavior. The systems have promising characteristics as controlled release systems to the oral cavity, as it features good fluidity during its possible application and greater structuring of the system when it comes into contact with environmental saliva.

Keywords: liquid crystal system, poloxamer 407, polyethylenimine, rheology

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Authors: Ilango Thiagalingam, Erwann Yvin, Gabriel Crehan, Roch El Khoury

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An experimental investigation is carried out in order to evaluate the relevance of a customization approach of the passive thermal mannikin. The promise of this approach consists in the following assumption: physiological differences lead to distinct thermo-physiological responses that explain a part of the thermal appraisal differences between people. Categorizing people and developing an appropriate thermal mannikin for each group would help to reduce the actual dispersion on the subjective thermal comfort perception. The present investigation indicates that popular passive physiological diversity drivers such as sex, age and BMI are not the correct parameters to consider. Indeed, very little or no discriminated global thermo-physiological responses arise from the physiological classification of the population using these parameters.

Keywords: thermal comfort, thermo-physiology, customization, thermal mannikin

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Authors: Robert Prucek, Aleš Panáček, Jan Filip, Libor Kvítek, Radek Zbořil

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The preparation of Cu nanoparticles (NPs) through the reduction of copper ions by sodium borohydride in the presence of sodium polyacrylate with a molecular weight of 1200 is reported. Cu NPs were synthesized at a concentration of copper salt equal to 2.5, 5, and 10 mM, and at a molar ratio of copper ions and monomeric unit of polyacrylate equal to 1:2. The as-prepared Cu NPs have diameters of about 2.5–3 nm for copper concentrations of 2.5 and 5 mM, and 6 nm for copper concentration of 10 mM. Depending on the copper salt concentration and concentration of additionally added polyacrylate to Cu particle dispersion, primarily formed NPs grow through the process of aggregation and/or coalescence into clusters and/or particles with a diameter between 20–100 nm. The amount of additionally added sodium polyacrylate influences the stability of Cu particles against air oxidation. The catalytic efficiency of the prepared Cu particles for the reduction of 4-nitrophenol is discussed.

Keywords: copper, nanoparticles, sodium polyacrylate, catalyst, 4-nitrophenol

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Pei-Shan Kao

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This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.

Keywords: cognitive bias, role of media, disposition effect, earnings-related information, behavioral pitfall

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: JingWei Yu, Hong Yang Yu

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At present, the increasingly serious air pollution in various cities of China has made people pay more attention to the air quality index(hereinafter referred to as AQI) of their living areas. To face this situation, it is of great significance to predict air pollution in heavily polluted areas. In this paper, based on the time series model of LSTM, a spatiotemporal prediction model of PM2.5 concentration in Mianyang, Sichuan Province, is established. The model fully considers the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentration. The spatial correlation of air quality at different locations is based on the Air quality status of other nearby monitoring stations, including AQI and meteorological data to predict the air quality of a monitoring station. The experimental results show that the method has good prediction accuracy that the fitting degree with the actual measured data reaches more than 0.7, which can be applied to the modeling and prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional PM2.5 concentration.

Keywords: LSTM, PM2.5, neural networks, spatio-temporal prediction

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Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s System. Naturally exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s System. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA- safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and ruler areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is also predicted the distribution schemes from the perspective of pollutants that considered multiple factors of multi-criteria analysis. The data extends input–output analysis to evaluate the spillover effect, and conducted Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the biosphere and collective a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in artistic/ architectural perspective. The hypothesis is an attempt to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for development urban environments using optimization software and applied as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology as optimization approach of systems ecology.

Keywords: spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology

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Authors: Maryam Ziaee

Abstract:

This research proposes a new approach and provides an opportunity for manufacturing companies to produce large amounts of products that meet their prospective customers’ tastes, needs, and expectations and simultaneously enable manufacturers to increase their profit. Mass customization is the production of products or services to meet each individual customer’s desires to the greatest possible extent in high quantities and at reasonable prices. This process takes place at different levels such as the customization of goods’ design, assembly, sale, and delivery status, and classifies in several categories. The main focus of this study is on one class of mass customization, called optional customization, in which companies try to provide their customers with as many options as possible to customize their products. These options could range from the design phase to the manufacturing phase, or even methods of delivery. Mass customization values customers’ tastes, but it is only one side of clients’ satisfaction; on the other side is companies’ fast responsiveness delivery. It brings the concept of agility, which is the ability of a company to respond rapidly to changes in volatile markets in terms of volume and variety. Indeed, mass customization is not effectively feasible without integrating the concept of agility. To gain the customers’ satisfaction, the companies need to be quick in responding to their customers’ demands, thus highlighting the significance of agility. This research offers a different method that successfully integrates mass customization and fast production in manufacturing industries. This research is built upon the hypothesis that the success key to being agile in mass customization is to forecast demand, cooperate with suppliers, and control inventory. Therefore, the significance of the supply chain (SC) is more pertinent when it comes to this stage. Since SC behavior is dynamic and its behavior changes constantly, companies have to apply one of the predicting techniques to identify the changes associated with SC behavior to be able to respond properly to any unwelcome events. System dynamics utilized in this research is a simulation approach to provide a mathematical model among different variables to understand, control, and forecast SC behavior. The final stage is delayed differentiation, the production strategy considered in this research. In this approach, the main platform of products is produced and stocked and when the company receives an order from a customer, a specific customized feature is assigned to this platform and the customized products will be created. The main research question is to what extent applying system dynamics for the prediction of SC behavior improves the agility of mass customization. This research is built upon a qualitative approach to bring about richer, deeper, and more revealing results. The data is collected through interviews and is analyzed through NVivo software. This proposed model offers numerous benefits such as reduction in the number of product inventories and their storage costs, improvement in the resilience of companies’ responses to their clients’ needs and tastes, the increase of profits, and the optimization of productivity with the minimum level of lost sales.

Keywords: agility, manufacturing, resilience, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

Abstract:

World-wide spread of coronavirus grows the concern about planning for the excess demand of hospital services in response to COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in the hospital services demand beyond the current capacity leads to shortage of ICU beds and ventilators in some parts of US. In this study, we forecast the required number of hospital beds and possible shortage of beds in US during COVID-19 pandemic to be used in the planning and hospitalization of new cases. In this paper, we used a data on COVID-19 deaths and patients’ hospitalization besides the data on hospital capacities and utilization in US from publicly available sources and national government websites. we used a novel ensemble modelling of deep learning networks, based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to predict the shortage in hospital beds. The results showed that our proposed approach can predict the excess hospital beds demand very well and this can be helpful in developing strategies and plans to mitigate this gap.

Keywords: COVID-19, deep learning, ensembled models, hospital capacity planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: M. E. Ali Mohsin, Agus Arsad, Othman Y. Alothman

Abstract:

This study explains the influence of secondary filler on the dispersion of carbon nanotube (CNT) reinforced high density polyethylene (HDPE) nanocomposites (CNT/HDPE). In order to understand the mixed-fillers system, Montmorillonite (MMT) was added to CNT/HDPE nanocomposites. It was followed by investigating their effect on the thermal, mechanical and morphological properties of the aforesaid nanocomposite. Incorporation of 3 wt% each of MMT into CNT/HDPE nanocomposite resulted to the increased values for the tensile and flexural strength, as compared to the pure HDPE matrix. The thermal analysis result showed improved thermal stability of the formulated nanocomposites. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images revealed that larger aggregates of CNTs were disappeared upon addition of these two components leading to the enhancement of thermo-mechanical properties for such composites.

Keywords: secondary filler, montmorillonite, carbon nanotube, nanocomposite

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: V. Villa-Cruz, H. Pérez-Ladron de Guevara, J. E. Diaz-Díaz

Abstract:

Static Light Scattering (SLS) was used as a method to analyse cow's milk raw, coming from the town of Lagos de Moreno, Jalisco, Mexico. This method is based on the analysis of the dispersion of light laser produced by a set of particles in solution. Based on the above, raw milk, which contains particles of fat globules, with a diameter of 2000 nm and particles of micelles of protein with 300 nm in diameter were analyzed. For this, dilutions of commercial milk were made (1.0%, 2.0% and 3.3%) to obtain a pattern of laser light scattering and also made measurements of raw cow's milk. Readings were taken in a sweep initial angle 10° to 170°, results were analyzed with the program OriginPro 7. The SLS method gives us an estimate of the percentage of fat content in milk samples. It can be concluded that the SLS method, is a quick method of analysis to detect adulteration in raw cow's milk.

Keywords: light scattering, milk analysis, adulteration in milk, micelles, OriginPro

Procedia PDF Downloads 375