Search results for: gamma distributed degradation model

Authors: Fikret Yalcinkaya, Hamza Unsal

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To understand how neurons work, it is required to combine experimental studies on neural science with numerical simulations of neuron models in a computer environment. In this regard, the simplicity and applicability of spiking neuron modeling functions have been of great interest in computational neuron science and numerical neuroscience in recent years. Spiking neuron models can be classified by exhibiting various neuronal behaviors, such as spiking and bursting. These classifications are important for researchers working on theoretical neuroscience. In this paper, three different spiking neuron models; Izhikevich, Adaptive Exponential Integrate Fire (AEIF) and Hindmarsh Rose (HR), which are based on first order differential equations, are discussed and compared. First, the physical meanings, derivatives, and differential equations of each model are provided and simulated in the Matlab environment. Then, by selecting appropriate parameters, the models were visually examined in the Matlab environment and it was aimed to demonstrate which model can simulate well-known biological neuron behaviours such as Tonic Spiking, Tonic Bursting, Mixed Mode Firing, Spike Frequency Adaptation, Resonator and Integrator. As a result, the Izhikevich model has been shown to perform Regular Spiking, Continuous Explosion, Intrinsically Bursting, Thalmo Cortical, Low-Threshold Spiking and Resonator. The Adaptive Exponential Integrate Fire model has been able to produce firing patterns such as Regular Ignition, Adaptive Ignition, Initially Explosive Ignition, Regular Explosive Ignition, Delayed Ignition, Delayed Regular Explosive Ignition, Temporary Ignition and Irregular Ignition. The Hindmarsh Rose model showed three different dynamic neuron behaviours; Spike, Burst and Chaotic. From these results, the Izhikevich cell model may be preferred due to its ability to reflect the true behavior of the nerve cell, the ability to produce different types of spikes, and the suitability for use in larger scale brain models. The most important reason for choosing the Adaptive Exponential Integrate Fire model is that it can create rich ignition patterns with fewer parameters. The chaotic behaviours of the Hindmarsh Rose neuron model, like some chaotic systems, is thought to be used in many scientific and engineering applications such as physics, secure communication and signal processing.

Keywords: Izhikevich, adaptive exponential integrate fire, Hindmarsh Rose, biological neuron behaviours, spiking neuron models

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Authors: Victoria Y. Garnova, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Sergey V. Khudyakov, Aleksandr A. Gajour, Andrei P. Garnov

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This paper refers to the analysis of the characteristics of industrial and lifestyle facilities heat- energy objects as a part of the thermal envelope of Earth's surface for inclusion in any database of economic forecasting. The idealized model of the Earth's surface is discussed. This model gives the opportunity to obtain the energy equivalent for each element of terrain and world ocean. Energy efficiency criterion of comfortable human existence is introduced. Dynamics of changes of this criterion offers the possibility to simulate the possible technogenic catastrophes with a spontaneous industrial development of the certain Earth areas. Calculated model with the confirmed forecast of the Gulf Stream freezing in the Polar Regions in 2011 due to the heat-energy balance disturbance for the oceanic subsurface oil polluted layer is given. Two opposing trends of human development under the limited and unlimited amount of heat-energy resources are analyzed.

Keywords: Earth's surface, heat-energy consumption, energy criteria, technogenic catastrophes

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Authors: Ahmad Badawi Saluy, Novawiguna Kemalasari

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This study aims to examine, analyze and explain the impacts of compensation, career development and employee engagement to employee’s performance partially and simultaneously (Case Study at PT Bank XYZ). The research design used is quantitative descriptive research causality involving 30 respondents. Sources of data are from primary and secondary data, primary data obtained from questionnaires distribution and secondary data obtained from journals and books. Data analysis used model test using smart application PLS 3 that consists of test outer model and inner model. The results showed that compensation, career development and employee engagement partially have a positive impact on employee performance, while they have a positive and significant impact on employee performance simultaneously. The independent variable has the greatest impact is the employee engagement.

Keywords: compensation, career development, employee engagement, employee performance

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Authors: Manoj Reghu, Prabhu Rajagopal, C. V. Krishnamurthy, Krishnan Balasubramaniam

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A thorough understanding of guided ultrasonic wave behavior in structures is essential for the application of existing Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technologies, as well as for the development of new methods. However, the analysis of guided wave phenomena is challenging because of their complex dispersive and multimodal nature. Although numerical solution procedures have proven to be very useful in this regard, the increasing complexity of features and defects to be considered, as well as the desire to improve the accuracy of inspection often imposes a large computational cost. Hybrid models that combine numerical solutions for wave scattering with faster alternative methods for wave propagation have long been considered as a solution to this problem. However usually such models require modification of the base code of the solution procedure. Here we aim to develop Generic Hybrid models that can be directly applied to any two different solution procedures. With this goal in mind, a Numerical Hybrid model and an Analytical-Numerical Hybrid model has been developed. The concept and implementation of these Hybrid models are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: guided ultrasonic waves, Finite Element Method (FEM), Hybrid model

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Authors: Sabina Huč, Staffan Svensson, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber structures may be exposed to various environmental conditions during their service life. Often, the structures have to resist extreme changes in the relative humidity of surrounding air, with simultaneously carrying the loads. Wood material response for this load case is seen as increasing deformation of the timber structure. Relative humidity variations cause moisture changes in timber and consequently shrinkage and swelling of the material. Moisture changes and loads acting together result in mechano-sorptive creep, while sustained load gives viscoelastic creep. In some cases, magnitude of the mechano-sorptive strain can be about five times the elastic strain already at low stress levels. Therefore, analyzing mechano-sorptive creep and its influence on timber structures’ long-term behavior is of high importance. Relatively many one-dimensional rheological models for rheological behavior of wood can be found in literature, while a number of models coupling creep response in each material direction is limited. In this study, mathematical formulation of a coupled two-dimensional mechano-sorptive model and its application to the experimental results are presented. The mechano-sorptive model constitutes of a moisture transport model and a mechanical model. Variation of the moisture content in wood is modelled by multi-Fickian moisture transport model. The model accounts for processes of the bound-water and water-vapor diffusion in wood, that are coupled through sorption hysteresis. Sorption defines a nonlinear relation between moisture content and relative humidity. Multi-Fickian moisture transport model is able to accurately predict unique, non-uniform moisture content field within the timber member over time. Calculated moisture content in timber members is used as an input to the mechanical analysis. In the mechanical analysis, the total strain is assumed to be a sum of the elastic strain, viscoelastic strain, mechano-sorptive strain, and strain due to shrinkage and swelling. Mechano-sorptive response is modelled by so-called spring-dashpot type of a model, that proved to be suitable for describing creep of wood. Mechano-sorptive strain is dependent on change of moisture content. The model includes mechano-sorptive material parameters that have to be calibrated to the experimental results. The calibration is made to the experiments carried out on wooden blocks subjected to uniaxial compressive loaded in tangential direction and varying humidity conditions. The moisture and the mechanical model are implemented in a finite element software. The calibration procedure gives the required, distinctive set of mechano-sorptive material parameters. The analysis shows that mechano-sorptive strain in transverse direction is present, though its magnitude and variation are substantially lower than the mechano-sorptive strain in the direction of loading. The presented mechano-sorptive model enables observing real temporal and spatial distribution of the moisture-induced strains and stresses in timber members. Since the model’s suitability for predicting mechano-sorptive strains is shown and the required material parameters are obtained, a comprehensive advanced analysis of the stress-strain state in timber structures, including connections subjected to constant load and varying humidity is possible.

Keywords: mechanical analysis, mechano-sorptive creep, moisture transport model, timber

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Authors: Mukunda Bastola, Frank Nyame-Asiamah

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Economics explanation for privatisation, drawing on neo-liberal market structures and technical efficiency principles has failed to address social imbalance and, distribute the efficiency benefits accrued from privatisation equitably among service users and different classes of people in society. Stakeholders’ interest, which cover ethical values and changing human needs are ignored due to shareholders’ profit maximising strategy with higher service charges. The consequence of these is that, the existing justifications for privatisation have fallen short of customer quality expectations because the underlying plan-based models fail to account for the nuances of customer expectations. We draw on the theory of deferred action to develop a context-based privatisation model, the deferred-based privatisation model, to explain how privatisation could be strategised for the emergent reality of the wider stakeholders’ interests and everyday quality demands of customers which are unpredictable.

Keywords: privatisation, service quality, shareholders, deferred action, deferred-based privatisation model

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Authors: Shamima Akhter, Siegfried Bauer

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The aim of this study is to analyze the migration process of the rural population of Bangladesh. Heckman Probit model with sample selection was applied in this paper to explore the determinants of migration and intensity of migration at farm household level. The farm survey was conducted in the central part of Bangladesh on 160 farm households with migrant and on 154 farm households without migrant including a total of 316 farm households. The results from the applied model revealed that main determinants of migration at farm household level are household age, economically active males and females, number of young and old dependent members in the household and agricultural land holding. On the other hand, the main determinants of intensity of migration are availability of economically adult male in the household, number of young dependents and agricultural land holding.

Keywords: determinants, Heckman Probit model, migration, rural-urban

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Authors: Abid Boudiar

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We propose a simple model to obtain an exact expression of Tc/(Tc,max) for the temperature-doping phase diagram of superconducting cuprates. We showed that our model predicted most phase diagram scenario. We found the exact special doping points p(opt), p(qcp) and an accurate E(g,max). Some other properties such as the stripes length 100.1°A and the energy gap in cuprates chain
6meV can also be calculated exactly. Another interesting consequence of this simple picture is the new magic numbers and the ability to express everything using a (Tc,p) diagram via the golden ratio.

Keywords: superconducting cuprates, phase, pseudogap, hole doping, strips, golden ratio, soliton

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Authors: Alison C. Essary, Victor Trastek

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Introduction: The current state of the health care system in the U.S. is characterized by an unprecedented number of people living with multiple chronic conditions, unsustainable rise in health care costs, inadequate access to care, and wide variation in health outcomes throughout the country. An estimated two-thirds of Americans are living with two or more chronic conditions, contributing to 75% of all health care spending. In 2013, the School for the Science of Health Care Delivery (SHCD) was charged with redesigning the health care system through education and research. Faculty in business, law, and public policy, and thought leaders in health care delivery, administration, public health and health IT created undergraduate, graduate, and executive academic programs to address this pressing need. Faculty and students work across disciplines, and with community partners and employers to improve care delivery and increase value for patients. Methods: Curricula apply content in health care administration and operations within the clinical context. Graduate modules are team-taught by faculty across academic units to model team-based practice. Seminars, team-based assignments, faculty mentoring, and applied projects are integral to student success. Cohort-driven models enhance networking and collaboration. This observational study evaluated two years of admissions data, and one year of graduate data to assess program outcomes and inform the current graduate-level curricula. Descriptive statistics includes means, percentages. Results: Fall 2013, the program received 51 applications. The mean GPA of the entering class of 37 students was 3.38. Ninety-seven percent of the fall 2013 cohort successfully completed the program (n=35). Sixty-six percent are currently employed in the health care industry (n=23). Of the remaining 12 graduates, two successfully matriculated to medical school; one works in the original field of study; four await results on the MCAT or DAT, and five were lost to follow up. Attrition of one student was attributed to non-academic reasons. Fall 2014, the program expanded to include both on-ground and online cohorts. Applications were evenly distributed between on-ground (n=70) and online (n=68). Thirty-eight students enrolled in the on-ground program. The mean GPA was 3.95. Ninety-five percent of students successfully completed the program (n=36). Thirty-six students enrolled in the online program. The mean GPA was 3.85. Graduate outcomes are pending. Discussion: Challenges include demographic variability between online and on-ground students; yet, both profiles are similar in that students intend to become change agents in the health care system. In the past two years, on-ground applications increased by 31%, persistence to graduation is > 95%, mean GPA is 3.67, graduates report admission to six U.S. medical schools, the Mayo Medical School integrates SHCD content within their curricula, and there is national interest in collaborating on industry and academic partnerships. This places SHCD at the forefront of developing innovative curricula in order to improve high-value, patient-centered care.

Keywords: delivery science, education, health care delivery, high-value care, innovation in education, patient-centered

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Authors: Shaikah Alsubayae, Gianluigi Casse, Carlos Chavez, Jon Taylor, Alan Taylor, Mohammad Alsulimane

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Ensuring accurate radiotherapy with carbon therapy requires precise monitoring of radiation dose distribution within the patient's body. This monitoring is essential for targeted tumor treatment, minimizing harm to healthy tissues, and improving treatment effectiveness while lowering side effects. In our investigation, we employed a methodological approach to monitor secondary proton doses in carbon therapy using Monte Carlo simulations. Initially, Geant4 simulations were utilized to extract the initial positions of secondary particles formed during interactions between carbon ions and water. These particles included protons, gamma rays, alpha particles, neutrons, and tritons. Subsequently, we studied the relationship between the carbon ion beam and these secondary particles. Interaction Vertex Imaging (IVI) is valuable for monitoring dose distribution in carbon therapy. It provides details about the positions and amounts of secondary particles, particularly protons. The IVI method depends on charged particles produced during ion fragmentation to gather information about the range by reconstructing particle trajectories back to their point of origin, referred to as the vertex. In our simulations regarding carbon ion therapy, we observed a strong correlation between some secondary particles and the range of carbon ions. However, challenges arose due to the target's unique elongated geometry, which hindered the straightforward transmission of forward-generated protons. Consequently, the limited protons that emerged mostly originated from points close to the target entrance. The trajectories of fragments (protons) were approximated as straight lines, and a beam back-projection algorithm, using recorded interaction positions in Si detectors, was developed to reconstruct vertices. The analysis revealed a correlation between the reconstructed and actual positions.

Keywords: radiotherapy, carbon therapy, monitoring of radiation dose, interaction vertex imaging

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Authors: Siamak Shahidi, Nasrin Hashemi-Firouzi, Sara Soleimani-Asl, Alireza Komaki

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Introduction: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive memory and cognitive performance. Recently, an involvement of the serotonergic system and their receptors are suspected in the AD progression. In the present behavioral study, the effects of BIMU (selective 5-HT4 receptor agonist) on cognition and memory in the rat model of AD was investigated. Material and Methods: The animal model of the AD was induced by intracerebroventricular (Icv) injection of amyloid beta (Aβ) in adult male Wistar rats. Animals were divided into experimental groups included control, sham, Aβ, Aβ +BIMU groups. The treatment substances were icv injected (1 μg/μL) for thirty consecutive days. Then, novel object recognition (NOR) and passive avoidance learning (PAL) tests were applied to investigate memory and cognitive performance. Results: Aβ decrease the discrimination index of NOR test. Also, it increases the time spent in the dark compartment during PAL test, as compared with sham and control groups. In addition, compared to Aβ groups, BIMU significantly increased the discrimination index of NOR test and decreased the time spent in the dark compartment of PAL test. Conclusion: These findings suggest that 5-HT4 receptor activation prevents progression of memory and cognitive impairment in a rat model of AD.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, cognition, memory, serotonin receptors

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: Khalid A. Al-Afandy, El-Sayyed El-Rabaie, Osama Salah, Ahmed El-Mhalaway

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This paper presents a high secure data hiding technique using image cropping and Least Significant Bit (LSB) steganography. The predefined certain secret coordinate crops will be extracted from the cover image. The secret text message will be divided into sections. These sections quantity is equal the image crops quantity. Each section from the secret text message will embed into an image crop with a secret sequence using LSB technique. The embedding is done using the cover image color channels. Stego image is given by reassembling the image and the stego crops. The results of the technique will be compared to the other state of art techniques. Evaluation is based on visualization to detect any degradation of stego image, the difficulty of extracting the embedded data by any unauthorized viewer, Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio of stego image (PSNR), and the embedding algorithm CPU time. Experimental results ensure that the proposed technique is more secure compared with the other traditional techniques.

Keywords: steganography, stego, LSB, crop

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: Gansukh Erdenedelger, Doljinsuren Sukhbaatar, Trung Dung Dao, Byeong-Kyu Lee, Han Mo Jeong

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Two kinds of carboxylated thermally reduced graphenes (C-TRGs) having different lateral sizes are examined as a Pickering stabilizer in the suspension polymerization of methyl methacrylate. The size and the shape of the prepared composite particles are irregular due to agglomeration, more evidently when the larger C-TRG is used. In addition, C-TRG is distributed not only on the surface but also inside the composite particles. It indicates that the C-TRG alone is not a stable Pickering agent. However, a very small dosage of acrylic acid remedies all these issues, because acrylic acid interacts with C-TRG and synergizes the stabilizing effect. The compression molded composite of the core/shell poly(methyl methacrylate)/C-TRG particles exhibits a very low percolation threshold of electrical conductivity of 0.03 vol%. It demonstrates that the C-TRG shells of the composite particles effectively form a segregated conductive network throughout the composite.

Keywords: pickering, graphene, polymerization, PMMA

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Authors: Elif Gencturk, Ekin Yurdakul, Ahmet Y. Celik, Senol Mutlu, Kutlu O. Ulgen

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Yeast cells are generally used as a model system of eukaryotes due to their complex genetic structure, rapid growth ability in optimum conditions, easy replication and well-defined genetic system properties. Thus, yeast cells increased the knowledge of the principal pathways in humans. During fermentation, carbohydrates (hexoses and pentoses) degrade into some toxic by-products such as 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF or HMF) and furfural. HMF influences the ethanol yield, and ethanol productivity; it interferes with microbial growth and is considered as a potent inhibitor of bioethanol production. In this study, yeast single cell behavior under HMF application was monitored by using a continuous flow single phase microfluidic platform. Microfluidic device in operation is fabricated by hot embossing and thermo-compression techniques from cyclo-olefin polymer (COP). COP is biocompatible, transparent and rigid material and it is suitable for observing fluorescence of cells considering its low auto-fluorescence characteristic. The response of yeast cells was recorded through Red Fluorescent Protein (RFP) tagged Nop56 gene product, which is an essential evolutionary-conserved nucleolar protein, and also a member of the box C/D snoRNP complexes. With the application of HMF, yeast cell proliferation continued but HMF slowed down the cell growth, and after HMF treatment the cell proliferation stopped. By the addition of fresh nutrient medium, the yeast cells recovered after 6 hours of HMF exposure. Thus, HMF application suppresses normal functioning of cell cycle but it does not cause cells to die. The monitoring of Nop56 expression phases of the individual cells shed light on the protein and ribosome synthesis cycles along with their link to growth. Further computational study revealed that the mechanisms underlying the inhibitory or inductive effects of HMF on growth are enriched in functional categories of protein degradation, protein processing, DNA repair and multidrug resistance. The present microfluidic device can successfully be used for studying the effects of inhibitory agents on growth by single cell tracking, thus capturing cell to cell variations. By metabolic engineering techniques, engineered strains can be developed, and the metabolic network of the microorganism can thus be manipulated such that chemical overproduction of target metabolite is achieved along with the maximum growth/biomass yield.  

Keywords: COP, HMF, ribosome biogenesis, thermoplastic microbioreactor, yeast

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Authors: Xinhuang Wu, Yousef Sardahi

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A hybrid and optimal multi-loop control structure combining linear and nonlinear control algorithms are introduced in this paper to regulate the position of a quadcopter unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) driven by four brushless DC motors. To this end, a nonlinear mathematical model of the UAV is derived and then linearized around one of its operating points. Using the nonlinear version of the model, a sliding mode control is used to derive the control laws of the motor thrust forces required to drive the UAV to a certain position. The linear model is used to design two controllers, XG-controller and YG-controller, responsible for calculating the required roll and pitch to maneuver the vehicle to the desired X and Y position. Three attitude controllers are designed to calculate the desired angular rates of rotors, assuming that the Euler angles are minimal. After that, a many-objective optimization problem involving 20 design parameters and ten objective functions is formulated and solved by HypE (Hypervolume estimation algorithm), one of the widely used many-objective optimization algorithms approaches. Both stability and performance constraints are imposed on the optimization problem. The optimization results in terms of Pareto sets and fronts are obtained and show that some of the design objectives are competing. That is, when one objective goes down, the other goes up. Also, Numerical simulations conducted on the nonlinear UAV model show that the proposed optimization method is quite effective.

Keywords: optimal control, many-objective optimization, sliding mode control, linear control, cascade controllers, UAV, drones

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Authors: Paulo Cumbe

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This work analyzes the economic and environmental impact of the exploitation of forest resources on populations and their sustainability in the regions where it occurs. There is an intensive and continuous activity of charcoal production, in the Massingir and Mabalane districts, in Gaza, Mozambique, to supply the most used fuel that is used by the population of the capital city, Maputo. Charcoal production is one of the sources of income for several families. However, it causes a negative environmental impact on biodiversity. We have analyzed different studies carried out in these communities that measure the speed, the level, and the impact of deforestation involving different actors, to deepen our understanding of this issue. The results of these studies reveal that the degraded area in five years would need one hundred years to be restored, which is unsustainable from an environmental point of view it is. Populations seek new areas for the same practice to maintain their livelihood, progressing with ecosystem degradation and increasing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It is believed that environmental education, creation, and dissemination of new forms of charcoal production that are more profitable and less aggressive to the environment and forest repopulation actions need to be carried out to guarantee the sustainable development of the populations in these regions.

Keywords: deforestation, emissions, sustainability, charcoal

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Authors: Habib Akbarzadeh Bengar, Mohammad Asadi Kiadehi, Ali Rameeh

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The result of the past earthquakes has shown that insufficient amount of stirrups and brittle behavior of concrete lead to the shear and flexural failure in reinforced concrete (RC) members. In this paper, an analytical model proposed to predict the nonlinear behavior of RC and SFRC elements and frames. In this model, some important parameter such as shear effect, varying axial load, and longitudinal bar buckling are considered. The results of analytical model were verified with experimental tests. The results of verification have shown that the proposed analytical model can predict the nonlinear behavior of RC and SFRC members and also frames accurately. In addition, the results have shown that use of steel fibers increased bearing capacity and ductility of RC frame. Due to this enhancement in shear strength and ductility, insufficient amount of stirrups, which resulted in shear failure, can be offset with usage of the steel fibers. In addition to the steps taken, to analyze the effects of fibers percentages on the bearing capacity and ductility of frames parametric studies have been performed to investigate of these effects.

Keywords: nonlinear analysis, SFRC frame, shear failure, varying an axial load

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Gundula Bartzke, Hans-Peter Piepho

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Rainfall is a critical component of climate governing vegetation growth and production, forage availability and quality for herbivores. However, reliable rainfall measurements are not always available, making it necessary to predict rainfall values for particular locations through time. Predicting rainfall in space and time can be a complex and challenging task, especially where the rain gauge network is sparse and measurements are not recorded consistently for all rain gauges, leading to many missing values. Here, we develop a flexible Bayesian model for predicting rainfall in space and time and apply it to Narok County, situated in southwestern Kenya, using data collected at 23 rain gauges from 1965 to 2015. Narok County encompasses the Maasai Mara ecosystem, the northern-most section of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, famous for its diverse and abundant large mammal populations and spectacular migration of enormous herds of wildebeest, zebra and Thomson's gazelle. The model incorporates geographical and meteorological predictor variables, including elevation, distance to Lake Victoria and minimum temperature. We assess the efficiency of the model by comparing it empirically with the established Gaussian process, Kriging, simple linear and Bayesian linear models. We use the model to predict total monthly rainfall and its standard error for all 5 * 5 km grid cells in Narok County. Using the Monte Carlo integration method, we estimate seasonal and annual rainfall and their standard errors for 29 sub-regions in Narok. Finally, we use the predicted rainfall to predict large herbivore biomass in the Maasai Mara ecosystem on a 5 * 5 km grid for both the wet and dry seasons. We show that herbivore biomass increases with rainfall in both seasons. The model can handle data from a sparse network of observations with many missing values and performs at least as well as or better than four established and widely used models, on the Narok data set. The model produces rainfall predictions consistent with expectation and in good agreement with the blended station and satellite rainfall values. The predictions are precise enough for most practical purposes. The model is very general and applicable to other variables besides rainfall.

Keywords: non-stationary covariance function, gaussian process, ungulate biomass, MCMC, maasai mara ecosystem

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Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

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Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

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Authors: Vincent King Soon Wong, Hong Seng Ng, Florinna Sim

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Negative Bias Temperature Instability (NBTI) is one of the critical degradation mechanisms in semiconductor device reliability that causes shift in the threshold voltage (Vth). However, thorough understanding of this reliability failure mechanism is still unachievable due to a recovery characteristic known as NBTI recovery. This paper will demonstrate the severity of NBTI recovery as well as one of the effective methods used to mitigate, which is the minimization of measurement system delays. Comparison was done in between two measurement systems that have significant differences in measurement delays to show how NBTI recovery causes result deviations and how fast measurement systems can mitigate NBTI recovery. Another method to minimize NBTI recovery without the influence of measurement system known as Fast Wafer Level Reliability (FWLR) NBTI was also done to be used as reference.

Keywords: fast vs slow BTI, fast wafer level reliability (FWLR), negative bias temperature instability (NBTI), NBTI measurement system, metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET), NBTI recovery, reliability

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Authors: D. R. Rama Brahma Reddy, A. Vijaya Sarada Reddy

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Nanoparticles represent a promising drug delivery system of controlled and targeted drug release. They are specially designed to release the drug in the vicinity of target tissue. The aim of this study was to prepare and evaluate polymethacrylic acid nanoparticles containing Zidovudine in different drug to polymer ratio by nanoprecipitation method. SEM indicated that nanoparticles have a discrete spherical structure without aggregation. The average particle size was found to be 120 ± 0.02 - 420 ± 0.05 nm. The particle size of the nanoparticles was gradually increased with increase in the proportion of polymethacrylic acid polymer. The drug content of the nanoparticles was increasing on increasing polymer concentration up to a particular concentration. No appreciable difference was observed in the extent of degradation of product during 60 days in which, nanoparticles were stored at various temperatures. FT-IR studies indicated that there was no chemical interaction between drug and polymer and stability of drug. The in-vitro release behavior from all the drug loaded batches was found to be zero order and provided sustained release over a period of 24 h. The developed formulation overcome and alleviates the drawbacks and limitations of Zidovudine sustained release formulations and could possibility be advantageous in terms of increased bio availability of Zidovudine.

Keywords: nanoparticles, zidovudine, biodegradable, polymethacrylic acid

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Authors: Zohreh Khojasteh-Ghamari, Takashi Irohara

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One of the efficient ways in supply chain risk management is avoiding the interruption in Supply Chain (SC) before it occurs. Although the majority of the organizations focus on their first-tier suppliers to avoid risk in the SC, studies show that in only 60 percent of the disruption cases the reason is first tier suppliers. In the 40 percent of the SC disruptions, the reason is downstream SC, which is the second tier and lower. Due to the increasing complexity and interrelation of modern supply chains, the SC elements have become difficult to trace. Moreover, studies show that there is a vital need to better understand the integration of risk and visibility, especially in the context of multiple objectives. In this study, we propose a multi-objective programming model to avoid disruption in SC. The objective of this study is evaluating the effect of downstream SCV on managing supply chain risk. We propose a multi-objective mathematical programming model with the objective functions of minimizing the total cost and maximizing the downstream supply chain visibility (SCV). The decision variable is supplier selection. We assume there are several manufacturers and several candidate suppliers. For each manufacturer, our model proposes the best suppliers with the lowest cost and maximum visibility in downstream supply chain. We examine the applicability of the model by numerical examples. We also define several scenarios for datasets and observe the tendency. The results show that minimum visibility in downstream SC is needed to have a safe SC network.

Keywords: downstream supply chain, optimization, supply chain risk, supply chain visibility

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Authors: Hamed Saremi, Suzan Taghavy, Seyed Mohammad Hanif Sanjari, Mostafa Kahali

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One of the challenges in manufacturing and service companies to provide a product or service is recognized Brand to consumers in target markets. They provide most of their processes under the same capacity. But the constant threat of devastating internal and external resources to prevent a rise Brands and more companies are recognizing the stages are bankrupt. This paper has tried to identify and analyze effective indicators of brand equity and focuses on indicators and presents a model of intelligent create a model to prevent possible damage. In this study, the identified indicators of brand equity are based on literature study and according to expert opinions, set of indicators By techniques DEMATEL Then to used Multi-Step Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference system (ANFIS) to design a multi-stage intelligent system for assessment of brand equity.

Keywords: brand, cosmetic product, ANFIS, DEMATEL

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Authors: M. A. Tayfun, M. A. Alkhalidi

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The exact theoretical expression describing the probability distribution of nonlinear sea-surface elevations derived from the second-order narrowband model has a cumbersome form that requires numerical computations, not well-disposed to theoretical or practical applications. Here, the same narrowband model is re-examined to develop a simpler closed-form approximation suitable for theoretical and practical applications. The salient features of the approximate form are explored, and its relative validity is verified with comparisons to other readily available approximations, and oceanic data.

Keywords: ocean waves, probability distributions, second-order nonlinearities, skewness coefficient, wave steepness

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Authors: Susana Silva, Dora Martins

Abstract:

The recent political, economic, social technological and employment changes significantly affect the tourism organizations and consequently the changing nature of the employment experience of the tourism workforce. Such scene leads several researchers and labor analysts to reflect about what kinds of jobs, knowledge and competences are need to ensure the success to teach, to learning and to work on this sector. In recent years the competency-based approach in high education level has become of significant interest. On the one hand, this approach could leads to the forming of the key students’ competences which contribute their better preparation to the professional future and on the other hand could answer better to practical demands from tourism job market. The goals of this paper are (1) to understand the expectations of university tourism students in relation to the present and future tourism competences demands, (2) to identify the importance put on the soft skills, (3) to know the importance of high qualification to their future professional activity and (4) to explore the students perception about present and future tourist sector specificities. To this proposal, a questionnaire was designed and distributed to every students who participate on classes of Hospitality Management under degree and master from one public Portuguese university. All participants were invited, during December 2014 and September 2015, to answer the questionnaire at the moment and on presence of one researcher of this study. Fulfilled the questionnaire 202 students (72, 35,6% male and 130, 64.4% female), the mean age was 21,64 (SD=5,27), 91% (n=86) were undergraduate and 18 (9%) were master students. 80% (n=162) of our participants refers as a possibility to look for a job outside the country.42% (n=85) prefers to work in a medium-sized tourism units (with 50-249 employees). According to our participants the most valued skills in tourism are the domain of foreign languages (87.6%, n=177), the ability to work as a team (85%), the personal persistence (83%, n=168), the knowledge of the product/services provided (73.8%, n=149), and assertiveness (66.3%, n=134). 65% (n=131) refers the availability to look for a job in a home distance of 1000 kilometers and 59% (n=119) do not consider the possibility to work in another area than tourism. From the results of this study we are in the position of confirming the need for universities to maintain a better link with the professional tourism companies and to rethink some competences into their learning course model. Based on our results students, universities and companies could understand more deeply the motivations, expectations and competences need to build the future career who study and work on the tourism sector.

Keywords: human capital, employability, students’ competencies perceptions, soft skills, tourism

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Authors: Wipassorn Vinicchayakul, Pichaya Supanakoon, Sathaporn Promwong

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A human’s hand localization is revised by using radar cross section (RCS) measurements with a minimum root mean square (RMS) error matching algorithm on a touchless keypad mock-up model. RCS and frequency transfer function measurements are carried out in an indoor environment on the frequency ranged from 3.0 to 11.0 GHz to cover federal communications commission (FCC) standards. The touchless keypad model is tested in two different distances between the hand and the keypad. The initial distance of 19.50 cm is identical to the heights of transmitting (Tx) and receiving (Rx) antennas, while the second distance is 29.50 cm from the keypad. Moreover, the effects of Rx angles relative to the hand of human factor are considered. The RCS input parameters are compared with power loss parameters at each frequency. From the results, the performance of the RCS input parameters with the second distance, 29.50 cm at 3 GHz is better than the others.

Keywords: radar cross section, fingerprint-based localization, minimum root mean square (RMS) error matching algorithm, touchless keypad model

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Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

Abstract:

Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy strategy focuses mainly on generating and utilization of Renewable Energy (RE). The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources on the grid from solar and wind energy were only 8 % of the total energy produced. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the Energy PLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EPM analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EPM simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Hence, the model’s results are in line with the actual 2016 output. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EPM simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was dominant in all months except in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EPM indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that; if the excess power is utilized with a storage mechanism that can stabilize the grid system; as a result, the extra RE generated can be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming energy storage system to synchronize with RE potentials that can be generated from RE.

Keywords: renewable energy, storage, wind, energyplan

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

Abstract:

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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