Search results for: consumer’s risk
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7030

Search results for: consumer’s risk

2740 Brazilian Transmission System Efficient Contracting: Regulatory Impact Analysis of Economic Incentives

Authors: Thelma Maria Melo Pinheiro, Guilherme Raposo Diniz Vieira, Sidney Matos da Silva, Leonardo Mendonça de Oliveira Queiroz, Mateus Sousa Pinheiro, Danyllo Wenceslau de Oliveira Lopes

Abstract:

The present article has the objective to describe the regulatory impact analysis (RIA) of the contracting efficiency of the Brazilian transmission system usage. This contracting is made by users connected to the main transmission network and is used to guide necessary investments to supply the electrical energy demand. Therefore, an inefficient contracting of this energy amount distorts the real need for grid capacity, affecting the sector planning accuracy and resources optimization. In order to provide this efficiency, the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) homologated the Normative Resolution (NR) No. 666, from July 23th of 2015, which consolidated the procedures for the contracting of transmission system usage and the contracting efficiency verification. Aiming for a more efficient and rational transmission system contracting, the resolution established economic incentives denominated as Inefficiency installment for excess (IIE) and inefficiency installment for over-contracting (IIOC). The first one, IIE, is verified when the contracted demand exceeds the established regulatory limit; it is applied to consumer units, generators, and distribution companies. The second one, IIOC, is verified when the distributors over-contract their demand. Thus, the establishment of the inefficiency installments IIE and IIOC intends to avoid the agent contract less energy than necessary or more than it is needed. Knowing that RIA evaluates a regulatory intervention to verify if its goals were achieved, the results from the application of the above-mentioned normative resolution to the Brazilian transmission sector were analyzed through indicators that were created for this RIA to evaluate the contracting efficiency transmission system usage, using real data from before and after the homologation of the normative resolution in 2015. For this, indicators were used as the efficiency contracting indicator (ECI), excess of demand indicator (EDI), and over-contracting of demand indicator (ODI). The results demonstrated, through the ECI analysis, a decrease of the contracting efficiency, a behaviour that was happening even before the normative resolution of 2015. On the other side, the EDI showed a considerable decrease in the amount of excess for the distributors and a small reduction for the generators; moreover, the ODI notable decreased, which optimizes the usage of the transmission installations. Hence, with the complete evaluation from the data and indicators, it was possible to conclude that IIE is a relevant incentive for a more efficient contracting, indicating to the agents that their contracting values are not adequate to keep their service provisions for their users. The IIOC also has its relevance, to the point that it shows to the distributors that their contracting values are overestimated.

Keywords: contracting, electricity regulation, evaluation, regulatory impact analysis, transmission power system

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2739 Simulating Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point Policy for a Repairable Items Inventory System

Authors: Mojahid F. Saeed Osman

Abstract:

Repairable items inventory system is a management tool used to incorporate all information concerning inventory levels and movements for repaired and new items. This paper presents development of an effective simulation model for managing the inventory of repairable items for a production system where production lines send their faulty items to a repair shop considering the stochastic failure behavior and repair times. The developed model imitates the process of handling the on-hand inventory of repaired items and the replenishment of the inventory of new items using Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy in a flexible and risk-free environment. We demonstrate the appropriateness and effectiveness of the proposed simulation model using an illustrative case problem. The developed simulation model can be used as a reliable tool for estimating a healthy on-hand inventory of new and repaired items, backordered items, and downtime due to unavailability of repaired items, and validating and examining Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy, which would further be compared with other ordering strategies as future work.

Keywords: inventory system, repairable items, simulation, maintenance, economic order quantity, reorder point

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
2738 A Probabilistic Theory of the Buy-Low and Sell-High for Algorithmic Trading

Authors: Peter Shi

Abstract:

Algorithmic trading is a rapidly expanding domain within quantitative finance, constituting a substantial portion of trading volumes in the US financial market. The demand for rigorous and robust mathematical theories underpinning these trading algorithms is ever-growing. In this study, the author establishes a new stock market model that integrates the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the statistical arbitrage. The model, for the first time, finds probabilistic relations between the rational price and the market price in terms of the conditional expectation. The theory consequently leads to a mathematical justification of the old market adage: buy-low and sell-high. The thresholds for “low” and “high” are precisely derived using a max-min operation on Bayes’s error. This explicit connection harmonizes the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Statistical Arbitrage, demonstrating their compatibility in explaining market dynamics. The amalgamation represents a pioneering contribution to quantitative finance. The study culminates in comprehensive numerical tests using historical market data, affirming that the “buy-low” and “sell-high” algorithm derived from this theory significantly outperforms the general market over the long term in four out of six distinct market environments.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, behavioral finance, Bayes' decision, algorithmic trading, risk control, stock market

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2737 Decreased Autophagy Contributes to Senescence Induction in HS68 Cells

Authors: Byeal-I Han, Michael Lee

Abstract:

Ageing is associated with an increased risk of diseases such as cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders. Increased autophagy delays ageing and extends longevity. In this study, we investigated the role of autophagy in longevity using human foreskin fibroblast HS68 cells, in which a senescence-like growth arrest can be induced. In particular, cellular senescence is manifested by the irreversible cell cycle arrest, and may contribute to the ageing of organisms. The senescence state was measured with staining for senescence-associated β-galactosidase (SA-β-gal) activity that represents a sensitive and reliable marker to quantify senescent cells. We detected a significantly increased percentage (%) of SA-β-gal positive cells in HS68 cultures at passage 40 (63%) when compared with younger ones at passage 15 (0.5%). As expected, HS68 cells at passage 40 exhibited much lower proliferation rate than cells at passage 15. The basal levels of LC3 were measured by immunoblotting showing a comparison of LC3-I and LC3-II levels at 3 age-points in serially passaged HS68 cells. LC3-II/LC3-I ratio at different passage levels relative to β-actin levels of each band confirmed that cells at passage 34 showed lower conversion of non-autophagic LC3-I to autophagic LC3-II than the cells at passage 16. Furthermore, Cyto-ID autophagy assay also revealed that late passage cells showed lower autophagy than the early passage cells. Together, our findings suggest that senescence induction might be associated with decreased autophagy.

Keywords: ageing, autophagy, senescence, HS68

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2736 Key Success Factors for Malaysian SMES Companies’ Entrepreneurial Leader

Authors: Zainal Abu Zarim, Hafizah Omar Zaki

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to analyse the success factors of entrepreneurs in the Malaysian SMEs in the urge to discover their entrepreneurial leadership characteristics. Data has been collected from top 50 SME award winning companies. The study has used the qualitative approach to data collection, where interviews are dispersed on these selected companies. From these 50 SMEs, only 25 accepted the interview request where one entrepreneur from each SME answered the questions. To successfully run this study, we administered some questions based on Hornaday 42 characteristics of an entrepreneurs, as well some structured questions to determine a successful of a company. The result shows that, entrepreneurs are confident, determine, diligent, flexible, responsive to challenges, responsible, foresight, courageous, aggressive, and committed. Consistent to this, several elements that makes the company successful includes (1) strong financial control, (2) continuous improvement, (3) product quality and product safety as top priority, (4) hard work and team work, and (5) eagerness in taking challenges. These results has deemed that entrepreneurs in many aspects are also leaders that are risk averse and determine, and are eager to work on continuous improvement in a financially strong company.

Keywords: characteristics of entrepreneurs, success of a company, key success factors, Malaysian SMEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 588
2735 The Effectiveness of Herbal Capsules Ethanol Extract of Celery (Apium graveolens L.) and Bulb of Garlic (Allium sativum L.) in Lowering Total Cholesterol Levels in Patients with Hypercholesterolemia

Authors: Anton Bahtiar, Lukas Tjandra Leksana, Fransiscus D. Suyatna

Abstract:

Hypercholesterolemia is one of the major risk factors that can trigger the development of cardiovascular disease, especially coronary heart disease. One of the traditional drugs used for hypercholesterolemia is a combination of herbs celery (Apium graveolens) and garlic (Allium sativum). This study aimed to investigate the effects of the extract on lipid profile in hypercholesterolemic subjects. Subjects consisted of patients with traditional medicine clinic in Jakarta. Each subject received treatment capsules containing herbal extract and placebo capsules. On the 44 subjects, the lipid profile was examined blood levels of total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, and triglycerides. Paired two-tailed t-test was used for the difference between lipid profile of the therapy group and the placebo group. The changes in the lipid profile between the treatment groups and the placebo group for total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, and triglycerides was 14,82 ± 6,946;1.45 ± 2,945;6,98 ± 8,105;2,48 ± 6,504 mg/dL. The herbal extract decrease blood cholesterol and LDL levels significantly (P <0.05).

Keywords: Allium sativum, Apium graveolens, hypercholesterolemia, cholesterol, HDL, LDL

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2734 The Search for an Alternative to Tabarru` in Takaful Models

Authors: Abu Umar Faruq Ahmad, Muhammad Ayub

Abstract:

Tabarru` (unilateral gratuitous contribution) is thought to be the basic concept that distinguishes Takaful from conventional non-Sharīʿah compliant insurance. The Sharīʿah compliance of its current practice has been questioned in the premise that, a) it is a form of commutative contract; b) it is akin to the commercial corporate structure of insurance companies due to following the same marketing strategies, allocation to reserves, sharing of underwriting surplus by the companies one way or the other, providing loans to the Takaful funds, and resultantly absorbing the underwriting losses. The Sharīʿah scholars are of the view that the relationship between participants in Takaful should be in the form of commitment to donate, under which a contributor makes commitments himself to donate a sum of money for mutual help and cooperation on the condition that the balance, if any, should be returned to him. With the aim of finding solutions to the above mentioned concerns and other Sharīʿah related issues the study seeks to investigate whether the Takaful companies are functioning in accordance with the Islamic principles of brotherhood, solidarity, and cooperative risk sharing. Given that it discusses the cooperative model of Takaful to address the current and future Sharīʿah related and legal concerns. The study proposed an alternative model and considers it to best serve the objectives of Takaful which operates on the basis of ta`awun or mutual co-operation.

Keywords: hibah, musharakah ta`awuniyyah, Tabarru`, Takaful

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2733 Understanding the Scope of Architects in Disaster Risk Reduction: The Case of Bhuj

Authors: Sweta Kandari

Abstract:

Predominantly, the conventional role of an architect is to design and construct. However, in a post-disaster scenario, the prevalent role expands and includes many other responsibilities. Agencies collaborating in post-disaster reconstruction face the challenge of building back quickly while requiring them to listen, reflect, develop and deliver as per the needs and requirements of the people. The question of the role of an architect has been extensively discussed in the reconstruction field. Discourses about the role of an architect in post-disaster scenario revolve around the ignorance by the profession, their professional abilities and inabilities. Within this domain, this paper aims at analyzing and recognizing the roles, responsibilities, scope, limitations, skillsets applied and required by an architect while working in a post-disaster situation. Four projects rebuilt after the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India were examined for this research. Based on the analysis of the case study, areas of intervention of an architect in the various stages of rebuilding were identified. It was reinforced that within the areas of intervention identified, there is a vast gap between the prescribed, the prevalent notion and the performed responsibilities of an architect. This paper brings forth the specific gaps in the rebuilding process while exploring and understanding the relationship between various stakeholders that influence the role of an architect.

Keywords: rebuilding, role of an architect, Bhuj, post-disaster

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2732 Micro-Cantilever Tests on Hydride Blister and Zirconium Matrix of Zircaloy-4 Cladding Tube

Authors: Ho-A Kim, Jae-Soo Noh

Abstract:

During reactor operation, hydride blister can occur in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) claddings, and it could worsen the integrity of the claddings locally. Hydride blister can be critical when a pinch-type load is applied in the process of SNF handling and transportation. Micro-cantilever tests were performed to evaluate the risk of local hydride blister by comparing the fracture toughness of local hydride blister and pre-hydrided Zr alloy matrix of SNF cladding on a microscale. Hydride blister was generated by a gaseous charging procedure to simulate an SNF cladding. Micro-cantilevers and pre-cracks were ion-milled with the Ga+ ion beam of FEI Helios 600 at 30kV acceleration voltage. Micro-cantilever tests were conducted using PI 85 pico-indenter (HYSTRON) with for sided conductive diamond flat tip (1 μm x 1 μm) at a speed of 5 nm/sec. The results show that the hydride blister specimen could be fractured in the elastic deformation region, and the fracture toughness of the hydride blister specimen could drop up to 60% of that of the pre-hydrided Zr alloy matrix. Therefore, local hydride blister can degrade the integrity of SNF cladding, and the effect of hydride blister should be taken into account when evaluating failure criteria of claddings during handling, storage, and transportation of SNF.

Keywords: fracture toughness, hydride blister, micro-cantilever test, spent nuclear fuel cladding.

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2731 Isolation of the Leptospira spp. from the Rice Farming Lands in the North of Iran by EMJH Media

Authors: S. Rostampour Yasouri, M. Ghane

Abstract:

Leptospirosis is one the most important common diseases between human and live stock occurred by different species of Leptospira. This disease has been construed as the native in the northern provinces of Iran and risk of the infection with pathogenic is high. One hundred fifteen samples of water (67), soil (36) and feces of rodents (12) were collected from the rice fields of the suburbs of Tonekabon Township situated in northern part of Iran in 2012. The samples, after passage from membranous filters, were cultured in the liquid and solid EMJH medium and incubated at 30°C for 1 month. Leptospira spp. were isolated using culture technique, and the plates were studied from viewpoint of colony formation, microscopic observations and then identified by phenotyping tests. Finally, the identification of Leptospira genus was verified by PCR technique and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Of 115 samples totally, 55 samples (47.82%) became positive by use of the culture technique which the positive cases included 47 water samples (70.14%) and 8 soil samples (22.22%), while the isolation was not accomplished from the sample of the rodents feces. Overall, according to these data, Leptospira spp. exists with high frequency in North Iran. Hence, based on foregoing evidence environments in the north of Iran are vehicles of Leptospira spp.

Keywords: EMJH Medium, Leptospira, Northern of Iran, rice fields

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2730 A Ferutinin Analogue with Enhanced Potency and Selectivity against Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer Cells in vitro

Authors: Remi Safi, Aline Hamade, Najat Bteich, Jamal El Saghir, Mona Diab Assaf, Marwan El-Sabban, Fadia Najjar

Abstract:

Estrogen is considered a risk factor for breast cancer since it promotes breast-cell proliferation. The jaesckeanadiol-3-p-hydroxyphenylpropanoate, a hemi-synthetic analogue of the natural phytoestrogen ferutinin (jaesckeanadiol-p-hydroxybenzoate), is designed to be devoid of estrogenic activity. This analogue induces a cytotoxic effect 30 times higher than that of ferutinin towards MCF-7 breast cancer cell line. We compared these two compounds with respect to their effect on proliferation, cell cycle distribution and cancer stem-like cells in the MCF-7 cell line. Treatment with ferutinin (30 μM) and its analogue (1 μM) produced a significant accumulation of cells at the pre G0/G1 cell cycle phase and triggered apoptosis. Importantly, this compound retains its anti-proliferative activity against breast cancer stem/progenitor cells that are naturally insensitive to ferutinin at the same dose. These results position ferutinin analogue as an effective compound inhibiting the proliferation of estrogen-dependent breast cancer cells and consistently targeting their stem-like cells.

Keywords: ferutinin, hemi-synthetic analogue, breast cancer, estrogen, stem/progenitor cells

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2729 The Rise in Popularity of Online Islamic Fashion In Indonesia: An Economic, Political, and Socio-Anthropological Perspective

Authors: Cazadira Fediva Tamzil, Agung Sulthonaulia Utama

Abstract:

The rise in popularity of Indonesian Islamic fashion displayed and sold through social networking sites, especially Instagram, might seem at first glance like a commonplace and localized phenomenon. However, when analyzed critically, it actually reveals the relations between the global and local Indonesian economy, as well as a deep socio-anthropological dimension relating to religion, culture, class, work, identity. Conducted using a qualitative methodology, data collection technique of literature review, and observation of various social networking sites, this research finds four things that lead to the aforementioned conclusion. First, the rise of online Islamic fashion retailers was triggered by the shift in the structure of global and national Indonesian economy as well as the free access of information made possible by democratization in Indonesia and worldwide advances in terms of technology. All of those factors combined together gave birth to a large amount of middle-class Indonesians with high consumer culture and entrepreneurial flair. Second, online Islamic fashion retailers are the new cultural trendsetters in society. All these show how Indonesians are becoming increasingly pious, no longer only adhere to Western conception of luxury and that many are increasingly exploiting Islam commercial and status-acquiring purposes. Third, the online Islamic fashion retailers actually reveal a shift in the conception of ‘work’ – social media has made work no longer only confined to the toiling activities inside factories, but instead something that can be done from any location only through posting online words or pictures that can increase a fashion product’s capital value. Without realizing it, many celebrities and online retailers who promote Islamic fashion through social media on a daily basis are now also ‘semi-free immaterial labors’ – a slight reconceptualization to Tiziana Terranova’s concept of ‘free labor’ and Maurizio Lazzarato’s ‘immaterial labor’, which basically refer to people who create economic value and thus help out capitals from producing immaterial things with only little compensation in return. Fourth, this research also shows that the diversity of Islamic fashion styles being sold on Instagram reflects the polarized identity of Islam in Indonesia. In stark contrast with the theory which states that globalization always leads to the strengthening and unification of identity, this research shows how polarized the Islamic identity in Indonesia really is – even in the face of globalization.

Keywords: global economy, Indonesian online Islamic fashion, political relations, socio-anthropology

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2728 Insider Fraud and its Risks to FinTechs

Authors: Claire Maillet

Abstract:

Insider fraud, including its various forms such as employee fraud or internal fraud, is a major financial crime threat whereby an employee defrauds (or attempts to defraud) their current, prospective or past employer. ‘Employee’ covers anyone employed by the company, including contractors, agency workers, directors and part time staff. Insider fraud is even more of a concern given the impacts of the Coronavirus pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis, which have generated multiple opportunities to commit insider fraud. Insider fraud is something that is not necessarily thought of as a significant financial crime; Without the face-to-face, ‘over the shoulder’ capabilities of staff being able to keep an eye on their employees, there is a heightened reliance on trust and transparency. With this, naturally, comes an increased risk of insider fraud. Given that the number of FinTechs is on the rise and there is a significant lack of empirically based solutions for reducing insider fraud, these are gaps in the research space that this thesis aims to fill. Finally, Kassem (2022) notes that “academic research plays a crucial role in raising awareness about fraud and researching effective methods for countering it”. Thus, this thesis may be used as an opportune tool to provide an extensive list of controls spanning detection, deterrence and prevention, that are recommended to be implemented to help combat the insider threat.

Keywords: insider fraud, internal fraud, pandemic, Covid-19

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2727 Entrepreneurial Practice and Corruption in Tourism Sector: A Study of Entrepreneurial Orientation and Organizational Corruption in Nepali Star Hotels

Authors: Prabin Raj Gautam

Abstract:

Entrepreneurship in tourism sectors, particularly hotel entrepreneurship has contributed to Nepalese Gross Domestic Production (GDP). The tourist standard and star hotels in developing countries have not only been generating revenues but also providing international hospitality to the guest in the local areas. For doing so, these hotel enterprises must need to implement different business strategies to enhance and maintain their international business benchmark. The Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) is core for making business strategies. Meanwhile, the corruption is labeled as negative factor for economic development. This paper presents the relationship between EO of Nepalese star hotels and organizational corruption. The study employed questionnaire survey as data collection tool under the quantitative methodology. Five hypotheses are developed and tested. After gathering the data form 216 questionnaire distributed to CEOs/Managers of the sample hotels, the findings show that out of five dimensions of EO, only autonomy, pro-activeness, and innovativeness are not significant to organizational corruption; however, risk-taking and competitive aggressiveness are found significant contributor. The descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling are employed to describe the data and fit the model.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial orientation, organizational corruption, dimensions

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2726 NO2 Exposure Effect on the Occurrence of Pulmonary Dysfunction the Police Traffic in Jakarta

Authors: Bambang Wispriyono, Satria Pratama, Haryoto Kusnoputranto, Faisal Yunus, Meliana Sari

Abstract:

Introduction/objective: The impact of the development of motor vehicles is increasing the number of pollutants in the air. One of the substances that cause serious health problems is NO2. The health impacts arising from exposure to NO2 include pulmonary function impairment. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship of NO2 exposure on the incidence of pulmonary function impairment. Methods: We are using a cross-sectional study design with 110 traffic police who were divided into two groups: exposed (police officers working on the highway) and the unexposed group (police officers working in the office). Election subject convenient sampling carried out in each group to the minimum number of samples met. Results: The results showed that the average NO2 in the exposed group was 18.72 ppb and unexposed group is 4.14 ppb. Pulmonary dysfunction on exposed and unexposed groups showed that FVC (Forced Vital Capacity) value are 88.68 and 90.27. And FEV1 (Forced Expiratory Volume in One) value are 94.9 and 95.16. Some variables like waist circumference, Body Mass Index, Visceral Fat, and Fat has associated with the incidence of Pulmonary Dysfunction (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Health monitoring is needed to decreasing health risk in Policeman.

Keywords: NO2, pulmonary dysfunction, police traffic, Jakarta

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2725 Audit on the Use of T-MACS Decision Aid for Patients Presenting to ED with Chest Pain

Authors: Saurav Dhawan, Sanchit Bansal

Abstract:

Background T-MACS is a computer-based decision aid that ‘rules in’ and ‘rules out’ ACS using a combination of the presence or absence of six clinical features with only one biomarker measured on arrival: hs-cTnT. T-MACS had 99.3% negative predictive value and 98.7% sensitivity for ACS, ‘ruling out’ ACS in 40% of patients while ‘ruling in’ 5% at the highest risk. We aim at benchmarking the use of T-MACS which could help to conserve healthcare resources, facilitate early discharges, and ensure safe practice. Methodology Randomized retrospective data collection (n=300) was done from ED electronic records across 3 hospital sites within MFT over a period of 2 months. Data was analysed and compared by percentage for the usage of T-MACS, number of admissions/discharges, and in days for length of stay in hospital. Results MRI A&E had the maximum compliance with the use of T-MACS in the trust at 66%, with minimum admissions (44%) and an average length of stay of 1.825 days. NMG A&E had an extremely low compliance rate (8 %), with 75% admission and 3.387 days as the average length of stay. WYT A&E had no TMACS recorded, with a maximum of 79% admissions and the longest average length of stay at 5.07 days. Conclusion All three hospital sites had a RAG rating of ‘RED’ as per the compliance levels. The assurance level was calculated as ‘Very Limited’ across all sites. There was a positive correlation observed between compliance with TMACS and direct discharges from ED, thereby reducing the average length of stay for patients in the hospital.

Keywords: ACS, discharges, ED, T-MACS

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2724 Change of Endocrine and Exocrine Insufficiency on Non-Diabetes Patients after Distal Pancreatectomy: A Nationwide Database Study

Authors: Jin-Ming Wu, Te-Wei Ho, Yu-Wen Tien

Abstract:

Background: The aim of this population-based study was to determine the occurrence of diabetes and exocrine pancreatic insufficiencies (EPI) on non-diabetes subjects receiving distal pancreatectomy (DP). Method: A nationwide cohort study between 2000 and 2010 was collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Among 3264 DP patients, we identified 1410 non-diabetes and 966 non-diabetes non-EPI. Results. Of 1410 non-diabetes DP subjects, 312 patients (22.1%) developed newly-diagnosed diabetes after PD. On a multiple logistic regression model, co-morbid hyperlipidemia (odds ratio, 1.640; 95% CI, 1.362–2.763; P < 0.001) and pancreatitis (odds ratio, 2.428; 95% CI, 1.889–3.121; P < 0.001) significantly contributed to higher incidences of diabetes after DP. Moreover, 380 subjects (39.3%) developed EPI, and pancreatic cancer is the statistically significant risk factor (odds ratio, 4.663; 95% CI, 2.108–6.085; P < 0.001). Conclusion: The patients with co-morbid hyperlipidemia and chronic pancreatitis had higher rates of newly-diagnosed diabetes after DP, moreover, pancreatic cancer subjects had higher rates of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency after DP. The clinicians should be alert to follow up glucose metabolism and clinical symptoms of fat intolerance for DP patients.

Keywords: distal pancreatectomy, National database, diabetes, exocrine insufficiency

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2723 Conceptual Model Providing More Information on the Contact Situation between Crime Victim and the Police

Authors: M. Inzunza

Abstract:

In contemporary society, victims of crime has been given more recognition, which have contributed to advancing the knowledge on the effects of crime. There exists a complexity of who gets the status of victim and that the typology of good versus bad can interfere with the contact situation of the victim with the police. The aim of this study is to identify the most central areas affecting the contact situation between crime victims and the police to develop a conceptual model to be useful empirically. By considering previously documented problem areas and different theoretical domains, a conceptual model has been developed. Preliminary findings suggest that an area that should be given attention is to get a better understanding of the victim, not only in terms of demographics but also in terms of risk behavior and social network. This area has been considered to influence the status of the crime victim. Another domain of value is the type of crime and the context of the incident in more detail. The police officer approach style in the contact situation is also a pertinent area that is influenced by how the police based victim services are organized and how individual police officers are suited for the mission. Suitability includes constructs from empathy models adapted to the police context and especially focusing on sub-constructs such as perspective taking. Discussion will focus on how these findings can be operationalized in practice and how they are used in ongoing empirical studies.

Keywords: empathy, perspective taking, police contact, victim of crime

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2722 Lean Mass and Fat Mass Distribution in Ukrainian Postmenopausal Women with Abdominal Овesity and Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: V. V. Povoroznyuk, Lar. P. Martynyuk, N. I. Dzerovych, Lil. P. Martyntyuk

Abstract:

Objective: Menopause-related changes in female body are associated with the greater risk of metabolic syndrome (MS), which includes obesity, dyslipidemia, impaired glucose tolerance, hypertension. The aim of our study was to reveal peculiarities of fat and lean mass distribution between postmenopausal women with abdominal obesity and with MS. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 43 postmenopausal 60 – 69 years old women (age: mean = 64,8; S.D. = 0,4); duration of menopause: mean = 14,5; S.D.= 0,9). The diagnosis of MS was considered according to IDF (2005 yr) criteria. Lean and fat mass distrubution were measured by dual-energy X-ray absortiometry, and were compared for the cohorts with and without MS. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package 6.0 (Statsoft). Results: Findings revealed that 24 (55,8 %) of postmenopausal women had MS. In patients with and without MS compared, fat mass was higher in the former group (41248,25±2263,89 and 29817,68±2397,78 respectively; F=11,9; p=0,001) and at different body regions also: gynoid fat (6563,72±348,19 and 5115,21±392,43 respectively; F=7,6; p=0,008), android fat (3815,45±200,8128 and 2798,15±282,79 respectively; F=9,06; p=0,004. Lean mass comparing didn’t show significant differences in female with and without MS (42548,0±1239,18 and 40667,53±1223,78 respectively; F=1,1; p=0,29) and at different body regions also. Conclusion: These findings suggest that in postmenopausal women with MS there is prevalence of fat mass without increasing of lean mass quantity in compare to female with abdominal obesity without MS.

Keywords: lean mass, fat mass, овesity, metabolic syndrome, women, postmenopausal period

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2721 Inhibition of Crystallization Lithiasis Phosphate (Struvite) by Extracts Zea mays

Authors: N. Benahmed, A. Cheriti

Abstract:

Kidney stones of infectious origin, in particular, the phosphate amoniaco-magnesian hexahydrate or struvite are one of the risk factors that most often leads of renal insufficiency. Many plants species, described in pharmacopoeias of several countries is used as a remedy for urinary stones, the latter is a disease resulting from the presence of stones in the kidneys or urinary tract. Our research is based on the existing relationship between the effect of extracts of medicinal plant used for the cure of urinary tract diseases in the region of Algeria south-west on urolithiasis especially Ammonium-Magnesium Phosphate Hexahydrate (Struvite). We have selected Zea mays L. (POACEAE) for this study. On the first stage, we have studied the crystallisation of struvite 'in vitro' without inhibitors, after we have compared to crystallization with inhibitors. Most of The organic and aqueous extracts of this plant give an effect on the crystal size of struvite. It is a very significant reduction in the size of the crystals of struvite in the presence of hexane and ethanol extract (12 to 5-6 μm). We’ve observed a decrease in the size of the aggregates in the presence of all the extracts. This reduction is important for the aqueous, acetone and chloroform extract (45 to 10-16μm). Finally, a deep study was conducted on the effective extract of Zea mays L.; for determine the influence of inhibitory phytochemical compounds.

Keywords: medicinal plants, struvite, urolithiasis, zea mays

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2720 A Study for the Effect of Fire Initiated Location on Evacuation Success Rate

Authors: Jin A Ryu, Hee Sun Kim

Abstract:

As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.

Keywords: fire simulation, evacuation simulation, temperature, evacuation safety

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2719 An Artificial Intelligence Supported QUAL2K Model for the Simulation of Various Physiochemical Parameters of Water

Authors: Mehvish Bilal, Navneet Singh, Jasir Mushtaq

Abstract:

Water pollution puts people's health at risk, and it can also impact the ecology. For practitioners of integrated water resources management (IWRM), water quality modelling may be useful for informing decisions about pollution control (such as discharge permitting) or demand management (such as abstraction permitting). To comprehend the current pollutant load, movement of effective load movement of contaminants generates effective relation between pollutants, mathematical simulation, source, and water quality is regarded as one of the best estimating tools. The current study involves the Qual2k model, which includes manual simulation of the various physiochemical characteristics of water. To this end, various sensors could be installed for the automatic simulation of various physiochemical characteristics of water. An artificial intelligence model has been proposed for the automatic simulation of water quality parameters. Models of water quality have become an effective tool for identifying worldwide water contamination, as well as the ultimate fate and behavior of contaminants in the water environment. Water quality model research is primarily conducted in Europe and other industrialized countries in the first world, where theoretical underpinnings and practical research are prioritized.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, QUAL2K, simulation, physiochemical parameters

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2718 Geochemistry of Nutrients in the South Lagoon of Tunis, Northeast of Tunisia, Using Multivariable Methods

Authors: Abidi Myriam, Ben Amor Rim, Gueddari Moncef

Abstract:

Understanding ecosystem response to the restoration project is essential to assess its rehabilitation. Indeed, the time elapsed after restoration is a critical indicator to shows the real of the restoration success. In this order, the south lagoon of Tunis, a shallow Mediterranean coastal area, has witnessed several pollutions. To resolve this environmental problem, a large restoration project of the lagoon was undertaken. In this restoration works, the main changes are the decrease of the residence time of the lagoon water and the nutrient concentrations. In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the trophic state of lagoon water for evaluating the risk of eutrophication after almost 16 years of its restoration. To attend this objectives water quality monitoring was untaken. In order to identify and to analyze the natural and anthropogenic factor governing the nutrients concentrations of lagoon water geochemical methods and multivariate statistical tools were used. Results show that nutrients have duel sources due to the discharge of municipal wastewater of Megrine City in the south side of the lagoon. The Carlson index shows that the South lagoon of Tunis Lagoon Tunis is eutrophic, and may show limited summer anoxia.

Keywords: geochemistry, nutrients, statistical analysis, the south lagoon of Tunis, trophic state

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2717 Analysis of Microbiological Quality and Detection of Antibiotic Residue in Bovine Raw Milk Produced in Blida State, Algeria

Authors: M. N. Boukhatem, M. A. Ferhat, K. Mansour

Abstract:

Bovine raw milk represents a favorable environment for the growth of several food-spoilage strains and some pathogens. It must meet stringent standards to ensure the highest microbiological and toxicological qualities.In order to assess the microbiological risks associated with the consumption of this food, we conducted this study to determine the microbiological quality of bovine raw milk (54 samples) commercialized at the state of Blida (Algeria). The samples analyzed were unsatisfactory in terms of total flora where 61.11% of samples were considered as non acceptable in terms of quality standards, fecal coliforms (40.74%), fecal streptococci (55.55%) and staphylococci (74.07%). Salmonella and Clostridium strains were not detected in all the samples. Furthermore, antibiotic residues were found in 26% of analysed samples. These results reflect non-compliance with the rules of good hygiene practices at milking, storage, transportatio, and sale of milk. Bovine raw milk consumed presents a serious health risk to the population of the study areas.The livestock coaching actors and dissemination of good hygiene practices throughout the production chain are needed to improve the quality of local milk.

Keywords: bovine raw milk, microbiological quality, fecal coliforms, antibiotic residue, Blida state

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2716 CLOUD Japan: Prospective Multi-Hospital Study to Determine the Population-Based Incidence of Hospitalized Clostridium difficile Infections

Authors: Kazuhiro Tateda, Elisa Gonzalez, Shuhei Ito, Kirstin Heinrich, Kevin Sweetland, Pingping Zhang, Catia Ferreira, Michael Pride, Jennifer Moisi, Sharon Gray, Bennett Lee, Fred Angulo

Abstract:

Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) is the most common cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhea and infectious diarrhea in healthcare settings. Japan has an aging population; the elderly are at increased risk of hospitalization, antibiotic use, and C. difficile infection (CDI). Little is known about the population-based incidence and disease burden of CDI in Japan although limited hospital-based studies have reported a lower incidence than the United States. To understand CDI disease burden in Japan, CLOUD (Clostridium difficile Infection Burden of Disease in Adults in Japan) was developed. CLOUD will derive population-based incidence estimates of the number of CDI cases per 100,000 population per year in Ota-ku (population 723,341), one of the districts in Tokyo, Japan. CLOUD will include approximately 14 of the 28 Ota-ku hospitals including Toho University Hospital, which is a 1,000 bed tertiary care teaching hospital. During the 12-month patient enrollment period, which is scheduled to begin in November 2018, Ota-ku residents > 50 years of age who are hospitalized at a participating hospital with diarrhea ( > 3 unformed stools (Bristol Stool Chart 5-7) in 24 hours) will be actively ascertained, consented, and enrolled by study surveillance staff. A stool specimen will be collected from enrolled patients and tested at a local reference laboratory (LSI Medience, Tokyo) using QUIK CHEK COMPLETE® (Abbott Laboratories). which simultaneously tests specimens for the presence of glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) and C. difficile toxins A and B. A frozen stool specimen will also be sent to the Pfizer Laboratory (Pearl River, United States) for analysis using a two-step diagnostic testing algorithm that is based on detection of C. difficile strains/spores harboring toxin B gene by PCR followed by detection of free toxins (A and B) using a proprietary cell cytotoxicity neutralization assay (CCNA) developed by Pfizer. Positive specimens will be anaerobically cultured, and C. difficile isolates will be characterized by ribotyping and whole genomic sequencing. CDI patients enrolled in CLOUD will be contacted weekly for 90 days following diarrhea onset to describe clinical outcomes including recurrence, reinfection, and mortality, and patient reported economic, clinical and humanistic outcomes (e.g., health-related quality of life, worsening of comorbidities, and patient and caregiver work absenteeism). Studies will also be undertaken to fully characterize the catchment area to enable population-based estimates. The 12-month active ascertainment of CDI cases among hospitalized Ota-ku residents with diarrhea in CLOUD, and the characterization of the Ota-ku catchment area, including estimation of the proportion of all hospitalizations of Ota-ku residents that occur in the CLOUD-participating hospitals, will yield CDI population-based incidence estimates, which can be stratified by age groups, risk groups, and source (hospital-acquired or community-acquired). These incidence estimates will be extrapolated, following age standardization using national census data, to yield CDI disease burden estimates for Japan. CLOUD also serves as a model for studies in other countries that can use the CLOUD protocol to estimate CDI disease burden.

Keywords: Clostridium difficile, disease burden, epidemiology, study protocol

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2715 Artificial Neural Network and Statistical Method

Authors: Tomas Berhanu Bekele

Abstract:

Traffic congestion is one of the main problems related to transportation in developed as well as developing countries. Traffic control systems are based on the idea of avoiding traffic instabilities and homogenizing traffic flow in such a way that the risk of accidents is minimized and traffic flow is maximized. Lately, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) has become an important area of research to solve such road traffic-related issues for making smart decisions. It links people, roads and vehicles together using communication technologies to increase safety and mobility. Moreover, accurate prediction of road traffic is important to manage traffic congestion. The aim of this study is to develop an ANN model for the prediction of traffic flow and to compare the ANN model with the linear regression model of traffic flow predictions. Data extraction was carried out in intervals of 15 minutes from the video player. Video of mixed traffic flow was taken and then counted during office work in order to determine the traffic volume. Vehicles were classified into six categories, namely Car, Motorcycle, Minibus, mid-bus, Bus, and Truck vehicles. The average time taken by each vehicle type to travel the trap length was measured by time displayed on a video screen.

Keywords: intelligent transport system (ITS), traffic flow prediction, artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression

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2714 A Principal-Agent Model for Sharing Mechanism in Integrated Project Delivery Context

Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasingly attention from construction industry because of its efficiency of solving adversarial problems and reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, some evidence showed that some project participants obtained less profit from IPD projects than the typical projects. They attributed it to the unfair IPD sharing mechanism, which resulted in additional time and cost of negotiation on the sharing fractions among project participants. The study is aimed to investigate the reward distribution by constructing a principal-agent model. Based on cooperative game theory, it is examined how to distribute the shared project rewards between client and non-client parties, and identify the sharing fractions among non-client parties. It is found that at least half of the project savings should be allocated to the non-client parties to motivate them to create more project value. Second, the client should raise his sharing fractions when the integration among project participants is efficient. In addition, the client should allocate higher sharing fractions to the non-client party who is more able. This study can help the IPD project participants make fair and motivated sharing mechanisms.

Keywords: cooperative game theory, IPD, principal agent model, sharing mechanism

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2713 Bituminous Geomembranes: Sustainable Products for Road Construction and Maintenance

Authors: Ines Antunes, Andrea Massari, Concetta Bartucca

Abstract:

Greenhouse gasses (GHG) role in the atmosphere has been well known since the 19th century; however, researchers have begun to relate them to climate changes only in the second half of the following century. From this moment, scientists started to correlate the presence of GHG such as CO₂ with the global warming phenomena. This has raised the awareness not only of those who were experts in this field but also of public opinion, which is becoming more and more sensitive to environmental pollution and sustainability issues. Nowadays the reduction of GHG emissions is one of the principal objectives of EU nations. The target is an 80% reduction of emissions in 2050 and to reach the important goal of carbon neutrality. Road sector is responsible for an important amount of those emissions (about 20%). The most part is due to traffic, but a good contribution is also given directly or indirectly from road construction and maintenance. Raw material choice and reuse of post-consumer plastic rather than a cleverer design of roads have an important contribution to reducing carbon footprint. Bituminous membranes can be successfully used as reinforcement systems in asphalt layers to improve road pavement performance against cracking. Composite materials coupling membranes with grids and/or fabrics should be able to combine improved tensile properties of the reinforcement with stress absorbing and waterproofing effects of membranes. Polyglass, with its brand dedicated to road construction and maintenance called Polystrada, has done more than this. The company's target was not only to focus sustainability on the final application but also to implement a greener mentality from the cradle to the grave. Starting from production, Polyglass has made important improvements finalized to increase efficiency and minimize waste. The installation of a trigeneration plant and the usage of selected production scraps inside the products as well as the reduction of emissions into the environment, are one of the main efforts of the company to reduce impact during final product build-up. Moreover, the benefit given by installing Polystrada products brings a significant improvement in road lifetime. This has an impact not only on the number of maintenance or renewal that needs to be done (build less) but also on traffic density due to works and road deviation in case of operations. During the end of the life of a road, Polystrada products can be 100% recycled and milled with classical systems used without changing the normal maintenance procedures. In this work, all these contributions were quantified in terms of CO₂ emission thanks to an LCA analysis. The data obtained were compared with a classical system or a standard production of a membrane. What it is possible to see is that the usage of Polyglass products for street maintenance and building gives a significant reduction of emissions in case of membrane installation under the road wearing course.

Keywords: CO₂ emission, LCA, maintenance, sustainability

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2712 Thyroid Hormones and Thyrotropin Status in Nepalese Postmenopausal Women

Authors: S. A. Khan, B. Mishra, O. Sherchan

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Background and Aims: Thyroid disorder is the most common endocrine disorder after diabetes mellitus. Females are more vulnerable to this disease, and old age is an important risk factor. This study was undertaken to investigate the burden of thyroid disorder in Nepalese postmenopausal women. Methods: In the present cross-sectional study, we included 271 post-menopausal women. Three ml of blood was collected following standard protocol after taking the written consent. Serum was separated and analyzed for free T3, free T4, and Thyroid Stimulating Hormone (TSH) by Chemiluminescence Immunoassay (CLIA) method in Snibe Maglumi 1000 analyzer. Data obtained was analyzed in SPSS Version 21. P < 0.05 was set for statistical significant at 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Results: Majority of the participants belong to Janjati (46.5%) ethnicity, followed by Brahmin/Chhetri (41.7%), residing either in urban or suburban locality. Most of them were non-vegetarian, non-smoker, and non-alcoholic. Subjects were divided into hyperthyroid (TSH < 0.3 uIU/ml), hypothyroid (TSH > 4.5 uIU/ml), and euthyroid (TSH=0.3-4.5 uIU/ml) based on TSH value. We reported 10.3% hyperthyroid and 29.2% hypothyroid cases. TSH was significantly correlated with T3 (r=-0.244; p < 0.001) T4 (r=-0.398; p < 0.001); age (r=-0.138; p=0.023) and BMI (r=0.123; p=0.043). Multiple linear regression model for TSH reveals only T3 and T4 were significantly associated with TSH (p < 0.001; p=0.001). Conclusion: To conclude, nearly 39.5% of the postmenopausal women had thyroid disorder. Postmenopausal women are vulnerable to thyroid disorder; therefore, requires regular thyroid monitoring.

Keywords: thyroid stimulating hormone, TSH, T3, T4, thyroid disorder

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2711 The Use of Actoprotectors by Professional Athletes

Authors: Kalin Ivanov, Stanislava Ivanova

Abstract:

Actoprotectors are substances with hight performance enchasing potential and hight antioxidant activity. Most of these drugs have been developed in USSR for military medicine purposes. Based on their chemical composition actoprotectors could be classified into three categories: benzimidazole derivatives (ethomersol, bemitil); adamantane derivatives (bromantane), other chemical classes. First data for intake of actoprotectors from professional athletes is from 1980. The daily intake of actoprotectors demonstrate many benefits for athletes like: positive effect on the efficiency of physical work, antihypoxic effects, antioxidant effects, nootropic effects, rapid recovery. Since 1997, bromantane is considered as doping. This is a result of Summer Olympic Games in Athlanta (1996) when several Russian athletes tested positive for bramantane. Even the drug is safe for athletes health its use is considered as violation of anti- doping rules. More than 37 years bemetil has been used by professional athletes with no risk but currently it is included in WADA monitoring programme for 2018. Current perspectives are that most used actoprotectors would be considered as doping. Many clinical studies have confirmed that intake of bemitil and bromantan demonstrate positive influence on the physical work capacity but data for other actoprotectors like chlodantane, ademol, ethomersol is limited.

Keywords: actoprotector, sport, doping, bemitil

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