Search results for: sales forecasting of innovations

Authors: Reena Aggarwal

Abstract:

Wall art is a manifestation of the human mind and an absorbing form of cultural expression. Solapur wall hanging making art reflects cultural values, regional sensibilities, beliefs, and identity and helps to preserve the many different communities. The tango of warp and weft in many ways than one tells the story of civilization itself. Solapur wall hanging is a poem in multicolor, written with the warp and weft having long, rich, and complex history with indigenous design vocabularies made by the Padmasali communities. The wall-hanging weaving of Solapur has remained unaltered for years, from being very basic and monochrome having landscapes and portraits catering only to the local market, thereby becoming a potential family income generation tool. The study focuses on the need for contemporization of the Solapur wall hanging and also deliberates on the fact that wherever the culture of native people has been aided by intervention, in nearly every case, the quality of their craft has began to be enhanced. The study also found the underlying reason for diminishing sales to a declining market, low sales, lack of innovation in design, and product development. Keeping in mind that the artisans of Solapur have heroically always hold on to their ancient beliefs and practices, which give them strength and identity, and a sense of pride, an intervention program was developed with an objective of widening the market and help artisans have a sustaining income which include urban consumers and create designs suitable for the urban market. The process of defining and measuring the advantages of design intervention was achieved by using qualitative research methods. An ethnographic research methodology was adopted, which includes six months of close interface with artisans from ten families engaged in making of wall hanging in Solapur. Design solutions were proposed in terms of product diversification and design extensions of the existing product line for increased variety. A collection of contemporary wall arts (wall decor) and room dividers were designed and developed.

Keywords: wall hanging, Solapur, contemporization, traditional, sustainable

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Teles de Sales Bezerra, Saulo Aislan da Silva Eleuterio, José Anderson Rodrigues de Souza, Jeronimo Silva Rocha

Abstract:

Propagation in radio frequency is a constant concern in the application of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), the behavior of an environment determines how good the quality of signal reception. The objective of this paper is to analyze the behavior of a WSN in an environment for agriculture where environmental variables are present and correlate the capture of values received signal strength (RSSI) with a propagation model.

Keywords: propagation, WSN, agriculture, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 741

Authors: M. Lu

Abstract:

The paper presents part of the results of EU-funded projects: SoCool@EU (Sustainable Organisation between Clusters Of Optimized Logistics @ Europe), DG-RTD (Research and Innovation), Regions of Knowledge Programme (FP7-REGIONS-2011-1). It will provide an in-depth review of emerging technologies for further improving urban mobility and freight transport systems, such as (information and physical) infrastructure, ICT-based Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), vehicles, advanced logistics, and services. Furthermore, the paper will provide an analysis of the barriers and will review business models for the market uptake of innovations. From a perspective of science and technology, the challenges of urbanization could be mainly handled through adequate (human-oriented) solutions for urban planning, sustainable energy, the water system, building design and construction, the urban transport system (both physical and information aspects), and advanced logistics and services. Implementation of solutions for these domains should be follow a highly integrated and balanced approach, a silo approach should be avoided. To develop a sustainable urban transport system (for people and goods), including inter-hubs and intra-hubs, a holistic view is needed. To achieve a sustainable transport system for people and goods (in terms of cost-effectiveness, efficiency, environment-friendliness and fulfillment of the mobility, transport and logistics needs of the society), a proper network and information infrastructure, advanced transport systems and operations, as well as ad hoc and seamless services are required. In addition, a road map for an enhanced urban transport system until 2050 will be presented. This road map aims to address the challenges of urban transport, and to provide best practices in inter-city and intra-city environments from various perspectives, including policy, traveler behaviour, economy, liability, business models, and technology.

Keywords: synchromodality, multimodal transport, logistics, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Gökhan Karhan, Yavuz Elitok

Abstract:

Nowadays, inequality between developing and underdeveloped countries has a rapid increment. Developed countries impress the underdeveloped countries to become dependent through them. For that reason, Turkey has to increase its capability of making technological innovations. It has tried to be identified by examining the expenses of R&D in public, mercantile establishments and universities in Turkey that which expense is not enough and which expense should be doubled. As a result, developing new resolution strategies will be easier.

Keywords: competitive strength, research and development, technological innovation, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Azhar Abdul Rahman

Abstract:

This paper examines the readability of the chairman’s narratives, as determined by the Flesch score, of a Malaysian public listed company’s corporate reports from 1962 to 2009. It partially supports earlier studies which demonstrated that corporate reports were difficult to read, and had shown very negligible decrease in difficulty over time. Net profit to sales and readability was significantly positively correlated but number of financial statements was significantly negatively correlated with readability.

Keywords: chairman’s narratives, corporate communications, readability, longitudinal

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

Abstract:

In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

Abstract:

With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Anucha Wittayakorn-Puripunpinyoo

Abstract:

The research objectives were 1) to study the situation and its trend of agricultural product export of Thailand 2) to study the impact of agricultural product export on income of Thai economy 3) the impact of agricultural product export on employment of Thai economy and 4) to find out the recommendations of agricultural product export policy of Thailand. In this research, secondary data were collected as yearly time series data from 1990 to 2016 accounted for 27 years. Data were collected from the Bank of Thailand database. Primary data were collected from the steakholders of agricultural product export policy of Thailand. Data analysis was applied descriptive statistics such as arithmetic mean, standard deviation. The forecasting of agricultural product was applied Mote Carlo Simulation technique as well as time trend analysis. In addition, the impact of agricultural product export on income and employment by applying econometric model while the estimated parameters were utilized the ordinary least square technique. The research results revealed that 1) agricultural product export value of Thailand from 1990 to 2016 was 338,959.5 Million Thai baht with its growth rate of 4.984 percent yearly, in addition, the forecasting of agricultural product export value of Thailand has increased but its growth rate has been declined 2) the impact of agricultural product export has positive impact on income in Thai economy, increasing in agricultural product export of Thailand by 1 percent would lead income increased by 0.0051 percent 3) the impact of agricultural product export has positive impact on employment in Thai economy, increasing in agricultural product export of Thailand by 1 percent would lead income increased by 0.079 percent and 4) in the future, agricultural product export policy would focused on finished or semi-finished agricultural product instead of raw material by applying technology and innovation in to make value added of agricultural product export. The public agricultural product export policy would support exporters in private sector in order to encourage them as agricultural exporters in Thailand.

Keywords: agricultural product export, income, employment, Thai economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Charles Amoatey, Ebenezer Kumah

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of implementation of Distributor Management Solution (DMS) on supply chain performance in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry in Ghana. Methodology: A purposive sampling approach was used in selecting the respondents for the study. Data was collected from senior management and field supervisors from sales, distribution and customer service units of the case study firm and its channel members. This study made use of systematic literature review and results of survey data analysis to assess how information system has been used to improve supply chain performance. Findings: Results from the study showed that the critical effect factors from implementation of a DMS include (1) Obtain prompt and reliable feedback from the market; (2) Building the capacity and skills levels of employees as well as 3rd Party Agents; (3) Motivated top management to invest in MIS; and (4) Performance improvement in sales route management. The most critical challenges to an effective and sustainable MIS implementation are lack of enough trained IT employees and high barriers to cultural change especially with distributors. The paper recommends consistent investment in IS infrastructure and development of IT skills. Research limitations/implications: This study contributes to the literature by exploring the effects of distribution management solution implementation and supply chain performance in a developing country context. Considering the fact that this study is based on data from only one case study firm and its channel members, generalization of the results should be treated with caution. Practical implications: The findings have confirmed the benefits of implementing a Management Information System. The result should encourage channel members to allocate adequate resources for building MIS capacity to enhance their supply chain performance. Originality/Value: In this paper, the relationship between DMS/MIS implementation and improvement in supply chain performance, in the Ghanaian context, has been established.

Keywords: distributor management solution, fast-moving consumer goods, supply chain management, information systems, Ghana

Procedia PDF Downloads 553

Authors: Seher Arslankaya, Bahar Uludağ

Abstract:

Meeting the needs and demands of customers and pleasing the customers are important requirements for companies in food sectors where the growth of competition is significantly unpredictable. Customer satisfaction is also one of the key concepts which is mainly driven by wide range of customer preference and expectation upon products and services introduced and delivered to them. In order to meet the customer demands, the companies that engage in food sectors are expected to have a well-managed set of Total Quality Management (TQM), which sets out to improve quality of products and services; to reduce costs and to increase customer satisfaction by restructuring traditional management practices. It aims to increase customer satisfaction by meeting (their) customer expectations and requirements. The achievement would be determined with the help of customer satisfaction surveys, which is done to obtain immediate feedback and to provide quick responses. In addition, the surveys would also assist the making of strategic planning which helps to anticipate customer future needs and expectations. Meanwhile, periodic measurement of customer satisfaction would be a must because with the better understanding of customers perceptions from the surveys (done by questioners), the companies would have a clear idea to identify their own strengths and weaknesses that help the companies keep their loyal customers; to stand in comparison toward their competitors and map out their future progress and improvement. In this study, we propose a survey based on customer satisfaction measurement method and its statistical analysis for sales and logistic activities of food firms. Customer satisfaction would be discussed in details. Furthermore, after analysing the data derived from the questionnaire that applied to customers by using the SPSS software, various results obtained from the application would be presented. By also applying ANOVA test, the study would analysis the existence of meaningful differences between customer demographic proportion and their perceptions. The purpose of this study is also to find out requirements which help to remove the effects that decrease customer satisfaction and produce loyal customers in food industry. For this purpose, the customer complaints are collected. Additionally, comments and suggestions are done according to the obtained results of surveys, which would be useful for the making-process of strategic planning in food industry.

Keywords: customer satisfaction measurement and analysis, food industry, SPSS, TQM

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Mustafa İlhan Akbaş, Özlem Garibay, Ivan Garibay

Abstract:

The economic entities in innovation ecosystems form various industry clusters, in which they compete and cooperate to survive and grow. Within a successful and stable industry cluster, the entities acquire different roles that complement each other in the system. The universities and research centers have been accepted to have a critical role in these systems for the creation and development of innovations. However, the real effect of research institutions on regional economic growth is difficult to assess. In this paper, we present our approach for the identification of the impact of research activities on the regional entrepreneurship for a specific high-tech industry: optics and photonics. The optics and photonics has been defined as an enabling industry, which combines the high-tech photonics technology with the developing optics industry. The recent literature suggests that the growth of optics and photonics firms depends on three important factors: the embedded regional specializations in the labor market, the research and development infrastructure, and a dynamic small firm network capable of absorbing new technologies, products and processes. Therefore, the role of each factor and the dynamics among them must be understood to identify the requirements of the entrepreneurship activities in optics and photonics industry. There are three main contributions of our approach. The recent studies show that the innovation in optics and photonics industry is mostly located around metropolitan areas. There are also studies mentioning the importance of research center locations and universities in the regional development of optics and photonics industry. These studies are mostly limited with the number of patents received within a short period of time or some limited survey results. Therefore the first contribution of our approach is conducting a comprehensive analysis for the state and recent history of the photonics and optics research in the US. For this purpose, both the research centers specialized in optics and photonics and the related research groups in various departments of institutions (e.g. Electrical Engineering, Materials Science) are identified and a geographical study of their locations is presented. The second contribution of the paper is the analysis of regional entrepreneurship activities in optics and photonics in recent years. We use the membership data of the International Society for Optics and Photonics (SPIE) and the regional photonics clusters to identify the optics and photonics companies in the US. Then the profiles and activities of these companies are gathered by extracting and integrating the related data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database, ES-202 database and the data sets from the regional photonics clusters. The number of start-ups, their employee numbers and sales are some examples of the extracted data for the industry. Our third contribution is the utilization of collected data to investigate the impact of research institutions on the regional optics and photonics industry growth and entrepreneurship. In this analysis, the regional and periodical conditions of the overall market are taken into consideration while discovering and quantifying the statistical correlations.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, industrial clusters, optics, photonics, emerging industries, research centers

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Bryan Low

Abstract:

In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable environmental challenge -achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, the Maritime Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has worked to establish green shipping and digital corridors with ports of several other countries around the world where ships will use low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia for power generation. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, fuels like ammonia will also introduce a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unlikely scenario of a spill. While numerous modelling studies have been conducted for oil spills and their associated environmental impact on coastal and marine ecosystems, ammonia spills are comparatively less well understood. For example, there is a knowledge gap regarding how the complex hydrodynamic conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion of a hypothetical ammonia plume, which has different physical and chemical properties compared to an oil slick. Chemically, ammonia can be absorbed by phytoplankton, thus altering the balance of the marine nitrogen cycle. Biologically, ammonia generally serves the role of a nutrient in coastal ecosystems at lower concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, it has been found to be toxic to many local species. It may also have the potential to trigger eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (HABs) in coastal waters, depending on local hydrodynamic conditions. Thus, the key objective of this research paper is to support the development of a model-based forecasting system that can predict ammonia plume behaviour in coastal waters, given prevailing hydrodynamic conditions and their environmental impact. This will be essential as ammonia bunkering becomes more commonplace in Singapore’s ports and around the world. Specifically, this system must be able to assess the HAB-triggering potential of an ammonia plume, as well as its lethal and sub-lethal toxic effects on local species. This will allow the relevant authorities to better plan risk mitigation measures or choose a time window with the ideal hydrodynamic conditions to conduct ammonia bunkering operations with minimal risk. In this paper, we present the first part of such a forecasting system: a jointly coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that can capture how advection-diffusion processes driven by ocean currents influence plume behaviour and how the plume interacts with the marine nitrogen cycle. The model is then applied to various ammonia spill scenarios where the results are discussed in the context of current ammonia toxicity guidelines, impact on local ecosystems, and mitigation measures for future bunkering operations conducted in the Singapore Straits.

Keywords: ammonia bunkering, forecasting, harmful algal blooms, hydrodynamics, marine nitrogen cycle, oceanography, water quality modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Álvaro Turriago-Hoyos

Abstract:

Most research tends to see innovation as an explanatory factor in achieving high levels of competitiveness and productivity. More recent studies have begun to analyze the determinants of innovation in the services sector as opposed to the much-discussed industrial sector of a country’s economy. This research paper focuses on the services sector in Colombia, one of Latin America’s fastest growing and biggest economies. Over the past decade, much of Colombia’s economic expansion has relied on commodity exports (mainly oil and coffee) whilst the industrial sector has performed relatively poorly. Such developments highlight the potential of the innovative role played by the services sector of the Colombian economy and its future growth prospects. This research paper analyzes the relationship between inputs, which at the same time are internal sources of innovation (such as R&D activities), and external sources that are improved by technology acquisition. The outputs are basically the four kinds of innovation that the OECD Oslo Manual recognizes: product, process, marketing and organizational innovations. The instrument used to measure this input-output relationship is based on Knowledge Production Function approaches. We run Probit models in order to identify the existing relationships between the above inputs and outputs, but also to identify spill-overs derived from interactions of the components of the value chain of the services firms analyzed: customers, suppliers, competitors, and complementary firms. Data are obtained from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics for the period 2008 to 2013 published in the II and III Colombian National Innovation Survey. A short summary of the results obtained lead to conclude that firm size and a firm’s level of technological development turn out to be important discriminating factors for the description of the innovative process at the firm level. The model’s outcomes show a positive impact on the probability of introducing any kind of innovation both on R&D and Technology Acquisition investment. Also, cooperation agreements with customers, research institutes, competitors, and the suppliers are significant. Belonging to a particular industrial group is an important determinant but only to product and organizational innovation. It is possible to establish that Health Services, Education, Computer, Wholesale trade, and Financial Intermediation are the ISIC sectors, which report the highest number of frequencies of the considered set of firms. Those five sectors of the sixteen considered, in all cases, explained more than half of the total of all kinds of innovations. Product Innovation, which is followed by Marketing Innovation, gets the highest results. Displaying the same set of firms distinguishing by size, and belonging to high and low tech services sector shows that the larger the firms the larger a number of innovations, but also that always high-tech firms show a better innovation performance.

Keywords: Colombia, determinants of innovation, innovation, services sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Sitaram Dahal

Abstract:

Sustainable Development, a universal need for the present generation and the future generation, is an accepted way to assure intra and inter-generational equity. International movements like Rio Earth Summit 1992, Stockholm Conference 1972, Kyoto Protocol, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proclaim the need of sustainable globe. The socio- economic disparity prevailing in the society shows that the indigenous peoples are living life far below poverty line. These indigenous people, aboriginal social groups sharing common cultural values and with a unique identity, are away from development being merely focused on the growth. Though studies suggest that most of the indigenous practices are often environment-friendly, alert about the plunging trend of the practices. This study explores the trend of intergenerational transmission of indigenous profession of pottery making of Kumal community (Meghauli Village Development Committee of Chitwan district) and factors affecting the trend. The SD indicators - contribution of IP to well-being of pottery makers had been query in the study. The study reveals that the pottery making profession can stand sustainable in terms of environment and socio-economic capital compared to modern technologies. However, the number of practitioners has been decreasing and youths hardly show interest to continue their indigenous profession. The new generations are not in a stage of accepting pottery in complete profession, that challenges the social and cultural sustainability of the profession. Indigenous profession demand people investments over modern technology and innovations. The relative investment of human labour is dramatically high with the indigenous profession. In addition, the fashion and innovations of market rule challenge the sustainability of the pottery making profession. The practice is limited to small cluster as a show piece at present. The study illustrates the market driven unsustainability of indigenous profession of Kumal community.

Keywords: professional unsustainability, pottery making, Kumal Community, Indigenous Professoin

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: R. Knizek, D. Karhankova

Abstract:

The production of nanofibers and the machinery for their production is a current issue. The pioneer, in the industrial production of nanofibers, is the machinery with the sales descriptions Nanospider^TM from the company Elmarco, which came into being in 2008. Most of the production facilities, like Nanospider^TM, use electrospinning. There are also other methods of industrial production of nanofibers, such as the centrifugal spinning process, which is used by FibeRio Technology Corporation. However, each method and machine has its advantages, but also disadvantages and that is the reason why a new machine called as Nanomachine, which eliminates the disadvantages of other production facilities producing nanofibers, has been developed.

Keywords: nanomachine, nanospider, spinning slat, electrospinning

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Devasheesh Mathur

Abstract:

The presentation reviews the literature on the phenomenon of policy innovation. Policy innovation refers to a shift in the way policy is made or executed. The paper covers comprehensively on the definition and also the various types of policy innovations. The emphasis is on the antecedents or the determinants of innovation in policies. The author has then made an effort to discover the knowledge gap in the field of policy innovation so as to identify the future scope of research. The objective is to lend more clarity in the area of policy innovation and help in creating a framework for policy-makers as well as academics.

Keywords: literature review, policy innovation, determinants, antecedents

Procedia PDF Downloads 566

Authors: Vincenzo Capalbo, Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuele Manni

Abstract:

Global e-commerce sales have reached unprecedented levels in the past few years. As this trend is only predicted to go up as we continue into the ’20s, new challenges will be faced by companies when planning and controlling e-commerce logistics. In this paper, we survey the related literature on Optimization and Machine Learning as well as on combined methodologies. We also identify the distinctive features of next-generation planning algorithms - namely scalability, model-and-run features and learning capabilities - that will be fundamental to cope with the scale and complexity of logistics in the next decade.

Keywords: e-commerce, hardware acceleration, logistics, machine learning, mixed integer programming, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Manish Pandey, Gurinderjit Kaur, Meenu Talwar, Sachin Chauhan, Jagbir Gill

Abstract:

Health-care management systems are a unit of nice connection as a result of the supply a straightforward and fast management of all aspects relating to a patient, not essentially medical. What is more, there are unit additional and additional cases of pathologies during which diagnosing and treatment may be solely allotted by victimization medical imaging techniques. With associate ever-increasing prevalence, medical pictures area unit directly acquired in or regenerate into digital type, for his or her storage additionally as sequent retrieval and process. Data Mining is the process of extracting information from large data sets through using algorithms and Techniques drawn from the field of Statistics, Machine Learning and Data Base Management Systems. Forecasting may be a prediction of what's going to occur within the future, associated it's an unsure method. Owing to the uncertainty, the accuracy of a forecast is as vital because the outcome foretold by foretelling the freelance variables. A forecast management should be wont to establish if the accuracy of the forecast is within satisfactory limits. Fuzzy regression strategies have normally been wont to develop shopper preferences models that correlate the engineering characteristics with shopper preferences relating to a replacement product; the patron preference models offer a platform, wherever by product developers will decide the engineering characteristics so as to satisfy shopper preferences before developing the merchandise. Recent analysis shows that these fuzzy regression strategies area units normally will not to model client preferences. We tend to propose a Testing the strength of Exponential Regression Model over regression toward the mean Model.

Keywords: health-care management systems, fuzzy regression, data mining, forecasting, fuzzy membership function

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Selin Tosun

Abstract:

The improvements in technology have started to transform the way we live, work, play, and commute in our cities. The emerging smart city understanding has been paving the way for more efficient, more useful, and more profitable cities. Smart sensors, smart lighting, smart waste, water and electricity management, smart transportation and communication systems are introduced to cities at a rapid pace. In today's world, innovation is often correlated with start-up companies and technological pioneers seeking broader economic objectives such as production and competitiveness. The government's position is primarily that of an enabler, with creativity mostly coming from the private sector. The paper argues that to achieve sustainable development, the ways in which smart and sustainable city approaches are being applied to cities need to be redefined. The research aims to address common discussions in the discourse of smart and sustainable cities criticizing the priority of lifestyle sterilization over human-centered sustainable interventions and social innovation strategies. The dichotomy between the fact that smart cities are mostly motivated by the competitive global market and the fact that the delocalization is, in fact, their biggest problem in the way of becoming authentic, sustainable cities is the main challenge that we face today. In other words, the key actors in smart cities have different and somewhat conflicting interests and demands. By reviewing the roles of the public and private actors in smart city making, the paper aspires to reconceptualize the understanding of “smartness” in achieving sustainable development in which the “smartness” is understood as a multi-layered complex phenomenon that can be channeled through different dynamics. The case cities around the world are explored and compared in terms of their technological innovations, governance and policy innovations, public-private stakeholder relationships, and the understanding of the public realm. The study aims to understand the current trends and general dynamics in the field, key issues that are being addressed, the scale that is preferred to reflect upon and the projects that are designed for the particular issues.

Keywords: smart city, sustainable development, technological innovation, social innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Erdem Kirkbesoglu, A. Bugra Soylu, E. Deniz Kahraman

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of some variables on organizational mortality of the Turkish insurance industry and calculate the carrying capacities of Turkish insurance industry according to cities and regions. In the study, organizational mortality was tested with the level of reaching the population's carrying capacity. The findings of this study show that the insurance sales potentials can be calculated according to the provinces and regions of Turkey. It has also been proven that the organizations that feed on the same source will have a carrying capacity in the evolutionary process.

Keywords: insurance, carrying capacity, organizational mortality, organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Indre Brazauskaite, Vilte Auruskeviciene

Abstract:

Significance of the study is outlined through current strategic management challenges faced by SMEs. First, innovation is recognized as competitive advantage in the market, having ever changing market conditions. It is of constant interest from both practitioners and academics to capture and capitalize on business opportunities or mitigate the foreseen risks. Secondly, it is recognized that integrated system is needed for proper implementation of innovation process, especially during the period of business incubation, associated with relatively high risks of new product failure. Finally, ability to successful commercialize innovations leads to tangible business results that allow to grow organizations further. This is particularly relevant to SMEs due to limited structures, resources, or capabilities. Cooperation between scientific and business institutions could be a tool of mutual interest to observe, address, and further develop innovations during the incubation period, which is the most demanding and challenging during the innovation process. Material aims to address the following problematics: i) indicate the major barriers and challenges in innovation process that SMEs are facing, ii) outline the possibilities for these barriers and challenges to be addressed by cooperation between scientific and business institutions. Basis for this research is stage-by-stage integrated innovation management process which presents existing challenges and needed aid in operational decision making. The stage-by-stage innovation management process exploration highlights relevant research opportunities that have high practical relevance in the field. It is expected to reveal the possibility for business incubation programs that could combine interest from both – practices and academia. Methodology. Scientific meta-analysis of to-date scientific literature that explores innovation process. Research model is built on the combination of stage-gate model and lean six sigma approach. It outlines the following steps: i) pre-incubation (discovery and screening), ii) incubation (scoping, planning, development, and testing), and iii) post-incubation (launch and commercialization) periods. Empirical quantitative research is conducted to address barriers and challenges related to innovation process among SMEs that limits innovations from successful launch and commercialization and allows to identify potential areas for cooperation between scientific and business institutions. Research sample, high level decision makers representing trading SMEs, are approached with structured survey based on the research model to investigate the challenges associated with each of the innovation management step. Expected findings. First, the current business challenges in the innovation process are revealed. It will outline strengths and weaknesses of innovation management practices and systems across SMEs. Secondly, it will present material for relevant business case investigation for scholars to serve as future research directions. It will contribute to a better understanding of quality innovation management systems. Third, it will contribute to the understanding the need for business incubation systems for mutual contribution from practices and academia. It can increase relevance and adaptation of business research.

Keywords: cooperation between scientific and business institutions, innovation barriers and challenges, innovation measure, innovation process, SMEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: T. Iakovleva

Abstract:

Present paper suggests a theoretical model that describes the process of the development of responsible innovations on the firm level in health and welfare sectors. There is a need to develop new firm strategies in these sectors. This paper suggests to look on the concept of responsible innovation that was originally developed on the social level and to apply this new concept to the new area of firm strategy. The rapid global diffusion of information and communication technologies has greatly improved access to knowledge. At the same time, communication is cheap, information is a commodity, and global trade increases technological diffusion. As a result, firms and users, including those outside of industrialized nations, get early exposure to the latest technologies and information. General-purpose technologies such as mobile phones and 3D printers enable individuals to solve local needs and customize products. The combined effect of these changes is having a profound impact on the innovation landscape. Meanwhile, the healthcare sector is facing unprecedented challenges, which are magnified by budgetary constraints, an aging population and the desire to provide care for all. On the other hand, patients themselves are changing. They are savvier about their diseases, they expect their relation with the healthcare professionals to be open and interactive, but above all they want to be part of the decision process. All of this is a reflection of what is already happening in other industries where customers have access to large amount of information and became educated buyers. This article addresses the question of how ICT research and innovation may contribute to developing solutions to grand societal challenges in a responsible way. A broad definition of the concept of responsibility in the context of innovation is adopted in this paper. Responsibility is thus seen as a collective, uncertain and future-oriented activity. This opens the questions of how responsibilities are perceived and distributed and how innovation and science can be governed and stewarded towards socially desirable and acceptable ends. This article addresses a central question confronting politicians, business leaders, and regional planners.

Keywords: responsible innovation, ICT, healthcare, welfare sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Shahram Keshavarzi

Abstract:

Today, getting good service, having a good time, and leaving the company with good feelings are importanttforbothcustomers and businesses. It has been observed that when customersareexposedtopleasantsmells, their visit times increase by 26%, and theyvisittheaislesfor 3 times longer. Byusingtheeffect of scents on people, it is toensurethatcustomersshopmore, benefit from the service and be satisfied. Intoday'sresearch, visual memory can be 40% effective after a period of 4 months, whileolfactorymemory is 60% moreeffectiveevenafter 1 year. The purpose of the research is thehiddenandeffectivepower of skepticism in the behavior of consumersandtheeffectivestrategy of modern marketing. Special scentsdirectlyaffecttheincrease in sales by influencing the customer's-decision mechanism in purchasing products.

Keywords: modern marketing strategy, scent, scent marketing, consumer behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

Abstract:

New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

Abstract:

The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

Abstract:

Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: R. Premasiri, W. A. H. A. Abeygunasekara, S. M. Hewavidana, T. Jananthan, R. M. S. Madawala, K. Vaheeshan

Abstract:

Forecasting the potential for disastrous events such as landslides has become one of the major necessities in the current world. Most of all, the landslides occurred in Sri Lanka are found to be triggered mostly by intense rainfall events. The study area is the landslide near Gerandiella waterfall which is located by the 41st kilometer post on Nuwara Eliya-Gampala main road in Kotmale Division in Sri Lanka. The landslide endangers the entire Kotmale town beneath the slope. Geographic Information System (GIS) platform is very much useful when it comes to the need of emulating the real-world processes. The models are used in a wide array of applications ranging from simple evaluations to the levels of forecast future events. This project investigates the possibility of developing a dynamic model to map the spatial distribution of the slope stability. The model incorporates several theoretical models including the infinite slope model, Green Ampt infiltration model and Perched ground water flow model. A series of rainfall values can be fed to the model as the main input to simulate the dynamics of slope stability. Hydrological model developed using GIS is used to quantify the perched water table height, which is one of the most critical parameters affecting the slope stability. Infinite slope stability model is used to quantify the degree of slope stability in terms of factor of safety. DEM was built with the use of digitized contour data. Stratigraphy was modeled in Surfer using borehole data and resistivity images. Data available from rainfall gauges and piezometers were used in calibrating the model. During the calibration, the parameters were adjusted until a good fit between the simulated ground water levels and the piezometer readings was obtained. This model equipped with the predicted rainfall values can be used to forecast of the slope dynamics of the area of interest. Therefore it can be investigated the slope stability of rainfall induced landslides by adjusting temporal dimensions.

Keywords: factor of safety, geographic information system, hydrological model, slope stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Samara E., Kilintzis P., Katsoras E., Martinidis G.

Abstract:

Regions play an important role in the global economy by driving research and innovation policies through a major tool, the Regional Innovation System (RIS). RIS is a social system that encompasses the systematic interaction of the various organizations that comprise it in order to improve local knowledge and innovation. This article describes the methodological framework for developing and validating a RIS model utilizing system dynamics. This model focuses on the functional structure of the RIS, separating it in six diverse, interacting sub-systems.

Keywords: innovations, regional development, systems thinking, social system

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Dogan Can Hatunoglu, Cengiz Hakan Gurkanlı, Hatice Merve Demirci

Abstract:

Today, the maker movement is regarded as a socio-cultural movement that represents designing and building objects for innovations. In these creativity-based activities of the movement, individuals from different backgrounds such as; inventors, programmers, craftspeople, DIY’ers, tinkerers, engineers, designers, and hackers, form a community and work collaboratively for mutual, open-source innovations. Today, with the accessibility of recently emerged technologies and digital fabrication tools, the Maker Movement is continuously expanding its scope and has evolved into a new experience, and for many, it is now considered as new kind of industrial revolution. In this new experience, makers create new things within their community by using new digital tools and technologies in spots called makerspaces. In these makerspaces, activities of learning, experience sharing, and mentoring are evolved into maker events. Makers who share common interests in making benefit from makerspaces as meeting and working spots. In literature, there are many sources on Maker Movement, maker communities, and their activities, especially in the field of business administration. However, there is a gap in the literature about the maker communities in Turkey. This research aims to be an information source on the dynamics and process design of “making” activities in Turkish maker communities and also aims to provide insights to sustain and enhance local maker communities in the future. Within this aim, semi-structured interviews were conducted with founders and facilitators from selected Turkish maker communities. (1) The perception towards Maker Movement, makers, activity of making, and current situation of maker communities, (2) motivations of individuals who participate the maker communities, and (3) key drivers (collaboration and decision-making in design processes) of maker activities from the perspectives of main actors (founders, facilitators) are all examined deeply with question on personal experiences and perspectives. After a qualitative approached data analysis concerning the maker communities in Turkey, this research reveals that there are two main conclusions regarding (1) the foundation of the Turkish maker mindset and (2) emergence of self-sustaining communities.

Keywords: Maker Movement, maker community, makerspaces, open-source design, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Tomiwa, Akinyemi Clement

Abstract:

Tropical regions experience diverse and complex precipitation patterns, posing significant challenges for accurate rainfall estimation and forecasting. This study addresses the problem of effectively classifying tropical rain types and refining the Z-R (Reflectivity-Rain Rate) relationship to enhance rainfall estimation accuracy. Through a combination of remote sensing, meteorological analysis, and machine learning, the research aims to develop an advanced classification framework capable of distinguishing between different types of tropical rain based on their unique characteristics. This involves utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery, radar data, and atmospheric parameters to categorize precipitation events into distinct classes, providing a comprehensive understanding of tropical rain systems. Additionally, the study seeks to improve the Z-R relationship, a crucial aspect of rainfall estimation. One year of rainfall data was analyzed using a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) located at The Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria, measuring rainfall parameters from ground level to a height of 4.8 km with a vertical resolution of 0.16 km. Rain rates were classified into low (stratiform) and high (convective) based on various microstructural attributes such as rain rates, liquid water content, Drop Size Distribution (DSD), average fall speed of the drops, and radar reflectivity. By integrating diverse datasets and employing advanced statistical techniques, the study aims to enhance the precision of Z-R models, offering a more reliable means of estimating rainfall rates from radar reflectivity data. This refined Z-R relationship holds significant potential for improving our understanding of tropical rain systems and enhancing forecasting accuracy in regions prone to heavy precipitation.

Keywords: remote sensing, precipitation, drop size distribution, micro rain radar

Procedia PDF Downloads 16