Search results for: oil price volatility

Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

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Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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Authors: Dhruba Khatri

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Despite the short history of community based forest management, the community forestry program of Nepal has produced substantial positive effects to organize the local people at a local level institution called Community Forest User Group and manage the local forest resources in the line of poverty reduction since its inception in 1970s. Moreover, each CFUG has collected a community fund from the sale of forest products and non-forestry sources as well and the fund has played a vital role to improve the livelihood of user households living in and around the forests. The specific study sites were selected based on the criteria of i) community forests having dominancy of Sal forests, and ii) forests having 3-5 years experience of community forest management. The price rates of forest products fixed by the CFUGs and the distribution records were collected from the respective community forests. Nonetheless, the relation between pricing strategy and community fund collection revealed that the small change in price of forest products could greatly affect in community fund collection and carry out of forest management, community development, and income generation activities in the line of poverty reduction at local level.

Keywords: benefit sharing, community forest, equitable, Nepal

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Authors: Lars Rödel, Jonas Krebs, Gregor Müller

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The growing price pressure due to the increasing number of global suppliers, the growing individualization of products and ever-shorter delivery times are upcoming challenges in the industry. In this context, Mass Personalization stands for the individualized production of customer products in batch size 1 at the price of standardized products. The possibilities of digitalization and automation of technical order processing open up the opportunity for companies to significantly reduce their cost of complexity and lead times and thus enhance their competitiveness. Many companies already use a range of CAx tools and configuration solutions today. Often, the expert knowledge of employees is hidden in "knowledge silos" and is rarely networked across processes. DesignChain describes the automated digital process from the recording of individual customer requirements, through design and technical preparation, to production. Configurators offer the possibility of mapping variant-rich products within the Design Chain. This transformation of customer requirements into product features makes it possible to generate even complex CAD models, such as those for large-scale plants, on a rule-based basis. With the aid of an automated CAx chain, production-relevant documents are thus transferred digitally to production. This process, which can be fully automated, allows variants to always be generated on the basis of current version statuses.

Keywords: automation, design, CAD, CAx

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Authors: N. M. Tawil, A. R. Musa, A. I Che-Ani, H. Basri

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It is known that rising of house prices recently has affected the home ownership, especially for the future. Hence to overcome the rose of housing prices, the self-build home or DIY concept is perceived as one of the solution. This concept is proposed to be implemented for the future housing design as a strategy in helping the government to provide affordable housing, especially for middle income group to own a landed housing property. This concept is expected to offer a lower housing price for middle-income buyers and provide an opportunity for buyers to design their dream’s home with the self-build home or 'Do It Yourself' (DIY) concept. In order to implement this concept as affordable housing for MIG, the public perceptions and acceptances on the self-build home/ DIY concept itself should be identified. To achieve this aim this study was conducted by using 2 method namely literature review and questionnaire survey. The questionnaire survey was distributed to 200 respondents randomly in Lembah Klang and were analysed through the SPSS program. The results show that respondents are very interested in buying a home that they can have with the appropriate size of the home. Average of them known about Do It Yourself (DIY) concept but none of respondent have implement this concept. Most of respondents were agreed that this DIY method suitable to be implemented in the housing industry in Malaysia and they were agreed that this concept can offer a cheaper housing price because the construction costs were reduced. Moreover by providing a basic home the owner can renovate their home according to their need and financial capability.

Keywords: affordable housing, Do It Yourself, self-Built home, perception, middle income group

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Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Wassanai Wattanutchariya, Aree Wiboonpongse

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Parboiled rice is one of the most important food grains and classified in cereal and cereal product. In 2015, parboiled rice was traded more than 14.34 % of total rice trade. The major parboiled rice export countries are Thailand and India, while many countries in Africa and the Middle East such as Nigeria, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, are parboiled rice import countries. In the global rice market, parboiled rice pricing differs from white rice pricing because parboiled rice is semi-processing product, (soaking, steaming and drying) which affects to their color and texture. Therefore, parboiled rice export pricing does not depend only on the trade volume, length of grain, and percentage of broken rice or purity but also depend on their rice seed attributes such as color, whiteness, consistency of color and whiteness, and their texture. In addition, the parboiled rice price may depend on the country of origin, and other attributes, such as certification mark, label, packaging, and sales locations. The objectives of this paper are to study the attributes of parboiled rice sold in different countries and to evaluate the relationship between parboiled rice price in different countries and their attributes by using hedonic pricing model. These results are useful for product development, and marketing strategies development. The 141 samples of parboiled rice were collected from 5 major parboiled rice consumption countries, namely Nigeria, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Spain. The physicochemical properties and optical properties, namely size and shape of seed, colour (L*, a*, and b*), parboiled rice texture (hardness, adhesiveness, cohesiveness, springiness, gumminess, and chewiness), nutrition (moisture, protein, carbohydrate, fat, and ash), amylose, package, country of origin, label are considered as explanatory variables. The results from parboiled rice analysis revealed that most of samples are classified as long grain and slender. The highest average whiteness value is the parboiled rice sold in South Africa. The amylose value analysis shows that most of parboiled rice is non-glutinous rice, classified in intermediate amylose content range, and the maximum value was found in United Arab Emirates. The hedonic pricing model showed that size and shape are the key factors to determine parboiled rice price statistically significant. In parts of colour, brightness value (L*) and red-green value (a*) are statistically significant, but the yellow-blue value (b*) is insignificant. In addition, the texture attributes that significantly affect to the parboiled rice price are hardness, adhesiveness, cohesiveness, and gumminess. The findings could help both parboiled rice miller, exporter and retailers formulate better production and marketing strategies by focusing on these attributes.

Keywords: hedonic pricing model, optical properties, parboiled rice, physicochemical properties

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Authors: Vikram Singh

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This paper aims to take into account carbon tax or cap-and-trade legislation to manage Delhi carbon emissions after a post-Kyoto treaty. This report estimated the influence of the carbon taxes or rebate/compensation cost at the household level. Here, the three possible scenarios will help to comprehend the difference between a straightforward compensation/rebate, and two clearly denoting progressive formula. The straightforward compensation is basically minimizing the regressive applications that will bears on cost. On the other hand, both the progressive formula will generate extra revenue, which will help for feasibility of more efficient, vehicles, appliances and buildings in the low-income household. For the hypothetical case of carbon price $40/tonne, low-income household for both urban and rural region could experience price burden up to 5% and 9% on their income as compared to 3% and 7% for high-income household respectively. The survey report also shown that carbon emission due low-income household are primarily by the substantive requirement like housing and transportation whereas almost 40% emission due to high-income household are by luxurious and non-essential items. The equal distribution of revenue cum incentives will not completely overcome high-income household’s investment in inessential items. However, it will merely help in investing their income in energy efficient and less carbon intensive items. Therefore, the rebate distribution on per capita basis instead on per households will benefit more especially large families at low-income group.

Keywords: household emission, carbon credit, carbon intensity, green house gas emission, carbon generation based insentives

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Authors: Harry Aginta

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Using Phillips curve framework, this paper seeks for new empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation and output in a major emerging economy. By exploiting sub-national data, the contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it resolves the issue of using on-target national inflation rates that potentially causes weakening inflation-output nexus. This is very relevant for Indonesia as its central bank has been adopting inflation targeting framework based on national consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Second, the study tests the relevance of mining sector in output gap estimation. The test for mining sector is important to control for the effects of mining regulation and nominal effects of coal prices on real economic activities. Third, the paper applies panel econometric method by incorporating regional variation that help to improve model estimation. The results from this paper confirm the strong presence of Phillips curve in Indonesia. Positive output gap that reflects excess demand condition gives rise to the inflation rates. In addition, the elasticity of output gap is higher if the mining sector is excluded from output gap estimation. In addition to inflation adaptation, the dynamics of exchange rate and international commodity price are also found to affect inflation significantly. The results are robust to the alternative measurement of output gap

Keywords: Phillips curve, inflation, Indonesia, panel data

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Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Ahiduzzaman, Amit Kumar

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Alberta’s mining sector consumed 871.3 PJ in 2012, which is 67.1% of the energy consumed in the industry sector and about 40% of all the energy consumed in the province of Alberta. Natural gas, petroleum products, and electricity supplied 55.9%, 20.8%, and 7.7%, respectively, of the total energy use in this sector. Oil sands mining and upgrading to crude oil make up most of the mining energy sector activities in Alberta. Crude oil is produced from the oil sands either by in situ methods or by the mining and extraction of bitumen from oil sands ore. In this research, the factors affecting oil sands production have been assessed and a framework has been developed for market penetration of new efficient technologies in this sector. Oil sands production amount is a complex function of many different factors, broadly categorized into technical, economic, political, and global clusters. The results of developed and implemented statistical analysis in this research show that the importance of key factors affecting on oil sands production in Alberta is ranked as: Global energy consumption (94% consistency), Global crude oil price (86% consistency), and Crude oil export (80% consistency). A framework for modeling oil sands energy technologies’ market penetration (OSETMP) has been developed to cover related technical, economic and environmental factors in this sector. It has been assumed that the impact of political and social constraints is reflected in the model by changes of global oil price or crude oil price in Canada. The market share of novel in situ mining technologies with low energy and water use are assessed and calculated in the market penetration framework include: 1) Partial upgrading, 2) Liquid addition to steam to enhance recovery (LASER), 3) Solvent-assisted process (SAP), also called solvent-cyclic steam-assisted gravity drainage (SC-SAGD), 4) Cyclic solvent, 5) Heated solvent, 6) Wedge well, 7) Enhanced modified steam and Gas push (emsagp), 8) Electro-thermal dynamic stripping process (ET-DSP), 9) Harris electro-magnetic heating applications (EMHA), 10) Paraffin froth separation. The results of the study will show the penetration profile of these technologies over a long term planning horizon.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, diffusion models, market penetration, residential sector

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Authors: Helena Susana Afonso Alves, Natália Maria Rafael Canadas, Ana Maria Rodrigues

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We examined the impact of governance rules on information asymmetry, using the turnover ratio and the bid-ask spread as proxies for the information asymmetry. We used a SEM model and analyzed the indirect relations through the voluntary disclosure of information and the organizational performance. We built a voluntary disclosure index based on the information firms provided in their annual reports and divided the governance characteristics in two constructs: directors’ and supervisors’ structures and ownership structure. We concluded that the ownership structure exerts a direct influence on share price and share liquidity, Otherwise, the directors’ and supervisors’ structures exert an indirect influence, through the organizational performance and the voluntary disclosure of information. The results also show that for firms with high levels of disclosure the bid-ask spread is lower. However, in firms with a high ownership concentration investors tend to increase the bid-ask spreads and trade less, which, in this case, reduces the liquidity of the stock. The failure to find the relationship between voluntary disclosure of information and the turnover ratio shows us that the liquidity of shares is more related to the greater or lesser concentration of shareholders, with the performance of their companies than with the access to information. Moreover, it is clear that the role that information disclosure plays is mainly at the level of price formation.

Keywords: corporate governance, information asymmetry, voluntary disclosure, structural equation modelling, SEM

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Authors: Pavak Vyas, Hiral Vyas

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Spin-offs commonly known as demergers in India, represents dismantling of conglomerates which is a common phenomenon in financial markets across the world. Demergers are carried out with different motives. A demerger generally refers to a corporate restructuring where, a large company divests its stake in in its subsidiary and distributes the shares of the subsidiary - demerged entity to the existing shareholders without any consideration. Demergers in Indian companies are over a decade old phenomena, with many companies opting for the same. This study examines the demerger regulations in Indian capital markets and the announcement period price reaction of demergers during year 2010-2015. We study total 97 demerger announcements by companies listed in India and try to establish that demergers results into abnormal returns for the shareholders of the parent company. Using event study methodology we have analyzed the security price performance of the announcement day effect 10 days prior to announcement to 10 days post demerger announcement. We find significant out-performance of the security over the benchmark index post demerger announcements. The cumulative average abnormal returns range from 3.71% on the day of announcement of a private demerger to 2.08% following 10 days surrounding the announcement, and cumulative average abnormal returns range from 5.67% on the day of announcement of a public demerger to 4.15% following10 days surrounding the announcement.

Keywords: demergers, event study, spin offs, stock returns

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

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Authors: Natnael Debalklie Teshome

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The purpose of the study was to empirically investigate the impacts of export performance and its volatility on economic growth in the Ethiopian economy. To do so, time-series data of the sample period from 1974/75 – 2017/18 were collected from databases and annual reports of IMF, WB, NBE, MoFED, UNCTD, and EEA. The extended Cobb-Douglas production function of the neoclassical growth model framed under the endogenous growth theory was used to consider both the performance and instability aspects of export. First, the unit root test was conducted using ADF and PP tests, and data were found in stationery with a mix of I(0) and I(1). Then, the bound test and Wald test were employed, and results showed that there exists long-run co-integration among study variables. All the diagnostic test results also reveal that the model fulfills the criteria of the best-fitted model. Therefore, the ARDL model and VECM were applied to estimate the long-run and short-run parameters, while the Granger causality test was used to test the causality between study variables. The empirical findings of the study reveal that only export and coefficient of variation had significant positive and negative impacts on RGDP in the long run, respectively, while other variables were found to have an insignificant impact on the economic growth of Ethiopia. In the short run, except for gross capital formation and coefficients of variation, which have a highly significant positive impact, all other variables have a strongly significant negative impact on RGDP. This shows exports had a strong, significant impact in both the short-run and long-run periods. However, its positive and statistically significant impact is observed only in the long run. Similarly, there was a highly significant export fluctuation in both periods, while significant commodity concentration (CCI) was observed only in the short run. Moreover, the Granger causality test reveals that unidirectional causality running from export performance to RGDP exists in the long run and from both export and RGDP to CCI in the short run. Therefore, the export-led growth strategy should be sustained and strengthened. In addition, boosting the industrial sector is vital to bring structural transformation. Hence, the government has to give different incentive schemes and supportive measures to exporters to extract the spillover effects of exports. Greater emphasis on price-oriented diversification and specialization on major primary products that the country has a comparative advantage should also be given to reduce value-based instability in the export earnings of the country. The government should also strive to increase capital formation and human capital development via enhancing investments in technology and quality of education to accelerate the economic growth of the country.

Keywords: export, economic growth, export diversification, instability, co-integration, granger causality, Ethiopian economy

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Authors: Mohammad Mirwais Arghandiwal, Fujita Motohiro, Wisinee Wisetjindawat

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Since 2001, the new government of Afghanistan addressed the improvement of transportation in rural areas as one of the key issues for the country development. This paper thus, aims to show the impotency of transportation in the rural area of Kabul province. A field survey in Kabul Province capital of Afghanistan has been conducted during March, 2015, and 201 questionnaires were collected from four districts named Shakar Dara, Paghman, Char Asyab, and Khak Jabar to investigate the impacts of road transportation on the people’s daily life. The districts had their road projects constructed during the last 3-5 years. The interviewees are chosen randomly from a different category of districts residences. As transportation is one of the most important factors for the development of the communities, during the survey it was very easily to observe a positive effect on the life of people. The improvement on the accessibility has had a positive impact on the land and land price. In this paper, a model is created to show the relationship between different factors and the land price improvement. In the end, a recommendation is presented on the establishment of the community council for a better use and maintenance of road projects. We emphasize on a public and private partnership at a community level in the districts during the construction period too. In addition, the communities should be encouraged on their positive role in the improvement of transportation through their participation and collaboration with the local government.

Keywords: accessibility, Afghanistan, poverty, rural area, transportation development

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Authors: Omar Bouhassoun, Cristian Garrido, César Hueso

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The radiation shielding design is an optimization problem with multiple -constrained- objective functions (radiation dose, weight, price, etc.) that depend on several parameters (material, thickness, position, etc.). The classical approach for shielding design consists of a brute force trial-and-error process subject to previous designer experience. Therefore, the result is an empirical solution but not optimal, which can degrade the overall performance of the shielding. In order to automate the shielding design procedure, the IDOM Shielding Optimization Tool (ISOT) has been developed. This software combines optimization algorithms with the capabilities to read/write input files, run calculations, as well as parse output files for different radiation transport codes. In the first stage, the software was established to adjust the input files for two well-known Monte Carlo codes (MCNP and Serpent) and optimize the result (weight, volume, price, dose rate) using multi-objective genetic algorithms. Nevertheless, its modular implementation easily allows the inclusion of more radiation transport codes and optimization algorithms. The work related to the development of ISOT and its verification on a simple 3D multi-layer shielding problem using both MCNP and Serpent will be presented. ISOT looks very promising for achieving an optimal solution to complex shielding problems.

Keywords: optimization, shielding, nuclear, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Revoti Prasad Bora, Nikita Katyal

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Promotion is a key element in the retail business. Thus, analysis of promotions to quantify their effectiveness in terms of Revenue and/or Margin is an essential activity in the retail industry. However, measuring the sales/revenue uplift is based on estimations, as the actual sales/revenue without the promotion is not present. Further, the presence of Halo and Cannibalization in a multiple parallel promotions’ scenario complicates the problem. Calculating Baseline by considering inter-brand/competitor items or using Halo and Cannibalization's impact on Revenue calculations by considering Baseline as an interpretation of items’ unit sales in neighboring nonpromotional weeks individually may not capture the overall Revenue uplift in the case of multiple parallel promotions. Hence, this paper proposes a Machine Learning based method for calculating the Revenue uplift by considering the Halo and Cannibalization impact on the Baseline and the Revenue. In the first section of the proposed methodology, Baseline of an item is calculated by incorporating the impact of the promotions on its related items. In the later section, the Revenue of an item is calculated by considering both Halo and Cannibalization impacts. Hence, this methodology enables correct calculation of the overall Revenue uplift due a given promotion.

Keywords: Halo, Cannibalization, promotion, Baseline, temporary price reduction, retail, elasticity, cross price elasticity, machine learning, random forest, linear regression

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Authors: F. Z. Benabid, F. Zouai, A. Douibi, D. Benachour

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These Fluorinated polymers and polyacrylics have known a wide use in the field of historical monuments. PVDF provides a great easiness to processing, a good UV resistance and good chemical inertia. Although the quality of physical characteristics of the PMMA and its low price with a respect to PVDF, its deterioration against UV radiations limits its use as protector agent for the stones. On the other hand, PVDF/PMMA blend is a compromise of a great development in the field of architectural restoration, since it is the best method in term of quality and price to make new polymeric materials having enhanced properties. Films of different compositions based on the two polymers within an adequate solvent (DMF) were obtained to perform an exposition to artificial ageing and to the salted fog, a spectroscopic analysis (FTIR and UV) and optical analysis (refractive index). Based on its great interest in the field of building, a variety of standard tests has been elaborated for the first time at the central laboratory of ENAP (Souk-Ahras) in order to evaluate our blend performance. The obtained results have allowed observing the behavior of the different compositions of the blend under various tests. The addition of PVDF to PMMA enhances the properties of this last to know the exhibition to the natural and artificial ageing and to the saline fog. On the other hand, PMMA enhances the optical properties of the blend. Finally, 70/30 composition of the blend is in concordance with results of previous works and it is the adequate proportion for an eventual application.

Keywords: blend, PVDF, PMMA, preservation, historic monuments

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Authors: Rosa Amalia Safitri, Ine van der Fels-Klerx, Henk Hogeveen

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Halal is a dietary law observed by people following Islamic faith. It is considered as a type of credence food quality which cannot be easily assured by consumers even upon and after consumption. Therefore, Halal certification takes place as a practical tool for the consumers to make an informed choice particularly in a non-Muslim majority country, including the Netherlands. Discrete choice experiment (DCE) was employed in this study for its ability to assess the importance of attributes attached to Halal beef in the Dutch market and to investigate consumer utilities. Furthermore, willingness to pay (WTP) for the desired Halal certification was estimated. Four most relevant attributes were selected, i.e., the slaughter method, traceability information, place of purchase, and Halal certification. Price was incorporated as an attribute to allow estimation of willingness to pay for Halal certification. There were 242 Muslim respondents who regularly consumed Halal beef completed the survey, from Dutch (53%) and non-Dutch consumers living in the Netherlands (47%). The vast majority of the respondents (95%) were within the age of 18-45 years old, with the largest group being student (43%) followed by employee (30%) and housewife (12%). Majority of the respondents (76%) had disposable monthly income less than € 2,500, while the rest earned more than € 2,500. The respondents assessed themselves of having good knowledge of the studied attributes, except for traceability information with 62% of the respondents considered themselves not knowledgeable. The findings indicated that slaughter method was valued as the most important attribute, followed by Halal certificate, place of purchase, price, and traceability information. This order of importance varied across sociodemographic variables, except for the slaughter method. Both Dutch and non-Dutch subgroups valued Halal certification as the third most important attributes. However, non-Dutch respondents valued it with higher importance (0,20) than their Dutch counterparts (0,16). For non-Dutch, the price was more important than Halal certification. The ideal product preferred by the consumers indicated the product serving the highest utilities for consumers, and characterized by beef obtained without pre-slaughtering stunning, with traceability info, available at Halal store, certified by an official certifier, and sold at 2.75 € per 500 gr. In general, an official Halal certifier was mostly preferred. However, consumers were not willing to pay for premium for any type of Halal certifiers, indicated by negative WTP of -0.73 €, -0.93 €, and -1,03€ for small, official, and international certifiers, respectively. This finding indicated that consumers tend to lose their utility when confronted with price. WTP estimates differ across socio-demographic variables with male and non-Dutch respondents had the lowest WTP. The unfamiliarity to traceability information might cause respondents to perceive it as the least important attribute. In the context of Halal certified meat, adding traceability information into meat packaging can serve two functions, first consumers can justify for themselves whether the processes comply with Halal requirements, for example, the use of pre-slaughtering stunning, and secondly to assure its safety. Therefore, integrating traceability info into meat packaging can help to make informed decision for both Halal status and food safety.

Keywords: consumer utilities, discrete choice experiments, Halal certification, willingness to pay

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Authors: Federica Di Marcantonio, Antoine Leblois, Wolfgang Göbel, Hervè Kerdiles

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Weather-related shocks can threaten the ability of farmers to maintain their agricultural output and food security levels. Informal coping mechanisms (i.e. migration or community risk sharing) have always played a significant role in mitigating the negative effects of weather-related shocks in Ethiopia, but they have been found to be an incomplete strategy, particularly as a response to covariate shocks. Particularly, as an alternative to the traditional risk pooling products, an innovative form of insurance known as Index-based Insurance has received a lot of attention from researchers and international organizations, leading to an increased number of pilot initiatives in many countries. Despite the potential benefit of the product in protecting the livelihoods of farmers and pastoralists against climate shocks, to date there has been an unexpectedly low uptake. Using information from current pilot projects on index-based insurance in Ethiopia, this paper discusses the determinants of uptake that have so far undermined the scaling-up of the products, by focusing in particular on weather data availability, price affordability and willingness to pay. We found that, aside from data constraint issues, high price elasticity and low willingness to pay represent impediments to the development of the market. These results, bring us to rethink the role of index insurance as products for enhancing smallholders’ response to covariate shocks, and particularly for improving their food security.

Keywords: index-based insurance, willingness to pay, satellite information, Ethiopia

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Authors: Megha Agarwal

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The research paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as price/earnings ratio, price/book value ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow Method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as residual operating income and RNOA could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

Keywords: earnings, cash flows, valuation, Residual Earnings Model (REM)

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Authors: Mahdi Naeemi Nooghabi, Mohammad Tofiqu Arif

Abstract:

Gas Insulated Switchgears by using an insulation material named SF6 (Sulphur Hexafluoride) and its significant dielectric properties have been the only choice in urban areas and other polluted industries. However, the initial investment of GIS is more than conventional AIS substation, its total life cycle costs caused to reach huge amounts of electrical market share. SF6 environmental impacts on global warming, atmosphere depletion, and decomposing to toxic gases in high temperature situation, and highest rate in Global Warming Potential (GWP) with 23900 times of CO2e and a 3200-year period lifetime was the only undeniable concern of GIS substation. Efforts of international environmental institute and their politic supports have been able to lead SF6 emission reduction legislation. This research targeted to find an appropriate alternative for GIS substations to meet all advantages in land occupation area and to improve SF6 environmental impacts due to its leakage and emission. An innovative new conceptual design named Multi-Storey prepared a new AIS design similar in land occupation, extremely low Sf6 emission, and maximum greenhouse gas emission reduction. Surprisingly, by considering economic benefits due to carbon price saving, it can earn more than $675 million during the 30-year life cycle by replacing of just 25% of total annual worldly additional GIS switchgears.

Keywords: AIS substation, GIS substation, SF6, greenhouse gas, global warming potential, carbon price, emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Soumaya Ben Kheilifa, Dorra Mezzez Hmaied

Abstract:

We propose two approaches to examine whether European hedge fund managers can time market liquidity. Using a sample of 1616 European hedge funds, we find evidence of liquidity timing. More importantly, this ability adds economic value to investors. Thus, it represents valuable managerial skill and a major source of European hedge funds’ performance. Also we show that the majority of these funds demonstrate liquidity timing ability especially during liquidity crisis. Finally, it emerged that our main evidence of liquidity timing remains significant after controlling for market timing and volatility timing.

Keywords: european hedge funds, liquidity timing ability, market liquidity, crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Fuqiang Wang, Jun Liu, Liyan Cai

Abstract:

This paper investigates the coordination of the conflicting two-stage low carbon supply chain consisting of upstream and downstream manufacturers. The conflict means that the upstream manufacturer takes action for carbon emissions reduction under carbon trading mechanism while the downstream manufacturer’s production cost rises. It assumes for the Stackelberg game that the upstream manufacturer plays as a leader and the downstream manufacturer does as a follower. Four kinds of the situation of decentralized decision making, centralized decision-making, the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract under decentralized decision making are considered. The backward induction approach is adopted to solve the game. The results show that the more intense the conflict is, the lower the efficiency of carbon emissions reduction and the higher the retail price is. The optimal investment of the decentralized supply chain under the two contracts is unchanged and still lower than that of the centralized supply chain. Both the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract cannot coordinate the supply chain, because that the sharing cost or carbon emissions reduction sharing revenue will transfer through the wholesale price mechanism. As a result, it requires more complicated contract forms to coordinate such a supply chain.

Keywords: cap-and-trade mechanism, carbon emissions reduction, conflict, supply chain coordination

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Sanpetchuda Krutkrua, Suphawatchara Malanond

Abstract:

Throughout the history of Antitrust regimes in Thailand, Thailand has been trying to prevent collusive practices in the market through the amendments of the Trade Competition Act, and Thailand just passed the current Trade Competition Act of B.E. 2560 in 2017 of which several aspects of the law were amended in order to enhance the prevention of collusive outcome through both vertical trade restraints and horizontal trade restraints. An agreement is vertical when it involves arrangements that are in a complementary relationship. In Section 55 of the Act, any agreements to reduce the price, quantity, or quality of the goods, agreements to assign a sole retailer for the goods, and the agreement to impose conditions on the retailers are not allowed. However, Section 56 provides exemptions for the vertical relationship between the business operators, the franchise agreement, and the licensing agreement as long as such agreements do not surpass the necessity to do so, create monopolization, or affect the consumers in terms of price, quality, quantity, or options. The paper aims to explore the extent of the exemption under Section 56 and sequential regulations in terms of the vertical trade restraints regarding intellectual property licensing, and, at the same time, compare with the exemptions under the European Union competition law, and Singapore competition law. Comparative legal analysis with leading jurisdiction will illustrate the application of the newly enacted Thai Competition Act in terms of its enforcement in the global impact of IP rights, which, by nature are de jure or de facto international protection.

Keywords: antitrust, competition law, vertical restraint, intellectual property, IP licensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Dean A. McCorkle, Ed W. Hellman, Rebekka M. Dudensing, Dan D. Hanselka

Abstract:

The motivation for this study centers on the labor- and cost-intensive nature of wine and table grape production in the U.S., and the potential opportunities for precision mechanization using robotics to augment those production tasks that are labor-intensive. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the economic viability of grape production in five U.S. states under current operating conditions, identify common production challenges and tasks that could be augmented with new technology, and quantify a maximum price for new technology that growers would be able to pay. Wine and table grape production is primed for precision mechanization technology as it faces a variety of production and labor issues. Methodology: Using a grower panel process, this project includes the development of a representative wine grape vineyard in five states and a representative table grape vineyard in California. The panels provided production, budget, and financial-related information that are typical for vineyards in their area. Labor costs for various production tasks are of particular interest. Using the data from the representative budget, 10-year projected financial statements have been developed for the representative vineyard and evaluated using a stochastic simulation model approach. Labor costs for selected vineyard production tasks were evaluated for the potential of new precision mechanization technology being developed. These tasks were selected based on a variety of factors, including input from the panel members, and the extent to which the development of new technology was deemed to be feasible. The net present value (NPV) of the labor cost over seven years for each production task was derived. This allowed for the calculation of a maximum price for new technology whereby the NPV of labor costs would equal the NPV of purchasing, owning, and operating new technology. Expected Results: The results from the stochastic model will show the projected financial health of each representative vineyard over the 2015-2024 timeframe. Investigators have developed a preliminary list of production tasks that have the potential for precision mechanization. For each task, the labor requirements, labor costs, and the maximum price for new technology will be presented and discussed. Together, these results will allow technology developers to focus and prioritize their research and development efforts for wine and table grape vineyards, and suggest opportunities to strengthen vineyard profitability and long-term viability using precision mechanization.

Keywords: net present value, robotic technology, stochastic simulation, wine and table grapes

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: B. A. Adeniyi, S. A. Daud, O. Amao

Abstract:

The study investigates consumer demand for meat products in Oyo West Local Government using linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS). Questions that were addressed by the study include: first, what is the type and quantity of meat products available to the household and their demand pattern? Second is the investigation of the factors that affect meat products demand pattern and proportion of income that is spent on them. For the above purpose cross-sectional data were collected from 156 households of the study area and analyzed to reveal the functional relationship between meat products consumption and some socio-economic variables of the household. Results indicated that per capita meat consumption increased as household income and education increased but decreased with age. It was also found that male tend to consume more meat products than their female counterparts and that increase in household size will first increased per caput meat consumption but later decreased it. Price also tends to greatly influence the demand pattern of meat products. The results of elasticity computed from the results of regression analysis revealed that own price elasticity for all meat products were negative which indicated that they were normal products while cross and expenditure elasticity were positive which further confirmed that meat products were normal and substitute products. This study therefore concludes that the relevance of these variables imposed a great challenge to the policy makers and the government, in the sense that more cost effective methods of meat production technology have to be devised in other to make consumption of meat products more affordable.

Keywords: meat products, consumption, animal production, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Juhan Kim, Jinsoo Kim

Abstract:

South Korea cannot import natural gas in any form other than LNG because of the division of South and North Korea. Further, the high proportion of natural gas in the national energy mix makes this resource crucial for energy security in Korea. Expansion of Panama Canal will allow for reducing the cost of shipping between the Far East and U.S East. Panama Canal expansion can have significant impacts on South Korea. Due to this situation, we review the natural gas optimal portfolio by considering the uniqueness of the Korean Natural gas market and expansion of Panama Canal. In order to assess Korea’s natural gas optimal portfolio, we developed natural gas portfolio model. The model comprises two steps. First, to obtain the optimal long-term spot contract ratio, the study examines the price level and the correlation between spot and long-term contracts by using the Markowitz, portfolio model. The optimal long-term spot contract ratio follows the efficient frontier of the cost/risk level related to this price level and degree of correlation. Second, by applying the obtained long-term contract purchase ratio as the constraint in the linear programming portfolio model, we determined the natural gas optimal import portfolio that minimizes total intangible and tangible costs. Using this model, we derived the optimal natural gas portfolio considering the expansion of Panama Canal. Based on these results, we assess the portfolio for natural gas import to Korea from the perspective of energy security and present some relevant policy proposals.

Keywords: natural gas, Panama Canal, portfolio analysis, South Korea

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Luis N. Pereira, Marco P. Carrasco

Abstract:

Dynamic pricing is a revenue management strategy in which hotel suppliers define, over time, flexible and different prices for their services for different potential customers, considering the profile of e-consumers and the demand and market supply. This means that the fundamentals of dynamic pricing are based on economic theory (price elasticity of demand) and market segmentation. This study aims to define a dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the e-consumers profile in order to improve the number of reservations of an online distribution channel. Segmentation methods (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) were used to identify and validate an optimal number of market segments. A profile of the market segments was studied, considering the characteristics of the e-consumers and the probability of reservation a room. In addition, the price elasticity of demand was estimated for each segment using econometric models. Finally, predictive models were used to define rules for classifying new e-consumers into pre-defined segments. The empirical study illustrates how it is possible to improve the intelligence of an online distribution channel system through an optimal dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the profile of each new e-consumer. A database of 11 million e-consumers of an online distribution channel was used in this study. The results suggest that an appropriate policy of market segmentation in using of online reservation systems is benefit for the service suppliers because it brings high probability of reservation and generates more profit than fixed pricing.

Keywords: dynamic pricing, e-consumers segmentation, online reservation systems, predictive analytics

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Dhaksha Vivekanandan

Abstract:

DeFi is a network that avoids reliance on financial intermediaries through its peer-to-peer financial network. DeFi operates outside of government control; hence it is important for us to understand its impacts. This study employs a literature review to understand DeFi and its emergence, as well as its implications on transparency, social impact, and regulation. Further, 3 case studies are analysed within the context of these categories. DeFi’s provision of increased transparency poses environmental and storage costs and can lead to user privacy being endangered. DeFi allows for the provision of entrepreneurial incentives and protection against monetary censorship and capital control. Despite DeFi's transparency issues and volatility costs, it has huge potential to reduce poverty; however, regulation surrounding DeFi still requires further tightening by governments.

Keywords: DeFi, transparency, regulation, social impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

Abstract:

The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 518