Search results for: emerging risks

Authors: Kerri L. Surbaugh, Lakmini Y. Mallikarachchi, Jason R. Rohr

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Emerging diseases are key factors in the disconcerting rate of contemporary amphibian declines. The chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), ranks among the chief pathogenic challenges to vulnerable amphibian populations. Although live Bd can immunosuppress amphibian hosts, amphibian exposure to dead Bd can induce an adaptive immune response, leading to acquired resistance to the pathogen. In this experiment, dose and duration of flash-frozen Bd were manipulated over a variety of life-stages of the Cuban treefrog (Osteopilus septentrionalis) and the magnitude of acquired resistance to the pathogen was quantified via qPCR analyses of spore abundance post subsequent live Bd challenges. It was found that Cuban treefrogs can develop resistance to Bd and that life stage, dose and duration thresholds exist for acquired resistance. This experiment will aid in facilitating the development of a vaccine against Bd which could be used on location and could help curb worldwide amphibian declines associated with this pathogen.

Keywords: acquired resistance, ecoimmunology, emerging infectious disease, fungal host response, fungal pathogen, immunization

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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The use of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools in the analysis of traffic crash data can help to identify locations or hotspots with high instances or risk of traffic crashes. The identification of traffic crash hotspots can effectively improve road safety measures. Mapping of road traffic crash hotspots can help the concerned authorities to give priority and take targeted measures and improvements to the road structure at these locations to reduce traffic crashes and fatalities. In Oman, there are countless rural roads that have more risks for traveling vehicles compared to urban roads. The likelihood of traffic crashes as well as fatality rate may increase with the presence of risks that are associated with the rural type of community. In this paper, the traffic crash hotspots on rural roads in Oman are specified using spatial analysis methods in GIS and traffic crash data. These hotspots are ranked based on the frequency of traffic crash occurrence (i.e., number of traffic crashes) and the rate of fatalities. The result of this study presents a map visualization of locations on rural roads with high traffic crashes and high fatalities rates.

Keywords: road safety, rural roads, traffic crash, GIS tools

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Authors: Beverly Komen

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Online crimes have been on the rise in the recent days, especially with the hit of the covid-19 pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic has led to an unprecedented rise in screen time, this means more families are relying on technology and digital solutions to keep children learning, spending more time on the virtual platforms can leave children vulnerable to online abuse and exploitation. With ease access of affordable phones, internet, and increased online activities, all children are at risk of being abused online hence making the digital space unsafe for children. With these increased use of technology and its accessibility, children are at risk of facing challenges such as access to inappropriate content, online grooming, identity theft, cyber bullying, among other risks. The big question is; as we enjoy the benefits brought in by technology, how do we ensure that our children are save in this digital space? With the analysis of the current trends, there is a gap in knowledge on people’s understanding on child online protection and safety measures when using the digital space. A survey conducted among 50 parents in Nairobi in Kenya indicated that there is a gap in knowledge on online protection of children and over 50 % of the participants shared that for sure they have no idea on how to protect children online. This paper seeks to address the concept of child protection in the digital space and come up with viable solutions in protecting children from online vices.

Keywords: child protection, digital space, online risks, online grooming, cyber bulying, online child sexual exploitation, and abuse

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Authors: Hind Bouami, Patrick Millot

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Medication dispensing system is a life-critical system whose failure may result in preventable adverse events leading to longer patient stays in hospitals or patient death. Automation has led to great improvements in life-critical systems as it increased safety, efficiency, and comfort. However, critical risks related to medical organization complexity and automated solutions integration can threaten drug dispensing security and performance. Knowledge about the system’s complexity aspects and human machine parameters to control for automated equipment’s security and performance will help operators to secure their automation process and to optimize their system’s reliability. In this context, this study aims to document the operator’s situation awareness about automation risks and parameters involved in automation security and performance. Our risk management approach has been deployed in the North Luxembourg hospital center’s pharmacy, which is equipped with automated drug dispensing systems since 2009. With more than 4 million euros of gains generated, North Luxembourg hospital center’s success story was enabled by the management commitment, pharmacy’s involvement in the implementation and improvement of the automation project, and the close collaboration between the pharmacy and Sinteco’s firm to implement the necessary innovation and organizational actions for automated solutions integration security and performance. An analysis of the actions implemented by the hospital and the parameters involved in automated equipment’s integration security and performance has been made. The parameters to control for automated equipment’s integration security and performance are human aspects (6.25%), technical aspects (50%), and human-machine interaction (43.75%). The implementation of an anthropocentric analysis system before automation would have prevented and optimized the control of risks related to automation.

Keywords: Automated drug delivery systems, Hospitals, Human-centered automated system, Risk management

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Authors: Dimitrios Dimitriou, Maria Sartzetaki

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In the early days of the of civil aviation, airports are totally state-owned companies under the control of national authorities or regional governmental bodies. From that time the picture has totally changed and airports privatisation and airport business commercialisation are key success factors to stimulate air transport demand, generate revenues and attract investors, linked to reliable and resilience of air transport system. Nowadays, airport's corporate strategy deals with policies and actions, affecting essential the business plans, the financial targets and the economic footprint in a regional economy they serving. Therefore, exploring airport corporate strategy is essential to support the decision in business planning, management efficiency, sustainable development and investment attractiveness on one hand; and define policies towards traffic development, revenues generation, capacity expansion, cost efficiency and corporate social responsibility. This paper explores key outputs in airport corporate strategy for different ownership schemes. The airport corporations are grouped in three major schemes: (a) Public, in which the public airport operator acts as part of the government administration or as a corporised public operator; (b) Mixed scheme, in which the majority of the shares and the corporate strategy is driven by the private or the public sector; and (c) Private, in which the airport strategy is driven by the key aspects of globalisation and liberalisation of the aviation sector. By a systemic approach, the key drivers in corporate strategy for modern airport business structures are defined. Key objectives are to define the key strategic opportunities and challenges and assess the corporate goals and risks towards sustainable business development for each scheme. The analysis based on an extensive cross-sectional dataset for a sample of busy European airports providing results on corporate strategy key priorities, risks and business models. The conventional wisdom is to highlight key messages to authorities, institutes and professionals on airport corporate strategy trends and directions.

Keywords: airport corporate strategy, airport ownership, airports business models, corporate risks

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Authors: Menouni Aziza, Chbihi Kaoutar, El Jaafari Samir

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There is strong evidence connecting epidemics with the disruption of the human-animal-environment interaction. Despite the fact that several cases of emerging and endemic zoonotic diseases indifferent parts of Africa have been documented, there is limited data regarding which specific interventions are effective in preventing and managing the associated risks using a One Health approach. The aim of this study is to better understand perceptions and ongoing research related to interventions in Africa through the implementation of suitable projects and policies. A bibliometric review of the scientific literature on one health studies with a focus on African countries was conducted, followed by a qualitative survey among stakeholders involved in fields related to One Health research or management in the Africa, including veterinary experts, public health professionals, environmentalists and policy makers, to learn about determinants of their perceptions, as well as barriers to and promoters of successful interventions and governance. The project was concluded with an international workshop in March 2023, where a broad range of topics relevant to One Health were discussed. 94% of the respondents were aware of the importance of the One Health approach and strongly endorse it within their respective countries. The top reported barriers to One Health development in Africa included paucity of data, weak linkages and institutional communication between the different departments and the lack of funding. Key areas of improvement identified were the impact evaluation of current initiatives, awareness raising campaigns among citizens targeted at behavioral changes, capacity building of relevant professionals and stakeholders, as well as the implementation of adequate policies and enforcement of national and continental regulations, allowing for better coordination on the African level. All One Health sectors in Africa require strong governance and leadership, as well as inter-ministerial, inter-sectoral, and interdisciplinary cooperation.

Keywords: one health, perceptions, governance, Africa

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Authors: F. Iberraken, R. Medjoudj, D. Aissani

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The development of the smart grids concept is built around two separate definitions, namely: The European one oriented towards sustainable development and the American one oriented towards reliability and security of supply. In this paper, we have investigated reliability merits enabling decision-makers to provide a high quality of service. It is based on system behavior using interruptions and failures modeling and forecasting from one hand and on the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to mitigate catastrophic ones such as blackouts from the other hand. It was found that this concept has been adopted by developing and emerging countries in short and medium terms followed by sustainability concept at long term planning. This work has highlighted the reliability merits such as: Benefits, opportunities, costs and risks considered as consistent units of measuring power customer satisfaction. From the decision making point of view, we have used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to achieve customer satisfaction, based on the reliability merits and the contribution of such energy resources. Certainly nowadays, fossil and nuclear ones are dominating energy production but great advances are already made to jump into cleaner ones. It was demonstrated that theses resources are not only environmentally but also economically and socially sustainable. The paper is organized as follows: Section one is devoted to the introduction, where an implicit review of smart grids development is given for the two main concepts (for USA and Europeans countries). The AHP method and the BOCR developments of reliability merits against power customer satisfaction are developed in section two. The benefits where expressed by the high level of availability, maintenance actions applicability and power quality. Opportunities were highlighted by the implementation of ICT in data transfer and processing, the mastering of peak demand control, the decentralization of the production and the power system management in default conditions. Costs were evaluated using cost-benefit analysis, including the investment expenditures in network security, becoming a target to hackers and terrorists, and the profits of operating as decentralized systems, with a reduced energy not supplied, thanks to the availability of storage units issued from renewable resources and to the current power lines (CPL) enabling the power dispatcher to manage optimally the load shedding. For risks, we have razed the adhesion of citizens to contribute financially to the system and to the utility restructuring. What is the degree of their agreement compared to the guarantees proposed by the managers about the information integrity? From technical point of view, have they sufficient information and knowledge to meet a smart home and a smart system? In section three, an application of AHP method is made to achieve power customer satisfaction based on the main energy resources as alternatives, using knowledge issued from a country that has a great advance in energy mutation. Results and discussions are given in section four. It was given us to conclude that the option to a given resource depends on the attitude of the decision maker (prudent, optimistic or pessimistic), and that status quo is neither sustainable nor satisfactory.

Keywords: reliability, AHP, renewable energy resources, smart grids

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Authors: Bashaiar Alsanaa

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Never has a revolution influenced all aspects of humanity as the communication revolution during the past two decades. This revolution, with all its advances and utilities, swept the world thus becoming an integral part of our lives, hence giving way to emerging applications at the social, economic, political, and educational levels. More specifically, such applications have changed the delivery system through which learning is acquired by students. Interaction with educators, accessibility to content, and creative delivery options are but a few facets of the new learning experience now being offered through the use of technology in the educational field. With different success rates, third world countries have tried to pace themselves with use of educational technology in advanced parts of the world. One such country is the small rich-oil state of Kuwait which has tried to adopt the e-educational model, however, an evaluation of such trial is yet to be done. This study aims to fill the void of research conducted around that topic. The study explores teachers’ acceptance of incorporating communication technologies in higher education in Kuwait. Teachers’ responses to survey questions present an overview of the e-learning experience in this country, and draw a framework through which implications and suggestions for future research can be discussed to better serve the advancement of e-education in developing countries.

Keywords: communication technologies, E-learning, Kuwait, social media

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Authors: Bashaiar Alsana

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Never has a revolution influenced all aspects of humanity as the communication revolution during the past two decades. This revolution, with all its advances and utilities, swept the world thus becoming an integral part of our lives, hence giving way to emerging applications at the social, economic, political, and educational levels. More specifically, such applications have changed the delivery system through which learning is acquired by students. Interaction with educators, accessibility to content, and creative delivery options are but a few facets of the new learning experience now being offered through the use of technology in the educational field. With different success rates, third world countries have tried to pace themselves with use of educational technology in advanced parts of the world. One such country is the small rich-oil state of Kuwait which has tried to adopt the e-educational model, however, an evaluation of such trial is yet to be done. This study aims to fill the void of research conducted around that topic. The study explores teachers’ acceptance of incorporating communication technologies in higher education in Kuwait. Teachers’ responses to survey questions present an overview of the e-learning experience in this country, and draw a framework through which implications and suggestions for future research can be discussed to better serve the advancement of e-education in developing countries.

Keywords: communication technologies, e-learning, Kuwait, social media

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Authors: Zubaidan Yushan, Hudayar Cıhan

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Turkiye and China are countries that have collective cultures, but they have different cultural backgrounds. They have different cultures, different religions, and different levels of economic development. The aim of this study is to test the moderation effect of caregiver bonding on the relationship between dating violence and coping strategies among unmarried emerging adults in China and Turkiye. Participants ages were 19 and 26 years (X=23.66, SD=3.66), unmarried emerging adults Turkish 171 participants (72.5% women, 24% men, 3.5% prefer not to say), Chinese 170 participants (71.8% women, 21.8% men, 6.5% prefer not to say). All participants had been in a relationship for more than six months. Participants completed The Conflict Tactics Scales—(CTS2), The Cope Inventory, and The Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI). Examining the dating violence and coping strategies of the participant's relationship through caregiver bonding moderation analysis was performed using the Jamovi. Significance was tested using the bootstrapping method with bias-corrected confidence estimates. The outcome variable for analysis was dating violence, and the predictor variable for the analysis was coping strategies. The moderator variable evaluated for the analysis was parent attachment. Before the analysis, the mean-centered scores of each variable and moderator were calculated. Furthermore, the moderation analysis was conducted separately for each outcome. The Moderation analysis results show that the sub-dimension of over-protection moderates psychological aggression perpetration and avoidance coping in China. The sub-dimension of care moderates injury victimization and avoidance management in Turkiye; also, over-protection moderates injury victimization and social support coping. Moreover, the sub-dimension of care moderates sexual coercion perpetration and avoidance coping. In the results, caregiver bonding moderates the relationship between coping strategies and dating violence, which may be explained by the fact that our ways of coping with problems are learned, and people are influenced by their parents when they face problems. Therefore, problem-solving is permanently fixed, and each person has his or her fixed solution, which leads to a habit of using solutions to problems. However, sometimes, these solutions become the justification for the injured or abusive person. The quality of the attachment between parents can regulate this state. The results are somewhat similar to and slightly different from those in the previous literature. These mixed results indicate the need for further exploration. Many other factors, such as alcohol, drug violence, and pathological problems, maybe the reasons for these differences. In addition, diverse factors such as the study environment and the applied measurement scales may also affect the results.

Keywords: caregiver bonding, coping strategies, dating violence, emerging adulthood, cross-cultural, comparison

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Authors: S. Masud, J. Merson, D. F. Robinson

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The management of environmental resources requires engagement of a range of stakeholders including public/private agencies and different community groups to implement sustainable conservation practices. The challenge which is often ignored is the analysis of agencies involved and their power relations. One of the barriers identified is the difference in risk perceptions among the agencies involved that leads to disjointed efforts of assessing and managing risks. Wood et al 2012, explains that it is important to have an integrated approach to risk management where decision makers address stakeholder perspectives. This is critical for an effective risk management policy. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks into barriers to flood management under a changing climate and intends to identify bottlenecks that create maladaptation. Experiences are drawn from international practices in the UK and examined in the context of Australia through exploring the flood governance in a highly flood-prone region in Australia: the Hawkesbury Ne-pean catchment as a case study. In this research study several aspects of governance and management are explored: (i) the complexities created by the way different agencies are involved in assessing flood risks (ii) different perceptions on acceptable flood risk level; (iii) perceptions on community engagement in defining acceptable flood risk level; (iv) Views on a holistic flood risk management approach; and, (v) challenges of centralised information system. The study concludes that the complexity of managing a large catchment is exacerbated by the difference in the way professionals perceive the problem. This has led to: (a) different standards for acceptable risks; (b) inconsistent attempt to set-up a regional scale flood management plan beyond the jurisdictional boundaries: (c) absence of a regional scale agency with license to share and update information (d) Lack of forums for dialogue with insurance companies to ensure an integrated approach to flood management. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example and draws from literary evidence from around the world. In addition, conclusions were extrapolated from eighteen semi-structured interviews from agencies involved in flood risk management in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment of NSW, Australia. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of complexity in assessing risks against a rapidly changing climate and contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from insurance companies, real-estate agencies, state and regional risk managers and the affected communities.

Keywords: adaptive governance, flood management, flood risk communication, stakeholder risk perceptions

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes, farmers' approaches to risk management

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Authors: L. Freeman, D. Bax, V. K. Sapong

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Community-based, preventative approaches to violent extremism may be effective and yet remain an underutilised method. In a realm where security approaches dominate, with the focus on countering violence extremism and combatting radicalisation, community resilience programming remains sparse. This paper will present a survey tool that aims to measure the risk and protective factors that can lead to violent extremism in Mozambique and Tanzania. Conducted in four districts in the Cabo Delgado region of Mozambique and one district in Pwani, Tanzania, the survey uses a combination of BRAVE-14, Afrocentric and context-specific questions in order to more fully understand community resilience opportunities and challenges in preventing and countering violent extremism. Developed in Australia and Canada to measure radicalisation risks in individuals and communities, BRAVE-14 is a tool not yet applied in the African continent. Given the emerging threat of Islamic extremism in Northern Mozambique and Eastern Tanzania, which both experience a combination of socio-political exclusion, resource marginalisation and religious/ideological motivations, the development of the survey is timely and fills a much-needed information gap in these regions. Not only have these Islamist groups succeeded in tapping into the grievances of communities by radicalising and recruiting individuals, but their presence in these regions has been characterised by extreme forms of violence, leaving isolated communities vulnerable to attack. The expected result of these findings will facilitate the contextualisation and comparison of the protective and risk factors that inhibit or promote the radicalisation of the youth in these communities. In identifying sources of resilience and vulnerability, this study emphasises the implementation of context-specific intervention programming and provides a strong research tool for understanding youth and community resilience to violent extremism.

Keywords: community resilience, Mozambique, preventing violent extremism, radicalisation, Tanzania

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Authors: Werner Grommes

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The institute of occupational safety and health works in a working group for building a normative standard for illuminated warning vests and did a lot of experiments and measurements as basic work (cooperation). Intelligent car headlamps are able to suppress conventional warning vests with retro-reflective stripes as a disturbing light. Illuminated warning vests are therefore required for occupational safety. However, they must not pose any danger to the wearer or other persons. Here, the risks of the batteries (lithium types), the maximum brightness (glare) and possible interference radiation from the electronics on the implant carrier must be taken into account. The all-around visibility, as well as the required range, play an important role here. For the study, many luminance measurements of already commercially available LEDs and electroluminescent warning vests, as well as their electromagnetic interference fields and aspects of electrical safety, were measured. The results of this study showed that LED lighting is all far too bright and causes strong glare. The integrated controls with pulse modulation and switching regulators cause electromagnetic interference fields. Rechargeable lithium batteries can explode depending on the temperature range. Electroluminescence brings even more hazards. A test method was developed for the evaluation of visibility at distances of 50, 100, and 150 m, including the interview of test persons. A measuring method was developed for the detection of glare effects at close range with the assignment of the maximum permissible luminance. The electromagnetic interference fields were tested in the time and frequency ranges. A risk and hazard analysis were prepared for the use of lithium batteries. The range of values for luminance and risk analysis for lithium batteries were discussed in the standards working group. These will be integrated into the standard. This paper gives a brief overview of the topics of illuminated warning vests, which takes into account the risks and hazards for the vest wearer or others

Keywords: illuminated warning vest, optical tests and measurements, risks, hazards, optical glare effects, LED, E-light, electric luminescent

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Authors: Virpi Oksman

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Drones are new phenomenon in public spaces. Adoption of this kind of new technologies requires public acceptance. Drones and other unmanned aerial systems may have various impacts on people’s living environments, and the public is exposed to possible disadvantages of drones. Public acceptance may be expressed as positive or negative attitude by majority of the citizens towards the new technology or service or as rapid adoption of it in everyday life. In various parts of the globe, in cities and in rural areas, drones as emerging technologies are perceived quite differently. Public acceptance studies of drones have been conducted mostly in highly urbanized environments like in Singapore and in European cities. This paper presents results of a Nordic survey study (N=1000) conducted in Sweden and in Finland. The survey aims at understanding the level of acceptance of different uses of drones in public spaces and the main concerns and benefits related to emerging UAM technologies. The study shows that even though the general attitude towards drones is quite positive, privacy and safety, and noise levels are the main concerns by Nordic citizens. Also, for what purpose and by whom the drones are operated affects the acceptability significantly. The study concludes, that there is need for regulations that safeguard public interests. In addition, considering privacy in design, and quiet environmentally friendly drones support public acceptance of drones.

Keywords: public acceptance, privacy, safety, survey

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Authors: Nafe Moradkhani, Frederick Benaben, Benoit Montreuil, Ali Vatankhah Barenji, Dima Nazzal

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In the context of the global pandemic, the practical management of the 2020 presidential election in the USA was a strong concern. To anticipate and prepare for this election accurately, one of the main challenges was to confront (i) forecasts of voter turnout, (ii) capacities of the facilities and, (iii) potential configuration options of resources. The approach chosen to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on resource allocation and facility configuration of polling places in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest county. A polling place is a dedicated facility where voters cast their ballots in elections using different devices. This article presents the results of the simulations of such places facing pre-identified potential risks. These results are oriented towards the efficiency of these places according to different criteria (health, trust, comfort). Then a dynamic framework is introduced to describe risks as physical forces perturbing the efficiency of the observed system. Finally, the main benefits and contributions resulting from this simulation campaign are presented.

Keywords: performance, decision support, simulation, artificial intelligence, risk management, election, pandemics, information system

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Authors: Yasir Khan, Qiu Bin, Antonio-Mihi Ramirez

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This study determines the inflow of international students to China in recent years and the corresponding internationalization strategies in the higher education sector. China has placed attracting international students on in its plan along with the growing of global impact. Acknowledging the stable economy, growth rate, trade, lower renminbi rate, high wages, employment opportunities, high level income per capita, relative low taxes and political system consolidate to attract more international students. A large number of international students making a vast contribution to the higher education sector of China. Understanding the significance of education mission as well as of financial ‘bottom line’ the Chinese government gave great importance to invite more international students from worldwide. The large number of international students in the China has been particularly notable from Asian countries specifically neighboring countries, Pakistan, Thailand, India, Vietnam, South Korea, Magnolia, Malaysia, and Russia. This study summarizes internationalization of higher education in China and also provides directions for future research in this regard.

Keywords: international student mobility, 2020 Govt Planning, emerging market, internationalization of higher education

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Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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Authors: Pei-Chih Wu, Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Hsien-Chang Wang

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The impact of climate change to health has always been well documented. Amongst them, water-borne infectious diseases, chronic adverse effects or cancer risks due to chemical contamination in flooding or drought events are especially important in river basin. This study therefore utilizes GIS and different models to integrate demographic, land use, disaster prevention, social-economic factors, and human health assessment in the Erren River basin. Therefore, through the collecting of climatic, demographic, health surveillance, water quality and other water monitoring data, potential risks associated with the Erren River Basin are established and to understand human exposure and vulnerability in response to climate extremes. This study assesses the temporal and spatial patterns of melioidosis (2000-2015) and various cancer incidents in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities. The next step is to analyze the spatial association between diseases incidences, climatic factors, land uses, and other demographic factors by using ArcMap and GeoDa. The study results show that amongst all melioidosis cases in Taiwan, 24% cases (115) residence occurred in the Erren River basin. The relationship between the cases and in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities are associated with population density, aging indicator, and residence in Erren River basin. Risks from flooding due to heavy rainfall and fish farms in spatial lag regression are also related. Through liver cancer, the preliminary analysis in temporal and spatial pattern shows an increases pattern in annual incidence without clusters in Erren River basin. Further analysis of potential cancers connected to heavy metal contamination from water pollution in Erren River is established. The final step is to develop an assessment tool for human exposure from water contamination and vulnerability in response to climate extremes for the second year.

Keywords: climate change, health impact, health adaptation, Erren River Basin

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Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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Authors: Simisola I. Akintoye, Sunday K. Iyaniwura

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Recent global corporate failures have called for increase in the need to regulate corporate governance across the world. In Nigeria, the impact of corporate governance regulation in the banking sector has reached epidemic levels contributing to the country’s economic depression. This study critically evaluates Nigeria’s corporate governance regime and explores how weak regulation has impacted on the banking sector. By adopting a socio legal methodology, the study analyses both theoretical and empirical works from a socio-scientific point of view to examine the role of Nigeria’s legal, cultural and social arrangements in corporate governance regulation. The study reveals that Nigeria’s institutional arrangement has contributed to its weak system of corporate governance regulation with adverse effects on the banking sector. The research mainly impacts on current global corporate governance literature in sub-Saharan Africa by contributing to knowledge of the peculiarities of corporate governance regulation in different institutional jurisdictions. The particular focus on emerging economies such as Nigeria expands on the need for countries to develop a bespoke system of corporate governance regulation that takes into consideration the peculiarities of individual countries devoid of external influence.

Keywords: banks, corporate governance, emerging economies, Nigeria

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Elif Tugce Aksun Tumerkan

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Although seafood is an important part of human diet and categorized highly traded food industry internationally, it is remain overlooked generally in the global food security aspect. Food product authentication is the main interest in the aim of both avoids commercial fraud and to consider the risks that might be harmful to human health safety. In recent years, with increasing consumer demand for regarding food content and it's transparency, there are some instrumental analyses emerging for determining food fraud depend on some analytical methodologies such as proteomic and metabolomics. While, fish and seafood consumed as fresh previously, within advanced technology, processed or packaged seafood consumption have increased. After processing or packaging seafood, morphological identification is impossible when some of the external features have been removed. The main fish and seafood quality-related issues are the authentications of seafood contents such as mislabelling products which may be contaminated and replacement partly or completely, by lower quality or cheaper ones. For all mentioned reasons, truthful consistent and easily applicable analytical methods are needed for assurance the correct labelling and verifying of seafood products. DNA-barcoding methods become popular robust that used in taxonomic research for endangered or cryptic species in recent years; they are used for determining food traceability also. In this review, when comparing the other proteomic and metabolic analysis, DNA-based methods are allowing a chance to identification all type of food even as raw, spiced and processed products. This privilege caused by DNA is a comparatively stable molecule than protein and other molecules. Furthermore showing variations in sequence based on different species and founding in all organisms, make DNA-based analysis more preferable. This review was performed to clarify the main advantages of using DNA-barcoding for determining seafood fraud among other techniques.

Keywords: DNA-barcoding, genetic analysis, food fraud, mislabelling, packaged seafood

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Authors: Mohammed Ibrahim Bu Haya, Abdelmoneim Bahyeldin Mohamed Metwally

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This paper examines the impact of Green Intellectual Capital (GIC) on Green Supply Chain Performance (GSCP). Further, the study examines the moderating role of external pressures (EP) on the relationship between GIC and GSCP. Data were collected from employees working in Egyptian hotels and tourism companies (N= 366). The collected data were analyzed using smart partial least squares (Smart-PLS) software. The current research indicated that there is a positive and significant impact of all GIC components on GSCP. The results also revealed that EP were found to moderate the relationship between GIC and GSCP. The study model was able to explain 63.1% of the variance in GSCP. The findings of this study serve as a pivotal yardstick for guiding corporate policy formulation, offering valuable insights to drive continuous improvements in supply chain management and performance. Furthermore, the research holds substantial implications for managerial strategies by shedding light on the potential of GIC and EP to elevate GSCP. Positioned as one of the initial studies to delve into the moderating role of EP in the relationship between GIC and GSCP, this research offers insights within an emerging market context.

Keywords: green intellectual capital, green supply chain, supply chain performance, external pressures, emerging economy, Egypt

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Authors: Rebin Mzhda Mohammed, Hoshmand Ali Hama Agha

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Excess skin, often consequential to substantial weight loss or the aging process, introduces physical discomfort, obstructs daily activities, and undermines an individual's self-esteem. As these challenges become increasingly prevalent, the need to explore viable solutions grows in significance. Extra skin removal surgery, colloquially known as body contouring surgery, has emerged as a compelling intervention to ameliorate the physical and psychological burdens of excess skin. This study undertakes a comprehensive review to illuminate the intricacies of extra skin removal surgery, encompassing its diverse procedures, associated risks, benefits, and psychological implications on patients. The methodological approach adopted involves a systematic and exhaustive review of pertinent scholarly literature sourced from reputable databases, including PubMed, Google Scholar, and specialized cosmetic surgery journals. Articles are meticulously curated based on their relevance, credibility, and recency. Subsequently, data from these sources are synthesized and categorized, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the subject matter. Qualitative analysis serves to unravel the nuanced psychological effects, while quantitative data, where available, are harnessed to underpin the study's conclusions. In terms of major findings, the research underscores the manifold advantages of extra skin removal surgery. Patients experience a notable improvement in physical comfort, amplified mobility, enhanced self-confidence, and a newfound ability to don clothing comfortably. Nonetheless, the benefits are juxtaposed with potential risks, encompassing infection, scarring, hematoma, delayed healing, and the challenge of achieving symmetry. A salient discovery is the profound psychological impact of the surgery, as patients consistently report elevated body image satisfaction, heightened self-esteem, and a substantial enhancement in overall quality of life. In summation, this research accentuates the pivotal role of extra skin removal surgery in ameliorating the intricate interplay of physical and psychological difficulties posed by excess skin. By elucidating the diverse procedures, associated risks, and psychological outcomes, the study contributes to a comprehensive and informed comprehension of the surgery's multifaceted effects. Therefore, individuals contemplating this transformative surgical option are equipped with comprehensive insights, ultimately fostering informed decision-making, guided by the expertise of medical professionals.

Keywords: extra skin removal surgery, body contouring, abdominoplasty, brachioplasty, thigh lift, body lift, benefits, risks, psychological effects

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Authors: Ricardo Schnug

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This paper puts the transnational crime of human trafficking in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa and its quickly growing youth bulge. By mapping recent and concurrent trends and emerging issues, it explores the implications that it has not only for the region itself but also for the greater global dynamics of the issue. Through the application of Causal Layered Analysis to various alternative future scenarios as well as the identification of the core narrative surrounding the international discourse, it is possible to understand more deeply the forces that underlie future trafficking and what change becomes possible. With the provision of a reconstructed narrative that avoids the current blind spots, this research points out the need for a new and organic leadership paradigm that allows for a more holistic and future-oriented inquiry about socio-economic and political change and what it entails for a transnational crime such as human trafficking. 'Ubuntu' as a social and leadership philosophy then, provides the principles needed for creating this path towards a truly preferred future. Furthermore, this paper inspires follow-up research and the continuous monitoring and transdisciplinary research of this region’s demographic emergence as well as its possible consequences that have been explored in this inquiry.

Keywords: causal layered analysis, emerging issues, human trafficking, scenarios, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Liberata Borralho, Saúl N. de Jesus, Adelinda Candeias, Victória Fernández-Puig

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In the last decades, we have witnessed a deterioration in the health of teachers worldwide, reflecting the constant social, political and economic changes. The quality of teaching and the success of students depends on the health status of the teachers, which justifies the importance of periodically evaluating their health. With this purpose, the Teacher’s Health Questionnaire was applied to 15.394 teachers teaching in Portugal and Spain (6.208 Spanish and 9.186 Portuguese) of primary and secondary education (3.482 men, 11.911 women). This questionnaire is specific and includes both the main risks of the teaching profession and the manifestations of teacher well-being, according to the definition recommended by the World Health Organization. A descriptive analysis of the results was carried out, including a study of the dimensions and the differences according to some sociodemographic and professional variables, from an analysis of variance ANOVA, applying the Bonferroni correction. Cluster analysis (K-means) allowed us to obtain cutoff scores to assess health status. The results allow concluding that Portuguese teachers perceive a poor well-being in the performance of their professional activity and that more than half present manifestations in the various dimensions of health deterioration, highlighting the exhaustion and cognitive disorders. In turn, Spanish teachers demonstrate a high level of well-being, being the musculoskeletal dimensions and cognitive disorders the main manifestations of deterioration of health.

Keywords: job prevention, occupational health, teacher’s health, teachers work risks, teacher’s well-being

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Authors: Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt

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Following the stock selection guidelines provided by the Sharia Board (SB), we segregate the firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) into Sharia Compliant (SC) and Non-Sharia Compliant (NSC) stocks. Subsequently, we form portfolios within each group based on market capitalization and volatility. The purpose is to analyze and compare the performance of these two groups as the SC stocks have lesser diversification opportunities due to SB restrictions. Using data ranging from January 2004 until June 2016, our results indicate that in most of the cases the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) for the returns differential between SC and NCS firms are positive. In addition, the SC firms in comparison to their counterparts in PSX provides excess returns that are hedged against the market, size, and value-based systematic risks factors. Overall, these results reconcile with one prevailing notion that the SC stocks that have lower financial leverage and higher investment in real assets are lesser exposed to market-based risks. Further, the SC firms that are more capitalized and less volatile, perform better than lower capitalized and higher volatile SC and NSC firms. To sum up our results, we do not find any substantial evidence for opportunity loss due to limited diversification opportunities in case of SC firms. To optimally utilize scarce resources, investors should consider SC firms as a candidate in portfolio construction.

Keywords: diversification, performance, sharia compliant stocks, risk adjusted returns

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Authors: Amal Hussain Alkhaiwani, Ghadah Abdullah Almalki

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Recently human errors have increasingly become a very high factor in security breaches that may affect confidential data, and most of the cyber data breaches are caused by human errors. With one individual mistake, the attacker will gain access to the entire network and bypass the implemented access controls without any immediate detection. Unaware employees will be vulnerable to any social engineering cyber-attacks. Providing security awareness to People is part of the company protection process; the cyber risks cannot be reduced by just implementing technology; the human awareness of security will significantly reduce the risks, which encourage changes in staff cyber-awareness. In this paper, we will focus on Human Awareness, human needs to continue the required security education level; we will review human errors and introduce a proposed solution to avoid the breach from occurring again. Recently Saudi Arabia faced many attacks with different methods of social engineering. As Saudi Arabia has become a target to many countries and individuals, we needed to initiate a defense mechanism that begins with awareness to keep our privacy and protect the confidential data against possible intended attacks.

Keywords: cybersecurity, human aspects, human errors, human mistakes, security awareness, Saudi Arabia, security program, security education, social engineering

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Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye

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Introduction: Diarrhoea is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality among communities living in urban informal settlements of developing countries. It is assumed that mountainous environment introduces variations of the burden among residents of the same settlements. Design and Objective: A cross-sectional study was done in Kigali to explore the effect of mountainous informal settlements on diarrhoea risk variations. Data were collected among 1,152 households through household survey and transect walk to observe the status of sanitation. The outcome variable was the incidence of diarrhoea among household members of any age. The study used the most knowledgeable person in the household as the main respondent. Mostly this was the woman of the house as she was more likely to know the health status of every household member as she plays various roles: mother, wife, and head of the household among others. The analysis used cross tabulation and logistic regression analysis. Results: Results suggest that risks for diarrhoea vary depending on home location in the settlements. Diarrhoea risk increased as the distance from the road increased. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicate the adjusted odds ratio of 2.97 with 95% confidence interval being 1.35-6.55 and 3.50 adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval being 1.61-7.60 in level two and three respectively compared with level one. The status of sanitation within and around homes was also significantly associated with the increase of diarrhoea. Equally, it is indicated that stable households were less likely to have diarrhoea. The logistic regression analysis indicated the adjusted odds ratio of 0.45 with 95% confidence interval being 0.25-0.81. However, the study did not find evidence for a significant association between diarrhoea risks and household socioeconomic status in the multivariable model. It is assumed that environmental factors in mountainous settings prevailed. Households using the available public water sources were more likely to have diarrhoea in their households. Recommendation: The study recommends the provision and extension of infrastructure for improved water, drainage, sanitation and wastes management facilities. Equally, studies should be done to identify the level of contamination and potential origin of contaminants for water sources in the valleys to adequately control the risks for diarrhoea in mountainous urban settings.

Keywords: urbanisation, diarrhoea risk, mountainous environment, urban informal settlements in Rwanda

Procedia PDF Downloads 149