Search results for: Sandy River
900 Technical, Environmental and Financial Assessment for Optimal Sizing of Run-of-River Small Hydropower Project: Case Study in Colombia
Authors: David Calderon Villegas, Thomas Kaltizky
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Run-of-river (RoR) hydropower projects represent a viable, clean, and cost-effective alternative to dam-based plants and provide decentralized power production. However, RoR schemes cost-effectiveness depends on the proper selection of site and design flow, which is a challenging task because it requires multivariate analysis. In this respect, this study presents the development of an investment decision support tool for assessing the optimal size of an RoR scheme considering the technical, environmental, and cost constraints. The net present value (NPV) from a project perspective is used as an objective function for supporting the investment decision. The tool has been tested by applying it to an actual RoR project recently proposed in Colombia. The obtained results show that the optimum point in financial terms does not match the flow that maximizes energy generation from exploiting the river's available flow. For the case study, the flow that maximizes energy corresponds to a value of 5.1 m3/s. In comparison, an amount of 2.1 m3/s maximizes the investors NPV. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the NPV as a function of the debt rate changes and the electricity prices and the CapEx. Even for the worst-case scenario, the optimal size represents a positive business case with an NPV of 2.2 USD million and an IRR 1.5 times higher than the discount rate.Keywords: small hydropower, renewable energy, RoR schemes, optimal sizing, objective function
Procedia PDF Downloads 133899 Law of the River and Indigenous Water Rights: Reassessing the International Legal Frameworks for Indigenous Rights and Water Justice
Authors: Sultana Afrin Nipa
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Life on Earth cannot thrive or survive without water. Water is intimately tied with community, culture, spirituality, identity, socio-economic progress, security, self-determination, and livelihood. Thus, access to water is a United Nations recognized human right due to its significance in these realms. However, there is often conflict between those who consider water as the spiritual and cultural value and those who consider it an economic value thus being threatened by economic development, corporate exploitation, government regulation, and increased privatization, highlighting the complex relationship between water and culture. The Colorado River basin is home to over 29 federally recognized tribal nations. To these tribes, it holds cultural, economic, and spiritual significance and often extends to deep human-to-non-human connections frequently precluded by the Westphalian regulations and settler laws. Despite the recognition of access to rivers as a fundamental human right by the United Nations, tribal communities and their water rights have been historically disregarded through inter alia, colonization, and dispossession of their resources. Law of the River such as ‘Winter’s Doctrine’, ‘Bureau of Reclamation (BOR)’ and ‘Colorado River Compact’ have shaped the water governance among the shareholders. However, tribal communities have been systematically excluded from these key agreements. While the Winter’s Doctrine acknowledged that tribes have the right to withdraw water from the rivers that pass through their reservations for self-sufficiency, the establishment of the BOR led to the construction of dams without tribal consultation, denying the ‘Winters’ regulation and violating these rights. The Colorado River Compact, which granted only 20% of the water to the tribes, diminishes the significance of international legal frameworks that prioritize indigenous self-determination and free pursuit of socio-economic and cultural development. Denial of this basic water right is the denial of the ‘recognition’ of their sovereignty and self-determination that questions the effectiveness of the international law. This review assesses the international legal frameworks concerning indigenous rights and water justice and aims to pinpoint gaps hindering the effective recognition and protection of Indigenous water rights in Colorado River Basin. This study draws on a combination of historical and qualitative data sets. The historical data encompasses the case settlements provided by the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) respectively the notable cases of Native American water rights settlements on lower Colorado basin related to Arizona from 1979-2008. This material serves to substantiate the context of promises made to the Indigenous people and establishes connections between existing entities. The qualitative data consists of the observation of recorded meetings of the Central Arizona Project (CAP) to evaluate how the previously made promises are reflected now. The study finds a significant inconsistency in participation in the decision-making process and the lack of representation of Native American tribes in water resource management discussions. It highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the indigenous people to achieve their self-determination goal despite the legal arrangements.Keywords: colorado river, indigenous rights, law of the river, water governance, water justice
Procedia PDF Downloads 37898 The Effect of Grading Characteristics on the Shear Strength and Mechanical Behavior of Granular Classes of Sands
Authors: Salah Brahim Belakhdar, Tari Mohammed Amin, Rafai Abderrahmen, Amalsi Bilal
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Shear strength of sandy soils has been considered as the important parameter to study the stability of different civil engineering structures when subjected to monotonic, cyclic, and earthquake loading conditions. The proposed research investigated the effect of grading characteristics on the shear strength and mechanical behaviour of granular classes of sands mixed with salt in loose and dense states (Dr=15% and 90%). The laboratory investigation aimed at understanding the extent or degree at which shear strength of sand-silt mixture soil is affected by its gradation under static loading conditions. For the purpose of clarifying and evaluating the shear strength characteristics of sandy soils, a series of Casagrande shear box tests were carried out on different reconstituted samples of sand-silt mixtures with various gradations. The soil samples were tested under different normal stresses (100, 200, and 300 kPa). The results from this laboratory investigation were used to develop insight into the shear strength response of sand and sand-silt mixtures under monotonic loading conditions. The analysis of the obtained data revealed that the grading characteristics (D10, D50, Cu, ESR, and MGSR) have a significant influence on the shear strength response. It was found that shear strength can be correlated to the grading characteristics for the sand-silt mixture. The effective size ratio (ESR) and mean grain size ratio (MGSR) appear as pertinent parameters to predict the shear strength response of the sand-silt mixtures for soil gradation under study.Keywords: mechanical behavior, silty sand, friction angle, cohesion, fines content
Procedia PDF Downloads 374897 Methodological Approach for the Prioritization of Different Micro-Contaminants as Potential River Basin Specific Pollutants in the Upper Tisza River Watershed
Authors: Mihail Simion Beldean-Galea, Virginia Coman, Florina Copaciu, Mihaela Vlassa, Radu Mihaiescu, Adina Croitoru, Viorel Arghius, Modest Gertsiuk, Mikola Gertsiuk
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Taking into consideration the huge number of chemicals released into environment compartments a proper environmental risk assessment is difficult to predict due to the gap of legislation and improper toxicological assessment of chemicals compounds. In Romania as well as in many other countries from Europe, the chemical status of the water body is characterized taking into consideration the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the substances listed in Annex X. This Annex includes 45 substances from different classes of organic compounds and heavy metals for which AA-EQS and MAC-EQS have been established. For other compounds which are not included in Annex X, different methodologies to prioritize chemicals for risk assessment and monitoring has been proposed. These methodologies take into account Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNECs) of different classes of chemicals compounds available from existing risk assessments or from read-across models for acute toxicity to the standard test organisms such as Daphnia magna and Selenastrum capricornutum. Our work presents the monitoring results of 30 priority substances including polyaromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, halogenated compounds, plasticizers and heavy metals and other 34 substances from different classes of pesticides and pharmaceuticals which are not included on the list of priority substances, performed in the Upper Tisza River Watershed from Romania and Ukraine. The obtained monitoring data were used for the establishment of the list of more relevant pollutants in the studied area and to establish the potential river basin specific pollutants. For this purpose, two indicators such as the Frequency of exceedance and Extent of exceedance of Predicted no-Effect Concentration (PNEC) were evaluated. These two indicators are based on maximum environmental concentrations (MECs) of priority substances and for other pollutants is use statistically based averages of obtained measured concentration compared to the lowest PNEC thresholds. From the obtained results it can be concluded that polyaromatic hydrocarbon such as Fluoranthene, Benzo[a]pyrene, Benzo[b]fluorathene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, Benzo(g.h.i)perylene, Indeno(1.2.3-cd)-pyrene, heavy metals such as Cadmium, Lead and Nickel can be considered as river basin specific pollutants, their concentration exceeding the Annual Average EQS concentration. Other compounds such as estrone, estriol, 174-β estradiol, naproxen or some antibiotics (Penicillin G, Tetracycline or Ceftazidime) should be taken into account for a long monitoring, in some cases their concentration exceeding PNEC. Acknowledgements: This work is performed in the frame of NATO SfP Programme, Project no. 984440.Keywords: prioritization, river basin specific pollutants, Tisza River, water framework directive
Procedia PDF Downloads 306896 Geographic Information System and Dynamic Segmentation of Very High Resolution Images for the Semi-Automatic Extraction of Sandy Accumulation
Authors: A. Bensaid, T. Mostephaoui, R. Nedjai
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A considerable area of Algerian lands is threatened by the phenomenon of wind erosion. For a long time, wind erosion and its associated harmful effects on the natural environment have posed a serious threat, especially in the arid regions of the country. In recent years, as a result of increases in the irrational exploitation of natural resources (fodder) and extensive land clearing, wind erosion has particularly accentuated. The extent of degradation in the arid region of the Algerian Mecheria department generated a new situation characterized by the reduction of vegetation cover, the decrease of land productivity, as well as sand encroachment on urban development zones. In this study, we attempt to investigate the potential of remote sensing and geographic information systems for detecting the spatial dynamics of the ancient dune cords based on the numerical processing of LANDSAT images (5, 7, and 8) of three scenes 197/37, 198/36 and 198/37 for the year 2020. As a second step, we prospect the use of geospatial techniques to monitor the progression of sand dunes on developed (urban) lands as well as on the formation of sandy accumulations (dune, dunes fields, nebkha, barkhane, etc.). For this purpose, this study made use of the semi-automatic processing method for the dynamic segmentation of images with very high spatial resolution (SENTINEL-2 and Google Earth). This study was able to demonstrate that urban lands under current conditions are located in sand transit zones that are mobilized by the winds from the northwest and southwest directions.Keywords: land development, GIS, segmentation, remote sensing
Procedia PDF Downloads 155895 Multi-Objective Optimization of Run-of-River Small-Hydropower Plants Considering Both Investment Cost and Annual Energy Generation
Authors: Amèdédjihundé H. J. Hounnou, Frédéric Dubas, François-Xavier Fifatin, Didier Chamagne, Antoine Vianou
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This paper presents the techno-economic evaluation of run-of-river small-hydropower plants. In this regard, a multi-objective optimization procedure is proposed for the optimal sizing of the hydropower plants, and NSGAII is employed as the optimization algorithm. Annual generated energy and investment cost are considered as the objective functions, and number of generator units (n) and nominal turbine flow rate (QT) constitute the decision variables. Site of Yeripao in Benin is considered as the case study. We have categorized the river of this site using its environmental characteristics: gross head, and first quartile, median, third quartile and mean of flow. Effects of each decision variable on the objective functions are analysed. The results gave Pareto Front which represents the trade-offs between annual energy generation and the investment cost of hydropower plants, as well as the recommended optimal solutions. We noted that with the increase of the annual energy generation, the investment cost rises. Thus, maximizing energy generation is contradictory with minimizing the investment cost. Moreover, we have noted that the solutions of Pareto Front are grouped according to the number of generator units (n). The results also illustrate that the costs per kWh are grouped according to the n and rise with the increase of the nominal turbine flow rate. The lowest investment costs per kWh are obtained for n equal to one and are between 0.065 and 0.180 €/kWh. Following the values of n (equal to 1, 2, 3 or 4), the investment cost and investment cost per kWh increase almost linearly with increasing the nominal turbine flowrate while annual generated. Energy increases logarithmically with increasing of the nominal turbine flowrate. This study made for the Yeripao river can be applied to other rivers with their own characteristics.Keywords: hydropower plant, investment cost, multi-objective optimization, number of generator units
Procedia PDF Downloads 158894 Microfungi on Sandy Beaches: Potential Threats for People Enjoying Lakeside Recreation
Authors: Tomasz Balabanski, Anna Biedunkiewicz
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Research on basic bacteriological and physicochemical parameters conducted by state institutions (Provincial Sanitary and Epidemiological Station and District Sanitary and Epidemiological Station) are limited to bathing waters under constant sanitary and epidemiological supervision. Unfortunately, no routine or monitoring tests are carried out for the presence of microfungi. This also applies to beach sand used for recreational purposes. The purpose of the planned own research was to determine the diversity of the mycobiota present on supervised and unsupervised sandy beaches, on the shores of lakes, of municipal baths used for recreation. The research material consisted of microfungi isolated from April to October 2019 from sandy beaches of supervised and unsupervised lakes located within the administrative boundaries of the city of Olsztyn (North-Eastern Poland, Europe). Four lakes, out of the fifteen available (Tyrsko, Kortowskie, Skanda, and Ukiel), whose bathing waters are subjected to routine bacteriological tests, were selected for testing. To compare the diversity of the mycobiota composition on the surface and below the sand mixing layer, samples were taken from two depths (10 cm and 50 cm), using a soil auger. Micro-fungi from sand samples were obtained by surface inoculation on an RBC medium from the 1st dilution (1:10). After incubation at 25°C for 96-144 h, the average number of CFU/dm³ was counted. Morphologically differing yeast colonies were passaged into Sabouraud agar slants with gentamicin and incubated again. For detailed laboratory analyses, culture methods (macro- and micro-cultures) and identification methods recommended in diagnostic mycological laboratories were used. The conducted research allowed obtaining 140 yeast isolates. The total average population ranged from 1.37 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ before the bathing season (April 2019), 1.64 × 10⁻³ CFU/dm³ in the season (May-September 2019), and 1.60 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ after the end of the season (October 2019). More microfungi were obtained from the surface layer of sand (100 isolates) than from the deeper layer (40 isolates). Reported microfungi may circulate seasonally between individual elements of the lake ecosystem. From the sand/soil from the catchment area beaches, they can get into bathing waters, stopping periodically on the coastal phyllosphere. The sand of the beaches and the phyllosphere are a kind of filter for the water reservoir. The presence of microfungi with various pathogenicity potential in these places is of major epidemiological importance. Therefore, full monitoring of not only recreational waters but also sandy beaches should be treated as an element of constant control by appropriate supervisory institutions, allowing recreational areas for public use so that the use of these places does not involve the risk of infection. Acknowledgment: 'Development Program of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn', POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17, co-financed by the European Union under the European Social Fund from the Operational Program Knowledge Education Development. Tomasz Bałabański is a recipient of a scholarship from the Programme Interdisciplinary Doctoral Studies in Biology and Biotechnology (POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17), which is funded by the 'European Social Fund'.Keywords: beach, microfungi, sand, yeasts
Procedia PDF Downloads 104893 Estimation of Leachate Generation from Municipal Solid Waste Landfills in Selangor
Authors: Tengku Nilam Baizura, Noor Zalina Mahmood
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In Malaysia, landfilling is the most preferred method and most of it does not have the proper leachate treatment system which can cause environmental problems. Leachate is the major factor to river water pollution since most landfills are located near the river which is the main water resource for the country. The study aimed to estimate leachate production from landfills in Selangor. A simple mathematical modelling was used for the calculation of annual leachate volume. The estimate of identified landfill area (A) using Google Earth was multiplied by the annual rainfall (R). The product is expressed as volume (V). The data indicate that the leachate production is high even it is fully closed. It is important to design the efficient landfill and proper leachate treatment processes especially for the old/closed landfill. Extensive monitoring will be required to predict future impact.Keywords: landfill, leachate, municipal solid waste management, waste disposal
Procedia PDF Downloads 371892 Projections of Climate Change in the Rain Regime of the Ibicui River Basin
Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi
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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.Keywords: climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation
Procedia PDF Downloads 343891 Analyzing the Evolution of Polythiophene Nanoparticles Optically, Structurally, and Morphologically as a Sers (Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy) Sensor Pb²⁺ Detection in River Water
Authors: Temesgen Geremew
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This study investigates the evolution of polythiophene nanoparticles (PThNPs) as surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) sensors for Pb²⁺ detection in river water. We analyze the PThNPs' optical, structural, and morphological properties at different stages of their development to understand their SERS performance. Techniques like UV-Vis spectroscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) are employed for characterization. The SERS sensitivity towards Pb²⁺ is evaluated by monitoring the peak intensity of a specific Raman band upon increasing metal ion concentration. The study aims to elucidate the relationship between the PThNPs' characteristics and their SERS efficiency for Pb²⁺ detection, paving the way for optimizing their design and fabrication for improved sensing performance in real-world environmental monitoring applications.Keywords: polythiophene, Pb2+, SERS, nanoparticles
Procedia PDF Downloads 57890 Residue and Ecological Risk Assessment of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers (PBDEs) in Sediment from CauBay River, Vietnam
Authors: Toan Vu Duc, Son Ha Viet
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This research presents the first comprehensive survey of congener profiles (7 indicator congeners) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediment samples covering ten sites in CauBay River, Vietnam. Chemical analyses were carried out in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for tri- to hepta- brominated congeners. Results pointed out a non-homogenous contamination of the sediment with ∑7 PBDE values ranging from 8.93 to 25.64ng g−1, reflecting moderate to low contamination closely in conformity to other Asian aquatic environments. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was: BDE 47 > 99 > 100 > 154, similar to the distribution pattern worldwide. PBDEs had rare risks in the sediment of studied area. However, due to the propensity of PBDEs to accumulate in various compartments of wildlife and human food webs, evaluation of biological tissues should be undertaken as a high priority.Keywords: residue, risk assessment, PBDEs, sediment
Procedia PDF Downloads 298889 Hydraulic Characteristics of the Tidal River Dongcheon in Busan City
Authors: Young Man Cho, Sang Hyun Kim
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Even though various management practices such as sediment dredging were attempted to improve water quality of Dongcheon located in Busan, the environmental condition of this stream was deteriorated. Therefore, Busan metropolitan city had pumped and diverted sea water to upstream of Dongcheon for several years. This study explored hydraulic characteristics of Dongcheon to configure the best management practice for ecological restoration and water quality improvement of a man-made urban stream. Intensive field investigation indicates that average flow velocities at depths of 20% and 80% from the water surface ranged 5 to 10 cm/s and 2 to 5 cm/s, respectively. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen for all depths were less than 0.25 mg/l during low tidal period. Even though density difference can be found along stream depth, density current seems rarely generated in Dongcheon. Short period of high tidal portion and shallow depths are responsible for well-mixing nature of Doncheon.Keywords: hydraulic, tidal river, density current, sea water
Procedia PDF Downloads 225888 Assessing the Impacts of Riparian Land Use on Gully Development and Sediment Load: A Case Study of Nzhelele River Valley, Limpopo Province, South Africa
Authors: B. Mavhuru, N. S. Nethengwe
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Human activities on land degradation have triggered several environmental problems especially in rural areas that are underdeveloped. The main aim of this study is to analyze the contribution of different land uses to gully development and sediment load on the Nzhelele River Valley in the Limpopo Province. Data was collected using different methods such as observation, field data techniques and experiments. Satellite digital images, topographic maps, aerial photographs and the sediment load static model also assisted in determining how land use affects gully development and sediment load. For data analysis, the researcher used the following methods: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and statistical correlation methods. The results of the research illustrate that high land use activities create negative changes especially in areas that are highly fragile and vulnerable. Distinct impact on land use change was observed within settlement area (9.6 %) within a period of 5 years. High correlation between soil organic matter and soil moisture (R=0.96) was observed. Furthermore, a significant variation (p ≤ 0.6) between the soil organic matter and soil moisture was also observed. A very significant variation (p ≤ 0.003) was observed in bulk density and extreme significant variations (p ≤ 0.0001) were observed in organic matter and soil particle size. The sand mining and agricultural activities has contributed significantly to the amount of sediment load in the Nzhelele River. A high significant amount of total suspended sediment (55.3 %) and bed load (53.8 %) was observed within the agricultural area. The connection which associates the development of gullies to various land use activities determines the amount of sediment load. These results are consistent with other previous research and suggest that land use activities are likely to exacerbate the development of gullies and sediment load in the Nzhelele River Valley.Keywords: drainage basin, geomorphological processes, gully development, land degradation, riparian land use and sediment load
Procedia PDF Downloads 308887 Iraq Water Resources Planning: Perspectives and Prognoses
Authors: Nadhir Al-Ansari, Ammar A. Ali, Sven Knutsson
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Iraq is located in the Middle East. It covers an area of 433,970 square kilometres populated by about 32 million inhabitants. Iraq greatly relies in its water resources on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Recently, Iraq is suffering from water shortage problems. This is due to external and internal factors. The former includes global warming and water resources policies of neighbouring countries while the latter includes mismanagement of its water resources. The supply and demand are predicted to be 43 and 66.8 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) respectively in 2015, while in 2025 it will be 17.61 and 77 BCM respectively. In addition, future prediction suggests that Tigris and Euphrates Rivers will be completely dry in 2040. To overcome this problem, prudent water management policies are to be adopted. This includes Strategic Water Management Vision, development of irrigation techniques, reduction of water losses, use of non-conventional water resources and research and development planning.Keywords: Iraq, Tigris River, Euphrates River, water scarcity, water resources management
Procedia PDF Downloads 449886 Rainfall and Flood Forecast Models for Better Flood Relief Plan of the Mae Sot Municipality
Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn
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This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed whereas located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urbanized in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recently years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood event in 2013 as the worst studied case for those all communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as the aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in short period of 7 - 10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in advance period of rainfall with time step of 3 - 6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used to input to either the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) or the soil water assessment tool model (SWAT) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfied. The result of IDV’s rainfall forecast data was compared to observed data and found fair. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.Keywords: global rainfall, flood forecast, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system
Procedia PDF Downloads 349885 Estimation of Soil Erosion and Sediment Yield for ONG River Using GIS
Authors: Sanjay Kumar Behera, Kanhu Charan Patra
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A GIS-based method has been applied for the determination of soil erosion and sediment yield in a small watershed in Ong River basin, Odisha, India. The method involves spatial disintegration of the catchment into homogenous grid cells to capture the catchment heterogeneity. The gross soil erosion in each cell was calculated using Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) by carefully determining its various parameters. The concept of sediment delivery ratio is used to route surface erosion from each of the discretized cells to the catchment outlet. The process of sediment delivery from grid cells to the catchment outlet is represented by the topographical characteristics of the cells. The effect of DEM resolution on sediment yield is analyzed using two different resolutions of DEM. The spatial discretization of the catchment and derivation of the physical parameters related to erosion in the cell are performed through GIS techniques.Keywords: DEM, GIS, sediment delivery ratio, sediment yield, soil erosion
Procedia PDF Downloads 449884 Flood Risk Assessment for Agricultural Production in a Tropical River Delta Considering Climate Change
Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo
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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation
Procedia PDF Downloads 75883 Detecting the Palaeochannels Based on Optical Data and High-Resolution Radar Data for Periyarriver Basin
Authors: S. Jayalakshmi, Gayathri S., Subiksa V., Nithyasri P., Agasthiya
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Paleochannels are the buried part of an active river system which was separated from the active river channel by the process of cutoff or abandonment during the dynamic evolution of the active river. Over time, they are filled by young unconsolidated or semi-consolidated sediments. Additionally, it is impacted by geo morphological influences, lineament alterations, and other factors. The primary goal of this study is to identify the paleochannels in Periyar river basin for the year 2023. Those channels has a high probability in the presence of natural resources, including gold, platinum,tin,an duranium. Numerous techniques are used to map the paleochannel. Using the optical data, Satellite images were collected from various sources, which comprises multispectral satellite images from which indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI),Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Soil Adjusted Vegetative Index (SAVI) and thematic layers such as Lithology, Stream Network, Lineament were prepared. Weights are assigned to each layer based on its importance, and overlay analysis has done, which concluded that the northwest region of the area has shown some paleochannel patterns. The results were cross-verified using the results obtained using microwave data. Using Sentinel data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Image was extracted from European Space Agency (ESA) portal, pre-processed it using SNAP 6.0. In addition to that, Polarimetric decomposition technique has incorporated to detect the paleochannels based on its scattering property. Further, Principal component analysis has done for enhanced output imagery. Results obtained from optical and microwave radar data were compared and the location of paleochannels were detected. It resulted six paleochannels in the study area out of which three paleochannels were validated with the existing data published by Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Kerala. The other three paleochannels were newly detected with the help of SAR image.Keywords: paleochannels, optical data, SAR image, SNAP
Procedia PDF Downloads 93882 Sedimentological and Geochemical Characteristics of Aeolian Sediments and Their Implication for Sand Origin in the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Authors: Na Zhou, Chun-Lai Zhang, Qing Li, Bingqi Zhu, Xun-Ming Wang
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The understanding of the dynamics of aeolian sand in the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley (YLZBV), southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, including its origins, transportation,and deposition, remains preliminary. In this study, we investigated the extensive origin of aeolian sediments in the YLZBV by analyzing the distribution and composition of sediment’s grain size and geochemical composition in dune sediments collected from the wide river terraces. The major purpose is to characterize the sedimentological and geochemical compositions of these aeolian sediments, trace back to their sources, and understand their influencing factors. As a result, the grain size and geochemistry variations, which showed a significant correlation between grain sizes distribution and element abundances, give a strong evidence that the important part of the aeolian sediments in the downstream areas was firstly derived from the upper reaches by intense fluvial processes. However, the sediments experienced significant mixing process with local inputs and reconstructed by regional wind transportation. The diverse compositions and tight associations in the major and trace element geochemistry between the up- and down-stream aeolian sediments and the local detrital rocks, which were collected from the surrounding mountains, suggest that the upstream aeolian sediments had originated from the various close-range rock types, and experienced intensive mixing processes via aeolian- fluvial dynamics. Sand mass transported by water and wind was roughly estimated to qualify the interplay between the aeolian and fluvial processes controlling the sediment transport, yield, and ultimately shaping the aeolian landforms in the mainstream of the YLZBV.Keywords: grain size distribution, geochemistry, wind and water load, sand source, Yarlung Zangbo River Valley
Procedia PDF Downloads 97881 Teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Seasonal Flow of the Surma River and Possibilities of Long Range Flood Forecasting
Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan
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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index
Procedia PDF Downloads 156880 Environmental Liability of Architects: Architects Destroying the City in Designed and Creative Way, Dhaka City
Authors: Md. Ratin
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This paper aims to show how Dhaka city is getting destroyed and the creator and guide of the city – the architects destroying the city in more designed and creative way. The liability of architects should be first and foremost to make the would, country, city a better living environment. As without it where the architects will do their design? To make a better living environment architects should conserve the tress, river and other related ingredient related to the environment. This paper attempts to show how cutting down trees and filling rivers causing more problem than having a great architecture in those places. For increasing people in a city like Dhaka, we need more shelter. But for providing those architects building more living spaces. But as a liability of an architect, one should give something back to the environment too. With time the city’s greenery and water body are getting vanished like magic. And for this, the architects should be blamed for giving us a disastrous future. The analysis is based on literature survey and survey by questionnaire, interviews of users.Keywords: architect, environment, liability, river
Procedia PDF Downloads 347879 GIS Application in Surface Runoff Estimation for Upper Klang River Basin, Malaysia
Authors: Suzana Ramli, Wardah Tahir
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Estimation of surface runoff depth is a vital part in any rainfall-runoff modeling. It leads to stream flow calculation and later predicts flood occurrences. GIS (Geographic Information System) is an advanced and opposite tool used in simulating hydrological model due to its realistic application on topography. The paper discusses on calculation of surface runoff depth for two selected events by using GIS with Curve Number method for Upper Klang River basin. GIS enables maps intersection between soil type and land use that later produces curve number map. The results show good correlation between simulated and observed values with more than 0.7 of R2. Acceptable performance of statistical measurements namely mean error, absolute mean error, RMSE, and bias are also deduced in the paper.Keywords: surface runoff, geographic information system, curve number method, environment
Procedia PDF Downloads 282878 Habitate Potentials of Human Societies in the Alluvial Cone of the Sistan Plain in the Bronze Age
Authors: Reza Mehrafarin, Nafiseh Mirshekari, Mahila Mehrafarin
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Sistan is one of the ancient regions of Iran, which is located in the east of this country. 1660 ancient sites were identified in the archeological field surveys that we did in this area. Of these, about 900 sites belong to the Bronze Age, which are located in an area of about 3000 square kilometers. The Bronze Age in Iran began at the end of the fourth millennium BC and ended at the beginning of the second millennium BC. During this period, many cities and villages were established in Sistan, that the burnt city (Shahr-e Sokhta) was its most important center, with an area of about 150 hectares and a population of 5,000. In this article, we have tried to identify and introduce the most important features of the Bronze Age of Sistan, especially the burnt city. Another goal of the article is to identify the factors that led to the emergence of the Bronze Age, especially urbanization in Sistan at the end of the fourth millennium BCand then we want to know what factors caused the destruction of Bronze Age civilization and urbanization in Sistan. Studying and evaluating these factors are the most important goals of this article. The research method of this article is field research. As we surveyed all of Sistan with a large number of archaeologists for two years in order to identify its ancient sites and understanding its geographical space. The result of this survey led to the identification of a large number of ancient sites which were formed in three major terraces in Sistan. The most important factor in the emergence of these civilizations, especially the Bronze Age in Sistan, was the Hirmand River. On the other hand, the most important factor in the destruction of the Bronze Age and its cities in Sistan was the Hirmand River.As it was destroyed by the movement of the Hirmand River bed or the long droughts of the Bronze Age of Sistan.Keywords: archaeological survey, bronze age, sistan, urbanization
Procedia PDF Downloads 111877 Assessment of Environmental Mercury Contamination from an Old Mercury Processing Plant 'Thor Chemicals' in Cato Ridge, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Authors: Yohana Fessehazion
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Mercury is a prominent example of a heavy metal contaminant in the environment, and it has been extensively investigated for its potential health risk in humans and other organisms. In South Africa, massive mercury contamination happened in1980s when the England-based mercury reclamation processing plant relocated to Cato Ridge, KwaZulu-Natal Province, and discharged mercury waste into the Mngceweni River. This mercury waste discharge resulted in high mercury concentration that exceeded the acceptable levels in Mngceweni River, Umgeni River, and human hair of the nearby villagers. This environmental issue raised the alarm, and over the years, several environmental assessments were reported the dire environmental crises resulting from the Thor Chemicals (now known as Metallica Chemicals) and urged the immediate removal of the around 3,000 tons of mercury waste stored in the factory storage facility over two decades. Recently theft of some containers with the toxic substance from the Thor Chemicals warehouse and the subsequent fire that ravaged the facility furtherly put the factory on the spot escalating the urgency of left behind deadly mercury waste removal. This project aims to investigate the mercury contamination leaking from an old Thor Chemicals mercury processing plant. The focus will be on sediments, water, terrestrial plants, and aquatic weeds such as the prominent water hyacinth weeds in the nearby water systems of Mngceweni River, Umgeni River, and Inanda Dam as a bio-indicator and phytoremediator for mercury pollution. Samples will be collected in spring around October when the condition is favourable for microbial activity to methylate mercury incorporated in sediments and blooming season for some aquatic weeds, particularly water hyacinth. Samples of soil, sediment, water, terrestrial plant, and aquatic weed will be collected per sample site from the point of source (Thor Chemicals), Mngceweni River, Umgeni River, and the Inanda Dam. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests will be conducted to determine any significant differences in the Hg concentration among all sampling sites, followed by Least Significant Difference post hoc test to determine if mercury contamination varies with the gradient distance from the source point of pollution. The flow injection atomic spectrometry (FIAS) analysis will also be used to compare the mercury sequestration between the different plant tissues (roots and stems). The principal component analysis is also envisaged for use to determine the relationship between the source of mercury pollution and any of the sampling points (Umgeni and Mngceweni Rivers and the Inanda Dam). All the Hg values will be expressed in µg/L or µg/g in order to compare the result with the previous studies and regulatory standards. Sediments are expected to have relatively higher levels of Hg compared to the soils, and aquatic macrophytes, water hyacinth weeds are expected to accumulate a higher concentration of mercury than terrestrial plants and crops.Keywords: mercury, phytoremediation, Thor chemicals, water hyacinth
Procedia PDF Downloads 223876 Climate Change in Awash River Basin of Ethiopia: A Projection Study Using Global and Regional Climate Model Simulations
Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech
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The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation
Procedia PDF Downloads 174875 Antioxidant Capacity of Maize Corn under Drought Stress from the Different Zones of Growing
Authors: Astghik R. Sukiasyan
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The semidental sweet maize of Armenian population under drought stress and pollution by some heavy metals (HMs) in sites along the river Debet was studied. Accordingly, the objective of this work was to investigate the antioxidant status of maize plant in order to identify simple and reliable criteria for assessing the degree of adaptation of plants to abiotic stress of drought and HMs. It was found that in the case of removal from the mainstream of the river, the antioxidant status of the plant varies. As parameters, the antioxidant status of the plant has been determined by the activity of malondialdehyde (MDA) and Ferric Reducing Ability of Plasma (FRAP), taking into account the characteristics of natural drought of this region. The possibility of using some indicators which characterized the antioxidant status of the plant was concluded. The criteria for assessing the extent of environmental pollution could be HMs. This fact can be used for the early diagnosis of diseases in the population who lives in these areas and uses corn as the main food.Keywords: antioxidant status, maize corn, drought stress, heavy metal
Procedia PDF Downloads 270874 An Amphibious House for Flood Prone Areas in Godavari River Basin
Authors: Gangadhara Rao K.
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In Andhra Pradesh traditionally, the flood problem had been confined to the flooding of smaller rivers. But the drainage problem in the coastal delta zones has worsened, multiplying the destructive potential of cyclones and increasing flood hazards. As a result of floods, the people living around these areas are forced to move out of their traditions in search of higher altitude places. This paper will be discussing about suitability of techniques used in Bangladesh in context of Godavari river basin in Andhra Pradesh. The study considers social, physical and environmental conditions of the region. The methods for achieving this objective includes the study of both cases from Bangladesh and Andhra Pradesh. Comparison with the existing techniques and suit to our requirements and context. If successful, we can adopt those techniques and this might help the people living in riverfront areas to stay safe during the floods without losing their traditional lands.Keywords: amphibious, bouyancy, floating, architecture, flood resistent
Procedia PDF Downloads 173873 Human Behavioral Assessment to Derive Land-Use for Sustenance of River in India
Authors: Juhi Sah
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Habitat is characterized by the inter-dependency of environmental elements. Anthropocentric development approach is increasing our vulnerability towards natural hazards. Hence, manmade interventions should have a higher level of sensitivity towards the natural settings. Sensitivity towards the environment can be assessed by the behavior of the stakeholders involved. This led to the establishment of a hypothesis: there exists a legitimate relationship between the behavioral sciences, land use evolution and environment conservation, in the planning process. An attempt has been made to establish this relationship by reviewing the existing set of knowledge and case examples pertaining to the three disciplines under inquiry. Understanding the scarce & deteriorating nature of fresh-water reserves of earth and experimenting the above concept, a case study of a growing urban center's river flood plain is selected, in a developing economy, India. Cases of urban flooding in Chennai, Delhi and other mega cities of India, imposes a high risk on the unauthorized settlement, on the floodplains of the rivers. The issue addressed here is the encroachment of floodplains, through psychological enlightenment and modification through knowledge building. The reaction of an individual or society can be compared to a cognitive process. This study documents all the stakeholders' behavior and perception for their immediate natural environment (water body), and produce various land uses suitable along a river in an urban settlement as per different stakeholder's perceptions. To assess and induce morally responsible behavior in a community (small scale or large scale), tools of psychological inquiry is used for qualitative analysis. The analysis will deal with varied data sets from two sectors namely: River and its geology, Land use planning and regulation. Identification of a distinctive pattern in the built up growth, river ecology degradation, and human behavior, by handling large quantum of data from the diverse sector and comments on the availability of relevant data and its implications, has been done. Along the whole river stretch, condition and usage of its bank vary, hence stakeholder specific survey questionnaires have been prepared to accurately map the responses and habits of the rational inhabitants. A conceptual framework has been designed to move forward with the empirical analysis. The classical principle of virtues says "virtue of a human depends on its character" but another concept defines that the behavior or response is a derivative of situations and to bring about a behavioral change one needs to introduce a disruption in the situation/environment. Owing to the present trends, blindly following the results of data analytics and using it to construct policy, is not proving to be in favor of planned development and natural resource conservation. Thus behavioral assessment of the rational inhabitants of the planet is also required, as their activities and interests have a large impact on the earth's pre-set systems and its sustenance.Keywords: behavioral assessment, flood plain encroachment, land use planning, river sustenance
Procedia PDF Downloads 117872 Experimental Study of the Dynamics of Sediments in Natural Channels in a Non-Stationary Flow Regime
Authors: Fourar Ali, Fourar Fatima Zohra
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Knowledge of sediment characteristics is fundamental to understanding their sedimentary functioning: sedimentation, settlement, and erosion processes of cohesive sediments are controlled by complex interactions between physical, chemical, and biological factors. Sediment transport is of primary importance in river hydraulics and river engineering. Indeed, the displacement of sediments can lead to lasting modifications of the bed in terms of its elevation, slope and roughness. The protection of a bank, for example, is likely to initiate a local incision of the river bed, which, in turn, can lead to the subsidence of the bank. The flows in the natural environment occur in general with heterogeneous boundary conditions because of the distribution of the roughnesses of the fixed or mobile bottoms and of the important deformations of the free surface, especially for the flows with a weak draft considering the irregularity of the bottom. Bedforms significantly influence flow resistance. The arrangement of particles lining the bottom of the stream bed or experimental channel generates waveforms of different sizes that lead to changes in roughness and consequently spatial variability in the turbulent characteristics of the flow. The study which is focused on the laws of friction in alluvial beds, aims to analyze the characteristics of flows and materials constituting the natural channels. Experimental results were obtained by simulating these flows on a rough bottom in an experimental channel at the Hydraulics Laboratory of the University of Batna 2. The system of equations governing the problem is solved using the program named: CLIPPER.5 and ACP.Keywords: free surface flow, heterogeneous sand, moving bottom bed, friction coefficient, bottom roughness
Procedia PDF Downloads 92871 Belarus Rivers Runoff: Current State, Prospects
Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka
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The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff
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