Search results for: Markov Decision Process

Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

Abstract:

In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.

Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment

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Authors: Hamidrza Joodaki

Abstract:

The most complex issue in urban land use planning is site selection that needs to assess the verity of elements and factors. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods are the best approach to deal with complex problems. In this paper, combination of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model and FUZZY logic was used as MCDM methods to select the best site for gas station in the 4th gas zone of Tehran. The first and the most important step in FUZZY-AHP model is selection of criteria and sub-criteria. Population, accessibility, proximity and natural disasters were considered as the main criteria in this study. After choosing the criteria, they were weighted based on AHP by EXPERT CHOICE software, and FUZZY logic was used to enhance accuracy and to approach the reality. After these steps, criteria layers were produced and weighted based on FUZZY-AHP model in GIS. Finally, through ARC GIS software, the layers were integrated and the 4th gas zone in TEHRAN was selected as the best site to locate gas station.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), FUZZY logic, geographic information system (GIS)

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Authors: Chang Liu, Rui Xing, Liyan Tang, Guohong Wang

Abstract:

Entrepreneurial actions are based on entrepreneurial decisions. The quality of decisions influences entrepreneurial activities and subsequent new venture performance. Uncertainty of surroundings put heightened demands on the team as a whole, and each team member. Diverse team composition provides rich information, which a team can draw when making complex decisions. However, team heterogeneity may cause emotional conflicts, which is adverse to team outcomes. Thus, the effects of team heterogeneity on team outcomes are complex. Although team heterogeneity is an essential factor influencing entrepreneurial decision-making, there is a lack of empirical analysis on under what conditions team heterogeneity plays a positive role in promoting decision-making quality. Entrepreneurial teams always struggle with complex tasks. How a team shapes its teamwork is key in resolving constant issues. As a collective regulatory process, team reflexivity is characterized by continuous joint evaluation and discussion of team goals, strategies, and processes, and adapt them to current or anticipated circumstances. It enables diversified information to be shared and overtly discussed. Instead of hostile interpretation of opposite opinions team members take them as useful insights from different perspectives. Team reflexivity leads to better integration of expertise to avoid the interference of negative emotions and conflict. Therefore, we propose that team reflexivity is a conditional factor that influences the impact of team heterogeneity on high-quality entrepreneurial decisions. In this study, we identify team heterogeneity as a crucial determinant of entrepreneurial decision quality. Integrating the literature on decision-making and team heterogeneity, we investigate the relationship between team heterogeneity and entrepreneurial decision-making quality, treating team reflexivity as a moderator. We tested our hypotheses using the hierarchical regression method and the data gathered from 63 teams and 205 individual members from 45 new firms in China's first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. This research found that both teams' education heterogeneity and teams' functional background heterogeneity were significantly positively related to entrepreneurial decision-making quality, and the positive relation was stronger in teams with a high level of team reflexivity. While teams' specialization of education heterogeneity was negatively related to decision-making quality, and the negative relationship was weaker in teams with a high level of team reflexivity. We offer two contributions to decision-making and entrepreneurial team literatures. Firstly, our study enriches the understanding of the role of entrepreneurial team heterogeneity in entrepreneurial decision-making quality. Different from previous entrepreneurial decision-making literatures, which focus more on decision-making modes of entrepreneurs and the top management team, this study is a significant attempt to highlight that entrepreneurial team heterogeneity makes a unique contribution to generating high-quality entrepreneurial decisions. Secondly, this study introduced team reflexivity as the moderating variable, to explore the boundary conditions under which the entrepreneurial team heterogeneity play their roles.

Keywords: decision-making quality, entrepreneurial teams, education heterogeneity, functional background heterogeneity, specialization of education heterogeneity

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Authors: Mohanad Alhabo, Li Zhang, Naveed Nawaz

Abstract:

Small cell deployment in 5G networks is a promising technology to enhance capacity and coverage. However, unplanned deployment may cause high interference levels and high number of unnecessary handovers, which in turn will result in an increase in the signalling overhead. To guarantee service continuity, minimize unnecessary handovers, and reduce signalling overhead in heterogeneous networks, it is essential to properly model the handover decision problem. In this paper, we model the handover decision according to Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) method, specifically Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In this paper, we propose a hybrid TOPSIS method to control the handover in heterogeneous network. The proposed method adopts a hybrid weighting, which is a combination of entropy and standard deviation. A hybrid weighting control parameter is introduced to balance the impact of the standard deviation and entropy weighting on the network selection process and the overall performance. Our proposed method shows better performance, in terms of the number of frequent handovers and the mean user throughput, compared to the existing methods.

Keywords: handover, HetNets, interference, MADM, small cells, TOPSIS, weight

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Authors: Fawaz S. Al-Anzi, Dia AbuZeina

Abstract:

Speech recognition is of an important contribution in promoting new technologies in human computer interaction. Today, there is a growing need to employ speech technology in daily life and business activities. However, speech recognition is a challenging task that requires different stages before obtaining the desired output. Among automatic speech recognition (ASR) components is the feature extraction process, which parameterizes the speech signal to produce the corresponding feature vectors. Feature extraction process aims at approximating the linguistic content that is conveyed by the input speech signal. In speech processing field, there are several methods to extract speech features, however, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) is the popular technique. It has been long observed that the MFCC is dominantly used in the well-known recognizers such as the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) Sphinx and the Markov Model Toolkit (HTK). Hence, this paper focuses on the MFCC method as the standard choice to identify the different speech segments in order to obtain the language phonemes for further training and decoding steps. Due to MFCC good performance, the previous studies show that the MFCC dominates the Arabic ASR research. In this paper, we demonstrate MFCC as well as the intermediate steps that are performed to get these coefficients using the HTK toolkit.

Keywords: speech recognition, acoustic features, mel frequency, cepstral coefficients

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Authors: Larry O. Awo, George N. Duru

Abstract:

There is growing public and mental health concerns over the availability of gambling platforms and shops in Nigeria and the high level of youth involvement in gambling. Early theorizing maintained that gambling involvement driven by the quest for resource gains. However, evidences show that the economic model of gambling tend to explain the involvement of the gambling business owners (sport lottery operators: SLOs) as most gamblers lose more than they win. This loss, according to the law of effect, ought to discourage decisions to gamble. However, the quest to recover loses has often initiated and prolonged gambling sessions. Therefore, the need to investigate mental contemplations (such as counterfactual reasoning (upward versus downward) of what “would, should, or could” have been, and feeling of the illusion of control; IOC) over gambling outcome as risk or protective factors in gambling decisions became pertinent. The present study sought to understand the differential contributions and conditional effects of upward versus downward counterfactual reasoning as pathways through which the association between IOC and gambling decision of Nigerian youths (N = 120, mean age = 18.05, SD = 3.81) could be explained. The study adopted a randomized group design, and data were obtained by means of stimulus material (the Gambling Episode; GE) and self-report measures of IOC and Gambling Decision. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) result showed that participants in the upward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 22.08) differed from their colleagues in the downward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 17.33) on the decision to gamble, and this difference was significant [F(1,112) = 23, P < .01]. HAYES PROCESS macro moderation analysis results showed that 1) IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were positively associated with the decision to gamble (B = 14.21, t = 6.10, p < .01 and B = 7.22, t = 2.07, p < .01), 3) upward counterfactual reasoning did not moderate the association between IOC and gambling decision (p > .05), and 4) downward counterfactual reasoning negatively moderated the association between IOC and gambling decision (B = 07, t = 2.18, p < .05) such that the association was strong at a low level of downward counterfactual, but wane at high levels of downward counterfactual reasoning. The implication of these findings are that IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were risk factors and promote gambling behavior, while downward counterfactual reasoning protects individuals from gambling activities. Thus, it is concluded that downward counterfactual reasoning strategies should be included in gambling therapy and treatment packages as it could diminish feelings of both IOC and negative feelings of missed positive outcomes and the urge to gamble.

Keywords: counterfactual reasoning, gambling cognition, gambling decision, nigeria, youths

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Authors: Indre Brazauskaite, Vilte Auruskeviciene

Abstract:

The paper explores the Stage-Gate framework application for innovation maturity among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Innovation management becomes an essential business survival process for all sizes of organizations that can be evaluated and audited systemically. This research systemically defines and assesses the innovation process from the perspective of the company’s top management. Empirical research explores attitudes and existing practices of innovation management in SMEs in Baltic countries. It structurally investigates the current innovation management practices, level of standardization, and potential challenges in the area. Findings allow to structure of existing practices based on an institutionalized model and contribute to a more advanced understanding of the innovation process among SMEs. Practically, findings contribute to advanced decision-making and business planning in the process.

Keywords: innovation measure, innovation process, SMEs, stage-gate framework

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Authors: Navdeep Kaur

Abstract:

The primary focus of this study is to answer “What is the role of corporate governance in corporate failures? Does poor corporate governance lead to corporate failures? If so, how?”. In doing so, the study examines the literature from multiple fields, including corporate governance, corporate failures and organizational decision making, and presents a research gap to analyze and explore the relationship between corporate governance practices and corporate failures through a behavioral lens. In approaching this, a qualitative research methodology is adopted to analyze the failure of Enron Corporation (United States). The research considered the case study organizations as the primary unit of analysis and the decision-makers as the secondary unit of analysis. Based on this research approach, the study reports the analytical results drawn from extensive and triangulated secondary data. The study then interprets the results in the context of the theoretical synthesis. The study contributes towards filling a gap in the research and presents a behaviourally plausible decision centered model of the role of corporate governance in corporate failures. The model highlights the critical role of the behavioral aspects of corporate governance decision making in corporate failures and focuses attention on the under-explored aspects of corporate governance decision making. The study also suggests a further understanding of ‘A Behavioral Theory of the Firm’ in relation to corporate failures.

Keywords: behavior, corporate failure, corporate governance, decision making, values

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Authors: Djeffal Asma, Zemmouri Noureddine

Abstract:

In order for building designer to be able to balance environmental concerns with other performance requirements, they need clear and concise information. For certain decisions during the design process, qualitative guidance, such as design checklists or guidelines information may not be sufficient for evaluating the environmental benefits between different building materials, products and designs. In this case, quantitative information, such as that generated through a life cycle assessment, provides the most value. LCA provides a systematic approach to evaluating the environmental impacts of a product or system over its entire life. In the case of buildings life cycle includes the extraction of raw materials, manufacturing, transporting and installing building components or products, operating and maintaining the building. By integrating LCA into building design process, designers can evaluate the life cycle impacts of building design, materials, components and systems and choose the combinations that reduce the building life cycle environmental impact. This article attempts to give an overview of the integration of LCA methodology in the context of building design, and focuses on the use of this methodology for environmental considerations concerning process design and optimization. A multiple case study was conducted in order to assess the benefits of the LCA as a decision making aid tool during the first stages of the building design under specific climate conditions of the North East region of Algeria. It is clear that the LCA methodology can help to assess and reduce the impact of a building design and components on the environment even if the process implementation is rather long and complicated and lacks of global approach including human factors. It is also demonstrated that using LCA as a multi objective optimization of building process will certainly facilitates the improvement in design and decision making for both new design and retrofit projects.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, buildings, sustainability, elementary schools, environmental impacts

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Authors: Babak Daneshvar Rouyendegh

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: Decision-Makers (DMs), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN)

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Authors: Alireza Nikravanshallmani, Jamshid Dehmeshki, Mojtaba Ahmadi

Abstract:

Modeling of business processes, based on BPMN (Business Process Modeling Notation), helps analysts and managers to understand business processes, and, identify their shortages. These models provide a context to make rational decision of organizing business processes activities in an understandable manner. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for better understanding of business processes and their problems by reducing the cognitive load of displayed information for their audience at different managerial levels while keeping the essential information which are needed by them. For this reason, we integrate business process diagrams across the different managerial levels to develop a framework to improve the performance of business process management (BPM) projects. The proposed framework is entitled ‘Business process improvement framework based on managerial levels (BPIML)’. This framework, determine a certain type of business process diagrams (BPD) based on BPMN with respect to the objectives and tasks of the various managerial levels of organizations and their roles in BPM projects. This framework will make us able to provide the necessary support for making decisions about business processes. The framework is evaluated with a case study in a real business process improvement project, to demonstrate its superiority over the conventional method. A questionnaire consisted of 10 questions using Likert scale was designed and given to the participants (managers of Bank Refah Kargaran three managerial levels). By examining the results of the questionnaire, it can be said that the proposed framework provide support for correct and timely decisions by increasing the clarity and transparency of the business processes which led to success in BPM projects.

Keywords: business process management (BPM), business process modeling, business process reengineering (BPR), business process optimizing, BPMN

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Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

Abstract:

The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition

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Authors: Suraj Kumar Mukti

Abstract:

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system is a management tool to integrate all departments in an organization. It integrates business processes, manages resources efficiently and provides an appropriate decision support system to management. ERP system implementation is a typical and time taking process as well as money consuming process. Articles related to key success factors of ERP system implementation are available in the literature, but rare authors have focused on roadmap of successful ERP system implementation. Postponement is better if the organization is not ready to implement ERP system in better way; hence checking of organization’s preparation to adopt new system is an important prerequisite to ensure the success of ERP system implementation in an organization. Then comes what will be called as success of ERP system implementation. Benefits achieved by ERP system may be categorized into two categories; viz. tangible and intangible benefits. This research article presents a roadmap to ensure the success of ERP system implementation and benefits achieved through the new system as in success indicator. A case study is presented to evaluate the success and benefit achieved through the new system. The article gives a comprehensive approach to academicians and a roadmap to the organizations seeking to implement the ERP system.

Keywords: ERP system, decision support system, tangible, intangible

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Authors: Mekdelawit Teferi Alamirew

Abstract:

As a practical tool, the Geographical information system (GIS) was used for data integration, collection, management, analysis, and output presentation in pavement mangement systems . There are many GIS techniques to improve the maintenance activities like Dynamic segmentation and weighted overlay analysis which considers Multi Criteria Decision Making process. The results indicated that the developed MPI model works sufficiently and yields adequate output for providing accurate decisions. Hence considering multi criteria to prioritize the pavement sections for maintenance, as a result of the fact that GIS maps can express position, extent, and severity of pavement distress features more effectively than manual approaches, lastly the paper also offers digitized distress maps that can help agencies in their decision-making processes.

Keywords: pavement, flexible, maintenance, index

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Authors: Onur Özdemir, M.Erhan ORHAN

Abstract:

Knowledge Development (KD) is just one of the important phases of Knowledge Management (KM). KD is the phase in which intelligence is used to see the big picture. In order to understand whether information is important or not, we have to use the intelligence cycle that includes four main steps: aiming, collecting data, processing and utilizing. KD also needs these steps. To make a precise decision, the decision maker has to be aware of his subordinates’ ideas. If the decision maker ignores the ideas of his subordinates or participants of the organization, it is not possible for him to get the target. KD is a way of using wisdom to accumulate the puzzle. If the decision maker does not bring together the puzzle pieces, he cannot get the big picture, and this shows its effects on the battlefield. In order to understand the battlefield, the decision maker has to use the intelligence cycle. To convert information to knowledge, KD is the main means for the intelligence cycle. On the other hand, the “Z Generation” born after the millennium are really the game changers. They have different attitudes from their elders. Their understanding of life is different - the definition of freedom and independence have different meanings to them than others. Decision makers have to consider these factors and rethink their decisions accordingly. This article tries to explain the relation between KD and Generation Z. KD is the main method of target managing. But if leaders neglect their people, the world will be seeing much more movements like the Arab Spring and other insurgencies.

Keywords: knowledge development, knowledge management, generation Z, intelligence cycle

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Authors: Mayuri Roy Choudhury

Abstract:

In recent times the concept of agrivoltaics has gained popularity due to the dual use of land and the added value provided by photovoltaics in terms of renewable energy and crop production on farms. However, the transition towards agrivoltaics has been slow, and our research tries to investigate the obstacles leading towards the slow progress of agrivoltaics. We applied data science decision tree algorithms to quantify qualitative perceptions of farmers in the United States for agrivoltaics. To date, there has not been much research that mentions farmers' perceptions, as most of the research focuses on the benefits of agrivoltaics. Our study adds value by putting forward the voices of farmers, which play a crucial towards the transition to agrivoltaics in the future. Our results show a mixture of responses in favor of agrivoltaics. Furthermore, it also portrays significant concerns of farmers, which is useful for decision-makers when it comes to formulating policies for agrivoltaics.

Keywords: agrivoltaics, decision-tree algorithms, farmers perception, transition

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

Abstract:

Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: Nilesh Pancholi, Mangal Bhatt

Abstract:

This paper highlights comparative results of traditional FMECA and multi-factor decision-making approach based on “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)” for aluminum wire rolling mill plant. The suggested study is carried out to overcome the limitations of FMECA by assigning the scores against each failure modes in crisp values to evaluate the criticalities of the failure modes without uncertainty. The primary findings of the paper are that sudden impact on the rolls seems to be most critical failure cause and high contact stresses due to rolling & sliding action of mesh to be least critical failure cause. It is suggested to modify the current control practices with proper maintenance strategy based on achieved maintainability criticality index (MCI). The outcome of the study will be helpful in deriving optimized maintenance plan to maximize the performance of continuous process industry.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance, FMECA, TOPSIS, process industry

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Authors: M. Macchiaroli, V. Pellecchia, L. Dolores

Abstract:

Within any European and world model of management of the integrated water service (in Italy only since 2012 is regulated by a national Authority, that is ARERA), a significant part is covered by the development of assets in terms of hydraulic networks and wastewater collection networks, including all their relative building works. The process of selecting the investments to be made starts from the preventive analysis of critical issues (water losses, unserved areas, low service standards, etc.) who occur in the managed territory of the Operator. Through the Program of Interventions (Provision by ARERA n. 580/2019/R/idr), the Operator provides to program the projects that can meet the emerged needs to determine the improvement of the water service levels. This phase (analyzed and solved by the author with a work published in 2019) involves the use of evaluation techniques (cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria, and multi-objective techniques, neural networks, etc.) useful in selecting the most appropriate design answers to the different criticalities. However, at this point, the problem of establishing the time priorities between the various works deemed necessary remains open. That is, it is necessary to hierarchize the investments. In this decision-making moment, the interests of the private Operator are often opposed, which favors investments capable of generating high profitability, compared to those of the public controller (ARERA), which favors investments in greater social impact. In support of the concertation between these two actors, the protocol set out in the research has been developed, based on the AHP and capable of borrowing from the programmatic documents an orientation path for the settlement of the conflict. The protocol is applied to a case study of the Campania Region in Italy and has been professionally applied in the shared decision process between the manager and the local Authority.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision making, economic evaluation of projects, integrated water service

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Authors: Itai Kohavi, Wojciech Nowiak

Abstract:

This article explores the stagnation of the Israeli -Palestinian peace negotiation process, and the reasons behind the failure of more than 12 international initiatives to resolve the conflict. Twenty-seven top members of the Israeli national security elite (INSE) were interviewed, including heads of the negotiation teams, the National Security Council, the Mossad, and other intelligence and planning arms. The interviewees provided their insights on the Israeli challenges in reaching a sustainable and stable peace agreement and in dealing with the international pressure on Israel to negotiate a peace agreement while preventing anti-Israeli UN decisions and sanctions. The findings revealed a decision tree, with red herring deception strategies implemented to postpone the negotiation process and to delay major decisions during the negotiation process. Beyond the possible applications for the Israeli – Palestinian conflict, the findings shed more light on the phenomenon of rational deception of allies in a negotiation process, a subject less frequently researched as compared with deception of rivals.

Keywords: deception, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, negotiation, red herring, terrorist state, treadmill negotiation

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Authors: Jheanel E. Estrada, Larry A. Vea

Abstract:

This study developed model to detect proper/improper sitting posture using the built in web camera which detects the upper body points’ location and distances (chin, manubrium and acromion process). It also established relationships of human body frames and proper sitting posture. The models were developed by training some well-known classifiers such as KNN, SVM, MLP, and Decision Tree using the data collected from 60 students of different body frames. Decision Tree classifier demonstrated the most promising model performance with an accuracy of 95.35% and a kappa of 0.907 for head and shoulder posture. Results also showed that there were relationships between body frame and posture through Body Mass Index.

Keywords: posture, spinal points, gyroscope, image processing, ergonomics

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Authors: Cansu Kandemir, Marco Franchino

Abstract:

To attain sustainability goals, the manufacturing industries must assess and improve their processes, adopt the latest technologies, and ensure minimal environmental impact. Ongoing debates claim that the definition of sustainability and its assessment is vague. Companies struggle with understanding which processes they should prioritise and necessitate a methodology to aid decision-making. For that reason, our investigation focused on defining a prioritisation guide to help to manufacture engineers identify areas of a facility to prioritise de-carbonisation efforts based on existing sources of data. The authors at the University of Sheffield Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre (AMRC) worked with a range of major businesses, including Food and Drink (Moy Park), Automotive (Nissan), Aerospace and Defence (BAE, Meggitt, Leonardo, and GKN) and Technology (Accenture and Intellium AI). Collected information has been integrated into a prioritisation guide framework that helps process comparison and decision-making. The framework developed in this study aims to ensure that companies have guidance on where to focus their efforts whilst striving to fulfil their environmental and societal obligations.

Keywords: decision making, sustainability, carbon emissions, manufacturing

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Authors: Larry O. Awo, George N. Duru

Abstract:

There are growing public and mental health concerns over the availability of gambling platforms and shops in Nigeria and the high level of youth involvement in gambling. Early theorizing maintained that gambling involvement was driven by a quest for resource gains. However, evidence shows that the economic model of gambling tends to explain the involvement of the gambling business owners (sport lottery operators: SLOs) as most gamblers lose more than they win. This loss, according to the law of effect, ought to discourage decisions to gamble. However, the quest to recover losses has often initiated prolonged gambling sessions. Therefore, the need to investigate mental contemplations (such as counterfactual reasoning (upward versus downward) of what “would, should, or could” have been, and feeling of the illusion of control; IOC) over gambling outcomes as risk or protective factors in gambling decisions became pertinent. The present study sought to understand the differential contributions and conditional effects of upward versus downward counterfactual reasoning as pathways through which the association between IOC and gambling decisions of Nigerian youths (N = 120, mean age = 18.05, SD = 3.81) could be explained. The study adopted a randomized group design, and data were obtained by means of stimulus material (the Gambling Episode; GE) and self-report measures of IOC and Gambling Decision. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) result showed that participants in the upward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 22.08) differed from their colleagues in the downward counterfactual reasoning group (M = 17.33) on the decision to gamble, and this difference was significant [F(1,112) = 23, P < .01]. HAYES PROCESS macro moderation analysis results showed that 1) IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were positively associated with the decision to gamble (B = 14.21, t = 6.10, p < .01 and B = 7.22, t = 2.07, p <.05, respectively), 2) downward counterfactual reasoning was negatively associated with the decision to gamble more to recover losses (B = 10.03, t = 3.21, p < .01), 3) upward counterfactual reasoning did not moderate the association between IOC and gambling decision (p > .05), and 4) downward counterfactual reasoning negatively moderated the association between IOC and gambling decision (B = 07, t = 2.18, p < .05) such that the association was strong at the low level of downward counterfactual, but wane at high levels of downward counterfactual reasoning. The implication of these findings is that IOC and upward counterfactual reasoning were risk factors and promoted gambling behavior, while downward counterfactual reasoning protects individuals from gambling activities. Thus, it is concluded that downward counterfactual reasoning strategies should be included in gambling therapy and treatment packages as it could diminish feelings of both IOC and negative feelings of missed positive outcomes and the urge to gamble.

Keywords: counterfactual reasoning, gambling cognition, gambling decision, Nigeria, youths

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Authors: Hadia Rafi

Abstract:

To make any decision in any work/task/project it involves many factors that needed to be looked. The analytic Hierarchy process (AHP) is based on the judgments of experts to derive the required results this technique measures the intangibles and then by the help of judgment and software analysis the comparisons are made which shows how much a certain element/unit leads another. AHP includes how an inconsistent judgment should be made consistent and how the judgment should be improved when possible. The Priority scales are obtained by multiplying them with the priority of their parent node and after that they are added.

Keywords: AHP, priority scales, parent node, software analysis

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Authors: Małgorzata Cichy

Abstract:

Afghanistan is a source of conflicts that affect security on a global scale. The role of ethnic and national determinants in the peacebuilding process in this country remains an extremely important factor in this respect. Research methods include literature and data analysis (scientific literature, documents of governmental and non-governmental organizations, statistical data and media reports), institutional and legal analysis, as well as decision-making method. The main objective of the research is a comprehensive answer to the question of how ethnic and national factors affect the process of building peace in Afghanistan after 2021 and what impact it has on international security.

Keywords: Afghanistan, pashtuns, peace, taliban

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Authors: Herke Csongor

Abstract:

The artificial intelligence (AI) has been used in the United States of America in the decisionmaking process of the criminal justice system for decades. In the field of law, including criminal law, AI can provide serious assistance in decision-making in many places. The paper reviews four main areas where AI still plays a role in the criminal justice system and where it is expected to play an increasingly important role. The first area is the predictive policing: a number of algorithms are used to prevent the commission of crimes (by predicting potential crime locations or perpetrators). This may include the so-called linking hot-spot analysis, crime linking and the predictive coding. The second area is the Big Data analysis: huge amounts of data sets are already opaque to human activity and therefore unprocessable. Law is one of the largest producers of digital documents (because not only decisions, but nowadays the entire document material is available digitally), and this volume can only and exclusively be handled with the help of computer programs, which the development of AI systems can have an increasing impact on. The third area is the criminal statistical data analysis. The collection of statistical data using traditional methods required enormous human resources. The AI is a huge step forward in that it can analyze the database itself, based on the requested aspects, a collection according to any aspect can be available in a few seconds, and the AI itself can analyze the database and indicate if it finds an important connection either from the point of view of crime prevention or crime detection. Finally, the use of AI during decision-making in both investigative and judicial fields is analyzed in detail. While some are skeptical about the future role of AI in decision-making, many believe that the question is not whether AI will participate in decision-making, but only when and to what extent it will transform the current decision-making system.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, international criminal cooperation, planning and organizing of the investigation, risk assessment

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

Abstract:

Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Zerroug Abdelhamid, Danielle Chassoux

Abstract:

Various models are given to simulate homogeneous or heterogeneous cancerous tumors and extract in each case the boundary. The fractal dimension is then estimated by least squares method and compared to some previous methods.

Keywords: simulation, cancerous tumor, Markov fields, fractal dimension, extraction, recovering

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Authors: Yenie Norambuena

Abstract:

Analogical reasoning is a cognitive process that consists of structured comparisons of mental representations and scheme construction. Because of its heuristic function, it is ubiquitous in cognition and could play an important role in language development. The use of analogies is expressed early in children and this behavior is also reflected in language, suggesting a possible way to understand the complex links between thought and language. The current research examines factors of verbal and non-verbal reasoning that should be taken into consideration in the study of language development for their relations and predictive value. The study was conducted with 48 Chilean preschoolers (Spanish speakers) from 4 to 6-year-old. We assessed children’s verbal analogical reasoning, non-verbal analogical reasoning and linguistics skills (Listening Comprehension, Phonemic awareness, Alphabetic principle, Syllabification, Lexical repetition and Lexical decision). The results evidenced significant correlations between analogical reasoning factors and linguistic skills and they can predict linguistic performance mainly on oral comprehension, lexical decision and phonological skills. These findings suggest a fundamental interrelationship between analogical reasoning and linguistic performance on children’s and points to the need to consider this cognitive process in comprehensive theories of children's language development.

Keywords: verbal analogical reasoning, non-verbal analogical reasoning, linguistic skills, language development

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Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung Heon Han, Seung Won Baek

Abstract:

Natural gas (NG) is an energy resource in a few countries, and most NG producers do business in politically unstable countries. In addition, as 90% of the LNG market is controlled by a small number of international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs), entry of latecomers into the market is extremely limited. To meet these challenges, project viability needs to be assessed based on limited information from a project screening perspective. However, the early stages of the project have the following difficulties: (1) What are the factors to consider? (2) How many professionals do you need to decide? (3) How to make the best decision with limited information? To address this problem, this study proposes a model for evaluating LNG project viability based on the Dempster-Shafer theory (DST). A total of 11 indicators for analyzing the gas field, reflecting the characteristics of the LNG industry, and 23 indicators for analyzing the market environment, were identified. The proposed model also evaluates the LNG project based on the survey and provides uncertainty of the results based on DST as well as quantified results. Thus, the proposed model is expected to be able to support the decision-making process of the gas field project using quantitative results as a systematic framework, and it was developed as a stand-alone system to improve its usefulness in practice. Consequently, the amount of information and the mathematical approach are expected to improve the quality and opportunity of decision making for LNG projects for enterprises.

Keywords: project screen, energy enterprise, decision support system, Dempster-Shafer theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 313