Search results for: single error upset
2313 Mathematical Study for Traffic Flow and Traffic Density in Kigali Roads
Authors: Kayijuka Idrissa
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This work investigates a mathematical study for traffic flow and traffic density in Kigali city roads and the data collected from the national police of Rwanda in 2012. While working on this topic, some mathematical models were used in order to analyze and compare traffic variables. This work has been carried out on Kigali roads specifically at roundabouts from Kigali Business Center (KBC) to Prince House as our study sites. In this project, we used some mathematical tools to analyze the data collected and to understand the relationship between traffic variables. We applied the Poisson distribution method to analyze and to know the number of accidents occurred in this section of the road which is from KBC to Prince House. The results show that the accidents that occurred in 2012 were at very high rates due to the fact that this section has a very narrow single lane on each side which leads to high congestion of vehicles, and consequently, accidents occur very frequently. Using the data of speeds and densities collected from this section of road, we found that the increment of the density results in a decrement of the speed of the vehicle. At the point where the density is equal to the jam density the speed becomes zero. The approach is promising in capturing sudden changes on flow patterns and is open to be utilized in a series of intelligent management strategies and especially in noncurrent congestion effect detection and control.Keywords: statistical methods, traffic flow, Poisson distribution, car moving technics
Procedia PDF Downloads 2842312 National Assessment for Schools in Saudi Arabia: Score Reliability and Plausible Values
Authors: Dimiter M. Dimitrov, Abdullah Sadaawi
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The National Assessment for Schools (NAFS) in Saudi Arabia consists of standardized tests in Mathematics, Reading, and Science for school grade levels 3, 6, and 9. One main goal is to classify students into four categories of NAFS performance (minimal, basic, proficient, and advanced) by schools and the entire national sample. The NAFS scoring and equating is performed on a bounded scale (D-scale: ranging from 0 to 1) in the framework of the recently developed “D-scoring method of measurement.” The specificity of the NAFS measurement framework and data complexity presented both challenges and opportunities to (a) the estimation of score reliability for schools, (b) setting cut-scores for the classification of students into categories of performance, and (c) generating plausible values for distributions of student performance on the D-scale. The estimation of score reliability at the school level was performed in the framework of generalizability theory (GT), with students “nested” within schools and test items “nested” within test forms. The GT design was executed via a multilevel modeling syntax code in R. Cut-scores (on the D-scale) for the classification of students into performance categories was derived via a recently developed method of standard setting, referred to as “Response Vector for Mastery” (RVM) method. For each school, the classification of students into categories of NAFS performance was based on distributions of plausible values for the students’ scores on NAFS tests by grade level (3, 6, and 9) and subject (Mathematics, Reading, and Science). Plausible values (on the D-scale) for each individual student were generated via random selection from a statistical logit-normal distribution with parameters derived from the student’s D-score and its conditional standard error, SE(D). All procedures related to D-scoring, equating, generating plausible values, and classification of students into performance levels were executed via a computer program in R developed for the purpose of NAFS data analysis.Keywords: large-scale assessment, reliability, generalizability theory, plausible values
Procedia PDF Downloads 232311 Effect of Laminating Sequence of MWCNTs and Fe₂O₃ Filled Nanocomposites on Emi Shielding Effectiveness
Authors: Javeria Ahmad, Ayesha Maryam, Zahid Rizwan, Nadeem Nasir, Yasir Nawab, Hafiz Shehbaz Ahmad
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Mitigation of electromagnetic interference (EMI) through thin, lightweight, and cost-effective materials is critical for electronic appliances as well as human health. The present research work discusses the design of composites that are suitable to minimize EMI through various stacking sequences. The carbon fibers reinforced composite structures impregnated with dielectric (MWCNTs) and magnetic nanofillers (Fe₂O₃) were developed to investigate their microwave absorption properties. The composite structure comprising a single type of nanofillers, each of MWCNTs & Fe₂O₃, was developed, and then their layers were stacked over each other with various stacking sequences to investigate the best stacking sequence, which presents good microwave absorption characteristics. A vector network analyzer (VNA) was used to analyze the microwave absorption properties of these developed composite structures. The composite structures impregnated with the layers of a dielectric nanofiller and sandwiched between the layers of a magnetic nanofiller show the highest EMI shielding value of 59 dB and a dielectric conductivity of 35 S/cm in the frequency range of 0.1 to 13.6 GHz. The results also demonstrate that the microwave absorption properties of the developed composite structures were dominant over reflection properties. The absence of an external peak in X-ray diffraction (XRD), marked the purity of the added nanofillers.Keywords: nanocomposites, microwave absorption, EMI shielding, skin depth, reflection loss
Procedia PDF Downloads 562310 Human-factor and Ergonomics in Bottling Lines
Authors: Parameshwaran Nair
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Filling and packaging lines for bottling of beverages into glass, PET or aluminum containers require specialized expertise and a different configuration of equipment like – Filler, Warmer, Labeller, Crater/Recrater, Shrink Packer, Carton Erector, Carton Sealer, Date Coder, Palletizer, etc. Over the period of time, the packaging industry has evolved from manually operated single station machines to highly automized high-speed lines. Human factor and ergonomics have gained significant consideration in this course of transformation. A pre-requisite for such bottling lines, irrespective of the container type and size, is to be suitable for multi-format applications. It should also be able to handle format changeovers with minimal adjustment. It should have variable capacity and speeds, for providing great flexibility of use in managing accumulation times as a function of production characteristics. In terms of layout as well, it should demonstrate flexibility for operator movement and access to machine areas for maintenance. Packaging technology during the past few decades has risen to these challenges by a series of major breakthroughs interspersed with periods of refinement and improvement. The milestones are many and varied and are described briefly in this paper. In order to have a brief understanding of the human factor and ergonomics in the modern packaging lines, this paper, highlights the various technologies, design considerations and statutory requirements in packaging equipment for different types of containers used in India.Keywords: human-factor, ergonomics, bottling lines, automized high-speed lines
Procedia PDF Downloads 4412309 Data Mining Approach: Classification Model Evaluation
Authors: Lubabatu Sada Sodangi
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The rapid growth in exchange and accessibility of information via the internet makes many organisations acquire data on their own operation. The aim of data mining is to analyse the different behaviour of a dataset using observation. Although, the subset of the dataset being analysed may not display all the behaviours and relationships of the entire data and, therefore, may not represent other parts that exist in the dataset. There is a range of techniques used in data mining to determine the hidden or unknown information in datasets. In this paper, the performance of two algorithms Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) would be matched using an Adult dataset to find out the percentage of an/the adults that earn > 50k and those that earn <= 50k per year. The two algorithms were studied and compared using IBM SPSS statistics software. The result for CHAID shows that the most important predictors are relationship and education. The algorithm shows that those are married (husband) and have qualification: Bachelor, Masters, Doctorate or Prof-school whose their age is > 41<57 earn > 50k. Also, multilayer perceptron displays marital status and capital gain as the most important predictors of the income. It also shows that individuals that their capital gain is less than 6,849 and are single, separated or widow, earn <= 50K, whereas individuals with their capital gain is > 6,849, work > 35 hrs/wk, and > 27yrs their income will be > 50k. By comparing the two algorithms, it is observed that both algorithms are reliable but there is strong reliability in CHAID which clearly shows that relation and education contribute to the prediction as displayed in the data visualisation.Keywords: data mining, CHAID, multi-layer perceptron, SPSS, Adult dataset
Procedia PDF Downloads 3822308 Implementation of a Multimodal Biometrics Recognition System with Combined Palm Print and Iris Features
Authors: Rabab M. Ramadan, Elaraby A. Elgallad
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With extensive application, the performance of unimodal biometrics systems has to face a diversity of problems such as signal and background noise, distortion, and environment differences. Therefore, multimodal biometric systems are proposed to solve the above stated problems. This paper introduces a bimodal biometric recognition system based on the extracted features of the human palm print and iris. Palm print biometric is fairly a new evolving technology that is used to identify people by their palm features. The iris is a strong competitor together with face and fingerprints for presence in multimodal recognition systems. In this research, we introduced an algorithm to the combination of the palm and iris-extracted features using a texture-based descriptor, the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT). Since the feature sets are non-homogeneous as features of different biometric modalities are used, these features will be concatenated to form a single feature vector. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used as a feature selection technique to reduce the dimensionality of the feature. The proposed algorithm will be applied to the Institute of Technology of Delhi (IITD) database and its performance will be compared with various iris recognition algorithms found in the literature.Keywords: iris recognition, particle swarm optimization, feature extraction, feature selection, palm print, the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT)
Procedia PDF Downloads 2402307 Experimental Study on a Solar Heat Concentrating Steam Generator
Authors: Qiangqiang Xu, Xu Ji, Jingyang Han, Changchun Yang, Ming Li
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Replacing of complex solar concentrating unit, this paper designs a solar heat-concentrating medium-temperature steam-generating system. Solar radiation is collected by using a large solar collecting and heat concentrating plate and is converged to the metal evaporating pipe with high efficient heat transfer. In the meantime, the heat loss is reduced by employing a double-glazed cover and other heat insulating structures. Thus, a high temperature is reached in the metal evaporating pipe. The influences of the system's structure parameters on system performance are analyzed. The steam production rate and the steam production under different solar irradiance, solar collecting and heat concentrating plate area, solar collecting and heat concentrating plate temperature and heat loss are obtained. The results show that when solar irradiance is higher than 600 W/m2, the effective heat collecting area is 7.6 m2 and the double-glazing cover is adopted, the system heat loss amount is lower than the solar irradiance value. The stable steam is produced in the metal evaporating pipe at 100 ℃, 110 ℃, and 120 ℃, respectively. When the average solar irradiance is about 896 W/m2, and the steaming cumulative time is about 5 hours, the daily steam production of the system is about 6.174 kg. In a single day, the solar irradiance is larger at noon, thus the steam production rate is large at that time. Before 9:00 and after 16:00, the solar irradiance is smaller, and the steam production rate is almost 0.Keywords: heat concentrating, heat loss, medium temperature, solar steam production
Procedia PDF Downloads 1832306 Application of Carbon Nanotube and Nanowire FET Devices in Future VLSI
Authors: Saurabh Chaudhury, Sanjeet Kumar Sinha
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The MOSFET has been the main building block in high performance and low power VLSI chips for the last several decades. Device scaling is fundamental to technological advancements, which allows more devices to be integrated on a single die providing greater functionality per chip. Ultimately, the goal of scaling is to build an individual transistor that is smaller, faster, cheaper, and consumes less power. Scaling continued following Moore's law initially and now we see an exponential growth in today's nano scaled chip. However, device scaling to deep nano meter regime leads to exponential increase in leakage currents and excessive heat generation. Moreover, fabrication process variability causing a limitation to further scaling. Researchers believe that with a mix of chemistry, physics, and engineering, nano electronics may provide a solution to increasing fabrication costs and may allow integrated circuits to be scaled beyond the limits of the modern transistor. Carbon nano tube (CNT) and nano wires (NW) based FETs have been analyzed and characterized in laboratory and also been demonstrated as prototypes. This work presents an extensive simulation based study and analysis of CNTFET and NW-FET devices and comparison of the results with conventional MOSFET. From this study, we can conclude that these devices have got some excellent properties and favorable characteristics which will definitely lead the future semiconductor devices in post silicon era.Keywords: carbon nanotube, nanowire FET, low power, nanoscaled devices, VLSI
Procedia PDF Downloads 4162305 The Socio-Religious, Economic, and Cultural Impacts of Aso-Ebi on South-East Nigeria
Authors: Nwaoga, Theresa Chinyere
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The paper examines the impacts of Aso-Ebi, a Yoruba term for ‘uniform’ on the people of south-east Nigeria. Aso-Ebi is used to denote uniform wear which is typical of the people of south-west Nigeria. In the 1980s and 1990s, uniform wears were used only by immediate family members of a deceased person. This is for easy identification by visitors—to know those who are related to the deceased person. Aso-Ebi is now part of a culture that has existed in Nigeria from the Yoruba and transcended to other parts of Nigeria, precisely south-east Nigeria. The buying of Aso-Ebi and attending the occasions in the attire is the only way of showing solidarity and support to the celebrant. Aso-Ebi has led to creating a sense of belonging, opening of doors for marriage by those single, and fundraising. As part of the findings, it was discovered that Aso-Ebi has led to an increase in marital infidelity and divorce, robbery, prostitution, depression, and an increase in enmity between friends in south-east Nigeria. Data was generated through oral interviews, focus group discussion and participant observation. Secondary data were obtained from journals, textbooks, the internet and periodicals. The phenomenological method of research was used as the methodology. This method allows for an objective report and analysis of the research problem. Aso-Ebi has come to stay in Igbo culture, so there should be a proper re-orientation on the uses of Aso-Ebi during occasions like burial in Igbo land. The campaign can start from the church by discouraging people from using Aso-Ebi during burials and wedding ceremonies.Keywords: Asho Ebi, uniformed women, burial ceremonies, August meetings
Procedia PDF Downloads 1502304 Pinch Technology for Minimization of Water Consumption at a Refinery
Authors: W. Mughees, M. Alahmad
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Water is the most significant entity that controls local and global development. For the Gulf region, especially Saudi Arabia, with its limited potable water resources, the potential of the fresh water problem is highly considerable. In this research, the study involves the design and analysis of pinch-based water/wastewater networks. Multiple water/wastewater networks were developed using pinch analysis involving direct recycle/material recycle method. Property-integration technique was adopted to carry out direct recycle method. Particularly, a petroleum refinery was considered as a case study. In direct recycle methodology, minimum water discharge and minimum fresh water resource targets were estimated. Re-design (or retrofitting) of water allocation in the networks was undertaken. Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and hardness properties were taken as pollutants. This research was based on single and double contaminant approach for COD and hardness and the amount of fresh water was reduced from 340.0 m3/h to 149.0 m3/h (43.8%), 208.0 m3/h (61.18%) respectively. While regarding double contaminant approach, reduction in fresh water demand was 132.0 m3/h (38.8%). The required analysis was also carried out using mathematical programming technique. Operating software such as LINGO was used for these studies which have verified the graphical method results in a valuable and accurate way. Among the multiple water networks, the one possible water allocation network was developed based on mass exchange.Keywords: minimization, water pinch, water management, pollution prevention
Procedia PDF Downloads 4832303 Prevalence of Anemia and Iron Deficiency in Women of Childbearing Age in the North-West of Libya
Authors: Mustafa Ali Abugila, Basma Nuri Kajruba, Hanan Elhadi, Rehab Ramadan Wali
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Iron deficiency anemia is characterized by a decrease of Hb (hemoglobin), serum iron, ferritin, and RBC (red blood cells) (shape and size). Also, it is characterized by an increase in total iron binding capacity (TIBC). Red blood cells become microctytic and hypochromic due to a decrease in iron content. This study was conducted in the north west of Libya and included 210 women in childbearing age (18-45 years) who were visiting women clinic. After filling the questionnaire, blood samples were taken and analyzed for hematological and biochemical profiles. Biochemical tests included measurement of serum iron, ferritin, and total iron binding capacity (TIBC). Among the total sample (210 women), there were 87 (41.42%) pregnant and 123 (58.57%) non-pregnant women (includes married and single). Pregnant women (87) were classified according to the gestational age into first, second, and third trimesters. The means of biochemical and hematological parameters in the studied samples were: Hb = 10.37± 2.02 g/dl, RBC = 3.78± 1.037 m/m3, serum iron 61.86± 40.28 µg/dl, and TIBC = 386.01 ± 94.91 µg/dl. In this study, we considered that any women have hemoglobin below 11.5 g/dl is anemic. 89.1%, 69.5%, and 47.8% of pregnant women who belong to third trimester had low (below normal value) Hb, serum iron, and ferritin, i.e. iron deficiency anemia was more common in third trimester among the first and the second trimesters. Third trimester pregnant women also had high TIBC more than first and second trimesters.Keywords: red blood cells, hemoglobin, total iron binding capacity, ferritin
Procedia PDF Downloads 5342302 Neuroevolution Based on Adaptive Ensembles of Biologically Inspired Optimization Algorithms Applied for Modeling a Chemical Engineering Process
Authors: Sabina-Adriana Floria, Marius Gavrilescu, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton
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Neuroevolution is a subfield of artificial intelligence used to solve various problems in different application areas. Specifically, neuroevolution is a technique that applies biologically inspired methods to generate neural network architectures and optimize their parameters automatically. In this paper, we use different biologically inspired optimization algorithms in an ensemble strategy with the aim of training multilayer perceptron neural networks, resulting in regression models used to simulate the industrial chemical process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. In addition, the initial conditions that were taken into account during the design and commissioning of the installation can change over time, which leads to the need to add new mixes to adjust the operating conditions for the desired purpose, e.g., material properties and energy saving. The present approach follows the study by simulation of a process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials, i.e., the modeling and optimization of the process. Optimization aims to determine the working conditions that minimize the emissions represented by nitrogen monoxide. We first use a search procedure to find the best values for the parameters of various biologically inspired optimization algorithms. Then, we propose an adaptive ensemble strategy that uses only a subset of the best algorithms identified in the search stage. The adaptive ensemble strategy combines the results of selected algorithms and automatically assigns more processing capacity to the more efficient algorithms. Their efficiency may also vary at different stages of the optimization process. In a given ensemble iteration, the most efficient algorithms aim to maintain good convergence, while the less efficient algorithms can improve population diversity. The proposed adaptive ensemble strategy outperforms the individual optimizers and the non-adaptive ensemble strategy in convergence speed, and the obtained results provide lower error values.Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, neuroevolution, ensembles, bricks, emission minimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 1232301 Drop-Out Rate in Leocadio Alejo Entienza High School for SY 2013-2014: Its Causes and Interventions
Authors: Raquel Balon Quintana
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This study aims to help the Students-At-Risk of Dropping Out to finish their studies in their grade/year level category for this school year by finding out students’ behavior in and out the school, community involvement in the learning process and the causes or reasons behind drop-out rate that affect the performance level of the school. This study also looked for the intervention measures to reduce the drop-out rate of the school. The Normative Survey Method of research was used to achieve its purpose and objective of conducting interview with students and their parents, subject teachers, classmates and friends; undertaking observation and monitoring to find out the whereabouts of SARDO’s on and off classes hours; using questionnaires; and conducting home visitation to be able to link the community involvement into dropping-out of student. Results of the study revealed that out of 32 Students-At-Risk of Dropping Out, 50% were over age for high school (16 years old to 21 years old) while the other 50% came from the regular high school students. These 16 students came from the 41 students who dropped-out from their classes last school year. All Students-At-Risk of Dropping-Out are single and seventy-eight percent of them are male. Top five (5) among the factors that affect their school performance were peer pressure, self-drive, malnutrition, family problem/support and truancy. The five (5) least factors that affect their schooling were problems within their community, school-administration factor, harassment, teacher factor and distance from the school.Keywords: students-at-risk of dropping-out, drop-out rate, Leocadio Alejo Entienza High School, Philippines
Procedia PDF Downloads 5632300 Lack of Functional Interaction between Nitric Oxide and ET-A Receptors in Cisplatin-Induced Acute Renal Failure
Authors: Mai M. Helmy
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Although the role of either nitric oxide (NO) or endothelin receptors modulation in the severity of cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity has been recognized in previous studies including our own, the possible interaction between the two pathways remains obscure. In this study, we tested the possible interaction between the nitrergic and endothelin pathways in cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity in male rats. Sprague Dawley male rats (200 to 250 g) were divided into four groups: Control (given a single dose of normal saline, i.p.), cisplatin (6 mg/kg, i.p.), cisplatin+Sildenafil (2 mg/kg, i.p.), cisplatin+Sildenafil+BQ-123 (1 mg/kg, i.p.). Each of the co-administered drugs was given in two doses; one hour before and one day after the cisplatin dose. Acute cisplatin administration resulted in significant increases in BUN and serum creatinine levels at 96 h following cisplatin injection. Increased levels of MDA, TNF-α and caspase-3, decreased nitrite/nitrate level and SOD activity in kidney homogenates were also observed following cisplatin injection. According to the obtained results, the co-adminstration of sildenafil alone with cisplatin offered a reno-protective effect comparable to that obtained following the concurrent administration of both sildenafil and the selective ETAR antagonist BQ-123. Thus, the current study is the first to reveal that the presence of an intact NO/cGMP system may offer a moderate reno-protective effect against cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity even in the presence of ETAR-mediated vasoconstriction, suggesting the absence of obvious functional interaction between the nitrergic and endothelin pathways in cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity in male rats.Keywords: BQ-123, cisplatin, endothelin-1, nephrotoxicity, sildenafil
Procedia PDF Downloads 4492299 Suitability of Satellite-Based Data for Groundwater Modelling in Southwest Nigeria
Authors: O. O. Aiyelokun, O. A. Agbede
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Numerical modelling of groundwater flow can be susceptible to calibration errors due to lack of adequate ground-based hydro-metrological stations in river basins. Groundwater resources management in Southwest Nigeria is currently challenged by overexploitation, lack of planning and monitoring, urbanization and climate change; hence to adopt models as decision support tools for sustainable management of groundwater; they must be adequately calibrated. Since river basins in Southwest Nigeria are characterized by missing data, and lack of adequate ground-based hydro-meteorological stations; the need for adopting satellite-based data for constructing distributed models is crucial. This study seeks to evaluate the suitability of satellite-based data as substitute for ground-based, for computing boundary conditions; by determining if ground and satellite based meteorological data fit well in Ogun and Oshun River basins. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset was firstly obtained in daily form and converted to monthly form for the period of 432 months (January 1979 to June, 2014). Afterwards, ground-based meteorological data for Ikeja (1981-2010), Abeokuta (1983-2010), and Oshogbo (1981-2010) were compared with CFSR data using Goodness of Fit (GOF) statistics. The study revealed that based on mean absolute error (MEA), coefficient of correlation, (r) and coefficient of determination (R²); all meteorological variables except wind speed fit well. It was further revealed that maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall had high range of index of agreement (d) and ratio of standard deviation (rSD), implying that CFSR dataset could be used to compute boundary conditions such as groundwater recharge and potential evapotranspiration. The study concluded that satellite-based data such as the CFSR should be used as input when constructing groundwater flow models in river basins in Southwest Nigeria, where majority of the river basins are partially gaged and characterized with long missing hydro-metrological data.Keywords: boundary condition, goodness of fit, groundwater, satellite-based data
Procedia PDF Downloads 1322298 Personality as a Predictor of Knowledge Hiding Behavior: Case Study of Alpha Electronics
Authors: Sadeeqa Khan, Muhammad Usman
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Employees’ knowledge hiding behaviors can be detrimental to employees’ interpersonal relationships and individual and organizational learning and creativity. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the literature on the contingencies, antecedents and outcomes of employees’ knowledge hiding behaviors is still in its infancy. On the other hand, not everyone who hides knowledge hides it the same way, as individuals are different, so do their behaviors. This study explores the links between employees’ personality traits and their knowledge hiding behaviors. By using a single case study as a research methodology and collecting data through 28 semi-structured interviews from employees working in Alpha Electronics (the pseudo name of the company to ascertain anonymity) operating in Pakistan, we foreground the patterns of relationships between employees’ personality traits and knowledge hiding behaviors – rationalized hiding, evasive hiding and playing dumb. Our findings suggest that employees high on extraversion involve in evasive knowledge hiding; while employees low on extraversion (introverts) demonstrate rationalized hiding. Moreover, both extrovert and introvert employees involve in playing dumb in situations that involve risk for their jobs and careers. For instance, when knowledge is requested from their managers, both extrovert and introvert employees tend to play dumb, as in such cases, evasive and rationalized hiding can be harmful to their job and career-related interests and motives. Other than theoretical contributions, the study offers important implications for organizations faced with the challenges of shortage of skills and knowledge.Keywords: knowledge hiding, personality, rationalized hiding, playing dumb, evasive hiding
Procedia PDF Downloads 2172297 Short Life Cycle Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar
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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series
Procedia PDF Downloads 3632296 A Review on the Future Canadian RADARSAT Constellation Mission and Its Capabilities
Authors: Mohammed Dabboor
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Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems are active remote sensing systems independent of weather and sun illumination, two factors which usually inhibit the use of optical satellite imagery. A SAR system could acquire single, dual, compact or fully polarized SAR imagery. Each SAR imagery type has its advantages and disadvantages. The sensitivity of SAR images is a function of the: 1) band, polarization, and incidence angle of the transmitted electromagnetic signal, and 2) geometric and dielectric properties of the radar target. The RADARSAT-1 (launched on November 4, 1995), RADARSAT-2 ((launched on December 14, 2007) and RADARSAT Constellation Mission (to be launched in July 2018) are three past, current, and future Canadian SAR space missions. Canada is developing the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM) using small satellites to further maximize the capability to carry out round-the-clock surveillance from space. The Canadian Space Agency, in collaboration with other government-of-Canada departments, is leading the design, development and operation of the RADARSAT Constellation Mission to help addressing key priorities. The purpose of our presentation is to give an overview of the future Canadian RCM SAR mission with its satellites. Also, the RCM SAR imaging modes along with the expected SAR products will be described. An emphasis will be given to the mission unique capabilities and characteristics, such as the new compact polarimetry SAR configuration. In this presentation, we will summarize the RCM advancement from previous RADARSAT satellite missions. Furthermore, the potential of the RCM mission for different Earth observation applications will be outlined.Keywords: compact polarimetry, RADARSAT, SAR mission, SAR applications
Procedia PDF Downloads 1862295 The Influence of Hydrogen Addition to Natural Gas Networks on Gas Appliances
Authors: Yitong Xie, Chaokui Qin, Zhiguang Chen, Shuangqian Guo
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Injecting hydrogen, a competitive carbon-free energy carrier, into existing natural gas networks has become a promising step toward alleviating global warming. Considering the differences in properties of hydrogen and natural gas, there is very little evidence showing how many degrees of hydrogen admixture can be accepted and how to adjust appliances to adapt to gas constituents' variation. The lack of this type of analysis provides more uncertainty in injecting hydrogen into networks because of the short the basis of burner design and adjustment. First, the properties of methane and hydrogen were compared for a comprehensive analysis of the impact of hydrogen addition to methane. As the main determinant of flame stability, the burning velocity was adopted for hydrogen addition analysis. Burning velocities for hydrogen-enriched natural gas with different hydrogen percentages and equivalence ratios were calculated by the software CHEMKIN. Interchangeability methods, including single index methods, multi indices methods, and diagram methods, were adopted to determine the limit of hydrogen percentage. Cooktops and water heaters were experimentally tested in the laboratory. Flame structures of different hydrogen percentages and equivalence ratios were observed and photographed. Besides, the change in heat efficiency, burner temperature, emission by hydrogen percentage, and equivalence ratio was studied. The experiment methodologies and results in this paper provide an important basis for the introduction of hydrogen into gas pipelines and the adjustment of gas appliances.Keywords: hydrogen, methane, combustion, appliances, interchangeability
Procedia PDF Downloads 962294 Effect of Perceived Importance of a Task in the Prospective Memory Task
Authors: Kazushige Wada, Mayuko Ueda
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In the present study, we reanalyzed lapse errors in the last phase of a job, by re-counting near lapse errors and increasing the number of participants. We also examined the results of this study from the perspective of prospective memory (PM), which concerns future actions. This study was designed to investigate whether perceiving the importance of PM tasks caused lapse errors in the last phase of a job and to determine if such errors could be explained from the perspective of PM processing. Participants (N = 34) conducted a computerized clicking task, in which they clicked on 10 figures that they had learned in advance in 8 blocks of 10 trials. Participants were requested to click the check box in the start display of a block and to click the checking off box in the finishing display. This task was a PM task. As a measure of PM performance, we counted the number of omission errors caused by forgetting to check off in the finishing display, which was defined as a lapse error. The perceived importance was manipulated by different instructions. Half the participants in the highly important task condition were instructed that checking off was very important, because equipment would be overloaded if it were not done. The other half in the not important task condition was instructed only about the location and procedure for checking off. Furthermore, we controlled workload and the emotion of surprise to confirm the effect of demand capacity and attention. To manipulate emotions during the clicking task, we suddenly presented a photo of a traffic accident and the sound of a skidding car followed by an explosion. Workload was manipulated by requesting participants to press the 0 key in response to a beep. Results indicated too few forgetting induced lapse errors to be analyzed. However, there was a weak main effect of the perceived importance of the check task, in which the mouse moved to the “END” button before moving to the check box in the finishing display. Especially, the highly important task group showed more such near lapse errors, than the not important task group. Neither surprise, nor workload affected the occurrence of near lapse errors. These results imply that high perceived importance of PM tasks impair task performance. On the basis of the multiprocess framework of PM theory, we have suggested that PM task performance in this experiment relied not on monitoring PM tasks, but on spontaneous retrieving.Keywords: prospective memory, perceived importance, lapse errors, multi process framework of prospective memory.
Procedia PDF Downloads 4512293 Technologic Information about Photovoltaic Applied in Urban Residences
Authors: Stephanie Fabris Russo, Daiane Costa Guimarães, Jonas Pedro Fabris, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo, José Augusto Andrade Filho
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Among renewable energy sources, solar energy is the one that has stood out. Solar radiation can be used as a thermal energy source and can also be converted into electricity by means of effects on certain materials, such as thermoelectric and photovoltaic panels. These panels are often used to generate energy in homes, buildings, arenas, etc., and have low pollution emissions. Thus, a technological prospecting was performed to find patents related to the use of photovoltaic plates in urban residences. The patent search was based on ESPACENET, associating the keywords photovoltaic and home, where we found 136 patent documents in the period of 1994-2015 in the fields title and abstract. Note that the years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had the highest number of applicants, with respectively, 11, 13, 23, 29, 15 and 21. Regarding the country that deposited about this technology, it is clear that China leads with 67 patent deposits, followed by Japan with 38 patents applications. It is important to note that most depositors, 50% are companies, 44% are individual inventors and only 6% are universities. On the International Patent classification (IPC) codes, we noted that the most present classification in results was H02J3/38, which represents provisions in parallel to feed a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers. Among all categories, there is the H session, which means Electricity, with 70% of the patents.Keywords: photovoltaic, urban residences, technology forecasting, prospecting
Procedia PDF Downloads 3042292 Blast Load Resistance of Bridge Columns
Authors: Amir Kavousifard, Lan Lin
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The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of the detailing in the seismic design of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns on the blast load resistance. A generic two-span continuous RC bridge located in Victoria, British Columbia, which represents the highest seismicity in Canada, was examined in the study. The bridge superstructure consists of a single cell box girder while the substructure consists of two circular columns. The bridge was designed according to the 2006 Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code. More specifically, response spectrum analysis was performed to determine the seismic demands using CSI Bridge. The 3D blast load analysis is carried out in the platform of LS-DYNA. Two charge heights, i.e., one at the mid-height of the column and the other at the bottom of the column, are considered. For each height, three cases are analyzed in order to investigate the effects of standoff and charge weight on the structural response. The blast load resistance of the column is assessed in terms of the concrete failure mechanism, steel stress distribution, and column lateral displacement. The results from the study indicate that a column designed in accordance with the code requirements could survive during the blast attack. Spiral columns perform much better than tied columns. The results also show that the charge weight has more impact on the structural response than the standoff. These results are beneficial for the development of the Canadian standards for the design of bridges under blast loads.Keywords: blast, bridge, charge, height, seismic, standoff
Procedia PDF Downloads 282291 Comparison between Deterministic and Probabilistic Stability Analysis, Featuring Consequent Risk Assessment
Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz
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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management.Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability
Procedia PDF Downloads 3952290 Experimental Investigation of the Effect of Compression Ratio in a Direct Injection Diesel Engine Running on Different Blends of Rice Bran Oil and Ethanol
Authors: Perminderjit Singh, Randeep Singh
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The performance, emission and combustion characteristics of a single cylinder four stroke variable compression ratio multifuel engine when fueled with different blends of rice bran oil methyl ester and ethanol are investigated and compared with the results of standard diesel. Biodiesel produced from rice bran oil by transesterification process has been used in this study. The experiment has been conducted at a fixed engine speed of 1500 rpm, 50% load and at compression ratios of 16.5:1, 17:1, 17.5:1 and 18:1. The impact of compression ratio on fuel consumption, brake thermal efficiency and exhaust gas emissions has been investigated and presented. Optimum compression ratio which gives the best performance has been identified. The results indicate longer ignition delay, the maximum rate of pressure rise, lower heat release rate and higher mass fraction burnt at higher compression ratio for waste cooking oil methyl ester when compared to that of diesel. The brake thermal efficiency at 50% load for rice bran oil methyl ester blends and diesel has been calculated and the blend B40 is found to give maximum thermal efficiency. The blends when used as fuel results in the reduction of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon and increase in nitrogen oxides emissions.Keywords: biodiesel, rice bran oil, transesterification, ethanol, compression ratio
Procedia PDF Downloads 4312289 Environmental Impact Assessment of Conventional Tyre Manufacturing Process
Authors: G. S. Dangayach, Gaurav Gaurav, Alok Bihari Singh
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The popularity of vehicles in both industrialized and developing economies led to a rise in the production of tyres. People have become increasingly concerned about the tyre industry's possible environmental impact in the last two decades. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to assess the environmental impacts of industrial tyres throughout their life cycle, which included four stages: manufacture, transportation, consumption, and end-of-life. The majority of prior studies focused on tyre recycling and disposal. Only a few studies have been conducted on the environmental impact of tyre production process. LCA methodology was employed to determine the environmental impact of tyre manufacture process (gate to gate) at an Indian firm. Comparative analysis was also conducted to identify the environmental hotspots in various stages of tire manufacturing. This study is limited to gate-to-gate analysis of manufacturing processes with the functional unit of a single tyre weighing 50 kg. GaBi software was used to do both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Different environmental impact indicators are measured in terms of CO2, SO2, NOx, GWP (global warming potential), AP (acidification potential), EP (eutrophication potential), POCP (photochemical oxidant formation potential), and HTP (toxic human potential). The results demonstrate that the major contributor to environmental pollution is electricity. The Banbury process has a very high negative environmental impact, which causes respiratory problems to workers and operators.Keywords: life cycle assessment (LCA), environmental impact indicators, tyre manufacturing process, environmental impact assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1572288 An Ensemble Learning Method for Applying Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms to Systems Engineering Problems
Authors: Ken Hampshire, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani
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As a subset of metaheuristics, nature-inspired optimization algorithms such as particle swarm optimization (PSO) have shown promise both in solving intractable problems and in their extensibility to novel problem formulations due to their general approach requiring few assumptions. Unfortunately, single instantiations of algorithms require detailed tuning of parameters and cannot be proven to be best suited to a particular illustrative problem on account of the “no free lunch” (NFL) theorem. Using these algorithms in real-world problems requires exquisite knowledge of the many techniques and is not conducive to reconciling the various approaches to given classes of problems. This research aims to present a unified view of PSO-based approaches from the perspective of relevant systems engineering problems, with the express purpose of then eliciting the best solution for any problem formulation in an ensemble learning bucket of models approach. The central hypothesis of the research is that extending the PSO algorithms found in the literature to real-world optimization problems requires a general ensemble-based method for all problem formulations but a specific implementation and solution for any instance. The main results are a problem-based literature survey and a general method to find more globally optimal solutions for any systems engineering optimization problem.Keywords: particle swarm optimization, nature-inspired optimization, metaheuristics, systems engineering, ensemble learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 1052287 Investigation of Night Cooling Event, Experimental Radiator
Authors: Fatemeh Karampour
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In the hot climate countries, especially those countries with great desert area, such as Iran, a considerable part of the energy is consumed due to cooling and air conditioning system in a hot season. So it is important to find a renewable energy supply for cooling systems. Although, there are few consistent researches in this field of renewable energy in compare with other fields. This research is presenting a study on performance of a night cooling radiator and working fluid storage for night time operation and day time resting periods. In these experiments, we didn’t expose any heating load but focused only on the possibility of system combination and its potential cooling effect. A very simple radiator has been designed in south of Iran, Shiraz, in order to perform this study. The radiator has been insulated with polystyrene foam and bubbled plastic sheets have been used as top cover. Using a single bubbled plastic sheet, the radiator temperature reached 0°C which is 20°C lower than minimum ambient temperature. Putting a small storage tank in the line increased the radiator’s minimum temperature at night; however, provided some cool fluid source for hot days of Shiraz that easily reaches 40°C. The results have shown very good cooling potential without heating load and acceptable temperature increasing during hot day with a small, short term storage tank. Future studies can make the system more effective and applicable.Keywords: night cooling, experimental set up, cooling radiator, chill storage
Procedia PDF Downloads 1562286 Influence of Loading Pattern and Shaft Rigidity on Laterally Loaded Helical Piles in Cohesion-Less Soil
Authors: Mohamed Hesham Hamdy Abdelmohsen, Ahmed Shawky Abdul Aziz, Mona Fawzy Al-Daghma
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Helical piles are widely used as axially and laterally loaded deep foundations. Once they are required to resist bearing combined loads (BCLs), as axial compression and lateral thrust, different behaviour is expected, necessitating further investigation. The objective of the present article is to clarify the behaviour of a single helical pile of different shaft rigidity embedded in cohesion-less soil and subjected to simultaneous or successive loading patterns of BCLs. The study was first developed analytically and extended numerically. The numerical analysis was further verified through a laboratory experimental program on a set of helical pile models. The results indicate highly interactive effects of the studied parameters, but it is obviously confirmed that the pile performance increases with both the increase of shaft rigidity and the change of BCLs loading pattern from simultaneous to successive. However, it is noted that the increase of vertical load does not always enhance the lateral capacity but may cause a decrement in lateral capacity, as observed with helical piles of flexible shafts. This study provides insightful information for the design of helical piles in structures loaded by complex sequence of forces, wind turbines, and industrial shafts.Keywords: helical pile, lateral loads, combined loads, cohesion-less soil, analytical, numerical
Procedia PDF Downloads 722285 3D Hybrid Multiphysics Lattice Boltzmann Model for Studying the Flow Behavior of Emulsions in Structured Rectangular Microchannels
Authors: Luma Al-Tamimi, Hassan Farhat, Wessam Hasan
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A three-dimensional (3D) hybrid quasi-steady thermal lattice Boltzmann model is developed to couple the effects of surfactant, temperature, interfacial tension, and contact angle. This 3D model is an extended scheme of a previously introduced two-dimensional (2D) hybrid lattice Boltzmann model. The 3D model is used to study the combined multi-physics effects on emulsion systems flowing in rectangular microchannels with and without confinements, where the suspended phase is made of droplets, plugs, or a mixture of both. The simulation results show that emulsion systems with plugs as the suspended phase are more efficient than with droplets, whereas mixed systems that form large plugs through coalescence have even greater efficiency. The 3D contact angle model generates matching results to those of the 2D model, which were validated with experiments. Furthermore, the effects of various confinements on adhering single drop systems are investigated for delineating their influence on the power required for transporting the suspended phase through the channel. It is shown that the deeper the constriction is, the lower the system efficiency. Increasing the surfactant concentration or fluid temperature in a channel with confinement carries a substantial positive effect on oil droplet transportation.Keywords: lattice Boltzmann method, thermal, contact angle, surfactants, high viscosity ratio, porous media
Procedia PDF Downloads 1822284 Viability of Rice Husk Ash Concrete Brick/Block from Green Electricity in Bangladesh
Authors: Mohammad A. N. M. Shafiqul Karim
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As a developing country, Bangladesh has to face numerous challenges. Self Independence in electricity, contributing to climate change by reducing carbon emission and bringing the backward population of society to the mainstream is more challenging for them. Therefore, it is essential to ensure recycled use of local products to the maximum level in every sector. Some private organizations have already worked alongside government to bring the backward population to the mainstream by developing their financial capacities. As rice husk is the largest single category of the total energy supply in Bangladesh. As part of this strategy, rice husk can play a great as a promising renewable energy source, which is readily available, has considerable environmental benefits and can produce electricity and ensure multiple uses of byproducts in construction technology. For the first time in Bangladesh, an experimental multidimensional project depending on Rice Husk Electricity and Rice Husk Ash (RHA) concrete brick/block under Green Eco-Tech Limited has already been started. Project analysis, opportunity, sustainability, the high monitoring component, limitations and finally evaluated data reflecting the viability of establishing more projects using rice husk are discussed in this paper. The by-product of rice husk from the production of green electricity, RHA, can be used for making, in particular, RHA concrete brick/block in Bangladeshi aspects is also discussed here.Keywords: project analysis, rice husk, rice husk ash concrete brick/block, compressive strength of rice husk ash concrete brick/block
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