Search results for: sample average approximation

Authors: Dagaci Aliyu Manbe, Anthony Abah Ebonyi

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The increase in global temperatures is worsened by frequent natural events and human activities. Climate change has taken a prominent space in the global discourse on crime and criminality. Compared to when the subject centred around the discussion on the depletion of the ozone layer and global warming, today, the narrative revolves around the implications of changes in weather and climatic conditions in relations to violent crimes or conflict that traverse vast social, economic, and political spaces in different countries. Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures in the Earth’s near-surface air and oceans, which occurs due to human activities such as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuel such as gas flaring. The trend is projected to continue, if unchecked. This paper seeks to explore the nexus between climate change and criminality in Nigeria. It further examines the main ecological changes that predispose conflict dynamics of security threats factored by climate change to peaceful co-existence in Nigeria. It concludes with some recommendations on the way forward.

Keywords: conflict, climate change, criminality, global warning, peace

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Authors: Noha Seddik, Sherine Youssef, Mohamed Kholeif

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The automated epileptic seizure detection research field has emerged in the recent years; this involves analyzing the Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals instead of the traditional visual inspection performed by expert neurologists. In this study, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) that uses Weighted Permutation Entropy (WPE) as the input feature is proposed for classifying normal and seizure EEG records. WPE is a modified statistical parameter of the permutation entropy (PE) that measures the complexity and irregularity of a time series. It incorporates both the mapped ordinal pattern of the time series and the information contained in the amplitude of its sample points. The proposed system utilizes the fact that entropy based measures for the EEG segments during epileptic seizure are lower than in normal EEG.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), epileptic seizure detection, weighted permutation entropy (WPE), support vector machine (SVM)

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Authors: Yu-Chun Lin

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This study examines whether the adoption of clawback provisions increases the demand for audit service. We use abnormal audit fees to proxy for the demand for audit service. Because firms’ voluntary adoption of the clawback provisions is endogenously determined, this study controls for this bias using the propensity-score matching technique. Based on 1,247 U.S. firms that voluntarily adopt clawback provisions during 2003-2013 and a matched sample, the empirical results show that clawback provisions adoption is associated with abnormal audit fees, especially by firms with higher likelihood of misstatements. When firm executives are overconfident, abnormal audit fees increase subsequent to clawback provisions adoption. Since regulators require listed firms to adopt recoupment policy after 2015 in U.S., the evidence about higher demand for audit service might provide political implications for mandatory clawback provisions.

Keywords: clawback provisions, audit service, audit fees, overconfidence

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Authors: Lali Kalanadzde

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We investigated magneto-optical Kerr effect in transparent region of implanted ferrite-garnet films for the (YBiCa)3(FeGe)5O12. The implantation process was carried out at room temperature by Ne+ ions with energy of 100 KeV and with various doses (0.5-2.5) 1014 ion/cm². We discovered that slight deviation of the plane of external alternating magnetic field from plane of sample leads to appearance intensive magneto-optical maximum in transparent region of garnet films ħω=0.5-2.0 eV. In the proceeding, we have also found that the deviation of polarization plane from P- component of incident light leads to the appearance of the similar magneto-optical effects in this region. The research of magnetization processes in transparent region of garnet films showed that the formation of magneto-optical effects in region ħω⁼0.5-2.3 eV has a rather complex character.

Keywords: ferrite-garnet films, ion implantation, magneto-optical, thin films

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Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

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Considering the energetic crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes more and more necessary to change the energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energetic communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next ten years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series

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Authors: Alinka Molnár-Tóth, Tímea Tánczos, Regina Barna, Katalin Jakab, Péter Klivényi

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Supported by neuroscientific findings, the so-called Hub-and-Spoke model of the human semantic system is based on two subcomponents of semantic cognition, namely the semantic control process and semantic representation. Our semantic knowledge is multimodal in nature, as the knowledge system stored in relation to a conception is extensive and broad, while different aspects of the conception may be relevant depending on the purpose. The motivation of our research is to develop a new diagnostic measurement procedure based on the preservation of semantic representation, which is appropriate to the specificities of the Hungarian language and which can be used to compare the non-verbal semantic knowledge of healthy and aphasic persons. The development of the test will broaden the Hungarian clinical diagnostic toolkit, which will allow for more specific therapy planning. The sample of healthy persons (n=480) was determined by the last census data for the representativeness of the sample. Based on the concept of the Pyramids and Palm Tree Test, and according to the characteristics of the Hungarian language, we have elaborated a test based on different types of semantic information, in which the subjects are presented with three pictures: they have to choose the one that best fits the target word above from the two lower options, based on the semantic relation defined. We have measured 5 types of semantic knowledge representations: associative relations, taxonomy, motional representations, concrete as well as abstract verbs. As the first step in our data analysis, we examined the normal distribution of our results, and since it was not normally distributed (p < 0.05), we used nonparametric statistics further into the analysis. Using descriptive statistics, we could determine the frequency of the correct and incorrect responses, and with this knowledge, we could later adjust and remove the items of questionable reliability. The reliability was tested using Cronbach’s α, and it can be safely said that all the results were in an acceptable range of reliability (α = 0.6-0.8). We then tested for the potential gender differences using the Mann Whitney-U test, however, we found no difference between the two (p < 0.05). Likewise, we didn’t see that the age had any effect on the results using one-way ANOVA (p < 0.05), however, the level of education did influence the results (p > 0.05). The relationships between the subtests were observed by the nonparametric Spearman’s rho correlation matrix, showing statistically significant correlation between the subtests (p > 0.05), signifying a linear relationship between the measured semantic functions. A margin of error of 5% was used in all cases. The research will contribute to the expansion of the clinical diagnostic toolkit and will be relevant for the individualised therapeutic design of treatment procedures. The use of a non-verbal test procedure will allow an early assessment of the most severe language conditions, which is a priority in the differential diagnosis. The measurement of reaction time is expected to advance prodrome research, as the tests can be easily conducted in the subclinical phase.

Keywords: communication disorders, diagnostic toolkit, neurorehabilitation, semantic knowlegde

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Authors: Beste Ozcan, Valerio Sperati, Laura Romano, Tania Moretta, Simone Scaffaro, Noemi Faedda, Federica Giovannone, Carla Sogos, Vincenzo Guidetti, Gianluca Baldassarre

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+me is an experimental interactive toy with the appearance of a soft, pillow-like, panda. Shape and consistency are designed to arise emotional attachment in young children: a child can wear it around his/her neck and treat it as a companion (i.e. a transitional object). When caressed on paws or head, the panda emits appealing, interesting outputs like colored lights or amusing sounds, thanks to embedded electronics. Such sensory patterns can be modified through a wirelessly connected tablet: by this, an adult caregiver can adapt +me responses to a child's reactions or requests, for example, changing the light hue or the type of sound. The toy control is therefore shared, as it depends on both the child (who handles the panda) and the adult (who manages the tablet and mediates the sensory input-output contingencies). These features make +me a potential tool for therapy with children with Neurodevelopmental Disorders (ND), characterized by impairments in the social area, like Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) and Language Disorders (LD): as a proposal, the toy could be used together with a therapist, in rehabilitative play activities aimed at encouraging simple social interactions and reinforcing basic relational and communication skills. +me was tested in two pilot experiments, the first one involving 15 Typically Developed (TD) children aged in 8-34 months, the second one involving 7 children with ASD, and 7 with LD, aged in 30-48 months. In both studies a researcher/caregiver, during a one-to-one, ten-minute activity plays with the panda and encourages the child to do the same. The purpose of both studies was to ascertain the general acceptability of the device as an interesting toy that is an object able to capture the child's attention and to maintain a high motivation to interact with it and with the adult. Behavioral indexes for estimating the interplay between the child, +me and caregiver were rated from the video recording of the experimental sessions. Preliminary results show how -on average- participants from 3 groups exhibit a good engagement: they touch, caress, explore the panda and show enjoyment when they manage to trigger luminous and sound responses. During the experiments, children tend to imitate the caregiver's actions on +me, often looking (and smiling) at him/her. Interesting behavioral differences between TD, ASD, and LD groups are scored: for example, ASD participants produce a fewer number of smiles both to panda and to a caregiver with respect to TD group, while LD scores stand between ASD and TD subjects. These preliminary observations suggest that the interactive toy +me is able to raise and maintain the interest of toddlers and therefore it can be reasonably used as a supporting tool during therapy, to stimulate pivotal social skills as imitation, turn-taking, eye contact, and social smiles. Interestingly, the young age of participants, along with the behavioral differences between groups, seem to suggest a further potential use of the device: a tool for early differential diagnosis (the average age of a child

Keywords: autism spectrum disorders, interactive toy, social interaction, therapy, transitional wearable companion

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Authors: Alireza Vakili, Shahab Ehtesham, Mohsen Danesh Mesgaran

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The objective of this study was use different levels of spent mushroom substrate as a suitable substitute for wheat straw in the ration of male lambs. In this study 20 male lambs with the age of 90 days and initial average weight of 33± 1.7 kg were used. The animals were divided separately into single boxes with four treatments (control treatment, spent mushroom substrate 15%, spent mushroom substrate 25% and spent mushroom substrate 35%) and five replications. The experiment period was 114 days being 14 days adaptation and 90 days for breeding. On the days 36 and 94, blood samples were taken from the jugular vein. In order to carry out the trial, 20 male lambs received the four experimental diets in completely randomized design. The statistical analyses were carried out by using the GLM procedure of SAS 9.1. Means among treatments were compared by Tukey test. The results of the study showed that there was no significant differences between the serum biochemical and hematological contents of the lambs in the four treatments (p>0.05). It was concluded that spent mushroom substrate consumption has no harmful effect on the blood parameters of Kurdish male lambs.

Keywords: alternative food, nutrition, sheep performance, spent mushroom substrate

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Authors: Somchai Buaroong

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This research attempted to study information system success in dimensions of the user satisfaction level and to find the association between the independent factors of the user experiences, user knowledge, and user attitude. The study sample was selected using simple random sampling that comprised of 190 users who had used the Bangkok HIS. The data were reported from 165 questionnaires. The results found that the user satisfaction was at a moderate level, user satisfaction on the information quality and system quality was at a moderate level, while satisfaction on service quality was at a high level. The computer knowledge of the user was at a moderate level, and the user attitude was at a positive level. The participation of the user was at a low level and the participation in decision and in evaluation was at a low level; however participation in implementation and in benefit was at a moderate.

Keywords: information system success, hospital information system, user attitude, user satisfaction

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Authors: Ali Reza Tahavvor, Saeed Hosseini, Afshin Karimzadeh Fard

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In this paper the effect of wall waviness of side walls in a two-dimensional wavy enclosure is numerically investigated. Two vertical wavy walls and straight top wall are kept isothermal and the bottom wall temperature is higher and spatially varying with cosinusoidal temperature distribution. A computational code based on Finite-volume approach is used to solve governing equations and SIMPLE method is used for pressure velocity coupling. Test is performed for several different numbers of undulations. The Prandtl number was kept constant and the Ra number denotes that the flow is laminar. Temperature and velocity fields are determined. Therefore, according to the obtained results a correlation is proposed for average Nusselt number as a function of number of side wall waves. The results indicate that the Nusselt number is highly affected by number of waves and increasing it decreases the wavy walls Nusselt number; although the Nusselt number is not highly affected by surface waviness when the number of undulations is below one.

Keywords: cavity, natural convection, Nusselt number, wavy wall

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Authors: V. Vsevolozhskaia

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Since 1990, energy-efficient development concepts have constituted both a turning point in civil engineering and a challenge for an environmentally friendly future. Energy and water currently play an essential role in the sustainable economic growth of the world in general and Russia in particular: the efficiency of the water supply system is the second most important parameter for energy consumption according to the British assessment method, while the water-energy nexus has been identified as a focus for accelerating sustainable growth and developing effective, innovative solutions. The activities considered in this study were aimed at organizing and executing the renovation of the property in residential buildings located in St. Petersburg, specifically buildings with local or federal historical heritage status under the control of the St. Petersburg Committee for the State Inspection and Protection of Historic and Cultural Monuments (KGIOP) and UNESCO. Even after reconstruction, these buildings still fall into energy efficiency class D. Russian Government Resolution No. 87 on the structure and required content of project documentation contains a section entitled ‘Measures to ensure compliance with energy efficiency and equipment requirements for buildings, structures, and constructions with energy metering devices’. Mention is made of the need to install collectors and meters, which only calculate energy, neglecting the main purpose: to make buildings more energy-efficient, potentially even energy efficiency class A. The least-explored aspects of energy-efficient technology in the Russian Federation remain the water balance and the possibility of implementing rain and meltwater collection systems. These modern technologies are used exclusively for new buildings due to a lack of government directive to create project documentation during the planning of major renovations and reconstruction that would include the collection and reuse of rainwater. Energy-efficient technology for rain and meltwater collection is currently applied only to new buildings, even though research has proved that using rainwater is safe and offers a huge step forward in terms of eco-efficiency analysis and water innovation. Where conservation is mandatory, making changes to protected sites is prohibited. In most cases, the protected site is the cultural heritage building itself, including the main walls and roof. However, the installation of a second water supply system and collection of rainwater would not affect the protected building itself. Water efficiency in St. Petersburg is currently considered only from the point of view of the installation that regulates the flow of the pipeline shutoff valves. The development of technical guidelines for the use of grey- and/or rainwater to meet the needs of residential buildings during reconstruction or renovation is not yet complete. The ideas for water treatment, collection and distribution systems presented in this study should be taken into consideration during the reconstruction or renovation of residential cultural heritage buildings under the protection of KGIOP and UNESCO. The methodology applied also has the potential to be extended to other cultural heritage sites in northern countries and lands with an average annual rainfall of over 600 mm to cover average toilet-flush needs.

Keywords: cultural heritage, energy efficiency, renovation, rainwater collection, reconstruction, water management, water supply

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Authors: M. Shopska, D. Paneva, G. Kadinov, Z. Cherkezova-Zheleva, I. Mitov

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The iron containing materials are used as catalysts in different processes. The chemical methods of their synthesis use toxic and expensive chemicals; sophisticated devices; energy consumption processes that raise their cost. Besides, dangerous waste products are formed. At present time such syntheses are out of date and wasteless technologies are indispensable. The bioinspired technologies are consistent with the ecological requirements. Different microorganisms participate in the biomineralization of the iron and some phytochemicals are involved, too. The methods for biogenic production of iron containing materials are clean, simple, nontoxic, realized at ambient temperature and pressure, cheaper. The biogenic iron materials embrace different iron compounds. Due to their origin these substances are nanosized, amorphous or poorly crystalline, porous and have number of useful properties like SPM, high magnetism, low toxicity, biocompatibility, absorption of microwaves, high surface area/volume ratio, active sites on the surface with unusual coordination that distinguish them from the bulk materials. The biogenic iron materials are applied in the heterogeneous catalysis in different roles - precursor, active component, support, immobilizer. The application of biogenic iron oxide materials gives rise to increased catalytic activity in comparison with those of abiotic origin. In our study we investigated the catalytic behavior of biomasses obtained by cultivation of Leptothrix bacteria in three nutrition media – Adler, Fedorov, and Lieske. The biomass composition was studied by Moessbauer spectroscopy and transmission IRS. Catalytic experiments on CO oxidation were carried out using in situ DRIFTS. Our results showed that: i) the used biomasses contain α-FeOOH, γ-FeOOH, γ-Fe2O3 in different ratios; ii) the biomass formed in Adler medium contains γ-FeOOH as main phase. The CO conversion was about 50% as evaluated by decreased integrated band intensity in the gas mixture spectra during the reaction. The main phase in the spent sample is γ-Fe2O3; iii) the biomass formed in Lieske medium contains α-FeOOH. The CO conversion was about 20%. The main phase in the spent sample is α-Fe2O3; iv) the biomass formed in Fedorov medium contains γ-Fe2O3 as main phase. CO conversion in the test reaction was about 19%. The results showed that the catalytic activity up to 200°C resulted predominantly from α-FeOOH and γ-FeOOH. The catalytic activity at temperatures higher than 200°C was due to the formation of γ-Fe2O3. The oxyhydroxides, which are the principal compounds in the biomass, have low catalytic activity in the used reaction; the maghemite has relatively good catalytic activity; the hematite has activity commensurate with that of the oxyhydroxides. Moreover it can be affirmed that catalytic activity is inherent in maghemite, which is obtained by transformation of the biogenic lepidocrocite, i.e. it has biogenic precursor.

Keywords: nanosized biogenic iron compounds, catalytic behavior in reaction of CO oxidation, in situ DRIFTS, Moessbauer spectroscopy

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Authors: Seyed Ata Khalkhkali Sharifi, Gholamhossein Majzoubi, Farhad Abroush

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Developing mechanical properties of pure titanium has been reviewed in this paper by using ECAP process. At the first step of this article, the experimental samples were prepared as mentioned in the standards. Then pure grade 2 Ti was processed via equal-channel angular pressing (ECAp) for 2 passes following route-A at 400°C. After processing, the microstructural evolution, tensile, fatigue, hardness properties and wear behavior were investigated. Finally, the effect of ECAP process on these samples was analyzed. The results showed improvement in strength values with a slight decrease in ductility. The analysis on 30 points within the sample showed hardness increase in each pass. Also, it was concluded that fatigue properties were increased too.

Keywords: equal-channel angular pressing, titanium, mechanical behavior, engineering materials and applications

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Sufyan Al-Mrayat

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This study examined the contribution of thirty-six factors to building construction project’s cost overrun in Jordan. A questionnaire was distributed to a random sample of 350 stakeholders comprised of owners, consultants, and contractors, of which 285 responded. SPSS analysis was conducted to identify the top five causes of cost overrun, which were a large number of variation orders, inadequate quantities provided in the contract, misunderstanding of the project plan, incomplete bid documents, and choosing the lowest price in the contract bidding. There was an agreement among the study participants in ranking the factors contributing to cost overrun, which indicated that these factors were very commonly encountered in most construction projects in Jordan. Thus, it is crucial to enhance the collaboration among the different project stakeholders to understand the project’s objectives and set a realistic plan that takes into consideration all the factors that might influence the project cost, which might eventually prevent cost overrun.

Keywords: cost, overrun, building construction projects, Jordan

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Authors: M. A. Alavianmehr, A. Tashk, A. Sodagaran

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Modeling background and moving objects are significant techniques for video surveillance and other video processing applications. This paper presents a foreground detection algorithm that is robust against illumination changes and noise based on adaptive mixture Gaussian model (GMM), and provides a novel and practical choice for intelligent video surveillance systems using static cameras. In the previous methods, the image of still objects (background image) is not significant. On the contrary, this method is based on forming a meticulous background image and exploiting it for separating moving objects from their background. The background image is specified either manually, by taking an image without vehicles, or is detected in real-time by forming a mathematical or exponential average of successive images. The proposed scheme can offer low image degradation. The simulation results demonstrate high degree of performance for the proposed method.

Keywords: image processing, background models, video surveillance, foreground detection, Gaussian mixture model

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Authors: Vrushali Guhe, Shailza Singh

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Cutaneous leishmaniasis is neglected tropical disease present worldwide caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania major, the therapeutic armamentarium for leishmaniasis are showing several limitations as drugs are showing toxic effects with increasing resistance by a parasite. Thus identification of novel therapeutic targets is of paramount importance. Previous studies have shown that autophagy, a cellular process, can either facilitate infection or aid in the elimination of the parasite, depending on the specific parasite species and host background in leishmaniasis. In the present study, our objective was to target the essential autophagy protein ATG8, which plays a crucial role in the survival, infection dynamics, and differentiation of the Leishmania parasite. ATG8 in Leishmania major and its homologue, LC3, in Homo sapiens, act as autophagic markers. Present study manifested the crucial role of ATG8 protein as a potential target for combating Leishmania major infection. Through bioinformatics analysis, we identified non-conserved motifs within the ATG8 protein of Leishmania major, which are not present in LC3 of Homo sapiens. Against these two non-conserved motifs, we generated a peptide library of 60 peptides on the basis of physicochemical properties. These peptides underwent a filtering process based on various parameters, including feasibility of synthesis and purification, compatibility with Selective Reaction Monitoring (SRM)/Multiple reaction monitoring (MRM), hydrophobicity, hydropathy index, average molecular weight (Mw average), monoisotopic molecular weight (Mw monoisotopic), theoretical isoelectric point (pI), and half-life. Further filtering criterion shortlisted three peptides by using molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulations. The direct interaction between ATG8 and the shortlisted peptides was confirmed through Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) experiments. Notably, these peptides exhibited the remarkable ability to penetrate the parasite membrane and exert profound effects on Leishmania major. The treatment with these peptides significantly impacted parasite survival, leading to alterations in the cell cycle and morphology. Furthermore, the peptides were found to modulate autophagosome formation, particularly under starved conditions, suggesting their involvement in disrupting the regulation of autophagy within Leishmania major. In vitro, studies demonstrated that the selected peptides effectively reduced the parasite load within infected host cells. Encouragingly, these findings were corroborated by in vivo experiments, which showed a reduction in parasite burden upon peptide administration. Additionally, the peptides were observed to affect the levels of LC3II within host cells. In conclusion, our findings highlight the efficacy of these novel peptides in targeting Leishmania major’s ATG8 and disrupting parasite survival. These results provide valuable insights into the development of innovative therapeutic strategies against leishmaniasis via targeting autophagy protein ATG8 of Leishmania major.

Keywords: ATG8, leishmaniasis, surface plasmon resonance, MD simulation, molecular docking, peptide designing, therapeutics

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Authors: M. Kozłowski, M. Kadela

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Foamed concrete is known for its low self-weight and excellent thermal and acoustic properties. For many years, it has been used worldwide for insulation to foundations and roof tiles, as backfill to retaining walls, sound insulation, etc. However, in the last years it has become a promising material also for structural purposes e.g. for stabilization of weak soils. Due to favorable properties of foamed concrete, many interests and studies were involved to analyze its strength, mechanical, thermal and acoustic properties. However, these studies do not cover the investigation of fracture energy which is the core factor governing the damage and fracture mechanisms. Only limited number of publications can be found in literature. The paper presents the results of experimental investigation and numerical campaign of foamed concrete based on three-point bending test of beams with initial notch. First part of the paper presents the results of a series of static loading tests performed to investigate the fracture properties of foamed concrete of varying density. Beam specimens with dimensions of 100×100×840 mm with a central notch were tested in three-point bending. Subsequently, remaining halves of the specimens with dimensions of 100×100×420 mm were tested again as un-notched beams in the same set-up with reduced distance between supports. The tests were performed in a hydraulic displacement controlled testing machine with a load capacity of 5 kN. Apart from measuring the loading and mid-span displacement, a crack mouth opening displacement (CMOD) was monitored. Based on the load – displacement curves of notched beams the values of fracture energy and tensile stress at failure were calculated. The flexural tensile strength was obtained on un-notched beams with dimensions of 100×100×420 mm. Moreover, cube specimens 150×150×150 mm were tested in compression to determine the compressive strength. Second part of the paper deals with numerical investigation of the fracture behavior of beams with initial notch presented in the first part of the paper. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was used to simulate and analyze the damage and fracture process. The influence of meshing and variation of mechanical properties on results was investigated. Numerical models simulate correctly the behavior of beams observed during three-point bending. The numerical results show that XFEM can be used to simulate different fracture toughness of foamed concrete and fracture types. Using the XFEM and computer simulation technology allow for reliable approximation of load–bearing capacity and damage mechanisms of beams made of foamed concrete, which provides some foundations for realistic structural applications.

Keywords: foamed concrete, fracture energy, three-point bending, XFEM

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

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Authors: K. Hardy, A. Maurushat

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Policy makers are increasingly looking to make evidence-based decisions. Evidence-based decisions have historically used rigorous methodologies of empirical studies by research institutes, as well as less reliable immediate survey/polls often with limited sample sizes. As we move into the era of Big Data analytics, policy makers are looking to different methodologies to deliver reliable empirics in real-time. The question is not why did these people do this for the last 10 years, but why are these people doing this now, and if the this is undesirable, and how can we have an impact to promote change immediately. Big data analytics rely heavily on government data that has been released in to the public domain. The open data movement promises greater productivity and more efficient delivery of services; however, Australian government agencies remain reluctant to release their data to the general public. This paper considers the barriers to releasing government data as open data, and how these barriers might be overcome.

Keywords: big data, open data, productivity, data governance

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Authors: Dawood Aghamohammadi, Mahmoud Eidi, Alireza Pishgahi, Azam Esmaeilnejad

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Adenosine has an analgesic and anti-inflammatory role and its injections are used for peri-operative pain management. We want to study efficacy of intrathecal injection of adenosine for post operative radicular pain after lumbar discectomy. 40 patients with unilevel lumbar discectomy who had radicular lower limb pain were treated by 1000 micrograms of intrathecal injection of adenosine. Pain severity, pain killer consumption per day and sleep quality were assessed during a 3 months follow up period. Radicular pain severity was significantly reduced in 3 month follow-up period in comparison to the baseline (F=19760, DF=2.53, p-value<0.001). Further painkiller medication consumption rate in average during 3 month follow-up period after injection was significantly lower in comparison to baseline (F= 19.244, df= 1.98, p-value<0.001). This study suggests that intrathecal injection of adenosine is a safe method in order to reduce postoperative pain after lumbar discectomy.

Keywords: adenosine, intrathecal injection, discectomy, neuropathic pain

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Authors: Vera Jancurova

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The financial theory is dominated by the believe that weekday effect has disappeared from current markets. The purpose of this article is to study anomalies, especially weekday effect, at real markets that disrupt the efficiency of financial markets. The research is based on the analyses of historical daily exchange rates of significant world indices to determine the presence of weekday effects on financial markets. The methodology used for the study is based on the analyzes of daily averages of particular indexes for different time periods. Average daily gains were analyzed for their whole time interval and then for particular five and ten years periods with the aim to detect the presence on current financial markets. The results confirm the presence of weekday effect at the most significant indices - for example: Nasdaq, S & P 500, FTSE 100 and the Hang Seng. It was confirmed that in the last ten years, the weekend effect disappeared from financial markets. However in last year’s the indicators show that weekday effect is coming back. The study shows that weekday effect has to be taken into consideration on financial markets, especially in the past years.

Keywords: indices, anomalies, behavioral finance, weekday effect

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Authors: Abolfazl Bezaatpour, Sahar Khatami

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Fe3O4 nanoparticles were prepared by the co-precipitation method and silica was then coated on the magnetic nanoparticles followed by modification with (3-aminopropyl) trimethoxysilane. Then, dioxomolybdenum(VI) Schiff base complex of N,N′-bis(5-chloromethyl-salicylidine)-1,2-phenylenediamine) was immobilized on the surface of magnetic nanoparticles as a heterogeneous catalyst. The catalyst was identified by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM), X-ray diffraction, IR spectroscopy, diffuse reflectance spectra and atomic absorption spectroscopy techniques. The catalyst shows excellent catalytic activity in epoxidation of olefins using tert-butylhydroperoxide in 1,2-dichloroethane. In this report, the supported complex exhibited 100% selectivity for epoxidation with 100% conversion for cyclooctene. Nanocatalyst can be easily recovered by a magnetic field and reused for subsequent reactions for at least 5 times with less deterioration in catalytic activity.

Keywords: dioxomolybdenum (VI), epoxidation, nanocatalysis, nanoparticles, Schiff base

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Authors: Hasan Farahneh, Xavier Fernando

Abstract:

Leaky Feeder (LF) has been a proven technology for many decades and its promises broadband wireless access in short range but being overlooked until now. The LF is a natural MIMO transceiver ideal for micro and pico cells. In this work, the LF is considered as a linear antenna array MultiInput-Single-Output (MISO) and derive the average bit error rate (BER) in Rayleigh fading channel considering ideal and independent paths (iid) which consider there is no correlation and mutual coupling between transmit antennas (slots) or receiver antenna considering QPSK modulation with imperfect phase estimation. We consider maximal ratio transmission (MRT) at the transmit end and maximal ratio combining (MRC) at the receiving end. Analytical expressions are derived for the BER with radiating cable transmitters. The effects of slot spacing and carrier frequency on the BER are also studied. Numerical evaluations show the radiating cable transmitter offer much lower BER than a single antenna transmitter with same SNR.

Keywords: leaky feeder, BER, QPSK, rayleigh fading, channel gain, phase mismatch

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Nidhi Gadura

Abstract:

To ensure student success in a non majors biology course, a flipped classroom pedagogical approach is developed and implemented. All students are assigned online lectures to listen to before they come to class. A three hour lecture is split into one hour of online component, one hour of in class lecture and one hour of worksheets done by students in the classroom. This deviation from a traditional 3 hour in class lecture has resulted in increased student interest in science as well as better understanding of difficult scientific concepts. A pre and post survey was given to measure the interest rates and grades were used to measure the success rates. While the overall grade average did not change dramatically, students reported a better appreciation of biology. Also, students overwhelmingly like the use of worksheets in class to help them understand the concepts. They liked the fact that they could listen to lectures at their own pace on line and even repeat if needed. The flipped classroom approach turned out to work really well our non science majors and the author is ready to implement this in other classrooms.

Keywords: flipped classroom, non science majors, pedagogy, technological pedagogical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Ebenezer Joseph

Abstract:

Chess is a useful tool to enhance general and specific cognitive functioning in children. The present study aims to assess the impact of chess on cognitive in children and to measure the differential impact of socio-demographic factors like age and gender of the child on the effectiveness of the chess intervention.This research study used an experimental design to study the impact of the Training in Chess on the intelligence of children. The Pre-test Post-test Control Group Design was utilized. The research design involved two groups of children: an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group consisted of children who participated in the one-year Chess Training Intervention, while the control group participated in extra-curricular activities in school. The main independent variable was training in chess. Other independent variables were gender and age of the child. The dependent variable was the cognitive functioning of the child (as measured by IQ, working memory index, processing speed index, perceptual reasoning index, verbal comprehension index, numerical reasoning, verbal reasoning, non-verbal reasoning, social intelligence, language, conceptual thinking, memory, visual motor and creativity). The sample consisted of 200 children studying in Government and Private schools. Random sampling was utilized. The sample included both boys and girls falling in the age range 6 to 16 years. The experimental group consisted of 100 children (50 from Government schools and 50 from Private schools) with an equal representation of boys and girls. The control group similarly consisted of 100 children. The dependent variables were assessed using Binet-Kamat Test of Intelligence, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children - IV (India) and Wallach Kogan Creativity Test. The training methodology comprised Winning Moves Chess Learning Program - Episodes 1–22, lectures with the demonstration board, on-the-board playing and training, chess exercise through workbooks (Chess school 1A, Chess school 2, and tactics) and working with chess software. Further students games were mapped using chess software and the brain patterns of the child were understood. They were taught the ideas behind chess openings and exposure to classical games were also given. The children participated in mock as well as regular tournaments. Preliminary analysis carried out using independent t tests with 50 children indicates that chess training has led to significant increases in the intelligent quotient. Children in the experimental group have shown significant increases in composite scores like working memory and perceptual reasoning. Chess training has significantly enhanced the total creativity scores, line drawing and pattern meaning subscale scores. Systematically learning chess as part of school activities appears to have a broad spectrum of positive outcomes.

Keywords: chess, intelligence, creativity, children

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Md. Musfiqur Rahman Bhuiya Nidalia Islam, Hossain Mohiuddin, Md. Kawser Bin Zaman

Abstract:

Dhaka North City Corporation introduced first area-based bus service on 10 August 2016 to run through Gulshan and Banani area to dilute sufferings of the people which started with the ban on movement of the bus in these areas after Holy Artisan terrorist attack. This study explores service quality performance of Dhaka Chaka on the basis of information provided by its riders on a questionnaire survey. Total thirteen service quality indicators have been ranked on a scale of 1-5, and they have been classified under three latent variables based on their correlation using eigenvalue and rotated factor matrix derived through factor analysis process. Mean, and skewness has been calculated for each indicator. It has been found that ticket price and ticketing system have relatively poor average service quality rank than other factors. All other factors have moderately good performance. The study also suggests some recommendation to improve service quality of Dhaka Chaka based on the interrelation between considered parameters.

Keywords: area based bus service, eigen value, factor analysis, correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Aliyu Bello Mohammed

Abstract:

Vital registration or registration of vital events is one of the three major sources of demographic data in Nigeria. The other two are the population census and sample survey. The former is judged to be an indispensable source of demographic data because, it provide information on vital statistics and population trends between two census periods. Various literacy works however depict the vital registration in Nigeria as incapable of providing accurate data for the country. The study has both theoretical and practical significances. The trends and pattern of vital registration has not received adequate research interest in Sub-Saharan Africa in general and Nigeria in particular. This has created a gap in understanding the extent and consequence of the scourge in Africa sub-region. Practically, the study also captures the policy interventions of government and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) that would help enlighten the public on the importance of vital registration in Nigeria. Furthermore, feasible policy strategies that will enhance trends and pattern vital registration in the society would emanate from the study. The study adopted a cross sectional survey design and applied multi stage sampling techniques to sample 230 respondents from the general public in the study area. The first stage involved the splitting of the local government into wards. The second stage involves selecting streets, while the third stage was the households. In all, 6 wards were sampled for the study. The study utilized both primary and secondary sources of data. The primary sources of data used were the questionnaire, focus group discussion (FGD) and in-depth interview (IDI) guides while the secondary sources of data were journals and books, newspapers and magazines. Twelve FGD sessions with 96 study participants and five IDI sessions with the heads of vital registration facilities were conducted. The quantitative data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Descriptive statistics like tables, frequencies and percentages were employed in presenting and interpreting the data. Information from the qualitative data was transcribed and ordered in themes to ensure that outstanding points of the responses are noted. The following conclusions were drawn from the study: the available vital registration facilities are not adequate and were not evenly distributed in the study area; lack of awareness and knowledge of the existence and the importance of vital registration by majority of the people in the local government; distance to vital registration centres from their residents; most births in the area were not registered, and even among the few births that were registered, majority of them were registered after the limited period for registration. And the study reveals that socio-economic index, educational level and distance of facilities to residents are determinants of access to vital registration facility. The study concludes by discussing the need for a reliable and accurate vital registration system if Nigeria’s vision of becoming one of the top 20 economies in the world in 2020 would be realized.

Keywords: trends, patterns, vital, registration and assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

Abstract:

This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: D. Ravinder

Abstract:

Nickel ferrites and Ni doped Lithium nano ferrites [Li0.5Fe0.5]1-xNixFe2O4 with x= 0.8 and 1.0 synthesized by citrate-gel auto combustion method. The broad peaks in the X-ray diffraction pattern (XRD) indicate a crystalline behavior of the prepared samples. Low temperature magnetization studies i,e Field Cooled (FC) and Zero Field Cooled (ZFC) magnetic studies of the investigated samples are measured by using vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM). The magnetization of the prepared samples as a function of an applied magnetic field 10 T was measured at two different temperatures 5 K and 310 K. Field Cooled (FC) and Zero Field Cooled (ZFC) magnetization measurements under an applied field of 100 Oe and 1000 Oe in the temperature range of 5–375 K were carried out.

Keywords: ferro-spinels, field cooled (FC), Zero Field Cooled (ZFC) and blocking temperature, superpara magnetism, drug delivery applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 537