Search results for: failure prediction

Authors: Mei Lin, Chang Liu

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Argumentative writing is the most prevalent genre in diverse writing tests. How to construct academic arguments is often regarded as a difficult task by most English as a foreign language (EFL) learners. A failure to generate enough ideas and organise them coherently and logically as well as a lack of competence in supporting their arguments with relevant evidence are frequent problems faced by EFL learners when approaching an English argumentative writing task. Overall, these problems are closely related to planning, and planning an argumentative writing at pre-writing stage plays a vital role in a good academic essay. However, how teachers can effectively guide students to generate ideas is rarely discussed in planning English argumentative writing, apart from brainstorming. Brainstorming has been a common practice used by teachers to help students generate ideas. However, some limitations of brainstorming suggest that it can help students generate many ideas, but ideas might not necessarily be coherent and logic, and could sometimes impede production. It calls for a need to explore effective instructional strategies at pre-writing stage of English argumentative writing. This paper will first examine how a Six Thinking Hats approach can be used to provide a dialogic space for EFL learners to experience and collaboratively generate ideas from multiple perspectives at pre-writing stage. Part of the findings of the impact of a twelve-week intervention (from March to July 2021) on students learning to generate ideas through engaging in group discussions of using Six Thinking Hats will then be reported. The research design is based on the sociocultural theory. The findings present evidence from a mixed-methods approach and fifty-nine participants from two first-year undergraduate natural classes in a Chinese university. Analysis of pre- and post- questionnaires suggests that participants had a positive attitude toward the Six Thinking Hats approach. It fosters their understanding of prewriting and argumentative writing, helps them to generate more ideas not only from multiple perspectives but also in a systematic way. A comparison of participants writing plans confirms an improvement in generating counterarguments and rebuttals to support their arguments. Above all, visual and transcripts data of group discussion collected from different weeks throughout the intervention enable teachers and researchers to ‘see’ the hidden process of learning to generate ideas in action.

Keywords: argumentative writing, innovative pedagogy, six thinking hats, dialogic space, prewriting, higher education

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Authors: Teemu Saressalo

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This article examines the evolution of the Israel Defence Forces’ information operation activities during an eight-year timespan from the 2006 war with Hezbollah to more recent operations such as Pillar of Defence and Protective Edge. To this end, the case study will show a change in the Israel Defence Forces’ activities in the information domain. In the 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel inflicted enormous damage on the Lebanese infrastructure, leaving more than 1,200 people dead and 4,400 injured. Casualties among Hezbollah, Israel’s main adversary, were estimated to range from 250 to 700 fighters. Damage to the Lebanese infrastructure was estimated at over USD 2.5bn, with almost 2,000 houses and buildings damaged and destroyed. Even this amount of destruction did not force Hezbollah to yield and while both sides were claiming victory in the war, Israel paid a heavier price in political backlashes and loss of reputation, mainly due to failures in the media and the way in which the war was portrayed and perceived in Israel and abroad. Much of this can be credited to Hezbollah’s efficient use of the media, and Israel’s failure to do so. Israel managed the next conflict it was engaged in completely differently – it had learnt its lessons and built up new ways to counter its adversary’s propaganda and media operations. In Operation Cast Lead at the turn of 2009, Hamas, Israel’s adversary and Gaza’s dominating faction, was not able to utilize the media in the same way that Hezbollah had. By creating a virtual and physical barrier around the Gaza Strip, Israel almost totally denied its adversary access to the worldwide media, and by restricting the movement of journalists in the area, Israel could let its voice be heard above all. The operation Cast Lead began with a deception operation, which caught Hamas totally off guard. The 21-day campaign left the Gaza Strip devastated, but did not cause as much protest in Israel during the operation as the 2006 war did, mainly due to almost total Israeli dominance in the information dimension. The most important outcome from the Israeli perspective was the fact that Operation Cast Lead was assessed to be a success and the operation enjoyed domestic support along with support from many western nations, which had condemned Israeli actions in the 2006 war. Later conflicts have shown the same tendency towards virtually total dominance in the information domain, which has had an impact on target audiences across the world. Thus, it is clear that well-planned and conducted information operations are able to shape public opinion and influence decision-makers, although Israel might have been outpaced by its rivals.

Keywords: Hamas, Hezbollah, information operations, Israel Defence Forces

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Authors: Giovanni Duran Polo

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Demonstrate the importance of the stages such as Information, Diagnosis, Management, and Intervention is fundamental to have a historical, live, and quality inhabited center. One of the major actions to take is to promote the concept of the management of a historic center with harmonious development. For that, concerned actors should strengthen the concept that said historic center may be the neighborhood of all and for all. The centers of historical cities, presented as any other urban area, social, environmental issues etc; yet they get added value that have no other city neighborhoods. The equity component, either by the urban plan, or environmental quality offered properties of architectural, landscape or some land uses are the differentiating element, while the tool that makes them attractive face pressure exerted by new housing developments or shopping centers. That's why through the experience of working in historical centers, they are declared the actions in heritage areas. This paper will show how the encounter with each of these places are trying to take the phases of information, to gather all the data needed to be closer to the territory with specific data, diagnosis; which allowed the actors to see what state they were, felt how the heart is related to the rest of the city, show what problems affected the situation and what potential it had to compete in a global market. Also, to discuss the importance of the organization, as it is legal and normative basis for it have an order and a concept, when you know what can and what cannot, in an area where the citizen has many myth or history, when he wanted to intervene in protected buildings. It is also appropriate to show how it could develop the intervention phase, where the shares on the tangible elements and intervention for the protection of the heritage property are executed. The management is the final phase which will carry out all that was raised on paper, it's time to orient, explain, persuade, promote, and encourage citizens to take care of the heritage. It is profitable and also an obligation and it is not an insurmountable burden. It has to be said this is the time to pull all the cards to make the historical center and heritage becoming more alive today. It is the moment to make it more inhabited and to transformer it into a quality place, so citizens will cherish and understand the importance of such a place. Inhabited historical centers, endowments and equipment required, with trade quality, with constant cultural offer, with well-preserved buildings and tidy, modern and safe public spaces are always attractive for tourism, but first of all, the place should be conceived for citizens, otherwise everything will be doomed to failure.

Keywords: development, diagnosis, heritage historic center, intervention, management, patrimony

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Authors: T. Pradhan, P. Rijal, M. C. Regmi

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Background: Eclampsia is a multisystem disorder that involves vital organs and failure of these may lead to deterioration of maternal condition and hypoxia and acidosis of fetus resulting in high maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Thus, evaluation of the contributing factors for this condition and its complications leading to maternal deaths should be the priority. Formulating the plan and protocol to decrease these losses should be our goal. Aims and Objectives: To evaluate the risk factors associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcome in patients with eclampsia and to correlate the risk factors associated with maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Methods: All patients with eclampsia admitted in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, B. P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences were enrolled after informed consent from February 2013 to February 2014. Questions as per per-forma were asked to patients, and attendants like Antenatal clinic visits, parity, number of episodes of seizures, duration from onset of seizure to magnesium sulfate and the patients were followed as per the hospital protocol, the mode of delivery, outcome of baby, post partum maternal condition like maternal Intensive Care Unit admission, neurological impairment and mortality were noted before discharge. Statistical analysis was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 11). Mean and percentage were calculated for demographic variables. Pearson’s correlation test and chi-square test were applied to find the relation between the risk factors and the outcomes. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were 10,000 antenatal deliveries during the study period. Fifty-two patients with eclampsia were admitted. All of the patients were unbooked for our institute. Thirty-nine patients were antepartum eclampsia. Thirty-one patients required mechanical ventilator support. Twenty-four patients were delivered by emergency c-section and 21 babies were Low Birth Weight and there were 9 stillbirths. There was one maternal mortality and 45 patients were discharged with improvement but 3 patients had neurological impairment. Mortality was significantly related with number of seizure episodes and time interval between seizure onset and administration of magnesium sulphate. Conclusion: Early detection and management of hypertensive complicating pregnancy during antenatal clinic check up. Early hospitalization and management with magnesium sulphate for eclampsia can help to minimize the maternal and fetal adverse outcomes.

Keywords: eclampsia, maternal mortality, perinatal mortality, risk factors

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Authors: Sandra Smart-Akande, Chaminda Hewage, Imtiaz Khan, Thanuja Mallikarachchi

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According to UK police-recorded data, there has been a substantial increase in knife-related crime and youth violence in the UK since 2014 particularly in the London boroughs. These crime rates are disproportionally distributed across London with the majority of these crimes occurring in the highly deprived areas of London and among young people aged 11 to 24 with large discrepancies across ethnicity, age, gender and borough of residence. Comprehensive studies and literature have identified risk factors associated with a knife carrying among youth to be Adverse Childhood Experience (ACEs), poor mental health, school or social exclusion, drug dealing, drug using, victim of violent crime, bullying, peer pressure or gang involvement, just to mention a few. ACEs are potentially traumatic events that occur in childhood, this can be experiences or stressful events in the early life of a child and can lead to an increased risk of damaging health or social outcomes in the latter life of the individual. Research has shown that children or youths involved in youth violence have had childhood experience characterised by disproportionate adverse childhood experiences and substantial literature link ACEs to be associated with criminal or delinquent behavior. ACEs are commonly grouped by researchers into: Abuse (Physical, Verbal, Sexual), Neglect (Physical, Emotional) and Household adversities (Mental Illness, Incarcerated relative, Domestic violence, Parental Separation or Bereavement). To the author's best knowledge, no study to date has investigated how household mental health (mental health of a parent or mental health of a child) and domestic violence (domestic violence on a parent or domestic violence on a child) is related to knife homicides across the local authorities areas of London. This study seeks to address the gap by examining a large sample of data from the London Metropolitan Police Force and Characteristics of Children in Need data from the UK Department for Education. The aim of this review is to identify and synthesise evidence from data and a range of literature to identify the relationship between adverse childhood experiences and youth violence in the UK. Understanding the link between ACEs and future outcomes can support preventative action.

Keywords: adverse childhood experiences, domestic violence, mental health, youth violence, prediction analysis, London knife crime

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Authors: Ashutosh Verma, Satyendra Mittal

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Numerous geosynthetic reinforced soil (GRS) abutment failures over the years have been attributed to the loss of strength at the facing-reinforcement interface due to seasonal thermal expansion/contraction of the bridge deck. This causes excessive settlement below the bridge seat, causing bridge bumps along the approach road which reduces the design life of any abutment. Before designers while choosing the type of facing, a broad range of facing configurations are undoubtedly available. Generally speaking, these configurations can be divided into three groups: modular (panels/block), continuous, and full height rigid (FHR). The purpose of the current study is to use 1g physical model tests under serviceable cyclic lateral displacements to experimentally investigate the behaviour of these three facing classifications. To simulate field behaviour, a field instrumented GRS abutment prototype was modeled into a N scaled down 1g physical model (N = 5) with adjustable facing arrangements to represent these three facing classifications. For cyclic lateral displacement (d/H) of top facing at loading rate of 1mm/min, the peak earth pressure coefficient (K) on the facing and vertical settlement of the footing (s/B) at 25, 50, 75 and 100 cycles have been measured. For a constant footing offset of x/H = 0.1, three forms of cyclic displacements have been performed to simulate active condition (CA), passive condition (CP), and active-passive condition (CAP). The findings showed that when reinforcements are integrated into the wall along with presence of gravel gabions i.e. FHR design, a rather substantial earth pressure occurs over the facing. Despite this, the FHR facing's continuous nature works in conjunction with the reinforcements' membrane resilience to reduce footing settlement. On the other hand, the pressure over the wall is released upon lateral excitation by the relative displacement between the panels in modular facing reducing the connection strength at the interface and leading to greater settlements below footing. On the contrary, continuous facing do not exhibit relative displacement along the depth of facing rather fails through rotation about the base, which extends the zone of active failure in the backfill leading to large depressions in the backfill region around the bridge seat. Conservatively, FHR facing shows relatively stable responses under lateral cyclic excitations as compared to modular or continuous type of abutment facing.

Keywords: GRS abutments, 1g physical model, full height rigid, cyclic lateral displacement

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Authors: Daisyree S. Arrieta

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The purpose of this study was to assess the mediation process applied on community-based disputes in the selected barangays of Batangas City, namely: Barangay Sta. Rita Karsada, Barangay Bolbok, and Barangay Alangilan. The researcher initially speculated that the required procedures under Republic Act No. 7160 were not religiously followed and satisfied by the Lupong Tagapamayapa members in most of the barangays in the subject locality and this prompted the researcher to conduct an investigation about this research topic. In this study, the subject barangays and their Lupon members still resorted to mediation processes to amicably settle conflicts among community members. It can also be appreciated among the Lupon Tagapamayapa members that they are aware of the purpose and processes required in the mediation of cases brought before them. However, the manner in which they conduct this mediation processes seems to be dependent on the general characteristics of their respective barangays and of the people situated therein. It also very noticeable that the strategies applied by the Lupon members on these cases depend on the ways and means the parties in dispute may arrive into agreements and conciliations. It is concluded by the researcher that the Lupong Tagapamayapa members in Barangay Sta. Rita Karsada, Barangay Bolbok, and Barangay Alangilan are aware and are applying the objectives and procedures of mediation. Also, the success and failure of the mediation processes applied by the Lupong Tagapamayapa members of the subject barangays on community-based disputes brought before them are generally attributed on the attitude and perspective of the parties in dispute towards the entire process of mediation and not on the capacity or capability of the Lupon members to subject them into amicable settlements. In view of the above, the researcher humbly recommends the following: (1) that the composition of the Lupong Tagapamayapa should include individuals from various sectors of the barangay; (2) that the Lupong Tagapamayapa members should undergo various trainings that may enhance their capability to mediate any type of community-based disputes at the expense of the barangay fund or budget; (3) that the Punong Barangay and the Sangguniang Pambarangay, in their own discretion, should allocate budget that will consistently provide regular honoraria for the Lupong Tagapamayapa members; (4) that the Punong Barangay and the Sangguniang Pambarangay should provide an ideal venue for the hearing of community-based disputes; (5) that the City/ Municipal Governments should allocate necessary financial assistance to the barangays under their jurisdiction in honing eligible Lupong Tagapamayapa members; and (6) that the Punong Barangay and other officials should initiate series of information campaigns for their constituents to be informed on the objectives, advantages, and procedures of mediation.

Keywords: amicable settlement, community-based disputes, dispute resolution, mediation

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Authors: Catherine Begin, Jeanne Berthod, Manon Truchon

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In Quebec, there are more than 8,000 community organizations throughout the province, representing more than 72,000 jobs. Working in a community setting involves several particularities (e.g., contact with the suffering of users, feelings of powerlessness, institutional pressure, unstable funding, etc.), which can put workers at risk of fatigue, burnout, and psychological distress. A 2007 study shows that 52% of community workers surveyed have a high psychological distress index. The Ricochet project, founded in 2019, is an initiative aimed at providing various care and services to community workers in the Quebec City region, with a global health approach. Within this program, mindful self-compassion training (MSC) is offered at a low cost. MSC is one of the effective strategies proposed in the literature to help prevent and reduce burnout. Self-compassion is the recognition that suffering, failure, and inadequacies are inherent in the human experience and that everyone, including oneself, deserves compassion. MSC training targets several behavioral, cognitive, and emotional learnings (e.g., motivating oneself with caring, better managing difficult emotions, promoting resilience, etc.). A mixed-method evaluation was conducted with the participants in order to explore the effects of the training on community workers in the Quebec City region. The participants were community workers (management or caregiver). 15 participants completed satisfaction and perceived impact surveys, and 30 participated in structured interviews. Quantitative results showed that participants were generally completely satisfied or satisfied with the training (94%) and perceived that the training allowed them to develop new strategies for dealing with stress (87%). Participants perceived effects on their mood (93%), their contact with others (80%), and their stress level (67%). Some of the barriers raised were scheduling constraints, length of training, and guilt about taking time for oneself. The qualitative results show that individuals experienced long-term benefits, as they were able to apply the tools they received during the training in their daily lives. Some barriers were noted, such as difficulty in getting away from work or problems with the employer, which prevented enrollment. Overall, the results of this evaluation support the use of MSC (mindful self-compassion) training among community workers. Future research could support this evaluation by using a rigorous design and developing innovative ways to overcome the barriers raised.

Keywords: mindful self-compassion, community workers, work stres, burnout, wellbeing at work

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Authors: Michael Hast

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Within their first year, infants can differentiate between objects based on their weight. By at least 5 years children hold consistent weight-related misconceptions about the physical world, such as that heavy things fall faster than lighter ones because of their weight. Such misconceptions are seen as a challenge for science education since they are often highly resistant to change through instruction. Understanding the time point of emergence of such ideas could, therefore, be crucial for early science pedagogy. The paper thus discusses two studies that jointly address the issue by examining young children’s search behaviour in hidden displacement tasks under consideration of relative object weight. In both studies, they were tested with a heavy or a light ball, and they either had information about one of the balls only or both. In Study 1, 88 toddlers aged 2 to 3½ years watched a ball being dropped into a curved tube and were then allowed to search for the ball in three locations – one straight beneath the tube entrance, one where the curved tube lead to, and one that corresponded to neither of the previous outcomes. Success and failure at the task were not impacted by weight of the balls alone in any particular way. However, from around 3 years onwards, relative lightness, gained through having tactile experience of both balls beforehand, enhanced search success. Conversely, relative heaviness increased search errors such that children increasingly searched in the location immediately beneath the tube entry – known as the gravity bias. In Study 2, 60 toddlers aged 2, 2½ and 3 years watched a ball roll down a ramp and behind a screen with four doors, with a barrier placed along the ramp after one of four doors. Toddlers were allowed to open the doors to find the ball. While search accuracy generally increased with age, relative weight did not play a role in 2-year-olds’ search behaviour. Relative lightness improved 2½-year-olds’ searches. At 3 years, both relative lightness and relative heaviness had a significant impact, with the former improving search accuracy and the latter reducing it. Taken together, both studies suggest that between 2 and 3 years of age, relative object weight is increasingly taken into consideration in navigating naïve physical concepts. In particular, it appears to contribute to the early emergence of misconceptions relating to object weight. This insight from developmental psychology research may have consequences for early science education and related pedagogy towards early conceptual change.

Keywords: conceptual development, early science education, intuitive physics, misconceptions, object weight

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Authors: Soo Min Kim, Soo-Won Chae, Soung-Yon Kim, Haea Lee, Ju Yong Kang, Juneyong Lee, Seung-Ho Han

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Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) has become an effective treatment option for cuff tear arthropathy and massive, irreparable rotator cuff tears and indications for its use are expanding. Numerous methods for optimal fixation of the glenoid component have been suggested, such as inferior overhang, inferior tilt, to maximize initial fixation and prevent glenoid component loosening. The inferior tilt fixation of a glenoid component has been suggested, which is expected to decrease scapular notching and to improve the stability of a glenoid component fixation in reverse total shoulder arthroplasty. Inferior tilt fixation of the glenoid component has been suggested, which can improve stability and, because it provides the most uniform compressive forces and imparts the least amount of tensile forces and micromotion, reduce the likelihood of mechanical failure. Another study reported that glenoid component inferior tilt improved impingement-free range of motion as well as minimized the scapular notching. Several authors have shown that inferior tilt of a glenoid component reduces scapular notching. However, controversy still exists regarding its importance in the literature. In this study the influence of inferior tilt fixation on the primary stability of a glenoid component has been investigated. Finite element models were constructed from cadaveric scapulae and glenoid components were implanted with neutral and 10° inferior tilts. Most previous biomechanical studies regarding the effect of glenoid component inferior tilt used a solid rigid polyurethane foam or sawbones block, not cadaveric scapulae, to evaluate the stability of the RTSA. Relative micromotions at the bone-glenoid component interface, and the distribution of bone stresses under the glenoid component and around the screws were analyzed and compared between neutral and 10° inferior tilt groups. Contact area between bone and screws and cut surface area of the cancellous bone exposed after reaming of the glenoid have also been investigated because of the fact that cancellous and cortical bone thickness vary depending on the resection level of the inferior glenoid bone. The greater relative micromotion of the bone-glenoid component interface occurred in the 10° inferior tilt group than in the neutral tilt group, especially at the inferior area of the bone-glenoid component interface. Bone stresses under the glenoid component and around the screws were also higher in the 10° inferior tilt group than in the neutral tilt group, especially at the inferior third of the glenoid bone surface under the glenoid component and inferior scapula. Thus inferior tilt fixation of the glenoid component may adversely affect the primary stability and longevity of the reverse total shoulder arthroplasty.

Keywords: finite element analysis, glenoid component, inferior tilt, reverse total shoulder arthroplasty

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Authors: Emílie Kučerová, Tereza Veverková, Marina Morozovová, Eva Kudová, Jitka Viktorová

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The blood-brain barrier (BBB) is a key element regulating the transport of substances between the blood and the central nervous system (CNS). The BBB protects the CNS from potentially harmful substances and maintains a suitable environment for nervous activity in the CNS, but at the same time, it represents a significant obstacle to the entry of drugs into the CNS. Pharmacoresistant epilepsy is a form of epilepsy that cannot be suppressed using two (or more) appropriately chosen antiepileptic drugs. In many cases, pharmacoresistant epilepsy is characterized by an increased concentration of efflux pumps on the luminal sides of the endothelial cells that form the BBB and an increased number of drug-metabolizing enzymes in the BBB cells, thereby preventing the effective transport of antiepileptic drugs into the CNS. Currently, a number of scientific groups are focusing on the preparation and improvement of BBB models in vitro in order to study cell interactions or transport mechanisms. However, in pathological conditions such as pharmacoresistant epilepsy, there are changes in BBB structure, and current BBB models are insufficient for related research. Our goal is to develop a suitable BBB model for pharmacoresistant epilepsy in vitro and use it to test the transfer of potential antiepileptic drugs. This model is created by co-culturing immortalized human cerebral microvascular endothelial cells, human vascular pericytes and immortalized human astrocytes. The BBB in vitro is cultivated in the form of a 2D transwell model and the integrity of the barrier is verified by measuring transendothelial electrical resistance (TEER). From the current results, a contact cell arrangement with the cultivation of endothelial cells on the upper side of the insert and the co-cultivation of astrocytes and pericytes on the lower side of the insert is selected as the most promising for BBB model cultivation. The pharmacoresistance of the BBB model is achieved by long-term cultivation of endothelial cells in an increasing concentration of selected antiepileptic drugs, which should lead to increased production of efflux pumps and drug-metabolizing enzymes. The pharmacoresistant BBB model in vitro will be further used for the screening of substances that could act both as antiepileptics and at the same time as inhibitors of efflux pumps in endothelial cells. This project was supported by the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic (TACR), Personalized Medicine: Translational research towards biomedical applications, No. TN02000109 and by the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (AS CR) – grant RVO 61388963.

Keywords: antiepileptic drugs, blood-brain barrier, efflux transporters, pharmacoresistance

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Authors: Claudia García-García, Catalina B. García-García, Román Salmerón-Gómez

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Much economic-environmental research includes the analysis of possible interactions by using Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA), which is a specific application of multiple linear regression analysis. This methodology allows analyzing how the effect of one of the independent variables is moderated by a second independent variable by adding a cross-product term between them as an additional explanatory variable. Due to the very specification of the methodology, the moderated factor is often highly correlated with the constitutive terms. Thus, great multicollinearity problems arise. The appearance of strong multicollinearity in a model has important consequences. Inflated variances of the estimators may appear, there is a tendency to consider non-significant regressors that they probably are together with a very high coefficient of determination, incorrect signs of our coefficients may appear and also the high sensibility of the results to small changes in the dataset. Finally, the high relationship among explanatory variables implies difficulties in fixing the individual effects of each one on the model under study. These consequences shifted to the moderated analysis may imply that it is not worth including an interaction term that may be distorting the model. Thus, it is important to manage the problem with some methodology that allows for obtaining reliable results. After a review of those works that applied the MRA among the ten top journals of the field, it is clear that multicollinearity is mostly disregarded. Less than 15% of the reviewed works take into account potential multicollinearity problems. To overcome the issue, this work studies the possible application of recent methodologies to MRA. Particularly, the raised regression is analyzed. This methodology mitigates collinearity from a geometrical point of view: the collinearity problem arises because the variables under study are very close geometrically, so by separating both variables, the problem can be mitigated. Raise regression maintains the available information and modifies the problematic variables instead of deleting variables, for example. Furthermore, the global characteristics of the initial model are also maintained (sum of squared residuals, estimated variance, coefficient of determination, global significance test and prediction). The proposal is implemented to data from countries of the European Union during the last year available regarding greenhouse gas emissions, per capita GDP and a dummy variable that represents the topography of the country. The use of a dummy variable as the moderator is a special variant of MRA, sometimes called “subgroup regression analysis.” The main conclusion of this work is that applying new techniques to the field can improve in a substantial way the results of the analysis. Particularly, the use of raised regression mitigates great multicollinearity problems, so the researcher is able to rely on the interaction term when interpreting the results of a particular study.

Keywords: multicollinearity, MRA, interaction, raise

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Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Mahmud Abdulkadir

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Abstract: The emergence and subsequent rapid worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have posed a global crisis, with a tremendously increasing burden of infection, morbidity, and mortality risks. Recent studies have suggested that severe cases of COVID-19 are characterized by massive biochemical, hematological, and inflammatory alterations whose synergistic effect is estimated to progress to multiple organ damage and failure. In this regard, biochemical monitoring of COVID-19 patients, based on comprehensive laboratory assessments and findings, is expected to play a crucial role in effective clinical management and improving the survival rates of patients. However, biochemical markers that can be informative of COVID-19 patient risk stratification and predictor of clinical outcomes are currently scarcely available. The study aims to investigate the profiles of common biochemical markers and their influence on the severity of the COVID-19 infection in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: A laboratory-based cross-sectional study was conducted from July to August 2020 at Quiha College of Engineering, Mekelle University COVID-19 isolation and treatment center. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Whole blood was collected from each study participant, and serum samples were separated after being delivered to the laboratory. Hematological biomarkers were analyzed using FACS count, while organ tests and serum electrolytes were analyzed using ion-selective electrode methods using a Cobas-6000 series machine. Data was analyzed using SPSS Vs 20. Results: A total of 120 SARS-CoV-2 patients were enrolled during the study. The participants ranged between 18 and 91 years, with a mean age of 52 (±108.8). The majority (40%) of participants were between the ages of 60 and above. Patients with multiple comorbidities developed severe COVID-19, though not statistically significant (p=0.34). Mann-Whitney U test analysis showed that biochemical tests such as neuropile count (p=0.003), AST levels (p=0.050), serum creatinine (p=0.000), and serum sodium (p=0.015) were significantly correlated with severe COVID-19 disease as compared to non-severe disease. Conclusion: The severity of COVID-19 was associated with higher age, organ tests AST and creatinine, serum Na+, and elevated total neutrophile count. Thus, further study needs to be conducted to evaluate the alterations of biochemical biomarkers and their impact on COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, biomarkers, mortality, Tigray, Ethiopia

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Authors: Virendra Nath, Vipin Kumar

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Background: TypeII Diabetes mellitus is a foremost health problem worldwide, predisposing to increased mortality and morbidity. Undesirable effects of the current medications have prompted the researcher to develop more potential drug(s) against the disease. The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are members of the nuclear receptors family and take part in a vital role in the regulation of metabolic equilibrium. They can induce or repress genes associated with adipogenesis, lipid, and glucose metabolism. Aims: Investigation of PPARα/γ agonistic hits were screened by hierarchical virtual screening followed by molecular dynamics simulation and knowledge-based structure-activity relation (SAR) analysis using approved PPAR α/γ dual agonist. Methods: The PPARα/γ agonistic activity of compounds was searched by using Maestro through structure-based virtual screening and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation application. Virtual screening of nuclear-receptor ligands was done, and the binding modes with protein-ligand interactions of newer entity(s) were investigated. Further, binding energy prediction, Stability studies using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of PPARα and γ complex was performed with the most promising hit along with the structural comparative analysis of approved PPARα/γ agonists with screened hit was done for knowledge-based SAR. Results and Discussion: The silicone chip-based approach recognized the most capable nine hits and had better predictive binding energy as compared to the reference drug compound (Tesaglitazar). In this study, the key amino acid residues of binding pockets of both targets PPARα/γ were acknowledged as essential and were found to be associated in the key interactions with the most potential dual hit (ChemDiv-3269-0443). Stability studies using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of PPARα and γ complex was performed with the most promising hit and found root mean square deviation (RMSD) stabile around 2Å and 2.1Å, respectively. Frequency distribution data also revealed that the key residues of both proteins showed maximum contacts with a potent hit during the MD simulation of 20 nanoseconds (ns). The knowledge-based SAR studies of PPARα/γ agonists were studied using 2D structures of approved drugs like aleglitazar, tesaglitazar, etc. for successful designing and synthesis of compounds PPARγ agonistic candidates with anti-hyperlipidimic potential.

Keywords: computational, diabetes, PPAR, simulation

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Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Axel Thallemer, Aleksandar Kostadinov, Abel Fam, Alex Teo

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For centuries, the forming processes in nature served as a source of inspiration for both architects and designers. It seems as most human artifacts are based on ideas which stem from the observation of the biological world and its principles of growth. As a fact, in the cultural history of Homo faber, materials have been mostly used in their solid state: From hand axe to computer mouse, the principle of employing matter has not changed ever since the first creation. In the scope of history only recently and by the help of additive-generative fabrication processes through Computer Aided Design (CAD), designers were enabled to deconstruct solid artifacts into an outer skin and an internal lattice structure. The intention behind this approach is to create a new topology which reduces resources and integrates functions into an additively manufactured component. However, looking at the currently employed lattice structures, it is very clear that those lattice structure geometries have not been thoroughly designed, but rather taken out of basic-geometry libraries which are usually provided by the CAD. In the here presented study, a group of 20 industrial design students created new and unique lattice structures using natural paragons as their models. The selected natural models comprise both the animate and inanimate world, with examples ranging from the spiraling of narwhal tusks, off-shooting of mangrove roots, minimal surfaces of soap bubbles, up to the rhythmical arrangement of molecular geometry, like in the case of SiOC (Carbon-Rich Silicon Oxicarbide). This ideation process leads to a design of a geometric cell, which served as a basic module for the lattice structure, whereby the cell was created in visual analogy to its respective natural model. The spatial lattices were fabricated additively in mostly [X]3 by [Y]3 by [Z]3 units’ volumes using selective powder bed melting in polyamide with (z-axis) 50 mm and 100 µm resolution and subdued to mechanical testing of their elastic zone in a biomedical laboratory. The results demonstrate that additively manufactured lattice structures can acquire different properties when they are designed in analogy to natural models. Several of the lattices displayed the ability to store and return kinetic energy, while others revealed a structural failure which can be exploited for purposes where a controlled collapse of a structure is required. This discovery allows for various new applications of functional lattice structures within industrially created objects.

Keywords: bio-inspired, biomimetic, lattice structures, additive manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Mohd Khairul Bazli Mohd Aziz, Fadhilah Yusof, Zulkifli Yusop, Zalina Mohd Daud, Mohammad Afif Kasno

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Recent developed rainfall network design techniques have been discussed and compared by many researchers worldwide due to the demand of acquiring higher levels of accuracy from collected data. In many studies, rain-gauge networks are designed to provide good estimation for areal rainfall and for flood modelling and prediction. In a certain study, even using lumped models for flood forecasting, a proper gauge network can significantly improve the results. Therefore existing rainfall network in Johor must be optimized and redesigned in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The well-known geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) that is combined with simulated annealing was used as an algorithm of optimization in this study to obtain the optimal number and locations of the rain gauges. Rain gauge network structure is not only dependent on the station density; station location also plays an important role in determining whether information is acquired accurately. The existing network of 84 rain gauges in Johor is optimized and redesigned by using rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, temperature and wind speed data during monsoon season (November – February) for the period of 1975 – 2008. Three different semivariogram models which are Spherical, Gaussian and Exponential were used and their performances were also compared in this study. Cross validation technique was applied to compute the errors and the result showed that exponential model is the best semivariogram. It was found that the proposed method was satisfied by a network of 64 rain gauges with the minimum estimated variance and 20 of the existing ones were removed and relocated. An existing network may consist of redundant stations that may make little or no contribution to the network performance for providing quality data. Therefore, two different cases were considered in this study. The first case considered the removed stations that were optimally relocated into new locations to investigate their influence in the calculated estimated variance and the second case explored the possibility to relocate all 84 existing stations into new locations to determine the optimal position. The relocations of the stations in both cases have shown that the new optimal locations have managed to reduce the estimated variance and it has proven that locations played an important role in determining the optimal network.

Keywords: geostatistics, simulated annealing, semivariogram, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Victoria L. Nkosi, Parvaneh Farhangpour

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Often a Grade 12 certificate is perceived as a passport to tertiary education and the minimum requirement to enter the world of work. In spite of its importance, many students do not make this milestone in South Africa. It is important to find out why so many students still fail in spite of transformation in the education system in the post-apartheid era. Given the complexity of education and its context, this study adopted a case study design to examine one historically underperforming high school in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa in 2013. The aim was to gain a understanding of the inner and outer school contextual factors associated with the high failure rate among Grade 12 students.  Government documents and reports were consulted to identify factors in the district and the village surrounding the school and a student survey was conducted to identify school, home and student factors. The randomly-sampled half of the population of Grade 12 students (53) participated in the survey and quantitative data are analyzed using descriptive statistical methods. The findings showed that a host of factors is at play. The school is located in a village within a municipality which has been one of the poorest three municipalities in South Africa and the lowest Grade 12 pass rate in the Mpumalanga province.   Moreover, over half of the families of the students are single parents, 43% are unemployed and the majority has a low level of education. In addition, most families (83%) do not have basic study materials such as a dictionary, books, tables, and chairs. A significant number of students (70%) are over-aged (+19 years old); close to half of them (49%) are grade repeaters. The school itself lacks essential resources, namely computers, science laboratories, library, and enough furniture and textbooks. Moreover, teaching and learning are negatively affected by the teachers’ occasional absenteeism, inadequate lesson preparation, and poor communication skills. Overall, the continuous low performance of students in this school mirrors the vicious circle of multiple negative conditions present within and outside of the school. The complexity of factors associated with the underperformance of Grade 12 students in this school calls for a multi-dimensional intervention from government and stakeholders. One important intervention should be the placement of over-aged students and grade-repeaters in suitable educational institutions for the benefit of other students.

Keywords: inner context, outer context, over-aged students, vicious cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Zhihui Liu, Dongmei Hao, Qian Qiu, Yang An, Lin Yang, Song Zhang, Yimin Yang, Xuwen Li, Dingchang Zheng

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Premature birth, defined as birth before 37 completed weeks of gestation is a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality and has long-term adverse consequences for health. It has recently been reported that the worldwide preterm birth rate is around 10%. The existing measurement techniques for diagnosing preterm delivery include tocodynamometer, ultrasound and fetal fibronectin. However, they are subjective, or suffer from high measurement variability and inaccurate diagnosis and prediction of preterm labor. Electrohysterography (EHG) method based on recording of uterine electrical activity by electrodes attached to maternal abdomen, is a promising method to assess uterine activity and diagnose preterm labor. The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference of EHG signal features between term labor and preterm labor. Free access database was used with 300 signals acquired in two groups of pregnant women who delivered at term (262 cases) and preterm (38 cases). Among them, EHG signals from 38 term labor and 38 preterm labor were preprocessed with band-pass Butterworth filters of 0.08–4Hz. Then, EHG signal features were extracted, which comprised classical time domain description including root mean square and zero-crossing number, spectral parameters including peak frequency, mean frequency and median frequency, wavelet packet coefficients, autoregression (AR) model coefficients, and nonlinear measures including maximal Lyapunov exponent, sample entropy and correlation dimension. Their statistical significance for recognition of two groups of recordings was provided. The results showed that mean frequency of preterm labor was significantly smaller than term labor (p < 0.05). 5 coefficients of AR model showed significant difference between term labor and preterm labor. The maximal Lyapunov exponent of early preterm (time of recording < the 26th week of gestation) was significantly smaller than early term. The sample entropy of late preterm (time of recording > the 26th week of gestation) was significantly smaller than late term. There was no significant difference for other features between the term labor and preterm labor groups. Any future work regarding classification should therefore focus on using multiple techniques, with the mean frequency, AR coefficients, maximal Lyapunov exponent and the sample entropy being among the prime candidates. Even if these methods are not yet useful for clinical practice, they do bring the most promising indicators for the preterm labor.

Keywords: electrohysterogram, feature, preterm labor, term labor

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf

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Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.

Keywords: crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Hussaini Tunde Subairu

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Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) sectors serve as catalyst for employment generation, national growth, poverty reduction and economic development in developing and developed countries. However, in Nigeria despite copious and plethora of government policies and stimulus schemes directed at SMEs, the sector is still characterized by high rate of failure and discontinuities. This study therefore investigated owners/managers profile, firms characteristics and external factors as possible determinants of SMEs growth from selected SMEs in Kwara State. Primary data were sourced from 200 SMEs respondents registered with the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASMES) in Kwara State Central Senatorial District. Multiple Regressions Analysis (MRA) was used to analyze the relationship between dependent and independent variables, and pair wise correlation was employed to examine the relationship among independent variables. The Analysis of Variable (ANOVA) was employed to indicate the overall significant of the model The findings revealed that Analysis of variance (ANOVA) put the value of F-statistics at 420.45 and p-value at 0.000 was significant. The values of R2 and Adjusted R2 of 0.9643 and 0.9620 respectively suggested that 96 percent of variations in employment growth were explained by the explanatory variables. The level of technical and managerial education has t- value of 24.14 and p-value of 0.001, length of managers/owners experience in similar trade with t- value of 21.37 and p-value of 0.001, age of managers/owners with t- value of 42.98 and p-value of 0.001, firm age with t- value of 25.91 and p-value of 0.001, numbers of firms in a cluster with t- value of 7.20 and p-value of 0.001, access to formal finance with t-value of 5.56 and p-value of 0.001, firm technology innovation with t- value of 25.32 and p-value of 0.01, institutional support with t- value of 18.89 and p-value of 0.01, globalization with t- value of 9.78 and p-value of 0.01, and infrastructure with t-value of 10.75 and p-value of 0.01. The result also indicated that initial size has t-value of -1.71 and p-value of 0.090 which is consistent with Gibrat’s Law. The study concluded that owners/managers profile, firm specific characteristics and external factors substantially influenced employment growths of SMEs in the study area. Therefore, policy implication should enhance human capital development of SMEs owners/managers, and strengthen fiscal policy thrust through imposition on tariff regime to minimize effect of globalization. Governments at all level must support SMEs growth radically and enhance institutional support for SMEs growth and radically and significantly upgrading key infrastructure as rail/roads, rail, telecommunications, water and power.

Keywords: external factors, firm specific characteristics, owners / manager profile, small and medium enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Dangut Maren David, Skaf Zakwan

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Adequate monitoring of vehicle component in other to obtain high uptime is the goal of predictive maintenance, the major challenge faced by businesses in industries is the significant cost associated with a delay in service delivery due to system downtime. Most of those businesses are interested in predicting those problems and proactively prevent them in advance before it occurs, which is the core advantage of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) application. The recent emergence of industry 4.0 or industrial internet of things (IIoT) has led to the need for monitoring systems activities and enhancing system-to-system or component-to- component interactions, this has resulted to a large generation of data known as big data. Analysis of big data represents an increasingly important, however, due to complexity inherently in the dataset such as imbalance classification problems, it becomes extremely difficult to build a model with accurate high precision. Data-driven predictive modeling for condition-based maintenance (CBM) has recently drowned research interest with growing attention to both academics and industries. The large data generated from industrial process inherently comes with a different degree of complexity which posed a challenge for analytics. Thus, imbalance classification problem exists perversely in industrial datasets which can affect the performance of learning algorithms yielding to poor classifier accuracy in model development. Misclassification of faults can result in unplanned breakdown leading economic loss. In this paper, an advanced approach for handling imbalance classification problem is proposed and then a prognostic model for predicting aircraft component replacement is developed to predict component replacement in advanced by exploring aircraft historical data, the approached is based on hybrid ensemble-based method which improves the prediction of the minority class during learning, we also investigate the impact of our approach on multiclass imbalance problem. We validate the feasibility and effectiveness in terms of the performance of our approach using real-world aircraft operation and maintenance datasets, which spans over 7 years. Our approach shows better performance compared to other similar approaches. We also validate our approach strength for handling multiclass imbalanced dataset, our results also show good performance compared to other based classifiers.

Keywords: prognostics, data-driven, imbalance classification, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: R. Prinsloo

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Amniotic fluid stem cells (AFSC) have been shown to contribute towards the amelioration of Acute Renal Failure (ARF), but the mechanisms underlying the renoprotective effect are largely unknown. Therefore, the main goal of the current study was to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of AFSC in a cisplatin-induced rat model of ARF and to investigate the underlying mechanisms responsible for its renoprotective effect. To study the therapeutic efficacy of AFSC, ARF was induced in Wistar rats by an intra-peritoneal injection of cisplatin, and five days after administration, the rats were randomized into two groups and injected with either AFSC or normal saline intravenously. On day 8 and 12 after cisplatin injection, i.e., day 3 and day7 post-therapy respectively, the blood biochemical parameters, histopathological changes, apoptosis, and expression of pro-apoptotic, anti-apoptotic and autophagy-related proteins in renal tissues were studied in both groups of rats. Administration of AFSC in ARF rats resulted in improvement of renal function and attenuation of renal damage as reflected by significant decrease in blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine levels, tubular cell apoptosis as assessed by Bax/Bcl2 ratio, and expression of the pro-apoptotic proteins viz. PUMA, Bax, cleaved caspase-3 and cleaved caspase-9 as compared to saline-treated group. Furthermore, in the AFSC-treated group as compared to saline-treated group, there was a significant increase in the activation of autophagy as evident by increased expression of LC3-II, ATG5, ATG7, Beclin1 and phospho-AMPK levels with a concomitant decrease in phospho-p70S6K and p62 expression levels. To further confirm whether the protective effects of AFSC on cisplatin-induced apoptosis were dependent on autophagy, chloroquine, an autophagy inhibitor was administered by the intra-peritoneal route. Chloroquine administration led to significant reduction in the anti-apoptotic effects of the AFSC therapy and further deterioration in the renal structure and function caused by cisplatin. Collectively, our results put forth that AFSC ameliorates cisplatin-induced ARF through induction of autophagy and inhibition of apoptosis. Furthermore, the protective effects of AFSC were blunted by chloroquine, highlighting that activation of autophagy is an important mechanism of action for the protective role of AFSC in cisplatin-induced renal injury.

Keywords: best interest of the child, children's rights, parent and child relationship, parental responsibilities and rights

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Mindaye Teshome, Evaldo Muñoz Braz, Carlos M. M. Eleto Torres, Patricia Mattos

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Sustainable forest management planning requires up-to-date information on the structure, standing volume, biomass, and growth rate of trees from a given forest. This kind of information is lacking in many forests in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to quantify the population structure, diameter growth rate, and standing volume of wood from Juniperus procera trees in the Chilimo forest. A total of 163 sample plots were set up in the forest to collect the relevant vegetation data. Growth ring measurements were conducted on stem disc samples collected from 12 J. procera trees. Diameter and height measurements were recorded from a total of 1399 individual trees with dbh ≥ 2 cm. The growth rate, maximum current and mean annual increments, minimum logging diameter, and cutting cycle were estimated, and alternative cutting cycles were established. Using these data, the harvestable volume of wood was projected by alternating four minimum logging diameters and five cutting cycles following the stand table projection method. The results show that J. procera trees have an average density of 183 stems ha⁻¹, a total basal area of 12.1 m² ha⁻¹, and a standing volume of 98.9 m³ ha⁻¹. The mean annual diameter growth ranges between 0.50 and 0.65 cm year⁻¹ with an overall mean of 0.59 cm year⁻¹. The population of J. procera tree followed a reverse J-shape diameter distribution pattern. The maximum current annual increment in volume (CAI) occurred at around 49 years when trees reached 30 cm in diameter. Trees showed the maximum mean annual increment in volume (MAI) around 91 years, with a diameter size of 50 cm. The simulation analysis revealed that 40 cm MLD and a 15-year cutting cycle are the best minimum logging diameter and cutting cycle. This combination showed the largest harvestable volume of wood potential, volume increments, and a 35% recovery of the initially harvested volume. It is concluded that the forest is well stocked and has a large amount of harvestable volume of wood from J. procera trees. This will enable the country to partly meet the national wood demand through domestic wood production. The use of the current population structure and diameter growth data from tree ring analysis enables the exact prediction of the harvestable volume of wood. The developed model supplied an idea about the productivity of the J. procera tree population and enables policymakers to develop specific management criteria for wood harvesting.

Keywords: logging, growth model, cutting cycle, minimum logging diameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Lahcen Daoudi, Fatima Zahra Omdi, Abldelali Gourfi

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In Morocco, as in most Mediterranean countries, water scarcity is a common situation because of low and unevenly distributed rainfall. The expansions of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas and tourist resorts, contribute to an increase of water demand. Therefore in the 1960s Morocco embarked on an ambitious program to increase the number of dams to boost water retention capacity. However, the decrease in the capacity of these reservoirs caused by sedimentation is a major problem; it is estimated at 75 million m3/year. Dams and reservoirs became unusable for their intended purposes due to sedimentation in large rivers that result from soil erosion. Soil erosion presents an important driving force in the process affecting the landscape. It has become one of the most serious environmental problems that raised much interest throughout the world. Monitoring soil erosion risk is an important part of soil conservation practices. The estimation of soil loss risk is the first step for a successful control of water erosion. The aim of this study is to estimate the soil loss risk and its spatial distribution in the different fields of Morocco and to prioritize areas for soil conservation interventions. The approach followed is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using remote sensing and GIS, which is the most popular empirically based model used globally for erosion prediction and control. This model has been tested in many agricultural watersheds in the world, particularly for large-scale basins due to the simplicity of the model formulation and easy availability of the dataset. The spatial distribution of the annual soil loss was elaborated by the combination of several factors: rainfall erosivity, soil erodability, topography, and land cover. The average annual soil loss estimated in several basins watershed of Morocco varies from 0 to 50t/ha/year. Watersheds characterized by high-erosion-vulnerability are located in the North (Rif Mountains) and more particularly in the Central part of Morocco (High Atlas Mountains). This variation of vulnerability is highly correlated to slope variation which indicates that the topography factor is the main agent of soil erosion within these basin catchments. These results could be helpful for the planning of natural resources management and for implementing sustainable long-term management strategies which are necessary for soil conservation and for increasing over the projected economic life of the dam implemented.

Keywords: soil loss, RUSLE, GIS-remote sensing, watershed, Morocco

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Sarah E. Nelson, Casey Weiner, Alexander Sigmon, Jun Hua, Haris I. Sair, Jose I. Suarez, Robert D. Stevens

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Graph-theoretical information from structural connectomes indicated significant connectivity changes and improved acute prognostication in a Random Forest (RF) model in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), which can lead to significant morbidity and mortality and has traditionally been fraught by poor methods to predict outcome. This study’s hypothesis was that structural connectivity changes occur in canonical brain networks of acute aSAH patients, and that these changes are associated with functional outcome at six months. In a prospective cohort of patients admitted to a single institution for management of acute aSAH, patients underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) as part of a multimodal MRI scan. A weighted undirected structural connectome was created of each patient’s images using Constant Solid Angle (CSA) tractography, with 176 regions of interest (ROIs) defined by the Johns Hopkins Eve atlas. ROIs were sorted into four networks: Default Mode Network, Executive Control Network, Salience Network, and Whole Brain. The resulting nodes and edges were characterized using graph-theoretic features, including Node Strength (NS), Betweenness Centrality (BC), Network Degree (ND), and Connectedness (C). Clinical (including demographics and World Federation of Neurologic Surgeons scale) and graph features were used separately and in combination to train RF and Logistic Regression classifiers to predict two outcomes: dichotomized modified Rankin Score (mRS) at discharge and at six months after discharge (favorable outcome mRS 0-2, unfavorable outcome mRS 3-6). A total of 56 aSAH patients underwent DTI a median (IQR) of 7 (IQR=8.5) days after admission. The best performing model (RF) combining clinical and DTI graph features had a mean Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (AUROC) of 0.88 ± 0.00 and Area Under the Precision Recall Curve (AUPRC) of 0.95 ± 0.00 over 500 trials. The combined model performed better than the clinical model alone (AUROC 0.81 ± 0.01, AUPRC 0.91 ± 0.00). The highest-ranked graph features for prediction were NS, BC, and ND. These results indicate reorganization of the connectome early after aSAH. The performance of clinical prognostic models was increased significantly by the inclusion of DTI-derived graph connectivity metrics. This methodology could significantly improve prognostication of aSAH.

Keywords: connectomics, diffusion tensor imaging, graph theory, machine learning, subarachnoid hemorrhage

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: K. Mokatse, O. M. Barei, K. Gabanakgosi, P. Matlhabaphiri

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The mining of pit slopes is often associated with some level of deviation from design recommendations, and this may translate to associated changes in the stability of the excavated pit slopes. Therefore slope angle design reconciliations are essential for assessing and monitoring compliance of excavated pit slopes to accepted slope designs. These associated changes in slope stability may be reflected by changes in the calculated factors of safety and/or probabilities of failure. Reconciliations of as-mined and slope design profiles are conducted periodically to assess the implications of these deviations on pit slope stability. Currently, the slope design reconciliation process being implemented in Jwaneng Mine involves the measurement of as-mined and design slope angles along vertical sections cut along the established geotechnical design section lines on the GEOVIA GEMS™ software. Bench retentions are calculated as a percentage of the available catchment area, less over-mined and under-mined areas, to that of the designed catchment area. This process has proven to be both tedious and requires a lot of manual effort and time to execute. Consequently, a new semi-automated mine-to-design reconciliation approach that utilizes laser scanning and GIS-based tools is being proposed at Jwaneng Mine. This method involves high-resolution scanning of targeted bench walls, subsequent creation of 3D surfaces from point cloud data and the derivation of slope toe lines and crest lines on the Maptek I-Site Studio software. The toe lines and crest lines are then exported to the ArcGIS software where distance offsets between the design and actual bench toe lines and crest lines are calculated. Retained bench catchment capacity is measured as distances between the toe lines and crest lines on the same bench elevations. The assessment of the performance of the inter-ramp and overall slopes entails the measurement of excavated and design slope angles along vertical sections on the ArcGIS software. Excavated and design toe-to-toe or crest-to-crest slope angles are measured for inter-ramp stack slope reconciliations. Crest-to-toe slope angles are also measured for overall slope angle design reconciliations. The proposed approach allows for a more automated, accurate, quick and easier workflow for carrying out slope angle design reconciliations. This process has proved highly effective and timeous in the assessment of slope performance in Jwaneng Mine. This paper presents a newly proposed process for assessing compliance to slope angle designs for Jwaneng Mine.

Keywords: slope angle designs, slope design recommendations, slope performance, slope stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: G. Natuhwera, M. Rabwoni, P. Ellis, A. Merriman

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Aims: Health workers are likely to document patients’ care inaccurately, especially when using new and revised case tools, and this could negatively impact patient care. This study set out to; (1) assess nurses’ and clinicians’ documentation practices when using a new patients’ continuation case sheet (PCCS) and (2) explore nurses’ and clinicians’ experiences regarding documentation of patients’ information in the new PCCS. The purpose of introducing the PCCS was to improve continuity of care for patients attending clinics at which they were unlikely to see the same clinician or nurse consistently. Methods: This was a mixed methods study. The cross-sectional inquiry retrospectively reviewed 100 case notes of active patients on hospice and palliative care program. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire with constructs formulated from the new PCCS under study. The qualitative element was face-to-face audio-recorded, open-ended interviews with a purposive sample of one palliative care clinician, and four palliative care nurse specialists. Thematic analysis was used. Results: Missing patients’ biogeographic information was prevalent at 5-10%. Spiritual and psychosocial issues were not documented in 42.6%, and vital signs in 49.2%. Poorest documentation practices were observed in past medical history part of the PCCS at 40-63%. Four themes emerged from interviews with clinicians and nurses-; (1) what remains unclear and challenges, (2) comparing the past with the present, (3) experiential thoughts, and (4) transition and adapting to change. Conclusions: The PCCS seems to be a comprehensive and simple tool to be used to document patients’ information at subsequent visits. The comprehensiveness and utility of the PCCS does paper to be limited by the failure to train staff in its use prior to introducing. The authors find the PCCS comprehensive and suitable to capture patients’ information and recommend it can be adopted and used in other palliative and hospice care settings, if suitable introductory training accompanies its introduction. Otherwise, the reliability and validity of patients’ information collected by this PCCS can be significantly reduced if some sections therein are unclear to the clinicians/nurses. The study identified clinicians- and nurses-related pitfalls in documentation of patients’ care. Clinicians and nurses need to prioritize accurate and complete documentation of patient care in the PCCS for quality care provision. This study should be extended to other sites using similar tools to ensure representative and generalizable findings.

Keywords: documentation, information case sheet, palliative care, quality improvement

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Shengnan Chen, Shuhua Wang

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Successful production of hydrocarbon from unconventional tight oil reserves has changed the energy landscape in North America. The oil contained within these reservoirs typically will not flow to the wellbore at economic rates without assistance from advanced horizontal well and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. Efficient and economic development of these reserves is a priority of society, government, and industry, especially under the current low oil prices. Meanwhile, society needs technological and process innovations to enhance oil recovery while concurrently reducing environmental impacts. Recently, big data analysis and artificial intelligence become very popular, developing data-driven insights for better designs and decisions in various engineering disciplines. However, the application of data mining in petroleum engineering is still in its infancy. The objective of this research aims to apply intelligent data analysis and data-driven models to exploit unconventional oil reserves both efficiently and economically. More specifically, a comprehensive database including the reservoir geological data, reservoir geophysical data, well completion data and production data for thousands of wells is firstly established to discover the valuable insights and knowledge related to tight oil reserves development. Several data analysis methods are introduced to analysis such a huge dataset. For example, K-means clustering is used to partition all observations into clusters; principle component analysis is applied to emphasize the variation and bring out strong patterns in the dataset, making the big data easy to explore and visualize; exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is used to identify the complex interrelationships between well completion data and well production data. Different data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, and machine learning technique are then summarized, and appropriate ones are selected to analyze the database based on the prediction accuracy, model robustness, and reproducibility. Advanced knowledge and patterned are finally recognized and integrated into a modified self-adaptive differential evolution optimization workflow to enhance the oil recovery and maximize the net present value (NPV) of the unconventional oil resources. This research will advance the knowledge in the development of unconventional oil reserves and bridge the gap between the big data and performance optimizations in these formations. The newly developed data-driven optimization workflow is a powerful approach to guide field operation, which leads to better designs, higher oil recovery and economic return of future wells in the unconventional oil reserves.

Keywords: big data, artificial intelligence, enhance oil recovery, unconventional oil reserves

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Homyr L. Garcia, Jr., Anne Margaret A. Rendon, Carla Michaela B. Taguinod

Abstract:

Nothing is constant in this world but change. This is the reality wherein a lot of people fail to recognize and maybe, it is because of the fact that some see things that are happening with little value or no value at all until it’s gone. For the past years, Egypt was known for its stable government. It was able to withstand a lot of problems and crisis which challenged their country in ways which can never be imagined. In the present time, it seems like in just a snap of a finger, the said stability vanished and it was immediately replaced by a crisis which resulted to a failure in some parts of their government. In addition, this problem continued to worsen and the current situation of Egypt is just a reflection or a result of it. On the other hand, as the researchers continued to study the reasons why the government of Egypt is unstable, they concluded that there might be a possibility that they will be able to produce ways in which their country could be helped or improved. The instability of the government of Egypt is the product of combining all the problems which affects the lives of the people. Some of the reasons that the researchers found are the following: 1) unending doubts of the people regarding the ruling capacity of elected presidents, 2) removal of President Mohamed Morsi in position, 3) economic crisis, 4) a lot of protests and revolution happened, 5) resignation of the long term President Hosni Mubarak and 6) the office of the President is most likely available only to the chosen successor. Also, according to previous researches, there are two plausible scenarios for the instability of Egypt: 1) a military intervention specifically the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces or SCAF, resulting from a contested succession and 2) an Islamist push for political power which highlights the claim that religion is a hindrance towards the development of their country and government. From the eight possible reasons, the researchers decided that they will be focusing on economic crisis since the instability is more clearly seen in the country’s economy which directly affects the people and the government itself. In addition, they made a hypothesis which states that stable economy is a prerequisite towards a stable government. If they will be able to show how this claim is true by using the Social Autopsy Research Design for the qualitative method and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the quantitative method, the researchers might be able to produce a proposal on how Egypt can stabilize their government and avoid such problems. Also, the hypothesis will be based from the Rational Action Theory which is a theory for understanding and modeling social and economy as well as individual behavior.

Keywords: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, rational action theory, social autopsy research design, supreme council of the armed forces (SCAF)

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