Search results for: case definition

Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Anshul Raja

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Cystic lesions of the spleen are rare and splenic hydatid cysts account for only 0.5% to 8% of all hydatidosis. Authors hereby report a case where a 50-year-old female presented to our hospital with the complains of heaviness and pain over left upper abdomen over the past 8-10 years. On radiological examination, ultrasonography revealed findings consistent with isolated splenic hydatid cyst and was later on confirmed on Computed Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). No other organ or system involvement was seen. The patient underwent splenectomy and hydatid cyst was confirmed on histopathology. Owing to its rarity, it offers a diagnostic challenge to physicians but can reliably be diagnosed with great confidence employing various imaging modalities like CT and MRI.

Keywords: gastrointestinal radiology, abdominal imaging, hydatid cyst, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Pitsanu Poonpetpun, Witthaya Mekhum, Warangkana Kongsil

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This research was an attempt to study work motivation of employees in Siam Thai Co., Ltd. The study took place in Rayong with 59 employees as participants. The research tool was questionnaires which consisted of sets of questions about company’s policy, management, executives and good relationship within the firm. The questionnaires style was rating scale with 5 score bands. The questionnaires were analyzed by percentage, frequency, mean and standard deviation. From the study, the result showed that policy and management were in moderate scale, executive and managers were in moderate scale and relationship within the firm were in high scale.

Keywords: motivation, job, performance, employees

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Authors: Marco Ferretti, Marcello Risitano, Maria Cristina Pietronudo, Lina Ozturk

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A green port is the result of a sustainable long-term strategy adopted by an entire port infrastructure, therefore by the set of actors involved in port activities. The strategy aims to realise the development of sustainable port infrastructure focused on the reduction of negative environmental impacts without jeopardising economic growth. Green technology represents the core tool to implement sustainable solutions, however, they are not a magic bullet. Ports have always been integrated in the local territory affecting the environment in which they operate, therefore, the sustainable strategy should fit with the entire local systems. Therefore, adopting a sustainable strategy means to know how to involve and engage a wide stakeholders’ network (industries, production, markets, citizens, and public authority). The existing research on the topic has not well integrated this perspective with those of sustainability. Research on green ports have mixed the sustainability aspects with those on the maritime industry, neglecting dynamics that lead to the development of the green port phenomenon. We propose an analysis of green ports adopting the lens of ecosystem studies in the field of management. The ecosystem approach provides a way to model relations that enable green solutions and green practices in a port ecosystem. However, due to the local dimension of a port and the port trend on innovation, i.e., sustainable innovation, we draw to a specific concept of ecosystem, those on local innovation systems. More precisely, we explore if a green port is a local innovation system engaged in developing sustainable innovation with a large impact on the territory or merely an innovation adopter. To address this issue, we adopt a comparative case study selecting two innovative ports in Europe: Rotterdam and Genova. The case study is a research method focused on understanding the dynamics in a specific situation and can be used to provide a description of real circumstances. Preliminary results show two different approaches in supporting sustainable innovation: one represented by Rotterdam, a pioneer in competitiveness and sustainability, and the second one represented by Genoa, an example of technology adopter. The paper intends to provide a better understanding of how sustainable innovations are developed and in which manner a network of port and local stakeholder support this process. Furthermore, it proposes a taxonomy of green ports as developers and adopters of sustainable innovation, suggesting also best practices to model relationships that enable the port ecosystem in applying a sustainable strategy.

Keywords: green port, innovation, sustainability, local innovation systems

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Authors: Mohmmad A. Obeidat, Amjed Al Fahoum, Ayman M. Mansour

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The recognition of an abnormal activity of the brain functionality is a vital issue. To determine the type of the abnormal activity either a brain image or brain signal are usually considered. Imaging localizes the defect within the brain area and relates this area with somebody functionalities. However, some functions may be disturbed without affecting the brain as in epilepsy. In this case, imaging may not provide the symptoms of the problem. A cheaper yet efficient approach that can be utilized to detect abnormal activity is the measurement and analysis of the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. The main goal of this work is to come up with a new method to facilitate the classification of the abnormal and disorder activities within the brain directly using EEG signal processing, which makes it possible to be applied in an on-line monitoring system.

Keywords: EEG, wavelet, epilepsy, detection

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Authors: Natnicha Hasoontree

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This purpose of this paper was to investigate the influence of loyalty of inbound tourists towards tourist destinations in Bangkok, Thailand. The antecedents of loyalty in this study included tourists’ satisfaction towards tourist destinations, perceived value of tourist destinations, feelings of engagement with tourist destinations, acquaintance with tourist destinations, and seeking novelty. By using multi-stage sampling technique, 400 tourists were sampled: 200 male and 200 female inbound tourists. The findings revealed that inbound tourists’ satisfaction was the most important factor that could influence the factor of loyalty. The findings indicated that the overall antecedents had a mean of 4.416 with the overall standard deviation of 0.808.

Keywords: antecedents, loyalty, inbound tourists, tourist destinations

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Authors: Ni Putu Evi Wijayanti, Made Darmiati, Ni Ketut Wiwiek Agustina, Putu Gde Arie Yudhistira, Marcel Hardono

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This research study discusses the tourists’ perception to white water rafting service quality in Bali (Case Study: Ayung River). The aim is to determine the tourists’ perception to: firstly, the services quality of white water rafting trip in Bali, secondly, is to determine which dimensions of the service quality that need to take main handling priority in accordance with the level of important service of white water rafting company’s working performance toward the service quality of rafting in Bali especially on Ayung Riveri, lastly, is to know the efforts are needed to improve the service quality of white water rafting trip for tourist in Bali, specifically on Ayung River. This research uses the concept of the service quality with five principal dimensions, namely: Tangibles, Reliability, Responsiveness, Assurance, Empathy. Location of the research is tourist destination area of the Ayung River, that lies between the boundary of Badung Regency at Western part and Gianyar Regency eastern side. There are three rafting companies located on the Ayung River. This research took 100 respondents who were selected as a sample by using purposive sampling method. Data were collected through questionnaires distributed to domestic tourists then tabulated using the weighting scale (Likert scale) and analyzed using analysis of the benefit performance (important performance analysis) in the form of Cartesian diagram. The results of the research are translated into three points. Firstly, there are 23 indicators assessed by the service aspect of domestic tourists where the highest value is the aspect of familiarity between the tourist and employees with points (0.29) and the lowest score is the aspect of the clarity of the Ayung River water discharge value (-0.35). This shows that the indicator has not been fully able to meet the expectations of service aspects of the rating. Secondly, the dimensions of service quality that requires serious attention is the dimension of tangibles. The third point is the efforts that needs to be done adapted to the results of the Cartesian diagram breaks down into four quadrants. Based on the results of the research suggested to the manager of the white water rafting tour in order to continuously improve the service quality to tourists, performing new innovations in terms of product variations, provide insight and training to its employees to increase their competence, especially in the field of excellent service so that the satisfaction rating can be achieved.

Keywords: perception, rafting, service quality, tourist satisfaction

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Authors: Abdulrahman M. Alsuhaibani, Martin Maken

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FACTS devices have great influence on the grid stability and power markets price. Recently, there is intent to integrate a large scale of renewable energy sources to the power system which in turn push the power system to operate closer to the security limits. This paper discusses the power system stability and reliability improvement that could be achieved by using FACTS. There is a comparison between FACTS devices to evaluate their performance for different functions. A case study has also been made about its effect on reducing generation cost and minimizing transmission losses which have good impact on efficient and economic operation of electricity markets

Keywords: FACTS, grid stability, spot price, OPF

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Authors: Arsany Philip Fawzy

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This study is going to address the hurdles of project management in the joinery field. It is widely divided into two sections; the first one will shed light on how to execute large-scale projects with a specific focus on the middle east region. It will also raise major obstacles that may face the joinery team from the site clearance and the coordination between the joinery team and the construction team. The second section is going to technically analyze the commercial side of the joinery and how to control the main cost of the project to avoid financial problems. It will also suggest empirical solutions to monitor the cost impact (e.g., Variation of contract quantity and claims).

Keywords: clearance, quality, cost, variation, claim

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Authors: Jessica Neri, Elena Faccio

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In Europe, except for Denmark and Malta, the legal gender change and the stages of the possible process of gender transition are bound to the diagnosis of a gender identity disorder. The requirement of the evaluation of a mental disorder might have many implications on trans people’s self-representations, interpersonal relations in different social contexts and the therapeutic relations with clinicians during the transition. Psychopathological language may contribute to define the individual’s reality from normative presuppositions with value implications related to the dominant cultural principles. In an effort to mark the boundaries between sanity and pathology, it concurs to the definition of the management procedures of the constructed diversities and deviances, legitimizing the operational practices of particular professional figures. The aim of this research concerns the analysis of the diagnostic category of gender dysphoria contained in the last edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. In particular, this study focuses on the relationship between the implicit and explicit assumptions related to the expressions of gender non-conformity, that sustain the language and the criteria characterizing the Manual, and the possible implications on people’s narratives of transition. In order to achieve this objective two main research methods were used: historical reconstruction of the diagnostic category in the different versions of the Manual and content analysis of that category in the present version. From the historical analysis, in the medical and psychiatric field gender non-conformity has been predominantly explicated by naturalistic perspectives, naming it ‘transsexualism’ and collocating it in the category of gender identity disorder. Currently, pathological judged experiences are represented by gender dysphoria, described in the DSM-5 as the distress that may accompany the incongruence between one's experienced or expressed gender and one's assigned gender, specifying that there must be ‘evidence’ of this. Implicit theories about gender binary, parallelism between gender identity, sex and sexuality and the understanding of the mental health and the subject’s agency as subordinated to the expert knowledge, can be found in the process of designation of the category. A lack of awareness of the historical, social and political aspects connected to the cultural and normative dimensions at the basis of these implicit theories, can be noticed and data given by culture and data given by supposed -biological or psychological- nature, are often confused. This reductionist interpretation of gender and its presumed diversities legitimize the clinician to assume the role of searching and orienting, in a correctional perspective, the biographical elements that correspond to him specific expectations, with no space for other possibilities and identity configurations for people in transition. This research may contribute to the current critical debate about the epistemological foundation of the psychodiagnosis, emphasizing the pragmatic effects on the individuals and on the psychological practice in its wider social context. This work also permits to underline the risks due to the lack of awareness of the processes of social construction of the diagnostic system and its essential role of defence of the values that hold up the symbolic universe of reference.

Keywords: diagnosis, gender dysphoria, narratives, social constructionism

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Authors: Daisy Owomugasho Ndikuno

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The paper explores the extent to which mindset change has been critical in the community rural development in Uganda. It is descriptive research with The Parish Development Model as a case study. The results show that rural community development is possible and its success largely depends on harnessing local resources and knowledge; leveraging education, empowerment and awareness; creating sustainable livelihoods and encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation; access to financial resources; and building collaborative networks and partnerships. In all these, the role of mindset change is critical. By instilling a positive, collaborative and innovative mindset, rural communities can overcome challenges and chat a path towards sustainable development.

Keywords: community, development, mindset, change

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Authors: Magda Kosmal, Anna A. Kuśnierz, Joanna Rybicka-Łada

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In the case of waste glass cullet, a fully functioning recycling system for individual glass industries was developed, while recycling of cement dust encounters a number of difficulties and is conducted to a limited extent in the packaging and flat glass industry. The aim of the project was to examine the possibility of using dust arising in cement plants in the process of melting various types of glasses. Dust management has a positive effect on the aspect of environmental protection and ecology. Sets have been designed, and the parameters of the melting process have been optimized. Glasses were obtained with the addition of selected cement dust on a laboratory scale, using DTA, XRD, SEM tests, and a gradient furnace was conducted to check the tendency to crystallization.

Keywords: cement dust, crystallization, glass, XRD, SEM

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Authors: Giuliana Scuderi, Patrick Teuffel

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The proven vulnerability of the existing social housing building heritage to natural or induced earthquakes requires the development of new design concepts and conceptual method to preserve materials and object, at the same time providing new performances. An integrate intervention between civil engineering, building physics and architecture can convert the social housing districts from a critical part of the city to a strategic resource of revitalization. Referring to bio-mimicry principles the present research proposes a taxonomy with the exoskeleton of the insect, an external, light and resistant armour whose role is to protect the internal organs from external potentially dangerous inputs. In the same way, a “building exoskeleton”, acting from the outside of the building as an enclosing cage, can restore, protect and support the existing building, assuming a complex set of roles, from the structural to the thermal, from the aesthetical to the functional. This study evaluates the structural efficiency of shape memory alloys devices (SMADs) connecting the “building exoskeleton” with the existing structure to rehabilitate, in order to prevent the out-of-plane collapse of walls and for the passive dissipation of the seismic energy, with a calibrated operability in relation to the intensity of the horizontal loads. The two case studies of a masonry structure and of a masonry structure with concrete frame are considered, and for each case, a theoretical social housing building is exposed to earthquake forces, to evaluate its structural response with or without SMADs. The two typologies are modelled with the finite element program SAP2000, and they are respectively defined through a “frame model” and a “diagonal strut model”. In the same software two types of SMADs, called the 00-10 SMAD and the 05-10 SMAD are defined, and non-linear static and dynamic analyses, namely push over analysis and time history analysis, are performed to evaluate the seismic response of the building. The effectiveness of the devices in limiting the control joint displacements resulted higher in one direction, leading to the consideration of a possible calibrated use of the devices in the different walls of the building. The results show also a higher efficiency of the 00-10 SMADs in controlling the interstory drift, but at the same time the necessity to improve the hysteretic behaviour, to maximise the passive dissipation of the seismic energy.

Keywords: adaptive structure, biomimetic design, building exoskeleton, social housing, structural envelope, structural retrofitting

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Authors: Guoheng Liu, Zhilong Huang

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For more than the past ten years, oil and gas production from marine shale such as the Barnett shale. In addition, in recent years, major breakthroughs have also been made in lacustrine shale gas exploration, such as the Yanchang Formation of the Ordos Basin in China. Lucaogou Formation shale, which is also lacustrine shale, has also yielded a high production in recent years, for wells such as M1, M6, and ML2, yielding a daily oil production of 5.6 tons, 37.4 tons and 13.56 tons, respectively. Lithologic identification and classification of reservoirs are the base and keys to oil and gas exploration. Lithology and lithofacies obviously control the distribution of oil and gas in lithological reservoirs, so it is of great significance to describe characteristics of lithology and lithofacies of reservoirs finely. Lithofacies is an intrinsic property of rock formed under certain conditions of sedimentation. Fine-grained sedimentary rocks such as shale formed under different sedimentary conditions display great particularity and distinctiveness. Hence, to our best knowledge, no constant and unified criteria and methods exist for fine-grained sedimentary rocks regarding lithofacies definition and classification. Consequently, multi-parameters and multi-disciplines are necessary. A series of qualitative descriptions and quantitative analysis were used to figure out the lithofacies characteristics and its effect on oil accumulation of Lucaogou formation fine-grained sedimentary rocks in Santanghu basin. The qualitative description includes core description, petrographic thin section observation, fluorescent thin-section observation, cathode luminescence observation and scanning electron microscope observation. The quantitative analyses include X-ray diffraction, total organic content analysis, ROCK-EVAL.II Methodology, soxhlet extraction, porosity and permeability analysis and oil saturation analysis. Three types of lithofacies were mainly well-developed in this study area, which is organic-rich massive shale lithofacies, organic-rich laminated and cloddy hybrid sedimentary lithofacies and organic-lean massive carbonate lithofacies. Organic-rich massive shale lithofacies mainly include massive shale and tuffaceous shale, of which quartz and clay minerals are the major components. Organic-rich laminated and cloddy hybrid sedimentary lithofacies contain lamina and cloddy structure. Rocks from this lithofacies chiefly consist of dolomite and quartz. Organic-lean massive carbonate lithofacies mainly contains massive bedding fine-grained carbonate rocks, of which fine-grained dolomite accounts for the main part. Organic-rich massive shale lithofacies contain the highest content of free hydrocarbon and solid organic matter. Moreover, more pores were developed in organic-rich massive shale lithofacies. Organic-lean massive carbonate lithofacies contain the lowest content solid organic matter and develop the least amount of pores. Organic-rich laminated and cloddy hybrid sedimentary lithofacies develop the largest number of cracks and fractures. To sum up, organic-rich massive shale lithofacies is the most favorable type of lithofacies. Organic-lean massive carbonate lithofacies is impossible for large scale oil accumulation.

Keywords: lithofacies classification, tuffaceous shale, oil enrichment, Lucaogou formation

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Authors: Minna-Maari Harmaala, Hanna Harilainen

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Estimates of the economic value of transitioning to circular economy models vary but it has been estimated to represent $1 trillion worth of new business into the global economy. In Europe alone, estimates claim that adopting circular-economy principles could not only have environmental and social benefits but also generate a net economic benefit of €1.8 trillion by 2030. Proponents of a circular economy argue that it offers a major opportunity to increase resource productivity, decrease resource dependence and waste, and increase employment and growth. A circular system could improve competitiveness and unleash innovation. Yet, most companies are not capturing these opportunities and thus the even abundant circular opportunities remain uncaptured even though they would seem inherently profitable. Service design in broad terms relates to developing an existing or a new service or service concept with emphasis and focus on the customer experience from the onset of the development process. Service design may even mean starting from scratch and co-creating the service concept entirely with the help of customer involvement. Service design methodologies provide a structured way of incorporating customer understanding and involvement in the process of designing better services with better resonance to customer needs. A business model is a depiction of how the company creates, delivers, and captures value; i.e. how it organizes its business. The process of business model development and adjustment or modification is also called business model innovation. Innovating business models has become a part of business strategy. Our hypothesis is that in addition to linear models still being easier to adopt and often with lower threshold costs, companies lack an understanding of how circular models can be adopted into their business and how customers will be willing and ready to adopt the new circular business models. In our research, we use robust service design methodology to develop circular economy solutions with two case study companies. The aim of the process is to not only develop the service concepts and portfolio, but to demonstrate the willingness to adopt circular solutions exists in the customer base. In addition to service design, we employ business model innovation methods to develop, test, and validate the new circular business models further. The results clearly indicate that amongst the customer groups there are specific customer personas that are willing to adopt and in fact are expecting the companies to take a leading role in the transition towards a circular economy. At the same time, there is a group of indifferents, to whom the idea of circularity provides no added value. In addition, the case studies clearly show what changes adoption of circular economy principles brings to the existing business model and how they can be integrated.

Keywords: business model innovation, circular economy, circular economy business models, service design

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Authors: Hocine Benabid, M. F. Ghorab

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The exploration of open pit mines and quarries has always been important resources that provide many valuable needed minerals but very often accompanied by large amounts of dust rejected into the air and also many other negative environmental impacts. The dust remains suspended in the atmosphere before being deposited on soils, on forest trees, on plants and also on water, causing at long term allergic and respiratory diseases for residents living in the vicinity or even far away from the mines and quarries. As a consequence of this activity, dust can also disturb the photosynthetic activity of plants and affect water quality. It is for these reasons and because of the intensification of these activities that our motivations have become larger to deal with this kind of topic, which is becoming nowadays an environmental and health concern for almost every country in the world.

Keywords: mines, dust, environmental impacts, environmental concern

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Authors: Todor Penchev, Dimitar Karastojanov, Ivan Altaparmakov

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For briquetting of metal chips are used hydraulic and mechanical presses. The density of the briquettes in this case is about 60% - 70 % on the density of solid metal. In this work are presented the results of experimental studies for briquetting of metal chips, by using a new technology for impact briquetting. The used chips are by Armco iron, steel, cast iron, copper, aluminum and brass. It has been found that: (i) in a controlled impact the density of the briquettes can be increases up to 30%; (ii) at the same specific impact energy Es (J/sm3) the density of the briquettes increases with increasing of the impact velocity; (iii), realization of the repeated impact leads to decrease of chips density, which can be explained by distribution of elastic waves in the briquette.

Keywords: briquetting, chips briquetting, impact briquetting, controlled impact

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Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

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The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) are warning signs for future strokes. TIA patients are at increased risk of stroke and cardio-vascular events after a first episode. A majority of studies on TIA focused on the occurrence of these ancillary events after a TIA. Long-term mortality after TIA received only limited attention. We undertook this study to determine the long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a first episode of a TIA using anonymised electronic health records (EHRs). We used a retrospective case-control study using electronic primary health care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Patients born prior to or in year 1960, resident in England, with a first diagnosis of TIA between January 1986 and January 2017 were matched to three controls on age, sex and general medical practice. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The hazards of all-cause mortality were estimated using a time-varying Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a random frailty effect of GP practice. 20,633 cases and 58,634 controls were included. Cases aged 39 to 60 years at the first TIA event had the highest hazard ratio (HR) of mortality compared to matched controls (HR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.91 - 3.18)). The HRs for cases aged 61-70 years, 71-76 years and 77+ years were 1.98 (1.55 - 2.30), 1.79 (1.20 - 2.07) and 1.52 (1.15 - 1.97) compared to matched controls. Aspirin provided long-term survival benefits to cases. Cases aged 39-60 years on aspirin had HR of 0.93 (0.84 - 1.00), 0.90 (0.82 - 0.98) and 0.88 (0.80 - 0.96) at 5 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively, compared to cases in the same age group who were not on antiplatelets. Similar beneficial effects of aspirin were observed in other age groups. There were no significant survival benefits with other antiplatelet options. No survival benefits of antiplatelet drugs were observed in controls. Our study highlights the excess long-term risk of death of TIA patients and cautions that TIA should not be treated as a benign condition. The study further recommends aspirin as the better option for secondary prevention for TIA patients compared to clopidogrel recommended by NICE guidelines. Management of risk factors and treatment strategies should be important challenges to reduce the burden of disease.

Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), General Practice, Multiple Imputation, The Health Improvement Network(THIN), hazard ratio (HR), Weibull-Cox model

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Authors: Shoba Rathilal

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Numeracy, like Literacy is considered to be a core value of modern societies. Most higher education institutions in South Africa include being numerate as an important graduate attribute. It is argued that a suitability numerate society contributes to social justice, empowerment, financial and environmental sustainability and a lack of numeracy practices can contribute to disempowerment. Numeracy is commonly misconstrued as a basic and simple practice, similar in nature to basic arithmetic. This study highlights the complexities of higher education numeracy practices by analyzing a programme in a higher education institution in South Africa using the New Literacies Studies perspective.

Keywords: higher education, new literacy studies, numeracy practices, BASIC

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Authors: Piotr Jerzy Rugor, Julia Wajoras

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The presented work regards a single-stage aerodynamically controlled solid propulsion rocket. Steering a rocket to fly along a predetermined trajectory can be beneficial for minimizing aerodynamic losses and achieved by implementing an active control system on board. In this particular case, a canard configuration has been chosen, although other methods of control have been considered and preemptively analyzed, including non-aerodynamic ones. The objective of this work is to create a system capable of guiding the rocket, focusing on roll stabilization. The paper describes initial analysis of the problem, covers the main challenges of missile guidance and presents data acquired during the experimental study.

Keywords: active canard control system, rocket design, numerical simulations, flight optimization

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Authors: Fateme Aysin Anka, Farzad Kiani

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Forced migration is a situation in which people are forced to leave their homes against their will due to political conflicts, wars and conflicts, natural disasters, climate change, economic crises, or other emergencies. This type of migration takes place under conditions where people cannot lead a sustainable life due to reasons such as security, shelter and meeting their basic needs. This type of migration may occur in connection with different factors that affect people's living conditions. In addition to these general and widespread reasons, water security and resources will be one that is starting now and will be encountered more and more in the future. Forced migration may occur due to insufficient or depleted water resources in the areas where people live. In this case, people's living conditions become unsustainable, and they may have to go elsewhere, as they cannot obtain their basic needs, such as drinking water, water used for agriculture and industry. To cope with these situations, it is important to minimize the causes, as international organizations and societies must provide assistance (for example, humanitarian aid, shelter, medical support and education) and protection to address (or mitigate) this problem. From the international perspective, plans such as the Green New Deal (GND) and the European Green Deal (EGD) draw attention to the need for people to live equally in a cleaner and greener world. Especially recently, with the advancement of technology, science and methods have become more efficient. In this regard, in this article, a multidisciplinary case model is presented by reinforcing the water problem with an engineering approach within the framework of the social dimension. It is worth emphasizing that this problem is largely linked to climate change and the lack of a sustainable water management perspective. As a matter of fact, the United Nations Development Agency (UNDA) draws attention to this problem in its universally accepted sustainable development goals. Therefore, an artificial intelligence-based approach has been applied to solve this problem by focusing on the water management problem. The most general but also important aspect in the management of water resources is its correct consumption. In this context, the artificial intelligence-based system undertakes tasks such as water demand forecasting and distribution management, emergency and crisis management, water pollution detection and prevention, and maintenance and repair control and forecasting.

Keywords: water resource management, forced migration, multidisciplinary studies, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Lin Zou

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This paper explores how the development of science and technology in the recent decades has created new conditions for literature and aesthetics. These are epistemological conditions that not only offer empirical understandings of the human mentality, behavior, emotions, and humanity in general, but reshape how value and the ontological questions are understood and linked with humanity. This paper will discuss the implications of these epistemological conditions for the depiction and interpretation of human subjectivity in literature. The paper will first seek to present the argument that science and technology have created new conditions for literature and aesthetics. It then outlines the implications of these new conditions for literature and aesthetics. The main methodologies used are close reading and case studies.

Keywords: epistemological conditions, literature and aesthetics, science and technology, subjectivity

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Authors: Chrysoula Bousiouta

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Throughout the history of theatre, technology has played an important role both in influencing the relationship between performance and audience and offering different kinds of experiences. The use of technology dates back in ancient times, when the introduction of artifacts, such as “Deus ex machine” in ancient Greek theatre, started. Taking into account the key techniques and experiences used throughout history, this paper investigates how technology, through new media, influences contemporary theatre. In the context of this research, technology is defined as projections, audio environments, video-projections, sensors, tele-connections, all alongside with the performance, challenging audience’s participation. The theoretical framework of the research covers, except for the history of theatre, the theory of “experience economy” that took over the service and goods economy. The research is based on the qualitative and comparative analysis of two case studies, Contact Theatre in Manchester (United Kingdom) and Bios in Athens (Greece). The data selection includes desk research and is complemented with semi structured interviews. Building on the results of the research one could claim that the intended experience of modern/contemporary theatre is that of engagement. In this context, technology -as defined above- plays a leading role in creating it. This experience passes through and exists in the middle of the realms of entertainment, education, estheticism and escapism. Furthermore, it is observed that nowadays, theatre is not only about acting but also about performing; it is that one where the performances are unfinished without the participation of the audience. Both case studies try to achieve the experience of engagement through practices that promote the attraction of attention, the increase of imagination, the interaction, the intimacy and the true activity. These practices are achieved through the script, the scenery, the language and the environment of a performance. Contact and Bios consider technology as an intimate tool in order to accomplish the above, and they make an extended use of it. The research completes a notable record of technological techniques that modern theatres use. The use of technology, inside or outside the limits of film technique’s, helps to rivet the attention of the audience, to make performances enjoyable, to give the sense of the “unfinished” or to be used for things that take place around the spectators and force them to take action, being spect-actors. The advantage of technology is that it can be used as a hook for interaction in all stages of a performance. Further research on the field could involve exploring alternative ways of binding technology and theatre or analyzing how the performance is perceived through the use of technological artifacts.

Keywords: experience of engagement, interactive theatre, modern theatre, performance, technology

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Authors: Ki-Cheong Yoo, Yushik Han, Heejeung Sohn, Jinwoo Kim

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A ground collapse can be caused by natural and artificial factors. Ground collapses that have occurred frequently in Korea were observed and classified into different types by the main contributing factor. In this study, ground collapse induced by groundwater level disturbance in an excavation site was analyzed. Also, ground loosening region around the excavation site was detected and analyzed using non-destructive testing, such as GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) survey and Electrical Resistivity. The result of the surveys showed that the ground was loosened widely over the surrounding area of the excavation due to groundwater discharge.

Keywords: electrical resistivity, ground collapse, groundwater level, GPR (ground penetrating radar)

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Authors: Reyhane Hamed Kamran

Abstract:

Early stage morphogenesis requires the execution of complex systems that direct the nearby conduct of gatherings of cells. The organization of such instruments has been, for the most part, deciphered through the recognizable proof of moderated groups of flagging pathways that spatially and transiently control cell conduct. In any case, how this data is handled to control cell shape and cell elements is an open territory of examination. The structure that rises up out of differing controls, for example, cell science, material science, and formative science, focuses to bond and cortical actin arranges as controllers of cell surface mechanics. In this specific circumstance, a scope of formative marvels can be clarified by the guideline of cell surface pressure.

Keywords: cell, tissue damage, morphogenesis, cell conduct

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Authors: Narin Salehiyan

Abstract:

Early stage morphogenesis requires the execution of complex systems that direct the nearby conduct of gatherings of cells. The organization of such instruments has been, for the most part, deciphered through the recognizable proof of moderated groups of flagging pathways that spatially and transiently control cell conduct. In any case, how this data is handled to control cell shape and cell elements is an open territory of examination. The structure that rises up out of differing controls, for example, cell science, material science and formative science, focuses to bond and cortical actin arranges as controllers of cell surface mechanics. In this specific circumstance, a scope of formative marvels can be clarified by the guideline of cell surface pressure.

Keywords: cell, tissue damage, morphogenesis, cell conduct

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Authors: Krystyna Golkowska

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Recent years have witnessed rapid growth of Transnational Education (TNE), especially in Asia and the Middle East. Exporting North American curricula into different socio-cultural contexts brings with it numerous advantages as well as challenges that have yet to be fully explored. This article focuses on Foundation programs, bridge programs between local high schools and tertiary level education on North-American branch campuses in the Persian Gulf. Based on a case study of Foundation students in Qatar, it explores ways of preparing TNE students for academic success by helping them to develop not only their skills and subject knowledge but also their academic identity.

Keywords: academic identity, foundation program, gulf, transnational education

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Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the post mortem interval or PMI. Three days after the death, insect evidence is often the most accurate and sometimes the only method of determining elapsed time since death. This work presents the estimation of the PMI in an experiment to test the reliability of the accumulated degree days (ADD) method and the application of this method in a real case. The study was conducted at the Laboratory of Entomology at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie, Algeria. The domestic rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus L. was selected as the animal model. On 08th July 2012, the animal was killed. Larvae were collected and raised to adulthood. Estimation of oviposition time was calculated by summing up average daily temperatures minus minimum development temperature (also specific to each species). When the sum is reached, it corresponds to the oviposition day. Weather data were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. After rearing was accomplished, three species emerged: Lucilia sericata, Chrysomya albiceps, and Sarcophaga africa. For Chrysomya albiceps species, a cumulation of 186°C is necessary. The emergence of adults occured on 22nd July 2012. A value of 193.4°C is reached on 9th August 2012. Lucilia sericata species require a cumulation of 207°C. The emergence of adults occurred on 23rd, July 2012. A value of 211.35°C is reached on 9th August 2012. We should also consider that oviposition may occur more than 12 hours after death. Thus, the obtained PMI is in agreement with the actual time of death. We illustrate the use of this method during the investigation of a case of a decaying human body found on 03rd March 2015 in Bechar, South West of Algerian desert. Maggots were collected and sent to the Laboratory of Entomology. Lucilia sericata adults were identified on 24th March 2015 after emergence. A sum of 211.6°C was reached on 1st March 2015 which corresponds to the estimated day of oviposition. Therefore, the estimated date of death is 1st March 2015 ± 24 hours. The estimated PMI by accumulated degree days (ADD) method seems to be very precise. Entomological evidence should always be used in homicide investigations when the time of death cannot be determined by other methods.

Keywords: forensic entomology, accumulated degree days, postmortem interval, diptera, Algeria

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Authors: Geraldine Molina, Malou Allagnat

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Entry through meteorological and climatic phenomena, technical knowledge and engineering sciences has long been favored by the research and local public action to analyze the urban climate, develop strategies to reduce its changes and adapt their spaces. However, in their daily practices and sensitive experiences, city dwellers are confronted with the climate and constantly deal with its fluctuations. In this way, these actors develop knowledge, skills and tactics to regulate their comfort and adapt to climatic variations. Therefore, the empirical observation and analysis of these living experiences represent major scientific and social challenges. This contribution proposes to question these relationships of the inhabitants to urban climate. It tackles the construction of inhabitants’ climatic experiences to answer a central question: how do city dwellers’ deal with the urban climate and adapt to its different variations? Indeed, the city raises the question of how populations adapt to different spatial and temporal climatic variations. Local impacts of global climate change are combined with the urban heat island phenomenon and other microclimatic effects, as well as seasonal, daytime and night-time fluctuations. To provide answers, the presentation will be focused on the results of a CNRS research project (Géraldine Molina), part of which is linked to the European project Nature For Cities (H2020, Marjorie Musy, Scientific Director). From a theoretical point of view, the contribution is based on a renewed definition of adaptation centered on the capacity of individuals and social groups, a recently opened entry from a theoretical point of view by social scientists. The research adopts a "radical interdisciplinary" approach to shed light on the links between social dynamics of climate (inhabitants’ perceptions, representations and practices) and physical processes that characterize urban climate. To do so, it relied on a methodological combination of different survey techniques borrowed from the social sciences (geography, anthropology, sociology) and linked to the work, methodologies and results of the engineering sciences. From 2016 to 2019, a survey was carried out in two districts of Lyon whose morphological, micro-climatic and social characteristics differ greatly, namely the 6th arrondissement and the Guillotière district. To explore the construction of climate experiences over the long term by putting it into perspective with the life trajectories of individuals, 70 semi-directive interviews were conducted with inhabitants. In order to also punctually survey the climate experiments as they unfold in a given time and moment, observation and measurement campaigns of physical phenomena and questionnaires have been conducted in public spaces by an interdisciplinary research team1. The contribution at the ICUC 2020 will mainly focus on the presentation of the presentation of the qualitative survey conducted thanks to the inhabitants’ interviews.

Keywords: sensitive experiences, ways of life, thermal comfort, radical interdisciplinarity

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