Search results for: alternative scenario improvements
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5836

Search results for: alternative scenario improvements

1966 Ant Lion Optimization in a Fuzzy System for Benchmark Control Problem

Authors: Leticia Cervantes, Edith Garcia, Oscar Castillo

Abstract:

At today, there are several control problems where the main objective is to obtain the best control in the study to decrease the error in the application. Many techniques can use to control these problems such as Neural Networks, PID control, Fuzzy Logic, Optimization techniques and many more. In this case, fuzzy logic with fuzzy system and an optimization technique are used to control the case of study. In this case, Ant Lion Optimization is used to optimize a fuzzy system to control the velocity of a simple treadmill. The main objective is to achieve the control of the velocity in the control problem using the ALO optimization. First, a simple fuzzy system was used to control the velocity of the treadmill it has two inputs (error and error change) and one output (desired speed), then results were obtained but to decrease the error the ALO optimization was developed to optimize the fuzzy system of the treadmill. Having the optimization, the simulation was performed, and results can prove that using the ALO optimization the control of the velocity was better than a conventional fuzzy system. This paper describes some basic concepts to help to understand the idea in this work, the methodology of the investigation (control problem, fuzzy system design, optimization), the results are presented and the optimization is used for the fuzzy system. A comparison between the simple fuzzy system and the optimized fuzzy systems are presented where it can be proving the optimization improved the control with good results the major findings of the study is that ALO optimization is a good alternative to improve the control because it helped to decrease the error in control applications even using any control technique to optimized, As a final statement is important to mentioned that the selected methodology was good because the control of the treadmill was improve using the optimization technique.

Keywords: ant lion optimization, control problem, fuzzy control, fuzzy system

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1965 Fusing Mentorship, Leadership and Empowerment Among Young Women In STEM

Authors: Anne Bubriski

Abstract:

Despite improvements in gender inequalities, women and girls continue to face glass ceilings, underrepresentation, and harmful stereotypes that can limit their aspirations and opportunities in STEM. While girls are taking similar high school math and science classes, boys are more likely to take physics and six times more likely to take an engineering course. The gap becomes even larger for minority or low-income girls. This gender gap is not due to biology; rather, it is due to cultural, social, and institutional forces. As girls get older, these forces often ‘teach’ them ‘STEM is more for boys’. The STEM gender gap widens in college, with only 20% of engineering degrees being awarded to women, and by the time women enter the workforce, they only occupy about 13% of engineering jobs. At the University of Central Florida, the Women’s and Gender Studies Program has developed a unique mentoring program to address these issues, Science Leadership and Mentoring (SLAM). What is unique about the approach of SLAM is that we look to address this problem through leadership and STEM. We look to help girls make connections between leadership and STEM—that young women can be leaders as scientists and that scientists are leaders making a change. This is particularly needed and relevant to our community because while there are mentoring programs to our knowledge, SLAM is one of the only, if not only, mentoring programs pairing college women and 7th-grade girls that includes a focus both on STEM and leadership in the United States. SLAM is a curriculum-based mentoring program pairing one 7th-grade girl with one UCF undergraduate STEM major. SLAM empowers young women to be assertive, brave, confident, independent, inquisitive and proud leaders in STEM. SLAM seeks to promote young women’s inspiration and excitement into STEM fields and careers while also building leadership abilities such as problem-solving, teamwork and cooperation, cultural identity and ethnic pride, advocacy for positive change, and goals for the future. SLAM serves about fifteen 7th-grade girls for the academic year and about 20 UCF students. SLAM holds weekly mentoring meetings lasting about 90 minutes, covering topics on leadership, STEM majors and careers, and STEM leadership. This past year, SLAM received a Community Action Grant from the American Association of University Women (AAUW) to run a sub-program, SLAM-Space. SLAM-Space focused on exposing SLAM participants to aerospace engineering and other space-related STEM fields, such as physics and astronomy, through guest speakers, workshops and field trips, including the Kenndy Space Center. The proposed paper presentation will present an overview of SLAM-Space and the data findings from pre and post-surveys, in-depth interviews and focus groups from the SLAM participants' experiences in the program.

Keywords: gender, leadership, STEM, empowerment

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1964 Investigation of the Usability of Biochars Obtained from Olive Pomace and Smashed Olive Seeds as Additives for Bituminous Binders

Authors: Muhammed Ertugrul Celoglu, Beyza Furtana, Mehmet Yilmaz, Baha Vural Kok

Abstract:

Biomass, which is considered to be one of the largest renewable energy sources in the world, has a potential to be utilized as a bitumen additive after it is processed by a wide variety of thermochemical methods. Furthermore, biomasses are renewable in short amounts of time, and they possess a hydrocarbon structure. These characteristics of biomass promote their usability as additives. One of the most common ways to create materials with significant economic values from biomasses is the processes of pyrolysis. Pyrolysis is defined as the process of an organic matter’s thermochemical degradation (carbonization) at a high temperature and in an anaerobic environment. The resultant liquid substance at the end of the pyrolysis is defined as bio-oil, whereas the resultant solid substance is defined as biochar. Olive pomace is the resultant mildly oily pulp with seeds after olive is pressed and its oil is extracted. It is a significant source of biomass as the waste of olive oil factories. Because olive pomace is waste material, it could create problems just as other waste unless there are appropriate and acceptable areas of utilization. The waste material, which is generated in large amounts, is generally used as fuel and fertilizer. Generally, additive materials are used in order to improve the properties of bituminous binders, and these are usually expensive materials, which are produced chemically. The aim of this study is to investigate the usability of biochars obtained after subjecting olive pomace and smashed olive seeds, which are considered as waste materials, to pyrolysis as additives in bitumen modification. In this way, various ways of use will be provided for waste material, providing both economic and environmental benefits. In this study, olive pomace and smashed olive seeds were used as sources of biomass. Initially, both materials were ground and processed through a No.50 sieve. Both of the sieved materials were subjected to pyrolysis (carbonization) at 400 ℃. Following the process of pyrolysis, bio-oil and biochar were obtained. The obtained biochars were added to B160/220 grade pure bitumen at 10% and 15% rates and modified bitumens were obtained by mixing them in high shear mixtures at 180 ℃ for 1 hour at 2000 rpm. Pure bitumen and four different types of bitumen obtained as a result of the modifications were tested with penetration, softening point, rotational viscometer, and dynamic shear rheometer, evaluating the effects of additives and the ratios of additives. According to the test results obtained, both biochar modifications at both ratios provided improvements in the performance of pure bitumen. In the comparison of the test results of the binders modified with the biochars of olive pomace and smashed olive seed, it was revealed that there was no notable difference in their performances.

Keywords: bituminous binders, biochar, biomass, olive pomace, pomace, pyrolysis

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1963 The Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio after Surgery for Hip Fracture in a New, Simple, and Objective Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality

Authors: Philippe Dillien, Patrice Forget, Harald Engel, Olivier Cornu, Marc De Kock, Jean Cyr Yombi

Abstract:

Introduction: Hip fracture precedes commonly death in elderly people. Identification of high-risk patients may contribute to target patients in whom optimal management, resource allocation and trials efficiency is needed. The aim of this study is to construct a predictive score of mortality after hip fracture on the basis of the objective prognostic factors available: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, and sex. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), is also considered as an alternative to the NLR. Patients and methods: After the IRB approval, we analyzed our prospective database including 286 consecutive patients with hip fracture. A score was constructed combining age (1 point per decade above 74 years), sex (1 point for males), and NLR at postoperative day+5 (1 point if >5). A receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: From the 286 patients included, 235 were analyzed (72 males and 163 females, 30.6%/69.4%), with a median age of 84 (range: 65 to 102) years, mean NLR values of 6.47+/-6.07. At one year, 82/280 patients died (29.3%). Graphical analysis and log-rank test confirm a highly statistically significant difference (P<0.001). Performance analysis shows an AUC of 0.72 [95%CI 0.65-0.79]. CRP shows no advantage on NLR. Conclusion: We have developed a score based on age, sex and the NLR to predict the risk of mortality at one year in elderly patients after surgery for a hip fracture. After external validation, it may be included in clinical practice as in clinical research to stratify the risk of postoperative mortality.

Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hip fracture, postoperative mortality, medical and health sciences

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1962 Investigate the Mechanical Effect of Different Root Analogue Models to Soil Strength

Authors: Asmaa Al Shafiee, Erdin Ibraim

Abstract:

Stabilizing slopes by using vegetation is considered as a cost-effective and eco-friendly alternative to the conventional methods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the mechanical effect of analogue root systems on the shear strength of different soil types. Three objectives were defined to achieve the main aim of this paper. Firstly, explore the effect of root architectural design to shear strength parameters. Secondly, study the effect of root area ratio (RAR) on the shear strength of two different soil types. Finally, to investigate how different kinds of soil can affect the behavior of the roots during shear failure. 3D printing tool was used to develop different analogue tap root models with different architectural designs. Direct shear tests were performed on Leighton Buzzard (LB) fraction B sand, which represents a coarse sand and Huston sand, which represent medium-coarse sand. All tests were done with the same relative density for both kinds of sand. The results of the direct shear test indicated that using plant roots will increase both friction angle and cohesion of soil. Additionally, different root designs affected differently the shear strength of the soil. Furthermore, the directly proportional relationship was found between root area ratio for the same root design and shear strength parameters of soil. Finally, the root area ratio effect should be combined with branches penetrating the shear plane to get the highest results.

Keywords: leighton buzzard sand, root area ratio, rooted soil, shear strength, slope stabilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
1961 Computational Analysis of Cavity Effect over Aircraft Wing

Authors: P. Booma Devi, Dilip A. Shah

Abstract:

This paper seeks the potentials of studying aerodynamic characteristics of inward cavities called dimples, as an alternative to the classical vortex generators. Increasing stalling angle is a greater challenge in wing design. But our examination is primarily focused on increasing lift. In this paper, enhancement of lift is mainly done by introduction of dimple or cavity in a wing. In general, aircraft performance can be enhanced by increasing aerodynamic efficiency that is lift to drag ratio of an aircraft wing. Efficiency improvement can be achieved by improving the maximum lift co-efficient or by reducing the drag co-efficient. At the time of landing aircraft, high angle of attack may lead to stalling of aircraft. To avoid this kind of situation, increase in the stalling angle is warranted. Hence, improved stalling characteristic is the best way to ease landing complexity. Computational analysis is done for the wing segment made of NACA 0012. Simulation is carried out for 30 m/s free stream velocity over plain airfoil and different types of cavities. The wing is modeled in CATIA V5R20 and analyses are carried out using ANSYS CFX. Triangle and square shapes are used as cavities for analysis. Simulations revealed that cavity placed on wing segment shows an increase of maximum lift co-efficient when compared to normal wing configuration. Flow separation is delayed at downstream of the wing by the presence of cavities up to a particular angle of attack.

Keywords: lift, drag reduce, square dimple, triangle dimple, enhancement of stall angle

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1960 Exploring a Net-Metering Policy Towards Solar Energy Technology Adoption and Sustainability

Authors: Jane Osei, Kerry Brown, Mehran Nejati

Abstract:

Numerous studies have established that solar energy is the second most prevalent form of alternative renewable energy globally, particularly in regions with abundant sunlight. The adoption and ongoing sustainability of solar technology are pivotal for the transition to renewable energy sources. However, the literature indicates that some countries, especially in the developing world, may impede this transition. Despite various policy initiatives aimed at supporting the adoption of solar technology, the long-term effectiveness of these policies remains uncertain. This study investigates the current policy drivers influencing the success or failure of solar energy technology adoption and sustainability. It employs a qualitative review approach to compare strategies for implementing the net-metering policy incentive in both developing and developed countries, identifying successful and unsuccessful strategies and drawing conclusions on the lessons learned. The study's findings reveal that the effective implementation of net metering depends on regional variations in solar radiation and differing levels of electricity demand across regions. Further, the study found that the implementation of net metering has faced challenges in some countries due to regulatory barriers and bottlenecks that hinder private sector involvement and business sustainability. Economic stability also significantly impacts net metering implementation. This study concludes that governments should strive to balance benefit-sharing to attract more private-sector investment in solar technology while ensuring the viability of government energy regulatory bodies.

Keywords: solar energy technology, adoption, sustainability, net-metering

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1959 An As-Is Analysis and Approach for Updating Building Information Models and Laser Scans

Authors: Rene Hellmuth

Abstract:

Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring of the factory building is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A building information model (BIM) is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable data repository to be able to react quickly to changes. Use as a planning basis for restructuring measures in factories only succeeds if the BIM model has adequate data quality. Under this aspect and the industrial requirement, three data quality factors are particularly important for this paper regarding the BIM model: up-to-dateness, completeness, and correctness. The research question is: how can a BIM model be kept up to date with required data quality and which visualization techniques can be applied in a short period of time on the construction site during conversion measures? An as-is analysis is made of how BIM models and digital factory models (including laser scans) are currently being kept up to date. Industrial companies are interviewed, and expert interviews are conducted. Subsequently, the results are evaluated, and a procedure conceived how cost-effective and timesaving updating processes can be carried out. The availability of low-cost hardware and the simplicity of the process are of importance to enable service personnel from facility mnagement to keep digital factory models (BIM models and laser scans) up to date. The approach includes the detection of changes to the building, the recording of the changing area, and the insertion into the overall digital twin. Finally, an overview of the possibilities for visualizations suitable for construction sites is compiled. An augmented reality application is created based on an updated BIM model of a factory and installed on a tablet. Conversion scenarios with costs and time expenditure are displayed. A user interface is designed in such a way that all relevant conversion information is available at a glance for the respective conversion scenario. A total of three essential research results are achieved: As-is analysis of current update processes for BIM models and laser scans, development of a time-saving and cost-effective update process and the conception and implementation of an augmented reality solution for BIM models suitable for construction sites.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

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1958 Radical Degradation of Acetaminophen with Peroxymonosulfate-Based Oxidation Processes

Authors: Chaoqun Tan, Naiyun Gao, Xiaoyan Xin

Abstract:

Perxymonosulfate (PMS)-based oxidation processes, as an alternative of hydrogen peroxide-based oxidation processes, are more and more popular because of reactive radical species (SO4-•, OH•) produced in systems. Magnetic nano-scaled particles Fe3O4 and ferrous anion (Fe2+) were studied for the activation of PMS for degradation of acetaminophen (APAP) in water. The Fe3O4 MNPs were found to effectively catalyze PMS for APAP and the reactions well followed a pseudo-first-order kinetics pattern (R2>0.95). While the degradation of APAP in PMS-Fe2+ system proceeds through two stages: a fast stage and a much slower stage. Within 5 min, approximately 7% and 18% of 10 ppm APAP was accomplished by 0.2 mM PMS in Fe3O4 (0.8g/L) and Fe2+ (0.1mM) activation process. However, as reaction proceed to 120 min, approximately 75% and 35% of APAP was removed in Fe3O4 activation process and Fe2+ activation process, respectively. Within 120 min, the mineralization of APAP was about 7.5% and 5.0% (initial APAP of 10 ppm and [PMS]0 of 0.2 mM) in Fe3O4-PMS and Fe2+-PMS system, while the mineralization could be greatly increased to about 31% and 40% as [PMS]0 increased to 2.0 mM in in Fe3O4-PMS and Fe2+-PMS system, respectively. At last, the production of reactive radical species were validated directly from Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (ESR) tests with 0.1 M 5,5-Dimethyl-1-pyrrolidine N-oxide (DMPO). Plausible mechanisms on the radical generation from Fe3O4 and Fe2+ activation of PMS are proposed on the results of radial identification tests. The results demonstrated that Fe3O4 MNPs activated PMS and Fe2+ anion activated PMS systems are promising technologies for water pollution caused by contaminants such as pharmaceutical. Fe3O4-PMS system is more suitable for slowly remediation, while Fe2+-PMS system is more suitable for fast remediation.

Keywords: acetaminophen, peroxymonosulfate, radicals, Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (ESR)

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1957 Designing and Prototyping Permanent Magnet Generators for Wind Energy

Authors: T. Asefi, J. Faiz, M. A. Khan

Abstract:

This paper introduces dual rotor axial flux machines with surface mounted and spoke type ferrite permanent magnets with concentrated windings; they are introduced as alternatives to a generator with surface mounted Nd-Fe-B magnets. The output power, voltage, speed and air gap clearance for all the generators are identical. The machine designs are optimized for minimum mass using a population-based algorithm, assuming the same efficiency as the Nd-Fe-B machine. A finite element analysis (FEA) is applied to predict the performance, emf, developed torque, cogging torque, no load losses, leakage flux and efficiency of both ferrite generators and that of the Nd-Fe-B generator. To minimize cogging torque, different rotor pole topologies and different pole arc to pole pitch ratios are investigated by means of 3D FEA. It was found that the surface mounted ferrite generator topology is unable to develop the nominal electromagnetic torque, and has higher torque ripple and is heavier than the spoke type machine. Furthermore, it was shown that the spoke type ferrite permanent magnet generator has favorable performance and could be an alternative to rare-earth permanent magnet generators, particularly in wind energy applications. Finally, the analytical and numerical results are verified using experimental results.

Keywords: axial flux, permanent magnet generator, dual rotor, ferrite permanent magnet generator, finite element analysis, wind turbines, cogging torque, population-based algorithms

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1956 Spatial Direct Numerical Simulation of Instability Waves in Hypersonic Boundary Layers

Authors: Jayahar Sivasubramanian

Abstract:

Understanding laminar-turbulent transition process in hyper-sonic boundary layers is crucial for designing viable high speed flight vehicles. The study of transition becomes particularly important in the high speed regime due to the effect of transition on aerodynamic performance and heat transfer. However, even after many years of research, the transition process in hyper-sonic boundary layers is still not understood. This lack of understanding of the physics of the transition process is a major impediment to the development of reliable transition prediction methods. Towards this end, spatial Direct Numerical Simulations are conducted to investigate the instability waves generated by a localized disturbance in a hyper-sonic flat plate boundary layer. In order to model a natural transition scenario, the boundary layer was forced by a short duration (localized) pulse through a hole on the surface of the flat plate. The pulse disturbance developed into a three-dimensional instability wave packet which consisted of a wide range of disturbance frequencies and wave numbers. First, the linear development of the wave packet was studied by forcing the flow with low amplitude (0.001% of the free-stream velocity). The dominant waves within the resulting wave packet were identified as two-dimensional second mode disturbance waves. Hence the wall-pressure disturbance spectrum exhibited a maximum at the span wise mode number k = 0. The spectrum broadened in downstream direction and the lower frequency first mode oblique waves were also identified in the spectrum. However, the peak amplitude remained at k = 0 which shifted to lower frequencies in the downstream direction. In order to investigate the nonlinear transition regime, the flow was forced with a higher amplitude disturbance (5% of the free-stream velocity). The developing wave packet grows linearly at first before reaching the nonlinear regime. The wall pressure disturbance spectrum confirmed that the wave packet developed linearly at first. The response of the flow to the high amplitude pulse disturbance indicated the presence of a fundamental resonance mechanism. Lower amplitude secondary peaks were also identified in the disturbance wave spectrum at approximately half the frequency of the high amplitude frequency band, which would be an indication of a sub-harmonic resonance mechanism. The disturbance spectrum indicates, however, that fundamental resonance is much stronger than sub-harmonic resonance.

Keywords: boundary layer, DNS, hyper sonic flow, instability waves, wave packet

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1955 Guarding the Fortress: Intellectual Property Rights and the European Union’s Cross-Border Jurisdiction

Authors: Sara Vora (Hoxha)

Abstract:

The present article delves into the intricate matters concerning Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and cross-border jurisdiction within the confines of the European Union (EU). The prevalence of cross-border intellectual property rights (IPR) disputes has increased in tandem with the globalization of commerce and the widespread adoption of technology. The European Union (EU) is not immune to this trend. The manuscript presents a comprehensive analysis of various forms of intellectual property rights (IPR), such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights, and the regulatory framework established by the European Union (EU) to oversee these rights. The present article examines the diverse approaches employed for ascertaining the appropriate jurisdiction within the European Union (EU), and their potential application in the sphere of cross-border intellectual property rights (IPR) conflicts. The article sheds light on jurisdictional issues and outcomes of significant cross-border intellectual property rights (IPR) disputes in the European Union (EU). Additionally, the document provides suggestions for effectively managing intellectual property rights conflicts across borders within the European Union, which encompasses the utilization of alternative methods for resolving disputes. The article highlights the significance of comprehending the relevant jurisdiction in the European Union for Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). It also offers optimal approaches for enterprises and individuals who aim to safeguard their intellectual property beyond national boundaries. The primary objective of this article is to furnish a thorough comprehension of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and the relevant jurisdiction in the European Union (EU). Additionally, it endeavors to provide pragmatic recommendations for managing cross-border IPR conflicts in this intricate and ever-changing legal milieu.

Keywords: intellectual property rights (IPR), cross-border jurisdiction, applicable laws and regulations, dispute resolution, best practices

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1954 The Effect of Wool Mulch on Plant Development in the Light of Soil Physical and Soil Biological Conditions

Authors: Katalin Juhos, Enikő Papdi, Flórián Kovács, Vasileios P. Vasileiadis, Andrea Veres

Abstract:

Mulching techniques can be a solution for better utilization of precipitation and irrigation water and for mitigating soil degradation and drought damages. Waste fibres as alternative biodegradable mulch materials are increasingly coming to the fore. The effect of wool mulch (WM) on water use efficiency of pepper seedlings were investigated in different soil types (sand, clay loam, peat) in a pot experiment. Two semi-field experiments were also set up to investigate the effect of WM-plant interaction on sweet pepper yield in comparison with agro-textile and straw mulches. Soil parameters (moisture, temperature, DHA, β-glucosidase enzymes, permanganate-oxidizable carbon) were measured during the growing season. The effect of WM on yield and biomass was more significant with less frequent irrigation and the greater the water capacity of soils. The microbiological activity was significantly higher in the presence of plants, because of the water retention of WM, the metabolic products of roots and the more balanced soil temperature caused by plants. On the sandy soil, the straw mulch had a significantly better effect on microbiological parameters and yields than the agro-textile and WM. WM is a sustainable practice for improving soil biological parameters and water use efficiency on soils with a higher water capacity.

Keywords: β-glucosidase, DHA enzyme activity; labile carbon, straw mulch; plastic mulch, evapotranspira-tion coefficient, soil temperature

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1953 Constraining the Potential Nickel Laterite Area Using Geographic Information System-Based Multi-Criteria Rating in Surigao Del Sur

Authors: Reiner-Ace P. Mateo, Vince Paolo F. Obille

Abstract:

The traditional method of classifying the potential mineral resources requires a significant amount of time and money. In this paper, an alternative way to classify potential mineral resources with GIS application in Surigao del Sur. The three (3) analog map data inputs integrated to GIS are geologic map, topographic map, and land cover/vegetation map. The indicators used in the classification of potential nickel laterite integrated from the analog map data inputs are a geologic indicator, which is the presence of ultramafic rock from the geologic map; slope indicator and the presence of plateau edges from the topographic map; areas of forest land, grassland, and shrublands from the land cover/vegetation map. The potential mineral of the area was classified from low up to very high potential. The produced mineral potential classification map of Surigao del Sur has an estimated 4.63% low nickel laterite potential, 42.15% medium nickel laterite potential, 43.34% high nickel laterite potential, and 9.88% very high nickel laterite from its ultramafic terrains. For the validation of the produced map, it was compared with known occurrences of nickel laterite in the area using a nickel mining tenement map from the area with the application of remote sensing. Three (3) prominent nickel mining companies were delineated in the study area. The generated potential classification map of nickel-laterite in Surigao Del Sur may be of aid to the mining companies which are currently in the exploration phase in the study area. Also, the currently operating nickel mines in the study area can help to validate the reliability of the mineral classification map produced.

Keywords: mineral potential classification, nickel laterites, GIS, remote sensing, Surigao del Sur

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
1952 Ex Vivo Permeation Comparison Study of Flurbiprofen from Nanoparticles through Human Skin

Authors: Sheimah El Bejjaji, Lara Gorsek, Chandler Quilchez, Joaquim Suñer, Mireia Mallandrich

Abstract:

Flurbiprofen is an anti-inflammatory drug used in several treatments. The purpose of this study was to compare the permeation of two different formulations of flurbiprofen through the human skin. The first formulation was a solution of flurbiprofen dissolved with polyethylene glycol 3350 (PEG 3350). The second formulation was flurbiprofen encapsulated in poly-ɛ-caprolactone (PɛCL) nanoparticles (NPs), stabilized with poloxamer 188, submitted individually for freeze-drying with PEG 3350 as a cryoprotectant and sterilized by gamma-irradiation. Human skin was obtained from the abdominal region of a healthy patient. The experimental protocol was approved by the Bioethics Committee of Barcelona SCIAS Hospital (Spain), and they obtained the written informed consent forms. After being frozen to -20ºC, the skin samples were cut with a dermatome at 400 µm. The ex vivo permeation study was performed in Franz diffusion cells with a diffusion area of 2.54 cm². Skin samples were placed between two compartment sites, the dermal side in contact with the receptor medium and the epidermis side in contact with the donor chamber to which the formulation was applied. The permeation study was conducted for 24 hours at 32 ± 0.5 °C in accordance with sink conditions. The results were analyzed with an unpaired t-test, and the p-values indicate the formulation with nanoparticles had a higher permeability coefficient, flux, partition parameter, diffusion parameter, and lag time. The applicability of this formulation topically can benefit articulations and ligament inflammation as an alternative to oral drugs.

Keywords: anti-inflammatory drug, flurbiprofen, human skin, nanoparticles, skin permeation

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1951 The Effectiveness of Treating Anxiety with Reiki

Authors: Erika Humphreys

Abstract:

The effectiveness of treating anxiety with Reiki is explored within ten quantitative studies. The methodology utilized for a critical appraisal and systematic review of the literature is explained with inclusion and exclusion criteria. The theoretical framework for the project is grounded in the work of Hildegard Peplau, whose nursing theory based on the therapeutic use of self is foundational for Reiki implementation. A thorough critique of the literature is conducted for key components of robustness and believability. This critique is conducted using a structured guide addressing synthesized strengths and weaknesses of the body of literature. A synthesis of the literature explores the findings of the studies. This synthesis reports on Reiki’s effectiveness in treating anxiety within a variety of patient settings and populations, its effect on subscales of anxiety, physiological manifestations of anxiety, and pain associated with anxiety. Cultural considerations affecting Reiki’s potential effectiveness are discussed. Gaps in the literature are examined, including the studies’ narrow sample population, lack of participant exclusionary factors for controlled outcome data, and the lack of studies across time. Implications for future research are discussed with recommendations for expanded research that includes a broader variety of settings, age groups, and patient diagnoses, including anxiety disorders, for research data that is transferable. Implications for further practice for the advanced practice registered nurse (APRN) are explored, with the potential benefits for both providers and patients, including improved patient satisfaction and expansion of provider treatment modalities.

Keywords: Reiki, anxiety, complementary alternative medicine, pandemic

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1950 Catalytic Pyrolysis of Barley Straw for the Production of Fuels and Chemicals

Authors: Funda Ates

Abstract:

Primary energy sources, such as petroleum, coal and natural gas are principle responsible of world’s energy consumption. However, the rapid worldwide increase in the depletion of these energy sources is remarkable. In addition to this, they have damaging environmentally effect. Renewable energy sources are capable of providing a considerable fraction of World energy demand in this century. Biomass is one of the most abundant and utilized sources of renewable energy in the world. It can be converted into commercial fuels, suitable to substitute for fossil fuels. A high number of biomass types can be converted through thermochemical processes into solid, liquid or gaseous fuels. Pyrolysis is the thermal decomposition of biomass in the absence of air or oxygen. In this study, barley straw has been investigated as an alternative feedstock to obtain fuels and chemicals via pyrolysis in fixed-bed reactor. The influence of pyrolysis temperature in the range 450–750 °C as well as the catalyst effects on the products was investigated and the obtained results were compared. The results indicated that a maximum oil yield of 20.4% was obtained at a moderate temperature of 550 °C. Oil yield decreased by using catalyst. Pyrolysis oils were examined by using instrumental analysis and GC/MS. Analyses revealed that the pyrolysis oils were chemically very heterogeneous at all temperatures. It was determined that the most abundant compounds composing the bio-oil were phenolics. Catalyst decreased the reaction temperature. Most of the components obtained using a catalyst at moderate temperatures was close to those obtained at high temperatures without using a catalyst. Moreover, the use of a catalyst also decreased the amount of oxygenated compounds produced.

Keywords: Barley straw, pyrolysis, catalyst, phenolics

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1949 Challenging Clinical Scenario of Blood Stream Candida Infections – An Indian Experience

Authors: P. Uma Devi, S. Sujith, K. Rahul, T. S. Dipu, V. Anil Kumar , Vidya Menon

Abstract:

Introduction: Candida is an important cause of bloodstream infections (BSIs), causing significant mortality and morbidity. The epidemiology of Candida infection is also changing, mainly in relation to the number of episodes caused by species Candida non-albicans. However, in India, the true burden of candidemia is not clear. Thus, this study was conducted to evaluate the clinical characteristics, species distribution, antifungal susceptibility and outcome of candidemia at our hospital. Methodology: Between January 2012 and April 2014, adult patients with at least one positive blood culture for Candida species were identified through the microbiology laboratory database (for each patient only the first episode of candidemia was recorded). Patient data was collected by retrospective chart review of clinical characteristics including demographic data, risk factors; species distribution, resistance to antifungals and survival. Results: A total of 165 episodes of Candida BSI were identified, with 115 episodes occurring in adult patients. Most of the episodes occurred in males (69.6%). Nearly 82.6% patients were between 41 to 80 years and majority of the patients were in the intensive care unit (65.2%) at the time of diagnosis. On admission, 26.1% and 18.3% patients had pneumonia and urinary tract infection, respectively. Majority of the candidemia episodes were found in the general medicine department (23.5%) followed by gastrointestinal surgery (13.9%) and medical oncology & haematology (13%). Risk factors identified were prior hospitalization within one year (83.5%), antibiotic therapy within the last one month (64.3%), indwelling urinary catheter (63.5%), central venous catheter use (59.1%), diabetes mellitus (53%), severe sepsis (45.2%), mechanical ventilation (43.5%) and surgery (36.5%). C. tropicalis (30.4%) was the leading cause of infection followed by C. parapsilosis (28.7%) and C. albicans (13%). Other non-albicans species isolated included C. haemulonii (7.8%), C. glabrata (7%), C. famata (4.3%) and C. krusei (1.7%). Antifungal susceptibility to fluconazole was 87.9% (C. parapsilosis), 100% (C. tropicalis) and 93.3% (C. albicans). Mortality was noted in 51 patients (44.3%). Early mortality (within 7 days) was noted in 32 patients while late mortality (between 7 and 30 days) was noted in 19 patients. Conclusion: In recent years, candidemia has been flourishing in critically ill patients. Comparison of data from our own hospital from 2005 shows a doubling of the incidence. Rapid changes in the rate of infection, potential risk factors, and emergence of non-albicans Candida demand continued surveillance of this serious BSI. High index of suspicion and sensitive diagnostics are essential to improve outcomes in resource limited settings with emergence of non-albicans Candida.

Keywords: antifungal susceptibility, candida albicans, candidemia, non-albicans candida

Procedia PDF Downloads 439
1948 Distributional and Developmental Analysis of PM2.5 in Beijing, China

Authors: Alexander K. Guo

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PM2.5 poses a large threat to people’s health and the environment and is an issue of large concern in Beijing, brought to the attention of the government by the media. In addition, both the United States Embassy in Beijing and the government of China have increased monitoring of PM2.5 in recent years, and have made real-time data available to the public. This report utilizes hourly historical data (2008-2016) from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing for the first time. The first objective was to attempt to fit probability distributions to the data to better predict a number of days exceeding the standard, and the second was to uncover any yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly patterns and trends that may arise to better understand of air control policy. In these data, 66,650 hours and 2687 days provided valid data. Lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions were fit to the data through an estimation of parameters. The Chi-squared test was employed to compare the actual data with the fitted distributions. The data were used to uncover trends, patterns, and improvements in PM2.5 concentration over the period of time with valid data in addition to specific periods of time that received large amounts of media attention, analyzed to gain a better understanding of causes of air pollution. The data show a clear indication that Beijing’s air quality is unhealthy, with an average of 94.07µg/m3 across all 66,650 hours with valid data. It was found that no distribution fit the entire dataset of all 2687 days well, but each of the three above distribution types was optimal in at least one of the yearly data sets, with the lognormal distribution found to fit recent years better. An improvement in air quality beginning in 2014 was discovered, with the first five months of 2016 reporting an average PM2.5 concentration that is 23.8% lower than the average of the same period in all years, perhaps the result of various new pollution-control policies. It was also found that the winter and fall months contained more days in both good and extremely polluted categories, leading to a higher average but a comparable median in these months. Additionally, the evening hours, especially in the winter, reported much higher PM2.5 concentrations than the afternoon hours, possibly due to the prohibition of trucks in the city in the daytime and the increased use of coal for heating in the colder months when residents are home in the evening. Lastly, through analysis of special intervals that attracted media attention for either unnaturally good or bad air quality, the government’s temporary pollution control measures, such as more intensive road-space rationing and factory closures, are shown to be effective. In summary, air quality in Beijing is improving steadily and do follow standard probability distributions to an extent, but still needs improvement. Analysis will be updated when new data become available.

Keywords: Beijing, distribution, patterns, pm2.5, trends

Procedia PDF Downloads 229
1947 Bayesian Flexibility Modelling of the Conditional Autoregressive Prior in a Disease Mapping Model

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
1946 Stimulation of Stevioside Accumulation on Stevia rebaudiana (Bertoni) Shoot Culture Induced with Red LED Light in TIS RITA® Bioreactor System

Authors: Vincent Alexander, Rizkita Esyanti

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Leaves of Stevia rebaudiana contain steviol glycoside which mainly comprise of stevioside, a natural sweetener compound that is 100-300 times sweeter than sucrose. Current cultivation method of Stevia rebaudiana in Indonesia has yet to reach its optimum efficiency and productivity to produce stevioside as a safe sugar substitute sweetener for people with diabetes. An alternative method that is not limited by environmental factor is in vitro temporary immersion system (TIS) culture method using recipient for automated immersion (RITA®) bioreactor. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of red LED light induction towards shoot growth and stevioside accumulation in TIS RITA® bioreactor system, as an endeavour to increase the secondary metabolite synthesis. The result showed that the stevioside accumulation in TIS RITA® bioreactor system induced with red LED light for one hour during night was higher than that in TIS RITA® bioreactor system without red LED light induction, i.e. 71.04 ± 5.36 μg/g and 42.92 ± 5.40 μg/g respectively. Biomass growth rate reached as high as 0.072 ± 0.015/day for red LED light induced TIS RITA® bioreactor system, whereas TIS RITA® bioreactor system without induction was only 0.046 ± 0.003/day. Productivity of Stevia rebaudiana shoots induced with red LED light was 0.065 g/L medium/day, whilst shoots without any induction was 0.041 g/L medium/day. Sucrose, salt, and inorganic consumption in both bioreactor media increased as biomass increased. It can be concluded that Stevia rebaudiana shoot in TIS RITA® bioreactor induced with red LED light produces biomass and accumulates higher stevioside concentration, in comparison to bioreactor without any light induction.

Keywords: LED, Stevia rebaudiana, Stevioside, TIS RITA

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
1945 A Case Study on Effectiveness of Hijamah (Wet Cupping) on Numbness of Foot in Diabetic Patient

Authors: Nafdha Thajudeen

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Hijamah therapy is one of the leading alternative & complementary modalities in the World. It is a kind of detoxification, rejuvenation, and blood purification method. It comes under Ilaj bil Tadbeer (Regimental therapy) in the Unani medical system. In diabetes, hands and foot care in people is very important because of slow blood circulation, where blood sometimes is not able to fully penetrate the capillaries. Hijamah therapy works upon the following two principles- Tanqiyae Mawad (Evacuation of morbid humor) and Imalae Mawad (Diversion of humor). The aim of this study was to find out the effectiveness of hijamah therapy on the numbness of legs in a diabetic patient. This case study was carried out in Ayurvedic Research Hospital (Non-Communicable Diseases), Ninthavur, Sri Lanka. A 63 years old female diabetic patient came to the clinic with the complain of numbness in both feet for one year. The treatment history of the patient revealed that she had taken western medicine for her complaints for 7 months. In her first visit, wet cupping was done on local and distal points. The patient said there was a remarkable improvement; internal medicines were given to keep the sugar level in normal with some external applications. Every week, wet cupping was done on the same points, with repeating the same medicines. Foot numbness was fully cured within one month. The finding of this study shows that the complaint of numbness in the diabetic patient was treated with hijamah therapy with internal & external medicine. This case study can be concluded as hijamah therapy is very effective in treating diabetic numbness. This single case study may be the entrance for future clinical studies

Keywords: Hijamah therapy, Ilaj bil thadbeer, diabetes, numbness

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
1944 Immobilization of Lead in Contaminated Soil Using Enzyme Induced Calcite Precipitation (EİCP) Along with Coconut Fiber Biochar (CFB)

Authors: Kaniz Roksana, Aluthgun Hewage Shaini, Cheng Zhu

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Lead is environmentally hazardous because it may persist for a long time in soil, water, and air, and it can travel large distances when carried by wind or water. Lead is toxic to many different species of organisms and has the potential to disrupt ecosystem stability. Moreover, lead can contaminate crops and livestock, which can then have an adverse effect on human health. This study was conducted to use the enzyme-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP) technique from soybean crude extract urease along coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB) to bioremediate lead. To study the desorption rates of heavy metals from the soil, lead (Pb) was added to the soil at load ratios of 50 and 100 mg/kg. There were five separate treatment soil columns created: control sample, only CFB, only EICP, EICP with 2% (w/w) CFB, and EICP with 4% (w/w) CFB. Laboratory scale experiment demonstrates significant lead removal from soil. The amount of CaCO₃ precipitated in the soil was measured using a gravimetric acid digestion test, which related heavy metal desorption to the amount of precipitated calcium carbonate. These findings were validated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), which revealed calcium carbonate and lead coprecipitation. As a result, the study reveals that the EICP technique, in conjunction with coconut fiber biochar, could be an efficient alternative in the remediation of heavy metal ion-contaminated soils.

Keywords: enzyme induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP), coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB), bioremediation, heavy metal

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
1943 Temporal Effects on Chemical Composition of Treated Wastewater and Borehole Water Used for Irrigation in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Authors: Pholosho M. Kgopa, Phatu W. Mashela, Alen Manyevere

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Increasing incidents of drought spells in most Sub-Saharan Africa call for using alternative sources of water for irrigation in arid and semi-arid regions. A study was conducted to investigate chemical composition of borehole and treated wastewater from different sampling disposal sites at University of Limpopo Experimental Farm (ULEF). A 4 × 5 factorial experiment, with the borehole as a reference sampling site and three other sampling sites along the wastewater disposal system was conducted over five months. Water samples were collected at four sites namely, (a) exit from Pond 16 into the furrow, (b) entry into night-dam, (c) exit from night dam to irrigated fields and (d) exit from borehole to irrigated fields. Water samples were collected in the middle of each month, starting from July to November 2016. Samples were analysed for pH, EC, Ca, Mg, Na, K, Al, B, Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb, Cd and As. The site × time interactions were highly significant for Ca, Mg, Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb, Cd, and As variables, but not for Na and K. Sampling site was highly significant on all variables, with sampling period not significant for K and Na. Relative to water from the borehole, Na concentration in wastewater samples from the night-dam exit, night-dam entry and Pond16 exit were lower by 69, 34 and 55%, respectively. Relative to borehole water, Al was higher in wastewater sampling sites. In conclusion, both sampling site and period affected the chemical composition of treated wastewater.

Keywords: irrigation water quality, spatial effects, temporal effects, water reuse, water scarcity

Procedia PDF Downloads 222
1942 The Effect of Mindfulness Meditation on Pain, Sleep Quality, and Self-Esteem in Patients Receiving Hemodialysis in Jordan

Authors: Hossam N. Alhawatmeh, Areen I. Albustanji

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Hemodialysis negatively affects physical and psychological health. Pain, poor sleep quality, and low self-esteem are highly prevalent among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) who receive hemodialysis, significantly increasing mortality and morbidity of those patients. Mind-body interventions (MBI), such as mindfulness meditation, have been recently gaining popularity that improved pain, sleep quality, and self-esteem in different populations. However, to our best knowledge, its effects on these health problems in patients receiving hemodialysis have not been studied in Jordan. Thus, the purpose of the study was to examine the effect of mindfulness meditation on pain, sleep quality, and self-esteem in patients with ESR receiving hemodialysis in Jordan. An experimental repeated-measures, randomized, parallel control design was conducted on (n =60) end-stage renal disease patients undergoing hemodialysis between March and June 2023 in the dialysis center at a public hospital in Jordan. Participants were randomly assigned to the experimental (n =30) and control groups (n =30) using a simple random assignment method. The experimental group practiced mindfulness meditation for 30 minutes three times per week for five weeks during their hemodialysis treatments. The control group's patients continued to receive hemodialysis treatment as usual for five weeks during hemodialysis sessions. The study variables for both groups were measured at baseline (Time 0), two weeks after intervention (Time 1), and at the end of intervention (Time 3). The numerical rating scale (NRS), the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES-M), and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) were used to measure pain, self-esteem, and sleep quality, respectively. SPSS version 25 was used to analyze the study data. The sample was described by frequency, mean, and standard deviation as an appropriate. The repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests were run to test the study hypotheses. The results of repeated measures ANOVA (within-subject) revealed that mindfulness meditation significantly decrease pain by the end of the intervention in the experimental group. Additionally, mindfulness meditation improved sleep quality and self-esteem in the experimental group, and these improvements occurred significantly after two weeks of the intervention and at the end of the intervention. The results of repeated measures ANOVA (within and between-subject) revealed that the experimental group, compared to the control group, experienced lower levels of pain and higher levels of sleep quality and self-esteem over time. In conclusion, the results provided substantial evidence supporting the positive impacts of mindfulness meditation on pain, sleep quality, and self-esteem in patients with ESRD undergoing hemodialysis. These results highlight the potential of mindfulness meditation as an adjunctive therapy in the comprehensive care of this patient population. Incorporating mindfulness meditation into the treatment plan for patients receiving hemodialysis may contribute to improved well-being and overall quality of life.

Keywords: hemodialysis, pain, sleep quality, self-esteem, mindfulness

Procedia PDF Downloads 70
1941 Study on the Impact of Windows Location on Occupancy Thermal Comfort by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Simulation

Authors: Farhan E Shafrin, Khandaker Shabbir Ahmed

Abstract:

Natural ventilation strategies continue to be a key alternative to costly mechanical ventilation systems, especially in healthcare facilities, due to increasing energy issues in developing countries, including Bangladesh. Besides, overcrowding and insufficient ventilation strategies remain significant causes of thermal discomfort and hospital infection in Bangladesh. With the proper location of inlet and outlet windows, uniform flow is possible in the occupancy area to achieve thermal comfort. It also determines the airflow pattern of the ward that decreases the movement of the contaminated air. This paper aims to establish a relationship between the location of the windows and the thermal comfort of the occupants in a naturally ventilated hospital ward. It defines the openings and ventilation variables that are interrelated in a way that enhances or limits the health and thermal comfort of occupants. The study conducts a full-scale experiment in one of the naturally ventilated wards in a primary health care hospital in Manikganj, Dhaka. CFD simulation is used to explore the performance of various opening positions in ventilation efficiency and thermal comfort in the study area. The results indicate that the opening located in the hospital ward has a significant impact on the thermal comfort of the occupants and the airflow pattern inside the ward. The findings can contribute to design the naturally ventilated hospital wards by identifying and predicting future solutions when it comes to relationships with the occupants' thermal comforts.

Keywords: CFD simulation, hospital ward, natural ventilation, thermal comfort, window location

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
1940 A Study of Applying the Use of Breathing Training to Palliative Care Patients, Based on the Bio-Psycho-Social Model

Authors: Wenhsuan Lee, Yachi Chang, Yingyih Shih

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In clinical practices, it is common that while facing the unknown progress of their disease, palliative care patients may easily feel anxious and depressed. These types of reactions are a cause of psychosomatic diseases and may also influence treatment results. However, the purpose of palliative care is to provide relief from all kinds of pains. Therefore, how to make patients more comfortable is an issue worth studying. This study adopted the “bio-psycho-social model” proposed by Engel and applied spontaneous breathing training, in the hope of seeing patients’ psychological state changes caused by their physiological state changes, improvements in their anxious conditions, corresponding adjustments of their cognitive functions, and further enhancement of their social functions and the social support system. This study will be a one-year study. Palliative care outpatients will be recruited and assigned to the experimental group or the control group for six outpatient visits (once a month), with 80 patients in each group. The patients of both groups agreed that this study can collect their physiological quantitative data using an HRV device before the first outpatient visit. They also agreed to answer the “Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI)”, the “Taiwanese version of the WHOQOL-BREF questionnaire” before the first outpatient visit, to fill a self-report questionnaire after each outpatient visit, and to answer the “Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI)”, the “Taiwanese version of the WHOQOL-BREF questionnaire” after the last outpatient visit. The patients of the experimental group agreed to receive the breathing training under HRV monitoring during the first outpatient visit of this study. Before each of the following three outpatient visits, they were required to fill a self-report questionnaire regarding their breathing practices after going home. After the outpatient visits, they were taught how to practice breathing through an HRV device and asked to practice it after going home. Later, based on the results from the HRV data analyses and the pre-tests and post-tests of the “Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI)”, the “Taiwanese version of the WHOQOL-BREF questionnaire”, the influence of the breathing training in the bio, psycho, and social aspects were evaluated. The data collected through the self-report questionnaires of the patients of both groups were used to explore the possible interfering factors among the bio, psycho, and social changes. It is expected that this study will support the “bio-psycho-social model” proposed by Engel, meaning that bio, psycho, and social supports are closely related, and that breathing training helps to transform palliative care patients’ psychological feelings of anxiety and depression, to facilitate their positive interactions with others, and to improve the quality medical care for them.

Keywords: palliative care, breathing training, bio-psycho-social model, heart rate variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
1939 In and Out-Of-Sample Performance of Non Simmetric Models in International Price Differential Forecasting in a Commodity Country Framework

Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

Procedia PDF Downloads 268
1938 Hybrid Equity Warrants Pricing Formulation under Stochastic Dynamics

Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

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A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
1937 Ultrasound Guided Treatment of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome

Authors: Kazem Shakouri, Alireza Pishgahi, Homayoun Sadeghi-bBazargani, Shahla Dareshiri

Abstract:

Introduction: Carpal Tunnel Syndrome has numerous nonsurgical treatments including splint, physical therapy and corticosteroid injections. Aim: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasound guided treatment procedure, for individuals with severe carpal tunnel syndrome. Materials and Method: 20 patients with an electrodiagnostic evidence of severe carpal tunnel syndrome were treated by an office-based ultrasound guided procedure (combination of percutaneous needle release of carpal tunnel and corticosteroid injection). Electrodiagnostic (nerve conduction study), clinical (Boston Carpal Tunnel Questionnaire, grip strength) and ultrasonic (median nerve and carpal tunnel cross-sectional area) measurements were recorded at baseline and one month after intervention. Results: Our preliminary data analysis showed that in one month follow up, patients had a significantly smaller cross-sectional area of the median nerve compared to pretreatment values (mean difference 0.06; 95%CI: 0.02-0.1; p < 0.001). In addition, patients had significantly less functional impairment (mean difference 35; 95% CI:28.7-43.4 ; p < 0.001), and an improved hand grip strength in one month follow up (mean difference 5.4; 95%CI: 3.1-7.8; p < 0.001;). There were no significant complications. Conclusion: Patients with severe carpal tunnel syndrome, who are candidates for surgical intervention, can consider office-based ultrasound guided needle release of carpal tunnel as an alternative safe treatment.

Keywords: Carpal Tunnel Syndrome, needle release, pain, ultrasound

Procedia PDF Downloads 230