Search results for: risk based index

Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ghammam Rim, Ezzi Olfa, Ben Cheikh Asma, Mahjoub Mohamed, Helali Radhia, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

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Background: Central venous catheter associated infections (CVC-AI) are among the serious hospital-acquired infections. The aims of this study are to determine the incidence of CVC-AI, and their risk factors among patients followed in a Tunisian medical intensive care unit (ICU). Materials / Methods: A prospective cohort study conducted between September 15th, 2015 and November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU including all patients admitted for more than 48h. CVC-AI were defined according to CDC of ATLANTA criteria. The enrollment was based on clinical and laboratory diagnosis of CVC-AI. For all subjects, age, sex, underlying diseases, SAPS II score, ICU length of stay, exposure to CVC (number of CVC placed, site of insertion and duration catheterization) were recorded. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Among 192 eligible patients, 144 patients (75%) had a central venous catheter. Twenty-eight patients (19.4%) had developed CVC-AI with density rate incidence 20.02/1000 CVC-days. Among these infections, 60.7% (n=17) were systemic CVC-AI (with negative blood culture), and 35.7% (n=10) were bloodstream CVC-AI. The mean SAPS II of patients with CVC-AI was 32.76 14.48; their mean Charlson index was 1.77 1.55, their mean duration of catheterization was 15.46 10.81 days and the mean duration of one central line was 5.8+/-3.72 days. Gram-negative bacteria was determined in 53.5 % of CVC-AI (n= 15) dominated by multi-drug resistant Acinetobacter baumani (n=7). Staphylococci were isolated in 3 CVC-AI. Fourteen (50%) patients with CVC-AI died. Univariate analysis identified men (p=0.034), the referral from another hospital department (p=0.03), tobacco (p=0.006), duration of sedation (p=0.003) and the duration of catheterization (p=0), as possible risk factors of CVC-AI. Multivariate analysis showed that independent factors of CVC-AI were, male sex; OR= 5.73, IC 95% [2; 16.46], p=0.001, Ramsay score; OR= 1.57, IC 95% [1.036; 2.38], p=0.033, and duration of catheterization; OR=1.093, IC 95% [1.035; 1.15], p=0.001. Conclusion: In a monocenter cohort, CVC-AI had a high density and is associated with poor outcome. Identifying the risk factors is necessary to find solutions for this major health problem.

Keywords: central venous catheter associated infection, intensive care unit, prospective cohort studies, risk factors

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Authors: Dianne Williams

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This study examined the peer/individual domain of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) to assess the risk and protective factors that impact criminal gang involvement among at-risk males residing in a juvenile home in Trinidad and Tobago. The RFPP allows for the identification of both risk and protective factors in a single, holistic framework to identify the relationship between risk factors, protective factors, and criminal gang involvement among at-risk male adolescents. Findings showed that having anti-social peers was the most significant risk factor associated with criminal gang involvement, while the most significant protective factor was having a positive social attitude. Moreover, while 65% of the boys reported never having been in a gang, 70% reported having hit, struck or used a weapon against someone, while 52% reported being involved in other violent incidents on more than two occasions. This suggests that while involvement with criminal gangs may not be common among this population, predisposing behavioral patterns are present. Results are expected to assist in the development of targeted strategies to reduce the attractiveness of gang membership.

Keywords: risk factor prevention paradigm, risk factors, protective factors, peer/individual domain, gang involvement, at-risk youth, trinidad and tobago, juvenile home

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Authors: Shokofeh Ebrtahimi

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Let G be the chemical graph of a molecule. The matrix D = [dij ] is called the detour matrix of G, if dij is the length of longest path between atoms i and j. The sum of all entries above the main diagonal of D is called the detour index of G.Chemical graph theory is the topology branch of mathematical chemistry which applies graph theory to mathematical modelling of chemical phenomena.[1] The pioneers of the chemical graph theory are Alexandru Balaban, Ante Graovac, Ivan Gutman, Haruo Hosoya, Milan Randić and Nenad TrinajstićLet G be the chemical graph of a molecule. The matrix D = [dij ] is called the detour matrix of G, if dij is the length of longest path between atoms i and j. The sum of all entries above the main diagonal of D is called the detour index of G. In this paper, a new program for computing the detour index of molecular graphs of nanotubes by heptagons is determineded. Some Conjectures about detour index of Molecular graphs of nanotubes is included.

Keywords: chemical graph, detour matrix, Detour index, carbon nanotube

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Authors: Lenka Jesonkova, Frantisek Bozek

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Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.

Keywords: drinking water, health risk assessment, trihalogenmethanes, water pollution

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Authors: Guanhua Zhou, Zhongqi Ma

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Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in wetlands can absorb nitrogen and phosphorus effectively to prevent the eutrophication of water. It is feasible to monitor the distribution of SAV through remote sensing, but for the reason of weak vegetation signals affected by water body, traditional terrestrial vegetation indices are not applicable. This paper aims at constructing SAV index to enhance the vegetation signals and distinguish SAV from water body. The methodology is as follows: (1) select the bands sensitive to the vegetation parameters based on global sensitivity analysis of SAV canopy radiative transfer model; (2) take the soil line concept as reference, analyze the distribution of SAV and water reflectance simulated by SAV canopy model and semi-analytical water model in the two-dimensional space built by different sensitive bands; (3)select the band combinations which have better separation performance between SAV and water, and use them to build the SAVI indices in the form of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI); (4)analyze the sensitivity of indices to the water and vegetation parameters, choose the one more sensitive to vegetation parameters. It is proved that index formed of the bands with central wavelengths in 705nm and 842nm has high sensitivity to chlorophyll content in leaves while it is less affected by water constituents. The model simulation shows a general negative, little correlation of SAV index with increasing water depth. Moreover, the index enhances capabilities in separating SAV from water compared to NDVI. The SAV index is expected to have potential in parameter inversion of wetland remote sensing.

Keywords: global sensitivity analysis, radiative transfer model, submerged aquatic vegetation, vegetation indices

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Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

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The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Ragini Trehan, D.K. Srivastava

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In the post-planning era, India’s fiscal transfers from the central to state governments are solely determined by the Finance Commissions (FCs). While in some of the well-established federations such as Australia, Canada, and Germany, equalization serves as the guiding principle of fiscal transfers and is constitutionally mandated, in India, it is not explicitly mandated, and FCs attempt to implement it indirectly by a combination of a formula-based share in the divisible pool of central taxes supplemented by a set of grants. In this context, it is important to measure the extent of equalization that is achieved through FC transfers with a view to improving the design of such transfers. This study uses an index-based methodology for measuring the degree of equalization achieved through FC-transfers covering the period from FC12 to the first year of FC15 spanning from 2005-06 to 2020-21. The ‘Index of Equalization’ shows that the extent of equalization has remained low in the range of 30% to 37% for the four Commission periods under review. The highest degree of equalization at 36.7% was witnessed in the FC12 period and the lowest equalization at 29.5% was achieved during the FC15(1) period. The equalizing efficiency of recommended transfers also shows a consistent fall from 11.4% in the FC12 period to 7.5% by the FC15 (1) period. Further, considering progressivity in fiscal transfers as a special case of equalizing transfers, this study shows that the scheme of per capita total transfers when determined using the equalization approach is more progressive and is characterized by minimal deviations as compared to the profile of transfers recommended by recent FCs.

Keywords: fiscal transfers, index of equalization, equalizing efficiency, fiscal capacity, expenditure needs, finance Commission, tax effort

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Authors: Eftekhari M. H., Mozaffari-Khosravi H., Shidfar F.

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Background: Many Iranian adolescent girls are iron deficient, but it is unclear whether the iron deficiency is associated with other nutritional risk indicators. Objective: we aimed to investigate the association between iron deficiency and weight status (measured as BMI) among a reprehensive sample of teenage girls. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in a region of southern I.R.Iran. One hundred eighty-seven iron-deficient participants (aged between 11 to 14) were selected by systematic random sampling among all students in grades 1 to 3 from high schools for girls. We assayed hemoglobin, hematocrit, serum ferritin, iron and total iron binding capacity and measured weight and height. Body mass index was calculated according to age and gender-specific BMI growth charts for children 2 to 20 years of age. Results: 13% were at risk for being overweight and 8.3% were overweight. The severity of iron deficiency increased as BMI increased from normal to at risk for overweight and overweight. Iron deficiency anemia was most prevalent among overweight adolescents than at risk for overweight and normal weight adolescents (28%, 18%, and 13%, respectively). Conclusions: The results of this study showed an inverse association of BMI with serum ferritin. Overweight adolescents demonstrated an increased prevalence of anemia. Because of the potentially harmful effects of iron deficiency, obese adolescents should be routinely screened and treated as necessary.

Keywords: adolescent, over weight, iron deficiency, Iran

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Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Spexin, expressed in central nervous system, has attracted much interest in feeding behavior, obesity, diabetes, energy metabolism and cardiovascular functions. Fetuin A is known as negative acute phase reactant synthesized in the liver. So far, it has become a major concern of many studies in numerous clinical states. The relationship between the concentrations of spexin as well as fetuin A and the risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) were also investigated. Eosinophils, suggested to be associated with the development of CVDs, are introduced as early indicators of cardiometabolic complications. Patients with elevated platelet count, associated with hypercoagulable state in the body, are also more liable to CVDs. In this study, the aim is to examine the profiles of spexin and fetuin A concomitant with the course of variations detected in eosinophil as well as platelet counts in morbid obese children. Thirty-four children with normal-body mass index (N-BMI) and fifty-one morbid obese (MO) children participated in the study. Written-informed consent forms were obtained prior to the study. Institutional ethics committee approved the study protocol. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentile tables prepared by World Health Organization were used to classify healthy and obese children. Mean age ± SEM of the children were 9.3 ± 0.6 years and 10.7 ± 0.5 years in N-BMI and MO groups, respectively. Anthropometric measurements of the children were taken. Body mass index values were calculated from weight and height values. Blood samples were obtained after an overnight fasting. Routine hematologic and biochemical tests were performed. Within this context, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations were measured. Homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Spexin and fetuin A levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Data were evaluated from the statistical point of view. Statistically significant differences were found between groups in terms of BMI, fat mass index, INS, HOMA-IR and HDL-C. In MO group, all parameters increased as HDL-C decreased. Elevated concentrations in MO group were detected in eosinophils (p<0.05) and platelets (p>0.05). Fetuin A levels decreased in MO group (p>0.05). However, decrease was statistically significant in spexin levels for this group (p<0.05). In conclusion, these results have suggested that increases in eosinophils and platelets exhibit behavior as cardiovascular risk factors. Decreased fetuin A behaved as a risk factor suitable to increased risk for cardiovascular problems associated with the severity of obesity. Along with increased eosinophils, increased platelets and decreased fetuin A, decreased spexin was the parameter, which reflects best its possible participation in the early development of CVD risk in MO children.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases , eosinophils , fetuin A , pediatric morbid obesity , platelets , spexin

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Authors: Helen Frialde-Dupale

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Critical thinking Index (CTI) of 150 third year college students from five State Colleges and Universities (SUCs) in Region I were determined. Only students with Grade Point Average (GPA) of at least 2.0 from four general classification of degree courses, namely: Education, Arts and Sciences, Engineering and Agriculture were included. Specific problem No.1 dealt with the profile variables, namely: age, sex, degree course, monthly family income, number of siblings, high school graduated from, grade point average, personality type, highest educational attainment of parents, and occupation of parents. Problem No. 2 determined the critical thinking index among the respondents. Problem No. 3 investigated whether or not there are significant differences in the critical thinking index among the respondents across the profile variables. While problem No.4 determined whether or not there are significant relationship between the critical thinking index and selected profile variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average of the respondents. Finally, on problem No. 5, the critical thinking instrument which obtained the lowest rates, were used as basis for outlining an intervention program for enhancing critical thinking index (CTI) of students. The following null hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance: there are no significant differences in the critical thinking index of the third college students across the profile variables; there are no significant relationships between the critical thinking index of the respondents and selected variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average.

Keywords: attitude as critical thinker, critical thinking applied, critical thinking index, self-perception as critical thinker

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Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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Authors: Pankaj Kumar

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Despite few works reported about fluoride enrichment in the groundwater, no studies have done on exposure analysis for biological components in Patan district, Gujarat, Western India. Considering its vital importance, this study strives to quantify the bioaccumulation of fluoride in seven different crops and vegetables, viz. Spinach and Mustard leaves, Cauliflower, Wheat grains, Amaranth seed, Radish, and Garlic grown in the potentially fluoride contaminated area. Result shows that the order for fluoride accumulation among different analyzed plants are spinach (63.3 mg/kg) > mustard (48.9 mg/kg) > cauliflower (41.1 mg/kg) > radish (35.7 mg/kg) > garlic (33.2 mg/kg) > amaranth seed (26.7 mg/kg) > wheat (22.5 mg/kg). Fluoride concentration was highest in leafy vegetable, whereas the lowest was in wheat grains. Finally, estimated daily intake (EDI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated for local consumers of different age group, where it was found that young people (4-15 years) are at the highest risk of fluorosis. This study is relevant for better crop management, like substituting crops with woody plants, flowers, and people awareness.

Keywords: fluoride, bioaccumulation, health risk, water

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Authors: Rania Kassir, Christophe Dos Santos, Halim Abboud, Olivier Godefroy

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The ability to communicate in at least two different languages is shared by a growing number of humans. Recently, many researchers have been studying the elderly bilingual population around the world in neuroscience, and yet, until today there’s no accurate nor universal measure or methodology used to examine bilingualism across these studies which constitute a real challenge for results generalization. This study contributes to the quest of a multidimensional bilingualism index and language proficiency literature by investigating a new bilingualism index from a reliable subjective questionnaire the Language Experience and Proficiency Questionnaire (LEAP-Q), multi-linguistic tests, and a diverse bilingual population all featured in one analysis and one index. One hundred Lebanese subjects aged between 55 and 92 years old divided into three different bilingualism subgroups (Arabic prominent, balanced, and French prominent) were recruited and underwent the LEAP-Q with a set of linguistic and cognitive tests. The analysis of the collected data led to the creation of a robust bilingualism index from speaking and oral understanding scores that underline specifically bilingualism subtype according to cutoffs scored. The practice implications of this index, particularly its use within bilingual populations, are addressed in the conclusion of this work.

Keywords: bilingualism, language dominance, bilingualism index, balanced bilingualism, Arabic first language, Lebanese, Arabic-French bilingualism

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, analytic hierarchical process

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Authors: Taufik Hidayat, Yudha Nurhantari, Bambang U. D. Rianto

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Introduction: The examination of the Short Tandem Repeats (STR) locus on nuclear DNA is very useful in solving the paternity cases. The purpose of this study is to know the description of paternity cases and paternity index/probability of paternity analysis based on Indonesian allele frequency at Sardjito Hospital Yogyakarta. Method: This was an observational study with cross-sectional analytic method. Population and sample were all cases of disputed paternity from January 2011 to June 2015 that fulfill the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were examined at Forensic Medicine Unit of Sardjito Hospital, Medical Faculty of Gadjah Mada University. The paternity index was calculated with EasyDNA Program by Fung (2013). Analysis of the study was conducted by comparing the results through unpaired categorical test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This study was designed with 95% confidence interval (CI) with α = 5% and significance level is p < 0,05. Results: From 42 disputed paternity cases we obtained trio paternity cases were 32 cases (76.2%) and duo without a mother was 10 cases (23.8%). The majority of the fathers' estimated ages were 21-30 years (33.3%) and the mother's age was 31-40 years (38.1%). The majority of the ages of children examined for paternity were under 12 months (47.6%). The majority of ethnic clients are Javanese. Conclusion of inclusion was 57.1%, and exclusion was 42.9%. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test obtained p-value = 0.673. Conclusion: There is no significant difference between paternity index/probability of paternity based on Indonesian allele frequency between trio and duo of paternity.

Keywords: disputed paternity, paternity index, probability of paternity, short tandem

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Authors: R. Periyasamy, Deepak Joshi, Sneh Anand

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Foot posture assessment is important to evaluate foot type, causing gait and postural defects in all age groups. Although different methods are used for classification of foot arch type in clinical/research examination, there is no clear approach for selecting the most appropriate measurement system. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a system for evaluation of foot type as clinical decision-making aids for diagnosis of flat and normal arch based on the Arch Index (AI) and foot pressure distribution parameter - Power Ratio (PR) data. The accuracy of the system was evaluated for 27 subjects with age ranging from 24 to 65 years. Foot area measurements (hind foot, mid foot, and forefoot) were acquired simultaneously from foot pressure intensity image using portable PedoPowerGraph system and analysis of the image in frequency domain to obtain foot pressure distribution parameter - PR data. From our results, we obtain 100% classification accuracy of normal and flat foot by using the linear discriminant analysis method. We observe there is no misclassification of foot types because of incorporating foot pressure distribution data instead of only arch index (AI). We found that the mid-foot pressure distribution ratio data and arch index (AI) value are well correlated to foot arch type based on visual analysis. Therefore, this paper suggests that the proposed system is accurate and easy to determine foot arch type from arch index (AI), as well as incorporating mid-foot pressure distribution ratio data instead of physical area of contact. Hence, such computational tool based system can help the clinicians for assessment of foot structure and cross-check their diagnosis of flat foot from mid-foot pressure distribution.

Keywords: arch index, computational tool, static foot pressure intensity image, foot pressure distribution, linear discriminant analysis

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Authors: Sara Tokhi Arab, Rozo Noguchi, Tofeal Ahamed

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Drought is a natural disaster that occurs in a region due to a lack of precipitation and high temperatures over a continuous period or in a single season as a consequence of climate change. Precipitation deficits and prolonged high temperatures mostly affect the agricultural sector, water resources, socioeconomics, and the environment. Consequently, it causes agricultural product loss, food shortage, famines, migration, and natural resources degradation in a region. Agriculture is the first sector affected by drought. Therefore, it is important to develop an agricultural drought risk and loss assessment to mitigate the drought impact in the agriculture sector. In this context, the main purpose of this study was to assess yield loss using composite drought indices in the drought-affected vineyards. In this study, the CDI was developed for the years 2016 to 2020 by comprising five indices: the vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), deviation of NDVI from the long-term mean (NDVI DEV), normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) and precipitation condition index (PCI). Moreover, the quantitative principal component analysis (PCA) approach was used to assign a weight for each input parameter, and then the weights of all the indices were combined into one composite drought index. Finally, Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANNs) were used to evaluate the yield variation in each affected vineyard. The composite drought index result indicated the moderate to severe droughts were observed across the Kabul Province during 2016 and 2018. Moreover, the results showed that there was no vineyard in extreme drought conditions. Therefore, we only considered the severe and moderated condition. According to the BRANNs results R=0.87 and R=0.94 in severe drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018 and the R= 0.85 and R=0.91 in moderate drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018, respectively. In the Kabul Province within the two years drought periods, there was a significate deficit in the vineyards. According to the findings, 2018 had the highest rate of loss almost -7 ton/ha. However, in 2016 the loss rates were about – 1.2 ton/ha. This research will support stakeholders to identify drought affect vineyards and support farmers during severe drought.

Keywords: grapes, composite drought index, yield loss, satellite remote sensing

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Obesity is a low-grade inflammatory disease and may lead to health problems such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes. It is also associated with important risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. This requires the detailed evaluation of obesity, particularly in children. The aim of this study is to enlighten the potential associations between lipid ratios and obesity indices and to introduce those with discriminating features among children with obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS). A total of 408 children (aged between six and eighteen years) participated in the scope of the study. Informed consent forms were taken from the participants and their parents. Ethical Committee approval was obtained. Anthropometric measurements such as weight, height as well as waist, hip, head, neck circumferences and body fat mass were taken. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure values were recorded. Body mass index (BMI), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index-II (D2 index), waist-to-hip, head-to-neck ratios were calculated. Total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLChol), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLChol) analyses were performed in blood samples drawn from 110 children with normal body weight, 164 morbid obese (MO) children and 134 children with MetS. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentiles tabulated by World Health Organization were used to classify groups; normal body weight, MO and MetS. 15^th-to-85^th percentiles were used to define normal body weight children. Children, whose values were above the 99th percentile, were described as MO. MetS criteria were defined. Data were evaluated statistically by SPSS Version 20. The degree of statistical significance was accepted as p≤0.05. Mean±standard deviation values of BMI for normal body weight children, MO children and those with MetS were 15.7±1.1, 27.1±3.8 and 29.1±5.3 kg/m², respectively. Corresponding values for the D2 index were calculated as 3.4±0.9, 14.3±4.9 and 16.4±6.7. Both BMI and D2 index were capable of discriminating the groups from one another (p≤0.01). As far as other obesity indices were considered, waist-to hip and head-to-neck ratios did not exhibit any statistically significant difference between MO and MetS groups (p≥0.05). Diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index-II was correlated with the triglycerides-to-HDL-C ratio in normal body weight and MO (r=0.413, p≤0.01 and r=0.261, (p≤0.05, respectively). Total cholesterol-to-HDL-C and LDL-C-to-HDL-C showed statistically significant differences between normal body weight and MO as well as MO and MetS (p≤0.05). The only group in which these two ratios were significantly correlated with waist-to-hip ratio was MetS group (r=0.332 and r=0.334, p≤0.01, respectively). Lack of correlation between the D2 index and the triglycerides-to-HDL-C ratio was another important finding in MetS group. In this study, parameters and ratios, whose associations were defined previously with increased cardiovascular risk or cardiac death have been evaluated along with obesity indices in children with morbid obesity and MetS. Their profiles during childhood have been investigated. Aside from the nature of the correlation between the D2 index and triglycerides-to-HDL-C ratio, total cholesterol-to-HDL-C as well as LDL-C-to- HDL-C ratios along with their correlations with waist-to-hip ratio showed that the combination of obesity-related parameters predicts better than one parameter and appears to be helpful for discriminating MO children from MetS group.

Keywords: children, lipid ratios, metabolic syndrome, obesity indices

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Namik Kemal Sonmez

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Based passive remote sensing technologies have been widely used in many plant species. However, use of these techniques in orange trees is limited. In this study, the relationships between chlorophyll content (Chl) and calculated red edge (RE) and vegetation index values of the citrus leave at different growth stages were formed the basis for the analysis. Canopy reflectance by hand-held spectroradiometer and total Chl analysis at the lab were measured simultaneously, from the random samples taken from four different parts of an orange orchard. Plant materials consisted of four different age groups of 15, 20, 25, and 30 years old orange trees. Reflectance measurements were conducted between 450 and 900 nanometer (nm) wavelength at four different bands (3 visible bands and 1 near-infrared band) at the four basic physiological periods (flowering, fruit setting, fruit maturity, and dormancy) of orange trees. According to the statistical analysis conducted, there was a strong relationship between the chlorophyll content and calculated indexes (p ≤ 0.01; R²= 0.925 at red edge and R²= 0.986 at vegetation index) at the fruit setting stage of 20 years old trees. Again at this stage, fruit setting, total Chl content values among all orange trees were significantly correlated at the RE and VI with the R² values of 0.672 and 0.635 at the 0.001 level, respectively. This indicated that the relationships between Chl content and index values were very strong at this stage, in comparison to the other stages.

Keywords: spectroradiometer, citrus, chlorophyll, reflectance, index

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Ashwini Gowda K. S, Archana M. R, Anjaneyappa V

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This paper presents pavement maintenance and management system (PMMS) to obtain optimum pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and maintenance scheduling for a network using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA). Optimal pavement maintenance & rehabilitation strategy is to maximize the pavement condition index of the road section in a network with minimum maintenance and rehabilitation cost during the planning period. In this paper, NSGA-II is applied to perform maintenance optimization; this maintenance approach was expected to preserve and improve the existing condition of the highway network in a cost-effective way. The proposed PMMS is applied to a network that assessed pavement based on the pavement condition index (PCI). The minimum and maximum maintenance cost for a planning period of 20 years obtained from the non-dominated solution was found to be 5.190x10¹⁰ ₹ and 4.81x10¹⁰ ₹, respectively.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, maintenance and rehabilitation, optimization technique, pavement condition index

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Authors: Muhammad Isa Khan, Jalil Ur Rehman, Muhammad Afzal Khan Rao, James Chow

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Purpose: This study investigates the dose-volume variations in planning target volume (PTV) and organs-at-risk (OARs) using different collimator angles for smart arc prostate volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Awareness of the collimator angle for PTV and OARs sparing is essential for the planner because optimization contains numerous treatment constraints producing a complex, unstable and computationally challenging problem throughout its examination of an optimal plan in a rational time. Materials and Methods: Single arc VMAT plans at different collimator angles varied systematically (0°-90°) were performed on a Harold phantom and a new treatment plan is optimized for each collimator angle. We analyzed the conformity index (CI), homogeneity index (HI), gradient index (GI), monitor units (MUs), dose-volume histogram, mean and maximum doses to PTV. We also explored OARs (e.g. bladder, rectum and femoral heads), dose-volume criteria in the treatment plan (e.g. D30%, D50%, V30Gy and V38Gy of bladder and rectum; D5%,V14Gy and V22Gy of femoral heads), dose-volume histogram, mean and maximum doses for smart arc VMAT at different collimator angles. Results: There was no significance difference found in VMAT optimization at all studied collimator angles. However, if 0.5% accuracy is concerned then collimator angle = 45° provides higher CI and lower HI. Collimator angle = 15° also provides lower HI values like collimator angle 45°. It is seen that collimator angle = 75° is established as a good for rectum and right femur sparing. Collimator angle = 90° and collimator angle = 30° were found good for rectum and left femur sparing respectively. The PTV dose coverage statistics for each plan are comparatively independent of the collimator angles. Conclusion: It is concluded that this study will help the planner to have freedom to choose any collimator angle from (0°-90°) for PTV coverage and select a suitable collimator angle to spare OARs.

Keywords: VMAT, dose-volume histogram, collimator angle, organs-at-risk

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

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Natural environments have always been affected by one of the most important natural hazards, which is called, the mass movements that cause instability. Identifying the unstable regions and separating them so as to detect and determine the risk of environmental factors is one of the important issues in mountainous areas development. In this study, the northwest of Sabalan hillsides overlooking the Meshkin city and the surrounding area of that have been delimitated, in order to analyze the range processes such as landslides and debris flows based on structural and geomorphological conditions, by means of using GIS. This area due to the high slope of the hillsides and height of the region and the poor localization of roads and so because of them destabilizing the ranges own an inappropriate situation. This study is done with the purpose of identifying the effective factors in the range motion and determining the areas with high potential for zoning these movements by using GIS. The results showed that the most common range movements in the area, are debris flows, rocks falling and landslides. The effective factors in each one of the mass movements, considering a small amount of weight for each factor, the weight map of each factor and finally, the map of risk zoning for the range movements were provided. Based on the zoning map resulted in the study area, the risking level of damaging has specified into the four zones of very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, in which areas with very high and high risk are settled near the road and along the Khyav river and in the  mountainous district.

Keywords: debris flow, environmental hazards, GIS, landslide

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Authors: Molly Gerrish

Abstract:

This work explores the physical, emotional, social, and cognitive risks and benefits related to nature-based teaching and highlights the importance of promoting a sustainable workforce within early childhood programs. Assessing and managing risks can help programs reimagine their approach to teaching, learning, recruitment, family connectivity, and staff motivation. The importance of staff sustainability and motivation/engagement related to social justice and the environment will be discussed. We will explore ways to manage fears and limitations faced by early childhood programs regarding nature experiences and risky play in a variety of locations using a lens of place-based learning. We will also examine the alignment of sustainability and social-emotional development, mental health supports, social awareness, and risk assessment. The work will discuss the varied perceptions of risk in diverse areas and the impact on the early childhood workforce. Motivational theory and compassion resiliency are hallmarks of both recruiting and retaining high-quality early childhood educators; the work will discuss how to balance programmatic constraints and healthy motivation for students and teachers while empowering individuals to advocate for their mental health and well-being. Finally, the work will highlight the positive impact of nature-based teaching practices and the overall benefit to young children and their educators.

Keywords: child’s rights, inclusion, nature-based education, risk assessment

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

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Authors: Mahsa Tavakoli, Seyed Mohammad Hojjati, Yahya Kooch

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In this study, the effect of coal mining activities on lead and cadmium concentrations and distribution in soil was investigated in Hyrcanian forest, North Iran. 16 plots (20×20 m²) were established by systematic-randomly (60×60 m²) in an area of 4 ha (200×200 m²-mine entrance placed at center). An area adjacent to the mine was not affected by the mining activity; considered as the controlled area. In order to investigate soil lead and cadmium concentration, one sample was taken from the 0-10 cm in each plot. To study the spatial pattern of soil properties and lead and cadmium concentrations in the mining area, an area of 80×80m² (the mine as the center) was considered and 80 soil samples were systematic-randomly taken (10 m intervals). Geostatistical analysis was performed via Kriging method and GS⁺ software (version 5.1). In order to estimate the impact of coal mining activities on soil quality, pollution index was measured. Lead and cadmium concentrations were significantly higher in mine area (Pb: 10.97±0.30, Cd: 184.47±6.26 mg.kg^-1) in comparison to control area (Pb: 9.42±0.17, Cd: 131.71±15.77 mg.kg^-1). The mean values of the PI index indicate that Pb (1.16) and Cd (1.77) presented slightly polluted. Results of the NIPI index showed that Pb (1.44) and Cd (2.52) presented slight pollution and moderate pollution respectively. Results of variography and kriging method showed that it is possible to prepare interpolation maps of lead and cadmium around the mining areas in Hyrcanian forest. According to results of pollution and risk assessments, forest soil was contaminated by heavy metals (lead and cadmium); therefore, using reclamation and remediation techniques in these areas is necessary.

Keywords: traditional coal mining, heavy metals, pollution indicators, geostatistics, Caspian forest

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Anthropometric measurements are essential for obesity studies. Waist circumference (WC) is the most frequently used measure, and along with hip circumference (HC), it is used in most equations derived for the evaluation of obese individuals. Morbid obesity is the most severe clinical form of obesity, and such individuals may also exhibit some clinical findings leading to metabolic syndrome (MetS). Then, it becomes a requirement to discriminate morbid obese children with (MOMetS+) and without (MOMetS-) MetS. Almost all obesity indices can differentiate obese (OB) children from children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). However, not all of them are capable of making this distinction. A recently introduced anthropometric obesity index, waist circumference + hip circumference/2 ((WC+HC)/2), was confirmed to differ OB children from those with N-BMI, however it has not been tested whether it will find clinical usage for the differential diagnosis of MOMetS+ and MOMetS-. This study was designed to find out the availability of (WC+HC)/2 for the purpose and to compare the possible preponderance of it over some other anthropometric or fat-based obesity indices. Forty-five MOMetS+ and forty-five MOMetS- children were included in the study. Participants have submitted informed consent forms. The study protocol was approved by the Non-interventional Ethics Committee of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University. Anthropometric measurements were performed. Body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip circumference (W/H), (WC+HC)/2, trunk-to-leg fat ratio (TLFR), trunk-to-appendicular fat ratio (TAFR), trunk fat+leg fat/2 ((trunk+leg fat)/2), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index-2 (D2I) and fat mass index (FMI) were calculated for both groups. Study data was analyzed statistically, and 0.05 for p value was accepted as the statistical significance degree. Statistically higher BMI, WC, (WC+HC)/2, (trunk+leg fat)/2 values were found in MOMetS+ children than MOMetS- children. No statistically significant difference was detected for W/H, TLFR, TAFR, D2I, and FMI between two groups. The lack of difference between the groups in terms of FMI and D2I pointed out the fact that the recently developed fat-based index; (trunk+leg fat)/2 gives much more valuable information during the evaluation of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- children. Upon evaluation of the correlations, (WC+HC)/2 was strongly correlated with D2I and FMI in both MOMetS+ and MOMetS- groups. Neither D2I nor FMI was correlated with W/H. Strong correlations were calculated between (WC+HC)/2 and (trunk+leg fat)/2 in both MOMetS- (r=0.961; p<0.001) and MOMetS+ (r=0.936; p<0.001) groups. Partial correlations between (WC+HC)/2 and (trunk+leg fat)/2 after controlling the effect of basal metabolic rate were r=0.726; p<0.001 in MOMetS- group and r=0.932; p<0.001 in MOMetS+ group. The correlation in the latter group was higher than the first group. In conclusion, recently developed anthropometric obesity index (WC+HC)/2 and fat-based obesity index (trunk+leg fat)/2 were of preponderance over the previously introduced classical obesity indices such as W/H, D2I and FMI during the differential diagnosis of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- children.

Keywords: children, hip circumference, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, waist circumference

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