Search results for: fault prediction

Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

Abstract:

Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Mina Jafari, Kobra Hamraee, Saied Hossein Hosseini

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The prediction of breast cancer disease is one of the challenges in medicine. In this paper we collected 528 records of women’s information who live in Kabul including demographic, life style, diet and pregnancy data. There are many classification algorithm in breast cancer prediction and tried to find the best model with most accurate result and lowest error rate. We evaluated some other common supervised algorithms in data mining to find the best model in prediction of breast cancer disease among afghan women living in Kabul regarding to momography result as target variable. For evaluating these algorithms we used Cross Validation which is an assured method for measuring the performance of models. After comparing error rate and accuracy of three models: Decision Tree, Naive Bays and Rule Induction, Decision Tree with accuracy of 94.06% and error rate of %15 is found the best model to predicting breast cancer disease based on the health care records.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer, probability, data mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Jia-Shiun Chen, Quoc-Viet Huynh

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This work develops a flexible-body dynamic model of an all-terrain vehicle (ATV), capable of recovering dynamic stresses while the ATV travels on random bumpy roads. The fatigue life of components is forecasted as well. While considering the interaction between dynamic forces and structure deformation, the proposed model achieves a highly accurate structure stress prediction and fatigue life prediction. During the simulation, stress time history of the ATV structure is retrieved for life prediction. Finally, the hot sports of the ATV frame are located, and the frame life for combined road conditions is forecasted, i.e. 25833.6 hr. If the usage of vehicle is eight hours daily, the total vehicle frame life is 8.847 years. Moreover, the reaction force and deformation due to the dynamic motion can be described more accurately by using flexible body dynamics than by using rigid-body dynamics. Based on recommendations made in the product design stage before mass production, the proposed model can significantly lower development and testing costs.

Keywords: flexible-body dynamics, veicle, dynamics, fatigue, durability

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: A. Asaga, N. I. Basuki

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The research area is located in Cisarua, Bogor Regency, West Java, with 12,8 km2 wide. This area belongs to mining region of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. The purpose of this research is to study geological condition, alteration type and pattern, and type of mineralization. Geomorphology of the research area is at young to mature stage, which can be divided into Ciparigi’s Parasite Volcanic Cone Unit, Ciparigi Caldera Valley Unit, Ciparigi Caldera Rim Hill Unit, and Pongkor Volcanic Hill. Stratigraphy of the research area consist of five units, they are Laharic Breccia (Pliocene), Pyroclastic Breccia, Lapilli Tuff, Flow Tuff, Fall Tuff, and Andesite Lava (Pleistocene). Based on mineral composition, it is interpreted that there is magma composition changing from rhyolite to andesitic. Geological structures in the research area are caused by NE-SW and N-S stress direction; they are Ciparay Right Strike-Slip Fault (Pliocene), Cisarua Right Strike-Slip Fault, G. Singa Left Strike-Slip Fault, and Cinyuncung Right Strike-Slip Fault (Pleistocene). Weak to strong hydrothermal alteration can be found in the research area.They are Chlorite ± Smectite ± Halloysite Zone, Smectite - Illite - Quartz Zone, Smectite - Kaolinite - Illite - Chlorite Zone, and Smectite - Chlorite - Calcite - Quartz Zone. The distribution and assemblage of alteration minerals is controlled by lithology and geological structures in Pleistocene. Mineralization produce ore minerals, those are pyrite, marcasite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, galena, and chalcocite. There are calcite and quartz veins that show colloform, comb, and crystalline textures. Hydrothermal alteration assemblages, ore minerals, and cavity filling textures suggest that mineralization type in research area is epithermal low sulphidation.

Keywords: Pongkor, hydrothermal alteration, epithermal, geochemistry

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Ahmad Shukri Mohd Noor, Emma Ahmad Sirajudin, Rabiei Mamat

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Pertaining to a particular Marine interest, the process of data sampling could take years before a study can be concluded. Therefore, the need for a robust backup system for the data is invariably implicit. In recent advancement of Marine applications, more functionalities and tools are integrated to assist the work of the researchers. It is anticipated that this modality will continue as research scope widens and intensifies and at the same to follow suit with current technologies and lifestyles. The convenience to collect and share information these days also applies to the work in Marine research. Therefore, Marine system designers should be aware that high availability is a necessary attribute in Marine repository applications as well as a robust backup system for the data. In this paper, the approach to high availability is related both to hardware and software but the focus is more on software. We consider a NABTIC repository system that is primitively built on a single server and does not have replicated components. First, the system is decomposed into separate modules. The modules are placed on multiple servers to create a distributed system. Redundancy is added by placing the copies of the modules on different servers using Neighbor Caring Environment System(NCES) technique. NCER is utilizing parallel replication components mechanism. A background monitoring is established to check servers’ heartbeats to confirm their aliveness. At the same time, a critical adaptive threshold is maintained to make sure a failure is timely detected using Adaptive Fault Detection (AFD). A confirmed failure will set the recovery mode where a selection process will be done before a fail-over server is instructed. In effect, the Marine repository service is continued as the fail-over masks a recent failure. The performance of the new prototype is tested and is confirmed to be more highly available. Furthermore, the downtime is not noticeable as service is immediately restored automatically. The Marine repository system is said to have achieved fault tolerance.

Keywords: availability, fault detection, replication, fault tolerance, marine application

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression

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Authors: D. I. George Amalarethinam, A. Emima

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Educational Data Mining (EDM) is one of the newest topics to emerge in recent years, and it is concerned with developing methods for analyzing various types of data gathered from the educational circle. EDM methods and techniques with machine learning algorithms are used to extract meaningful and usable information from huge databases. For scientists and researchers, realistic applications of Machine Learning in the EDM sectors offer new frontiers and present new problems. One of the most important research areas in EDM is predicting student success. The prediction algorithms and techniques must be developed to forecast students' performance, which aids the tutor, institution to boost the level of student’s performance. This paper examines various classification techniques in prediction methods and data mining tools used in EDM.

Keywords: classification technique, data mining, EDM methods, prediction methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Osung Im, Neha Yadav, Eui Hoon Lee, Joong Hoon Kim

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is commonly used in lots of fields for forecasting. In water resources engineering, forecast of water level or inflow of reservoir is useful for various kind of purposes. Due to advantages of ANN, many papers were written for inflow prediction in river networks, but in this study, ANN is used in urban sewer networks. The growth of severe rain storm in Korea has increased flood damage severely, and the precipitation distribution is getting more erratic. Therefore, effective pump operation in pump station is an essential task for the reduction in urban area. If real time inflow of pump station reservoir can be predicted, it is possible to operate pump effectively for reducing the flood damage. This study used ANN model for pump station reservoir inflow prediction using upstream sewer depth data. For this study, rainfall events, sewer depth, and inflow into Banpo pump station reservoir between years of 2013-2014 were considered. Feed – Forward Back Propagation (FFBF), Cascade – Forward Back Propagation (CFBP), Elman Back Propagation (EBP) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) were used as ANN model for prediction. A comparison of results with ANN model suggests that ANN is a powerful tool for inflow prediction using the sewer depth data.

Keywords: artificial neural network, forecasting, reservoir inflow, sewer depth

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Ayat E. Ali, Christeen R. Aziz, Merna A. Helmy, Mohammed M. Malek, Sherif H. El-Gohary

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Goal: Purpose of the project was to make a plastic surgery prediction by using pre-operative images for the plastic surgeries’ patients and to show this prediction on a screen to compare between the current case and the appearance after the surgery. Methods: To this aim, we implemented a software which used data from the internet for facial skin diseases, skin burns, pre-and post-images for plastic surgeries then the post- surgical prediction is done by using K-nearest neighbor (KNN). So we designed and fabricated a smart mirror divided into two parts a screen and a reflective mirror so patient's pre- and post-appearance will be showed at the same time. Results: We worked on some skin diseases like vitiligo, skin burns and wrinkles. We classified the three degrees of burns using KNN classifier with accuracy 60%. We also succeeded in segmenting the area of vitiligo. Our future work will include working on more skin diseases, classify them and give a prediction for the look after the surgery. Also we will go deeper into facial deformities and plastic surgeries like nose reshaping and face slim down. Conclusion: Our project will give a prediction relates strongly to the real look after surgery and decrease different diagnoses among doctors. Significance: The mirror may have broad societal appeal as it will make the distance between patient's satisfaction and the medical standards smaller.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor (knn), face detection, vitiligo, bone deformity

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model

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Authors: Angeliki Peponi, Paulo Morgado, Jorge Trindade

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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are applied as a robust tool for modeling and forecasting the erosion changes in Costa Caparica, Lisbon, Portugal, for 2021. ANNs present noteworthy advantages compared with other methods used for prediction and decision making in urban coastal areas. Multilayer perceptron type of ANNs was used. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on natural and social forces and dynamic relations in the dune-beach system of the study area. Variations in network’s parameters were performed in order to select the optimum topology of the network. The developed methodology appears fitted to reality; however further steps would make it better suited.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, backpropagation, coastal urban zones, erosion prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: H. Mahdjoub, B. Hamaidi, B. Zerouali, S. Rouabhia

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The issue of fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) has gained widespread industrial interest in process condition monitoring applications. Accordingly, the use of neuro-fuzzy technic seems very promising. This paper treats a diagnosis modeling a strategic equipment of an industrial installation. We propose a diagnostic tool based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The neuro-fuzzy network provides an abductive diagnosis. Moreover, it takes into account the uncertainties on the maintenance knowledge by giving a fuzzy characterization of each cause. This work was carried out with real data of a lubrication circuit from the gas turbine. The machine of interest is a gas turbine placed in a gas compressor station at South Industrial Centre (SIC Hassi Messaoud Ouargla, Algeria). We have defined the zones of good and bad functioning, and the results are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method.

Keywords: fault detection and diagnosis, lubrication system, turbine, ANFIS, training, pattern recognition

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Authors: Sumit Sen, Sohan Khedekar, Umang Shinde, Shivam Bhargava

Abstract:

This study has been undertaken to investigate whether the deep learning models are able to predict the future stock prices by training the model with the historical stock price data. Since this work required time series analysis, various models are present today to perform time series analysis such as Recurrent Neural Network LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet. Applying these models the movement of stock price of stocks are predicted and also tried to provide the future prediction of the stock price of a stock. Final product will be a stock price prediction web application that is developed for providing the user the ease of analysis of the stocks and will also provide the predicted stock price for the next seven days.

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Deep Learning, Long Short Term Memory, Time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Khaled Yahia

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of stator faults diagnosis in induction motors. Using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for the current Park’s vector modulus (CPVM) analysis, the inter-turn short-circuit faults diagnosis can be achieved. This method is based on the decomposition of the CPVM signal, where wavelet approximation and detail coefficients of this signal have been extracted. The energy evaluation of a known bandwidth detail permits to define a fault severity factor (FSF). This method has been tested through the simulation of an induction motor using a mathematical model based on the winding-function approach. Simulation, as well as experimental, results show the effectiveness of the used method.

Keywords: induction motors (IMs), inter-turn short-circuits diagnosis, discrete wavelet transform (DWT), current park’s vector modulus (CPVM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 569

Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar

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In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Soulef Amamria, Mohamed Sadok Bensalem, Mohamed Ghanmi

Abstract:

The structural and sedimentological study of fault-related- folds in the Southern Tunisian Atlas is distinguished by a special geometry of the gravitational structures. This distinct geometry is observable in the example of a flap structure in Jebel Ben Zannouch with the formation of a stuck syncline. This geometry can be explained by the mechanism of major thrusting in Orbata anticline in the occidental extremity of Gafsa chains, with asymmetrical flank dips and hinge migration kinematics. These kinematics was originally controlled by the Breakthrough structure; the study of this special geometry of gravity flap structure depends on the sedimentation domain, shortening ratios, and erosion speed. This study constitutes one of the complete examples of kinematic model validation on a field scale.

Keywords: fault-related-folds, southern Tunisian Atlas, flap structure, breakthrough

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Kisan Sarda, Bhavika Shingote

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This paper aims to evaluate regression modelling for prediction of Energy storage of solar photovoltaic (PV) system using Semi parametric regression techniques because there are some parameters which are known while there are some unknown parameters like humidity, dust etc. Here irradiation of solar energy is different for different places on the basis of Latitudes, so by finding out areas which give more storage we can implement PV systems at those places and our need of energy will be fulfilled. This regression modelling is done for daily, monthly and seasonal prediction of solar energy storage. In this, we have used R modules for designing the algorithm. This algorithm will give the best comparative results than other regression models for the solar PV cell energy storage.

Keywords: semi parametric regression, photovoltaic (PV) system, regression modelling, irradiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: K. Yahia, A. Titaouine, A. Ghoggal, S. E. Zouzou, F. Benchabane

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of stator faults diagnosis in induction motors. Using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for the current Park’s vector modulus (CPVM) analysis, the inter-turn short-circuit faults diagnosis can be achieved. This method is based on the decomposition of the CPVM signal, where wavelet approximation and detail coefficients of this signal have been extracted. The energy evaluation of a known bandwidth detail permits to define a fault severity factor (FSF). This method has been tested through the simulation of an induction motor using a mathematical model based on the winding-function approach. Simulation, as well as experimental, results show the effectiveness of the used method.

Keywords: Induction Motors (IMs), inter-turn short-circuits diagnosis, Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Current Park’s Vector Modulus (CPVM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 553

Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

Abstract:

Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: spatial information network, traffic prediction, wavelet decomposition, time series model

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Kuo-Chun Chien, Chia-Hui Chang, Ren-Der Sun

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Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is a subtask for legal AI. Its main purpose is to use the facts of a case to predict the judgment result. In Taiwan's criminal procedure, when prosecutors complete the investigation of the case, they will decide whether to prosecute the suspect and which article of criminal law should be used based on the facts and evidence of the case. In this study, we collected 305,240 indictments from the public inquiry system of the procuratorate of the Ministry of Justice, which included 169 charges and 317 articles from 21 laws. We take the crime facts in the indictments as the main input to jointly learn the prediction model for law source, article, and charge simultaneously based on the pre-trained Bert model. For single article cases where the frequency of the charge and article are greater than 50, the prediction performance of law sources, articles, and charges reach 97.66, 92.22, and 60.52 macro-f1, respectively. To understand the big performance gap between articles and charges, we used a bipartite graph to visualize the relationship between the articles and charges, and found that the reason for the poor prediction performance was actually due to the wording precision. Some charges use the simplest words, while others may include the perpetrator or the result to make the charges more specific. For example, Article 284 of the Criminal Law may be indicted as “negligent injury”, "negligent death”, "business injury", "driving business injury", or "non-driving business injury". As another example, Article 10 of the Drug Hazard Control Regulations can be charged as “Drug Control Regulations” or “Drug Hazard Control Regulations”. In order to solve the above problems and more accurately predict the article and charge, we plan to include the article content or charge names in the input, and use the sentence-pair classification method for question-answer problems in the BERT model to improve the performance. We will also consider a sequence-to-sequence approach to charge prediction.

Keywords: legal judgment prediction, deep learning, natural language processing, BERT, data visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Oluseyi Adunola Bamisaiye

Abstract:

The frequency of occurrence of earth tremor in Nigeria has increased tremendously in recent years. Slow earthquakes/ tremor have preceded some large earthquakes in some other regions of the world and the Nigerian case may not be an exception. Timely and careful investigation of these tremors may reveal their relation to large earthquakes and provides important clues to constrain the slip rates on tectonic faults. Thus making it imperative to keep under watch and also study carefully the tectonically active terrains within the country, in order to adequately forecast, prescribe mitigation measures and in order to avoid a major disaster. This report provides new evidence of a slow slip transient in a strongly locked seismogenic zone of the Okemesi fold belt. The aim of this research is to investigate the different methods of earth tremor monitoring using fault slip analysis and mapping of Okemesi hills, which has been the most recent epicenter to most of the recent tremors.

Keywords: earth tremor, fault slip, intraplate activities, plate tectonics

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Mehdi Mirzaei Alavijeh, Farzad Jalilian

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Background: Marijuana is the most widely used illicit drug worldwide, especially among adolescents and young adults, which can cause numerous complications. The aim of this study was to determine the pattern, motivation use, and factors related to marijuana use among Iranian youths based on the integrative model of behavioral prediction Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 174 youths marijuana user in Kermanshah County and Isfahan County, during summer 2014 which was selected with the convenience sampling for participation in this study. A self-reporting questionnaire was applied for collecting data. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 using bivariate correlations and linear regression statistical tests. Results: The mean marijuana use of respondents was 4.60 times at during week [95% CI: 4.06, 5.15]. Linear regression statistical showed, the structures of integrative model of behavioral prediction accounted for 36% of the variation in the outcome measure of the marijuana use at during week (R2 = 36% & P < 0.001); and among them attitude, marijuana refuse, and subjective norms were a stronger predictors. Conclusion: Comprehensive health education and prevention programs need to emphasize on cognitive factors that predict youth’s health-related behaviors. Based on our findings it seems, designing educational and behavioral intervention for reducing positive belief about marijuana, marijuana self-efficacy refuse promotion and reduce subjective norms encourage marijuana use has an effective potential to protect youths marijuana use.

Keywords: marijuana, youth, integrative model of behavioral prediction, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 554

Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

Abstract:

This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Marjila Burhanzoi, Kenta Onohara, Tomoaki Ikegami

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Faults in photovoltaic (PV) modules should be detected to the greatest extent as early as possible. For that conventional fault detection methods such as electrical characterization, visual inspection, infrared (IR) imaging, ultraviolet fluorescence and electroluminescence (EL) imaging are used, but they either fail to detect the location or category of fault, or they require expensive equipment and are not convenient for onsite application. Hence, these methods are not convenient to use for monitoring small-scale PV systems. Therefore, low cost and efficient inspection techniques with the ability of onsite application are indispensable for PV modules. In this study in order to establish efficient inspection technique, correlation between faults and magnetic flux density on the surface is of crystalline PV modules are investigated. Magnetic flux on the surface of normal and faulted PV modules is measured under the short circuit and illuminated conditions using two different sensor devices. One device is made of small integrated sensors namely 9-axis motion tracking sensor with a 3-axis electronic compass embedded, an IR temperature sensor, an optical laser position sensor and a microcontroller. This device measures the X, Y and Z components of the magnetic flux density (Bx, By and Bz) few mm above the surface of a PV module and outputs the data as line graphs in LabVIEW program. The second device is made of a laser optical sensor and two magnetic line sensor modules consisting 16 pieces of magnetic sensors. This device scans the magnetic field on the surface of PV module and outputs the data as a 3D surface plot of the magnetic flux intensity in a LabVIEW program. A PC equipped with LabVIEW software is used for data acquisition and analysis for both devices. To show the effectiveness of this method, measured results are compared to those of a normal reference module and their EL images. Through the experiments it was confirmed that the magnetic field in the faulted areas have different profiles which can be clearly identified in the measured plots. Measurement results showed a perfect correlation with the EL images and using position sensors it identified the exact location of faults. This method was applied on different modules and various faults were detected using it. The proposed method owns the ability of on-site measurement and real-time diagnosis. Since simple sensors are used to make the device, it is low cost and convenient to be sued by small-scale or residential PV system owners.

Keywords: fault diagnosis, fault location, integrated sensors, PV modules

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: K. Yahia, M. Sahraoui, A. Guettaf

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of stator faults diagnosis in induction motors. Using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for the current Park’s vector modulus (CPVM) analysis, the inter-turn short-circuit faults diagnosis can be achieved. This method is based on the decomposition of the CPVM signal, where wavelet approximation and detail coefficients of this signal have been extracted. The energy evaluation of a known bandwidth detail permits to define a fault severity factor (FSF). This method has been tested through the simulation of an induction motor using a mathematical model based on the winding-function approach. Simulation, as well as experimental results, show the effectiveness of the used method.

Keywords: induction motors (IMs), inter-turn short-circuits diagnosis, discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Current Park’s Vector Modulus (CPVM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Nastaran Cheshmehkaboodi, Lotfi Guizani, Noureddine Ghlamallah

Abstract:

Seismic isolation proves to be a powerful technology in reducing seismic hazards and enhancing overall structural resilience. However, the performance of the technology can be influenced by various factors, including seismic inputs and soil conditions. This research aims to investigate the effects of moderate and strong earthquakes associated with different distances of the source on the seismic responses of conventional and isolated bridges, considering the soil-structure interaction effects. Two groups of moderate and strong near-fault records are applied to the conventional and isolated bridges, with and without considering the underlying soil. For this purpose, using the direct method, three soil properties representing rock, dense, and stiff soils are modeled in Abaqus software. Nonlinear time history analysis is carried out, and structural responses in terms of maximum deck acceleration, deck displacement, and isolation system displacement are studied. The comparison of dynamic responses between both earthquake groups demonstrates a consistent pattern, indicating that the bridge performance and the effects of soil-structure interaction are primarily influenced by the ground motions and their frequency contents. Low ratios of PGA/PGV are found to significantly impact all dynamic responses, resulting in higher force and displacement responses, regardless of the distance associated with the ruptured fault. In addition, displacement responses increase drastically on softer soils. Thus, meticulous consideration is crucial in designing isolation systems to avoid underestimating displacement demands and to ensure sufficient displacement capacity. Despite a lower PGA value in high seismicity areas in this study, the acceleration demand during strong earthquakes is up to 1.3 times higher in conventional bridges and up to 3 times higher in isolated bridges than in moderate earthquakes. Additionally, the displacement demand in strong earthquakes is up to 2 times higher in conventional bridges and up to 5 times higher in isolated bridges compared to moderate earthquakes, highlighting the increased force and displacement demand in strong earthquakes.

Keywords: bridges, seismic isolation, near-fault, earthquake characteristics, soil-structure interaction

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Authors: Anwar H. Radwan, Jan Mrlina, El-Sayed A. Issawy, Ali Rayan, Salah M. Mahmoud

Abstract:

Geodynamic investigations in the Aswan Lake region were started after the M=5.5 earthquake in 1981, triggered by the lake water fluctuations. Besides establishing the seismological networks, also the geodetic observations focused on the Kalabsha and Sayal fault zones were started. It was found that the Kalabsha fault is an active dextral strike-slip with normal component indicating uplift on its southern side. However, the annual velocity rates in both components do not exceed 2 mm/y, and do not therefore represent extremely active faulting. We also launched gravity monitoring in 1997, and performed another two campaigns in 2000 and 2002. The observed non- tidal temporal gravity changes indicate rather the flood water infiltration into the porous Nubian sandstone, than tectonic stress effect. The station nearest to the lake exhibited about 60 μGal positive gravity change within the 1997-2002 period.

Keywords: gravity monitoring, surface movements, Lake Aswan, groundwater change

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

Abstract:

Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Syamala Krishnannair

Abstract:

A multivariate statistical process monitoring methodology using dissimilarity scale-based singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is proposed for the detection and diagnosis of process faults in the base metal flotation plant. Process faults are detected based on the multi-level decomposition of process signals by SSA using the dissimilarity structure of the process data and the subsequent monitoring of the multiscale signals using the unified monitoring index which combines T² with SPE. Contribution plots are used to identify the root causes of the process faults. The overall results indicated that the proposed technique outperformed the conventional multivariate techniques in the detection and diagnosis of the process faults in the flotation plant.

Keywords: fault detection, fault diagnosis, process monitoring, dissimilarity scale

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