Search results for: extreme hazards

Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

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Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

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Authors: Gangadhara Rao K.

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In Andhra Pradesh traditionally, the flood problem had been confined to the flooding of smaller rivers. But the drainage problem in the coastal delta zones has worsened, multiplying the destructive potential of cyclones and increasing flood hazards. As a result of floods, the people living around these areas are forced to move out of their traditions in search of higher altitude places. This paper will be discussing about suitability of techniques used in Bangladesh in context of Godavari river basin in Andhra Pradesh. The study considers social, physical and environmental conditions of the region. The methods for achieving this objective includes the study of both cases from Bangladesh and Andhra Pradesh. Comparison with the existing techniques and suit to our requirements and context. If successful, we can adopt those techniques and this might help the people living in riverfront areas to stay safe during the floods without losing their traditional lands.

Keywords: amphibious, bouyancy, floating, architecture, flood resistent

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: U. Thisara G. Perera, C. M. Kanchana N. K. Chandrasekara

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Dengue is an epidemic which is spread by Aedes Egyptai and Aedes Albopictus mosquitoes. The cases of dengue show a dramatic growth rate of the epidemic in urban and semi urban areas spatially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Incidence of dengue has become a prominent reason for hospitalization and deaths in Asian countries, including Sri Lanka. During the last decade the dengue epidemic began to spread from urban to semi-urban and then to rural settings of the country. The highest number of dengue infected patients was recorded in Sri Lanka in the year 2016 and the highest number of patients was identified in Colombo district. Together with the commercial, industrial, and other supporting services, the district suffers from rapid urbanization and high population density. Thus, drainage and waste disposal patterns of the people in this area exert an additional pressure to the environment. The district is situated in the wet zone and thus low lying lands constitute the largest portion of the district. This situation additionally facilitates mosquito breeding sites. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to assess the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of dengue epidemic in Kolonnawa MOH area (Medical Officer of Health) in the district of Colombo. The study was carried out using 615 recorded dengue cases in Kollonnawa MOH area during the south east monsoon season from May to September 2016. The Moran’s I and Kernel density estimation were used as analytical methods. The analysis of data was accomplished through the integrated use of ArcGIS 10.1 software packages along with Microsoft Excel analytical tool. Field observation was also carried out for verification purposes during the study period. Results of the Moran’s I index indicates that the spatial distribution of dengue cases showed a cluster distribution pattern across the area. Kernel density estimation emphasis that dengue cases are high where the population has gathered, especially in areas comprising housing schemes. Results of the Kernel Density estimation further discloses that hot spots of dengue epidemic are located in the western half of the Kolonnawa MOH area, which is close to the Colombo municipal boundary and there is a significant relationship with high population density and unplanned urban land use practices. Results of the field observation confirm that the drainage systems in these areas function poorly and careless waste disposal methods of the people further encourage mosquito breeding sites. This situation has evolved harmfully from a public health issue to a social problem, which ultimately impacts on the economy and social lives of the country.

Keywords: Dengue epidemic, health hazards, Kernel density, Moran’s I, Sri Lanka

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Authors: H. Aburideh, Z.Tigrine, D. Ziou, S. Hout, R. Bellatreche, D. Belhout, Z. Belgroun, M. Abbas

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Faced with climate hazards in recent decades and the constant increase of the population, Algeria is making considerable efforts to provide water resources and water availability, both for its nascent industry, agriculture and for the drinking water supply of cities and arid region of the country. Following a remarkable worldwide technological breakthrough in seawater and brackish water desalination, known in recent years, the specialists have seen that the use of desalination of sea water in Algeria is a promising alternative as long as it has a coastline of 1200 km. Seawater is clean and virtually inexhaustible resource; mainly for population and industry that have high water consumption and are close to the sea. The purpose of this work is to present information on the number of sea water desalination stations and demineralization plants existing in Algeria. The constraints related to the operation of certain stations; those which are operational, those that are not operational as well as the seawater desalination program that was hired to cover 49 desalination plants across the country at the end of 2019 with the aim of increasing and diversifying water resources.

Keywords: desalination, water, membrane, demineralization

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Authors: Kyujin Shim

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This study explores how individual motivations in political psychology will lead to political expression and online discourse, and how those online political discourses result in individuals’ exposure to extreme/ personally-entertaining/ disinhibiting content. This study argues that a new framework beyond the conventional paradigm (e.g., selective exposure based on partisanship/ ideology) is needed for better grasp of non-ideological/ anarchic, and/or of nonpartisan yet anonymity-/ extremity-/ disinhibition-related online behaviors regarding political conversations. Further, this study proposes a new definition of ‘selective exposure,’ with special attention to online efficacy and psychological motivations/gratifications sought in the online sphere.

Keywords: selective exposure, fear of isolation, political psychology, online discourse

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Authors: Rajender Dahiya

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Investigation outcomes of major process incidents have been consistent for decades and validate that the causes and consequences are often identical. The debate remains as we continue to experience similar process incidents even with enormous development of new tools, technologies, industry standards, codes, regulations, and learning processes? The objective of this paper is to investigate the most common causes of major industrial incidents and reveal industry challenges and best practices to prevent such incidents. The author, in his current role, performs audits and inspections of a variety of high-hazard industries in North America, including petroleum refineries, chemicals, petrochemicals, manufacturing, etc. In this paper, he shares real life scenarios, examples, and case studies from high hazards operating facilities including key challenges and best practices. This case study will provide a clear understanding of the importance of near miss incident investigation. The incident was a Safe operating limit excursion. The case describes the deficiencies in management programs, the competency of employees, and the culture of the corporation that includes hazard identification and risk assessment, maintaining the integrity of safety-critical equipment, operating discipline, learning from process safety near misses, process safety competency, process safety culture, audits, and performance measurement. Failure to identify the hazards and manage the risks of highly hazardous materials and processes is one of the primary root-causes of an incident, and failure to learn from past incidents is the leading cause of the recurrence of incidents. Several investigations of major incidents discovered that each showed several warning signs before occurring, and most importantly, all were preventable. The author will discuss why preventable incidents were not prevented and review the mutual causes of learning failures from past major incidents. The leading causes of past incidents are summarized below. Management failure to identify the hazard and/or mitigate the risk of hazardous processes or materials. This process starts early in the project stage and continues throughout the life cycle of the facility. For example, a poorly done hazard study such as HAZID, PHA, or LOPA is one of the leading causes of the failure. If this step is performed correctly, then the next potential cause is. Management failure to maintain the integrity of safety critical systems and equipment. In most of the incidents, mechanical integrity of the critical equipment was not maintained, safety barriers were either bypassed, disabled, or not maintained. The third major cause is Management failure to learn and/or apply learning from the past incidents. There were several precursors before those incidents. These precursors were either ignored altogether or not taken seriously. This paper will conclude by sharing how a well-implemented operating management system, good process safety culture, and competent leaders and staff contributed to managing the risks to prevent major incidents.

Keywords: incident investigation, risk management, loss prevention, process safety, accident prevention

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Authors: Naima Umar

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Mid-1960’s has been landmark in the history of Indian agriculture. It was in 1966-67 when a New Agricultural Strategy was put into practice to tide over chronic shortages of food grains in the country. This strategy adopted was the use High-Yielding Varieties (HYV) of seeds (wheat and rice), which was popularly known as the Green Revolution. This phase of agricultural development has saved us from hunger and starvation and made the peasants more confident than ever before, but it has also created a number of socio-economic and environmental implications such as the reduction in area under forest, salinization, waterlogging, soil erosion, lowering of underground water table, soil, water and air pollution, decline in soil fertility, silting of rivers and emergence of several diseases and health hazards. The state of Uttar Pradesh in the north is bounded by the country of Nepal, the states of Uttrakhand on the northwest, Haryana on the west, Rajasthan on the southwest, Madhya Pradesh on the south and southwest, and Bihar on the east. It is situated between 23052´N and 31028´N latitudes and 7703´ and 84039´E longitudes. It is the fifth largest state of the country in terms of area, and first in terms of population. Forming the part of Ganga plain the state is crossed by a number of rivers which originate from the snowy peaks of Himalayas. The fertile plain of the Ganga has led to a high concentration of population with high density and the dominance of agriculture as an economic activity. Present paper highlights the negative impact of new agricultural technology on health of the people and environment and will attempt to find out factors which are responsible for these implications. Karl Pearson’s Correlation coefficient technique has been applied by selecting 1 dependent variable (i.e. Productivity Index) and some independent variables which may impact crop productivity in the districts of the state. These variables have categorized as: X1 (Cropping Intensity), X2 (Net irrigated area), X3 (Canal Irrigated area), X4 (Tube-well Irrigated area), X5 (Irrigated area by other sources), X6 (Consumption of chemical fertilizers (NPK) Kg. /ha.), X7 (Number of wooden plough), X8 (Number of iron plough), X9 (Number of harrows and cultivators), X10 (Number of thresher machines), X11(Number of sprayers), X12 (Number of sowing instruments), X13 (Number of tractors) and X14 (Consumption of insecticides and pesticides (in Kg. /000 ha.). The entire data during 2001-2005 and 2006- 2010 have been taken and 5 years average value is taken into consideration, based on secondary sources obtained from various government, organizations, master plan report, economic abstracts, district census handbooks and village and town directories etc,. put on a standard computer programmed SPSS and the results obtained have been properly tabulated.

Keywords: agricultural technology, environmental implications, health hazards, socio-economic problems

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Authors: Jeongyeob Hong, Myeonghoon Park, Taeson Yoon

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After the advent of Achaeans which utilize different metabolism pathway and contain conspicuously different cellular structure, they have been recognized as possible materials for developing quality of human beings. Among diverse Achaeans, in this paper, we compared 16s RNA Sequences of four different species of Thermococcus: Achaeans genus specialized in sulfur-dealing metabolism. Four Species, Barophilus, Kodakarensis, Hydrothermalis, and Onnurineus, live near the hydrothermal vent that emits extreme amount of sulfur and heat. By comparing ribosomal sequences of aforementioned four species, we found similarities in their sequences and expressed protein, enabling us to expect that certain ribosomal sequence or proteins are vital for their survival. Apriori algorithms and Decision Tree were used. for comparison.

Keywords: Achaeans, Thermococcus, apriori algorithm, decision tree

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Authors: Hsiao-Ting Huang, Chang Hsueh-Sheng

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Taiwan is an island country which is affected by the monsoon deeply. Under the climate change, the frequency of extreme rainstorm by typhoon becomes more and more often Since 2000. When the extreme rainstorm comes, it will cause serious damage in Taiwan, especially in urban area. It is suffered by the flooding and the government take it as the urgent issue. On the past, the land use of urban planning does not take flood-detention into consideration. With the development of the city, the impermeable surface increase and most of the people live in urban area. It means there is the highly vulnerability in the urban area, but it cannot deal with the surface runoff and the flooding. However, building the detention pond in hydraulic engineering way to solve the problem is not feasible in urban area. The land expropriation is the most expensive construction of the detention pond in the urban area, and the government cannot afford it. Therefore, the management strategy of flooding in urban area should use the existing resource, public facilities land. It can archive the performance of flood-detention through providing the public facilities land with the detention function. As multi-use public facilities land, it also can show the combination of the land use and water agency. To this purpose, this research generalizes the factors of multi-use for public facilities land as flood-detention space with literature review. The factors can be divided into two categories: environmental factors and conditions of public facilities. Environmental factors including three factors: the terrain elevation, the inundation potential and the distance from the drainage system. In the other hand, there are six factors for conditions of public facilities, including area, building rate, the maximum of available ratio etc. Each of them will be according to it characteristic to given the weight for the land use suitability analysis. This research selects the rules of combination from the logical combination. After this process, it can be classified into three suitability levels. Then, three suitability levels will input to the physiographic inundation model for simulating the evaluation of flood-detention respectively. This study tries to respond the urgent issue in urban area and establishes a model of multi-use for public facilities land as flood-detention through the systematic research process of this study. The result of this study can tell which combination of the suitability level is more efficacious. Besides, The model is not only standing on the side of urban planners but also add in the point of view from water agency. Those findings may serve as basis for land use indicators and decision-making references for concerned government agencies.

Keywords: flooding management strategy, land use suitability analysis, multi-use for public facilities land, physiographic inundation model

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Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

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Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, D. Meena

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Growth of traffic brings various negative effects, such as road accidents. To avoid such problems, a model is developed for the purpose of highway safety. In such areas, fuzzy logic is the most well-known simulation in the larger field. A model is accomplished for hilly and steep terrain based on Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), for which output is super elevation and input data is horizontal radius, vertical gradient, accident rate (AR). This result shows that the system can be efficaciously applied as for highway safety tool distinguishing hazards components correlated to the characteristics of the highway and has a great influence to the making of decision for accident precaution in transportation models. From this model, a positive relationship between geometric elements, accident rate, and super elevation is also identified.

Keywords: accident rate, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, gradient, radius, super elevation

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Authors: G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze, B. Matsaberidze

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A fuzzy vehicle routing problem is considered in the possibilistic environment. A new criterion, maximization of expectation of reliability for movement on closed routes is constructed. The objective of the research is to implement a two-stage scheme for solution of this problem. Based on the algorithm of preferences on the first stage, the sample of so-called “promising” routes will be selected. On the second stage, for the selected promising routes new bi-criteria problem will be solved - minimization of total traveled distance and maximization of reliability of routes. The problem will be stated as a fuzzy-partitioning problem. Two possible solutions of this scheme are considered.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, fuzzy partitioning problem, multiple-criteria optimization, possibility theory

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Authors: Márcia Afonso, Marisa Dinis-Almeida, Cristina Fael

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Climate change, namely precipitation patterns alteration, has led to extreme conditions such as floods and droughts. In turn, excessive construction has led to the waterproofing of the soil, increasing the surface runoff and decreasing the groundwater recharge capacity. The permeable pavements used in areas with low traffic lead to a decrease in the probability of floods peaks occurrence and the sediments reduction and pollutants transport, ensuring rainwater quality improvement. This study aims to evaluate the porous asphalt performance, developed in the laboratory, with addition of cellulosic fibres. One of the main objectives of cellulosic fibres use is to stop binder drainage, preventing its loss during storage and transport. Comparing to the conventional porous asphalt the cellulosic fibres addition improved the porous asphalt performance. The cellulosic fibres allowed the bitumen content increase, enabling retention and better aggregates coating and, consequently, a greater mixture durability. With this solution, it is intended to develop better practices of resilience and adaptation to the extreme climate changes and respond to the sustainability current demands, through the eco-friendly materials use. The mix design was performed for different size aggregates (with fine aggregates – PA1 and with coarse aggregates – PA2). The percentage influence of the fibres to be used was studied. It was observed that overall, the binder drainage decreases as the cellulose fibres percentage increases. It was found that the PA2 mixture obtained most binder drainage relative to PA1 mixture, irrespective of the fibres percentage used. Subsequently, the performance was evaluated through laboratory tests of indirect tensile stiffness modulus, water sensitivity, permeability and permanent deformation. The stiffness modulus for the two mixtures groups (with and without cellulosic fibres) presented very similar values between them. For the water sensitivity test it was observed that porous asphalt containing more fine aggregates are more susceptible to the water presence than mixtures with coarse aggregates. The porous asphalt with coarse aggregates have more air voids which allow water to pass easily leading to ITSR higher values. In the permeability test was observed that asphalt porous without cellulosic fibres presented had lower permeability than asphalt porous with cellulosic fibres. The resistance to permanent deformation results indicates better behaviour of porous asphalt with cellulosic fibres, verifying a bigger rut depth in porous asphalt without cellulosic fibres. In this study, it was observed that porous asphalt with bitumen higher percentages improve the performance to permanent deformation. This fact was only possible due to the bitumen retention by the cellulosic fibres.

Keywords: binder drainage, cellulosic fibres, permanent deformation, porous asphalt

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Authors: Luke McGowan, David Pickernell, Martini Battisti

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In this paper, Adversity Triggers were explored through the lens of Organisational Resilience. Adversity Triggers are contextualized by temporal factors, thus, naturally aligning to Resilience literature. Resilience has been chosen as the theoretical framework as risk management approaches are often not geared towards providing meaningful responses to high-impact, low-probability events. Adversity Triggers and Organisational Resilience both consider temporal factors which enabled investigation of each phase of recovery. A systematic literature was employed to assess previous literature and define further areas of research. The systematic literature review method was chosen to catalogue and identify gaps in current literature.

Keywords: adversity triggers, crisis, extreme events, organisational resilience, resilience

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Authors: M. Aouimeur

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The environmental risks of a dam and particularly the security in the Valley downstream of it,, is a very complex problem. Integrated management and risk-sharing become more and more indispensable. The definition of "vulnerability “concept can provide assistance to controlling the efficiency of protective measures and the characterization of each valley relatively to the floods's risk. Security can be enhanced through the integrated land management. The social sciences may be associated to the operational systems of civil protection, in particular warning networks. The passage of extreme floods in the site of the dam causes the rupture of this structure and important damages downstream the dam. The river bed could be damaged by erosion if it is not well protected. Also, we may encounter some scouring and flooding problems in the downstream area of the dam. Therefore, the protection of the dam is crucial. It must have an energy dissipator in a specific place. The basin of dissipation plays a very important role for the security of the dam and the protection of the environment against floods downstream the dam. It allows to dissipate the potential energy created by the dam with the passage of the extreme flood on the weir and regularize in a natural manner and with more security the discharge or elevation of the water plan on the crest of the weir, also it permits to reduce the speed of the flow downstream the dam, in order to obtain an identical speed to the river bed. The problem of the dimensioning of a classic dissipation basin is in the determination of the necessary parameters for the dimensioning of this structure. This communication presents a simple graphical method, that is fast and complete, and a methodology which determines the main features of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for sizing the classic dissipation basin. This graphical method takes into account the constraints imposed by the reality of the terrain or the practice such as the one related to the topography of the site, the preservation of the environment equilibrium and the technical and economic side.This methodology is to impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump as a hypothesis (free design) to determine all the others parameters of classical dissipation basin. We can impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump that is equal to a selected value or to a certain percentage of the upstream total head created by the dam. With the parameter DH+ =(DH/k),(k: critical depth),the elaborate graphical representation allows to find the other parameters, the multiplication of these parameters by k gives the main characteristics of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for the dimensioning of classic dissipation basin.This solution is often preferred for sizing the dissipation basins of small concrete dams. The results verification and their comparison to practical data, confirm the validity and reliability of the elaborate graphical method.

Keywords: dimensioning, energy dissipation basin, hydraulic jump, protection of the environment

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Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky

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Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 ^oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m² on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m². In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 ^oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 ^oC to 4.8 ^oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m² causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 ^oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 ^oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.

Keywords: greenhouse radiative force, greenhouse air temperature, greenhouse thermodynamics, greenhouse historical, greenhouse radiative force on ice, greenhouse radiative force on plants, greenhouse radiative force in air

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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Authors: Tingneyuc Sekac, Sujoy Kumar Jana, Indrajit Pal, Dilip Kumar Pal

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Tectonism induced Tsunami, landslide, ground shaking leading to liquefaction, infrastructure collapse, conflagration are the common earthquake hazards that are experienced worldwide. Apart from human casualty, the damage to built-up infrastructures like roads, bridges, buildings and other properties are the collateral episodes. The appropriate planning must precede with a view to safeguarding people’s welfare, infrastructures and other properties at a site based on proper evaluation and assessments of the potential level of earthquake hazard. The information or output results can be used as a tool that can assist in minimizing risk from earthquakes and also can foster appropriate construction design and formulation of building codes at a particular site. Different disciplines adopt different approaches in assessing and monitoring earthquake hazard throughout the world. For the present study, GIS and Remote Sensing potentials were utilized to evaluate and assess earthquake hazards of the study region. Subsurface geology and geomorphology were the common features or factors that were assessed and integrated within GIS environment coupling with seismicity data layers like; Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), historical earthquake magnitude and earthquake depth to evaluate and prepare liquefaction potential zones (LPZ) culminating in earthquake hazard zonation of our study sites. The liquefaction can eventuate in the aftermath of severe ground shaking with amenable site soil condition, geology and geomorphology. The latter site conditions or the wave propagation media were assessed to identify the potential zones. The precept has been that during any earthquake event the seismic wave is generated and propagates from earthquake focus to the surface. As it propagates, it passes through certain geological or geomorphological and specific soil features, where these features according to their strength/stiffness/moisture content, aggravates or attenuates the strength of wave propagation to the surface. Accordingly, the resulting intensity of shaking may or may not culminate in the collapse of built-up infrastructures. For the case of earthquake hazard zonation, the overall assessment was carried out through integrating seismicity data layers with LPZ. Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE) with Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was adopted for this study. It is a GIS technology that involves integration of several factors (thematic layers) that can have a potential contribution to liquefaction triggered by earthquake hazard. The factors are to be weighted and ranked in the order of their contribution to earthquake induced liquefaction. The weightage and ranking assigned to each factor are to be normalized with AHP technique. The spatial analysis tools i.e., Raster calculator, reclassify, overlay analysis in ArcGIS 10 software were mainly employed in the study. The final output of LPZ and Earthquake hazard zones were reclassified to ‘Very high’, ‘High’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Low’ and ‘Very Low’ to indicate levels of hazard within a study region.

Keywords: hazard micro-zonation, liquefaction, multi criteria evaluation, tectonism

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, S. Hadjiefthymiades, V. Abramea

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During the last decades, the task of engaging governments, communities and citizens to reduce risk and vulnerability of the populations has made variable progress. Experience has demonstrated that lack of awareness, education and preparedness may result in significant material and other losses both on the onset of the disaster. Schools play a vital role in the community and are important elements of values and culture of the society. A proper school education not only teaches children, but also is a key factor in the promotion of a safety culture into the wider community. In Greece School Earthquake Safety Initiative has been undertaken by Earthquake Planning and Protection Ogranization with specific actions (seminars, lectures, guidelines, educational material, campaigns, national or EU projects, drills etc.). The objective of this initiative is to develop disaster-resilient school communities through awareness, self-help, cooperation and education. School preparedness requires the participation of Principals, teachers, students, parents, and competent authorities. Preparation and earthquake readiness involves: a) learning what should be done before, during, and after earthquake; b) doing or preparing to do these things now, before the next earthquake; and c) developing teachers’ and students’ skills to cope efficiently in case of an earthquake. In the above given framework this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of school community in Greece. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans at elementary and secondary schools. The questionnaires were administered to Principals and teachers from different regions of the country that attend the EPPO national training project 'Earthquake Safety at Schools'. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self protective actions b) existence of emergency planning at home and c) existence of emergency planning at school (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills). Survey results revealed that a high percentage of teachers have taken the appropriate preparedness measures concerning non-structural hazards at schools, emergency school plan and simulation drills every year. In order to improve the action-planning for ongoing school disaster risk reduction, the implementation of earthquake drills, the involvement of students with disabilities and the evaluation of school emergency plans, EPPO participates in E-PreS project. The main objective of this project is to create smart tools which define, simulate and evaluate all hazards emergency steps customized to the unique district and school. The project comes up with a holistic methodology using real-time evaluation involving different categories of actors, districts, steps and metrics. The project is supported by EU Civil Protection Financial Instrument with a duration of two years. Coordinator is the Kapodistrian University of Athens and partners are from four countries; Greece, Italy, Romania and Bulgaria.

Keywords: drills, earthquake, emergency plans, E-PreS project

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Authors: Heba M. Saad Eldien, Ola Abdel-Tawab Hussein, Ahmed Yassein Nassar

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Background: Indomethacin is a non-steroidal anti inflammatory drug. Indomethacin induces an injury to gastrointestinal mucosa in experimental animals and humans and their use is associated with a significant risk of hemorrhage, erosions and perforation of both gastric and intestinal ulcers. The anti-inflammatory action of copper complexes is an important activity of their anti-ulcer effect achieved by their intermediary role as a transport form of copper that allow activation of the several copper-dependent enzymes. Therefore, several copper complexes were synthesized and investigated as promising alternative anti-ulcer therapy. Aim of the work: The purpose of this study was to evaluate a copper chelating complex consisting of egg albumin and copper as one of the copper peptides that can be used as anti-inflammatory agent and effective in ameliorates the hazards of the indomethacin on the histological structure of the fundus of the stomach that could be added to raise the efficacy of the currently used simple and cheap gastric anti-inflammatory drug mucogel. Material &methods: This study was carried out on 40 adult male albino rats,divided equally into 4 groups;Group I(control group) received distilled water,Group II(indomethacin treated group) received (25 mg/kg body weight, oral intubation) once, Group III (mucogel treated group)2 mL/rat once daily, oral incubation, Group IV(copper complex group) 1 mL /rat of 30 gm of copper albumin complex was mixed uniformly with mucogel to 100 mL. Treatment has been started six hour after Induction of Ulcers and continued till the 3rd day. The animals sacrificed and was processed for light, transmission electron microscopy(TEM) and immunostaining for inducible nitric oxide synthase(iNOS). Results: Fundic mucosa of group II, showed exfoliation of epithelial cells lining the gland, discontinuity of surface epithelial cells (ulcer formation), vacuolation and detachment of cells, eosinophilic infiltration and congestion of blood vessels in the lamina propria and submucosa. There was thickening and disarrangement of mucosa, weak positive reaction for PAS and marked increase in the collagen fibers lamina propria and the submucosa of the fundus. TEM revealed degeneration of cheif and parietal cells.Marked increase positive reactive of iNOS in all cells of the fundic gland. Group III showed reconstruction of gastric gland with cystic dilatation and vacuolation, moderate decrease of collagen fibers, reduced the intensity of iNOS while in Group IV healthy mucosa with normal surface lining epithelium and fundic glands, strong positive reaction for PAS, marked decrease of collagen fibers and positive reaction for iNOS. TEM revealed regeneration of cheif and parietal cells. Conclusion: Co treatment of copper-albumin complex seems to be useful for gastric ulcer treatment and ameliorates most of hazards of indomethacin.

Keywords: copper complex, gastric ulcer, indomethacin, rat

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Authors: D. Garg, S. Luthra, A. Haleem

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Reverse logistics (RL) is supposed to be a systematic procedure that helps in improving the environmental hazards and maintain business sustainability for industries. Industries in Indian are now opting for adoption of RL techniques in business. But, RL practices are not popular in Indian industries because of many barriers for its successful implementation. Therefore, need arises to identify and evaluate the barriers to implement RL practices by taking an Indian industries perspective. Literature review approach and case study approach have been adapted to identify relevant barriers to implement RL practices. Further, Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory methodology has been brought into use for evaluating causal relationships among the barriers to implement RL practices. Seven barriers out of ten barriers have been categorized into the cause group and remaining into effect group. This research will help Indian industries to manage these barriers towards effective implementing RL practices.

Keywords: barriers, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), fuzzy set theory, Indian industries, reverse logistics (RL)

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Authors: Md. Nurul Islam Siddique, A. W. Zularisam

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The effect of gradual increase in organic loading rate (OLR) and temperature on biomethanation from petrochemical wastewater treatment was investigated using CSTR. The digester performance was measured at hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 4 to 2d, and start up procedure of the reactor was monitored for 60 days via chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal, biogas and methane production. By enhancing the temperature from 30 to 55 ˚C Thermophilic condition was attained, and pH was adjusted at 7 ± 0.5 during the experiment. Supreme COD removal competence was 98±0.5% (r = 0.84) at an OLR of 7.5 g-COD/Ld and 4d HRT. Biogas and methane yield were logged to an extreme of 0.80 L/g-CODremoved d (r = 0.81), 0.60 L/g-CODremoved d (r = 0.83), and mean methane content of biogas was 65.49%. The full acclimatization was established at 55 ˚C with high COD removal efficiency and biogas production. An OLR of 7.5 g-COD/L d and HRT of 4 days were apposite for petrochemical wastewater treatment.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, petrochemical wastewater, CSTR, methane

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Authors: Saadelnour Abdueljabbar Adam

Abstract:

Wastes from slaughterhouses in most towns in Sudan are often poorly managed and sometimes discharged into adjoining streams due to poor implementation of standards, thus causing environmental and public health hazards and also there is a large amount of manure from dairy farms. This paper presents a solution of organic waste from cow dairy farms and slaughterhouse. We present the findings of experimental investigation of biogas production using cow manure, blood and rumen content were mixed at three proportions :72.3%, 61%, 39% manure, 6%, 8.5%, 22% blood; and 21.7%, 30.5%, 39% rumen content in volume for bio-digester 1,2,3 respectively. This paper analyses the quantitative and qualitative composition of biogas: gas content, and the concentration of methane. The highest biogas output 0.116L/g dry matter from bio-digester1 together with a high-quality biogas of 85% methane Was from the mixture of cow manure with blood and rumen content were mixed at 72.3%manure, 6%blood and 21.7%rumen content which is useful for combustion and energy production. While bio-digester 2 and 3 gave 0.012L/g dry matter and 0.013L/g dry matter respectively with the weak concentration of methane (50%).

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, bio-digester, blood, cow manure, rumen content

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Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

The government and community have raised their awareness of the benefits of water reuse. Deforestation has a significant effect to climate change as it causes the drying out of the tropical rainforest and hence increases the chance of natural hazards. The loss of forests due to natural fire or human factors would be threatening the storage and supply of clean water. In this paper, we will focus on the discussion of the relationship of the natural water collection system, afforestation and country parks towards environmental sustainability and circular economy with a case study of water conservation policy and strategy in Hong Kong and Singapore for further research. The UN General Assembly launched the Water Action Decade in 2018 to mobilize action that will help to tackle the growing challenge of water scarcity through water conservation and protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes.

Keywords: afforestation, environmental sustainability, water conservation, circular economy, climate change, sustainable development goal

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Authors: Ebru Aktepe Erkoç, Atilla Uluğ

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In this research which has been prepared to show the relationship between Gökova Bay’s morphotectonic structure and seismicity, it is clear that there are many active faults in the region. The existence of a thick sedimentary accumulation since Late Quaternary times is obvious as a result of the geophysical workings in the region and the interpretation of seismic data which has been planning to be taken from the Bay. In the regions which have been tectonically active according to the interpretation of the taken data, the existence of the successive earthquakes in the last few years is remarkable. By analyzing large earthquakes affecting the areas remaining inside the sediments in West Anatolian Collapse System, this paper aims to reveal the fault systems constituting earthquakes with the information obtained from this study and to determine seismicity of the present residential areas right next to them. It is also aimed to anticipate the measures to be taken against possible earthquake hazards, to identify these areas posing a risk in terms of residential and urban planning and to determine at least partly the characteristics of the basin.

Keywords: Gökova Bay, sedimentation, seismic, West Anatolian

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Authors: S. Ivanova, K. Ivanov

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Bemitil (2-ethylthiobenzimidazole hydrobromide) is a synthetic adaptogen and actoprotector, with wide-ranging pharmacological activities such as nootropic, antihypoxic, antioxidant, immunostimulant. The intake of Bemitil increases mental and physical performance and could be applied under either normal or extreme conditions. Until 2017 Bemitil was not considered as doping and was used by professional athletes more than 30 years because of its high efficiency and safety. The drug was included in WADA monitoring programme for 2018, and most likely it would be included in WADA Prohibited List for 2019. Usually, a substance/method is included in WADA Prohibited List if it meets any two of the following three criteria: the potential to enhance or enhances sports performance/ potential health risk to the athlete/ violates the spirit of sport. Bemitil has high performance-enhancing potential, but it is also safe- it is controversial whether it should be considered as doping.

Keywords: doping, bemitil, sport, actoprotector

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Authors: Mahtab Abdollahi Sarvi, Siamak Epackachi, Ali Imanpour

Abstract:

Reinforced concrete shear walls are commonly used as the lateral load-resisting system of mid- to high-rise office or residential buildings around the world. Design of such systems is often governed by wind rather than seismic effects, in particular in low-to-moderate seismic regions. The current design philosophy as per the majority of building codes under wind loads require elastic response of lateral load-resisting systems including reinforced concrete shear walls when subjected to the rare design wind load, resulting in significantly large wall sections needed to meet strength requirements and drift limits. The latter can highly influence the design in upper stories due to stringent drift limits specified by building codes, leading to substantial added costs to the construction of the wall. However, such walls may offer limited to moderate over-strength and ductility due to their large reserve capacity provided that they are designed and detailed to appropriately develop such over-strength and ductility under extreme wind loads. This would significantly contribute to reducing construction time and costs, while maintaining structural integrity under gravity and frequently-occurring and less frequent wind events. This paper aims to investigate the over-strength and ductility capacity of several imaginary office buildings located in Edmonton, Canada with a glance at earthquake design philosophy. Selected models are 10- to 25-story buildings with three types of reinforced concrete shear wall configurations including rectangular, barbell, and flanged. The buildings are designed according to National Building Code of Canada. Then fiber-based numerical models of the walls are developed in Perform 3D and by conducting nonlinear static (pushover) analysis, lateral nonlinear behavior of the walls are evaluated. Ductility and over-strength of the structures are obtained based on the results of the pushover analyses. The results confirmed moderate nonlinear capacity of reinforced concrete shear walls under extreme wind loads. This is while lateral displacements of the walls pass the serviceability limit states defined in Pre standard for Performance-Based Wind Design (ASCE). The results indicate that we can benefit the limited nonlinear response observed in the reinforced concrete shear walls to economize the design of such systems under wind loads.

Keywords: concrete shear wall, high-rise buildings, nonlinear static analysis, response modification factor, wind load

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Authors: Salima Bijapuri, Shweta Bhatbolan, Sejalben Patel

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Ergonomics concerns the fitting of the environment and the equipment to the worker. Ergonomic principles can be employed in different dimensions of the industrial sector. Participation of all the stakeholders is the key to the formulation of a multifaceted and comprehensive approach to lessen the burden of occupational hazards. Taking responsibility for one’s own work activities by acquiring sufficient knowledge and potential to influence the practices and outcomes is the basis of participatory ergonomics and even hastens the process to identify workplace hazards. The study was aimed to check how participatory ergonomics can be effective in the management of work-related musculoskeletal disorders. Method: A mega kitchen was identified in a twin city of Karnataka, India. Consent was taken, and the screening of workers was done using observation methods. Kitchen work was structured to include different tasks, which included preparation, cooking, distributing, and serving food, packing food to be delivered to schools, dishwashing, cleaning and maintenance of kitchen and equipment, and receiving and storing raw material. Total 100 workers attended the education session on participatory ergonomics and its role in implementing the correct ergonomic practices, thus preventing WRMSDs. Demographic details and baseline data on related musculoskeletal pain and discomfort were collected using the Nordic pain questionnaire and VAS score pre- and post-study. Monthly visits were made, and the education sessions were reiterated on each visit, thus reminding, correcting, and problem-solving of each worker. After 9 months with a total of 4 such education session, the post education data was collected. The software SPSS 20 was used to analyse the collected data. Results: The majority of them (78%), depending on the availability and feasibility, participated in the intervention workshops were arranged four times. The average age of the participants was 39 years. The percentage of female participants was 79.49%, and 20.51% of participants comprised of males. The Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ) showed that knee pain was the most commonly reported complaint (62%) from the last 12 months with a mean VAS of 6.27, followed by low back pain. Post intervention, the mean VAS Score was reduced significantly to 2.38. The comparison of pre-post scores was made using Wilcoxon matched pairs test. Upon enquiring, it was found that, the participants learned the importance of applying ergonomics at their workplace which inturn was beneficial for them to handle any problems arising at their workplace on their own with self confidence. Conclusion: The participatory ergonomics proved effective with workers of mega kitchen, and it is a feasible and practical approach. The advantage of the given study area was that it had a sophisticated and ergonomically designed workstation; thus it was the lack of education and practical knowledge to use these stations was of utmost need. There was a significant reduction in VAS scores with the implementation of changes in the working style, and the knowledge of ergonomics helped to decrease physical load and improve musculoskeletal health.

Keywords: ergonomic awareness session, mega kitchen, participatory ergonomics, work related musculoskeletal disorders

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Authors: Viktorija Sabaliauskaitė, Arūnas Balčiūnas, Renata Rubavičiūtė

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Research on microplastic pollution in aquatic environments is being conducted worldwide. This presented research focused on the South-Eastern Baltic Sea, where, due to the natural conditions, algae accumulation on beaches is common. The present conditions enabled to apply and integrate of various microplastic extraction techniques: filtration, density separation, and sample aeration in order to investigate the microplastic concentrations within different beach compartments (nearshore water reference zone, nearshore algal scum zone, beach surface sand reference zone, beach wrack zone). This study demonstrates results from a total of 496 collected samples. The comparison of microplastic mean concentrations in water-based (0,016 item/cm³) and land-based (0,29 item/cm³) samples gave a clear insight into the microplastic accumulation hot spots, which pose pollution hazards to marine ecosystems and humans.

Keywords: beach wrack, marine litter, microplastics, pollution

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