Search results for: cost estimate

Authors: D. Kumar, S. Kumar, A. G. Memon, R. A. Memon, K. Harijan

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A considerable amount of energy is usually lost due to compression of insulation in Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) duct. In this paper, the economic impact of compression of insulation is estimated. Relevant mathematical models were used to estimate the optimal thickness at the points of compression. Furthermore, the payback period is calculated for the optimal thickness at the critical parts of supply air duct (SAD) and return air duct (RAD) considering natural gas (NG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as fuels for chillier operation. The mathematical model is developed using preliminary data obtained for an HVAC system of a pharmaceutical company. The higher heat gain and cooling loss, due to compression of thermal insulation, is estimated using relevant heat transfer equations. The results reveal that maximum energy savings (ES) in SAD is 34.5 and 40%, while in RAD is 22.9% and 29% for NG and LPG, respectively. Moreover, the minimum payback period (PP) for SAD is 2 and 1.6years, while in RAD is 4.3 and 2.7years for NG and LPG, respectively. The optimum insulation thickness (OIT) corresponding to maximum ES and minimum PP is estimated to be 35 and 42mm for SAD, while 30 and 38mm for RAD in case of NG and LPG, respectively.

Keywords: optimum insulation thickness, life cycle cost analysis, payback period, HVAC system

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Authors: Devatha Kalyan Kumar, R. Poovarasan

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In this paper, we have taken certain important factors and health parameters of diabetes patients especially among children by birth (pediatric congenital) where using the above three metrics methods we are going to assess the importance of each attributes in the dataset and thereby determining the most highly responsible and co-related attribute causing diabetics among young patients. We use cost optimization, control chart and Spearmen methodologies for the real-time application of finding the data efficiency in this diabetes dataset. The Spearmen methodology is the correlation methodologies used in software development process to identify the complexity between the various modules of the software. Identifying the complexity is important because if the complexity is higher, then there is a higher chance of occurrence of the risk in the software. With the use of control; chart mean, variance and standard deviation of data are calculated. With the use of Cost optimization model, we find to optimize the variables. Hence we choose the Spearmen, control chart and cost optimization methods to assess the data efficiency in diabetes datasets.

Keywords: correlation, congenital diabetics, linear relationship, monotonic function, ranking samples, pediatric

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Authors: Hsu-Yung Cheng, Kuo-Chang Hsu, Chi-Chang Chan, Mei-Hui Tseng, Chih-Chang Yu, Ya-Sheng Liu

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Photovoltaics modules are usually not installed horizontally to avoid water or dust accumulation. However, the measured irradiance data on tilted surfaces are rarely available since installing pyranometers with various tilt angles induces high costs. Therefore, estimating solar irradiance on tilted surfaces is an important research topic. In this work, artificial neural networks (ANN) are utilized to construct the transfer model to estimate solar irradiance on tilted surfaces. Instead of predicting tilted irradiance directly, the proposed method estimates the differences between the horizontal irradiance and the irradiance on a tilted surface. The outputs of the ANNs in the proposed design are differential values. The experimental results have shown that the proposed ANNs with differential outputs can substantially improve the estimation accuracy compared to ANNs that estimate the titled irradiance directly.

Keywords: photovoltaics, artificial neural networks, tilted irradiance, solar energy

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Authors: Fayza M. Obied-Allah

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Customer’ needs, quality, and value creation while reducing costs through supply chain management provides challenges and opportunities for companies and researchers. In the light of these challenges, modern ideas must contribute to counter these challenges and exploit opportunities. Perhaps this paper will be one of these contributions. This paper discusses the impact of the quality cost on revenue sharing as a most important incentive to configure business networks. No doubt that the costs directly affect the size of income generated by a business network, so this paper investigates the impact of quality costs on business networks revenue, and their impact on the decision to participate the revenue among the companies in the supply chain. This paper develops the quality cost approach to align with the modern era, the developed model includes five categories besides the well-known four categories (namely prevention costs, appraisal costs, internal failure costs, and external failure costs), a new category has been developed in this research as a new vision of the relationship between quality costs and innovations of industry. This new category is Recycle Cost. This paper is organized into six sections, Section I shows quality costs overview in the supply chain. Section II discusses revenue sharing between the parties in supply chain. Section III investigates the impact of quality costs in revenue sharing decision between partners in supply chain. The fourth section includes survey study and presents statistical results. Section V discusses the results and shows future opportunities for research. Finally, Section VI summarizes the theoretical and practical results of this paper.

Keywords: quality cost, recycle cost, revenue sharing, supply chain management

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Authors: Naime Boudemagh, Zoheir Hammoudi

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The parameters estimation of the K-distribution is an essential part in radar detection. In fact, presence of interfering targets in reference cells causes a decrease in detection performances. In such situation, the estimate of the shape and the scale parameters are far from the actual values. In the order to avoid interfering targets, we propose an Automatic Censoring (AC) algorithm of radar interfering targets in K-distribution. The censoring technique used in this work offers a good discrimination between homogeneous and non-homogeneous environments. The homogeneous population is then used to estimate the unknown parameters by the classical Method of Moment (MOM). The AC algorithm does not need any prior information about the clutter parameters nor does it require both the number and the position of interfering targets. The accuracy of the estimation parameters obtained by this algorithm are validated and compared to various actual values of the shape parameter, using Monte Carlo simulations, this latter show that the probability of censing in multiple target situations are in good agreement.

Keywords: parameters estimation, method of moments, automatic censoring, K distribution

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Authors: Rashmi Shahu

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Flexibility is becoming a more widely accepted aspect of project management. Although contingency theory in project management states that the unknowns are controllable, complexity theory believes that the best way to handle the unknowns would be to have a flexible approach rather than rigidity. Designing a flexible system is a method of managing uncertainty. The present research work aims to evaluate flexibility in the initial design phase of projects taking examples of construction projects. Flexibility in the initial design phase is modeled in order to know the advantage in future. The comparison between the extra cost of flexibility in the initial design phase and the discount that can be achieved in future due to this premium will help the developers in making strategic decisions. This research uses a methodology for valuing flexibility by developing a mathematical formula for predicting future saving of cost. Two case studies were considered in this research to validate the mathematical formula. This research explains three case studies of an educational institution 28 years old for explaining the concept and giving benefits of flexible design for modification/renovation work of building.

Keywords: flexibility, future saving, flexibility cost, construction projects

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Authors: U. P. Rathnakar, Medha Urval, K. Ashok Shenoy

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Introduction: There are many tools available for the measurement of health literacy. REALM (Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine) is a very commonly used tool in advanced countries. It comes in two forms-one with 66 words and shorter version (REALM-SF) with seven words. We decided to test the applicability of shorter version of the REALM test among our patients. Methodology: REALM (SF) was tested among 200 patients in a tertiary hospital. Discussion and conclusion: From the analysis of results, when the results of pronunciation indicate adequate levels of HL skills, analysis of comprehension shows that mere reading skills is likely to be misleading. So it is proposed that in Indian population who have adequate reading skills without adequate comprehension the REALM-SF test tool in its present form may not be an ideal testing tool for assessing HL.

Keywords: health literacy, REALM, short form, India

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Authors: Medya Fathi

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When public transportation projects were delivered through design-bid-build and later design-build, governments found a serious issue: inadequate funding. With population growth, governments began to develop new arrangements in which the private sectors were involved to cut the financial burden. This arrangement, known as Public-Private Partnership (PPP), has its own risks; however, performance outputs can motivate or discourage its use. On top of such output's list are time and budget, which can be affected by the type of project delivery methods. Project completion within or ahead of schedule as well as within or under budget is among any owner’s objectives. With a higher application of PPP in the highway industry in the US and insufficient PPP research, the current study addresses the schedule and cost performance of PPP highway projects and determines which one outperforms the other. To meet this objective, after collecting performance data of all PPP projects, schedule growth and cost growth are calculated, and finally, statistical analysis is conducted to evaluate the PPP performance. The results and conclusions will be provided. This study can assist practitioners in applying PPP for transportation projects by showing its ability to save time and/or cost.

Keywords: cost, delivery method, highway, public-private partnership, schedule, transportation

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Authors: Ali A. Hashim Habib, Ahmed A. Abdel-Rehim

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Assuredly, massive amounts of wastes that are not utilized and dumped in uncontrolled dumpsites will be one of the major sources of diseases, fires, and emissions. With easy steps and minimum effort, energy can be produced from these gases. The present work introduces an experimental and theoretical analysis to estimate the amount of landfill gas and the corresponding energy which can be produced based on actual Egyptian municipal wastes composition. Two models were utilized and compared, EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) model and CDM (Clean Development Mechanisms) model to estimate methane generation rates and total CH4 emissions based on a particular landfill. The results showed that for every ton of municipal waste, 140 m3 of landfill gas can be produced. About 800 kW of electricity for a minimum of 24 years can be generated form one million ton of municipal waste. A total amount of 549,025 ton of carbon emission can be avoided during these 24 years.

Keywords: energy from landfill gases, landfill biogas, methane emission, municipal solid waste, renewable energy sources

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Authors: G. Ramya

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Value engineering is a systematic approach, widely used to optimize the design or process or product in the designing stage. It used to achieve the client's obligation by increasing the functionality and attain the targeted cost in the cost planning. Value engineering effectiveness and benefits decrease along with the progress of the project since the change in the scope of the work and design will account for more cost all along the lifecycle of the project. Integrating the value engineering with other project management activities will promote cost minimization, client satisfaction, and ensure early completion of the project in time. Previous research studies suggested that value engineering can integrate with other project delivery activities, but research studies unable to frame a model that collaborates the project management activities with the job plan of value engineering approach. I analyzed various project management activities and their synergy between each other. The project management activities and processes like a)risk analysis b)lifecycle cost analysis c)lean construction d)facility management e)Building information modelling f)Contract administration, collaborated, and project delivery model planned along with the RIBA plan of work. The key outcome of the research is a value-driven project delivery model, which will succeed in dealing with the economic impact, constraints and conflicts arise due to the COVID-19 outbreak in the Indian construction sector. Benefits associated with the structured framework is construction project delivery that ensures early contractor involvement, mutual risk sharing, and reviving the project with a cost overrun and delay back on track ,are discussed. Keywords: Value-driven project delivery model, Integration, RIBA plan of work Themes: Design Economics

Keywords: value-driven project delivery model, Integration, RIBA

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Authors: Tovondahiniriko Fanjirindratovo, Olga Ramiarinjanahary, Paulisimone Rasoavonjy

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The sunshine duration, which is the sum of all the moments when the solar beam radiation is up to a minimal value, is an important parameter for climatology, tourism, agriculture and solar energy. Its measure is usually given by a pyrheliometer installed on a two-axis solar tracker. Due to the high cost of this device and the availability of global radiation on a horizontal surface, on the other hand, several studies have been done to make a correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration. Most of these studies are fitted for the northern hemisphere using a pyrheliometric database. The aim of the present work is to list and assess all the existing methods and apply them to Reunion Island, a tropical region in the southern hemisphere. Using a database of ten years, global, diffuse and beam radiation for a horizontal surface are employed in order to evaluate the uncertainty of existing algorithms for a tropical region. The methodology is based on indirect comparison because the solar beam radiation is not measured but calculated by the beam radiation on a horizontal surface and the sun elevation angle.

Keywords: Carpentras method, data fitting, global radiation, sunshine duration, Slob and Monna algorithm, step algorithm

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Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

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In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection

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Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) deals with both substitution synergies (exchange of waste materials, fatal energy and utilities as resources for production) and infrastructure/service sharing synergies. The latter is based on the intensification of use of an asset and thus requires to balance capital costs increments with snowball effects (network externalities) for its implementation. Initial investors must specify ex-ante arrangements (cost sharing and pricing schedule) to commit toward investments in capacities and transactions. Our model investigate the decision of 2 actors trying to choose cooperatively a level of infrastructure capacity oversizing to set a plug-and-play offer to a potential entrant whose capacity requirement is randomly distributed while satisficing their own requirements. Capacity cost exhibits sub-additive property so that there is room for profitable overcapacity setting in the first period. The entrant’s willingness-to-pay for the access to the infrastructure is dependent upon its standalone cost and the capacity gap that it must complete in case the available capacity is insufficient ex-post (the complement cost). Since initial capacity choices are driven by ex-ante (expected) yield extractible from the entrant we derive the expected complement cost function which helps us defining the investors’ objective function. We first show that this curve is decreasing and convex in the capacity increments and that it is shaped by the distribution function of the potential entrant’s requirements. We then derive the general form of solutions and solve the model for uniform and triangular distributions. Depending on requirements volumes and cost assumptions different equilibria occurs. We finally analyze the effect of a per-unit subsidy a public actor would apply to foster such sharing synergies.

Keywords: capacity, cooperation, industrial symbiosis, pricing

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Authors: Sony Baral, Bijendra Basnyat, Kalyan Gauli

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Forests are depleted throughout the world in the 1990s, and since then, various efforts have been undertaken for the restoration of the forest. A government of Nepal promoted various community based forest management in which leasehold forestry was the one introduce in 1990s, aiming to restore degraded forests land. However, few attempts have been made to systematically evaluate its cost effectiveness. Hence the study assesses the cost effectiveness of leasehold forestry intervention in the mid-hill district of Nepal following the cost and benefit analysis approach. The study followed quasi-experimental design and collected costs and benefits information from 320 leasehold forestry groups (with intervention) and 154 comparison groups (without intervention) through household survey, forest inventory and then validated with the stakeholders’ consultative workshop. The study found that both the benefits and costs from intervention outweighed without situation. The members of leasehold forestry groups were generating multiple benefits from the forests, such as firewood, grasses, fodder, and fruits, whereas those from comparison groups were mostly getting a single benefit. Likewise, extent of soil carbon is high in leasehold forests. Average expense per unit area is high in intervention sites due to high government investment for capacity building. Nevertheless, positive net present value and internal rate of return was observed for both situations. However, net present value from intervention, i.e., leasehold forestry, is almost double compared to comparison sites, revealing that community are getting higher benefits from restoration. The study concludes that leasehold forestry is a highly cost-effective intervention that contributes towards forest restoration that brings multiple benefits to rural poor.

Keywords: cost effectiveness, economic efficiency, intervention, restoration, leasehold forestry, nepal

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Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

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Considering the energetic crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes more and more necessary to change the energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energetic communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next ten years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series

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Authors: John Rothrock

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Background: The role of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in the diagnosis and management of patients with acute ischemic stroke remains controversial. While many stroke subspecialist reserve TTE for selected patients, others consider the procedure obligatory for most or all acute stroke patients. This study was undertaken to assess the cost vs. benefit of 'routine' TTE. Methods: We examined a consecutive series of patients who were admitted to a single institution in 2019 for acute ischemic stroke and underwent TTE. We sought to determine the frequency with which the results of TTE led to a new diagnosis of cardioembolism, redirected therapeutic cerebrovascular management, and at least potentially influenced the short or long-term clinical outcome. We recorded the direct cost associated with TTE. Results: There were 1076 patients in the study group, all of whom underwent TTE. TTE identified an unsuspected source of possible/probable cardioembolism in 62 patients (6%), confirmed an initially suspected source (primarily endocarditis) in an additional 13 (1%) and produced findings that stimulated subsequent testing diagnostic of possible/probable cardioembolism in 7 patients ( < 1%). TTE results potentially influenced the clinical outcome in a total of 48 patients (4%). With a total direct cost of $1.51 million, the mean cost per case wherein TTE results potentially influenced the clinical outcome in a positive manner was $31,375. Diagnostically and therapeutically, TTE was most beneficial in 67 patients under the age of 55 who presented with 'cryptogenic' stroke, identifying patent foramen ovale in 21 (31%); closure was performed in 19. Conclusions: The utility of TTE in the setting of acute ischemic stroke is modest, with its yield greatest in younger patients with cryptogenic stroke. Given the greater sensitivity of transesophageal echocardiography in detecting PFO and evaluating the aortic arch, TTE’s role in stroke diagnosis would appear to be limited.

Keywords: cardioembolic, cost-benefit, stroke, TTE

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Authors: Srikanth Nagarajan, P. Parthasarathy, Frits Lagers

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Lower crude oil prices increased the pressure on oil and gas projects. Being competitive becomes very important and critical for the success in any industry. Increase in size of the project multiplies the magnitude of the issue. Timely completion of projects within the budget and schedule is very important for any project to succeed. A simple idea makes a larger impact on the total cost of the plant. In this robust world, the phases of engineering right from licensing technology, feed, different phases of detail engineering, procurement and construction has been so much compressed that they overlap with each other. Hence constructability techniques have become very important. Here in this paper, the focus will be on how these techniques can be implemented and reduce cost with the help of a case study. Constructability is a process driven by the need to impact project’s construction phase resulting in improved project delivery, costs and schedule. In construction phase of one of our fast-track mega project, it was noticed that there was an opportunity to reduce significant amount of cost and schedule by implementing Constructability study processes. In this case study, the actual methodology adopted during engineering and construction and the way for doing it better by implementing Constructability techniques with collaborative engineering efforts will be explained.

Keywords: being competitive, collaborative engineering, constructability, cost reduction

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Authors: Shahab Shafayyan, Tara Naderi

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Biogas is the product of decomposition of organic materials. A variety of sources, including animal wastes, municipal solid wastes, sewage and agricultural wastes may be used to produce biogas in an anaerobic process. The main forming material of biogas is methane gas, which can be used directly in a variety of ways, such as heating and as fuel, which is very common in a number of countries, such as China and India. In this article, the cost of biogas production from animal fertilizers, and its refined form, bio methane gas has been studied and it is shown that it can be an alternative for natural gas in terms of costs, in the near future. The cost of biogas purification to biomethane is more than three times the cost of biogas production for an average unit. Biomethane production costs, calculated for a small unit, is about $9/MMBTU and for an average unit is about $5.9/MMBTU.

Keywords: biogas, biomethane, anaerobic digestion, economic evaluation

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluations of rail-pads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction, mechanical engineering design

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Authors: Asad Naeem, Mohamed Nour Eldin, Jinkoo Kim

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In this study, the seismic performance and life cycle cost (LCC) are evaluated of the structure retrofitted with the damped cable system (DCS). The DCS is a seismic retrofit system composed of a high-strength steel cable and pressurized viscous dampers. The analysis model of the system is first derived using various link elements in SAP2000, and fragility curves of the structure retrofitted with the DCS and viscous dampers are obtained using incremental dynamic analyses. The analysis results show that the residual displacements of the structure equipped with the DCS are smaller than those of the structure with retrofitted with only conventional viscous dampers, due to the enhanced stiffness/strength and self-centering capability of the damped cable system. The fragility analysis shows that the structure retrofitted with the DCS has the least probability of reaching the specific limit states compared to the bare structure and the structure with viscous damper. It is also observed that the initial cost of the DCS method required for the seismic retrofit is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers and that the LCC of the structure equipped with the DCS is smaller than that of the structure with viscous dampers.

Keywords: damped cable system, fragility curve, life cycle cost, seismic retrofit, self-centering

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Rabia Zulfiqar

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This paper attempts to trace the determining factor- as far as individual preferences and expectations are concerned- of what causes the direction of international migration to drift in certain ways owing to factors such as Religiosity and Cultural Assimilation. The narrative on migration has graduated from the age long ‘push/pull’ debate to that of complex factors that may vary across each individual. We explore the longstanding factor of religiosity widely acknowledged in mentioned literature as a key variable in the assessment of migration, wherein the impact of religiosity in the form of a drift into the intent of migration has been analyzed. A more conventional factor cultural assimilation is used in a contemporary way to estimate how it plays a role in affecting the drift in direction. In particular what our research aims at achieving is to isolate the effect our key variables: Cultural Assimilation and Religiosity have on direction of migration, and to explore how they interplay as a composite unit- and how we may be able to justify the change in behavior displayed by these key variables. In order to establish a true sense of what drives individual choices we employ the method of survey research and use a questionnaire to conduct primary research. The questionnaire was divided into six sections covering subjects including household characteristics, perceptions and inclinations of the respondents relevant to our study. Religiosity was quantified using a proxy of Migration Network that utilized secondary data to estimate religious hubs in recipient countries. To estimate the relationship between Intent of Migration and its variants three competing econometric models namely: the Ordered Probit Model, the Ordered Logit Model and the Tobit Model were employed. For every model that included our key variables, a highly significant relationship with the intent of migration was estimated.

Keywords: international migration, drift in direction, cultural assimilation, religiosity, ordered probit model

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Authors: M. A. Amer, J. A. Chávez, M. J. García-Hernández, J. Salazar, A. Turó

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In this paper, the design of a QCM sensor for liquid media measurements in vertical position is described. A rugged and low-cost proof holder has been designed, the cost of which is significantly lower than those of traditional commercial holders. The crystal is not replaceable but it can be easily cleaned. Its small volume permits to be used by dipping it in the liquid with the desired location and orientation. The developed design has been experimentally validated by measuring changes in the resonance frequency and resistance of the QCM sensor immersed vertically in different calibrated aqueous glycerol solutions. The obtained results show a great agreement with the Kanazawa theoretical expression. Consequently, the designed QCM sensor would be appropriate for sensing applications in liquids, and might take part of a future on-line multichannel low-cost QCM-based measurement system.

Keywords: holder design, liquid-media measurements, multi-channel measurements, QCM

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Authors: Shunichi Ohmori, Sirawadee Arunyanart, Kazuho Yoshimoto

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We consider a periodic review inventory control problem of minimizing production cost, inventory cost, and lost-sales under demand uncertainty, in which product demands are not specified exactly and it is only known to belong to a given uncertainty set, yet the constraints must hold for possible values of the data from the uncertainty set. We propose a robust optimization formulation for obtaining lowest cost possible and guaranteeing the feasibility with respect to range of order quantity and inventory level under demand uncertainty. Our formulation is based on the adaptive robust counterpart, which suppose order quantity is affine function of past demands. We derive certainty equivalent problem via second-order cone programming, which gives 'not too pessimistic' worst-case.

Keywords: robust optimization, inventory control, supply chain managment, second-order programming

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Authors: Jong Woo Kim, Go Bong Choi, Sang Hwan Son, Dae Shik Kim, Jung Chul Suh, Jong Min Lee

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The Markov Decision Process (MDP) based methodology is implemented in order to establish the optimal schedule which minimizes the cost. Formulation of MDP problem is presented using the information about the current state of pipe, improvement cost, failure cost and pipe deterioration model. The objective function and detailed algorithm of dynamic programming (DP) are modified due to the difficulty of implementing the conventional DP approaches. The optimal schedule derived from suggested model is compared to several policies via Monte Carlo simulation. Validity of the solution and improvement in computational time are proved.

Keywords: Markov decision processes, dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulation, periodic replacement, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Sultan Alharby, Nick Harris, Alex Weddell, Jeff Reeve

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The concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) has received much attention over the last five years. It is predicted that the IoT will influence every aspect of our lifestyles in the near future. Wireless Sensor Networks are one of the key enablers of the operation of IoTs, allowing data to be collected from the surrounding environment. However, due to limited resources, nature of deployment and unattended operation, a WSN is vulnerable to various types of attack. Security is paramount for reliable and safe communication between IoT embedded devices, but it does, however, come at a cost to resources. Nodes are usually equipped with small batteries, which makes energy conservation crucial to IoT devices. Nevertheless, security cost in terms of energy consumption has not been studied sufficiently. Previous research has used a security specification of 802.15.4 for IoT applications, but the energy cost of each security level and the impact on quality of services (QoS) parameters remain unknown. This research focuses on the cost of security at the IoT media access control (MAC) layer. It begins by studying the energy consumption of IEEE 802.15.4 security levels, which is followed by an evaluation for the impact of security on data latency and throughput, and then presents the impact of transmission power on security overhead, and finally shows the effects of security on memory footprint. The results show that security overhead in terms of energy consumption with a payload of 24 bytes fluctuates between 31.5% at minimum level over non-secure packets and 60.4% at the top security level of 802.15.4 security specification. Also, it shows that security cost has less impact at longer packet lengths, and more with smaller packet size. In addition, the results depicts a significant impact on data latency and throughput. Overall, maximum authentication length decreases throughput by almost 53%, and encryption and authentication together by almost 62%.

Keywords: energy consumption, IEEE 802.15.4, IoT security, security cost evaluation

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Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

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Authors: Maria Klitgaard Christensen, Carmen Lim, Sukanta Saha, Danielle Cannon, Finley Prentis, Oleguer Plana-Ripoll, Natalie Momen, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, John J. McGrath

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Introduction: About a third of the world’s population will develop a mental disorder over their lifetime. Having a mental disorder is a huge burden in health loss and cost for the individual, but also for society because of treatment cost, production loss and caregivers’ cost. The objective of this study is to synthesize the international published literature on the economic burden of mental disorders. Methods: Systematic literature searches were conducted in the databases PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, EconLit, NHS York Database and PsychInfo using key terms for cost and mental disorders. Searches were restricted to 1980 until May 2019. The inclusion criteria were: (1) cost-of-illness studies or cost-analyses, (2) diagnosis of at least one mental disorder, (3) samples based on the general population, and (4) outcome in monetary units. 13,640 publications were screened by their title/abstract and 439 articles were full-text screened by at least two independent reviewers. 112 articles were included from the systematic searches and 31 articles from snowball searching, giving a total of 143 included articles. Results: Information about diagnosis, diagnostic criteria, sample size, age, sex, data sources, study perspective, study period, costing approach, cost categories, discount rate and production loss method and cost unit was extracted. The vast majority of the included studies were from Western countries and only a few from Africa and South America. The disorder group most often investigated was mood disorders, followed by schizophrenia and neurotic disorders. The disorder group least examined was intellectual disabilities, followed by eating disorders. The preliminary results show a substantial variety in the used perspective, methodology, costs components and outcomes in the included studies. An online tool is under development enabling the reader to explore the published information on costs by type of mental disorder, subgroups, country, methodology, and study quality. Discussion: This is the first systematic review synthesizing the economic cost of mental disorders worldwide. The paper will provide an important and comprehensive overview over the economic burden of mental disorders, and the output from this review will inform policymaking.

Keywords: cost-of-illness, health economics, mental disorders, systematic review

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Authors: Dessy Arumsari, Ais Assana Athqiya, Mulyaminingrum

Abstract:

Healthcare in remote areas is one of the major concerns in Indonesia. Building hospitals in a nation of 18.000 islands with a larger-than-life bureaucracy and problems with corruption, a critical shortage of qualified medical professionals and well-heeled patients resigned to traveling abroad for health care is a hard feat to accomplish. To assuring that all populations have access to appropriate and cost-effective care, a new solution to tackle this problem is with the presence of RV Car Clinic. This car has a concept such as a walking hospital that provides health facilities inside it. All of the health professionals who work in RV Car Clinic will do the rotation for a year in order to the equitable distribution of health workers. We need to advocate the policy makers to help realize RV Car Clinic in remote areas. Health services can be disseminated by the present of RV Car Clinic. Summarily, the local communities can get cost effectively because RV Car Clinic will come to their place and serve the health services.

Keywords: health policy, health professional, remote areas, RV Car Clinic

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Cyril Hrncar, Jozef Bujko, Widya P. B. Putra

Abstract:

The growth curve of poultry is important to evaluate the farming management system. This study was aimed to estimate the growth curve of body weight in goose. The growth curve in this study was estimated with non-linear Gompertz model through CurveExpert 1.4. software. Three Slovak mixed-sex goose breeds of Landes (L), Pomeranian (P) and Steinbacher (S) were used in this study. Total of 28 geese (10 L, 8 P and 10 S) were used to estimate the growth curve. Research showed that the asymptotic weight (A) in those geese were reached of 5332.51 g (L), 6186.14 g (P) and 5048.27 g (S). Thus, the maturing rate (k) in each breed were similar (0.05 g/day). The weight of inflection was reached of 1960.48 g (L), 2274.32 g (P) and 1855.98 g (S). The time of inflection (ti) was reached of 25.6 days (L), 26.2 days (P) and 27.80 days (S). The maximum growth rate (MGR) was reached of 98.02 g/day (L), 113.72 g/day (P) and 92.80 g/day (S). Hence, the coefficient of determination (R2) in Gompertz model was 0.99 for each breed. It can be concluded that Pomeranian geese had highest of growth trait than the other breeds.

Keywords: body weight, growth curve, inflection, Slovak geese, Gompertz model

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Vitor M. Vilas Boas, Cleison D. Silva, Gustavo S. Mafra, Alexandre Trofino Neto

Abstract:

Motor imagery (MI) based brain-computer interfaces (BCI) uses event-related (de)synchronization (ERS/ ERD), typically recorded using electroencephalography (EEG), to translate brain electrical activity into control commands. To mitigate undesirable artifacts and noise measurements on EEG signals, methods based on band-pass filters defined by a specific frequency band (i.e., 8 – 30Hz), such as the Infinity Impulse Response (IIR) filters, are typically used. Spatial techniques, such as Common Spatial Patterns (CSP), are also used to estimate the variations of the filtered signal and extract features that define the imagined motion. The CSP effectiveness depends on the subject's discriminative frequency, and approaches based on the decomposition of the band of interest into sub-bands with smaller frequency ranges (SBCSP) have been suggested to EEG signals classification. However, despite providing good results, the SBCSP approach generally increases the computational cost of the filtering step in IM-based BCI systems. This paper proposes the use of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm in the IM-based BCI filtering stage that implements SBCSP. The goal is to apply the FFT algorithm to reduce the computational cost of the processing step of these systems and to make them more efficient without compromising classification accuracy. The proposal is based on the representation of EEG signals in a matrix of coefficients resulting from the frequency decomposition performed by the FFT, which is then submitted to the SBCSP process. The structure of the SBCSP contemplates dividing the band of interest, initially defined between 0 and 40Hz, into a set of 33 sub-bands spanning specific frequency bands which are processed in parallel each by a CSP filter and an LDA classifier. A Bayesian meta-classifier is then used to represent the LDA outputs of each sub-band as scores and organize them into a single vector, and then used as a training vector of an SVM global classifier. Initially, the public EEG data set IIa of the BCI Competition IV is used to validate the approach. The first contribution of the proposed method is that, in addition to being more compact, because it has a 68% smaller dimension than the original signal, the resulting FFT matrix maintains the signal information relevant to class discrimination. In addition, the results showed an average reduction of 31.6% in the computational cost in relation to the application of filtering methods based on IIR filters, suggesting FFT efficiency when applied in the filtering step. Finally, the frequency decomposition approach improves the overall system classification rate significantly compared to the commonly used filtering, going from 73.7% using IIR to 84.2% using FFT. The accuracy improvement above 10% and the computational cost reduction denote the potential of FFT in EEG signal filtering applied to the context of IM-based BCI implementing SBCSP. Tests with other data sets are currently being performed to reinforce such conclusions.

Keywords: brain-computer interfaces, fast Fourier transform algorithm, motor imagery, sub-band common spatial patterns

Procedia PDF Downloads 103