Search results for: K-SAD-PL 2009
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 565

Search results for: K-SAD-PL 2009

205 Circumstantial Loneliness and Existential Isolation in the Works of Flutura Açka

Authors: Elvira Lumi, Hans Jazxhi

Abstract:

In the works of the writer Flutura Açka, the play with these questions is acute, and in almost each of them, the act of loneliness and isolation builds in a completely involuntary way unique and frequent conceptual spaces. Because the object of study is too broad to grasp all the works, this study lays out a rapid paradox of our access to three of the novels in the line of numerous authorial works. The novel "Woman Loneliness" (2001), also marked as the first work in prose by the author, declares in the title the paradigm of what she has decided to confess. The gender segregation proclaimed in the title will be revealed step by step in the work as conventional human segregation without gender. In this novel, the analysis of the state of "loneliness" will require a contemplation beyond man, when the role of the environment and the distance from the center of the narrative base will be extremely visible in the work. The novel "Cross of Oblivion" (2004) has another form of perception of loneliness, which, unlike the one built by the characters themselves in the novel "Woman Loneliness," is imposed and obligatory to live by the circumstances. Its characters are trapped in loneliness, as loneliness that comes from impossibility, from the past, from dependence on fate, from fear of change, and from the obligation to accept it. At the heart of the novel, the plot of the novel game is dictated by the Kanun and its rules and the loneliness of the basis of life in unbroken waves towards the periphery of the event, a periphery that has very large geography and is played in today's Europe. The novel "Where are you?" (2009) has a completely different form of constructing the concept of loneliness and isolation that comes under conditions of repression and political pressure. The loneliness in this novel takes the form of the protective element from the circumstances that actually require a social inclusion; it is personal loneliness that ensures relative mental health of the characters, up to a new trap created by the circumstances, thus building life fragmentary “healthy” in the order of a mentally ill and socially ill society.

Keywords: loneliness, existential, isolation, woman, prose

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204 Experimental Simulations of Aerosol Effect to Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Philippine Coast: Virtual Seeding Using WRF Model

Authors: Bhenjamin Jordan L. Ona

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Weather modification is an act of altering weather systems that catches interest on scientific studies. Cloud seeding is a common form of weather alteration. On the same principle, tropical cyclone mitigation experiment follows the methods of cloud seeding with intensity to account for. This study will present the effects of aerosol to tropical cyclone cloud microphysics and intensity. The framework of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model incorporated with Thompson aerosol-aware scheme is the prime host to support the aerosol-cloud microphysics calculations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) ingested into the tropical cyclones before making landfall over the Philippine coast. The coupled microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols will be analyzed using numerical data conditions of Tropical Storm Ketsana (2009), Tropical Storm Washi (2011), and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) associated with varying CCN number concentrations per simulation per typhoon: clean maritime, polluted, and very polluted having 300 cm-3, 1000 cm-3, and 2000 cm-3 aerosol number initial concentrations, respectively. Aerosol species like sulphates, sea salts, black carbon, and organic carbon will be used as cloud nuclei and mineral dust as ice nuclei (IN). To make the study as realistic as possible, investigation during the biomass burning due to forest fire in Indonesia starting October 2015 as Typhoons Mujigae/Kabayan and Koppu/Lando had been seeded with aerosol emissions mainly comprises with black carbon and organic carbon, will be considered. Emission data that will be used is from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The physical mechanism/s of intensification or deintensification of tropical cyclones will be determined after the seeding experiment analyses.

Keywords: aerosol, CCN, IN, tropical cylone

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203 Research on Health Emergency Management Based on the Bibliometrics

Authors: Meng-Na Dai, Bao-Fang Wen, Gao-Pei Zhu, Chen-Xi Zhang, Jing Sun, Chang-Hai Tang, Zhi-Qiang Feng, Wen-Qiang Yin

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of literature in the health emergency management in China with recent 10 years, this paper discusses the Chinese current research hotspots, development trends and shortcomings in this field, and provides references for scholars to conduct follow-up research. CNKI(China National Knowledge Infrastructure), Weipu, and Wanfang were the databases of this literature. The key words during the database search were health, emergency, and management with the time from 2009 to 2018. The duplicate, non-academic, and unrelated documents were excluded. 901 articles were included in the literature review database. The main indicators of abstraction were, the number of articles published every year, authors, institutions, periodicals, etc. There are some research findings through the analysis of the literature. Overall, the number of literature in the health emergency management in China has shown a fluctuating downward trend in recent 10 years. Specifically, there is a lack of close cooperation between authors, which has not constituted the core team among them yet. Meanwhile, in this field, the number of high-level periodicals and quality literature is scarce. In addition, there are a lot of research hotspots, such as emergency management system, mechanism research, capacity evaluation index system research, plans and capacity-building research, etc. In the future, we should increase the scientific research funding of the health emergency management, encourage collaborative innovation among authors in multi-disciplinary fields, and create high-quality and high-impact journals in this field. The states should encourage scholars in this field to carry out more academic cooperation and communication with the whole world and improve the research in breadth and depth. Generally speaking, the research in health emergency management in China is still insufficient and needs to be improved.

Keywords: health emergency management, research situation, bibliometrics, literature

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202 Numerical Simulation of Air Pollutant Using Coupled AERMOD-WRF Modeling System over Visakhapatnam: A Case Study

Authors: Amit Kumar

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Accurate identification of deteriorated air quality regions is very helpful in devising better environmental practices and mitigation efforts. In the present study, an attempt has been made to identify the air pollutant dispersion patterns especially NOX due to vehicular and industrial sources over a rapidly developing urban city, Visakhapatnam (17°42’ N, 83°20’ E), India, during April 2009. Using the emission factors of different vehicles as well as the industry, a high resolution 1 km x 1 km gridded emission inventory has been developed for Visakhapatnam city. A dispersion model AERMOD with explicit representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics and offline coupled through a developed coupler mechanism with a high resolution mesoscale model WRF-ARW resolution for simulating the dispersion patterns of NOX is used in the work. The meteorological as well as PBL parameters obtained by employing two PBL schemes viz., non-local Yonsei University (YSU) and local Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) of WRF-ARW model, which are reasonably representing the boundary layer parameters are considered for integrating AERMOD. Significantly different dispersion patterns of NOX have been noticed between summer and winter months. The simulated NOX concentration is validated with available six monitoring stations of Central Pollution Control Board, India. Statistical analysis of model evaluated concentrations with the observations reveals that WRF-ARW of YSU scheme with AERMOD has shown better performance. The deteriorated air quality locations are identified over Visakhapatnam based on the validated model simulations of NOX concentrations. The present study advocates the utility of tNumerical Simulation of Air Pollutant Using Coupled AERMOD-WRF Modeling System over Visakhapatnam: A Case Studyhe developed gridded emission inventory of NOX with coupled WRF-AERMOD modeling system for air quality assessment over the study region.

Keywords: WRF-ARW, AERMOD, planetary boundary layer, air quality

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201 Is More Inclusive More Effective? The 'New Style' Public Distribution System in India

Authors: Avinash Kishore, Suman Chakrabarti

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In September 2013, the parliament of India enacted the National Food Security Act (NFSA) which entitles two-thirds of India’s population to five kilograms of rice, wheat or coarse cereals per person per month at one to three rupees per kilogram. Five states in India—Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal—had already implemented somewhat similar changes in the TPDS a few years earlier using their own budgetary resources. They made rice—coincidentally, all five states are predominantly rice-eating—available in fair price shops to a majority of their population at very low prices (less than Rs.3/kg). This paper tries to account for the changes in household consumption patterns associated with the change in TPDS policy in these states using data from household consumption surveys by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO). NSS data show improvement in the coverage of TPDS and average off-take of grains from fair price shops between 2004-05 and 2009-10 across all states of India. However, the increase in coverage and off-take was significantly higher in four out of these five states than in the rest of India. An average household in these states purchased three kilos more rice per month from fair price shops than its counterpart in non-treated states as a result of more generous TPDS policies backed by administrative reforms. The increase in consumption of PDS rice was the highest in Chhattisgarh, the poster state of PDS reforms. Households in Chhattisgarh used money saved on rice to spend more on pulses, edible oil, vegetables and sugar and other non-food items. We also find evidence that making TPDS more inclusive and more generous is not enough unless it is supported by administrative reforms to improve grain delivery and control diversion to open markets.

Keywords: public distribution system, social safety-net, national food security act, diet quality, Chhattisgarh

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200 Gender Identify and Agency of Traumatized Subjects in Incestuous Family

Authors: Jenyu Peng

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Incestuous abuse can be considered a form of domestic violence that exemplifies gender inequality. It challenges the common image of home as “haven of safety”. In Taiwan, even after years of feminist NGOs’ effort to encourage victims to speak up, the shared cultural representations of family, still praising piety towards the parents, seem to keep the incest trauma in secret. As clinical practitioners have observed, most devastating psychological sequels of incest trauma are often related to silencing. Thus one can expect that in families centered cultures, the difficulties for victims to disclose are greater, and the traumatic consequences more severe. This poses crucial therapeutic issues for clinicians working in those cultures. Since 2009, the author, a trained psychoanalyst and researcher, has been conducting “clinical fieldwork” on incest trauma in Taiwan. Employing ethnographical method, our theoretical references are both psychoanalytical and anthropological. The necessity of interdisciplinary efforts in incest trauma research will be addressed and discussed. The analyses of the present paper will focus on five incestuous families: four Han families, and one aboriginal. Although Taiwanese aboriginal peoples have been pretty much sinicized since decades, it is worth observing the convergent and divergent aspects in these two cultures. Moreover, findings of a previous research conducted in France during 2002-2004 will serve as background for the purpose of comparison. The results will be presented along with three questions: 1) How the perception of family influences the process of disclosure? 2) How the incestuous experience comes into play with victims’ gender identity and sexuality, pivotal for the subjectification? 3) How victims more successful in gendered subjectification modify their dynamics with their traumatizing family? This research finds that most victims tend to defend their own incestuous families, and that victims’ subjectivity and agency are actually entangled in the power structure of incestuous family.

Keywords: incestuous family, subjectification, gender identity, agency

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199 Unfolding Global Biodiversity Patterns of Marine Planktonic Diatom Communities across the World's Oceans

Authors: Shruti Malviya, Chris Bowler

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Analysis of microbial eukaryotic diversity is fundamental to understanding ecosystems’ structure, biology, and ecology. Diatoms (Stramenopiles, Bacillariophyceae) are one of the most diverse and ecologically prominent groups of phytoplankton. This study was performed to enhance the understanding of global biodiversity patterns and structure of planktonic diatom communities across the world's oceans. We used the metabarcoding data set generated from the biological samples and associated environmental data collected during the Tara Oceans (2009-2013) global circumnavigation covering all major oceanic provinces. A total of ~18 million diatom V9-18S rDNA tags from 126 sampling stations, constituting 631 size-fractionated plankton communities were generated. Using ~250,000 unique diatom metabarcodes, the global diatom distribution and diversity across size classes, genus and ecological niches was assessed. Notably, our analysis revealed: (i) a new estimate of the total number of planktonic diatom species, (ii) a considerable unknown diversity and exceptionally high diversity in the open ocean, and (iii) complex diversity patterns across oceanic provinces. Also, co-occurrence of several ribotypes in locations separated by great geographic distances (equatorial stations) demonstrated a widespread but not ubiquitous distribution. This work provides a comprehensive perspective on diatom distribution and diversity in the world’s oceans and elaborates interconnections between associated theories and underlying drivers. It shows how meta-barcoding approaches can provide a framework to investigate environmental diversity at a global scale, which is deemed as an essential step in answering various ecological research questions. Consequently, this work also provides a reference point to explore how microbial communities will respond to environmental conditions.

Keywords: diatoms, Tara Oceans, biodiversity, metabarcoding

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198 Uterine Cervical Cancer; Early Treatment Assessment with T2- And Diffusion-Weighted MRI

Authors: Susanne Fridsten, Kristina Hellman, Anders Sundin, Lennart Blomqvist

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Background: Patients diagnosed with locally advanced cervical carcinoma are treated with definitive concomitant chemo-radiotherapy. Treatment failure occurs in 30-50% of patients with very poor prognoses. The treatment is standardized with risk for both over-and undertreatment. Consequently, there is a great need for biomarkers able to predict therapy outcomes to allow for individualized treatment. Aim: To explore the role of T2- and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for early prediction of therapy outcome and the optimal time point for assessment. Methods: A pilot study including 15 patients with cervical carcinoma stage IIB-IIIB (FIGO 2009) undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy. All patients underwent MRI four times, at baseline, 3 weeks, 5 weeks, and 12 weeks after treatment started. Tumour size, size change (∆size), visibility on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and change of ADC (∆ADC) at the different time points were recorded. Results: 7/15 patients relapsed during the study period, referred to as "poor prognosis", PP, and the remaining eight patients are referred to "good prognosis", GP. The tumor size was larger at all time points for PP than for GP. The ∆size between any of the four-time points was the same for PP and GP patients. The sensitivity and specificity to predict prognostic group depending on a remaining tumor on DWI were highest at 5 weeks and 83% (5/6) and 63% (5/8), respectively. The combination of tumor size at baseline and remaining tumor on DWI at 5 weeks in ROC analysis reached an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. After 12 weeks, no remaining tumor was seen on DWI among patients with GP, as opposed to 2/7 PP patients. Adding ADC to the tumor size measurements did not improve the predictive value at any time point. Conclusion: A large tumor at baseline MRI combined with a remaining tumor on DWI at 5 weeks predicted a poor prognosis.

Keywords: chemoradiotherapy, diffusion-weighted imaging, magnetic resonance imaging, uterine cervical carcinoma

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197 Enabling Translanguaging in the EFL Classroom, Affordances of Learning and Reflections

Authors: Nada Alghali

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Translanguaging pedagogy suggests a new perspective in language education relating to multilingualism; multilingual learners have one linguistic repertoire and not two or more separate language systems (García and Wei, 2014). When learners translanguage, they are able to draw on all their language features in a flexible and integrated way (Otheguy, García, & Reid, 2015). In the Foreign Language Classroom, however, the tendency to use the target language only is still advocated as a pedagogy. This study attempts to enable learners in the English as a foreign language classroom to draw on their full linguistic repertoire through collaborative reading lessons. In observations prior to this study, in a classroom where English only policy prevails, learners still used their first language in group discussions yet were constrained at times by the teacher’s language policies. Through strategically enabling translanguaging in reading lessons (Celic and Seltzer, 2011), this study has revealed that learners showed creative ways of language use for learning and reflected positively on thisexperience. This case study enabled two groups in two different proficiency level classrooms who are learning English as a foreign language in their first year at University in Saudi Arabia. Learners in the two groups wereobserved over six weeks and wereasked to reflect their learning every week. The same learners were also interviewed at the end of translanguaging weeks after completing a modified model of the learning reflection (Ash and Clayton, 2009). This study positions translanguaging as collaborative and agentive within a sociocultural framework of learning, positioning translanguaging as a resource for learning as well as a process of learning. Translanguaging learning episodes are elicited from classroom observations, artefacts, interviews, reflections, and focus groups, where they are analysed qualitatively following the sociocultural discourse analysis (Fairclough &Wodak, 1997; Mercer, 2004). Initial outcomes suggest functions of translanguaging in collaborative reading tasks and recommendations for a collaborative translanguaging pedagogy approach in the EFL classroom.

Keywords: translanguaging, EFL, sociocultural theory, discourse analysis

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196 Disclosure Extension of Oil and Gas Reserve Quantum

Authors: Ali Alsawayeh, Ibrahim Eldanfour

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This paper examines the extent of disclosure of oil and gas reserve quantum in annual reports of international oil and gas exploration and production companies, particularly companies in untested international markets, such as Canada, the UK and the US, and seeks to determine the underlying factors that affect the level of disclosure on oil reserve quantum. The study is concerned with the usefulness of disclosure of oil and gas reserves quantum to investors and other users. Given the primacy of the annual report (10-k) as a source of supplemental reserves data about the company and as the channel through which companies disseminate information about their performance, the annual reports for one year (2009) were the central focus of the study. This comparative study seeks to establish whether differences exist between the sample companies, based on new disclosure requirements by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in respect of reserves classification and definition. The extent of disclosure of reserve is provided and compared among the selected companies. Statistical analysis is performed to determine whether any differences exist in the extent of disclosure of reserve under the determinant variables. This study shows that some factors would affect the extent of disclosure of reserve quantum in the above-mentioned countries, namely: company’s size, leverage and quality of auditor. Companies that provide reserves quantum in detail appear to display higher size. The findings also show that the level of leverage has affected companies’ reserves quantum disclosure. Indeed, companies that provide detailed reserves quantum disclosure tend to employ a ‘high-quality auditor’. In addition, the study found significant independent variable such as Profit Sharing Contracts (PSC). This factor could explain variations in the level of disclosure of oil reserve quantum between the contractor and host governments. The implementation of SEC oil and gas reporting requirements do not enhance companies’ valuation because the new rules are based only on past and present reserves information (proven reserves); hence, future valuation of oil and gas companies is missing for the market.

Keywords: comparison, company characteristics, disclosure, reserve quantum, regulation

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195 Neurological Complication of Bariatric Surgery: A Cross-sectional Study from Saudi Arabia

Authors: H. A. Algahtani, A. S. Khan, O. Alzahrani, N. Hussein, M. A. Khan, Loudhi Y. I. Soliman

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Objective: To report on the Saudi experience (developing country) of neurological complications from bariatric surgery. The literature on the subject is reviewed. Method: This is a cross sectional study done in King Abdul Aziz Medical City Jeddah, WR, where we reviewed all charts of the patients who underwent bariatric surgery between January 1st, 2009 to December 31st , 2014. Personal and clinical data including age, sex, BMI, comorbidities, type of procedure, duration of stay in hospital, complications and postoperative follow up were collected. In addition follow up visit and remote complication if present were collected. All patients with neurological complications were reviewed in details including their clinical examination, laboratory and imaging results, treatment and prognosis. This report is essentially descriptive with no statistical analysis performed. Results: Fifteen cases were collected in this study (3%). Axonal polyneuropathy was the most frequent neurological complica¬tion, but cases of Wernicke syndrome, vitamin B12 deficiency, Guillain-Barre syndrome and cupper deficiency were also identified. Fourteen patients (93.3%) had full recovery from the neurological signs and symptoms but unfortunately one patient died. Conclusion: Bariatric surgery, a procedure that is continuously increasing in popularity, is not free of potential neurological complications. A clear education, guidelines and follow-up program should be planned and practiced. Facts should be clearly presented to the individual undergoing this type of surgery. Although a clear cause-effect relation cannot be established for the present cases, the cumulative literature on the subject makes it important to warn the patient of the potential risks of this procedure.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, neurological complications, neuropathy, Wenicke syndrome

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194 Antimicrobial Resistance Patterns of Campylobacter from Pig and Cattle Carcasses in Poland

Authors: Renata Szewczyk, Beata Lachtara, Kinga Wieczorek, Jacek Osek

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Campylobacter is recognized as the main cause of bacterial gastrointestinal infections in Europe. A main source of the pathogen is poultry and poultry meat; however, other animals like pigs and cattle can also be reservoirs of the bacteria. Human Campylobacter infections are often self-limiting but in some cases, macrolide and fluoroquinolones have to be used. The aim of this study was to determine antimicrobial resistance patterns (AMR) of Campylobacter isolated from pig and cattle carcasses. Between July 2009 and December 2015, 735 swabs from pig (n = 457) and cattle (n = 278) carcasses were collected at Polish slaughterhouses. All samples were tested for the presence of Campylobacter by ISO 10272-1 and confirmed to species level using PCR. The antimicrobial susceptibility of Campylobacter isolates was determined by a microbroth dilution method with six antimicrobials: gentamicin (GEN), streptomycin (STR), erythromycin (ERY), nalidixic acid (NAL), ciprofloxacin (CIP) and tetracycline (TET). It was found that 167 of 735 samples (22.7%) were contaminated with Campylobacter. The vast majority of them were of pig origin (134; 80.2%), whereas for cattle carcasses Campylobacter was less prevalent (33; 19.8%). Among positive samples C. coli was predominant species (123; 73.7%) and it was isolated mainly from pig carcasses. The remaining isolates were identified as C. jejuni (44; 26.3%). Antimicrobial susceptibility indicated that 22 out of 167 Campylobacter (13.2%) were sensitive to all antimicrobials used. Fourteen of them were C. jejuni (63.6%; pig, n = 6; cattle, n = 8) and 8 was C. coli (36.4%; pig, n = 4; cattle, n = 4). Most of the Campylobacter isolates (145; 86.8%) were resistant to one or more antimicrobials (C. coli, n = 115; C. jejuni, n = 30). Comparing the AMR for Campylobacter species it was found that the most common pattern for C. jejuni was CIP-NAL-TET (9; 30.0%), whereas CIP-NAL-STR-TET was predominant among C. coli (47; 40.9%). Multiresistance, defined as resistance to three or more classes of antimicrobials, was found in 57 C. coli strains, mostly obtained from pig (52 isolates). On the other hand, only one C. jejuni strain, isolated from cattle, showed multiresistance with pattern CIP-NAL-STR-TET. Moreover, CIP-NAL-STR-TET was characteristic for most of multiresistant C. coli isolates (47; 82.5%). For the remaining C. coli the resistance patterns were CIP-ERY-NAL-TET (7 strains; 12.3%) and for one strain of each patterns: ERY-STR-TET, CIP-STR-TET, CIP-NAL-GEN-STR-TET. According to the present findings resistance to erythromycin was observed only in 11 C. coli (pig, n = 10; cattle, n = 1). In conclusion, the results of this study showed that pig carcasses may be a serious public health concern because of contamination with C. coli that might features multiresistance to antimicrobials.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, Campylobacter, carcasses, multi resistance

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193 Participatory Approach for Urban Sustainability through Ostrom’s Principles

Authors: Kuladeep Kumar Sadevi

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The shift towards raising global urban population has intense implications on the sustainability of the urban livelihoods. Rapid urbanization has made governments, companies and civil societies recognize that they are barely equipped to deal with growing urban demands, especially water, waste and energy management. Effective management of land, water, energy and waste at a community level should be addressed well to attain greener cities. In pursuit of Green livelihoods; various norms, codes, and green rating programmes have been followed by stakeholders at various levels. While the sustainability is being adapted at smaller scale developments, greening the urban environment at community/city level is still finding its path to reality. This is due to lack of the sense of ownership in the citizens for their immediate neighborhoods and city as a whole. This phenomenon can be well connected to the theory of 'tragedy of commons' with respect to the community engagement to manage the common pool resources. The common pool resource management has been well addressed by Elinor Ostrom, who shared the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2009 for her lifetime of scholarly work investigating how communities succeed or fail at managing common pool (finite) resources. This paper examines the applicability of Elinor Ostrom's 8 Principles for Managing a Commons, to meet urban sustainability. The key objective of this paper is to come up with a model for effective urban common pool resource management, which ultimately leads to sustainability as a whole. The paper brings out a methodology to understand various parameters involved in urban sustainability, examine the synergies of all such parameters, and application of Ostrom’s principles to correlate these parameters in order to attain effective urban resource management.

Keywords: common pool resources, green cities, green communities, participatory management, sustainable development, urban resource management, urban sustainability

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192 Examination of the Relationship between Managerial Competence and Job Satisfacti̇on and Career Satisfacti̇on in Sports Managers'

Authors: Omur F. Karakullukcu, Bilal Okudan, Yusuf Can

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The aim of this study is to analyze sports managers’ managerial competence levels and job satisfaction’s correlation with career satisfaction. In the study, it has also been analyzed if there is any significant difference in sports managers’ managerial competence, job and career satisfaction in terms of gender, age, duty status, year of service and level of education. 256 sports managers, who work at department of sports service’s central and field organization at least as a chief in the manager position, have been chosen with random sampling method and they have voluntarily participated in the study. In the study, the managerial competence scale which was developed by Cetinkaya (2009), job satisfaction scale developed by Weiss at al.(1967) and Career Satisfaction Scale developed by Vatansever (2008) have been used as a data collection tool. The questionnaire form used as a data collection tool in the study includes a personal information form consisting of 5 questions; questioning gender, age, duty status, years of service and level of education. In the study, pearson correlation analysis has been used for defining the correlation of managerial competence levels, job satisfaction, and career satisfaction levels of sports managers. T-test analysis for binary grouping and anova analysis for more than binary groups have been used in the level of self-efficacy, collective and managerial competence in terms of the participants’ duty status, year of service and level of education. According to the research results, it has been found that there is a positive correlation between sports managers’ managerial competence levels, job satisfaction, and career satisfaction levels. Also, the results show that there is a significant difference in managerial competence levels, job satisfaction and career satisfaction of sports managers in terms of duty status, year of service and level of education; however, the results reveal that there is no significant difference in terms of age groups and gender.

Keywords: sports manager, managerial competence, job satisfaction, career satisfaction

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191 Steady and Spatio-Temporal Monitoring of Water Quality Feeding Area Southwest of Great Casablanca (Morocco)

Authors: Hicham Maklache, Rajae Delhi, Fatiha Benzha, Mohamed Tahiri

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In Morocco, where semi-arid climate is dominant, the supply of industrial and drink water is provided primarily by surface water. Morocco has currently 118 multi-purpose dams. If the construction of these works was a necessity to ensure in all seasons, the water essential to our country, it is impartial to control and protect the quality of running water. -Most dam reservoir used are threatened by eutrophication due to increased terrigenous and anthropogenic pollutants, coming from an over-fertilization of water by phosphorus and nitrogen nutrients and accelerated by uncontrolled development of microalgae aging. It should also be noted that the daily practices of citizens with respect to the resource, an essential component involved in almost all human activities (agriculture, agro-industries, hydropower, ...), has contributed significantly to the deterioration of water quality despite its treatment in several plants. Therefore, the treated water, provides a legacy of bad tastes and odors unacceptable to the consumer. -The present work exhibits results of water quality watershed Oum Erbia used to supply drinking water to the whole terraced area connecting the city of Khenifra to the city of Azemmour. The area south west of Great Casablanca (metropolis of the kingdom with about 4 million inhabitants) supplied 50% of its water needs by sourcing Dam Sidi Said Maachou located, last anchor point of the watershed before the spill in the Atlantic Ocean. The results were performed in a spatio-temporal scale and helped to establish a history of monitoring water quality during the 2009-2011 cycles, the study also presents the development of quality according to the seasonal rhythmicity and rainfall. It gives also an overview on the concept of watershed stewardship.

Keywords: crude surface water quality, Oum Er Rbia hydraulic basin, spatio-temporal monitoring, Great Casablanca drink water quality, Morocco

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190 Effect of Zidovudine on Hematological and Virologic Parameters among Female Sex Workers Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in North-Western Nigeria

Authors: N. M. Sani, E. D. Jatau, O. S. Olonitola, M. Y. Gwarzo, P. Moodley, N. S. Mujahid

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Haemoglobin (HB) indicates anaemia level and by extension may reflect the nutritional level and perhaps the immunity of an individual. Some antiretroviral drugs like zidovudine are known to cause anaemia in People living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). A cross-sectional study using demographic data and blood specimen from 218 female commercial sex workers attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics was conducted between December 2009 and July 2011 to assess the effect of zidovudine on haematologic and RNA viral load of female sex workers receiving antiretroviral treatment in north-western Nigeria. Anaemia is a common and serious complication of both HIV infection and its treatment. In the setting of HIV infection, anaemia has been associated with decreased quality of life, functional status, and survival. Antiretroviral therapy, particularly the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), has been associated with a decrease in the incidence and severity of anaemia in HIV-infected patients who have received a HAART regimen for at least 1 year. In this study, result has shown that out of 218 patients, 26 with haemoglobin count between 5.1–10 g/dl were observed to have the highest viral load count of 300,000–350,000 copies/ml. It was also observed that most patients (190) with HB of 10.1–15.0 g/dl had viral load count of 200,000–250,000 copies/ml. An inverse relationship therefore exists, i.e. the lower the haemoglobin level, the higher the viral load count, even though the test statistics did not show any significance between the two (P=0.206). This shows that multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that anaemia was associated with a CD4+ cell count below 50/µL in female sex workers with a viral load above 100,000 copies/mL who use zidovudine. Severe anaemia was less prevalent in this study population than in historical comparators; however, mild to moderate anaemia rates remain high. The study, therefore, recommends that hematological and virologic parameters be monitored closely in patients receiving first line ART regimen.

Keywords: anaemia, female sex worker, haemoglobin, Zidovudine

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189 The Vulnerability of Farmers in Valencia Negros Oriental to Climate Change: El Niño Phenomenon and Malnutrition

Authors: J. K. Pis-An

Abstract:

Objective: The purpose of the study was to examine the vulnerability of farmers to the effects of climate change, specifically the El Niño phenomenon was felt in the Philippines in 2009-2010. Methods: KAP Survey determines behavioral response to vulnerability to the effects of El Niño. Body Mass Index: Dietary Assessment using 24-hour food recall. Results: 75% of the respondents claimed that crop significantly decreased during drought. Indications that households of farmers are large where 51.6% are composed of 6-10 family members with 68% annual incomes below Php 100,00. Anthropometric assessment showed that the prevalence of Chronic Energy Deficiency Grade 1 among females 17% and 28.57% for low normal. While male body mass index result for chronic energy deficiency grade 1 10%, low normal 18.33% and and obese grade 1, 31.67%. Dietary assessment of macronutrient intake of carbohydrates, protein, and fat 31.6 % among respondents are below recommended amounts. Micronutrient deficiency of calcium, iron, vit. A, thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, and Vit. C. Conclusion: Majority of the rural populations are engaged into farming livelihood that makes up the backbone of their economic growth. Placing the current nutritional status of the farmers in the context of food security, there are reasons to believe that the status will go for worse if the extreme climatic conditions will once again prevail in the region. Farmers rely primarily on home grown crops for their food supply, a reduction in farm production during drought is expected to adversely affect dietary intake. The local government therefore institute programs to increase food resiliency and to prioritize health of the population as the moving force for productivity and development.

Keywords: world health organization, united nation framework convention on climate change, anthropometric, macronutrient, micronutrient

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188 Development of Monoclonal Antibodies against the Acute Hepatopancreatic Necrosis Disease Toxins

Authors: Naveen Kumar B. T., Anuj Tyagi, Niraj Kumar Singh, Visanu Boonyawiwat, Shanthanagouda A. H., Orawan Boodde, Shankar K. M., Prakash Patil, Shubhkaramjeet Kaur

Abstract:

Since 2009, Acute Hepatopancreatic Necrosis Disease (AHPND) outbreaks have increased rapidly, and these have led to the major economic losses to the global shrimp industry. In comparison to other treatments, passive immunity and monoclonal antibody (MAb) based farmer level kit have proved their importance in controlling and treating the diseases in the shrimp industry. In the present study, MAbs were produced against the recombinant PirB protein Vibrio parahaemolyticus strain causing AHPND. Briefly, Balb/C mice were immunized with rPirB at 15 days interval, and antibody titer was determined by ELISA. Spleen cells from mice showing high antibody titer were fused with SP2O myeloma cells for hybridoma production. Among 130 hybridomas, four showed high antibody titer and positive reactivity in an immunoblot assay. In Western blot assay, three out of four MAbs (4C4, 2C2 and 4G3) showed reactivity to rPirB protein. However, in the natural host, only Mab clone 4G3 show strong reactivity (with a strain of V. parahemolyticus causing EMS/AHPND). These clones also showed reactivity with less than 20 kDa proteins in AHPND free V. parahaemolyticus (Thailand stain). Further, on from MAb 4G3 clone, four panels of single cell MAbs clones (G3F5, G3B8, G3H2, and G3D6) were produced of which three showed strong positive reactivity to rPirB protein in the Western blot. These MAbs have potential for controlling and prevention of the AHPND through passive immunity and development of filed level rapid diagnostic kits.

Keywords: shrimp, economic loss, AHPND, MAb

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187 Dietary Intake and the Risk of Hypertriglyceridemia in Adults: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Authors: Parvin Mirmiran, Zahra Bahadoran, Sahar Mirzae, Fereidoun Azizi

Abstract:

Background and aim: Lifestyle factors, especially dietary intakes play an important role in metabolism of lipids and lipoproteins. In this study, we assessed the association between dietary factors and 3-year changes of serum triglycerides (TG), HDL-C and the atherogenic index of plasma among Iranian adults. This longitudinal study was conducted on 1938 subjects, aged 19-70 years, who participated in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Demographics, anthropometrics and biochemical measurements including serum TG were assessed at baseline (2006-2008) and after a 3-year follow-up (2009-2011). Dietary data were collected by using a 168-food item, validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline. The risk of hypertriglyceridemia in the quartiles of dietary factors was evaluated using logistic regression models with adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, smoking, physical activity and energy intakes. Results: Mean age of the participants at baseline was 41.0±13.0 y. Mean TG and HDL-C at baseline was 143±86 and 42.2±10.0 mg/dl, respectively. Three-year change of serum TG were inversely related energy intake from phytochemical rich foods, whole grains, and legumes (P<0.05). Higher intakes compared to lower ones of dietary fiber and phytochemical-rich foods had similar impact on decreased risk of hyper-triglyceridemia (OR=0.58, 95% CI=0.34-1.00). Higher- compared to lower-dietary sodium to potassium ratios (Na/K ratio) increased the risk of hypertriglyceridemia by 63% (OR=0.1.63, 95% CI= 0.34-1.00). Conclusion: Findings showed that higher intakes of fiber and phytochemical rich foods especially whole grain and legumes could have protective effects against lipid disorders; in contrast higher sodium to potassium ratio had undesirable effect on triglycerides.

Keywords: lipid disorders, hypertriglyceridemia, diet, food science

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186 Role of Obama's Administration Counter-Terrorism Strategies towards Pakistan

Authors: Ahmed Bux Jamali

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to examine and evaluate the overall counterterrorism cooperation during Obama Administration towards Pakistan. It aims and focuses on the performances and measures taken by United States of America during President Obama in office in order to eradicate terrorism from Pakistan. Being a grave national security threat, terrorism played a disastrous role in the domestic peace and stability of both countries. For the sake of curbing this menace in South Asia in general and Pakistan in particular, the role of Obama Administration is viable and results-oriented despite major ups and downs in Pakistan U.S Relations during that period of time. Obama administration formulated policies when he comes to office in 2009 by looking at the already efforts done by Bush Administration to counterterrorism from Pakistan. Obama’s foreign policy was revolving around defense and diplomacy when it comes to dealing with Pakistan. The concept of smart power was indeed a core principle of Obama’s administration to gain the strategic objectives in Pakistan. Obama’s strategies in terms of providing military aid packages and various assistance programs, working on institutional building and strengthening the economy helped Pakistan in strengthening the military capabilities to go for militant operation in the safe havens area in the tribal areas of Pakistan. It further helped building institutional mechanism in the governmental policies to counter terrorism and militancy. The training of combat forces, artillery, and equipment provided by US proved fatal for the militant terrorist organizations seeking hideouts in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Resultantly, many top leaders of al Qaeda and many affiliated militant groups were captured and given to US as well. Despite many ups and downs in the bilateral relations on various domestic and international issues, both countries didn’t compromise the elimination of terrorist phenomena from Pakistan which was indeed a great success of the Obama administration’s counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies in the long run.

Keywords: counterterrorism cooperation, national security strategy, Obama administration, Pakistan-US relations

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185 Outcomes of Using Guidelines for Caring and Referring ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) Patients at the Accident and Emergency Department of Songkhla Hospital, Thailand

Authors: Thanom Kaeniam

Abstract:

ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) is a state of sudden death of the heart muscle due to sudden blockage of the artery. STEMI patients are usually in critical condition and with a potential opportunity for sudden death. Therefore, management guidelines for safety in caring and referring STEMI patients are needed. The objective of this developmental research was to assess the effectiveness of using the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients at the Accident and Emergency Department of Songkhla Hospital. The subjects of the study were 22 nurses in the emergency room, and doctors on duty in the accident and emergency room selected using purposive sampling with inclusion criteria. The research instruments were the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients, and record forms for the effectiveness of using the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients (a general record form for STEMI patients, a record form for SK administering, a referring record form for PCI, and a record form for dead patient in the accident and emergency room and during referring). The instruments were tested for content validity by three experts, and the reliability was tested using Kuder-Richardson 20 (KR20). The descriptive statistic employed was the percentage. The outcomes of using the guidelines for caring and referring ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) Patients at the Accident and Emergency Department revealed that before using the guidelines in 2009, 2010, and 2011, there were 84, 73, and 138 STEMI patients receiving services at the accident and emergency room, of which, only 9, 32, and 48 patients were referred for PCI/SK medications, or 10.74; 43.84; and 34.78 percent, and the death rates were 10.71; 10.95; and 11.59 percent, respectively. However, after the use of the guidelines in 2012, 2013, and 2014, there were 97, 77, and 57 patients, of which, the increases to 77, 72, and 55 patients were referred for PCI /SK medications or 79.37; 93.51; and 96.49 percent, and the death rates were reduced to 10.30; 6.49; and 1.76 percent, respectively. The results of the study revealed that the use of the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients at the Accident and Emergency Department increased the effectiveness and quality of nursing, especially in terms of SK medication, caring and referring patients for PCI to reduce the death rate.

Keywords: outcomes, guidelines for caring, referring, myocardial infarction, STEMI

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184 The Right to a Fair Trial in French and Spanish Constitutional Law

Authors: Chloe Fauchon

Abstract:

In Europe, the right to a fair trial is enshrined in the European Convention on Human Rights, signed in 1950, in its famous Article 6, and, in the field of the European Union, in Article 47 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights, binding since 2009. The right to a fair trial is, therefore, a fundamental right protected by all the relevant treaties. The right to a fair trial is an "umbrella right" which encompasses various sub-rights and principles. Although this right applies in all the proceedings, it gets a special relevance in criminal matters and, particularly, regarding the defendant. In criminal proceedings, the parties are not equal: the accusation is represented by a State-organ, with specific prerogatives, and the defense does not benefit from these specific powers and is often inexperienced in criminal law. Equality of arms, and consequently the right to a fair trial, needs some specific mechanisms to be effective in criminal proceedings. For instance, the defendant benefits from some procedural rights, such as the right to a lawyer, the right to be informed of the charges against them, the right to confront witnesses, and so on. These rights aim to give the defendant the tools to dispute the accusation. The role of the defense is, therefore, very important in criminal matters to avoid unjustified convictions. This specificity of criminal matters justifies that the focus will be put on them during this study. Then this paper will also focus on French and Spanish legal orders. Indeed, if the European Court and Convention on Human Rights are the most famous instruments to protect the right to a fair trial, this right is also guaranteed at a constitutional level in European national legal orders in Europe. However, this enshrinement differs from one country to the other: for instance, in Spain, the right to a fair trial is protected explicitly by the 1978 constitutional text, whereas, in France, it is more of a case-law construction. Nevertheless, this difference between both legal orders does not imply huge variations in the substantive aspect of the right to a fair trial. This can be specifically explained by the submission of both States to the European Convention on Human Rights. This work aims to show that, although the French and Spanish legal orders differ in the way they protect the right to a fair trial, this right eventually has the same substantive meaning in both legal orders.

Keywords: right to a fair trial, constitutional law, French law, Spanish law, European Court of Human Rights

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183 The Association of Slope Failure and Lineament Density along the Ranau-Tambunan Road, Sabah, Malaysia

Authors: Norbert Simon, Rodeano Roslee, Abdul Ghani Rafek, Goh Thian Lai, Azimah Hussein, Lee Khai Ern

Abstract:

The 54 km stretch of Ranau-Tambunan (RTM) road in Sabah is subjected to slope failures almost every year. This study is focusing on identifying section of roads that are susceptible to failure based on temporal landslide density and lineament density analyses. In addition to the analyses, the rock slopes in several sections of the road were assessed using the geological strength index (GSI) technique. The analysis involved 148 landslides that were obtained in 1978, 1994, 2009 and 2011. The landslides were digitized as points and the point density was calculated based on every 1km2 of the road. The lineaments of the area was interpreted from Landsat 7 15m panchromatic band. The lineament density was later calculated based on every 1km2 of the area using similar technique with the slope failure density calculation. The landslide and lineament densities were classified into three different classes that indicate the level of susceptibility (low, moderate, high). Subsequently, the two density maps were overlap to produce the final susceptibility map. The combination of both high susceptibility classes from these maps signifies the high potential of slope failure in those locations in the future. The final susceptibility map indicates that there are 22 sections of the road that are highly susceptible. Seven rock slopes were assessed along the RTM road using the GSI technique. It was found from the assessment that rock slopes along this road are highly fractured, weathered and can be classified into fair to poor categories. The poor condition of the rock slope can be attributed to the high lineament density that presence in the study area. Six of the rock slopes are located in the high susceptibility zones. A detailed investigation on the 22 high susceptibility sections of the RTM road should be conducted due to their higher susceptibility to failure, in order to prevent untoward incident to road users in the future.

Keywords: GSI, landslide, landslide density, landslide susceptibility, lineament density

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182 In Exile but Not at Peace: An Ethnography among Rwandan Army Deserters in South Africa

Authors: Florence Ncube

Abstract:

This paper examines the military and post-military experiences of soldiers who deserted from the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and tried to make a living in South Africa. Because they are deserters, they try to hide their military identity, yet it is simultaneously somewhat coercively ascribed to them by the Rwandan state and can put them in potential danger. The paper attends to the constructions, experiences, practices, and subjective understanding of the deserters’ being in exile to examine how, under circumstances of perceived threat, these men navigate real or perceived state-sponsored surveillance and threat in non-military settings in South Africa where they have become potential political and disciplinary targets. To make sense of the deserters’ experiences in these circumstances, the paper stitches together a number of useful theoretical concepts, including Bourdieu’s (1992) theory of practice and Vigh’s (2009; 2018) concept of social navigation because no single approach can coherently analyze the specificity of this study. Conventional post-military literature privileges an understanding of army desertion as a malignancy and somewhat problematic. Little is known about the military and post-military experiences of deserters who believe that army desertion is in fact a building block towards achieving subjective peace, even in the context of exile. The paper argues that the presence of Rwandan state agents in South Africa strips the context of the exile of its capacity to provide the deserters with peace, safety, and security. This paper recenters army desertion in analyses of militarism, soldiering, and transition in African contexts and complicates commonsense understandings of army desertion which assume that it is entirely problematic. This paper is drawn from an ethnography conducted among 30 junior-rank Rwandan army deserters exiled in Johannesburg and Cape Town. The researcher employed life histories, in-depth interviews, and deep hangouts to collect data.

Keywords: army deserter, military, identity, exile, peacebuilding, South Africa

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181 Hypothesis on Annual Sea Level Variation and Increased Volume Transport in Korea Strait

Authors: Young-Taeg Kim, Gwang Ho Seo, Hyungju Oh, Ho Kyung Ha, Kuk Jin Kim

Abstract:

Kim et al., hypothesized an increase in volume transport in the Korea Strait based on the concurrent increase in water temperature and mean sea level observed by the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA) in the vicinity of the Korea Strait from 2000 to 2009. Since then, to our best knowledge, no definitive studies have been reported on the increase in volume transport through the Korea Strait, but the observed water temperature (2000-2021) and sea level (1989-2021) in the Korea Strait and East Sea have been found to be increasing. In particular, the rapid increase rate in the mean sea level rise (2.55~3.53 mm/y) in these areas cannot be explained by only steric effect due to the increased water temperature. It is more reasonable interpretation that the sea level rise is due to an increase in the volume transport of warm and salty currents. If the increase in the volume transport is explained by the geostrophic equation without considering the sea level rise in the Korea Strait, the current velocity should increase. However, up to now, there are no reports of an increase in current velocity from direct observations using ADCP (e.g., observations of Camellia) or from various numerical models. Therefore, the increase in volume transport cannot be explained by the geostrophic equation. Another possible explanation for the increase in the volume transport is the effect of wind. Although Korea is dominated by monsoon, it is affected by winds according to El Niño and La Niña, which have a cycle of about 3 to 4 years. During El Niño (La Niña), northerly winds (southerly winds) prevail in Korea. Consequently, it is inferred that the transported volume in the Korea Strait slowly increases interannually. However, in this study, it was difficult to find a clear correlation between annually-averaged mean sea level and El Niño (or La Niña) during 1989-2021. This is probably due to the interactions of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) along with the ENSO (El niño-Southern Oscillation). However, it is clear that the interannual variability of winds is affecting the volume transport in the Korean Strait. On the other hand, the effect of global sea level rise on the volume transport in the Korea Strait is small compared to the interannual variability of the volume transport, but it seems to play a constant role.

Keywords: mean sea level, volume transport, El nino, La nina

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180 Revisiting Classic Triad of Japanese Spotted Fever: A Case Series of Forty-Three Patients

Authors: Y. Kunitani, Y. Nakashima, S. Yamauchi, Y. Ishigami, K. Naito, K. Numata, M. Mizobe, Y. Homma, J. Takahashi, T. Inoue, T. Shiga, H. Funakoshi

Abstract:

Background: Japanese Spotted Fever (JSF) is one of the Rickettsial infections, caused by Rickettsia japonica, which is transmitted by ticks. JSF is seen in limited area, such as Japan and South Korea. Its clinical triad is rash, eschar and fever. It often shows leukocytopenia, thrombopenia, elevated transaminase and high C-reactive protein (CRP). Sometimes it can be life-threatening due to disseminated intravascular coagulation or multiple organ failure. Study Aim: The aim of this study is to describe the features of JSF, as this unique infection is rapidly growing in Japan. Methods: This is a case series of JSF from 2009 to 2016, in Mie Prefectural Hospital in Japan. We collected JSF cases, which were diagnosed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of the skin or blood serum, or the elevation of the antibody titer of paired blood samples. Results: There were 43 JSF patients (19 male, 24 female) with a median age of 71 years [IQR:65-80]. The median body temperature was 38.1°C[IQR: 37.5-39.0]. 95% had a rash, 67% had eschar and 50% had fever. The median WBC count was 6,700 [IQR: 5,750-8,200] and leukocytopenia was observed in only 7%. The median platelet count was 14x104 [IQR10x104-17x104], thrombopenia was observed in 65%. The median aspartate transaminase (AST) was 53 IU/L [IQR: 41-93]; the median alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was 34 IU/L [IQR: 24-54]; the median CRP was 10.4 mg/dL [IQR:7.2-13.9]; the median lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was 352IU/L [IQR:282-451]. CRP and LDH were elevated in almost all of the patients. Median length of stay in hospital was 8 days [IQR: 6-11]. All patients were treated with tetracycline and quinolone on the day of the presentation. There was no fatality from JSF. Conclusion: The patients with JSF classically presents with eschar, rash and fever. However, in this study, the half of the patients were afebrile. Although JSF is not a common infectious disease worldwide, if the patient had previously visited Japan or South Korea and presented with rash and eschar with or without fever, we should consider JSF as a potential diagnosis.

Keywords: infectious disease, Japanese spotted fever, Rickettsial disease, Rickettsia japonica

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179 Buy-and-Hold versus Alternative Strategies: A Comparison of Market-Timing Techniques

Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

Abstract:

With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

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178 Effect of an Oral Dose of M. elsdenii NCIMB 41125 on Lower Digestive Tract, Bacteria Count and Rumen Fermentation in Holstein Calves

Authors: M. C. Muya, L. J. Erasmus

Abstract:

Twenty four new born male Holstein calves were divided into two treatments groups and used to evaluate the effects of M. elsdenii NCIMB 41125. The first groups were dosed with 50 ml containing 108 CFU/mL of M. elsdenii NCIMB 41125 (Me) and the control calves were not dosed. Within each of the two treatments groups, calves were divided into three treatment groups (Not dosed: 7 d, 14 d and 21 d vs dosed Me 7 d, Me14 and Me21 d (treatments), each groups contained 4 calves within which two calves were euthanized at 24 h and two calves at 72 h. Calves entered the trial until euthanize at whether 24 or 72 H after dosing time. After receiving colostrum for 3 consecutive days after birth, calves were fed whole milk and had free access to a commercial calf starter pellet and fresh water. Fecal grab samples were taken from each calf in duplicate +24 h or +72 h relative to dosing. Immediately after euthanizing, the digestive tract was harvested, and duplicate rumen and colon digesta samples collected for VFA’s determination and DNA extraction for bacteria count using 16s RNA PCR probe technique. Independent two t-test was performed to compare mean volatile fatty acids. Mixed-effects linear regressions were performed to establish relationships between: 1) M. elsdenii and Me, and between VFA’s and Me using SAS (2009). M. elsdenii NCIMB 41125 was detected in the faeces, colon and rumen of dosed calves at both +24H and +72H and ranged from 1.6 x 106 to 4.9 x 109 cfu/ml, indicating its potential to colonize in the digestive tract of calves. There was a strong positive relationship (R²=0.96; P < 0.0001) between M. elsdenii NCIMB 41125 and M. elsdenii population (cfu/ml) in the rumen, suggesting that the increase in M. elsdenii was due to increased M. elsdenii NCIMB 41125. An increase in butyrate was observed from +24 h to +72 h when calves were dosed on both d 7 and 14. Results showed that Me presented a positive relationship with butyrate (P < 0.001, R² = 0.43) and a concomitant negative relationship with acetate (P = 0.017, R² = -0.33). These results suggest that dosing pre-weaned dairy calves with M. elsdenii NCIMB 41125 has the potential to alter ruminal VFA production through increasing proportions of butyrate at the expense of propionate.

Keywords: calves, megasphaera elsdenii, rumen fermentation, bacteria

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177 A Comparison of Outcomes of Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography vs. Percutaneous Transhepatic Biliary Drainage in the Management of Obstructive Jaundice from Hepatobiliary Tuberculosis: The Philippine General Hospital Experience

Authors: Margaret Elaine J. Villamayor, Lobert A. Padua, Neil S. Bacaltos, Virgilio P. Bañez

Abstract:

Significance: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of Hepatobiliary Tuberculosis (HBTB) with biliary obstruction and to compare the outcomes of ERCP versus PTBD in these patients. Methodology: This is a cross-sectional study involving patients from PGH who underwent biliary drainage from HBTB from January 2009 to June 2014. HBTB was defined as having evidence of TB (culture, smear, PCR, histology) or clinical diagnosis with the triad of jaundice, fever, and calcifications on imaging with other causes of jaundice excluded. The primary outcome was successful drainage and secondary outcomes were mean hospital stay and complications. Simple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with success of drainage, z-test for two proportions to compare outcomes of ERCP versus PTBD and t-test to compare mean hospital stay post-procedure. Results: There were 441 patients who underwent ERCP and PTBD, 19 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. 11 underwent ERCP while 8 had PTBD. There were more successful cases in PTBD versus ERCP but this was not statistically significant (p-value 0.3615). Factors such as age, gender, location and nature of obstruction, vices, coexisting pulmonary or other extrapulmonary TB and presence of portal hypertension did not affect success rates in these patients. The PTBD group had longer mean hospital stay but this was not significant (p-value 0.1880). There were no complications reported in both groups. Conclusion: HBTB comprises 4.3% of the patients undergoing biliary drainage in PGH. Both ERCP and PTBD are equally safe and effective in the management of biliary obstruction from HBTB.

Keywords: cross-sectional, hepatobiliary tuberculosis, obstructive jaundice, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage

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176 Changing Patterns of Colorectal Cancer in Hail Region

Authors: Laila Salah Seada, Ashraf Ibrahim, Fawaz Al Rashid, Ihab Abdo, Hassan Kasim, Waleed Al Mansi, Saud Al Shabli

Abstract:

Background and Objectives: Colorectal carcinoma is increasing among both men and women worldwide. It has a multifactorial etiology including genetic factors, environmental factors and inflammatory conditions of the digestive tract. A clinicopathologic assessment of colorectal carcinoma in Hail region is done, considering any changing patterns in two 5-year periods from 2005-2009 (A) and from 2012 to 2017 (B). All data had been retrieved from histopathology files of King Khalid Hospital, Hail. Results: During period (A), 75 cases were diagnosed as colorectal carcinoma. Male patients comprised 56/75 (74.7%) of the study, with a mean age of 58.4 (36-97), while females were 19/75 (25.3%) with a mean age of 50.3(30-85) and the difference was significant (p = 0.05). M:F ratio was 2.9:1. Most common histological type was adenocarcioma in 68/75 (90.7%) patients mostly well differentiated in 44/68 (64.7%). Mucinous neoplasms comprised only 7/75 (9.3%) of cases and tended to have a higher stage (p = 0.04). During period (B), 115 cases were diagnosed with an increase of 53.3% in number of cases than period (A). Male to female ratio also decreased to 1.35:1, females being 44.83% more affected. Adenocarcinoma remained the prevalent type (93.9%), while mucinous type was still rare (5.2%). No distal metastases found at time of presentation. Localization of tumors was rectosigmoid in group (A) in 41.4%, which increased to 56.6% in group (B), with an increase of 15.2%. Iliocecal location also decreased from 8% to 3.5%, being 56.25% less. Other proximal areas of the colon were decreased by 25.75%, from 53.9% in group (A) to 40% in group (B). Conclusion: Colorectal carcinoma in Hail region has increased by 53.3% in the past 5 years, with more females being diagnosed. Localization has also shifted distally by 15.2%. These findings are different from Western world patterns which experienced a decrease in incidence and proximal shift of the colon cancer localization. This might be due to better diagnostic tools, population awareness of the disease, as well as changing of life style and/or food habits in the region.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, Hail Region, changing pattern, distal shift

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