Search results for: reduced order macro models

Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Yasser R. Shaban

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A practical multipurpose device for medical isotopes production is most wanted for clinical centers and researches. Unfortunately, the major supply of these radioisotopes currently comes from aging sources, and there is a great deal of uneasiness in the domestic market. There are also many cases where the cost of certain radioisotopes is too high for their introduction on a commercial scale even though the isotopes might have great benefits for society. The medical isotopes such as radiotracers PET (Positron Emission Tomography), Technetium-99 m, and Iodine-131, Lutetium-177 by is feasible to be generated by a single unit named IEMC (Inertial Electrostatic Magnetic Confinement). The IEMC fusion vessel is the upgrading unit of the Inertial Electrostatic Confinement IEC fusion vessel. Comprehensive experimental works on IEC were carried earlier with promising results. The principle of inertial electrostatic magnetic confinement IEMC fusion is based on forcing the binary fuel ions to interact in the opposite directions in ions cyclotrons orbits with different kinetic energies in order to have equal compression (forces) and with different ion cyclotron frequency ω in order to increase the rate of intersection. The IEMC features greater fusion volume than IEC by several orders of magnitude. The particles rate from the IEMC approach are projected to be 8.5 x 10¹¹ (p/s), ~ 0.2 microampere proton, for D/He-3 fusion reaction and 4.2 x 10¹² (n/s) for D/T fusion reaction. The projected values of particles yield (neutrons and protons) are suitable for medical isotope productions on-site by a single unit without any change in the fusion vessel but only the fuel gas. The PET radiotracers are usually produced on-site by medical ion accelerator whereas Technetium-99m (Tc-99m) is usually produced off-site from the irradiation facilities of nuclear power plants. Typically, hospitals receive molybdenum-99 isotope container; the isotope decays to Tc-99mwith half-life time 2.75 days. Even though the projected current from IEMC is lesser than the proton current from the medical ion accelerator but still the IEMC vessel is simpler, and reduced in components and power consumption which add a new value of populating the PET radiotracers in most clinical centers. On the other hand, the projected neutrons flux from the IEMC is lesser than the thermal neutron flux at the irradiation facilities of nuclear power plants, but in the IEMC case the productions of Technetium-99m is suggested to be at the resonance region of which the resonance integral cross section is two orders of magnitude higher than the thermal flux. Thus it can be said the net activity from both is evened. Besides, the particle accelerator cannot be considered a multipurpose particles production unless a significant change is made to the accelerator to change from neutrons mode to protons mode or vice versa. In conclusion, the projected fusion yield from IEMC is a straightforward since slightly change in the primer IEC and ion source is required.

Keywords: electrostatic versus magnetic confinement fusion vessel, ion source, medical isotopes productions, neutron activation

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Authors: Lakhoua Najeh

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Aims of the work: After a presentation of the functionality of an example of a mechatronic system which is a paint mixer system, we present the concepts of modeling and safe operation. This paper briefly discusses how to model and protect the functioning of a mechatronic system relying mainly on functional analysis and safe operation techniques. Methods: For the study of an example of a mechatronic system, we use methods for external functional analysis that illustrate the relationships between a mechatronic system and its external environment. Thus, we present the Safe-Structured Analysis Design Technique method (Safe-SADT) which allows the representation of a mechatronic system. A model of operating safety and automation is proposed. This model enables us to use a functional analysis technique of the mechatronic system based on the GRAFCET (Graphe Fonctionnel de Commande des Etapes et Transitions: Step Transition Function Chart) method; study of the safe operation of the mechatronic system based on the Safe-SADT method; automation of the mechatronic system based on a software tool. Results: The expected results are to propose a model and safe operation of a mechatronic system. This methodology enables us to analyze the relevance of the different models based on Safe-SADT and GRAFCET in relation to the control and monitoring functions and to study the means allowing exploiting their synergy. Conclusion: In order to propose a general model of a mechatronic system, a model of analysis, safety operation and automation of a mechatronic system has been developed. This is how we propose to validate this methodology through a case study of a paint mixer system.

Keywords: mechatronic systems, system modeling, safe operation, Safe-SADT

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Authors: R. L. Shirole, N. L. Shirole, R. B. Patil, M. N. Saraf

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The present investigation aimed to elucidate the probable mechanism of antiasthmatic action of essential oil of Pistacia integerrima J.L. Stewart ex Brandis galls (EOPI). EOPI was investigated for its potential antiasthmatic action using in vitro antiallergic assays mast cell degranulation and soyabean lipoxidase enzyme activit, and spasmolytic action using isolated guinea pig ileum preparation. In vivo studies included lipopolysaccharide-induced bronchial inflammation in rats and airway hyperresponsiveness in ovalbumin in sensitized guinea pigs using spirometry. Data was analysed by GraphPad Prism 5.01 and results were expressed as means ± SEM. P < 0.05 was considered to be significant. EOPI inhibits 5-lipoxidase enzyme activity, DPPH scavenging activity and erythropoietin- induced angiogenesis. It showed dose dependent anti-allergic activity by inhibiting compound 48/80 induced mast cell degranulation. The finding that essential oil induced inhibition of transient contraction of acetylcholine in calcium free medium, and relaxation of S-(-)-Bay 8644-precontracted isolated guinea pig ileum jointly suggest that suggesting that the L-subtype Cav channel is involved in spasmolytic action of EOPI. Treatment with EOPI dose dependently (7.5, 15 and 30 mg/kg i.p.) inhibited lipopolysaccharide- induced increased in total cell count, neutrophil count, nitrate-nitrite, total protein, albumin levels in bronchoalveolar fluid and myeloperoxidase levels in lung homogenates. Mild diffused lesions involving focal interalveolar septal, intraluminal infiltration of neutrophils were observed in EOPI (7.5 &15 mg/kg) pretreated while no abnormality was detected in EOPI (30 mg/kg) and roflumilast (1mg/kg) pretreated rats. Roflumilast was used as standard. EOPI reduced the respiratory flow due to gasping in ovalbumin sensitized guinea pigs. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of EOPI in bronchial asthma possibly related to its ability to inhibit L-subtype Cav channel, mast cell stabilization, antioxidant, angiostatic and through inhibition of 5-lipoxygenase enzyme.

Keywords: asthma, lipopolysaccharide, spirometry, Pistacia integerrima J.L. Stewart ex Brandis, essential oil

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Authors: Seyedmirsajad Mokhtarimousavi, Danial Talebi, Hamidreza Asgari

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Assigning aircrafts’ activities to appropriate gates is one the most challenging issues in airport authorities’ multiple criteria decision making. The potential financial loss due to imbalances of demand and supply in congested airports, higher occupation rates of gates, and the existing restrictions to expand facilities provide further evidence for the need for an optimal supply allocation. Passengers walking distance, towing movements, extra fuel consumption (as a result of awaiting longer to taxi when taxi conflicts happen at the apron area), etc. are the major traditional components involved in GAP models. In particular, the total cost associated with gate assignment problem highly depends on the airport terminal layout. The study herein presents a well-elaborated literature review on the topic focusing on major concerns, applicable variables and objectives, as well as proposing a three-objective mathematical model for the gate assignment problem. The model has been tested under different concourse layouts in order to check its performance in different scenarios. Results revealed that terminal layout pattern is a significant parameter in airport and that the proposed model is capable of dealing with key constraints and objectives, which supports its practical usability for future decision making tools. Potential solution techniques were also suggested in this study for future works.

Keywords: airport management, terminal layout, gate assignment problem, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Hatim Laalej, Salvador Sumohano-Verdeja, Thomas McLeay

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Monitoring of tool wear in milling operations is essential for achieving the desired dimensional accuracy and surface finish of a machined workpiece. Although there are numerous statistical models and artificial intelligence techniques available for monitoring the wear of cutting tools, these techniques cannot pin point which cutting edge of the tool, or which insert in the case of indexable tooling, is worn or broken. Currently, the task of monitoring the wear on the tool cutting edges is carried out by the operator who performs a manual inspection, causing undesirable stoppages of machine tools and consequently resulting in costs incurred from lost productivity. The present study is concerned with the development of a flute tracking system to segment signals related to each physical flute of a cutter with three flutes used in an end milling operation. The purpose of the system is to monitor the cutting condition for individual flutes separately in order to determine their progressive wear rates and to predict imminent tool failure. The results of this study clearly show that signals associated with each flute can be effectively segmented using the proposed flute tracking system. Furthermore, the results illustrate that by segmenting the sensor signal by flutes it is possible to investigate the wear in each physical cutting edge of the cutting tool. These findings are significant in that they facilitate the online condition monitoring of a cutting tool for each specific flute without the need for operators/engineers to perform manual inspections of the tool.

Keywords: machining, milling operation, tool condition monitoring, tool wear prediction

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Authors: Dominik Halstrup, Marlene Schriever

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The industry, as one of the main energy consumer, is of critical importance along the way of transforming the energy system to Renewable Energies. The distributed character of the Energy Transition demands for further flexibility being introduced to the grid. In order to shed further light on the acceptance of Electric Energy Storage (ESS) from an industrial point of view, this study therefore examines the German manufacturing industry. The analysis in this paper uses data composed of a survey amongst 101 manufacturing companies in Germany. Being part of a two-stage research design, both qualitative and quantitative data was collected. Based on a literature review an acceptance concept was developed in the paper and four user-types identified: (Dedicated) User, Impeded User, Forced User and (Dedicated) Non-User and incorporated in the questionnaire. Both descriptive and bivariate analysis is deployed to identify the level of acceptance in the different organizations. After a factor analysis has been conducted, variables were grouped to form independent acceptance factors. Out of the 22 organizations that do show a positive attitude towards ESS, 5 have already implemented ESS and show a positive attitude towards ESS. They can be therefore considered ‘Dedicated Users’. The remaining 17 organizations have a positive attitude but have not implemented ESS yet. The results suggest that profitability plays an important role as well as load-management systems that are already in place. Surprisingly, 2 organizations have implemented ESS even though they have a negative attitude towards it. This is an example for a ‘Forced User’ where reasons of overriding importance or supporters with overriding authority might have forced the company to implement ESS. By far the biggest subset of the sample shows (critical) distance and can therefore be considered ‘(Dedicated) Non-Users’. The results indicate that the majority of the respondents have not thought ESS in their own organization through yet. For the majority of the sample one can therefore not speak of critical distance but rather a distance due to insufficient information and the perceived unprofitability. This paper identifies the relative state of acceptance of ESS in the manufacturing industry as well as current reasons for hindrance and perspectives for future growth of ESS in an industrial setting from a policy level. The interest that is currently generated by the media could be channeled and taken into a more substantial and individual discussion about ESS in an industrial setting. If the current perception of profitability could be addressed and communicated accordingly, ESS and their use in for instance cooperative business models could become a topic for more organizations in Germany and other parts of the world. As price mechanisms tend to favor existing technologies, policy makers need to further access the use of ESS and acknowledge the positive effects when integrated in an energy system. The subfields of generation, transmission and distribution become increasingly intertwined. New technologies and business models, such as ESS or cooperative arrangements entering the market, increase the number of stakeholders. Organizations need to find their place within this array of stakeholders.

Keywords: acceptance, energy storage solutions, German energy transition, manufacturing industry

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Authors: Reinhold Kosfeld, Andreas Gohs

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In the reduction of CO₂ emissions, the transition to environmentally friendly transport modes has a high significance. In Germany, the climate protection programme 2030 includes various measures for promoting electromobility. Although electric cars at present hold a market share of just over one percent, its stock more than doubled in the past two years. Special measures like tax incentives and a buyer’s premium have been put in place to promote the shift towards electric cars and boost their diffusion. Knowledge of the future expansion of electric cars is required for planning purposes and adaptation measures. With a view of these objectives, we particularly investigate the effect of spatial spillovers on forecasting performance. For this purpose, time series econometrics and panel econometric models are designed for pure electric cars and hybrid cars for Germany. Regional forecasting models with spatial interactions are consistently estimated by using spatial econometric techniques. Regional data on the stocks of electric cars and their determinants at the district level (NUTS 3 regions) are available from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) for the period 2017 - 2019. A comparative examination of aggregated regional and national predictions provides quantitative information on accuracy gains by allowing for spatial spillovers in forecasting electric mobility.

Keywords: electric mobility, forecasting market diffusion, regional panel data model, spatial interaction

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Authors: Raffaella Sesana, Nazanin Sheibanian, Luca Corsaro, Sedat Özbilen, Rocco Lupoi, Francesco Artusio

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High Entropy Alloy (HEA) coatings of Al0.1-0.5CoCrCuFeNi and MnCoCrCuFeNi on Mg substrates were prepared from mechanically alloyed HEA powder feedstocks and at three different Cold Spray (CS) process gas (N2) temperatures (650, 750 and 850°C). Mechanically alloyed and cold-sprayed HEA coatings were characterized by macro photography, OM, SEM+EDS study, micro-hardness testing, roughness, and porosity measurements. As a result of mechanical alloying (MA), harder particles are deformed and fractured. The particles in the Cu-rich region were coarser and more globular than those in the A1 phase, which is relatively soft and ductile. In addition to the A1 particles, there were some separate Cu-rich regions. Due to the brittle nature of the powder and the acicular shape, Mn-HEA powder exhibited a different trend with smaller particle sizes. It is observed that MA results in a loose structure characterized by many gaps, cracks, signs of plastic deformation, and small particles attached to the surface of the particle. Considering the experimental results obtained, it is not possible to conclude that the chemical composition of the high entropy alloy influences the roughness of the coating. It has been observed that the deposited volume increases with temperature only in the case of Al0.1 and Mg-based HEA, while for the rest of the Al-based HEA, there are no noticeable changes. There is a direct correlation between micro-hardness and the chemical composition of a coating: the micro-hardness of a coating increases as the percentage of aluminum increases in the sample. Compared to the substrate, the coating has a much higher hardness, and the hardness measured at the interface is intermediate.

Keywords: characterisation, cold spraying, HEA coatings, SEM+EDS

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Authors: Chia-Wen Yeh, Ting-Sheng Lin, Chih-Han Chang

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Pressure garment has been used to prevent and treat the hypertrophic scars following serious burns since 1970s. The use of pressure garment is believed to hasten the maturation process and decrease the highness of scars. Pressure garment is custom made by reducing circumferential measurement of the patient by 10%~20%, called Reduction Factor. However the exact reducing value used depends on the subjective judgment of the therapist and the feeling of patients throughout the try and error process. The Laplace Law can be applied to calculate the pressure from the dimension of the pressure garment by the circumferential measurements of the patients and the tension profile of the fabrics. The tension profile currently obtained neglects the stress relaxation and hysteresis effect within most elastic fabrics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of the tension attenuation, from stress relaxation and hysteresis effect of the fabrics. Samples of pressure garment were obtained from Sunshine Foundation Organization, a nonprofit organization for burn patients in Taiwan. The wall tension profile of pressure garments were measured on a material testing system. Specimens were extended to 10% of the original length, held for 1 hour for the influence of the stress relaxation effect to take place. Then, specimens were extended to 15% of the original length for 10 seconds, then reduced to 10% to simulate donning movement for the influence of the hysteresis effect to take place. The load history was recorded. The stress relaxation effect is obvious from the load curves. The wall tension is decreased by 8.5%~10% after 60mins of holding. The hysteresis effect is obvious from the load curves. The wall tension is increased slightly, then decreased by 1.5%~2.5% and lower than stress relaxation results after 60mins of holding. The wall tension attenuation of the fabric exists due to stress relaxation and hysteresis effect. The influence of hysteresis is more than stress relaxation. These effect should be considered in order to design and evaluate the pressure of pressure garment more accurately.

Keywords: hypertrophic scars, hysteresis, pressure garment, stress relaxation

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Authors: Wenfen Bi, Zeng Lin

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As a developing country, China is badly in need of capital and talents to develop the socialist country with Chinese characteristics. However, a large proportion of high income people with know-how technique, wealth and management experience have immigrated or plan to immigrate to other countries. Of course, this phenomenon has attracted the attention from both the government and researchers. One explanation might be that these high-income people lack confidence in China’s social development. Based on the data on W city’s comprehensive social situation surveyed by center for the social survey research of Wuhan university (CSSR) in 2014, this paper employed the structural equation model (SEM) to evaluate whether personal income affects social confidence, via the mediating effect of the sense of social equity (sense of right equity and sense of distributive equity). Bootstrap mediation analysis revealed that after controlling Demographic variables, personal income had a significant negative influence on sense of right equity and in turn, sense of rights equity can significantly positively predict social confidence. While personal income had no significant effect on sense of distributive equity, and sense of distributive equity did not significantly affect macro social confidence. Also, the direct effects of personal income on social confidence became not significant. These findings revealed the inner mechanism of the relationship between the personal income and social confidence in contemporary China, which was caused by mediating effect of sense of rights equity. That is, the higher the personal income, the lower the sense of rights equity, the lower the social confidence. Thus, the boost of the social confidence, especially for the rich, does not only depend on the equitable distribution of material wealth, but also on the right equity and making people feel rights equally in common life.

Keywords: personal income, sense of right equity, sense of social equity, social confidence

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Authors: Suveen Kumar

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Oral cancer (OC) is the sixth most death causing cancer in world which includes tumour of lips, floor of the mouth, tongue, palate, cheeks, sinuses, throat, etc. Conventionally, the techniques used for OC detection are toluidine blue staining, biopsy, liquid-based cytology, visual attachments, etc., however these are limited by their highly invasive nature, low sensitivity, time consumption, sophisticated instrument handling, sample processing and high cost. Therefore, we developed biosensing chips for non-invasive detection of OC via CYFRA-21-1 biomarker. CYFRA-21-1 (molecular weight: 40 kDa) is secreted in saliva of OC patients which is a non-invasive biological fluid with a cut-off value of 3.8 ng mL-1, above which the subjects will be suffering from oral cancer. Therefore, in first work, 3-aminopropyl triethoxy silane (APTES) functionalized zirconia (ZrO2) nanoparticles (APTES/nZrO2) were used to successfully detect CYFRA-21-1 in a linear detection range (LDR) of 2-16 ng mL-1 with sensitivity of 2.2 µA mL ng-1. Successively, APTES/nZrO2-RGO was employed to prevent agglomeration of ZrO2 by providing high surface area reduced graphene oxide (RGO) support and much wider LDR (2-22 ng mL-1) was obtained with remarkable limit of detection (LOD) as 0.12 ng mL-1. Further, APTES/nY2O3/ITO platform was used for oral cancer bioseneor development. The developed biosensor (BSA/anti-CYFRA-21-1/APTES/nY2O3/ITO) have wider LDR (0.01-50 ng mL-1) with remarkable limit of detection (LOD) as 0.01 ng mL-1. To improve the sensitivity of the biosensing platform, nanocomposite of yattria stabilized nanostructured zirconia-reduced graphene oxide (nYZR) based biosensor has been developed. The developed biosensing chip having ability to detect CYFRA-21-1 biomolecules in the range of 0.01-50 ng mL-1, LOD of 7.2 pg mL-1 with sensitivity of 200 µA mL ng-1. Further, the applicability of the fabricated biosensing chips were also checked through real sample (saliva) analysis of OC patients and the obtained results showed good correlation with the standard protein detection enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique.

Keywords: non-invasive, oral cancer, nanomaterials, biosensor, biochip

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Authors: Maria Tsouroufli, Andrea Mondokova, Subashini Suresh

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Background: The under-representation of women and consequent failure to fulfil their potential contribution to Science, Technology, Engineering, Maths, and Medicine (STEMM) subjects in the UK is an issue that the Higher Education sector is being encouraged to address. Focus: The aim of this research is to investigate the barriers, facilitators, and incentives that influence diverse groups of women who have embarked upon a related career in STEMM subjects. The project will address a number of interconnected research questions: 1. How do participants perceive the barriers, facilitators and incentives for women in terms of research, teaching and management/leadership at each stage of their development towards forging a career in STEMM? 2. How might gender intersect with ethnicity, pregnancy/maternity and academic grade in the career experiences of women in STEMM? 3. How do participants perceive the example of female role models in emulating them as a career model? 4. How do successful females in STEMM see themselves as role models and what strategies do they employ to promote their careers? 5. How does institutional culture manifest itself as a barrier or facilitator for women in STEMM subjects in the institution? Methodology and Theoretical framework: A mixed-methodology will be employed in a case study of one university. The study will draw on extant quantitative data for context and involve conducting a qualitative inquiry to discover the perceptions of staff and students around the key concepts under study (career progression, sense of belonging and tenure, role-models, personal satisfaction, perceived gender in/equality, institutional culture). The analysis will be informed by an intersectionality framework, feminist and gender theory, and organisational psychology and human resource management perspectives. Implications: Preliminary findings will be collected in 2017. Conclusions will be drawn and used to inform recruitment and retention, and the development and implementation of initiatives to enhance the experiences and outcomes of women working and studying in STEMM subjects in Higher Education.

Keywords: under-representation, women, STEMM subjects, intersectionality

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Authors: Stephen Bahooshy

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Our understanding of gender inequality has advanced in recent years. Differences in pay and societal gendered behaviour expectations have been emphasized. It is acknowledged globally that gender shapes everyone’s experiences of health and social care, including access to care, use of services and products, and the interaction with care providers. NHS Digital in England collects data from local authorities on the number of carers and people with support needs and the services they access. This data does not provide a gender breakdown. Caring can have many positive and negative impacts on carers’ health and wellbeing. For example, caring can improve physical health, provide a sense of pride and purpose, and reduced stress levels for those who undertake a caring role by choice. Negatives of caring include financial concerns, social isolation, a reduction in earnings, and not being recognized as a carer or involved and consulted by health and social care professionals. Treating male and female carers differently is by definition unequitable and precludes one gender from receiving the benefits of caring whilst potentially overburdening the other with the negatives of caring. In order to explore the issue on a preliminary basis, five local authorities who provide statutory adult social care services in England were sent Freedom of Information requests in 2019. The authorities were selected to include county councils and London boroughs. The authorities were asked to provide data on the amount of money spent on care at home packages to people over 65 years, broken down by gender and carer gender for each financial year between 2013 and 2019. Results indicated that in each financial year, female carers supporting someone over 65 years received less financial support for care at home support packages than male carers. Over the six-year period, this difference equated to a £9.5k deficit in financial support received on average per female carer when compared to male carers. An example of a London borough with the highest disparity presented an average weekly spend on care at home for people over 65 with a carer of £261.35 for male carers and £165.46 for female carers. Consequently, female carers in this borough received on average £95.89 less per week in care at home support than male carers. This highlights a real and potentially detrimental disparity in the care support received to female carers in order to support them to continue to care in parts of England. More research should be undertaken in this area to better explore this issue and to understand if these findings are unique to these social care providers or part of a wider phenomenon. NHS Digital should request local authorities collect data on gender in the same way that large employers in the United Kingdom are required by law to provide data on staff salaries by gender. People who allocate social care packages of support should consider the impact of gender when allocating support packages to people with support needs and who have carers to reduce any potential impact of gender bias on their decision-making.

Keywords: caregivers, carers, gender equality, social care

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Authors: Arie Yanwar Kapriadi

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This research is aiming to develop deeper understanding of the scale of power that shaped the biofuel policy. This research is important for the following reasons. Firstly, this research will enrich the body of literature within the field of political ecology, scale and environmental governance. Secondly, by focussing on energy transition policies, this research offers a critical perspective on how government policy, aimed at delivering low carbon sustainable energy systems, being scaled and implemented through multi variate stakeholders. Finally, the research could help the government of Indonesia as a policy evaluation on delivering low carbon sustainable energy systems at the macro level that (possibility) being unable to be delivered at different scale and instead being perceived differently by different stakeholders. Qualitative method is applied particularly an in depth interview with government officials as well as policy stakeholders outside of government and people in positions of responsibility with regards to policy delivery. There are 4 field study location where interview took place as well as sites visit to some biofuel refining facilities. There are some major companies which involve on the production and distribution of biofuel and its relation with biofuel feedstock industry as the source of data. The research investigates how the government biofuel policies correlated with other policy issues such as land reclassification and carbon emission reduction which also influenced plantations expansion as well as its impact on the local people. The preliminary result shows tension of power between governing authorities caused the Indonesian biofuel policy being unfocused which led to failing to meet its mandatory blending target despite the abundance of its feedstock.

Keywords: biofuel, energy transition, renewable energy, political ecology

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Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

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The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Oqba Basal, Andras Szabo

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Using mineral fertilization is increasing worldwide, as it is claimed to be majorly responsible for achieving high yields; however, the negative impacts of mineral fertilization on soil and environment are becoming more obvious, with alternative methods being more necessary and applicable, especially with the current climatic changes which have imposed serious abiotic stresses, such as drought. An experiment was made during 2017 growing season in Debrecen, Hungary to investigate the effects of inoculation and N fertilization on the seed yield and protein concentration of the soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) cultivar (Panonia Kincse) under three different irrigation regimes: severe drought stress (SD), moderate drought stress (MD) and control with no drought stress (ND). Three N fertilizer rates were applied: no N fertilizer (0 N), 35 kg ha⁻¹ of N fertilizer (35 N) and 105 kg ha⁻¹ of N fertilizer (105 N). Half of the seeds in each treatment was inoculated with Bradyrhizobium japonicum inoculant, and the other half was not inoculated. The results showed significant differences in the seed yield associated with inoculation, irrigation and the interaction between them, whereas there were no significant differences in the seed yield associated with fertilization alone or in interaction with inoculation or irrigation or both. When seeds were inoculated, yield was increased when (35 N) was applied compared to (0 N) but not significantly; however, the high rate of N fertilizer (105 N) reduced the yield to a level even less than (0 N). When seeds were not inoculated, the highest rate of N increased the yield the most compared to the other two N fertilizer rates whenever the drought was present (moderate or severe). Under severe drought stress, inoculation was positively and significantly correlated with yield; however, adding N fertilizer increased the yield of uninoculated plants compared to the inoculated ones, regardless of the rate of N fertilizer. Protein concentration in the seeds was significantly affected by irrigation and by fertilization, but not by inoculation. Protein concentration increased as the N fertilization rate increased, regardless of the inoculation or irrigation treatments; moreover, increasing the N rate reduced the correlation coefficient of protein concentration with the irrigation. It was concluded that adding N fertilizer is not always recommended, especially when seeds are inoculated before being sown; however, it is very important under severe drought stress to sustain yield. Enhanced protein concentrations could be achieved by applying N fertilization, whether the seeds were pre-inoculated or not.

Keywords: drought stress, N fertilization, protein concentration, soybean

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Authors: S. Raghibdoust, E. Kamari

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Research show that reduced functional hearing has a detrimental influence on the ability of an individual to establish proper phonological representations of words, since the phonological representations are claimed to mediate the conceptual processing of written words. Word processing efficiency is expected to decrease with a decrease in functional hearing. In other words, it is predicted that hearing individuals would be more capable of word processing than individuals with hearing loss, as their functional hearing works normally. Studies also demonstrate that the quality of the functional hearing affects reading comprehension via its effect on their word processing skills. In other words, better hearing facilitates the development of phonological knowledge, and can promote enhanced strategies for the recognition of written words, which in turn positively affect higher-order processes underlying reading comprehension. The aims of this study were to investigate and compare the effect of deafness on the participants’ abilities to process written words at the lexical and sentence levels through using two online and one offline reading comprehension tests. The performance of a group of 8 deaf male students (ages 8-12) was compared with that of a control group of normal hearing male students. All the participants had normal IQ and visual status, and came from an average socioeconomic background. None were diagnosed with a particular learning or motor disability. The language spoken in the homes of all participants was Persian. Two tests of word processing were developed and presented to the participants using OpenSesame software, in order to measure the speed and accuracy of their performance at the two perceptual and conceptual levels. In the third offline test of reading comprehension which comprised of semantically plausible and semantically implausible subject relative clauses, the participants had to select the correct answer out of two choices. The data derived from the statistical analysis using SPSS software indicated that hearing and deaf participants had a similar word processing performance both in terms of speed and accuracy of their responses. The results also showed that there was no significant difference between the performance of the deaf and hearing participants in comprehending semantically plausible sentences (p > 0/05). However, a significant difference between the performances of the two groups was observed with respect to their comprehension of semantically implausible sentences (p < 0/05). In sum, the findings revealed that the seriously impoverished sentence reading ability characterizing the profound deaf subjects of the present research, exhibited their reliance on reading strategies that are based on insufficient or deviant structural knowledge, in particular in processing semantically implausible sentences, rather than a failure to efficiently process written words at the lexical level. This conclusion, of course, does not mean to say that deaf individuals may never experience deficits at the word processing level, deficits that impede their understanding of written texts. However, as stated in previous researches, it sounds reasonable to assume that the more deaf individuals get familiar with written words, the better they can recognize them, despite having a profound phonological weakness.

Keywords: deafness, reading comprehension, reading strategy, word processing, subject and object relative sentences

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Authors: Seyed Esmail Seyedi Bariran, Khairul Salleh Mohamed Sahari

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In robotics literature, the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is commonly associated with a priori-posteriori problem. The autonomous vehicle needs a neutral map to spontaneously track its local position, i.e., “localization” while at the same time a precise path estimation of the environment state is required for effective route planning and obstacle avoidance. On the other hand, the environmental noise factors can significantly intensify the inherent uncertainties in using odometry information and measurements obtained from the robot’s exteroceptive sensor which in return directly affect the overall performance of the corresponding SLAM. Therefore, the current work is primarily dedicated to provide a diagnostic analysis of six SLAM algorithms including FastSLAM, L-SLAM, GraphSLAM, Grid SLAM and DP-SLAM. A SLAM simulated environment consisting of two sets of landmark locations and robot waypoints was set based on modified EKF and UKF in MATLAB using two separate maps for indoor and outdoor route planning subject to natural and artificial obstacles. The simulation results are expected to provide an unbiased platform to compare the estimation performances of the five SLAM models as well as on the reliability of each SLAM model for indoor and outdoor applications.

Keywords: route planning, obstacle, estimation performance, FastSLAM, L-SLAM, GraphSLAM, Grid SLAM, DP-SLAM

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Authors: Roozbeh Aghamajidi

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Shaft spillways are circling spillways used generally for emptying unexpected floods on earth and concrete dams. There are different types of shaft spillways: Stepped and Smooth spillways. Stepped spillways pass more flow discharges through themselves in comparison to smooth spillways. Therefore, awareness of flow behavior of these spillways helps using them better and more efficiently. Moreover, using vortex breaker has great effect on passing flow through shaft spillway. In order to use more efficiently, the risk of flow pressure decreases to less than fluid vapor pressure, called cavitations, should be prevented as far as possible. At this research, it has been tried to study different behavior of spillway with different vortex shapes on spillway crest on flow. From the viewpoint of the effects of flow regime changes on spillway, changes of step dimensions, and the change of type of discharge will be studied effectively. Therefore, two spillway models with three different vortex breakers and three arrangements have been used to assess the hydraulic characteristics of flow. With regard to the inlet discharge to spillway, the parameters of pressure and flow velocity on spillway surface have been measured at several points and after each run. Using these kinds of information leads us to create better design criteria of spillway profile. To achieve these purposes, optimization has important role and genetic algorithm are utilized to study the emptying discharge. As a result, it turned out that the best type of spillway with maximum discharge coefficient is smooth spillway with ogee shapes as vortex breaker and 3 number as arrangement. Besides it has been concluded that the genetic algorithm can be used to optimize the results.

Keywords: shaft spillway, vortex breaker, flow, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Khaled Saad Eldin Mohamed Ragab

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This paper investigates analytically the torsion behavior of steel fibered high strength self compacting concrete beams reinforced by GFRP bars. Nonlinear finite element analysis on 12­ beams specimens was achieved by using ANSYS software. The nonlinear finite element analysis program ANSYS is utilized owing to its capabilities to predict either the response of reinforced concrete beams in the post elastic range or the ultimate strength of a reinforced concrete beams produced from steel fiber reinforced self compacting concrete (SFRSCC) and reinforced by GFRP bars. A general description of the finite element method, theoretical modeling of concrete and reinforcement are presented. In order to verify the analytical model used in this research using test results of the experimental data, the finite element analysis were performed. Then, a parametric study of the effect ratio of volume fraction of steel fibers in ordinary strength concrete, the effect ratio of volume fraction of steel fibers in high strength concrete, and the type of reinforcement of stirrups were investigated. A comparison between the experimental results and those predicted by the existing models are presented. Results and conclusions thyat may be useful for designers have been raised and represented.

Keywords: nonlinear analysis, torsionally loaded, self compacting concrete, steel fiber reinforced self compacting concrete (SFRSCC), GFRP bars and sheets

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Magda M. Madbouly, Murad B. Khorsheed

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Sign Languages (SL) are the most accomplished forms of gestural communication. Therefore, their automatic analysis is a real challenge, which is interestingly implied to their lexical and syntactic organization levels. Hidden Markov models (HMM’s) have been used prominently and successfully in speech recognition and, more recently, in handwriting recognition. Consequently, they seem ideal for visual recognition of complex, structured hand gestures such as are found in sign language. In this paper, several results concerning static hand gesture recognition using an algorithm based on Type-2 Fuzzy HMM (T2FHMM) are presented. The features used as observables in the training as well as in the recognition phases are based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). SVD is an extension of Eigen decomposition to suit non-square matrices to reduce multi attribute hand gesture data to feature vectors. SVD optimally exposes the geometric structure of a matrix. In our approach, we replace the basic HMM arithmetic operators by some adequate Type-2 fuzzy operators that permits us to relax the additive constraint of probability measures. Therefore, T2FHMMs are able to handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties existing universally in the sequential data. Experimental results show that T2FHMMs can effectively handle noise and dialect uncertainties in hand signals besides a better classification performance than the classical HMMs. The recognition rate of the proposed system is 100% for uniform hand images and 86.21% for cluttered hand images.

Keywords: hand gesture recognition, hand detection, type-2 fuzzy logic, hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Bunakiye R. Japheth, Ogude U. Cyril

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Since the process of transforming user requirements to modeling constructs are not very well supported by domain-specific frameworks, it became necessary to integrate domain requirements with the specific architectures to achieve an integrated customizable solutions space via artifact orientation. Domain-specific modeling language specifications of model-driven engineering technologies focus more on requirements within a particular domain, which can be tailored to aid the domain expert in expressing domain concepts effectively. Modeling processes through domain-specific language formalisms are highly volatile due to dependencies on domain concepts or used process models. A capable solution is given by artifact orientation that stresses on the results rather than expressing a strict dependence on complicated platforms for model creation and development. Based on this premise, domain-specific methods for producing artifacts without having to take into account the complexity and variability of platforms for model definitions can be integrated to support customizable development. In this paper, we discuss methods for the integration capabilities and necessities within a common structure and semantics that contribute a metamodel for artifact-orientation, which leads to a reusable software layer with concrete syntax capable of determining design intents from domain expert. These concepts forming the language formalism are established from models explained within the oil and gas pipelines industry.

Keywords: control process, metrics of engineering, structured abstraction, semantic model

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Authors: Sandra Baez, Mariana Pino, Mildred Berrio, Hernando Santamaria-Garcia, Lucas Sedeno, Adolfo Garcia, Sol Fittipaldi, Agustin Ibanez

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Schadenfreude refers to the perceiver’s experience of pleasure at another’s misfortune. This is a multidetermined emotion which can be evoked by hostile feelings and envy. The experience of Schadenfreude engages mechanisms implicated in diverse social cognitive processes. For instance, Schadenfreude involves heightened reward processing, accompanied by increased striatal engagement and it interacts with mentalizing and perspective-taking abilities. Patients with Huntington's disease (HD) exhibit reductions of Schadenfreude experience, suggesting a role of striatal degeneration in such an impairment. However, no study has directly assessed the relationship between regional brain atrophy in HD and reduced Schadenfreude. This study investigated whether gray matter (GM) atrophy in HD patients correlates with ratings of Schadenfreude. First, we compared the performance of 20 HD patients and 23 controls on an experimental task designed to trigger Schadenfreude and envy (another social emotion acting as a control condition). Second, we compared GM volume between groups. Third, we examined brain regions where atrophy might be associated with specific impairments in the patients. Results showed that while both groups showed similar ratings of envy, HD patients reported lower Schadenfreude. The latter pattern was related to atrophy in regions of the reward system (ventral striatum) and the mentalizing network (precuneus and superior parietal lobule). Our results shed light on the intertwining of reward and socioemotional processes in Schadenfreude, while offering novel evidence about their neural correlates. In addition, our results open the door to future studies investigating social emotion processing in other clinical populations characterized by striatal or mentalizing network impairments (e.g., Parkinson’s disease, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders).

Keywords: envy, Gray matter atrophy, Huntigton's disease, Schadenfreude, social emotions

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Authors: Ryan Tehini

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The purpose of this paper is to explore the value of practical experience with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) as a microcosm of mental disorders, in psychology students’ attempt to fully understand it in all of its intricacies. The study follows a one-year program where students of psychology volunteer at a school for Autistic children of ages 3-18. The individual levels of experience with, and theoretical understanding of, ASD varies measurably amongst the volunteers; these volunteers are then intermittently interviewed, observed and surveyed throughout the program in order to determine any decline or growth in their understanding of Autism Spectrum Disorder. A panel of professionals all of whom are active in the world of ASD (headmasters of Autistic schools, psychologists, child development specialists, special needs teachers, parents of autistic children and Occupational Therapists) were used specifically for this study, in order to develop the guideline for understanding ASD that will be used comparatively against the information gained from the volunteers in order to establish the individual results. The paper concludes by illustrating how psychology has a responsibility to the community to understand disorders past what is academic and theoretical, and how increasing student experience with a disorder can aid in a more holistic psychological approach to mental disorders in the future.

Keywords: autism, mental disorders, practical experience, psychology

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Authors: Hui Zhang, Sherif Beskhyroun

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Structural Health monitoring systems (SHM) are commonly used to identify and assess structural damage. In terms of damage detection, SHM needs to periodically collect data from sensors placed in the structure as damage-sensitive features. This includes abnormal changes caused by the strain field and abnormal symptoms of the structure, such as damage and deterioration. Currently, deploying sensors on a large scale in a building structure is a challenge. In this study, a highly stretchable strain sensors are used in this study to collect data sets of strain generated on the surface of full-size reinforced concrete (RC) frames under extreme cyclic load application. This sensing sheet can be switched freely between the test bending strain and the axial strain to achieve two different configurations. On this basis, the deep neural network prediction model of the frame beam and frame column is established. The training results show that the method can accurately predict the strain value and has good generalization ability. The two deep neural network prediction models will also be deployed in the SHM system in the future as part of the intelligent strain sensor system.

Keywords: strain sensing sheets, deep neural networks, strain measurement, SHM system, RC frames

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Authors: Yelena Agranovich, Larissa Ageyeva, Aigul Syzdykbayeva, Violetta Tyan

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The modernization of the education system in the Republic of Kazakhstan is aimed at improving the quality of teacher training and enhancing key competencies among teachers. The current professional standard ‘Teacher’ defines the general characteristics of teachers’ activities, key competencies, and criteria according to relevant qualification categories structured on the principle of progression, thereby enabling Continuous Professional Development (CPD). The essence of CPD lies in the constant integration of new knowledge and skills that help teachers adapt to changes in the education system, in technologies, and teaching methods. This developmental process enables teachers to stay updated on recent scientific achievements, innovations, and modern pedagogical practices. Continuous learning helps teachers remain flexible and open to new developments, creating conditions for improving educational quality and fostering students' personal growth. This study aims to address the following objectives: analysis of international CPD practices, identification of conceptual foundations, and investigation of CPD implementation mechanisms in Kazakhstan. The core principles of CPD are identified as longitudinality, systematicity, and fragmentation. CPD implementation is based on various theoretical approaches: axiological, systemic, competency-based, activity-based, and learner-centered. The study analyzes leading models of teacher CPD, with a target sample that includes countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, England, Singapore, Sweden, Finland, and Kazakhstan. The research methods include analysis (comparative, historical, content analysis, systematic), case studies of CPD models, and synthesis and systematization of scientific data. As research results, the mechanisms for CPD implementation in Kazakhstan will be identified, along with further perspectives on transforming resources within the teacher professional development system. In comparing CPD models from various countries, it is noted that teacher CPD in the Republic of Kazakhstan: (1) is implemented through educational programs, professional development courses, teacher certification, professional networks, in-school professional development, self-education, and self-assessment; (2) includes the development of pedagogical values and competencies (tolerance, inclusivity, communication, critical thinking, creativity, reflection, etc.); (3) is carried out based on traditional forms (professional development courses, retraining) and informal forms (self-learning, self-development, experience sharing and exchange). Further research will focus on creating a digital ecosystem for teacher CPD, based on an educational platform that facilitates individualized professional development pathways for teachers (competency diagnostics, course selection, and a methodological system of course and post-course support for teachers).

Keywords: continuous professional development, CPD models, professional development, professional upgrading, teacher, teacher training

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Authors: Bruce G. Wilson

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The collection of municipal solid waste at the curbside is a complex operation that is repeated daily under varying circumstances around the world. There have been several attempts to develop Monte Carlo simulation models of the waste collection process dating back almost 50 years. Despite this long history, the use of simulation modeling as a planning or optimization tool for waste collection is still extremely limited in practice. Historically, simulation modeling of waste collection systems has been hampered by the limitations of computer hardware and software and by the availability of representative input data. This paper outlines the development of a Monte Carlo simulation model that overcomes many of the limitations contained in previous models. The model uses a general purpose simulation software program that is easily capable of modeling an entire waste collection network. The model treats the stops on a waste collection route as a queue of work to be processed by a collection vehicle (or server). Input data can be collected from a variety of sources including municipal geographic information systems, global positioning system recorders on collection vehicles, and weigh scales at transfer stations or treatment facilities. The result is a flexible model that is sufficiently robust that it can model the collection activities in a large municipality, while providing the flexibility to adapt to changing conditions on the collection route.

Keywords: modeling, queues, residential waste collection, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: K. Sridhar Reddy, M. Amaranatha Reddy, Nilanjan Mitra

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Short paneled concrete pavement (SPCP) with shorter panel size can be an alternative to the conventional jointed plain concrete pavements (JPCP) at the same cost as the asphalt pavements with all the advantages of concrete pavement with reduced thickness, less chance of mid-slab cracking and or dowel bar locking so common in JPCP. Cast-in-situ short concrete panels (short slabs) laid on a strong foundation consisting of a dry lean concrete base (DLC), and cement treated subbase (CTSB) will reduce the thickness of the concrete slab to the order of 180 mm to 220 mm, whereas JPCP was with 280 mm for the same traffic. During the construction of SPCP test sections on two Indian National Highways (NH), it was observed that the joints remain uncracked after a year of traffic. The undoweled and uncracked joints load transfer variability and joint behavior are of interest with anticipation on its long-term performance of the SPCP. To investigate the effects of undoweled and uncracked joints on short slabs, the present study was conducted. A multilayer linear elastic analysis using 3D finite element package for different panel sizes with different thicknesses resting on different types of solid elastic foundation with and without temperature gradient was developed. Surface deflections were obtained from 3D FE model and validated with measured field deflections from falling weight deflectometer (FWD) test. Stress analysis indicates that flexural stresses in short slabs are decreased with a decrease in panel size and increase in thickness. Detailed evaluation of stress analysis with the effects of curling behavior, the stiffness of the base layer and a variable degree of load transfer, is underway.

Keywords: joint behavior, short slabs, uncracked joints, undoweled joints, 3D numerical simulation

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Authors: Sebastiano Candamano, Antonio Iorfida, Patrizia Frontera, Anastasia Macario, Fortunato Crea

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Alkali-activated materials are promising binders obtained by an alkaline attack on fly-ashes, metakaolin, blast slag among others. In order to guarantee the highest ecological and cost efficiency, a proper selection of precursors and alkaline activators has to be carried out. These choices deeply affect the microstructure, chemistry and performances of this class of materials. Even if, in the last years, several researches have been focused on mix designs and curing conditions, the lack of exhaustive activation models, standardized mix design and curing conditions and an insufficient investigation on shrinkage behavior, efflorescence, additives and durability prevent them from being perceived as an effective and reliable alternative to Portland. The aim of this study is to develop alkali-activated cements mortars containing high amounts of industrial by-products and waste, such as ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS) and ashes obtained from the combustion process of forest biomass in thermal power plants. In particular, the experimental campaign was performed in two steps. In the first step, research was focused on elucidating how the workability, mechanical properties and shrinkage behavior of produced mortars are affected by the type and fraction of each precursor as well as by the composition of the activator solutions. In order to investigate the microstructures and reaction products, SEM and diffractometric analyses have been carried out. In the second step, their durability in harsh environments has been evaluated. Mortars obtained using only GGBFS as binder showed mechanical properties development and shrinkage behavior strictly dependent on SiO2/Na2O molar ratio of the activator solutions. Compressive strengths were in the range of 40-60 MPa after 28 days of curing at ambient temperature. Mortars obtained by partial replacement of GGBFS with metakaolin and forest biomass ash showed lower compressive strengths (≈35 MPa) and shrinkage values when higher amount of ashes were used. By varying the activator solutions and binder composition, compressive strength up to 70 MPa associated with shrinkage values of about 4200 microstrains were measured. Durability tests were conducted to assess the acid and thermal resistance of the different mortars. They all showed good resistance in a solution of 5%wt of H2SO4 also after 60 days of immersion, while they showed a decrease of mechanical properties in the range of 60-90% when exposed to thermal cycles up to 700°C.

Keywords: alkali activated cement, biomass ash, durability, shrinkage, slag

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