Search results for: background noise statistical modeling

Authors: Hitham Yami

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This study will focus primarily on assessing the availability requirements of the electronic management of oil companies in Libya, and the mean objectives of the research applying electronic management and make recommendations and steps to approach electronic management. There are limited research and statistical analysis to support electronic management in Libyan companies. The groundwork for the proposed approach is to develop independent variables and the dependent variables to be restructured after it Alntra side of the field and the side to get the data to achieve the desired results and solving the problem faced by the Libyan Oil Corporation. All these strategies are proposed to achieve the goal, and solving Libyan oil installations.

Keywords: oil company’s revenue, independent variables, electronic management, Libyan oil corporation

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Authors: H. Scholz, P. Kuehne, G. Heckenberger

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Dietary Anion-Cation Balance (DCAB) in grazing systems under German conditions has a tendency to decrease from May until September and often are measured DCAB lower than 100 meq per kg dry matter. Lower DCAB in grass feeding system can change the metabolic status of suckler cows and often are results in acidotic metabolism. Measurement of acid-base excretion in dairy cows has been proved to a method to evaluate the acid-base status. The hypothesis was that metabolic imbalances could be identified by urine measurement in suckler cows. The farm study was conducted during the grazing seasons 2017 and 2018 and involved 7 suckler cow farms in Germany. Suckler cows were grazing during the whole time of the investigation and had no access to other feeding components. Cows had free access to water and salt block and free access to minerals (loose). The dry matter of the grass was determined at 60 °C and were then analysed for energy and nutrient content and for the Dietary Cation-Anion Balance (DCAB). Urine was collected in 50 ml-glasses and analysed for net acid-base excretion (NSBA) and the concentration of creatinine and urea in the laboratory. Statistical analysis took place with ANOVA with fixed effects of farms (1-7), month (May until September), and number of lactations (1, 2, and ≥ 3 lactations) using SPSS Version 25.0 for windows. An alpha of 0.05 was used for all statistical tests. During the grazing periods of years 2017 and 2018, an average DCAB was observed in the grass of 167 meq per kg DM. A very high mean variation could be determined from -42 meq/kg to +439 meq/kg. Reference values in relation to DCAB were described between 150 meq and 400 meq per kg DM. It was found the high chlorine content with reduced potassium level led to this reduction in DCAB at the end of the grazing period. Between the DCAB of the grass and the NSBA in urine of suckler cows was a correlation according to PEARSON of r = 0.478 (p ≤ 0.001) or after SPEARMAN of r = 0.601 (p ≤ 0.001) observed. For the control of urine values of grazing suckler cows, the wide spread of the values poses a challenge of the interpretation, especially since the DCAB is unknown. The influence of several feeding components such as chlorine, sulfur, potassium, and sodium (ions for the DCAB) and dry matter feed intake during the grazing period of suckler cows should be taken into account in further research. The results obtained show that up a decrease in the DCAB is related to a decrease in NSBA in urine of suckler cows. Monitoring of metabolic disturbances should include analysis of urine, blood, milk, and ruminal fluid.

Keywords: dietary anion-cation balance, DCAB, net acid-base excretion, NSBA, suckler cow, grazing period

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Authors: Ogan Karabas, Suleyman Yigit

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Number of blade and blade type of centrifugal fans are the most decisive factor on the field of application, noise level, suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate. Nowadays, in order to determine these effects on centrifugal fans, numerical studies are carried out in addition to experimental studies. In this study, it is aimed to numerically investigate the changes of suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate values of a centrifugal fan according to the number of blade and blade type. Centrifugal fans of the same size with forward, backward and straight blade type were analyzed by using a simulation program and compared with each other. This analysis was carried out under steady state condition by selecting k-Ɛ turbulence model and air is assumed incompressible. Then, 16, 32 and 48 blade centrifugal fans were again analyzed by using same simulation program, and the optimum number of blades was determined for the suction pressure and the outlet mass flow rate. According to the results of the analysis, it was obtained that the suction pressure in the 32 blade fan was twice the value obtained in the 16 blade fan. In addition, the outlet mass flow rate increased by 45% with the increase in the number of blade from 16 to 32. There is no significant change observed on the suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate when the number of blades increased from 32 to 48. In the light of the analysis results, the optimum blade number was determined as 32.

Keywords: blade type, centrifugal fan, cfd, outlet mass flow rate, suction pressure

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Authors: Ahmed Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ali Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ahmed Al-Shafie

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In this study, genetic programming (GP) technique has been investigated in prediction of set of rainfall-runoff data. To assess the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Correlation Coefficient (CC), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Correlation of Efficiency (CE). The principle aim of this study is to develop a computationally efficient and robust approach for predict of rainfall-runoff which could reduce the cost and labour for measuring these parameters. This research concentrates on the Johor River in Johor State, Malaysia.

Keywords: genetic programming, prediction, rainfall-runoff, Malaysia

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Authors: N. Li, Y. M. Cheng

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In this paper, the classical bearing capacity problem is re-considered from discrete element analysis. In the discrete element approach, the bearing capacity problem is considered from the elastic stage to plastic stage to rupture stage (large displacement). The bearing capacity failure mechanism of a strip footing on soil is investigated, and the influence of micro-parameters on the bearing capacity of soil is also observed. It is found that the distinct element method (DEM) gives very good visualized results, and basically coincides well with that derived by the classical methods.

Keywords: bearing capacity, distinct element method, failure mechanism, large displacement

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Authors: Atsuko Okazaki, Jurg Ott

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Some genetic diseases (‘digenic traits’) are due to the interaction between two DNA variants. For example, certain forms of Retinitis Pigmentosa (a genetic form of blindness) occur in the presence of two mutant variants, one in the ROM1 gene and one in the RDS gene, while the occurrence of only one of these mutant variants leads to a completely normal phenotype. Detecting such digenic traits by genetic methods is difficult. A common approach to finding disease-causing variants is to compare 100,000s of variants between individuals with a trait (cases) and those without the trait (controls). Such genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been very successful but hinge on genetic effects of single variants, that is, there should be a difference in allele or genotype frequencies between cases and controls at a disease-causing variant. Frequent pattern mining (FPM) methods offer an avenue at detecting digenic traits even in the absence of single-variant effects. The idea is to enumerate pairs of genotypes (genotype patterns) with each of the two genotypes originating from different variants that may be located at very different genomic positions. What is needed is for genotype patterns to be significantly more common in cases than in controls. Let Y = 2 refer to cases and Y = 1 to controls, with X denoting a specific genotype pattern. We are seeking association rules, ‘X → Y’, with high confidence, P(Y = 2|X), significantly higher than the proportion of cases, P(Y = 2) in the study. Clearly, generally available FPM methods are very suitable for detecting disease-associated genotype patterns. We use fpgrowth as the basic FPM algorithm and built a framework around it to enumerate high-frequency digenic genotype patterns and to evaluate their statistical significance by permutation analysis. Application to a published dataset on opioid dependence furnished results that could not be found with classical GWAS methodology. There were 143 cases and 153 healthy controls, each genotyped for 82 variants in eight genes of the opioid system. The aim was to find out whether any of these variants were disease-associated. The single-variant analysis did not lead to significant results. Application of our FPM implementation resulted in one significant (p < 0.01) genotype pattern with both genotypes in the pattern being heterozygous and originating from two variants on different chromosomes. This pattern occurred in 14 cases and none of the controls. Thus, the pattern seems quite specific to this form of substance abuse and is also rather predictive of disease. An algorithm called Multifactor Dimension Reduction (MDR) was developed some 20 years ago and has been in use in human genetics ever since. This and our algorithms share some similar properties, but they are also very different in other respects. The main difference seems to be that our algorithm focuses on patterns of genotypes while the main object of inference in MDR is the 3 × 3 table of genotypes at two variants.

Keywords: digenic traits, DNA variants, epistasis, statistical genetics

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Authors: Tertia Delia Nova, Masaji Watanabge

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Infection of bird flu within a poultry farm involves hosts, virus, and medium. Intrusion of bird flu into a poultry farm divides the population into two groups; healthy and susceptible chickens and infected chickens. A healthy and susceptible bird is infected to become an infected bird. Bird flu viruses spread among chickens through medium such as air and droppings, and increase in hosts. A model for an infection process of bird flu within a poultry farm is described, numerical techniques are illustrated, and numerical results are introduced.

Keywords: bird flu, poultry farm, model for an infection process, flu viruses

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Authors: Milos Travar, Jovana Nikolov, Andrej Vranicar, Natasa Todorovic

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Over the years, High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors proved to be an excellent practical tool and, as such, have established their today's wide use in low background γ-spectrometry. One of the advantages of gamma-ray spectrometry is its easy sample preparation as chemical processing and separation of the studied subject are not required. Thus, with a single measurement, one can simultaneously perform both qualitative and quantitative analysis. One of the most prominent features of HPGe detectors, besides their excellent efficiency, is their superior resolution. This feature virtually allows a researcher to perform a thorough analysis by discriminating photons of similar energies in the studied spectra where otherwise they would superimpose within a single-energy peak and, as such, could potentially scathe analysis and produce wrongly assessed results. Naturally, this feature is of great importance when the identification of radionuclides, as well as their activity concentrations, is being practiced where high precision comes as a necessity. In measurements of this nature, in order to be able to reproduce good and trustworthy results, one has to have initially performed an adequate full-energy peak (FEP) efficiency calibration of the used equipment. However, experimental determination of the response, i.e., efficiency curves for a given detector-sample configuration and its geometry, is not always easy and requires a certain set of reference calibration sources in order to account for and cover broader energy ranges of interest. With the goal of overcoming these difficulties, a lot of researches turned towards the application of different software toolkits that implement the Monte Carlo method (e.g., MCNP, FLUKA, PENELOPE, Geant4, etc.), as it has proven time and time again to be a very powerful tool. In the process of creating a reliable model, one has to have well-established and described specifications of the detector. Unfortunately, the documentation that manufacturers provide alongside the equipment is rarely sufficient enough for this purpose. Furthermore, certain parameters tend to evolve and change over time, especially with older equipment. Deterioration of these parameters consequently decreases the active volume of the crystal and can thus affect the efficiencies by a large margin if they are not properly taken into account. In this study, the optimisation method of two HPGe detectors through the implementation of the Geant4 toolkit developed by CERN is described, with the goal of further improving simulation accuracy in calculations of FEP efficiencies by investigating the influence of certain detector variables (e.g., crystal-to-window distance, dead layer thicknesses, inner crystal’s void dimensions, etc.). Detectors on which the optimisation procedures were carried out were a standard traditional co-axial extended range detector (XtRa HPGe, CANBERRA) and a broad energy range planar detector (BEGe, CANBERRA). Optimised models were verified through comparison with experimentally obtained data from measurements of a set of point-like radioactive sources. Acquired results of both detectors displayed good agreement with experimental data that falls under an average statistical uncertainty of ∼ 4.6% for XtRa and ∼ 1.8% for BEGe detector within the energy range of 59.4−1836.1 [keV] and 59.4−1212.9 [keV], respectively.

Keywords: HPGe detector, γ spectrometry, efficiency, Geant4 simulation, Monte Carlo method

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Authors: Sarkawt M. Hama, Paul S. Monks, Rebecca L. Cordell

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Within the Joaquin project, ultrafine particles (UFP) are continuously measured at one urban background site in Leicester. The main aims are to examine the temporal and seasonal variations in UFP number concentration and size distribution in an urban environment, and to try to assess the added value of continuous UFP measurements. In addition, relations of UFP with more commonly monitored pollutants such as black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM2.5), and the lung deposited surface area(LDSA) were evaluated. The effects of meteorological conditions, particularly wind speed and direction, and also temperature on the observed distribution of ultrafine particles will be detailed. The study presents the results from an experimental investigation into the particle number concentration size distribution of UFP, BC, and NOX with measurements taken at the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) monitoring site in Leicester. The monitoring was performed as part of the EU project JOAQUIN (Joint Air Quality Initiative) supported by the INTERREG IVB NWE program. The total number concentrations (TNC) were measured by a water-based condensation particle counter (W-CPC) (TSI model 3783), the particle number concentrations (PNC) and size distributions were measured by an ultrafine particle monitor (UFP TSI model 3031), the BC by MAAP (Thermo-5012), the NOX by NO-NO2-NOx monitor (Thermos Scientific 42i), and a Nanoparticle Surface Area Monitor (NSAM, TSI 3550) was used to measure the LDSA (reported as μm2 cm−3) corresponding to the alveolar region of the lung between November 2013 and November 2015. The average concentrations of particle number concentrations were observed in summer with lower absolute values of PNC than in winter might be related mainly to particles directly emitted by traffic and to the more favorable conditions of atmospheric dispersion. Results showed a traffic-related diurnal variation of UFP, BC, NOX and LDSA with clear morning and evening rush hour peaks on weekdays, only an evening peak at the weekends. Correlation coefficients were calculated between UFP and other pollutants (BC and NOX). The highest correlation between them was found in winter months. Overall, the results support the notion that local traffic emissions were a major contributor of the atmospheric particles pollution and a clear seasonal pattern was found, with higher values during the cold season.

Keywords: size distribution, traffic emissions, UFP, urban area

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: Sanaa I. Abu Alasal, Madleen M. Esbeih, Eman R. Fayyad, Rami S. Gharaibeh, Mostafa Z. Ali, Ahmed A. Freewan, Monther M. Jamhawi

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This research proposes a novel reconstruction protocol for restoring missing surfaces and low-quality edges and shapes in photos of artifacts at historical sites. The protocol starts with the extraction of a cloud of points. This extraction process is based on four subordinate algorithms, which differ in the robustness and amount of resultant. Moreover, they use different -but complementary- accuracy to some related features and to the way they build a quality mesh. The performance of our proposed protocol is compared with other state-of-the-art algorithms and toolkits. The statistical analysis shows that our algorithm significantly outperforms its rivals in the resultant quality of its object files used to reconstruct the desired model.

Keywords: meshes, point clouds, surface reconstruction protocols, 3D reconstruction

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Authors: Joao Ferreira Do Rosario, Nuno Gustavo, Ana Machado, Lurdes Calisto, Luisa Carvalho, Georgette Andraz

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Currently, tourism small and medium enterprises (TSMEs) face serious economic and financial problems, making recovery efforts difficult. How the pandemic will affect tourists' behavior is still to be known. Will tourists be even more cautious regarding their choices or, on the contrary, will they be more adventurers with an enormous desire to travel in search of the lost freedom? Tourists may become even more demanding when traveling, more austere, or less concerned and eager to socialize. Adjusting to this "new tourist" is an added challenge for tourism service providers. Generation Z made up of individuals born in 1995 and following years, currently tends to assume a particular role and meaning in the present and future economic and social context, considering that we are facing the youngest workforce as well as tomorrow's consumers. This generation is distinguished from others as it is the first generation to combine a high level of education and technological knowledge and to fully experience the digital world. These young people are framed by a new value system that can explain new behaviours and consumption, namely, in the context of tourism. All these considerations point to the importance of investigating this target group as it is essential to understand how these individuals perceive, understand, act, and can be involved in a new environment built around a society regulated by new priorities and challenges of a sustainable nature. This leads not only to a focus on short-term market choices but mainly to predict future choices from a longer-term perspective. Together with the social background of a person, values are considered a stable antecedent of behavior and might therefore predict not just immediate, but also future choices. Furthermore, the meaning attributed to travel has a general connotation and goes beyond a specific travel choice or experience. In other words, values and travel's meaning form a chain of influences on the present and future travel behavior. This study explores the social background and values of Generation Z travelers vs the meaning these tourists give to travel. The aim is to discover in their present behavior cues to predict travel choices so that the future of tourism can be secured. This study also provides data for predicting the tourism choices of youngsters in the more immediate future. Methodologically, a quantitative approach was adopted based on the collection of data through a survey. Since academic research on Generation Z of tourists is still scarce, it is expected to contribute to deepening scientific knowledge in this area. Furthermore, it is expected that this research will support tourism professionals in defining differentiated marketing strategies and adapted to the requirements of this target, in a new time.

Keywords: Generation Z, travel behavior, travel meaning, Generation Z Values

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Authors: Saradiya Mukherjee

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Background: Indian Muslims, compared to their counterparts in other religions, generally do not fare well on many yardsticks related to socio-economic progress and the same is true with maternal health care utilization. Due to low age at marriage a major percentage of child birth is ascribed to young (15-24 years) Muslim mothers in, which pose serious concerns on the maternal health care of Young Married Muslim women (YMMW). A thorough search of past literature on Muslim women’s health and health care reveals that studies in India have mainly focused on religious differences in fertility levels and contraceptive use while the research on the determinants of maternal health care utilization among Muslim women are lacking in India. Data and Methods: Retrieving data from the National Family Health Survey -3 (2005-06) this study attempts to assess the level of utilization and factors effecting three key maternal health indicators (full ANC, safe delivery and PNC) among YMMW (15-24 years) in India. The key socio-economic and demographic variables taken as independent or predictor variables in the study was guided by existing literature particularly for India. Bi-variate analysis and chi square test was applied and variables which were found to be significant were further included in binary logistic regression. Results: The findings of the study reveal abysmally low levels of utilization for all three indicators i.e. full ANC, safe delivery and PNC of maternal health care included in the study. Mother’s education, mass media exposure, women’s autonomy, birth order, economic status wanted status of child and region of residence were found to be significant variables effecting maternal health care utilization among YMMW. Multivariate analysis reveals that no mass media exposure, lower autonomy, education, poor economic background, higher birth order and unintended pregnancy are some of the reasons behind low maternal health care utilization. Conclusion: Considering the low level of safe maternal health care utilization and its proximate determinants among YMMW the study suggests educating Muslim girls, promoting family planning use, involving media and collaboration between religious leader and health care system could be some important policy level interventions to address the unmet need of maternity services among YMMW.

Keywords: young Muslim women, religion, socio-economic condition, antenatal care, delivery, post natal care

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Authors: M. Bagavandas

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Introduction: South Indian stone sculptures are known for their elegance and history. They are available in large numbers in different monuments situated different parts of South India. These art pieces have been studied using iconography details, but this pioneering study introduces a novel method known as iconometry which is a quantitative study that deals with measurements of different parts of icons to find answers for important unanswered questions. The main aim of this paper is to compare iconometric measurements of the sculptures with canonical proportion to determine whether the sculptors of the past had followed any of the canonical proportions prescribed in the ancient text. If not, this study recovers the proportions used for carving sculptures which is not available to us now. Also, it will be interesting to see how these sculptural proportions of different monuments belonging to different dynasties differ from one another in terms these proportions. Methods and Materials: As Indian sculptures are depicted in different postures, one way of making measurements independent of size, is to decode on a suitable measurement and convert the other measurements as proportions with respect to the chosen measurement. Since in all canonical texts of Indian art, all different measurements are given in terms of face length, it is chosen as the required measurement for standardizing the measurements. In order to compare these facial measurements with measurements prescribed in Indian canons of Iconography, the ten facial measurements like face length, morphological face length, nose length, nose-to-chin length, eye length, lip length, face breadth, nose breadth, eye breadth and lip breadth were standardized using the face length and the number of measurements reduced to nine. Each measurement was divided by the corresponding face length and multiplied by twelve and given in angula unit used in the canonical texts. The reason for multiplying by twelve is that the face length is given as twelve angulas in the canonical texts for all figures. Clustering techniques were used to determine whether the sculptors of the past had followed any of the proportions prescribed in the canonical texts of the past to carve sculptures and also to compare the proportions of sculptures of different monuments. About one hundred twenty-seven stone sculptures from four monuments belonging to the Pallava, the Chola, the Pandya and the Vijayanagar dynasties were taken up for this study. These art pieces belong to a period ranging from the eighth to the sixteenth century A.D. and all of them adorning different monuments situated in different parts of Tamil Nadu State, South India. Anthropometric instruments were used for taking measurements and the author himself had measured all the sample pieces of this study. Result: Statistical analysis of sculptures of different centers of art from different dynasties shows a considerable difference in facial proportions and many of these proportions differ widely from the canonical proportions. The retrieved different facial proportions indicate that the definition of beauty has been changing from period to period and region to region.

Keywords: iconometry, proportions, sculptures, statistics

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Authors: Evln Ranga Charyulu, S. P. Venu Madhavarao, S. Udaya kumar, S. V. S. S. N. V. G. Krishna Murthy

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With the advent of new nanometer process technologies, it is possible to integrate billion transistors on a single substrate. When more and more functionality included there is the possibility of multi-million transistors switching simultaneously consuming more power and dissipating more power along with more leakage of current into the substrate of porous silicon or germanium material. These results in substrate heating and thermal noise generation coupled to signals of interest. The heating process is represented by coupled nonlinear partial differential equations in porous silicon and germanium. By identifying heat sources and heat fluxes may results in designing of ultra-low power circuits. The PDEs are solved by finite difference scheme assuming that boundary layer equations in porous silicon and germanium. Local heat fluxes along the vertical isothermal surface immersed in porous SI/Ge are considered. The parameters considered for optimization are thermal diffusivity, thermal expansion coefficient, thermal diffusion ratio, permeability, specific heat at constant temperatures, Rayleigh number, amplitude of wavy surface, mass expansion coefficient. The diffusion of heat was caused by the concentration gradient. Thermal physical properties are homogeneous and isotropic. By using L8, TAGUCHI method the parameters are optimized.

Keywords: heat transfer, pde, taguchi optimization, SI/Ge

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Authors: Mehrzad Mohabbi Yadollahi, Ramazan Demirboğa, Majid Atashafrazeh

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Geopolymers are highly complex materials which involve many variables which makes modeling its properties very difficult. There is no systematic approach in mix design for Geopolymers. Since the amounts of silica modulus, Na2O content, w/b ratios and curing time have a great influence on the compressive strength an ANFIS (Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) method has been established for predicting compressive strength of ground pumice based Geopolymers and the possibilities of ANFIS for predicting the compressive strength has been studied. Consequently, ANFIS can be used for geopolymer compressive strength prediction with acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: geopolymer, ANFIS, compressive strength, mix design

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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This study investigated the attention problems with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). Two thousand eight hundred and ninety-four adolescents were surveyed by using a stratified sampling method. We examined the relationships between relevant background variables and attention problems. Multiple regression models were applied to analyze the data. Relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, age, grade and the number of close friends were included in this study as predictive variables. The analysis results indicated that educational environments and extracurricular activities are important factors which influence students’ attention problems.

Keywords: adolescents, ASEBA, attention problems, educational environments, stratified sampling

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This study aims to analyze the economic impacts of infrastructure investment in Africa, focusing on the Guinea-Bissau economy. Through a dynamic CGE model, we find that the natural resource revenues (or aid)-funded infrastructure investments generate externalities that increase factor returns. The private investment improvements propagate externalities effects on GDP and job opportunities outcomes. Household income and consumption were positively impacted, though the poorer benefited the most. The income inequality has reduced. However, funding by the mix of debt and direct taxes produces opposite effects. We suggest a potential pro-poor growth agenda in Africa.

Keywords: infrastructure investment, poverty alleviation, CGE modeling, African economies, applied economics

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Authors: Tesfay Mekonnen Weldegerima

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Analysis of precipitation time series is a fundamental undertaking in meteorology and hydrology. The extreme precipitation scenario of the Kulfo River watershed is studied using wavelet analysis and atmospheric transport, a lagrangian trajectory model. Daily rainfall data for the 1991-2020 study periods are collected from the office of the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. Meteorological fields on a three-dimensional grid at 0.5o x 0.5o spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution are also obtained from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Wavelet analysis of the daily precipitation processed with the lag-1 coefficient reveals some high power recurred once every 38 to 60 days with greater than 95% confidence for red noise. The analysis also identified inter-annual periodicity in the periods 2002 - 2005 and 2017 - 2019. Back trajectory analysis for 3-day periods up to May 19/2011, indicates the Indian Ocean source; trajectories crossed the eastern African escarpment to arrive at the Kulfo watershed. Atmospheric flows associated with the Western Indian monsoon redirected by the low-level Somali winds and Arabian ridge are responsible for the moisture supply. The time-localization of the wavelet power spectrum yields valuable hydrological information, and the back trajectory approaches provide useful characterization of air mass source.

Keywords: extreme precipitation events, power spectrum, back trajectory, kulfo watershed

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Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

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Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

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Authors: Marinko Skare, Malgorzata Porada Rochon

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This paper study the link between energy justice and economic growth. The link between energy justice and growth has not been extensively studied. Here we study the impact and importance of energy justice, as a part of the energy transition process, on economic growth. Our study shows energy justice growth is an important determinant of economic growth and development that should be addressed at the industry and economic levels. We use panel data modeling and causality testing to research the empirical link between energy justice and economic growth. Industry and economy-level policies designed to support energy justice initiatives are beneficial to economic growth. Energy justice is a necessary condition for green growth and sustainability targets.

Keywords: energy justice, economic growth, panel data, energy transition

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Authors: Abubakar Ibrahim Usman, Mustapha Halilu

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The provisions of rights to women in Islam have generated and are creating a tense and serious debate among Muslims and non-Muslims alike. The Muslims are arguing that Islam provides right to Womenfolk, but their actions, cultural/traditional practices, and treatment reveal otherwise, Non-Muslims, on the other hand, held a different view, saying that Islam has never made such provision. One may not blame their misconception, due to the wide spectrum of treatment given to women in many Muslim societies, which generated, fueled and geared the misconceptions and ceaseless barrage of sensational articles, movies and negative portrayal of Islam today. It has to put in our minds, many actions and Crimes of some Muslims (Who are mostly minority) did not represent the teachings and precepts of Islam, just like one cannot put blame on the parents of a child whose actions fall short of his home background.

Keywords: Islam, women rights, cultural practices, religion

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Authors: Chelsea-Anne Edwards, Paul Parker

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Flight school members are facing a major disruption in the technologies available for them to fly as electric planes enter the aviation industry. The year 2020 marked a new era in aviation with the first type certification of an electric plane. The Pipistrel Velis Electro is a two-seat electric aircraft (e-plane) designed for flight training. Electric flight training has the potential to deeply reduce emissions, noise, and cost of pilot training. Though these are all attractive features, understanding must be developed on the perceptions of the essential actor of the technology, the pilot. This study asks student pilots, flight instructors, flight center managers, and other members of flight schools about their perceptions of e-planes. The questions were divided into three categories: safety and trust of the technology, expected costs in comparison to conventional planes, and interest in the technology, including their desire to fly electric planes. Participants were recruited from flight schools using a protocol approved by the Office of Research Ethics. None of these flight schools have an e-plane in their fleet so these views are based on perceptions rather than direct experience. The results revealed perceptions that were strongly positive with many qualitative comments indicating great excitement about the potential of the new electric aviation technology. Some concerns were raised regarding battery endurance limits. Overall, the flight school community is clearly in favor of introducing electric propulsion technology and reducing the environmental impacts of their industry.

Keywords: electric planes, flight training, green aircraft, student pilots, sustainable aviation

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Authors: Aries Nawel, Bentarzi Mohamed

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This paper deals with the study of some probabilistic and statistical properties of a Periodic Integer-Valued Moving Average Model (PINMA_{S}(q)). The closed forms of the mean, the second moment and the periodic autocovariance function are obtained. Furthermore, the time reversibility of the model is discussed in details. Moreover, the estimation of the underlying parameters are obtained by the Yule-Walker method, the Conditional Least Square method (CLS) and the Weighted Conditional Least Square method (WCLS). A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the estimation method. Moreover, an application on real data set is provided.

Keywords: periodic integer-valued moving average, periodically correlated process, time reversibility, count data

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Authors: Nop Sopipan

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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

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Authors: Soroush Pakniyat-Jahromi, Jessica Bucciarelli, Souparno Mitra, Neda Motamedi, Ralph Amazan, Samuel Rothman, Jose Tiburcio, Douglas Reich, Vicente Liz

Abstract:

Violence is defined as an act of physical force that is intended to cause harm and may lead to physical and/or psychological damage. Violence toward healthcare workers (HCWs) is more common in psychiatric settings, emergency departments, and nursing homes; however, healthcare workers in medical setting are not spared from such events. Workplace violence has a huge burden in the healthcare industry and has a major impact on the physical and mental wellbeing of staff. The purpose of this study is to compare the prevalence of patient agitation and violence in medical-surgical settings in BronxCare Hospital (BCH) Bronx, New York, one year before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data collection occurred between June 2021 and August 2021, while the sampling time was from 2019 to 2021. The data were separated into two separate time categories: pre-COVID-19 (03/2019-03/2020) and COVID-19 (03/2020-03/2021). We created frequency tables for 19 variables. We used a chi-square test to determine a variable's statistical significance. We tested all variables against “restraint type”, determining if a patient was violent or became violent enough to restrain. The restraint types were “chemical”, “physical”, or both. This analysis was also used to determine if there was a statistical difference between the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 timeframes. Our data shows that there was an increase in incidents of violence in COVID-19 era (03/2020-03/2021), with total of 194 (62.8%) reported events, compared to pre COVID-19 era (03/2019-03/2020) with 115 (37.2%) events (p: 0.01). Our final analysis, completed using a chi-square test, determined the difference in violence in patients between pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era. We then tested the violence marker against restraint type. The result was statistically significant (p: 0.01). This is the first paper to systematically review the prevalence of violence in medical-surgical units in a hospital in New York, pre COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 era. Our data is in line with the global trend of increased prevalence of patient agitation and violence in medical settings during the COVID-19 pandemic. Violence and its management is a challenge in healthcare settings, and the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to bear a complexity of circumstances, which may have increased its incidence. It is important to identify and teach healthcare workers the best preventive approaches in dealing with patient agitation, to decrease the number of restraints in medical settings, and to create a less restrictive environment to deliver care.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, patient agitation, restraints, violence

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Agarana Michael C., Akinlabi Esther T., Pule Kholopane

Abstract:

Innovation in manufacturing process technologies and associated product design affects the prospects for manufacturing today and in near future. In this study some theoretical methods, useful as tools in advanced manufacturing, are considered. In particular, some basic Mathematical, Operational Research, Heuristic, and Statistical techniques are discussed. These techniques/methods are very handy in many areas of advanced manufacturing processes, including process planning optimization, modelling and analysis. Generally the production rate requires the application of Mathematical methods. The Emerging Trends Processes in Advanced Manufacturing can be enhanced by using Mathematical Modelling and Optimization techniques.

Keywords: mathematical modelling, optimization, emerging trends, advanced manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

Abstract:

pscmsForecasting is an open-source web service that implements a variety of time series forecasting algorithms and exposes them to the user via the ubiquitous HTTP protocol. It allows developers to enhance their applications by adding time series forecasting functionalities through an intuitive and easy-to-use interface. This paper provides some background on time series forecasting and gives details about the implemented algorithms, aiming to enhance the end user’s understanding of the underlying methods before incorporating them into their applications. A detailed description of the web service’s interface and its various parameterizations is also provided. Being an open-source project, pcsmsForecasting can also be easily modified and tailored to the specific needs of each application.

Keywords: time series, forecasting, web service, open source

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Eldah Ephraim Buba, Sanusi Abubakar Sadiq

Abstract:

Habitat can be degraded by tourism leisure activities for example wildlife viewing can bring abrupt stress for animals and alter their natural behaviors when tourist come too close and wildlife watching have degradation effects on the habitats as they often are accompanied by the noise and commotion created by tourist as they chase wild animals. It is observed that Jos Wild Life Park is usually congested during on-peak periods which causes littering and contamination of the environment by tourist which may lead to changes in the soil nutrient. The issue of unauthorized feeding of animals by a tourist in which the food might be dangerous and harmful to their health and making them be so aggressive is also observed. The aim of the study is to investigate the environmental impact of tourists’ activities in Jos Wild Life Park, Nigeria. The study used survey questionnaires to both tourists and the staff of the wildlife park. One hundred questionnaires were self-administered to randomly selected tourists as the visit the park and some staff. The average mean score of the response was used to show agreement or disagreement. Major findings show the negative impact of tourist’s activities to the environment as air pollution, overcrowding, and congestion, solid littering of the environment, distress to animals and alteration of the ecosystem. Furthermore, the study found the positive impact of tourists activities on the environment to be income generation through tourists activities and infrastructural development. It is recommended that the impact of tourism should be minimized through admitting the right carrying capacity and impact assessment.

Keywords: environmental, impact, investigation, tourists, activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Young Hee Geum

Abstract:

In this paper,we develop the complex dynamics of a family of optimal fourth-order multiple-root solvers and plot their basins of attraction. Mobius conjugacy maps and extraneous fixed points applied to a prototype quadratic polynomial raised to the power of the known integer multiplicity m are investigated. A 300 x 300 uniform grid centered at the origin covering 3 x 3 square region is chosen to visualize the initial values on each basin of attraction in accordance with a coloring scheme based on their dynamical behavior. The illustrative basins of attractions applied to various test polynomials and the corresponding statistical data for convergence are shown to confirm the theoretical convergence.

Keywords: basin of attraction, conjugacy, fourth-order, multiple-root finder

Procedia PDF Downloads 296