Search results for: longitudinal model

Authors: André Jesus, Yanjie Zhu, Irwanda Laory

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Structural health monitoring is one of the most promising technologies concerning aversion of structural risk and economic savings. Analysts often have to deal with a considerable variety of uncertainties that arise during a monitoring process. Namely the widespread application of numerical models (model-based) is accompanied by a widespread concern about quantifying the uncertainties prevailing in their use. Some of these uncertainties are related with the deterministic nature of the model (code uncertainty) others with the variability of its inputs (parameter uncertainty) and the discrepancy between a model/experiment (systematic uncertainty). The actual process always exhibits a random behaviour (observation error) even when conditions are set identically (residual variation). Bayesian inference assumes that parameters of a model are random variables with an associated PDF, which can be inferred from experimental data. However in many Bayesian methods the determination of systematic uncertainty can be problematic. In this work systematic uncertainty is associated with a discrepancy function. The numerical model and discrepancy function are approximated by Gaussian processes (surrogate model). Finally, to avoid the computational burden of a fully Bayesian approach the parameters that characterise the Gaussian processes were estimated in a four stage process (modular Bayesian approach). The proposed methodology has been successfully applied on fields such as geoscience, biomedics, particle physics but never on the SHM context. This approach considerably reduces the computational burden; although the extent of the considered uncertainties is lower (second order effects are neglected). To successfully identify the considered uncertainties this formulation was extended to consider multiple responses. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on a small scale aluminium bridge structure, subjected to a thermal expansion due to infrared heaters. Comparison of its performance with responses measured at different points of the structure and associated degrees of identifiability is also carried out. A numerical FEM model of the structure was developed and the stiffness from its supports is considered as a parameter to calibrate. Results show that the modular Bayesian approach performed best when responses of the same type had the lowest spatial correlation. Based on previous literature, using different types of responses (strain, acceleration, and displacement) should also improve the identifiability problem. Uncertainties due to parametric variability, observation error, residual variability, code variability and systematic uncertainty were all recovered. For this example the algorithm performance was stable and considerably quicker than Bayesian methods that account for the full extent of uncertainties. Future research with real-life examples is required to fully access the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: bayesian, calibration, numerical model, system identification, systematic uncertainty, Gaussian process

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Authors: Saheed Olakunle Sanusi, Israel Ajibade Adedeji

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The study analysed the effect of microfinance on the profit level of small and medium scale enterprises in Lagos. The data for the study were obtained by simple random sampling, and total of one hundred and fifty (150) small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) were sampled for the study. Seventy-five (75) each are microfinance users and non-users. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, logit model, t-test and ordinary least square (OLS) regression. The mean profit of the enterprises using microfinance is ₦16.8m, while for the non-users of microfinance is ₦5.9m. The mean profit of microfinance users is statistically different from the non-users. The result of the logit model specified for the determinant of access to microfinance showed that three of specified variables- educational status of the enterprise head, credit utilisation and volume of business investment are significant at P < 0.01. Enterprises with many years of experience, highly educated enterprise heads and high volume of business investment have more potential access to microfinance. The OLS regression model indicated that three parameters namely number of school years, the volume of business investment and (dummy) participation in microfinance were found to be significant at P < 0.05. These variables are therefore significant determinants of impacts of microfinance on profit level in the study area. The study, therefore, concludes and recommends that to improve the status of small and medium scale enterprises for an increase in profit, the full benefit of access to microfinance can be enhanced through investment in social infrastructure and human capital development. Also, concerted efforts should be made to encouraged non-users of microfinance among SMEs to use it in order to boost their profit.

Keywords: credit utilisation, logit model, microfinance, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Rakesh Namdeti

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Toxic dyes found in industrial effluent must be treated before being disposed of due to their harmful impact on human health and aquatic life. Thus, Musa acuminata (Banana Leaves) was employed in the role of a biosorbent in this work to get rid of methylene blue derived from a synthetic solution. The effects of five process parameters, such as temperature, pH, biosorbent dosage, and initial methylene blue concentration, using a central composite design (CCD), and the percentage of dye clearance were investigated. The response was modelled using a quadratic model based on the CCD. The analysis of variance revealed the most influential element on experimental design response (ANOVA). The temperature of 44.30C, pH of 7.1, biosorbent dose of 0.3 g, starting methylene blue concentration of 48.4 mg/L, and 84.26 percent dye removal were the best conditions for Musa acuminata (Banana leave powder). At these ideal conditions, the experimental percentage of biosorption was 76.93. The link between the estimated results of the developed ANN model and the experimental results defined the success of ANN modeling. As a result, the study's experimental results were found to be quite close to the model's predicted outcomes.

Keywords: Musa acuminata, central composite design, methylene blue, artificial neural network

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Authors: Weiyao Zhu, Qian Qi, Ming Yue, Dongxu Ma

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Due to the nano-micro pore structures and the massive multi-stage multi-cluster hydraulic fracturing in shale gas reservoirs, the multi-scale seepage flows are much more complicated than in most other conventional reservoirs, and are crucial for the economic development of shale gas. In this study, a new multi-scale non-linear flow model was established and simplified, based on different diffusion and slip correction coefficients. Due to the fact that different flow laws existed between the fracture network and matrix zone, a three-zone composite model was proposed. Then, according to the conformal transformation combined with the law of equivalent percolation resistance, the productivity equation of a horizontal fractured well, with consideration given to diffusion, slip, desorption, and absorption, was built. Also, an analytic solution was derived, and the interference of the multi-cluster fractures was analyzed. The results indicated that the diffusion of the shale gas was mainly in the transition and Fick diffusion regions. The matrix permeability was found to be influenced by slippage and diffusion, which was determined by the pore pressure and diameter according to the Knudsen number. It was determined that, with the increased half-lengths of the fracture clusters, flow conductivity of the fractures, and permeability of the fracture network, the productivity of the fractured well also increased. Meanwhile, with the increased number of fractures, the distance between the fractures decreased, and the productivity slowly increased due to the mutual interference of the fractures. In regard to the fractured horizontal wells, the free gas was found to majorly contribute to the productivity, while the contribution of the desorption increased with the increased pressure differences.

Keywords: multi-scale, fracture network, composite model, productivity

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Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi

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Newcastle disease is a highly contagious disease of birds caused by a para-myxo virus. In this paper, we presented Novel quarantine-adjusted incident and linear incident of Newcastle disease model equations. We considered the dynamics of transmission and control of Newcastle disease. The existence and uniqueness of the solutions were obtained. The existence of disease-free points was shown, and the model threshold parameter was examined using the next-generation operator method. The sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to identify the most sensitive parameters of the disease transmission. This revealed that as parameters β,ω, and ᴧ increase while keeping other parameters constant, the effective reproduction number R_ev increases. This implies that the parameters increase the endemicity of the infection of individuals. More so, when the parameters μ,ε,γ,δ_1, and α increase, while keeping other parameters constant, the effective reproduction number R_ev decreases. This implies the parameters decrease the endemicity of the infection as they have negative indices. Analytical results were numerically verified by the Differential Transformation Method (DTM) and quantitative views of the model equations were showcased. We established that as contact rate (β) increases, the effective reproduction number R_ev increases, as the effectiveness of drug usage increases, the R_ev decreases and as the quarantined individual decreases, the R_ev decreases. The results of the simulations showed that the infected individual increases when the susceptible person approaches zero, also the vaccination individual increases when the infected individual decreases and simultaneously increases the recovery individual.

Keywords: disease-free equilibrium, effective reproduction number, endemicity, Newcastle disease model, numerical, Sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Leili Esmaeilani, Jafar Ghaisari, Mohsen Ahmadian

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Hammerstein–Wiener model is a block-oriented model where a linear dynamic system is surrounded by two static nonlinearities at its input and output and could be used to model various processes. This paper contains an optimization approach method for analysing the problem of Hammerstein–Wiener systems identification. The method relies on reformulate the identification problem; solve it as constraint quadratic problem and analysing its solutions. During the formulation of the problem, effects of adding noise to both input and output signals of nonlinear blocks and disturbance to linear block, in the emerged equations are discussed. Additionally, the possible parametric form of matrix operations to reduce the equation size is presented. To analyse the possible solutions to the mentioned system of equations, a method to reduce the difference between the number of equations and number of unknown variables by formulate and importing existing knowledge about nonlinear functions is presented. Obtained equations are applied to an instance H–W system to validate the results and illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: identification, Hammerstein-Wiener, optimization, quantization

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Authors: Wiwin Tyas Istikowati, Futoshi Ishiguri, Haruna Aisho, Budi Sutiya, Imam Wahyudi, Kazuya Iizuka, Shinso Yokota

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The objective of this study was to investigate the anatomical characteristics of three native fast-growing species, terap (Artocarpus elasticus Reinw. ex Blume), medang (Neolitsea latifolia (Blume) S. Moore), and balik angin (Alphitonia excelsa (Fenzel) Reissek ex Benth) growing in the secondary forest in South Kalimantan, Indonesia for evaluating the possibility of tree breeding for wood quality. Cell lengths were investigated for 5 trees in each species at several different height positions (1.0, 3.0, 5.0, 7.0, 9.0, and 11.0 m above the ground). The mean values of fiber and vessel element lengths in terap, medang, and balik angin were 1.52 and 0.44, 1.16 and 0.53, and 1.02 and 0.49 mm, respectively. Fiber length in terap and balik angin gradually increased from pith to bark, whereas it increased up to 2 cm and then became nearly constant to the bark in medang. Vessel element length was almost constant from pith to bark in terap and balik angin, while slightly increased from pith to bark in medang. Fiber length in terap has a fluctuation pattern from ground level to top of the tree. It decreased up to 3 m above the ground, increased up to 5 m, and then decreased to the top of the tree. On the other hand, vessel element length slightly increased up to 5 m above the ground, and then decreased to the top of the tree. Both fiber and vessel element lengths in medang were almost constant from ground level to top of the tree, whereas decreased from ground level to top of the tree in balik angin. Significant difference at 1% level among trees was found in both fiber and vessel element length in both radial and longitudinal directions for terap and medang. Based on obtained results, it is concluded that the wood quality in fiber and vessel element lengths of terap and medang can be improved by tree breeding programs.

Keywords: anatomical properties, fiber length, vessel elements length, fast-growing species

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Authors: Mohamed M. A. Abumandour

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The red swamp freshwater crayfish breathe through three types of feather-like trichobranchiate gills; podobranchiae, arthrobranchiae and pleurobranchiae. All gills have the same general structure and appearance; plume-like with single broad setiferous, and single axis. The gill consists of axis with numerous finger-like filaments, having three morphological types; round, pointed and somewhat hooked shaped. The direction of filaments vary according their position; in middle region were nearly perpendicular to gill axis while in the apex were nearly parallel to axis. There were characteristic system of gill spines on; central axis (two types were distinguishable by presence of socket), basal plate, setobranch (long non-branched and short multidenticulate) and on the bilobed epipodal plate. There are four shape of spinated-like distal region of setobranch seta; two pointed processes (longitudinal arrangement and irregular arranged) and two broad processes (transverse triangular and multidenticulate). The bilobed epipodal plate devoid from any filaments and extended from outer side of podobranchiae as triangular basal part then extended between the gills as cord-like middle part then pass under the gill to lies against the thoracic body wall. By SEM, the apical part of bilobed epipodal plate have serrated free border and corrugated surface while the middle part have none serrated free border. There are two methods of gill cleaning mechanism in crayfish; passive and active method. The passive method occurred by; setae of setobranch, branchiostegite, bilobed epipodal plate, setiferous arthrodial lamellae and reversing the respiratory water through a narrow spaced branchial chamber.

Keywords: crayfis, gill spines, setobranch, gill setae, cleaning mechanisms

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Authors: Shrawan Baghel, Helen Cathcart, Biall J. O'Reilly

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Amorphous drug formulations have great potential to enhance solubility and thus bioavailability of BCS class II drugs. However, the higher free energy and molecular mobility of the amorphous form lowers the activation energy barrier for crystallization and thermodynamically drives it towards the crystalline state which makes them unstable. Accurate determination of the crystallization tendency/kinetics is the key to the successful design and development of such systems. In this study, dipyridamole (DPM) and cinnarizine (CNZ) has been selected as model compounds. Thermodynamic fragility (m_T) is measured from the heat capacity change at the glass transition temperature (Tg) whereas dynamic fragility (m_D) is evaluated using methods based on extrapolation of configurational entropy to zero 〖(m〗_(D_CE )), and heating rate dependence of Tg 〖(m〗_(D_Tg)). The mean relaxation time of amorphous drugs was calculated from Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher (VTF) equation. Furthermore, the correlation between fragility and glass forming ability (GFA) of model drugs has been established and the relevance of these parameters to crystallization of amorphous drugs is also assessed. Moreover, the crystallization kinetics of model drugs under isothermal conditions has been studied using Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (JMA) approach to determine the Avrami constant ‘n’ which provides an insight into the mechanism of crystallization. To further probe into the crystallization mechanism, the non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of model systems was also analysed by statistically fitting the crystallization data to 15 different kinetic models and the relevance of model-free kinetic approach has been established. In addition, the crystallization mechanism for DPM and CNZ at each extent of transformation has been predicted. The calculated fragility, glass forming ability (GFA) and crystallization kinetics is found to be in good correlation with the stability prediction of amorphous solid dispersions. Thus, this research work involves a multidisciplinary approach to establish fragility, GFA and crystallization kinetics as stability predictors for amorphous drug formulations.

Keywords: amorphous, fragility, glass forming ability, molecular mobility, mean relaxation time, crystallization kinetics, stability

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Authors: Najla Kamergi

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In a world context of increasing interest in environmental issues, this paper investigates the effect of agri-environmental regulations heterogeneity on the volume of crop commodities’ exports using a theoretically justified gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) for the 2003–2013 period. Our findings show that the difference in exporter and importer environmental regulations is more relevant to agricultural trade than trade agreements. In fact, the environmental gap between the two partners is decreasing slightly but significantly crop commodities’ exports according to our results. We also note that the sector of fruit and vegetables is more sensitive to this determinant, unlike cereals that remain relatively less affected. Furthermore, high-income countries have more tendency to trade with countries characterized by similar environmental stringency. Further results show that the BRICS are clearly importing from developed countries where the environmental difference is relatively important. It is likely that emerging countries are witnessing a growing demand for high-quality and “green” crop commodities captured by high-income exporters. Surprisingly, our results suggest that low and middle-income countries with the same level of environmental stringency are more likely to trade crop commodities.

Keywords: agricultural trade, environment, gravity model, food crops, agri-environmental efficiency, DEA

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Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

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Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak, Eric P. Salathé Jr, Jiemjai Kreasuwan

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Dynamical downscaling of the ECHAM5 global climate model is applied at 20-km horizontal resolution using the WRF regional climate model (WRF-ECHAM5), to project changes from 1990–2009 to 2045–2064 of temperature and precipitation over the Upper Ping River Basin. The analysis found that monthly changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the basin for the 2045-2064 compared to the 1990-2009 are revealed over the basin all months, with the largest warmer in December and the smallest warmer in February. The future simulated precipitation is smaller than that of the baseline value in May, July and August, while increasing of precipitation is revealed during pre-monsoon (April) and late monsoon (September and October). This means that the rainy season likely becomes longer and less intensified during the rainy season. During the cool-dry season and hot-dry season, precipitation is substantial increasing over the basin. For the annual cycle of changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the upper Ping River basin, the largest warmer in the mean temperature over the basin is 1.93 °C in December and the smallest is 0.77 °C in February. Increase in nighttime temperature (minimum temperature) is larger than that of daytime temperature (maximum temperature) during the dry season, especially in wintertime (November to February), resulted in decreasing the diurnal temperature range. The annual and seasonal changes in daily temperature and precipitation averaged over the basin. The annual mean rising are 1.43, 1.54 and 1.30 °C for mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively. The increasing of maximum temperature is larger than that of minimum temperature in all months during the dry season (November to April).

Keywords: climate change, regional climate model, upper Ping River basin, WRF

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, K. Czarnocki, E. Błazik-Borowa

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People on construction scaffoldings work in dynamically changing, often unfavourable climate. Additionally, this kind of work is performed on low stiffness structures at high altitude, which increases the risk of accidents. It is therefore desirable to define the parameters of the work environment that contribute to increasing the construction worker occupational safety level. The aim of this article is to present how changes in microclimate parameters on scaffolding can impact the development of dangerous situations and accidents. For this purpose, indicators based on the human thermal balance were used. However, use of this model under construction conditions is often burdened by significant errors or even impossible to implement due to the lack of precise data. Thus, in the target model, the modified parameter was used – apparent environmental temperature. Apparent temperature in the proposed Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model has been a perceived outdoor temperature, caused by the combined effects of air temperature, radiative temperature, relative humidity and wind speed (wind chill index, heat index). In the paper, correlations between component factors and apparent temperature for facade scaffolding with a width of 24.5 m and a height of 42.3 m, located at south-west side of building are presented. The distribution of factors on the scaffolding has been used to evaluate fitting of the microclimate model. The results of the studies indicate that observed ranges of apparent temperature on the scaffolds frequently results in a worker’s inability to adapt. This leads to reduced concentration and increased fatigue, adversely affects health, and consequently increases the risk of dangerous situations and accidental injuries

Keywords: apparent temperature, health, safety work, scaffoldings

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Authors: Fatemeh Nemati, Lucinda Leonard, Gwyn Lintern, Richard Thomson

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In this study, we will use modern numerical modeling approaches to estimate tsunami risks to the southern coast of British Columbia from landslides. Wave generation is to be simulated using the NHWAVE model, which solves the Navier-Stokes equations due to the more complex behavior of flow near the landslide source; far-field wave propagation will be simulated using the simpler model FUNWAVE_TVD with high-order Boussinesq-type wave equations, with a focus on the accurate simulation of wave propagation and regional- or coastal-scale inundation predictions.

Keywords: FUNWAVE-TVD, landslide-generated tsunami, NHWAVE, tsunami risk

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Authors: Ramon Santana

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The use of biometric identifiers in the field of information security, access control to resources, authentication in ATMs and banking among others, are of great concern because of the safety of biometric data. In the general architecture of a biometric system have been detected eight vulnerabilities, six of them allow obtaining minutiae template in plain text. The main consequence of obtaining minutia templates is the loss of biometric identifier for life. To mitigate these vulnerabilities several models to protect minutiae templates have been proposed. Several vulnerabilities in the cryptographic security of these models allow to obtain biometric data in plain text. In order to increase the cryptographic security and ease of reversibility, a minutiae templates protection model is proposed. The model aims to make the cryptographic protection and facilitate the reversibility of data using two levels of security. The first level of security is the data transformation level. In this level generates invariant data to rotation and translation, further transformation is irreversible. The second level of security is the evaluation level, where the encryption key is generated and data is evaluated using a defined evaluation function. The model is aimed at mitigating known vulnerabilities of the proposed models, basing its security on the impossibility of the polynomial reconstruction.

Keywords: fingerprint, template protection, bio-cryptography, minutiae protection

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Authors: Latif Adnane, C. E. Ait Zaouiat, M. Eddabbah

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In Wireless Body Area Networks, the issue of systems lifetime is a big challenge to complete. In this paper, we have tackled this subject to suggest some solutions. For this aim, we have studied some batteries characteristics related to human body temperature. Moreover, we have analyzed a mathematical model which defines sensors lifetime (battery lifetime). Based on this model, we note that the random access increases the energy consumption, because nodes are waking up during the whole superframe period. Results show that using scheduled mode access of IEEE 802.15.6 maximizes the lifetime function, by setting nodes in the sleep mode in the inactive period of transmission.

Keywords: battery, energy consumption, IEEE 802.15.6, lifetime, polling

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Authors: Briony Gray, Glenn Simpson, Hajira Dambha-Miller, Andrew Farmer

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Multimorbidity may be strongly affected by a variety of conditions, factors, and variables requiring higher demands on health and social care services, infrastructure, and expenses. Holding one or more conditions increases one’s risk for development of future conditions; with patients over 65 years old at highest risk. Psychosocial factors such as anxiety and depression are rising exponentially globally, which has been amplified by the COVID19 pandemic. These are highly correlated and predict poorer outcomes when held in coexistence and increase the likelihood of comorbid physical health conditions. While possible future reform of social and healthcare systems may help to alleviate some of these mounting pressures, there remains an urgent need to better understand the potential role health behaviours and psychosocial conditions - such as anxiety and depression – may have on aging populations. Using the UK healthcare scene as a lens for analysis, this study uses big data collected in the UK Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) to examine the role of anxiety and depression in ageing populations (65yrs+). Using logistic regression modelling, results identify the 10 most significant variables correlated with both anxiety and depression from data categorised into the areas of health behaviour, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and life satisfaction (each demonstrated through literature review to be of significance). These are compared with wider global research findings with the aim of better understanding the areas in which social and healthcare reform can support multimorbidity interventions, making suggestions for improved patient-centred care. Scope of future research is outlined, which includes analysis of 59 total multimorbidity variables from the ELSA dataset, going beyond anxiety and depression.

Keywords: multimorbidity, health behaviours, patient centred care, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Basant K. Jha, M. L. Kaurangini

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An approximate analytical solution is presented for convective flow in a horizontal channel filled with porous material. The Brinkman-Forchheimer extension of Darcy equation is utilized to model the fluid flow while the energy equation is utilized to model temperature distribution in the channel. The solutions were obtained utilizing the newly suggested technique and compared with those obtained from an implicit finite-difference solution.

Keywords: approximate analytical, convective flow, porous material, Brinkman-Forchiemer

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Authors: C. Catalina Zapata, Z. Claudia Montoya

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Transplant from hematopoietic parents (THP) or medulla (MT) is a procedure used to replace the medulla that does not work as part of a disease or when it is destroyed either by a treatment of high medication doses against cancer or by radiation. The transplant process has three stages, a stage prior to transplant, during and after the transplant. It is held with the help of an interdisciplinary team, including nursing, carrying out mainly educative procedures to warrant the adhesion and the changes in lifestyles needed to whom will undergo this procedure. The aim of the study was to assess the results of an educative procedure by nursing, on adult patients subjected to a transplant from hematopoietic parents at a high complexity institution of Medellin city, Colombia. This study had an observational longitudinal design. According to the rules of protocol, the educative activity must be held on all patients joining the procedure. Four instruments were designed in order to collect all the information. One of them to measure the sociodemographic variables, another one to measure self-care practices, another one to measure transplant knowledge and its cares and the other one to measure the 30-day post-transplant complications. The last three instruments were applied before and after the educative procedure. A univaried analysis was carried out but the bivaried analysis was not carried out since there were not statistically meaningful differences before and after. Within the results, ten patients were evaluated. The average age was 38.2 (13.38 SD – standard deviation), 8/10 were men. Some self-care practices such us having pets and plants and consuming some specific food as well as little use of UV protection are all present in this type of patients and are not modified after the procedure. In measuring the knowledge, something stands out among the answers. It is the fact that some patients do not know what the medulla is, the nature of separating wastes at home and the need to consult about vomit and nausea. The most frequent complications during the first thirty days were: nausea, vomit, fever, and rash. They are considered to be expected within this period. Patients do not exhibit differences in their level of knowledge before and after the educative procedure by nursing. The patients’ self-care practices do not involve all the necessary ones to avoid complications. During the first 30 days, most of the complications are typical of the transplant process from hematopoietic parents.

Keywords: bone marrow transplant, education, family, nursing, patients, Transplantation of hematopoietic progenitors

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Authors: Ishmael Obaeko Iwara

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The Point of Sale (POS) cash and cashless semi-formal business has emerged as a significant driver of employment in countries like Nigeria and Kenya, similar to other micro and small-scale enterprises. This business model enables individuals to establish cash in/out outlets, offering entrepreneurs and small business owners a lucrative opportunity to generate additional income. However, the benefits extend beyond employment, as the POS model has become an integral part of the payment system in these countries. It facilitates convenient fund transfers, cash deposits, and withdrawals for individuals residing in both urban and rural areas. Given South Africa's high youth unemployment rate and limited banking services in rural households, coupled with a vibrant informal business economy akin to Nigeria and Kenya, the POS model potentially presents a business opportunity for the unemployed and serves as a banking solution for remote communities. Nonetheless, its implementation within South Africa's entrepreneurial landscape remains a subject of contention. Through qualitative research employing a participatory community-led action research approach, this study analyzes feedback, critiques, and potential interventions from various stakeholders, including business actors, grassroots communities, financial institutions, and policymakers. The findings offer crucial insights into the challenges associated with the adoption of the POS model and suggest mitigating factors to facilitate its successful implementation.

Keywords: grassroots entrepreneurs, rural households, POS banking, youth employment

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Authors: Gizem Kayar, Ramazan Bakir, M. Ilkay Koşar, Ceren U. Gencer, Alperen Ayyildiz

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Anatomy classes are crucial for general education of medical students, whereas learning anatomy is quite challenging and requires memorization of thousands of structures. In traditional teaching methods, learning materials are still based on books, anatomy mannequins, or videos. This results in forgetting many important structures after several years. However, more interactive teaching methods like virtual reality, augmented reality, gamification, and motion sensors are becoming more popular since such methods ease the way we learn and keep the data in mind for longer terms. During our study, we designed a virtual reality based digital head anatomy platform to investigate whether a fully interactive anatomy platform is effective to learn anatomy and to understand the level of teaching and learning optimization. The Head is one of the most complicated human anatomy structures, with thousands of tiny, unique structures. This makes the head anatomy one of the most difficult parts to understand during class sessions. Therefore, we developed a fully interactive digital tool with 3D model marking, quiz structures, 2D/3D puzzle structures, and VR support so as to integrate the power of VR and gamification. The project has been developed in Unity game engine with HTC Vive Cosmos VR headset. The head anatomy 3D model has been selected with full skeletal, muscular, integumentary, head, teeth, lymph, and vein system. The biggest issue during the development was the complexity of our model and the marking of it in the 3D world system. 3D model marking requires to access to each unique structure in the counted subsystems which means hundreds of marking needs to be done. Some parts of our 3D head model were monolithic. This is why we worked on dividing such parts to subparts which is very time-consuming. In order to subdivide monolithic parts, one must use an external modeling tool. However, such tools generally come with high learning curves, and seamless division is not ensured. Second option was to integrate tiny colliders to all unique items for mouse interaction. However, outside colliders which cover inner trigger colliders cause overlapping, and these colliders repel each other. Third option is using raycasting. However, due to its own view-based nature, raycasting has some inherent problems. As the model rotate, view direction changes very frequently, and directional computations become even harder. This is why, finally, we studied on the local coordinate system. By taking the pivot point of the model into consideration (back of the nose), each sub-structure is marked with its own local coordinate with respect to the pivot. After converting the mouse position to the world position and checking its relation with the corresponding structure’s local coordinate, we were able to mark all points correctly. The advantage of this method is its applicability and accuracy for all types of monolithic anatomical structures.

Keywords: anatomy, e-learning, virtual reality, 3D model marking

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Authors: Shahid Nishat, Keith Thomas

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E-government initiatives attract substantial public investments around the world. These investments are based on the premise of digital transformation of the public services, improved efficiency and transparency, and citizen participation in the social democratic processes. However, many e-Government projects, especially in developing countries, fail to achieve their intended outcomes, and a strong disparity exists between the investments made and outcomes achieved, often referred to as e-Government paradox. Further, there is lack of research on evaluating the impacts of e-Government in terms of public value it creates, which ultimately drives usage. This study aims to address these gaps by identifying key enablers of e-Government success and by proposing a public value based framework to examine impact of e-Government services. The study will extend Delone and McLean Information System (IS) Success model by integrating Technology Readiness (TR) characteristics to develop an integrated success model. Level of analysis will be mobile government applications, and the framework will be empirically tested using quantitative methods. The research will add to the literature on e-Government success and will be beneficial for governments, especially in developing countries aspiring to improve public services through the use of Information Communication Technologies (ICT).

Keywords: e-Government, IS success model, public value, technology adoption, technology readiness

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Authors: Qamar J. A. Khan, Fatma Ahmed Al Kharousi

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A prey-predator eco-epidemiological model is studied where transmission of the disease between infected and uninfected prey is nonlinear. The interaction of the predator with infected and uninfected prey species depend on their numerical superiority. Harvesting of both uninfected and infected prey is considered. Stability analysis is carried out for equilibrium values. Using the parameter µ, the death rate of infected prey as a bifurcation parameter it is shown that Hopf bifurcation could occur. The theoretical results are compared with numerical results for different set of parameters.

Keywords: bifurcation, optimal harvesting, predator, prey, stability

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Authors: Bambang Piscesa, Mario M. Attard, Dwi Presetya, Ali K. Samani

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A numerical strategy formulated using a plasticity approach is presented to model spalling of the concrete cover in reinforced concrete columns. The stage at which the concrete cover within reinforced concrete column spalls has a direct bearing on the load capacity. The concrete cover can prematurely spall before the full cross-section can be utilized if the concrete is very brittle under compression such as for very high strength concretes. If the confinement to the core is high enough, the column can achieve a higher peak load by utilizing the core. A numerical strategy is presented to model spalling of the concrete cover. Various numerical strategies are employed to model the behavior of reinforced concrete columns which include: (1) adjusting the material properties to incorporate restrained shrinkage; (2) modifying the plastic dilation rate in the presence of the tensile pressure; (3) adding a tension cut-off failure surface and (4) giving the concrete cover region and the column core different material properties. Numerical comparisons against experimental results are carried out that shown excellent agreement with the experimental results and justify the use of the proposed strategies to predict the axial load capacity of reinforce concrete columns.

Keywords: spalling, concrete, plastic dilation, reinforced concrete columns

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

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In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

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Authors: Mayandi Ramanathan

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Gas turbine blades see the most aggressive thermal stress conditions within the engine, due to high Turbine Entry Temperatures in the range of 1500 to 1600°C. The blades rotate at very high rotation rates and remove a significant amount of thermal power from the gas stream. At high temperatures, the major component failure mechanism is a creep. During its service over time under high thermal loads, the blade will deform, lengthen and rupture. High strength and stiffness in the longitudinal direction up to elevated service temperatures are certainly the most needed properties of turbine blades and gas turbine components. The proposed advanced Ti alloy material needs a process that provides a strategic orientation of metallic ordering, uniformity in composition and high metallic strength. The chemical composition of the proposed Ti alloy material (25% Ta/(Al+Ta) ratio), unlike Ti-47Al-2Cr-2Nb, has less excess Al that could limit the service life of turbine blades. Properties and performance of Ti-47Al-2Cr-2Nb and Ti-6Al-4V materials will be compared with that of the proposed Ti alloy material to generalize the performance metrics of various gas turbine components. This paper will involve the summary of the effects of additive manufacturing and heat treatment process conditions on the changes in the phase composition, grain structure, lattice structure of the material, tensile strength, creep strain rate, thermal expansion coefficient and fracture toughness at different temperatures. Based on these results, additive manufacturing and heat treatment process conditions will be optimized to fabricate turbine blade with Ti-43Al matrix alloyed with an optimized amount of refractory Ta metal. Improvement in service temperature of the turbine blades and corrosion resistance dependence on the coercivity of the alloy material will be reported. A correlation of phase composition and creep strain rate will also be discussed.

Keywords: high temperature materials, aerospace, specific strength, creep strain, phase composition

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Authors: Xiaowei Zhang, Min Xu, Saeid Habibi, Fengjun Yan, Ryan Ahmed

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Recently, Electric Vehicles (EVs) have received extensive consideration since they offer a more sustainable and greener transportation alternative compared to fossil-fuel propelled vehicles. Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) batteries are increasingly being deployed in EVs because of their high energy density, high cell-level voltage, and low rate of self-discharge. Since Li-ion batteries represent the most expensive component in the EV powertrain, accurate monitoring and control strategies must be executed to ensure their prolonged lifespan. The Battery Management System (BMS) has to accurately estimate parameters such as the battery State-of-Charge (SOC), State-of-Health (SOH), and Remaining Useful Life (RUL). In order for the BMS to estimate these parameters, an accurate and control-oriented battery model has to work collaboratively with a robust state and parameter estimation strategy. Since battery physical parameters, such as the internal resistance and diffusion coefficient change depending on the battery state-of-life (SOL), the BMS has to be adaptive to accommodate for this change. In this paper, an extensive battery aging study has been conducted over 12-months period on 5.4 Ah, 3.7 V Lithium polymer cells. Instead of using fixed charging/discharging aging cycles at fixed C-rate, a set of real-world driving scenarios have been used to age the cells. The test has been interrupted every 5% capacity degradation by a set of reference performance tests to assess the battery degradation and track model parameters. As battery ages, the combined model parameters are optimized and tracked in an offline mode over the entire batteries lifespan. Based on the optimized model, a state and parameter estimation strategy based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the relatively new Smooth Variable Structure Filter (SVSF) have been applied to estimate the SOC at various states of life.

Keywords: lithium-ion batteries, genetic algorithm optimization, battery aging test, parameter identification

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Authors: Yating Yang, Xue Zhang, Chengli Zhao

Abstract:

Technology capability refers to the comprehensive ability that influences all factors of technological development. Among them, researchers’ resources serve as the foundation and driving force for technology capability, representing a significant manifestation of a country/region's technological capability. Therefore, the cross-border transfer behavior of researchers to some extent reflects changes in technological capability between countries/regions, providing a unique research perspective for technological capability assessment. This paper proposes a technological capability assessment model based on personnel transfer networks, which consists of a researchers' transfer network model and a country/region role evolution model. It evaluates the changes in a country/region's technological capability roles from the perspective of researcher transfers and conducts an analysis using artificial intelligence as a case study based on literature data. The study reveals that the United States, China, and the European Union are core nodes, and identifies the role evolution characteristics of several major countries/regions.

Keywords: transfer network, technological capability assessment, central-peripheral structure, role evolution

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Authors: Prashant Verma

Abstract:

Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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