Search results for: trend variable

Authors: Fatima Boutaleb

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Entrepreneurship proves to be crucial for the economic growth and development, since it contributes to job creation and the improvement of the overall productivity thus generating a positive impact upon society at various levels. Promoting entrepreneurship stimulates therefore economic diversity that is key to the betterment and/or maintaining of the standard of living. In fact, recent research suggests that entrepreneurship contributes to development by creating businesses and jobs, stimulating innovation, creating social capital across borders, and channeling political and financial capital. However, different research studies indicate that among the main factors impeding the entrepreneurship are politico-economic as socio-cultural problems, with an intensity for those related to young people and to women. In the MENA region, discrimination inherent in gender is alarming: Only one woman in eight runs her own business against 1 in 3 men. In most countries, young women and young men are facing problems involving access to finance, inadequate infrastructure, lack of support and, in general, an ecosystem that is rather unfavorable. According to the International Labor Organization, North Africa and the Middle East has the highest unemployment rate in all other regions of the world. In other hand, nearly a quarter of the population under 30 is unemployed and youth unemployment costs more than $40 billion each year to the region. In the current context, the situations in the Middle East and North Africa region are singular, both in terms of demographic trends and socio-economic issues around the employment of a large and better trained youth, but still strongly affected by unemployment and under-employment. According to a study published in 2015 by McKinsey, the world gain 26% of additional GDP (47% in the MENA region), more than 28 trillion dollars by 2025, if women came to participate, as well as men, to the economy. Promoting entrepreneurship represents an excellent alternative for the countries whose productive fabric fails to integrate the contingent of young people entering the job market each year. The MENA region, presenting entrepreneurial activity rates below those of other regions in terms of comparable development, has undoubtedly leeway at this level, even though the region displays large national heterogeneity, namely in the priority given to the promotion of entrepreneurship. The objective of this article is therefore to examine the women entrepreneurial vocation in the MENA region, to see to what extent research on the determinant of gender can provide information on the trend of the emerging entrepreneurial activity whether driven by necessity or by opportunity and, on this basis, to submit public policy proposals for the improvement of the mechanisms of inclusion among the youth women people. The objective is not to analyze the causality models but rather to identify the entrepreneurial construct specific to the MENA region via the analysis of GEM data from 2017 to 2019 among adults belonging to 10 countries of the MENA region. Notably, the study shows that inclusion of young women may be enhanced. These disadvantaged segments frequently intend to become entrepreneurs, but they tend not to enact their vocational intentions.

Keywords: economic development, entrepreneurial activity, GEM, gender, informal sector

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Authors: Jessica Raven Gates, Gemma Wilson-Menzfeld, Professor Alison Steven

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In 2019, the Primary Care system in the UK National Health Service (NHS) was subject to reform and restructuring. Primary Care Networks (PCNs) were established, which aligned with a trend towards integrated care both within the NHS and internationally. The introduction of PCNs brought groups of GP practices in a locality together, to operate as a network, build on existing services and collaborate at a larger scale. PCNs were expected to bring a range of benefits to patients and address some of the workforce pressures in the NHS, through an expanded and collaborative workforce. The early establishment of PCNs was disrupted by the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. This study, set in the context of the pandemic, aimed to explore experiences of the PCN workforce, and their perceptions of the establishment of PCNs. Specific objectives focussed on examining factors perceived as enabling or hindering the success of a PCN, the impact on day-to-day work, the approach to implementing change, and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic upon PCN development. This study is part of a three-phase PhD project that utilized qualitative approaches and was underpinned by social constructionist philosophy. Phase 1: a systematic narrative review explored the provision of preventative healthcare services in UK primary settings and examined facilitators and barriers to delivery as experienced by the workforce. Phase 2: informed by the findings of phase 1, semi-structured interviews were conducted with fifteen participants (PCN workforce). Phase 3: follow-up interviews were conducted with original participants to examine any changes to their experiences and perceptions of PCNs. Three main themes span across phases 2 and 3 and were generated through a Framework Analysis approach: 1) working together at scale, 2) network infrastructure, and 3) PCN leadership. Findings suggest that through efforts to work together at scale and collaborate as a network, participants have broadly accepted the concept of PCNs. However, the workforce has been hampered by system design and system complexity. Operating against such barriers has led to a negative psychological impact on some PCN leaders and others in the PCN workforce. While the pandemic undeniably increased pressure on healthcare systems around the world, it also acted as a disruptor, offering a glimpse into how collaboration in primary care can work well. Through the integration of findings from all phases, a new theoretical model has been developed, which conceptualises the findings from this Ph.D. study and demonstrates how the workforce has experienced change associated with the establishment of PCNs. The model includes a contextual component of the COVID-19 pandemic and has been informed by concepts from Complex Adaptive Systems theory. This model is the original contribution to knowledge of the PhD project, alongside recommendations for practice, policy and future research. This study is significant in the realm of health services research, and while the setting for this study is the UK NHS, the findings will be of interest to an international audience as the research provides insight into how the healthcare workforce may experience imposed policy and service changes.

Keywords: health services research, qualitative research, NHS workforce, primary care

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Authors: Ngoc Thao Linh Dang

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Urban waterfront redevelopment is a global phenomenon, and thousands of schemes are being carried out in large metropoles, medium-sized cities, and even small towns all over the world. This opportunity brings the city back to the river and rediscovers waterfront revitalization as a unique opportunity for cities to reconnect with their unique historical and cultural image. The redevelopment can encourage economic investments, serve as a social platform for public interactions, and allow dwellers to express their rights to the city. Many coastal cities have effectively transformed the perception of their waterfront area through years of redevelopment initiatives, having been neglected for over a century. However, this process has never been easy due to the particular complexity of the space: local culture, history, and market-led development. Moreover, municipal governments work out the balance of diverse stakeholder interests, especially when repurposing high-profile and redundant spaces that form the core of urban economic investment while also accommodating the present and future generations in sustainable environments. Urban critics consistently grapple with the effectiveness of the planning process on the new waterfront, where public spaces are criticized for presenting a lack of opportunities for actual public participation due to privatization and authoritarian governance while no longer doing what they are ‘meant to’: all arise in reaction to the perceived failure of these places to meet expectations. The planning culture and the decision-making context determine the level of public involvement in the planning process; however, in the context of competing market forces and commercial interests dominating cities’ planning agendas, planning for public space in urban waterfronts tends to be for economic gain rather than supporting residents' social needs. These newly pleasing settings satisfied the cluster of middle-class individuals, new communities living along the waterfront, and tourists. A trend of public participatory exclusion is primarily determined by the nature of the planning being undertaken and the decision-making context in which it is embedded. Starting from this context, the research investigates the influence of planning on waterfront regeneration and the role of participation in this process. The research aims to look specifically at the characteristics of the planning process of the waterfront in Da Nang and its impact on the regeneration of the place to regain the city’s historical value and enhance local cultural identity and images. Vietnam runs a top-down planning system where municipal governments have control or power over what happens in their city following the approved planning from the national government. The community has never been excluded from development; however, their participation is still marginalized. In order to ensure social equality, a proposed approach called "bottom-up" should be considered and implemented alongside the traditional "top-down" process and provide a balance of perspectives, as it allows for the voices of the most underprivileged social group involved in a planning project to be heard, rather than ignored. The research provides new insights into the influence of the planning process on the waterfront regeneration in the context of Da Nang.

Keywords: planning process, public participation, top-down planning, waterfront regeneration

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Authors: Eman AbdelSabour

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Sustainability is increasingly being considered as a critical aspect in shaping the urban environment. It works as an invention development basis for global urban growth. Currently, different models and structures impact the means of interpreting the criteria that would be included in defining a sustainable city. There is a collective need to improve the growth path to an extremely durable path by presenting different suggestions regarding multi-scale initiatives. The global rise in urbanization has led to increased demand and pressure for better urban planning choice and scenarios for a better sustainable urban alternative. The need for an assessment tool at the urban scale was prompted due to the trend of developing increasingly sustainable urban development (SUD). The neighborhood scale is being managed by a growing research committee since it seems to be a pertinent scale through which economic, environmental, and social impacts could be addressed. Although neighborhood design is a comparatively old practice, it is in the initial years of the 21st century when environmentalists and planners started developing sustainable assessment at the neighborhood level. Through this, urban reality can be considered at a larger scale whereby themes which are beyond the size of a single building can be addressed, while it still stays small enough that concrete measures could be analyzed. The neighborhood assessment tool has a crucial role in helping neighborhood sustainability to perform approach and fulfill objectives through a set of themes and criteria. These devices are also known as neighborhood assessment tool, district assessment tool, and sustainable community rating tool. The primary focus of research has been on sustainability from the economic and environmental aspect, whereas the social, cultural issue is rarely focused. Therefore, this research is based on Doha, Qatar, the current urban conditions of the neighborhoods is discussed in this study. The research problem focuses on the spatial features in relation to the socio-cultural aspects. This study is outlined in three parts; the first section comprises of review of the latest use of wellbeing assessment methods to enhance decision process of retrofitting physical features of the neighborhood. The second section discusses the urban settlement development, regulations and the process of decision-making rule. An analysis of urban development policy with reference to neighborhood development is also discussed in this section. Moreover, it includes a historical review of the urban growth of the neighborhoods as an atom of the city system present in Doha. Last part involves developing quantified indicators regarding subjective well-being through a participatory approach. Additionally, applying GIS will be utilized as a visualizing tool for the apparent Quality of Life (QoL) that need to develop in the neighborhood area as an assessment approach. Envisaging the present QoL situation in Doha neighborhoods is a process to improve current condition neighborhood function involves many days to day activities of the residents, due to which areas are considered dynamic.

Keywords: neighborhood, subjective wellbeing, decision support tools, Doha, retrofiring

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Authors: Sadat Sembatya

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Tantalum metal is used in addressing capacitance challenge in the 21st-century technology growth. Tantalum is rarely found in its elemental form. Hence it’s often found with niobium and the radioactive elements of thorium and uranium. Industrial processes are required to extract pure tantalum. Its deposits are mainly oxide associated and exist in Ta-Nb oxides such as tapiolite, wodginite, ixiolite, rutile and pyrochlore-supergroup minerals are of minor importance. The stability and chemical inertness of tantalum makes it a valuable substance for laboratory equipment and a substitute for platinum. Each period of Tantalum ore formation is characterized by specific mineralogical and geochemical features. Compositions of Columbite-Group Minerals (CGM) are variable: Fe-rich types predominate in the Man Shield (Sierra Leone), the Congo Craton (DR Congo), the Kamativi Belt (Zimbabwe) and the Jos Plateau (Nigeria). Mn-rich columbite-tantalite is typical of the Alto Ligonha Province (Mozambique), the Arabian-Nubian Shield (Egypt, Ethiopia) and the Tantalite Valley pegmatites (southern Namibia). There are large compositional variations through Fe-Mn fractionation, followed by Nb-Ta fractionation. These are typical for pegmatites usually associated with very coarse quartz-feldspar-mica granites. They are young granitic systems of the Kibara Belt of Central Africa and the Older Granites of Nigeria. Unlike ‘simple’ Be-pegmatites, most Ta-Nb rich pegmatites have the most complex zoning. Hence we need systematic exploration tools to find and rapidly assess the potential of different pegmatites. The pegmatites exist as known deposits (e.g., abandoned mines) and the exposed or buried pegmatites. We investigate rocks and minerals to trace for the possibility of the effect of hydrothermal alteration mainly for exposed pegmatites, do mineralogical study to prove evidence of gradual replacement and geochemistry to report the availability of trace elements which are good indicators of mineralisation. Pegmatites are not good geophysical responders resulting to the exclusion of the geophysics option. As for more advanced prospecting, we bulk samples from different zones first to establish their grades and characteristics, then make a pilot test plant because of big samples to aid in the quantitative characterization of zones, and then drill to reveal distribution and extent of different zones but not necessarily grade due to nugget effect. Rapid assessment tools are needed to assess grade and degree of fractionation in order to ‘rule in’ or ‘rule out’ a given pegmatite for future work. Pegmatite exploration is also unique, high risk and expensive hence right traceability system and certification for 3Ts are highly needed.

Keywords: exploration, mineralogy, pegmatites, tantalum

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Authors: Anush Patric, M. Jadeyegowda, M. N. Ramesh, M. Ravikumar, C. R. Ajay

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Kodagu district which is situated in Central Western Ghats regions falls in one of the hottest of hot spots of biodiversity which is recognised by UNESCO. The district has one of the highest densities of community managed sacred forests in the world with rich floral and faunal diversity. It is a habitat for more than ten different types of Ethnic Indigenous tribal groups commonly called ‘Girijanas’ (Soligas, Yarvas, Jenukuruba, Bettakuruba etc.), who are having the rich knowledge of medicinal value of the plants that are commonly available in the forest. The tribal men of this region are the treasure house of the traditional plant knowledge and health care practices. An ethnobotanical survey was undertaken in tribal areas of the district to collect information about some of the indigenous medicinal plant knowledge of tribal people by semi-structured interviews, ranking exercises and field observations on their native habitat in order to evaluate the potential medicinal uses of local plants. The study revealed that, the ethnobotanical information of 83 plant species belonging to 45 families, of the total 83 species documented, most plants used in the treatment were trees (11 species), shrubs (41 species), herbs (22 species) and rarely climbers (9 species) which are used in the treatment of Hyperacidity, Respiratory disorders, Snake bite Abortifacient, Anthelmintic, Paralysis, Antiseptic, Fever, Chest pain, Stomachic, Jaundice, Piles, Asthma, Malaria, Renal disorders, Malaria and many other diseases. Maximum of 6 plant species each of Acanthaceae, Apiaceae and were used for drug preparation, followed by Asclepiadaceae, Liliaceae, Fabaceae, Verbenaceae, Caesalpinaceae, Bombaceae, Papilonaceae, Solanaceae, Rubiaceae, Myrtaceae, Amaranthaceae, Asteraceae, Ascelepidaceae, Cucurbitaceae, Apocyanaceae, and Solanaceae etc. In our present study, only medicinal plants and their local medicinal uses are recorded and presented. Information was obtained by local informants having the knowledge about medicinal plants. About 23 local tribes were interviewed. For each plant, necessary information like botanical name, family of plant species, local name and uses are given. Recent trend shows a decline in the number of traditional herbal healers in the tribal areas since the younger generation is not interested to continue this tradition. Hence, there is an urgent need to record and preserve all information on plants used by different ethnic/tribal communities for various purposes before it reaches to verge of extinction. In addition, several wild medicinal plants are declining in numbers due to deforestation and forest fires. There is need for phytochemical analysis and conservation measures to be taken for conserving medicinal plant species which is far better than allopathic medicines and these do not cause any side effects as they are the natural disease healers. So, conservation strategies have to be practiced in all levels and sectors by creating awareness about the value of such medicinal plants, and it is necessary to save the disappearing plants to strengthen the document and to conserve them for future generation.

Keywords: diseases, ethnic groups, folk medicine, Kodagu, medicinal plants

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Authors: Marina Shakleina, Konstantin Shaklein, Stanislav Yakiro

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The digitalization of modern human life over the last decade has facilitated the acquisition, storage, and processing of data, which are used to detect changes in consumer preferences and to improve the internal efficiency of the production process. This emerging trend has attracted academic interest in the use of big data in research. The study focuses on modeling the social comfort of the Russian population for the period 2010-2021 using big data. Big data provides enormous opportunities for understanding human interactions at the scale of society with plenty of space and time dynamics. One of the most popular big data sources is Google Trends. The methodology for assessing social comfort using big data involves several steps: 1. 574 words were selected based on the Harvard IV-4 Dictionary adjusted to fit the reality of everyday Russian life. The set of keywords was further cleansed by excluding queries consisting of verbs and words with several lexical meanings. 2. Search queries were processed to ensure comparability of results: the transformation of data to a 10-point scale, elimination of popularity peaks, detrending, and deseasoning. The proposed methodology for keyword search and Google Trends processing was implemented in the form of a script in the Python programming language. 3. Block and summary integral indicators of social comfort were constructed using the first modified principal component resulting in weighting coefficients values of block components. According to the study, social comfort is described by 12 blocks: ‘health’, ‘education’, ‘social support’, ‘financial situation’, ‘employment’, ‘housing’, ‘ethical norms’, ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘leisure’, ‘environment’, ‘infrastructure’. According to the model, the summary integral indicator increased by 54% and was 4.631 points; the average annual rate was 3.6%, which is higher than the rate of economic growth by 2.7 p.p. The value of the indicator describing social comfort in Russia is determined by 26% by ‘social support’, 24% by ‘education’, 12% by ‘infrastructure’, 10% by ‘leisure’, and the remaining 28% by others. Among 25% of the most popular searches, 85% are of negative nature and are mainly related to the blocks ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘health’, for example, ‘crime rate’, ‘vulnerability’. Among the 25% most unpopular queries, 99% of the queries were positive and mostly related to the blocks ‘ethical norms’, ‘education’, ‘employment’, for example, ‘social package’, ‘recycling’. In conclusion, the introduction of the latent category ‘social comfort’ into the scientific vocabulary deepens the theory of the quality of life of the population in terms of the study of the involvement of an individual in the society and expanding the subjective aspect of the measurements of various indicators. Integral assessment of social comfort demonstrates the overall picture of the development of the phenomenon over time and space and quantitatively evaluates ongoing socio-economic policy. The application of big data in the assessment of latent categories gives stable results, which opens up possibilities for their practical implementation.

Keywords: big data, Google trends, integral indicator, social comfort

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Authors: Lukasz Grabowski, Marcin Szlachetka, Tytus Tulwin

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The main task of the engine cooling system is to maintain its average operating temperatures within strictly defined limits. Too high or too low average temperatures result in accelerated wear or even damage to the engine or its individual components. In order to avoid local overheating or significant temperature gradients, leading to high stresses in the component, the aim is to ensure an even flow of air. In the case of analyses related to heat exchange, one of the main problems is the comparison of temperature fields because standard measuring instruments such as thermocouples or thermistors only provide information about the course of temperature at a given point. Thermal imaging tests can be helpful in this case. With appropriate camera settings and taking into account environmental conditions, we are able to obtain accurate temperature fields in the form of thermograms. Emission of heat from the engine to the engine compartment is an important issue when designing a cooling system. Also, in the case of liquid cooling, the main sources of heat in the form of emissions from the engine block, cylinders, etc. should be identified. It is important to redesign the engine compartment ventilation system. Ensuring proper cooling of aircraft reciprocating engine is difficult not only because of variable operating range but mainly because of different cooling conditions related to the change of speed or altitude of flight. Engine temperature also has a direct and significant impact on the properties of engine oil, which under the influence of this parameter changes, in particular, its viscosity. Too low or too high, its value can be a result of fast wear of engine parts. One of the ways to determine the temperatures occurring on individual parts of the engine is the use of thermal imaging measurements. The article presents the results of preliminary thermal imaging tests of aircraft piston diesel engine with a maximum power of about 100 HP. In order to perform the heat emission tests of the tested engine, the ThermaCAM S65 thermovision monitoring system from FLIR (Forward-Looking Infrared) together with the ThermaCAM Researcher Professional software was used. The measurements were carried out after the engine warm up. The engine speed was 5300 rpm The measurements were taken for the following environmental parameters: air temperature: 17 °C, ambient pressure: 1004 hPa, relative humidity: 38%. The temperatures distribution on the engine cylinder and on the exhaust manifold were analysed. Thermal imaging tests made it possible to relate the results of simulation tests to the real object by measuring the rib temperature of the cylinders. The results obtained are necessary to develop a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model of heat emission from the engine bay. The project/research was financed in the framework of the project Lublin University of Technology-Regional Excellence Initiative, funded by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (contract no. 030/RID/2018/19).

Keywords: aircraft, piston engine, heat, emission

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Authors: Martin Grootveld, Benita Percival, Sarah Moumtaz, Kerry L. Grootveld

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Objectives/Hypotheses: The adverse health effect potential of dietary lipid oxidation products (LOPs) has evoked much clinical interest. Therefore, we employed a ¹H NMR-linked Principal Component Regression (PCR) chemometrics modelling strategy to explore relationships between data matrices comprising (1) aldehydic LOP concentrations generated in culinary oils/fats when exposed to laboratory-simulated shallow frying practices, and (2) the prior saturated (SFA), monounsaturated (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) contents of such frying media (FM), together with their heating time-points at a standard frying temperature (180 ^oC). Methods: Corn, sunflower, extra virgin olive, rapeseed, linseed, canola, coconut and MUFA-rich algae frying oils, together with butter and lard, were heated according to laboratory-simulated shallow-frying episodes at 180 ^oC, and FM samples were collected at time-points of 0, 5, 10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 min. (n = 6 replicates per sample). Aldehydes were determined by ¹H NMR analysis (Bruker AV 400 MHz spectrometer). The first (dependent output variable) PCR data matrix comprised aldehyde concentration scores vectors (PC1* and PC2*), whilst the second (predictor) one incorporated those from the fatty acid content/heating time variables (PC1-PC4) and their first-order interactions. Results: Structurally complex trans,trans- and cis,trans-alka-2,4-dienals, 4,5-epxy-trans-2-alkenals and 4-hydroxy-/4-hydroperoxy-trans-2-alkenals (group I aldehydes predominantly arising from PUFA peroxidation) strongly and positively loaded on PC1*, whereas n-alkanals and trans-2-alkenals (group II aldehydes derived from both MUFA and PUFA hydroperoxides) strongly and positively loaded on PC2*. PCR analysis of these scores vectors (SVs) demonstrated that PCs 1 (positively-loaded linoleoylglycerols and [linoleoylglycerol]:[SFA] content ratio), 2 (positively-loaded oleoylglycerols and negatively-loaded SFAs), 3 (positively-loaded linolenoylglycerols and [PUFA]:[SFA] content ratios), and 4 (exclusively orthogonal sampling time-points) all powerfully contributed to aldehydic PC1* SVs (p 10^-3 to < 10^-9), as did all PC1-3 x PC4 interaction ones (p 10^-5 to < 10^-9). PC2* was also markedly dependent on all the above PC SVs (PC2 > PC1 and PC3), and the interactions of PC1 and PC2 with PC4 (p < 10^-9 in each case), but not the PC3 x PC4 contribution. Conclusions: NMR-linked PCR analysis is a valuable strategy for (1) modelling the generation of aldehydic LOPs in heated cooking oils and other FM, and (2) tracking their unsaturated fatty acid (UFA) triacylglycerol sources therein.

Keywords: frying oils, lipid oxidation products, frying episodes, chemometrics, principal component regression, NMR Analysis, cytotoxic/genotoxic aldehydes

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Authors: Kassahun Tilahun

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The purpose of the study was two-fold: to examine the socio-demographic and psychological predictors of well-being and formulate a socio-culturally sound approach explaining the meaning and experience of psychological well-being among Ethiopian adults. Ryan and Deci’s Self-Determination Theory was duly considered as a theoretical framework of the study. The study followed a sequential explanatory mixed method design. Both quantitative and qualitative data were obtained, via scales and open-ended questionnaires, from 438 civil servants working in Addis Ababa. 30 interviews were also conducted to gain further information. An in-depth analysis of the reliability and validity of instruments was made before employing them to the main study. The results showed that adults were better off in both their scores of psychological and subjective well-being. Besides, adults’ well-being was found to be quite a function of their gender, age, marital status, educational level and household income. Males had a healthier psychological well-being status than females, where as females were better in their subjective well-being. A significant difference in psychological well-being was also observed between emerging and young adults, in favor of the young; and between cohabitated and married adults, married being advantageous. A significant difference in subjective well-being measures was also noticed among single, cohabitated and married adults, in favor of the married adults in all measures. The finding revealed that happiness level of adults decrease as their educational status increases while the reverse is true to psychological well-being. Besides, as adults’ household income boosts, so do their psychological well-being and satisfaction in life. The regression analysis also produced significant independent contributions of household income to overall well-being of adults. As such, subjective well-being was significantly predicted by dummy variable of sex and marital status. Likewise, the agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness dimensions of personality were notable significant predictors of adults’ psychological well-being where as extraversion and agreeableness were significant predictors of their subjective well-being. Religiosity was also a significant predictor of adults’ psychological well-being. Besides, adults’ well-being was significantly predicted by the interaction between conscientiousness and religiosity. From goal pursuit dimensions, attainment of extrinsic life goals was a significant predictor of both psychological and subjective well-being. Importance and attainment of intrinsic life goals also significantly predicts adults’ psychological well-being. Finally, the subjective well-being of adults was significantly predicted by environmental mastery, positive relations with others, self-acceptance and overall psychological well-being scores of adults. The thematic analysis identified five major categories of themes, which are essential in explaining the psychological well-being of Ethiopian adults. These were; socio-cultural harmony, social cohesion, security, competence and accomplishment, and the self. Detailed discussion on the rational for including these themes was made and appropriate implications were proposed. Researchers are encouraged to expand the findings of this research and in turn develop a suitable approach taping the psychological well-being of adults living in countries like Ethiopia.

Keywords: psychological well-being, subjective well-being, adulthood, Ethiopia

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Authors: Sayyed Mostafa Ahmadi, Neda Raeesi

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Background and Objectives: Cervical spondylosis is a common problem that affects the adult spine and is the most common cause of radiculopathy and myelopathy in older patients. Anterior discectomy and fusion is a well-known technique in degenerative cervical disc disease. However, one of the late undesirable complications is adjacent disc degeneration, which affects about 91% of patients in ten years. Many factors can be effective in causing this complication, but some are still debatable. Discovering these risk factors and eliminating them can improve the quality of life. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. All patients who underwent anterior discectomy and fusion surgery in the neurosurgery ward of Imam Khomeini Hospital between 2013 and 2016 were evaluated. Their demographic information was collected. All patients were visited and examined for radiculopathy, myelopathy, and muscular force. At the same visit, all patients were asked to have a facelift, and neck profile, as well as a neck MRI(General Tesla 3). Preoperative graphs were used to measure the diameter of the cervical canal(Pavlov ratio) and to evaluate sagittal alignment(Cobb Angle). Preoperative MRI of patients was reviewed for anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Result: In this study, 57 patients were studied. The mean age of patients was 50.63 years, and 49.1% were male. Only 3.5% of patients had anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Symptomatic ASD was observed in 26.6%. The X-rays and MRIs showed evidence of 80.7% radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent one-level surgery, 20% had symptomatic ASD, but among patients who underwent two-level surgery, the rate of ASD was 50%.In other words, the higher the number of surfaces that are operated and fused, the higher the probability of symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). The X-rays and MRIs showed 80.7% of radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent surgery at one level, 78% had radiological ASD, and this number was 92% among patients who underwent two-level surgery(P-value> 0.05). Demographic variables such as age, sex, height, weight, and BMI did not have a significant effect on the incidence of radiological ASD(P-value> 0.05), but sex and height were two influential factors on symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). Other related variables such as family history, smoking and exercise also have no significant effect(P-value> 0.05). Radiographic variables such as Pavlov ratio and sagittal alignment were also unaffected by the incidence of radiological and symptomatic ASD(P-value> 0.05). The number of surgical surfaces and the incidence of anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification before surgery also had no statistically significant effect(P-value> 0.05). In the study of the ability of the neck to move in different directions, none of these variables are statistically significant in the two groups with radiological and symptomatic ASD and the non-affected group(P-value> 0.05). Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, this disease is considered to be a multifactorial disease. The incidence of radiological ASD is much higher than symptomatic ASD (80.7% vs. 26.3%) and sex, height and number of fused surfaces are the only factors influencing the incidence of symptomatic ASD and no variable influences radiological ASD.

Keywords: risk factors, anterior neck disectomy and fusion, adjucent segment degeneration, complication

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Authors: Sachin B. Patil, Narendra M. Kanhe

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A typical cane molasses based distillery generates 15 L of waste water per liter of alcohol production. Distillery waste with COD of over 1,00,000 mg/l and BOD of over 30,000 mg/l ranks high amongst the pollutants produced by industries both in magnitude and strength. Treatment and safe disposal of this waste is a challenging task since long. The high strength of waste water renders aerobic treatment very expensive and physico-chemical processes have met with little success. Thermophilic anaerobic treatment of distillery waste may provide high degree of treatment and better recovery of biogas. It may prove more feasible in most part of tropical country like India, where temperature is suitable for thermophilic micro-organisms. Researchers have reviled that, at thermophilic conditions due to increased destruction rate of organic matter and pathogens, higher digestion rate can be achieved. Literature review reveals that the variety of anaerobic reactors including anaerobic lagoon, conventional digester, anaerobic filter, two staged fixed film reactors, sludge bed and granular bed reactors have been studied, but little attempts have been made to evaluate the usefulness of thermophilic anaerobic treatment for treating distillery waste. The present study has been carried out, to study feasibility of thermophilic anaerobic digestion to facilitate the design of full scale reactor. A pilot scale anaerobic fixed film fixed bed reactor (AFFFB) of capacity 25m3 was designed, fabricated, installed and commissioned for thermophilic (55-65°C) anaerobic digestion at a constant pH of 6.5-7.5, because these temperature and pH ranges are considered to be optimum for biogas recovery from distillery wastewater. In these conditions, working of the reactor was studied, for different hydraulic retention times (HRT) (0.25days to 12days) and variable organic loading rates (361.46 to 7.96 Kg COD/m3d). The parameters such as flow rate and temperature, various chemical parameters such as pH, chemical oxygen demands (COD), biogas quantity, and biogas composition were regularly monitored. It was observed that, with the increase in OLR, the biogas production was increased, but the specific biogas yield decreased. Similarly, with the increase in HRT, the biogas production got decrease, but the specific biogas yield was increased. This may also be due to the predominant activity of acid producers to methane producers at the higher substrate loading rates. From the present investigation, it can be concluded that for thermophilic conditions the highest COD removal percentage was obtained at an HRT of 08 days, thereafter it tends to decrease from 8 to 12 days HRT. There is a little difference between COD removal efficiency of 8 days HRT (74.03%) and 5 day HRT (78.06%), therefore it would not be feasible to increase the reactor size by 1.5 times for mere 4 percent more efficiency. Hence, 5 days HRT is considered to be optimum, at which the biogas yield was 98 m3/day and specific biogas yield was 0.385 CH4 m3/Kg CODr.

Keywords: spent wash, anaerobic digestion, biomass, biogas

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Authors: Antonio Ruiz Gonzalez, Kwang-Leong Choy

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The measurement of electrolytes has a high value in the clinical routine. Ions are present in all body fluids with variable concentrations and are involved in multiple pathologies such as heart failures and chronic kidney disease. In the case of dissolved potassium, although a high concentration in the blood (hyperkalemia) is relatively uncommon in the general population, it is one of the most frequent acute electrolyte abnormalities. In recent years, the integration of thin films technologies in this field has allowed the development of highly sensitive biosensors with ultra-low limits of detection for the assessment of metals in liquid samples. However, despite the current efforts in the miniaturization of sensitive devices and their integration into portable systems, only a limited number of successful examples used commercially can be found. This fact can be attributed to a high cost involved in their production and the sustained degradation of the electrodes over time, which causes a signal drift in the measurements. Thus, there is an unmet necessity for the development of low-cost and robust sensors for the real-time monitoring of analyte concentrations in patients to allow the early detection and diagnosis of diseases. This paper reports a thin film ion-selective sensor for the evaluation of potassium ions in aqueous samples. As an alternative for this fabrication method, aerosol assisted chemical vapor deposition (AACVD), was applied due to cost-effectivity and fine control over the film deposition. Such a technique does not require vacuum and is suitable for the coating of large surface areas and structures with complex geometries. This approach allowed the fabrication of highly homogeneous surfaces with well-defined microstructures onto 50 nm thin gold layers. The degradative processes of the ubiquitously employed poly (vinyl chloride) membranes in contact with an electrolyte solution were studied, including the polymer leaching process, mechanical desorption of nanoparticles and chemical degradation over time. Rational design of a protective coating based on an organosilicon material in combination with cellulose to improve the long-term stability of the sensors was then carried out, showing an improvement in the performance after 5 weeks. The antifouling properties of such coating were assessed using a cutting-edge quartz microbalance sensor, allowing the quantification of the adsorbed proteins in the nanogram range. A correlation between the microstructural properties of the films with the surface energy and biomolecules adhesion was then found and used to optimize the protective film.

Keywords: hyperkalemia, drift, AACVD, organosilicon

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Authors: Chandanee Wasana Kalansooriya

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Dietary behaviour is a crucial factor affecting diabetes control. With increasing rates of diabetes prevalence in Asian countries, examining their dietary patterns, which are largely based on rice, is timely required. It has been identified that higher consumption of some rice varieties is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Although diabetes patients are advised to consume healthier rice varieties, which contains low glycemic, several conditions, one of which food insecurity, make them difficult to preserve those healthy dietary guidelines. Hence this study tries to investigate how food security affects on making right decisions of rice consumption within diabetes affected households using a sample from Sri Lanka, a country which rice considered as the staple food and records the highest diabetes prevalence rate in South Asia. The study uses data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016, a nationally representative sample conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka. The survey used a two-stage stratified sampling method to cover different sectors and districts of the country and collected micro-data on demographics, health, income and expenditures of different categories. The study uses data from 2547 households which consist of one or more diabetes patients, based on the self-recorded health status. The Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), which constructed based on twelve food groups, is used to measure the level of food security. Rice is categorized into three groups according to their Glycemic Index (GI), high GI, medium GI and low GI, and the likelihood and impact made by food security on each rice consumption categories are estimated using a Two-part Model. The shares of each rice categories out of total rice consumption is considered as the dependent variable to exclude the endogeneity issue between rice consumption and the HDDS. The results indicate that the consumption of medium GI rice is likely to increase with the increasing household food security, but low GI varieties are not. Households in rural and estate sectors are less likely and Tamil ethnic group is more likely to consume low GI rice varieties. Further, an increase in food security significantly decreases the consumption share of low GI rice, while it increases the share of medium GI varieties. The consumption share of low GI rice is largely affected by the ethnic variability. The effects of food security on the likelihood of consuming high GI rice varieties and changing its shares are statistically insignificant. Accordingly, the study concludes that a higher level of food security does not ensure diabetes patients are consuming healthy rice varieties or reducing consumption of unhealthy varieties. Hence policy attention must be directed towards educating people for making healthy dietary choices. Further, the study provides a room for further studies as it reveals considerable ethnic and sectorial differences in making healthy dietary decisions.

Keywords: diabetes, food security, glycemic index, rice consumption

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Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

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En -Naga sub - basin considered to be the most southern of the concessions in the Sirte Basin operated by HOO. En Naga Sub – basin have likely been point-sourced of CO₂ accumulations during the last 7 million years from local satellite intrusives associated with the Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. CO2 occurs in the En Naga Sub-basin as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex.Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface are exposed at the surface. The lower cretaceous Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin. They result from the influence of paleotopography on the processes associated with continental deposition over the Sirt Unconformity and the Cenomanian marine transgression In the Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstones, the presence of trapped carbon dioxide is proven within the En Naga Sub-basin. This makes it unique in providing an abundance of CO₂ gas reservoirs with almost pure magmatic CO₂, which can be easily sampled. Huge amounts of CO2 exist in the Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstones in the En-Naga sub-basin, where the economic value of CO₂ is related to its use for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) Based on the production tests for the drilled wells that makes Lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstones the principle reservoir rocks for CO2 where large volumes of CO2 gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136(En -Naga sub basin). The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock. Intergranular porosities and permeabilities are highly variable and can exceed 25% and 100 MD. In the (En Naga sub – basin), three main developed structures (Barrut I, En Naga A and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone reservoir. These structures represents a good example for the deep over pressure potential in (En Naga sub - basin). The very high pressures assumed associated with local igneous intrusives may account for the abnormally high Bahi (and Lidam) reservoir pressures. The best gas tests from this facies are at F1-72 on the (Barrut I structure) from part of a 458 feet+ section having an estimated high value of CO2 as 98% overpressured. Bahi CO) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co₂ generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas where At U1-72 (En Naga O structure) a significant CO2 gas kick occurred at 11,971 feet and quickly led to blowout conditions due to uncontrollable leaks in the surface equipment. Which reflects a better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co₂ generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir prospectivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves although there are positive indications that they are very large.

Keywords: 1) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co2 generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir

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Authors: E. Nakamachi, S. Tanaka, K. Yamamoto, Y. Morita

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In this study, we developed a three-dimensional (3D) direct current electric field (DCEF) stimulation bio-reactor for axonal outgrowth enhancement to generate the neural network of the central nervous system (CNS). By using our newly developed 3D DCEF stimulation bio-reactor, we cultured the rat pheochromocytoma cells (PC12) and investigated the effects on the axonal extension enhancement and network generation. Firstly, we designed and fabricated a 3D bio-reactor, which can load DCEF stimulation on PC12 cells embedded in the collagen gel as extracellular environment. The connection between the electrolyte and the medium using salt bridges for DCEF stimulation was introduced to avoid the cell death by the toxicity of metal ion. The distance between the salt bridges was adopted as the design variable to optimize a structure for uniform DCEF stimulation, where the finite element (FE) analyses results were used. Uniform DCEF strength and electric flux vector direction in the PC12 cells embedded in collagen gel were examined through measurements of the fabricated 3D bio-reactor chamber. Measurement results of DCEF strength in the bio-reactor showed a good agreement with FE results. In addition, the perfusion system was attached to maintain pH 7.2 ~ 7.6 of the medium because pH change was caused by DCEF stimulation loading. Secondly, we disseminated PC12 cells in collagen gel and carried out 3D culture. Finally, we measured the morphology of PC12 cell bodies and neurites by the multiphoton excitation fluorescence microscope (MPM). The effectiveness of DCEF stimulation to enhance the axonal outgrowth and the neural network generation was investigated. We confirmed that both an increase of mean axonal length and axogenesis rate of PC12, which have been exposed 5 mV/mm for 6 hours a day for 4 days in the bioreactor. We found following conclusions in our study. 1) Design and fabrication of DCEF stimulation bio-reactor capable of 3D culture nerve cell were completed. A uniform electric field strength of average value of 17 mV/mm within the 1.2% error range was confirmed by using FE analyses, after the structure determination through the optimization process. In addition, we attached a perfusion system capable of suppressing the pH change of the culture solution due to DCEF stimulation loading. 2) Evaluation of DCEF stimulation effects on PC12 cell activity was executed. The 3D culture of PC 12 was carried out adopting the embedding culture method using collagen gel as a scaffold for four days under the condition of 5.0 mV/mm and 10mV/mm. There was a significant effect on the enhancement of axonal extension, as 11.3% increase in an average length, and the increase of axogenesis rate. On the other hand, no effects on the orientation of axon against the DCEF flux direction was observed. Further, the network generation was enhanced to connect longer distance between the target neighbor cells by DCEF stimulation.

Keywords: PC12, DCEF stimulation, 3D bio-reactor, axonal extension, neural network generation

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Authors: Santos Maza, Enzo Aldoradin, Carlos Pariona, Eliud Arpi, Maria Rosales

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The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of flaying then bleeding anchovy (Engraulis ringens) immersed within a sodium citrate solution. Anchovy is a pelagic fish that readily deteriorates due to its high content of polyunsaturated fatty acids. As such, within the Peruvian food industry, the shelf life of frozen anchovy is explicitly 6 months, this short duration imparts a barrier to use for direct consumption human. Thus, almost all capture of anchovy by the fishing industry is eventually used in the production of fishmeal. We offer this an alternative to its typical production process in order to increase shelf life. In the present study, 100 kg of anchovies were captured and immediately mixed with ice on ship, maintaining a high quality sensory metric (e.g., with color blue in back) while still arriving for processing less than 2 h after capture. Anchovies with fat content of 3% were immediately flayed (i.e., reducing subcutaneous fat), beheaded, gutted and bled (i.e., removing hemoglobin) by immersion in water (Control) or in a solution of 2.5% sodium citrate (treatment), then subsequently frozen at -30 °C for 8 h in 2 kg batches. Subsequent glazing and storage at -25 °C for 14 months completed the experiments parameters. The peroxide value (PV), acidity (A), fatty acid profile (FAP), thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), heme iron (HI), pH and sensory attributes of the samples were evaluated monthly. The results of the PV, TBARS, A, pH and sensory analyses displayed significant differences (p<0.05) between treatment and control sample; where the sodium citrate treated samples showed increased preservation features. Specifically, at the beginning of the study, flayed, beheaded, gutted and bled anchovies displayed low content of fat (1.5%) with moderate amount of PV, A and TBARS, and were not rejected by sensory analysis. HI values and FAP displayed varying behavior, however, results of HI did not reveal a decreasing trend. This result is indicative of the fact that levels of iron were maintained as HI and did not convert into no heme iron, which is known to be the primary catalyst of lipid oxidation in fish. According to the FAP results, the major quantity of fatty acid was of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PFA) followed by saturated fatty acid (SFA) and then monounsaturated fatty acid (MFA). According to sensory analysis, the shelf life of flayed, beheaded and gutted anchovy (control and treatment) was 14 months. This shelf life was reached at laboratory level because high quality anchovies were used and immediately flayed, beheaded, gutted, bled and frozen. Therefore, it is possible to maintain the shelf life of anchovies for a long time. Overall, this method displayed a large increase in shelf life relative to that commonly seen for anchovies in this industry. However, these results should be extrapolated at industrial scales to propose better processing conditions and improve the quality of anchovy for direct human consumption.

Keywords: citrate sodium solution, heme iron, polyunsaturated fatty acids, shelf life of frozen anchovy

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Authors: Amer Ait Sidhoum

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Interest in sustainability has gained ground among practitioners, academics and policy-makers due to growing stakeholders’ awareness of environmental and social concerns. This is particularly true for agriculture. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the quantification of social sustainability and the contribution of social issues to the agricultural production efficiency. This research's main objective is to propose a method for evaluating prices of social outputs, more precisely shadow prices, by allowing for the stochastic nature of agricultural production that is to say for production uncertainty. In this article, the assessment of social outputs’ shadow prices is conducted within the methodological framework of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). An output-oriented directional distance function (DDF) is implemented to represent the technology of a sample of Catalan arable crop farms and derive the efficiency scores the overall production technology of our sample is assumed to be the intersection of two different sub-technologies. The first sub-technology models the production of random desirable agricultural outputs, while the second sub-technology reflects the social outcomes from agricultural activities. Once a nonparametric production technology has been represented, the DDF primal approach can be used for efficiency measurement, while shadow prices are drawn from the dual representation of the DDF. Computing shadow prices is a method to assign an economic value to non-marketed social outcomes. Our research uses cross sectional, farm-level data collected in 2015 from a sample of 180 Catalan arable crop farms specialized in the production of cereals, oilseeds and protein (COP) crops. Our results suggest that our sample farms show high performance scores, from 85% for the bad state of nature to 88% for the normal and ideal crop growing conditions. This suggests that farm performance is increasing with an improvement in crop growth conditions. Results also show that average shadow prices of desirable state-contingent output and social outcomes for efficient and inefficient farms are positive, suggesting that the production of desirable marketable outputs and of non-marketable outputs makes a positive contribution to the farm production efficiency. Results also indicate that social outputs’ shadow prices are contingent upon the growing conditions. The shadow prices follow an upward trend as crop-growing conditions improve. This finding suggests that these efficient farms prefer to allocate more resources in the production of desirable outputs than of social outcomes. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to compute shadow prices of social outcomes while accounting for the stochastic nature of the production technology. Our findings suggest that the decision-making process of the efficient farms in dealing with social issues are stochastic and strongly dependent on the growth conditions. This implies that policy-makers should adjust their instruments according to the stochastic environmental conditions. An optimal redistribution of rural development support, by increasing the public payment with the improvement in crop growth conditions, would likely enhance the effectiveness of public policies.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, shadow prices, social sustainability, sustainable farming

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Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

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Authors: Katerina Antoniou

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When examining conflicts around the world, it is evident that the majority of intractable conflicts are steeped in identity. Identity seems to be not only a causal variable for conflict, but also a catalytic parameter for the process of reconciliation that follows ceasefire. This paper focuses on the process of identity securitization that occurs between rival groups of heterogeneous collective identities – ethnic, national or religious – as well as on the relationship between identity securitization and the ability of the groups involved to reconcile. Are securitized identities obstacles to the process of reconciliation, able to hinder any prospects of peace? If the level to which an identity is securitized is catalytic to a conflict’s discourse and settlement, then which factors act as indicators of identity de-securitization? The level of an in-group’s identity securitization can be estimated through a number of indicators, one of which is narrative. The stories, views and stances each in-group adopts in relation to its history of conflict and relation with their rival out-group can clarify whether that specific in-group feels victimized and threatened or safe and ready to reconcile. Accordingly, this study discusses identity securitization through narrative in relation to intractable conflicts. Are there conflicts around the world that, despite having been identified as intractable, stagnated or insoluble, show signs of identity de-securitization through narrative? This inquiry uses the case of the Cyprus conflict and its partitioned societies to present official narratives from the two communities and assess whether these narratives have transformed, indicating a less securitized in-group identity for the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Specifically, the study compares the official historical overviews presented by each community’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website and discusses the extent to which the two official narratives present a securitized collective identity. In addition, the study will observe whether official stances by the two communities – as adopted by community leaders – have transformed to depict less securitization over time. Additionally, the leaders’ reflection of popular opinion is evaluated through recent opinion polls from each community. Cyprus is currently experiencing renewed optimism for reunification, with the leaders of its two communities engaging in rigorous negotiations, and with rumors calling for a potential referendum for reunification to be taking place even as early as within 2016. Although leaders’ have shown a shift in their rhetoric and have moved away from narratives of victimization, this is not the case for the official narratives used by their respective ministries of foreign affairs. The study’s findings explore whether this narrative inconsistency proves that Cyprus is transitioning towards reunification, or whether the leaders are risking sending a securitized population to the polls to reject a potential reunification. More broadly, this study suggests that in the event that intractable conflicts might be moving towards viable peace, in-group narratives--official narratives in particular--can act as indicators of the extent to which rival entities have managed to reconcile.

Keywords: conflict, identity, narrative, reconciliation

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Authors: Mao Zhaofang, Xu Yida, Fang Kan, Fu Enyuan, Zhao Zhao

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Nowadays, last-mile distribution plays an increasingly important role in the whole industrial chain delivery link and accounts for a large proportion of the whole distribution process cost. Promoting the upgrading of logistics networks and improving the layout of final distribution points has become one of the trends in the development of modern logistics. Due to the discrete and heterogeneous needs and spatial distribution of customer demand, which will lead to a higher delivery failure rate and lower vehicle utilization, last-mile delivery has become a time-consuming and uncertain process. As a result, courier companies have introduced a range of innovative parcel storage facilities, including pick-up points and lockers. The introduction of pick-up points and lockers has not only improved the users’ experience but has also helped logistics and courier companies achieve large-scale economy. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 of the previous period, contactless delivery has become a new hotspot, which has also created new opportunities for the development of collection services. Therefore, a key issue for logistics companies is how to design/redesign their last-mile distribution network systems to create integrated logistics and distribution networks that consider pick-up points and lockers. This paper focuses on the introduction of self-pickup facilities in new logistics and distribution scenarios and the heterogeneous demands of customers. In this paper, we consider two types of demand, including ordinary products and refrigerated products, as well as corresponding transportation vehicles. We consider the constraints associated with self-pickup points and lockers and then address the location-routing problem with self-pickup facilities and heterogeneous demands (LRP-PFHD). To solve this challenging problem, we propose a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that aims to minimize the total cost, which includes the facility opening cost, the variable transport cost, and the fixed transport cost. Due to the NP-hardness of the problem, we propose a hybrid adaptive large-neighbourhood search algorithm to solve LRP-PFHD. We evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm by using instances generated based on benchmark instances. The results demonstrate that the hybrid adaptive large neighbourhood search algorithm is more efficient than MILP solvers such as Gurobi for LRP-PFHD, especially for large-scale instances. In addition, we made a comprehensive analysis of some important parameters (e.g., facility opening cost and transportation cost) to explore their impacts on the results and suggested helpful managerial insights for courier companies.

Keywords: city logistics, last-mile delivery, location-routing, adaptive large neighborhood search

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Authors: Kalaya Sribuddhachart, Mayuree Pumipaiboon, Mayuva Youngsabanant-Areekijseree

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The ultrastructure of 20 species of pheasant eggshells in Thailand, (Simese Fireback, Lophura diardi), (Silver Pheasant, Lophura nycthemera), (Kalij Pheasant, Lophura leucomelanos crawfurdii), (Kalij Pheasant, Lophura leucomelanos lineata), (Red Junglefowl, Gallus gallus spadiceus), (Crested Fireback, Lophura ignita rufa), (Green Peafowl, Pavo muticus), (Indian Peafowl, Pavo cristatus), (Grey Peacock Pheasant, Polyplectron bicalcaratum bicalcaratum), (Lesser Bornean Fireback, Lophura ignita ignita), (Green Junglefowl, Gallus varius), (Hume's Pheasant, Syrmaticus humiae humiae), (Himalayan Monal, Lophophorus impejanus), Golden Pheasant, Chrysolophus pictus, (Ring-Neck Pheasant, Phasianus sp.), (Reeves’s Pheasant, Syrmaticus reevesi), (Polish Chicken, Gallus sp.), (Brahma Chicken, Gallus sp.), (Yellow Golden Pheasant, Chrysolophus pictus luteus), and (Lady Amhersts Pheasant, Chrysolophus amherstiae) were studied by Secondary electron imaging (SEI) and Energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX) detectors of scanning electron microscope. Generally, all pheasant eggshells showed 3 layers of cuticle, palisade, and mammillary. The total thickness was ranging from 190.28±5.94-838.96±16.31µm. The palisade layer is the most thickness layer following by mammillary and cuticle layers. The palisade layer in all pheasant eggshells consisted of numerous vesicle holes that were firmly forming as network thorough the layer. The vesicle holes in all pheasant eggshells had difference porosity ranging from 0.44±0.11-0.23±0.05 µm. While the mammillary layer was the most compact layer with a variable shape (broad-base V and U-shape) connect to shell membrane. Elemental analysis by of 20 specie eggshells showed 9 apparent elements including carbon (C), oxygen (O), calcium (Ca), phosphorous (P), sulfur (S), magnesium (Mg), silicon (Si), aluminum (Al), and copper (Cu) at the percentage of 28.90- 8.33%, 60.64-27.61%, 55.30-14.49%, 1.97-0.03%, 0.08-0.03%, 0.50-0.16%, 0.30-0.04%, 0.06-0.02%, and 2.67-1.73%, respectively. It was found that Ca, C, and O showed highest elemental compositions, which essential for pheasant embryonic development, mainly presented as composited structure of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) more than 97%. Meanwhile, Mg, S, Si, Al, and P were major inorganic constituents of the eggshells which directly related to an increase of the shell hardness. Finally, the percentage of heavy metal copper (Cu) has been observed in 4 eggshell species. There are Golden Pheasant (2.67±0.16%), Indian Peafowl (2.61±0.13%), Green Peafowl (1.97±0.74%), and Silver Pheasant (1.73±0.11%), respectively. A non-significant difference was found in the percentages of 9 elements in all pheasant eggshells. This study is useful to provide the information of biology and taxonomic of pheasant study in Thailand for conservation.

Keywords: pheasants eggshells, secondary electron imaging (SEI) and energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), morphology, Thailand

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Authors: Ferzat Anka

Abstract:

Many types of problems can be solved using traditional analytical methods. However, these methods take a long time and cause inefficient use of resources. In particular, different approaches may be required in solving complex and global engineering problems that we frequently encounter in real life. The bigger and more complex a problem, the harder it is to solve. Such problems are called Nondeterministic Polynomial time (NP-hard) in the literature. The main reasons for recommending different metaheuristic algorithms for various problems are the use of simple concepts, the use of simple mathematical equations and structures, the use of non-derivative mechanisms, the avoidance of local optima, and their fast convergence. They are also flexible, as they can be applied to different problems without very specific modifications. Thanks to these features, it can be easily embedded even in many hardware devices. Accordingly, this approach can also be used in trend application areas such as IoT, big data, and parallel structures. Indeed, the metaheuristic approaches are algorithms that return near-optimal results for solving large-scale optimization problems. This study is focused on the new metaheuristic method that has been merged with the chaotic approach. It is based on the chaos theorem and helps relevant algorithms to improve the diversity of the population and fast convergence. This approach is based on Chimp Optimization Algorithm (ChOA), that is a recently introduced metaheuristic algorithm inspired by nature. This algorithm identified four types of chimpanzee groups: attacker, barrier, chaser, and driver, and proposed a suitable mathematical model for them based on the various intelligence and sexual motivations of chimpanzees. However, this algorithm is not more successful in the convergence rate and escaping of the local optimum trap in solving high-dimensional problems. Although it and some of its variants use some strategies to overcome these problems, it is observed that it is not sufficient. Therefore, in this study, a newly expanded variant is described. In the algorithm called Ex-ChOA, hybrid models are proposed for position updates of search agents, and a dynamic switching mechanism is provided for transition phases. This flexible structure solves the slow convergence problem of ChOA and improves its accuracy in multidimensional problems. Therefore, it tries to achieve success in solving global, complex, and constrained problems. The main contribution of this study is 1) It improves the accuracy and solves the slow convergence problem of the ChOA. 2) It proposes new hybrid movement strategy models for position updates of search agents. 3) It provides success in solving global, complex, and constrained problems. 4) It provides a dynamic switching mechanism between phases. The performance of the Ex-ChOA algorithm is analyzed on a total of 8 benchmark functions, as well as a total of 2 classical and constrained engineering problems. The proposed algorithm is compared with the ChoA, and several well-known variants (Weighted-ChoA, Enhanced-ChoA) are used. In addition, an Improved algorithm from the Grey Wolf Optimizer (I-GWO) method is chosen for comparison since the working model is similar. The obtained results depict that the proposed algorithm performs better or equivalently to the compared algorithms.

Keywords: optimization, metaheuristic, chimp optimization algorithm, engineering constrained problems

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Authors: Szerena Vajkovszki

Abstract:

Among the relatively large volume of literature, the role and perception of women in Buddhism have been examined from various perspectives such as theology, history, anthropology, and feminism. When Buddhism spread to the West, women had a major role in its adaption and development. The meeting of different cultures and social structures had the fruit of a necessity to change. As Buddhism gained attention in the West, it produced a Buddhist feminist identity across national and ethnic boundaries. So globalization produced a contemporary cross-cultural Buddhist Women. The aim of the research is to find out the new role of such a Buddhist woman in aging societies. More precisely to understand what effect this contemporary Buddhist religion may have, direct or indirect, on fertility. Our worldwide aging society, especially in developed countries, including members of EU, raise sophisticated sociological and economic issues and challenges to be met. As declining fertility has outstanding influence underlying this trend, numerous studies have attempted to identify, describe, measure and interpret contributing factors of the fertility rate, out of which relatively few revealed the impact of religion. Among many religious guidelines, we can separate two major categories: direct and indirect. The aim of this research was to understand what are the most crucial identified (family values, gender related behaviors, religious sentiments) and not yet identified most influential contributing contemporary Buddhist religious factors. Above identifying these direct or indirect factors, it is also important to understand to what extent and how do they influence fertility, which requires a wider (inter-discipline) perspective. As proved by previous studies religion has also an influential role in health, mental state, well-being, working activity and many other components that are also related to fertility rates. All these components are inter-related, hence direct and indirect religious effects can only be well understood, if we figure out all necessary fields and their interaction. With the help of semi-structured opened interviews taking place in different countries, it was showed that indeed Buddhism has significant direct and indirect effect on fertility, hence the initial hypothesis was proved. However, the interviews showed an overall positive effect, the results could only serve for a general understanding about how Buddhism affects fertility. Evolution of Buddhism’s direct and indirect influence may vary in different nations and circumstances according to their specific environmental attributes. According to the local patterns, with special regard to women’s position and role in the society, outstandingly indirect influences could show diversifications. So it is advisory to investigate more for a deeper and clearer understanding of how Buddhism function in different socioeconomic circumstances. For example, in Hungary after the period of secularization more and more people tended to be attracted toward some transcendent values which could be an explanation for the rising number of Buddhists in the country. The present research could serve as a general starting point or a common basis for further specific national investigations how contemporary Buddhism affects fertility.

Keywords: contemporary Buddhism, cross-cultural woman, fertility, gender roles, religion

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Authors: Justyna P. Majewska, Szymon M. Truskolaski

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The growing importance of digitalized services in the so-called new economy, including the e-sports industry, can be observed recently. Various demographic or technological changes lead consumers to modify their needs, not regarding the services themselves but the method of their application (attracting customers, forms of payment, new content, etc.). In the case of leisure-related to competitive spectating activities, there is a growing need to participate in events whose content is not sports competitions but computer games challenge – e-sport. The literature in this area so far focuses on determining the number of e-sport fans with elements of a simple statistical description (mainly concerning demographic characteristics such as age, gender, place of residence). Meanwhile, the development of the industry is influenced by a combination of many different, intertwined demographic, personality and psychosocial characteristics of customers, as well as the characteristics of their environment. Therefore, there is a need for a deeper recognition of the determinants of the behavioral patterns upon selecting digitalized services by customers, which, in the absence of available large data sets, can be achieved by using econometric simulations – multi-agent modeling. The cognitive aim of the study is to reveal internal and external determinants of behavioral patterns of customers taking into account various variants of economic development (the pace of digitization and technological development, socio-demographic changes, etc.). In the paper, an agent-based model with heterogeneous agents (characteristics of customers themselves and their environment) was developed, which allowed identifying a three-stage development scenario: i) initial interest, ii) standardization, and iii) full professionalization. The probabilities regarding the transition process were estimated using the Method of Simulated Moments. The estimation of the agent-based model parameters and sensitivity analysis reveals crucial factors that have driven a rising trend in e-sport spectating and, in a wider perspective, the development of digitalized services. Among the psychosocial characteristics of customers, they are the level of familiarization with the rules of games as well as sports disciplines, active and passive participation history and individual perception of challenging activities. Environmental factors include general reception of games, number and level of recognition of community builders and the level of technological development of streaming as well as community building platforms. However, the crucial factor underlying the good predictive power of the model is the level of professionalization. While in the initial interest phase, the entry barriers for new customers are high. They decrease during the phase of standardization and increase again in the phase of full professionalization when new customers perceive participation history inaccessible. In this case, they are prone to switch to new methods of service application – in the case of e-sport vs. sports to new content and more modern methods of its delivery. In a wider context, the findings in the paper support the idea of a life cycle of services regarding methods of their application from “traditional” to digitalized.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, digitalized services, e-sport, spectators motives

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Authors: Sebastian Hiergeist

Abstract:

It is a common view that Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) tend to migrate into the civil airspace. This trend is challenging UAV manufacturer in plenty ways, as there come up a lot of new requirements and functional aspects. On the higher application levels, this might be collision detection and avoidance and similar features, whereas all these functions only act as input for the flight control components of the aircraft. The flight control computer (FCC) is the central component when it comes up to ensure a continuous safe flight and landing. As these systems are flight critical, they have to be built up redundantly to be able to provide a Fail-Operational behavior. Recent architectural approaches of FCCs used in UAV systems are often based on very simple microprocessors in combination with proprietary Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) or Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) extensions implementing the whole redundancy functionality. In the future, such simple microprocessors may not be available anymore as they are more and more replaced by higher sophisticated System on Chip (SoC). As the avionic industry cannot provide enough market power to significantly influence the development of new semiconductor products, the use of solutions from foreign markets is almost inevitable. Products stemming from the industrial market developed according to IEC 61508, or automotive SoCs, according to ISO 26262, can be seen as candidates as they have been developed for similar environments. Current available SoC from the industrial or automotive sector provides quite a broad selection of interfaces like, i.e., Ethernet, SPI or FlexRay, that might come into account for the implementation of a redundancy network. In this context, possible network architectures shall be investigated which could be established by using the interfaces stated above. Of importance here is the avoidance of any single point of failures, as well as a proper segregation in distinct fault containment regions. The performed analysis is supported by the use of guidelines, published by the aviation authorities (FAA and EASA), on the reliability of data networks. The main focus clearly lies on the reachable level of safety, but also other aspects like performance and determinism play an important role and are considered in the research. Due to the further increase in design complexity of recent and future SoCs, also the risk of design errors, which might lead to common mode faults, increases. Thus in the context of this work also the aspect of dissimilarity will be considered to limit the effect of design errors. To achieve this, the work is limited to broadly available interfaces available in products from the most common silicon manufacturer. The resulting work shall support the design of future UAV FCCs by giving a guideline on building up a redundancy network between SoCs, solely using on board interfaces. Therefore the author will provide a detailed usability analysis on available interfaces provided by recent SoC solutions, suggestions on possible redundancy architectures based on these interfaces and an assessment of the most relevant characteristics of the suggested network architectures, like e.g. safety or performance.

Keywords: redundancy, System-on-Chip, UAV, flight control computer (FCC)

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Authors: S. Maniruzzaman, N. Ramanujam, Qazi Akhter Rasool, Swapan Kumar Biswas, P. Prasad, Chandrakanta Ojha

Abstract:

Landslide is one of the major natural disasters in South Asian countries. Applying 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomographic Imaging estimation of geometry, thickness, and depth of failure zone of the landslide can be made. Landslide is a pertinent problem in Nilgris plateau next to Himalaya. Nilgris range consists of hard Archean metamorphic rocks. Intense weathering prevailed during the Pre-Cambrian time had deformed the rocks up to 45m depth. The landslides are dominant in the southern and eastern part of plateau of is comparatively smaller than the northern drainage basins, as it has low density of drainage; coarse texture permitted the more of infiltration of rainwater, whereas in the northern part of the plateau entombed with high density of drainage pattern and fine texture with less infiltration than run off, and low to the susceptible to landslide. To get comprehensive information about the landslide zone 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomographic imaging study with CRM 500 Resistivity meter are used in Coonoor– Mettupalyam sector of Nilgiris plateau. To calculate Factor of Safety the infinite slope model of Brunsden and Prior is used. Factor of Safety can be expressed (FS) as the ratio of resisting forces to disturbing forces. If FS < 1 disturbing forces are larger than resisting forces and failure may occur. The geotechnical parameters of soil samples are calculated on the basis upon the apparent resistivity values for litho units of measured from 2D ERT image of the landslide zone. Relationship between friction angles for various soil properties is established by simple regression analysis from apparent resistivity data. Increase of water content in slide zone reduces the effectiveness of the shearing resistance and increase the sliding movement. Time-lapse resistivity changes to slope failure is determined through geophysical Factor of Safety which depends on resistivity and site topography. This ERT technique infers soil property at variable depths in wider areas. This approach to retrieve the soil property and overcomes the limit of the point of information provided by rain gauges and porous probes. Monitoring of slope stability without altering soil structure through the ERT technique is non-invasive with low cost. In landslide prone area an automated Electrical Resistivity Tomographic Imaging system should be installed permanently with electrode networks to monitor the hydraulic precursors to monitor landslide movement.

Keywords: 2D ERT, landslide, safety factor, slope stability

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Authors: Geum Yeon Sim, Jasal Patel, Anand Kumthekar, Stanley Wainapel

Abstract:

A 65-year-old right-hand dominant African-American man, formerly employed as a security guard, was referred to Rehabilitation Medicine with bilateral hand stiffness and weakness. His past medical history was only significant for myelofibrosis, diagnosed 4 years earlier, for which he was receiving scheduled blood transfusions. Approximately 2 years ago, he began to notice stiffness and swelling in his non-dominant hand that progressed to pain and decreased strength, limiting his hand function. Similar but milder symptoms developed in his right hand several months later. There was no history of prior injury or exposure to cold. Physical examination showed enlargement of metacarpophalangeal (MCP) and proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints with finger flexion contractures, Swan-neck and Boutonniere deformities, and associated joint tenderness. Changes were more prominent in the left hand. X-rays showed mild osteoarthritis of several bilateral PIP joints. Anti-nuclear antibodies, rheumatoid factor, and cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies were negative. MRI of the hand showed no erosions or synovitis. A rheumatology consultation was obtained, and the cause of his symptoms was attributed to myelofibrosis-related arthropathy with secondary osteoarthritis. The patient was tried on diclofenac cream and received a few courses of Occupational Therapy with limited functional improvement. Primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is a rare myeloproliferative neoplasm characterized by clonal proliferation of myeloid cells with variable morphologic maturity and hematopoietic efficiency. Rheumatic manifestations of malignancies include direct invasion, paraneoplastic presentations, secondary gout, or hypertrophic osteoarthropathy. PMF causes gradual bone marrow fibrosis with extramedullary metaplastic hematopoiesis in the liver, spleen, or lymph nodes. Musculoskeletal symptoms are not common and are not well described in the literature. The first reported case of myelofibrosis related arthritis was seronegative arthritis due to synovial invasion of myeloproliferative elements. Myelofibrosis has been associated with autoimmune diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus, progressive systemic sclerosis, and rheumatoid arthritis. Gout has been reported in patients with myelofibrosis, and the underlying mechanism is thought to be related to the high turnover of nucleic acids that is greatly augmented in this disease. X-ray findings in these patients usually include erosive arthritis with synovitis. Treatment of underlying PMF is the treatment of choice, along with anti-inflammatory medications. Physicians should be cognizant of recognizing this rare entity in patients with PMF while maintaining clinical suspicion for more common causes of joint deformities, such as rheumatic diseases.

Keywords: myelofibrosis, arthritis, arthralgia, malignancy

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