Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: Hui-Min Lai, Chin-Pin Chen, Yung-Fu Chang

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The expectation-confirmation model (ECM) is one of the most widely used models for evaluating information system continuance, and this model has been extended to other study backgrounds, or expanded with other theoretical perspectives. However, combining ECM with other theories or investigating the background problem may produce some disparities, thus generating inaccurate conclusions. Habit is considered to be an important factor that influences the user’s continuance behavior. This paper thus critically examines seven pairs of relationships from the original ECM and the habit variable. A meta-analysis was used to tackle the development of ECM research over the last 10 years from a range of journals and conference papers published in 2005–2014. Forty-six journal articles and 19 conference papers were selected for analysis. The results confirm our prediction that a high effect size for the seven pairs of relationships was obtained (ranging from r=0.386 to r=0.588). Furthermore, a meta-analytic structural equation modeling was performed to simultaneously test all relationships. The results show that habit had a significant positive effect on continuance intention at p<=0.05 and that the six other pairs of relationships were significant at p<0.10. Based on the findings, we refined our original research model and an alternative model was proposed for understanding and predicting information system continuance. Some theoretical implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Expectation-confirmation theory, Expectation-confirmation model, Meta-analysis, meta-analytic structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Moshe Mello, Hilary Rutto, Tumisang Seodigeng

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The adsorptive ability of different carbon materials, tire char (TC), demineralized tire char (DTC), activated tire char (ATC) and Aldrich supplied commercial activated carbon (CAC) was studied for desulfurization of tire pyrolytic oil (TPO). TPO with an initial sulfur content of 7767.7 ppmw was used in this present study. Preparation of ATC was achieved by chemical treatment of raw TC using a potassium hydroxide (KOH) solution and subsequent activation at 800°C in the presence of nitrogen. The thermal behavior of TC, surface microstructure, and the surface functional groups of the carbon materials was investigated using TGA, SEM, and FTIR, respectively. Adsorptive desulfurization of TPO using the carbon materials was performed and they performed in the order of CAC>ATC>DTC>TC. Adsorption kinetics were studied, and pseudo-first order kinetic model displayed a better fit compared to pseudo-second order model. For isotherm studies, the Freundlich isotherm model fitted to the equilibrium data better than the Langmuir isotherm model.

Keywords: ATC, desulfurization, pyrolysis, tire, TPO

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Authors: Habib Muhammetoglu, I. Ethem Karadirek, Selami Kara, Ayse Muhammetoglu

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The problem of non-revenue water (NRW) from municipal water distribution networks is common in many countries such as Turkey, where the average yearly water losses are around 50% . Water losses can be divided into two major types namely: 1) Real or physical water losses, and 2) Apparent or commercial water losses. Total water losses in Antalya city, Turkey is around 45%. Methods: A research study was conducted to develop appropriate methodologies to reduce NRW. A pilot study area of about 60 thousands inhabitants was chosen to apply the study. The pilot study area has a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system for the monitoring and control of many water quantity and quality parameters at the groundwater drinking wells, pumping stations, distribution reservoirs, and along the water mains. The pilot study area was divided into 18 District Metered Areas (DMAs) with different number of service connections that ranged between a few connections to less than 3000 connections. The flow rate and water pressure to each DMA were on-line continuously measured by an accurate flow meter and water pressure meter that were connected to the SCADA system. Customer water meters were installed to all billed and unbilled water users. The monthly water consumption as given by the water meters were recorded regularly. Water balance was carried out for each DMA using the well-know standard IWA approach. There were considerable variations in the water losses percentages and the components of the water losses among the DMAs of the pilot study area. Old Class B customer water meters at one DMA were replaced by more accurate new Class C water meters. Hydraulic modelling using the US-EPA EPANET model was carried out in the pilot study area for the prediction of water pressure variations at each DMA. The data sets required to calibrate and verify the hydraulic model were supplied by the SCADA system. It was noticed that a number of the DMAs exhibited high water pressure values. Therefore, pressure reducing valves (PRV) with constant head were installed to reduce the pressure up to a suitable level that was determined by the hydraulic model. On the other hand, the hydraulic model revealed that the water pressure at the other DMAs cannot be reduced when complying with the minimum pressure requirement (3 bars) as stated by the related standards. Results: Physical water losses were reduced considerably as a result of just reducing water pressure. Further physical water losses reduction was achieved by applying acoustic methods. The results of the water balances helped in identifying the DMAs that have considerable physical losses. Many bursts were detected especially in the DMAs that have high physical water losses. The SCADA system was very useful to assess the efficiency level of this method and to check the quality of repairs. Regarding apparent water losses reduction, changing the customer water meters resulted in increasing water revenue by more than 20%. Conclusions: DMA, SCADA, modelling, pressure management, leakage detection and accurate customer water meters are efficient for NRW.

Keywords: NRW, water losses, pressure management, SCADA, apparent water losses, urban water distribution networks

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Authors: Shah Md. Imran Kabir, Md. Mostafa Ali

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Karnafuli is one of the most important rivers of Bangladesh which is playing a vital role in our national economy. The major sea port of Bangladesh is the Chittagong port located on the right bank of Karnafuli River Bangladesh. Karnafuli river port is considered as the lifeline of the economic activities of the country. Therefore, it is always necessary to keep the river active and live in terms of its navigability. Due to man-made intervention, the river flow becomes interrupted and thereby may cause the change in the river morphology. The specific objective of this study is the application of 2D model to assess different hydrodynamic and morphological characteristics of the river due to normal flow condition and sea level rise condition. The model has been set with the recent bathymetry data collected from CPA hydrography division. For model setup, the river reach is selected between Kalurghat and Khal no-18. Time series discharge and water level data are used as boundary condition at upstream and downstream. Calibration and validation have been carried out with the recent water level data at Khal no-10 and Sadarghat. The total reach length of the river has been divided into four parts to determine different hydrodynamic and morphological assessments like variation of velocity, sediment erosion and deposition and bed level changes also have been studied. This model has been used for the assessment of river response due sediment transport and sea level rise. Model result shows slight increase in velocity. It also changes the rate of erosion and deposition at some location of the selected reach. It is hoped that the result of the model simulation will be helpful to suggest the effect of possible future development work to be implemented on this river.

Keywords: CCHE 2D, hydrodynamic, morphology, sea level rise

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Authors: Daniel Fundi Murithi

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Missing data is a real bane in many surveys. To overcome the problems caused by missing data, partial deletion, and single imputation methods, among others, have been proposed. However, problems such as discarding usable data and inaccuracy in reproducing known population parameters and standard errors are associated with them. For regression and stochastic imputation, it is assumed that there is a variable with complete cases to be used as a predictor in estimating missing values in the other variable, and the relationship between the two variables is linear, which might not be realistic in practice. In this project, we estimate population total in presence of missing values in two-phase sampling. Instead of regression or stochastic models, non-parametric model based regression model is used in imputing missing values. Empirical study showed that nonparametric model-based regression imputation is better in reproducing variance of population total estimate obtained when there were no missing values compared to mean, median, regression, and stochastic imputation methods. Although regression and stochastic imputation were better than nonparametric model-based imputation in reproducing population total estimates obtained when there were no missing values in one of the sample sizes considered, nonparametric model-based imputation may be used when the relationship between outcome and predictor variables is not linear.

Keywords: finite population total, missing data, model-based imputation, two-phase sampling

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Authors: Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Jerónimo De Burgos-Jiménez, José F. Bienvenido-Bárcena, José F. Jiménez-Guerrero

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Environmental cost and transport congestion on roads resulting from product distribution in Europe have to lead to the creation of various programs and studies seeking to reduce these negative impacts. In this regard, apart from other institutions, the European Commission (EC) has designed plans in recent years promoting a more sustainable transportation model in an attempt to ultimately shift traffic from the road to the sea by using intermodality to achieve a model rebalancing. This issue proves especially relevant in supply chains from peripheral areas of the continent, where the supply of certain agrifood products is high. In such cases, the most difficult challenge is managing perishable goods. This study focuses on new approaches that strengthen the modal shift, as well as the reduction of externalities. This problem is analyzed by attempting to promote intermodal system (truck and short sea shipping) for transport, taking as point of reference highly perishable products (vegetables) exported from southeast Spain, which is the leading supplier to Europe. Methodologically, this paper seeks to contribute to the literature by proposing a different and complementary approach to establish a comparison between intermodal and the “only road” alternative. For this purpose, the multicriteria decision is utilized in a p-median model (P-M) adapted to the transport of perishables and to a means of shipping selection problem, which must consider different variables: transit cost, including externalities, time, and frequency (including agile response time). This scheme avoids bias in decision-making processes. By observing the results, it can be seen that the influence of the externalities as drivers of the modal shift is reduced when transit time is introduced as a decision variable. These findings confirm that the general strategies, those of the EC, based on environmental benefits lose their capacity for implementation when they are applied to complex circumstances. In general, the different estimations reveal that, in the case of perishables, intermodality would be a secondary and viable option only for very specific destinations (for example, Hamburg and nearby locations, the area of influence of London, Paris, and the Netherlands). Based on this framework, the general outlook on this subject should be modified. Perhaps the government should promote specific business strategies based on new trends in the supply chain, not only on the reduction of externalities, and find new approaches that strengthen the modal shift. A possible option is to redefine ports, conceptualizing them as digitalized redistribution and coordination centers and not only as areas of cargo exchange.

Keywords: environmental externalities, intermodal transport, perishable food, transit time

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Authors: Tadesse Anberbir, Felix Bankole, Tomio Takara, Girma Mamo

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In the development of a text-to-speech synthesizer, automatic derivation of correct pronunciation from the grapheme form of a text is a central problem. Particularly deriving phonological features which are not shown in orthography is challenging. In the Amharic language, geminates and epenthetic vowels are very crucial for proper pronunciation but neither is shown in orthography. In this paper, we proposed and integrated a morphological analyzer into an Amharic Text-to-Speech system, mainly to predict geminates and epenthetic vowel positions, and prepared a duration modeling method. Amharic Text-to-Speech system (AmhTTS) is a parametric and rule-based system that adopts a cepstral method and uses a source filter model for speech production and a Log Magnitude Approximation (LMA) filter as the vocal tract filter. The naturalness of the system after employing the duration modeling was evaluated by sentence listening test and we achieved an average Mean Opinion Score (MOS) 3.4 (68%) which is moderate. By modeling the duration of geminates and controlling the locations of epenthetic vowel, we are able to synthesize good quality speech. Our system is mainly suitable to be customized for other Ethiopian languages with limited resources.

Keywords: Amharic, gemination, speech synthesis, morphology, epenthesis

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Authors: Ilhem Ouelhazi, Mouna Elakhdar, Lakdar Kairouani

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A computer simulation model for a combined ejector-vapor compression cycle that uses working fluid R134a. A refrigeration system was developed which combines a basic vapor compression refrigeration cycle with an ejector cooling cycle. A one-dimensional mathematical model was developed using the equations governing the flow and thermodynamics based on the constant area ejector flow model. The effects of the operating parameters on the cooling capacity, the performance coefficient, and the entrainment ratio are studied. The current model is based on the NIST-REFPROP database for refrigerants properties calculations. The simulated performance is compared with the available experimental data from the literature for validation.

Keywords: combined refrigeration cycle, constant area ejector, R134a, ejector-cooling cycle, performance, mathematical simulation, vapor compression cycle

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Authors: Luigi Delle Rose, Oliver Fischer, Ahmed Hammad

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In this article, we study the prospects of the proposed Large Hadron electron Collider (LHeC) in the search for heavy neutral scalar particles. We consider a minimal model with one additional complex scalar singlet that interacts with the Standard Model (SM) via mixing with the Higgs doublet, giving rise to an SM-like Higgs boson and a heavy scalar particle. Both scalar particles are produced via vector boson fusion and can be tested via their decays into pairs of SM particles, analogously to the SM Higgs boson. Using multivariate techniques, we show that the LHeC is sensitive to heavy scalars with masses between 200 and 800 GeV down to scalar mixing of order 0.01.

Keywords: beyond the standard model, large hadron electron collider, multivariate analysis, scalar singlet

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Authors: R. Litt, A. Brown

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Aims: We aimed to assess the efficiency of ‘Attend Anywhere’ orthodontic clinics within a district general hospital during COVID- 19. Our secondary aim was to pilot a questionnaire to assess patient satisfaction with virtual orthodontic appointments. Design: The study design is a service evaluation including pilot questionnaire. Methods: The average number of patients seen per virtual clinic and the number of patients failing to attend was compared to face-to-face clinics. The capability of virtual appointments to be successful in preventing the need for a face-to-face appointment was assessed. Patients were invited to complete a telephone pilot questionnaire focusing on patient satisfaction and accessibility. Results: There was a small increase in the number of patients failing to attend virtual appointments, with a third of the patients who did not attend failing to receive the appointment link. 81.9% of virtual clinic appointments were successful and prevented the need for a face-to-face appointment. Overall patients were very satisfied with their virtual orthodontic appointment and the majority required no assistance to access the service. Conclusions: The use of ‘Attend Anywhere’ clinics in orthodontics offers patients and clinicians an effective and efficient alternative to face-to-face appointments that patients on average find easy to use and completely satisfactory.

Keywords: clinics, COVID, orthodontics, patient satisfaction, virtual

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Authors: Georgi Bebrov, Rozalina Dimova

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In the field of quantum secure communication, there is no evaluation that characterizes quantum secure communication (QSC) protocols in a complete, general manner. The current paper addresses the problem concerning the lack of such an evaluation for QSC protocols by introducing an optimality evaluation, which is expressed as the average over the three main parameters of QSC protocols: efficiency, security, and practicality. For the efficiency evaluation, the common expression of this parameter is used, which incorporates all the classical and quantum resources (bits and qubits) utilized for transferring a certain amount of information (bits) in a secure manner. By using criteria approach whether or not certain criteria are met, an expression for the practicality evaluation is presented, which accounts for the complexity of the QSC practical realization. Based on the error rates that the common quantum attacks (Measurement and resend, Intercept and resend, probe attack, and entanglement swapping attack) induce, the security evaluation for a QSC protocol is proposed as the minimum function taken over the error rates of the mentioned quantum attacks. For the sake of clarity, an example is presented in order to show how the optimality is calculated.

Keywords: quantum cryptography, quantum secure communcation, quantum secure direct communcation security, quantum secure direct communcation efficiency, quantum secure direct communcation practicality

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Authors: Maninder Kaur Gill, Alpana Agarwal

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It is practically not feasible to measure the open-loop voltage gain of the operational amplifier in the open loop configuration. It is because the open-loop voltage gain of the operational amplifier is very large. In order to avoid the saturation of the output voltage, a very small input should be given to operational amplifier which is not possible to be measured practically by a digital multimeter. A test circuit for measurement of open loop voltage gain of an operational amplifier has been proposed and verified using simulation tools as well as by experimental methods on breadboard. The main advantage of this test circuit is that it is simple, fast, accurate, cost effective, and easy to handle even on a breadboard. The test circuit requires only the device under test (DUT) along with resistors. This circuit has been tested for measurement of open loop voltage gain for different operational amplifiers. The underlying goal is to design testable circuits for various analog devices that are simple to realize in VLSI systems, giving accurate results and without changing the characteristics of the original system. The DUTs used are LM741CN and UA741CP. For LM741CN, the simulated gain and experimentally measured gain (average) are calculated as 89.71 dB and 87.71 dB, respectively. For UA741CP, the simulated gain and experimentally measured gain (average) are calculated as 101.15 dB and 105.15 dB, respectively. These values are found to be close to the datasheet values.

Keywords: Device Under Test (DUT), open loop voltage gain, operational amplifier, test circuit

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Authors: Tamara Romero, Manuel Romero-Huelva, Jose V. Segarra, Jose Castro, Carlos Fernandez

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Many foods resulting from processing and manufacturing end up as waste, most of which is burned, dumped into landfills or used as compost, which leads to wasted resources, and environmental problems due to unsuitable disposal. Using residues of the crop and food processing industries to feed livestock has the advantage to obviating the need for costly waste management programs. The main residue generated in citrus cultivations and rice crop are pruning waste and rice straw, respectively. Within Spain, the Valencian Community is one of the world's oldest citrus and rice production areas. The objective of this experiment found out the effects of including orange leaves and rice straw as ingredients in the concentrate diets of goats, on milk production and methane (CH₄) emissions. Ten Murciano-Granadina dairy goats (45 kg of body weight, on average) in mid-lactation were selected in a crossover design experiment, where each goat received two treatments in 2 periods. Both groups were fed with 1.7 kg pelleted mixed ration; one group (n= 5) was a control (C) and the other group (n= 5) used orange leaves and rice straw (OR). The forage was alfalfa hay, and it was the same for the two groups (1 kg of alfalfa was offered by goat and day). The diets employed to achieve the requirements during lactation period for caprine livestock. The goats were allocated to individual metabolism cages. After 14 days of adaptation, feed intake and milk yield were recorded daily over a 5 days period. Physico-chemical parameters and somatic cell count in milk samples were determined. Then, gas exchange measurements were recorded individually by an open-circuit indirect calorimetry system using a head box. The data were analyzed by mixed model with diet and digestibility as fixed effect and goat as random effect. No differences were found for dry matter intake (2.23 kg/d, on average). Higher milk yield was found for C diet than OR (2.3 vs. 2.1 kg/goat and day, respectively) and, greater milk fat content was observed for OR than C (6.5 vs. 5.5%, respectively). The cheese extract was also greater in OR than C (10.7 vs. 9.6%). Goats fed OR diet produced significantly fewer CH₄ emissions than C diet (27 vs. 30 g/d, respectively). These preliminary results (LIFE Project LOWCARBON FEED LIFE/CCM/ES/000088) suggested that the use of these waste by-products was effective in reducing CH₄ emission without detrimental effect on milk yield.

Keywords: agricultural waste, goat, milk production, methane emission

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, A. L. Ho, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih

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The purpose of the study is to analyze the load rejection transient of ABWR by using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes. This study has some steps. First, using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes establish the model of ABWR. Second, the key parameters are identified to refine the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model further in the frame of a steady state analysis. Third, the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model is used to perform the load rejection transient analysis. Finally, the FSAR data are used to compare with the analysis results. The results of TRACE/PARCS are consistent with the FSAR data for the important parameters. It indicates that the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model of ABWR has a good accuracy in the load rejection transient.

Keywords: ABWR, TRACE, PARCS, SNAP

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Authors: Victor Arokia Doss, Kuberapandian Dharaniyambigai, K. Julia Rose Mary

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Advanced Glycation End (AGE) products are the end products due to the reaction between excess reducing sugar present in diabetes and free amino group in protein lipids and nucleic acids. Thus, non-enzymic glycation of molecules such as hemoglobin, collagen, and other structurally and functionally important proteins add to the pathogenic complications such as diabetic retinopathy, neuropathy, nephropathy, vascular changes, atherosclerosis, Alzheimer's disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and chronic heart failure. The most common non-cross linking AGE, carboxymethyl lysine (CML) is formed by the oxidative breakdown of fructosyllysine, which is a product of glucose and lysine. CML is formed in a wide variety of tissues and is an index to assess the extent of glycoxidative damage. Thus we have constructed a mathematical and computational model that predicts the effect of temperature differences in vivo, on the formation of CML, which is now being considered as an important intracellular milieu. This hybrid model that had been tested for its parameter fitting and its sensitivity with available experimental data paves the way for designing novel laboratory experiments that would throw more light on the pathological formation of AGE adducts and in the pathophysiology of diabetic complications.

Keywords: advanced glycation end-products, CML, mathematical model, computational model

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Authors: Ismail Bamidele Afolabi, Abdulmujeeb Babatunde Aremu, Lawal Abdurraheem Maidoki, Nnodimele Onuigbo Atulomah

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Background: Hepatitis B virus infection remains a significant global public health challenge with infectivity as well as the potential for transmission more than 50 to 100 times that of HIV. Annually, global HBV-related mortality is linked primarily to cirrhosis and liver carcinoma. The ever-increasing endemicity of HBV among children under-5-years, owing to vertical transmission and its lingering chronicity in developing countries, will hamper the global efforts concertedly endorsed towards eliminating viral hepatitis as a global public health threat by 2030. Objective: This study assessed information motivation behavioral skills model constructs as predictors of HBV infection prevention practices among consenting expectant mothers attending antenatal care in Central Uganda as a focal point of intervention towards breaking materno-foetal transmission of HBV. Methods: A cross-sectional study with a quantitative data collection approach based on the constructs of the IMB model was used to capture data on the study variables among 385 randomly selected pregnant women between September and October 2020. Data derived from the quantitative instrument were transformed into weighted aggregate scores using SPSS version 26. ANOVA and regression analysis were done to ascertain the study hypotheses with a significance level set as (p ≤ 0.05). Results: Relatively 60% of the respondents were aged between 18 and 28. Expectant mothers with secondary education (42.3%) were predominant. Furthermore, an average but inadequate knowledge (X ̅=5.97±6.61; B=0.57; p<.001), incorrect perception (X ̅=17.10±18.31; B=0.97; p=.014), and good behavioral skills (X ̅=12.39±13.37; B=0.56; p<.001) for adopting prevention practices all statistically predicted the unsatisfactory level of prevention practices (X ̅=15.03±16.20) among the study respondents as measured on rating scales of 12, 33, 21 and 30 respectively. Conclusion: Evidence from this study corroborates the imperativeness of IMB constructs in reducing the burden of HBV infection in developing countries. Therefore, the inadequate HBV knowledge and misperception among obstetric populations necessitate personalized health education during antenatal visits and subsequent health campaigns in order to inform better prevention practices and, in turn, reduce the lingering chronicity of HBV infection in developing countries.

Keywords: behavioral skills, HBV infection, knowledge, perception, pregnant women, prevention practices

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Authors: Yousof Farrag, Sara Malmir, Rebeca Bouza, Maite Rico, Belén Montero, Luís Barral

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Biopolymers are being extensively studied in the last years as a replacement of the conventional petroleum derived polymers, especially in packaging industry. They are natural, biodegradable materials. However, the lack of good mechanical and barrier properties is a problem in the way of this replacement. One of the most abundant biopolymers in the nature is the starch, its renewable, biocompatible low cost polysaccharide, it can be obtained from wide variety of plants, it has been used in food, packaging and other industries. This work is focusing on the production a high yield of starch nanoparticles via nanoprecipitation, to be used as reinforcement filling of biopolymer packaging matrices made of different types of starch improving their mechanical and barrier properties. Wheat and corn starch solutions were prepared in different concentrations. Absolute ethanol, acetone and different concentrations of hydrochloric acid were added as antisolvents dropwise under different amplitudes of sonication and different speeds of stirring, the produced particles were analyzed with dynamic light scattering DLS and scanning electron microscope SEM getting the morphology and the size distribution to study the effect of those factors on the produced particles. DLS results show that we have nanoparticles using low concentration of corn starch (0.5%) using 0.1M HCl as antisolvent, [Z average: 209 nm, PDI: 0,49], in case of wheat starch, we could obtain nanoparticles [Z average: 159 nm, PDI: 0,45] using the same starch solution concentration together with absolute ethanol as antisolvent.

Keywords: biopolymers, nanoparticles, DLS, starch

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Authors: Meriche Hacene, Gadiri Sabiha

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Introduction: Allergy to animal hair is hypersensitivity to animal appendages to look for in front of any rhinoconjunctivitis or asthma. An anamnesis associated with the prick-tests makes it possible to guide the diagnosis, which will be supplemented in case of doubt by specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) assays. The objective of our study is to study the characteristics of patients sensitized to animal hair. Patients and methods: Retrospective study conducted on 105 adult patients and 69 children over a period of 3 years, including patients who received a specific IgE assay (respiratory panel and pediatric panel) by immunodot method. Result: 105 adult patients, including 74 women and 31 men, with an average age of 41 years, of which 8.5% had sensitization to animal hair (5 men and 4 women), namely: cat (5%), horse (4.7%) and dog (3.8%). For the 69 children, a slight female predominance was noted (56%), with an average age of 7.5 years, of which (13%) are sensitized to animal hair (5 girls and 4 boys): cat (10%), while awareness of dog and horse hair was less frequent with an identical prevalence of (4.34%). The dominant symptoms are rhinorrhea and sneezing for both categories, respectively (40% and 26.6% in adults and 23% for both symptoms in children). Cross-sensitization was observed in the 2 series: 1 single cat-dog and cat-horse case and 2 dog-horse cases in adults. In children 100% of patients with sensitization to dog hair had cross-sensitization to cat hair, only 1 case was observed for cat-horse cross-reactivity. Conclusion: This work shows that allergy to animal hair is common. Studies on more representative samples are recommended.

Keywords: children, allegy to animals, specific Ig E, hypersensitivity

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

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The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: Thidilweli Denga, Bessie Malila, Lucretia Petersen

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The Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic should be taken as a wake-up call on the importance of hearing health care considering amongst other things the electronic methods of communication used. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that by 2050, there will be more than 2.5 billion people living with hearing loss. These numbers show that more people will need rehabilitation services. Studies have shown that most people living with hearing loss reside in Low-Middle Income Countries (LIMC). Innovative technological solutions such as digital health interventions that can be used to deliver hearing health services to remote areas now exist. Tele-audiology implementation can potentially enable the delivery of hearing loss services to rural and remote areas. This study aimed to establish the concurrent validity of the tele-audiology practice in school-based hearing screening. The study employed a cross-sectional design with a within-group comparison. The portable KUDUwave Audiometer was used to conduct hearing screening from 50 participants (n=50). In phase I of the study, the audiologist conducted on-site hearing screening, while the synchronous remote hearing screening (tele-audiology) using a 5G network was done in phase II. On-site hearing screening results were obtained for the first 25 participants (aged between 5-6 years). The second half started with the synchronous tele-audiology model to avoid order-effect. Repeated sample t-tests compared threshold results obtained in the left and right ears for onsite and remote screening. There was a good correspondence between the two methods with a threshold average within ±5 dB (decibels). The synchronous tele-audiology model has the potential to reduce the audiologists' case overload, while at the same time reaching populations that lack access due to distance, and shortage of hearing professionals in their areas of reach. With reliable and broadband connectivity, tele-audiology delivers the same service quality as the conventional method while reducing the travel costs of audiologists.

Keywords: hearing screening, low-resource communities, portable audiometer, tele-audiology

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

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Authors: Sourour Ramzi, Claudia Sarrico

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Little has been done on network DEA in education, and nobody has attempted to model the whole education supply chain using network DEA. As such the contribution of the present paper is to propose a model for measuring the efficiency of education supply chains using network DEA. First, we use a general survey of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to establish the emergent themes for research in DEA, and focus on the theme of Network DEA. Second, we use a survey on two-stage DEA models, and Network DEA to write a state of the art on Network DEA, particularly applied to supply chain management. Third, we use a survey on DEA applications to establish the most influential papers on DEA education applications, in order to establish the state of the art on applications of DEA in education, in general, and applications of DEA to education using network DEA, in particular. Finally, we propose a model for measuring the performance of education supply chains of different education systems (countries or states within a country, for instance). We then use this model on some empirical data.

Keywords: supply chain, education, data envelopment analysis, network DEA

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Authors: Peregrine James Dalziel, Philip Vu Tran

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Objective / Introduction: Demand for radiology services from Emergency Departments (ED) continues to increase with greater demands placed on radiology staff providing reports for the management of complex cases. Queuing theory indicates that wide variability of process time with the random nature of request arrival increases the probability of significant queues. This can lead to delays in the time-to-availability of radiology reports (TTA-RR) and potentially impaired ED patient flow. In addition, greater “cognitive workload” of greater volume may lead to reduced productivity and increased errors. We sought to quantify the potential ED flow improvements obtainable from increased radiology providers serving 3 public hospitals in Melbourne Australia. We sought to assess the potential productivity gains, quality improvement and the cost-effectiveness of increased labor inputs. Methods & Materials: The Western Health Medical Imaging Department moved from single resident coverage on weekend days 8:30 am-10:30 pm to a limited period of 2 resident coverage 1 pm-6 pm on both weekend days. The TTA-RR for weekend CT scans was calculated from the PACs database for the 8 month period symmetrically around the date of staffing change. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to isolate the improvement in TTA-RR, between the two 4-months periods. Daily and hourly scan volume at the time of each CT scan was calculated to assess the impact of varying department workload. To assess any improvement in report quality/errors a random sample of 200 studies was assessed to compare the average number of clinically significant over-read addendums to reports between the 2 periods. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by comparing the marginal cost of additional staffing against a conservative estimate of the economic benefit of improved ED patient throughput using the Australian national insurance rebate for private ED attendance as a revenue proxy. Results: The primary resident on call and the type of scan accounted for most of the explained variability in time to report availability (R2=0.29). Increasing daily volume and hourly volume was associated with increased TTA-RR (1.5m (p<0.01) and 4.8m (p<0.01) respectively per additional scan ordered within each time frame. Reports were available 25.9 minutes sooner on average in the 4 months post-implementation of double coverage (p<0.01) with additional 23.6 minutes improvement when 2 residents were on-site concomitantly (p<0.01). The aggregate average improvement in TTA-RR was 24.8 hours per weekend day This represents the increased decision-making time available to ED physicians and potential improvement in ED bed utilisation. 5% of reports from the intervention period contained clinically significant addendums vs 7% in the single resident period but this was not statistically significant (p=0.7). The marginal cost was less than the anticipated economic benefit based assuming a 50% capture of improved TTA-RR inpatient disposition and using the lowest available national insurance rebate as a proxy for economic benefit. Conclusion: TTA-RR improved significantly during the period of increased staff availability, both during the specific period of increased staffing and throughout the day. Increased labor utilisation is cost-effective compared with the potential improved productivity for ED cases requiring CT imaging.

Keywords: workflow, quality, administration, CT, staffing

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Authors: Omil Nady Mahrous Maximous

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The construction industry is currently experiencing a shift towards digitisation. This transformation is driven by adopting technologies like Building Information Modelling (BIM), drones, and augmented reality (AR). These advancements are revolutionizing the process of designing, constructing, and operating projects. BIM, for instance, is a new way of communicating and exploiting technology such as software and machinery. It enables the creation of a replica or virtual model of buildings or infrastructure projects. It facilitates simulating construction procedures, identifying issues beforehand, and optimizing designs accordingly. Drones are another tool in this revolution, as they can be utilized for site surveys, inspections, and even deliveries. Moreover, AR technology provides real-time information to workers involved in the project. Implementing these technologies in the construction industry has brought about improvements in efficiency, safety measures, and sustainable practices. BIM helps minimize rework and waste materials, while drones contribute to safety by reducing workers' exposure to areas. Additionally, AR plays a role in worker safety by delivering instructions and guidance during operations. Although the digital transformation within the construction industry is still in its early stages, it holds the potential to reshape project delivery methods entirely. By embracing these technologies, construction companies can boost their profitability while simultaneously reducing their environmental impact and ensuring safer practices.

Keywords: architectural education, construction industry, digital learning environments, immersive learning BIM, digital construction, construction technologies, digital transformation artificial intelligence, collaboration, digital architecture, digital design theory, material selection, space construction

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Authors: Nora El-Bilawia

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This paper discovers the challenges and/or opportunities to implementing multiple intelligence (MI) practices in English as foreign language (EFL) classrooms at Egyptian public schools as part of the government’s educational reform plan. It is found that Egyptian EFL teachers value the use of MI’s ways of teaching as means for active and higher order thinking. However, teachers believed they were underprivileged, as the government did not provide appropriate trainings, tools, or means to integrate MI in their daily lessons. They also conferred challenges they face due to some Egyptian schooling cultural practices. At the end of this chapter, a proposed need for a paradigm shift in the schooling culture in Egypt to implement practical changes in schools to promote hope in education such as the use of MI teaching tools. This study promotes cross-cultural understanding of educational opportunities and efforts for equal learning outcomes around the globe.

Keywords: professional development, schooling culture, acculturation, equitable education

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: Maryam Kheirollahpour, Mahmoud Danaee, Amir Faisal Merican, Asma Ahmad Shariff

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Background: The presence of nonlinearity among the risk factors of eating behavior causes a bias in the prediction models. The accuracy of estimation of eating behaviors risk factors in the primary prevention of obesity has been established. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the potential of a hybrid model of structural equation modeling (SEM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict eating behaviors. Methods: The Partial Least Square-SEM (PLS-SEM) and a hybrid model (SEM-Artificial Neural Networks (SEM-ANN)) were applied to evaluate the factors affecting eating behavior patterns among university students. 340 university students participated in this study. The PLS-SEM analysis was used to check the effect of emotional eating scale (EES), body shape concern (BSC), and body appreciation scale (BAS) on different categories of eating behavior patterns (EBP). Then, the hybrid model was conducted using multilayer perceptron (MLP) with feedforward network topology. Moreover, Levenberg-Marquardt, which is a supervised learning model, was applied as a learning method for MLP training. The Tangent/sigmoid function was used for the input layer while the linear function applied for the output layer. The coefficient of determination (R²) and mean square error (MSE) was calculated. Results: It was proved that the hybrid model was superior to PLS-SEM methods. Using hybrid model, the optimal network happened at MPLP 3-17-8, while the R² of the model was increased by 27%, while, the MSE was decreased by 9.6%. Moreover, it was found that which one of these factors have significantly affected on healthy and unhealthy eating behavior patterns. The p-value was reported to be less than 0.01 for most of the paths. Conclusion/Importance: Thus, a hybrid approach could be suggested as a significant methodological contribution from a statistical standpoint, and it can be implemented as software to be able to predict models with the highest accuracy.

Keywords: hybrid model, structural equation modeling, artificial neural networks, eating behavior patterns

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Authors: Golden J. Zhang, Dongbao Zhou

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Darcy’s law is the fundamental theory in fluid dynamics and engineering applications. Although Darcy linearity was found to be valid for slow, viscous flow, non-linear and non-Darcian flow has been well documented under both small and large velocity fluid flow. Various classical models were proposed and used widely to quantify non-Darcian flow, including the well-known Forchheimer, Izbash, and Swartzendruber models. Applications, however, revealed limitations of these models. Here we propose a general model built upon the Caputo fractional derivative to quantify non-Darcian flow for various flows (laminar to turbulence).Real-world applications and model comparisons showed that the new fractional-derivative model, which extends the fractional model proposed recently by Zhou and Yang (2018), can capture the non-Darcian flow in the relatively small velocity in low-permeability deposits and the relatively high velocity in high-permeability sand. A scale effect was also identified for non-Darcian flow in fractured rocks. Therefore, fractional calculus may provide an efficient tool to improve classical models to quantify fluid dynamics in aquatic environments.

Keywords: fractional derivative, darcy’s law, non-darcian flow, fluid dynamics

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Authors: Jae Won Shin, Chang Ho Hyun

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A disintegration of deuterons by photons (dγ → np) reaction model for GEANT4 is developed in this work. An effective field theory with dibaryon fields Introducing a dibaryon field, we can take into account the effective range contribution to the propagator up to infinite order, and it consequently makes the convergence of the theory better than the pionless effective field theory without dibaryon fields. We develop a hadronic model for GEANT4 which is specialized for the disintegration of the deuteron by photons, dγ → np. For the description of two-nucleon interactions, we employ an effective field theory so called pionless theory with dibaryon fields (dEFT). In spite of its simplicity, the theory has proven very effective and useful in the applications to various two-nucleon systems and processes at low energies. We apply the new model of GEANT4 (G4dEFT) to the calculation of total and differential cross sections in dγ → np, and obtain good agreements to experimental data for a wide range of incoming photon energies.

Keywords: dγ → np, dibaryon fields, effective field theory, GEANT4

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Authors: Kodo Sektani, Apostolos Tsouvalas, Andrei Metrikine

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The reassessment of existing movable bridges in The Netherlands has created the need for acceptance/rejection criteria to assess whether the machineries are meet certain design demands. However, the existing design code defines a different limit state design, meant for new machineries which is based on a simple linear spring-mass model. Observations show that existing bridges do not confirm the model predictions. In fact, movable bridges are nonlinear systems consisting of mechanical components, such as, gears, electric motors and brakes. Next to that, each movable bridge is characterized by a unique set of parameters. However, in the existing code various variables that describe the physical characteristics of the bridge are neglected or replaced by partial factors. For instance, the damping ratio ζ, which is different for drawbridges compared to bascule bridges, is taken as a constant for all bridge types. In this paper, a model is developed that overcomes some of the limitations of existing modelling approaches to capture the dynamics of the powertrain of a class of bridge machineries First, a semidefinite dynamic model is proposed, which accounts for stiffness, damping, and some additional variables of the physical system, which are neglected by the code, such as nonlinear braking torques. The model gives an upper bound of the peak forces/torques occurring in the powertrain during emergency braking. Second, a discrete nonlinear dynamic model is discussed, with realistic motor torque characteristics during normal operation. This model succeeds to accurately predict the full time history of the occurred stress state of the opening and closing cycle for fatigue purposes.

Keywords: Dynamics of movable bridges, Bridge machinery, Powertrains, Torque measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 140