Search results for: stretched exponential
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 425

Search results for: stretched exponential

95 Multistep Thermal Degradation Kinetics: Pyrolysis of CaSO₄-Complex Obtained by Antiscaling Effect of Maleic-Anhydride Polymer

Authors: Yousef M. Al-Roomi, Kaneez Fatema Hussain

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This work evaluates the thermal degradation kinetic parameters of CaSO₄-complex isolated after the inhibition effect of maleic-anhydride based polymer (YMR-polymers). Pyrolysis experiments were carried out at four heating rates (5, 10, 15 and 20°C/min). Several analytical model-free methods were used to determine the kinetic parameters, including Friedman, Coats and Redfern, Kissinger, Flynn-Wall-Ozawa and Kissinger-Akahira–Sunose methods. The Criado model fitting method based on real mechanism followed in thermal degradation of the complex has been applied to explain the degradation mechanism of CaSO₄-complex. In addition, a simple dynamic model was proposed over two temperature ranges for successive decomposition of CaSO₄-complex which has a combination of organic and inorganic part (adsorbed polymer + CaSO₄.2H₂O scale). The model developed enabled the assessment of pre-exponential factor (A) and apparent activation-energy (Eₐ) for both stages independently using a mathematical developed expression based on an integral solution. The unique reaction mechanism approach applied in this study showed that (Eₐ₁-160.5 kJ/mole) for organic decomposition (adsorbed polymer stage-I) has been lower than Eₐ₂-388 kJ/mole for the CaSO₄ decomposition (inorganic stage-II). Further adsorbed YMR-antiscalant not only reduced the decomposition temperature of CaSO₄-complex compared to CaSO₄-blank (CaSO₄.2H₂O scales in the absence of YMR-polymer) but also distorted the crystal lattice of the organic complex of CaSO₄ precipitates, destroying their compact and regular crystal structures observed from XRD and SEM studies.

Keywords: CaSO₄-complex, maleic-anhydride polymers, thermal degradation kinetics and mechanism, XRD and SEM studies

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
94 Analysis of Factors Influencing the Response Time of an Aspirating Gaseous Agent Concentration Detection Method

Authors: Yu Guan, Song Lu, Wei Yuan, Heping Zhang

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Gas fire extinguishing system is widely used due to its cleanliness and efficiency, and since its spray will be affected by many factors such as convection and obstacles in jetting region, so in order to evaluate its effectiveness, detecting concentration distribution in the jetting area is indispensable, which is commonly achieved by aspirating concentration detection technique. During the concentration measurement, the response time of detector is a very important parameter, especially for those fire-extinguishing systems with rapid gas dispersion. Long response time will not only underestimate its concentration but also prolong the change of concentration with time. Therefore it is necessary to analyze the factors influencing the response time. In the paper, an aspirating concentration detection method was introduced, which is achieved by using a small critical nozzle and a laminar flowmeter, and because of the response time is mainly related to the gas transport process from sampling site to the sensor, the effects of exhaust pipe size, gas flow rate, and gas concentration on its response time were analyzed. During the research, Bromotrifluoromethane (CBrF₃) was used. The effect of the sampling tube was investigated with different length of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 m (5mm in pipe diameter) and different pipe diameter of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 mm (3m in length). The effect of gas flow rate was analyzed by changing the throat diameter of the critical nozzle with 0.5, 0.682, 0.75, 0.8, 0.84 and 0.88 mm. The effect of gas concentration on response time was studied with the concentration range of 0-25%. The result showed that the response time increased with the increase of both the length and diameter of the sampling pipe, and the effect of length on response time was linear, but for the effect of diameter, it was exponential. It was also found that as the throat diameter of critical nozzle increased, the response time reduced a lot, in other words, gas flow rate has a great influence on response time. For the effect of gas concentration, the response time increased with the increase of the CBrF₃ concentration, and the slope of the curve was reduced.

Keywords: aspirating concentration detection, fire extinguishing, gaseous agent, response time

Procedia PDF Downloads 260
93 Life Cycle Analysis of the Antibacterial Gel Product Using Iso 14040 and Recipe 2016 Method

Authors: Pablo Andres Flores Siguenza, Noe Rodrigo Guaman Guachichullca

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Sustainable practices have received increasing attention from academics and companies in recent decades due to, among many factors, the market advantages they generate, global commitments, and policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, addressing resource scarcity, and rethinking waste management. The search for ways to promote sustainability leads industries to abandon classical methods and resort to the use of innovative strategies, which in turn are based on quantitative analysis methods and tools such as life cycle analysis (LCA), which is the basis for sustainable production and consumption, since it is a method that analyzes objectively, methodically, systematically, and scientifically the environmental impact caused by a process/product during its entire life cycle. The objective of this study is to develop an LCA of the antibacterial gel product throughout its entire supply chain (SC) under the methodology of ISO 14044 with the help of Gabi software and the Recipe 2016 method. The selection of the case study product was made based on its relevance in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its exponential increase in production. For the development of the LCA, data from a Mexican company are used, and 3 scenarios are defined to obtain the midpoint and endpoint environmental impacts both by phases and globally. As part of the results, the most outstanding environmental impact categories are climate change, fossil fuel depletion, and terrestrial ecotoxicity, and the stage that generates the most pollution in the entire SC is the extraction of raw materials. The study serves as a basis for the development of different sustainability strategies, demonstrates the usefulness of an LCA, and agrees with different authors on the role and importance of this methodology in sustainable development.

Keywords: sustainability, sustainable development, life cycle analysis, environmental impact, antibacterial gel

Procedia PDF Downloads 36
92 Usability Evaluation of a Self-Report Mobile App for COVID-19 Symptoms: Supporting Health Monitoring in the Work Context

Authors: Kevin Montanez, Patricia Garcia

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The confinement and restrictions adopted to avoid an exponential spread of the COVID-19 have negatively impacted the Peruvian economy. In this context, Industries offering essential products could continue operating, but they have to follow safety protocols and implement strategies to ensure employee health. In view of the increasing internet access and mobile phone ownership, “Alerta Temprana”, a mobile app, was developed to self-report COVID-19 symptoms in the work context. In this study, the usability of the mobile app “Alerta Temprana” was evaluated from the perspective of health monitors and workers. In addition to reporting the metrics related to the usability of the application, the utility of the system is also evaluated from the monitors' perspective. In this descriptive study, the participants used the mobile app for two months. Afterwards, System Usability Scale (SUS) questionnaire was answered by the workers and monitors. A Usefulness questionnaire with open questions was also used for the monitors. The data related to the use of the application was collected during one month. Furthermore, descriptive statistics and bivariate analysis were used. The workers rated the application as good (70.39). In the case of the monitors, usability was excellent (83.0). The most important feature for the monitors were the emails generated by the application. The average interaction per user was 30 seconds and a total of 6172 self-reports were sent. Finally, a statistically significant association was found between the acceptability scale and the work area. The results of this study suggest that Alerta Temprana has the potential to be used for surveillance and health monitoring in any context of face-to-face modality. Participants reported a high degree of ease of use. However, from the perspective of workers, SUS cannot diagnose usability issues and we suggest we use another standard usability questionnaire to improve "Alerta Temprana" for future use.

Keywords: public health in informatics, mobile app, usability, self-report

Procedia PDF Downloads 101
91 Metabolic Manipulation as a Strategy for Optimization of Biomass Productivity and Oil Content in the Microalgae Desmodesmus Sp.

Authors: Ivan A. Sandoval Salazar, Silvia F. Valderrama

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The microalgae oil emerges as a promising source of raw material for many industrial applications. Thus, this study had as a main focus on the cultivation of the microalgae species Desmodesmus sp. in laboratory scale with a view to maximizing biomass production and triglyceride content in the lipid fraction. Initially, culture conditions were selected to optimize biomass production, which was subsequently subjected to nutritional stress by varying nitrate and phosphate concentrations in order to increase the content and productivity of fatty acids. The culture medium BOLD 3N, nitrate and phosphate, light intensity 250,500 and 1000 μmol photons.m².s⁻¹, photoperiod of 12:12 were evaluated. Under the best conditions of the tests, a maximum cell division of 1.13 div.dia⁻¹ was obtained on the sixth day of culture, beginning of the exponential phase, and a maximum concentration of 8.42x107 cell.mL⁻¹ and dry biomass of 3.49 gL⁻¹ on the 20th day, in the stationary phase. The lipid content in the first stage of culture was approximately 8% after 12 days and at the end of the culture in the stationary phase ranged from 12% to 16% (20 days). In the microalgae grown at 250 μmol fotons.m2.s-1 the fatty acid profile was mostly polyunsaturated (52%). The total of unsaturated fatty acids, identified in this species of microalga, reached values between 70 and 75%, being qualified for use in the food and pharmaceutical industry. In addition, this study showed that the cultivation conditions influenced mainly the production of polyunsaturated fatty acids, with the predominance of γ-linolenic acid. However, in the cultures submitted to the highest the intensity of light (1000 μmol photons.m².s⁻¹) and low concentrations of nitrate and phosphate, saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids, which present greater oxidative stability, were identified mainly (60 to 70 %) being qualified for the production of biodiesel and for oleochemistry.

Keywords: microalgae, Desmodesmus sp, fatty acids, biodiesel

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
90 Numerical Investigation of Turbulent Inflow Strategy in Wind Energy Applications

Authors: Arijit Saha, Hassan Kassem, Leo Hoening

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Ongoing climate change demands the increasing use of renewable energies. Wind energy plays an important role in this context since it can be applied almost everywhere in the world. To reduce the costs of wind turbines and to make them more competitive, simulations are very important since experiments are often too costly if at all possible. The wind turbine on a vast open area experiences the turbulence generated due to the atmosphere, so it was of utmost interest from this research point of view to generate the turbulence through various Inlet Turbulence Generation methods like Precursor cyclic and Kaimal Spectrum Exponential Coherence (KSEC) in the computational simulation domain. To be able to validate computational fluid dynamic simulations of wind turbines with the experimental data, it is crucial to set up the conditions in the simulation as close to reality as possible. This present work, therefore, aims at investigating the turbulent inflow strategy and boundary conditions of KSEC and providing a comparative analysis alongside the Precursor cyclic method for Large Eddy Simulation within the context of wind energy applications. For the generation of the turbulent box through KSEC method, firstly, the constrained data were collected from an auxiliary channel flow, and later processing was performed with the open-source tool PyconTurb, whereas for the precursor cyclic, only the data from the auxiliary channel were sufficient. The functionality of these methods was studied through various statistical properties such as variance, turbulent intensity, etc with respect to different Bulk Reynolds numbers, and a conclusion was drawn on the feasibility of KSEC method. Furthermore, it was found necessary to verify the obtained data with DNS case setup for its applicability to use it as a real field CFD simulation.

Keywords: Inlet Turbulence Generation, CFD, precursor cyclic, KSEC, large Eddy simulation, PyconTurb

Procedia PDF Downloads 81
89 Improved Regression Relations Between Different Magnitude Types and the Moment Magnitude in the Western Balkan Earthquake Catalogue

Authors: Anila Xhahysa, Migena Ceyhan, Neki Kuka, Klajdi Qoshi, Damiano Koxhaj

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The seismic event catalog has been updated in the framework of a bilateral project supported by the Central European Investment Fund and with the extensive support of Global Earthquake Model Foundation to update Albania's national seismic hazard model. The earthquake catalogue prepared within this project covers the Western Balkan area limited by 38.0° - 48°N, 12.5° - 24.5°E and includes 41,806 earthquakes that occurred in the region between 510 BC and 2022. Since the moment magnitude characterizes the earthquake size accurately and the selected ground motion prediction equations for the seismic hazard assessment employ this scale, it was chosen as the uniform magnitude scale for the catalogue. Therefore, proxy values of moment magnitude had to be obtained by using new magnitude conversion equations between the local and other magnitude types to this unified scale. The Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue was considered the most authoritative for moderate to large earthquakes for moment magnitude reports; hence it was used as a reference for calibrating other sources. The best fit was observed when compared to some regional agencies, whereas, with reports of moment magnitudes from Italy, Greece and Turkey, differences were observed in all magnitude ranges. For teleseismic magnitudes, to account for the non-linearity of the relationships, we used the exponential model for the derivation of the regression equations. The obtained regressions for the surface wave magnitude and short-period body-wave magnitude show considerable differences with Global Earthquake Model regression curves, especially for low magnitude ranges. Moreover, a conversion relation was obtained between the local magnitude of Albania and the corresponding moment magnitude as reported by the global and regional agencies. As errors were present in both variables, the Deming regression was used.

Keywords: regression, seismic catalogue, local magnitude, tele-seismic magnitude, moment magnitude

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
88 Oxidation and Reduction Kinetics of Ni-Based Oxygen Carrier for Chemical Looping Combustion

Authors: J. H. Park, R. H. Hwang, K. B. Yi

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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is one of the important technology to reduce the CO₂ emission from large stationary sources such as a power plant. Among the carbon technologies for power plants, chemical looping combustion (CLC) has attracted much attention due to a higher thermal efficiency and a lower cost of electricity. A CLC process is consists of a fuel reactor and an air reactor which are interconnected fluidized bed reactor. In the fuel reactor, an oxygen carrier (OC) is reduced by fuel gas such as CH₄, H₂, CO. And the OC is send to air reactor and oxidized by air or O₂ gas. The oxidation and reduction reaction of OC occurs between the two reactors repeatedly. In the CLC system, high concentration of CO₂ can be easily obtained by steam condensation only from the fuel reactor. It is very important to understand the oxidation and reduction characteristics of oxygen carrier in the CLC system to determine the solids circulation rate between the air and fuel reactors, and the amount of solid bed materials. In this study, we have conducted the experiment and interpreted oxidation and reduction reaction characteristics via observing weight change of Ni-based oxygen carrier using the TGA with varying as concentration and temperature. Characterizations of the oxygen carrier were carried out with BET, SEM. The reaction rate increased with increasing the temperature and increasing the inlet gas concentration. We also compared experimental results and adapted basic reaction kinetic model (JMA model). JAM model is one of the nucleation and nuclei growth models, and this model can explain the delay time at the early part of reaction. As a result, the model data and experimental data agree over the arranged conversion and time with overall variance (R²) greater than 98%. Also, we calculated activation energy, pre-exponential factor, and reaction order through the Arrhenius plot and compared with previous Ni-based oxygen carriers.

Keywords: chemical looping combustion, kinetic, nickel-based, oxygen carrier, spray drying method

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
87 Cosmetic Dermatology Procedures: Survey Results of American Society for Dermatologic Surgery

Authors: Marina S. Basta, Kirollos S. Basta

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Cosmetic dermatology procedures have witnessed exponential growth and diversification over the last 10 years. Thus, the purpose of this study was to collect data about the latest trends for cosmetic procedures reported by dermatologists during the year 2018. This study was performed by American Society for Dermatologic Surgery (ASDS) in 2018 through sending survey invitations to 3,358 practicing dermatologists in the U.S. containing streamline questions as well as statistical questions targeted to specific analysis of cosmetic dermatology trends. Out of the targeted physicians, only 596 dermatologists reply to the survey invitation (15% overall response rate). It was noted that data collected from that survey was generalized to represent all ASDS members. Results show that there is an increase in cosmetic dermatology procedures since 12.5 million procedures were reported for 2018 compared to only 7.8 million for 2012. Injectable neuromodulators and soft tissue fillers have topped the list with a 3.7 million procedure count. Body sculpting, chemical peeling, hair transplantation, and microneedling procedures were reported to be 1.57 million cases combined. Also, the top two procedures using laser were represented in wrinkle treatment as well as sun damage correction, while the lowest two trends for laser usage were for treatments of tattoos and birthmarks. Cryolipolysis was found to be at the head of body sculpting procedures with 287,435 cases, while tumescent liposuction was reported as the least performed body sculpting procedure (18,286 cases). In conclusion, comparing the procedural trends for the last 7 years has indicated that there has been a 78% increase in soft tissue filler treatment compared to 2012. In addition, it was further noted that laser procedures scored 74% increase in the last 7 years while body contouring procedures have had four folds increase in general compared to 2012.

Keywords: cosmetic dermatology, ASDS procedure survey, laser, body sculpting

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
86 An Overview of Domain Models of Urban Quantitative Analysis

Authors: Mohan Li

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Nowadays, intelligent research technology is more and more important than traditional research methods in urban research work, and this proportion will greatly increase in the next few decades. Frequently such analyzing work cannot be carried without some software engineering knowledge. And here, domain models of urban research will be necessary when applying software engineering knowledge to urban work. In many urban plan practice projects, making rational models, feeding reliable data, and providing enough computation all make indispensable assistance in producing good urban planning. During the whole work process, domain models can optimize workflow design. At present, human beings have entered the era of big data. The amount of digital data generated by cities every day will increase at an exponential rate, and new data forms are constantly emerging. How to select a suitable data set from the massive amount of data, manage and process it has become an ability that more and more planners and urban researchers need to possess. This paper summarizes and makes predictions of the emergence of technologies and technological iterations that may affect urban research in the future, discover urban problems, and implement targeted sustainable urban strategies. They are summarized into seven major domain models. They are urban and rural regional domain model, urban ecological domain model, urban industry domain model, development dynamic domain model, urban social and cultural domain model, urban traffic domain model, and urban space domain model. These seven domain models can be used to guide the construction of systematic urban research topics and help researchers organize a series of intelligent analytical tools, such as Python, R, GIS, etc. These seven models make full use of quantitative spatial analysis, machine learning, and other technologies to achieve higher efficiency and accuracy in urban research, assisting people in making reasonable decisions.

Keywords: big data, domain model, urban planning, urban quantitative analysis, machine learning, workflow design

Procedia PDF Downloads 165
85 The LNG Paradox: The Role of Gas in the Energy Transition

Authors: Ira Joseph

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The LNG paradox addresses the issue of how the most expensive form of gas supply, which is LNG, will grow in an end user market where demand is most competitive, which is power generation. In this case, LNG demand growth is under siege from two entirely different directions. At one end is price; it will be extremely difficult for gas to replace coal in Asia due to the low price of coal and the age of the generation plants. Asia's coal fleet, on average, is less than two decades old and will need significant financial incentives to retire before its state lifespan. While gas would cut emissions in half relative to coal, it would also more than double the price of the fuel source for power generation, which puts it in a precarious position. In most countries in Asia other than China, this cost increase, particularly from imports, is simply not realistic when it is also necessary to focus on economic growth and social welfare. On the other end, renewables are growing at an exponential rate for three reasons. One is that prices are dropping. Two is that policy incentives are driving deployment, and three is that China is forcing renewables infrastructure into the market to take a political seat at the global energy table with Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia. Plus, more renewables will lower import growth of oil and gas in China, if not end it altogether. Renewables are the predator at the gate of gas demand in power generation and in every year that passes, renewables cut into demand growth projections for gas; in particular, the type of gas that is most expensive, which is LNG. Gas does have a role in the future, particularly within a domestic market. Once it crosses borders in the form of LNG or even pipeline gas, it quickly becomes a premium fuel and must be marketed and used this way. Our research shows that gas will be able to compete with batteries as an intermittency and storage tool and does offer a method to harmonize with renewables as part of the energy transition. As a baseload fuel, however, the role of gas, particularly, will be limited by cost once it needs to cross a border. Gas converted into blue or green hydrogen or ammonia is also an option for storage depending on the location. While this role is much reduced from the primary baseload role that gas once aspired to land, it still offers a credible option for decades to come.

Keywords: natural gas, LNG, demand, price, intermittency, storage, renewables

Procedia PDF Downloads 44
84 Leveraging on Application of Customer Relationship Management Strategy as Business Driving Force: A Case Study of Major Industries

Authors: Odunayo S. Faluse, Roger Telfer

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Customer relationship management is a business strategy that is centred on the idea that ‘Customer is the driving force of any business’ i.e. Customer is placed in a central position in any business. However, this belief coupled with the advancement in information technology in the past twenty years has experienced a change. In any form of business today it can be concluded that customers are the modern dictators to whom the industry always adjusts its business operations due to the increase in availability of information, intense market competition and ever growing negotiating ideas of customers in the process of buying and selling. The most vital role of any organization is to satisfy or meet customer’s needs and demands, which eventually determines customer’s long-term value to the industry. Therefore, this paper analyses and describes the application of customer relationship management operational strategies in some of the major industries in business. Both developed and up-coming companies nowadays value the quality of customer services and client’s loyalty, they also recognize the customers that are not very sensitive when it comes to changes in price and thereby realize that attracting new customers is more tasking and expensive than retaining the existing customers. However, research shows that several factors have recently amounts to the sudden rise in the execution of CRM strategies in the marketplace, such as a diverted attention of some organization towards integrating ideas in retaining existing customers rather than attracting new one, gathering data about customers through the use of internal database system and acquiring of external syndicate data, also exponential increase in technological intelligence. Apparently, with this development in business operations, CRM research in Academia remain nascent; hence this paper gives detailed critical analysis of the recent advancement in the use of CRM and key research opportunities for future development in using the implementation of CRM as a determinant factor for successful business optimization.

Keywords: agriculture, banking, business strategies, CRM, education, healthcare

Procedia PDF Downloads 211
83 An Overview of the Islamic Banking Development in the United Kingdom, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda

Authors: Pradeep Kulshrestha, Maulana Ayoub Ali

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The level of penetration of Islamic banking products and services has recorded a reasonable growth at an exponential rate in many parts of the world. There are many factors which have contributed to this growth including, but not limited to the rapid growth of number of Muslims who are uncomfortable with the conventional ways of banking, interest and higher interest rates scheduled by conventional banks and financial institutions as well as the financial inclusion campaign conducted in many countries. The system is facing legal challenges which open the research fdoor for practitioners and academicians for the sake of finding out solutions to those challenges. This paper tries to investigate the development of the Islamic banking system in the United Kingdom (UK), Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iran, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda in order to understand the modalities which have been employed to run an Islamic banking system in the aforementioned countries. The methodology which has been employed in doing this research paper is Doctrinal, of which legislations, policies and other legal tools have been carefully studied and analysed. Again, papers from academic journals, books and financial reports have been deeply analysed for the purpose of enriching the paper and come up with a tangible results. The paper found that in Asia, Malaysia has created the smoothest legal platform for Islamic banking system to work properly in the country. The United Kingdom has tried harder to smooth the banking system without affecting the conventional banking methods and without favouring the operations of Islamic banks. It also tries harder to make UK as an Islamic banking and finance hub in Europe. The entire banking system in Iran is Islamic, while Nigeria has undergone several legal reforms to suit Islamic banking system in the country. Kenya and Uganda are at a different pace in making Islamic Banking system work alongside the conventional banking system.  

Keywords: shariah, Islamic banking, law, alternative banking

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
82 Making the Right Call for Falls: Evaluating the Efficacy of a Multi-Faceted Trust Wide Approach to Improving Patient Safety Post Falls

Authors: Jawaad Saleem, Hannah Wright, Peter Sommerville, Adrian Hopper

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Introduction: Inpatient falls are the most commonly reported patient safety incidents, and carry a significant burden on resources, morbidity, and mortality. Ensuring adequate post falls management of patients by staff is therefore paramount to maintaining patient safety especially in out of hours and resource stretched settings. Aims: This quality improvement project aims to improve the current practice of falls management at Guys St Thomas Hospital, London as compared to our 2016 Quality Improvement Project findings. Furthermore, it looks to increase current junior doctors confidence in managing falls and their use of new guidance protocols. Methods: Multifaceted Interventions implemented included: the development of new trust wide guidelines detailing management pathways for patients post falls, available for intranet access. Furthermore, the production of 2000 lanyard cards distributed amongst junior doctors and staff which summarised these guidelines. Additionally, a ‘safety signal’ email was sent from the Trust chief medical officer to all staff raising awareness of falls and the guidelines. Formal falls teaching was also implemented for new doctors at induction. Using an established incident database, 189 consecutive falls in 2017were retrospectively analysed electronically to assess and compared to the variables measured in 2016 post interventions. A separate serious incident database was used to analyse 50 falls from May 2015 to March 2018 to ascertain the statistical significance of the impact of our interventions on serious incidents. A similar questionnaire for the 2017 cohort of foundation year one (FY1) doctors was performed and compared to 2016 results. Results: Questionnaire data demonstrated improved awareness and utility of guidelines and increased confidence as well as an increase in training. 97% of FY1 trainees felt that the interventions had increased their awareness of the impact of falls on patients in the trust. Data from the incident database demonstrated the time to review patients post fall had decreased from an average of 130 to 86 minutes. Improvement was also demonstrated in the reduced time to order and schedule X-ray and CT imaging, 3 and 5 hours respectively. Data from the serious incident database show that ‘the time from fall until harm was detected’ was statistically significantly lower (P = 0.044) post intervention. We also showed the incidence of significant delays in detecting harm ( > 10 hours) reduced post intervention. Conclusions: Our interventions have helped to significantly reduce the average time to assess, order and schedule appropriate imaging post falls. Delays of over ten hours to detect serious injuries after falls were commonplace; since the intervention, their frequency has markedly reduced. We suggest this will lead to identifying patient harm sooner, reduced clinical incidents relating to falls and thus improve overall patient safety. Our interventions have also helped increase clinical staff confidence, management, and awareness of falls in the trust. Next steps include expanding teaching sessions, improving multidisciplinary team involvement to aid this improvement.

Keywords: patient safety, quality improvement, serious incidents, falls, clinical care

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
81 A Levelized Cost Analysis for Solar Energy Powered Sea Water Desalination in the Arabian Gulf Region

Authors: Abdullah Kaya, Muammer Koc

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A levelized cost analysis of solar energy powered seawater desalination in The Emirate of Abu Dhabi is conducted to show that clean and renewable desalination is economically viable. The Emirate heavily relies on seawater desalination for its freshwater needs due to limited freshwater resources available. This trend is expected to increase further due to growing population and economic activity, rapid decline in limited freshwater reserves, and aggravating effects of climate change. Seawater desalination in Abu Dhabi is currently done through thermal desalination technologies such as multi-stage flash (MSF) and multi-effect distillation (MED) which are coupled with thermal power plants known as co-generation. Our analysis indicates that these thermal desalination methods are inefficient regarding energy consumption and harmful to the environment due to CO₂ emissions and other dangerous byproducts. Therefore, utilization of clean and renewable desalination options has become a must for The Emirate for the transition to a sustainable future. The rapid decline in the cost of solar PV system for energy production and RO technology for desalination makes the combination of these two an ideal option for a future of sustainable desalination in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. A Levelized cost analysis for water produced by solar PV + RO system indicates that Abu Dhabi is well positioned to utilize this technological combination for cheap and clean desalination for the coming years. It has been shown that cap-ex cost of solar PV powered RO system has potential to go as low as to 101 million US $ (1111 $/m³) at best case considering the recent technological developments. The levelized cost of water (LCW) values fluctuate between 0.34 $/m³ for the baseline case and 0.27 $/m³ for the best case. Even the highly conservative case yields LCW cheaper than 100% from all thermal desalination methods currently employed in the Emirate. Exponential cost decreases in both solar PV and RO sectors along with increasing economic scale globally signal the fact that a cheap and clean desalination can be achieved by the combination of these technologies.

Keywords: solar PV, RO desalination, sustainable desalination, levelized cost of analysis, Emirate of Abu Dhabi

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
80 Investigation of a Natural Convection Heat Sink for LEDs Based on Micro Heat Pipe Array-Rectangular Channel

Authors: Wei Wang, Yaohua Zhao, Yanhua Diao

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The exponential growth of the lighting industry has rendered traditional thermal technologies inadequate for addressing the thermal management challenges inherent to high-power light-emitting diode (LED) technology. To enhance the thermal management of LEDs, this study proposes a heat sink configuration that integrates a miniature heat pipe array based on phase change technology with rectangular channels. The thermal performance of the heat sink was evaluated through experimental testing, and the results demonstrated that when the input power was 100W, 150W, and 200W, the temperatures of the LED substrate were 47.64℃, 56.78℃, and 69.06℃, respectively. Additionally, the maximum temperature difference of the MHPA in the vertical direction was observed to be 0.32℃, 0.30℃, and 0.30℃, respectively. The results demonstrate that the heat sink not only effectively dissipates the heat generated by the LEDs, but also exhibits excellent temperature uniformity. In consideration of the experimental measurement outcomes, a corresponding numerical model was developed as part of this study. Following the model validation, the effect of the structural parameters of the heat sink on its heat dissipation efficacy was examined through the use of response surface methodology (RSM) analysis. The rectangular channel width, channel height, channel length, number of channel cross-sections, and channel cross-section spacing were selected as the input parameters, while the LED substrate temperature and the total mass of the heat sink were regarded as the response variables. Subsequently, the response was subjected to an analysis of variance (ANOVA), which yielded a regression model that predicted the response based on the input variables. This offers some direction for the design of the radiator.

Keywords: light-emitting diodes, heat transfer, heat pipe, natural convection, response surface methodology

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79 Zinc Oxide Nanorods Decorated Nanofibers Based Flexible Electrodes for Capacitive Energy Storage Applications

Authors: Syed Kamran Sami, Saqib Siddiqui

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In recent times, flexible supercapacitors retaining high electrochemical performance and steadiness along with mechanical endurance has developed as a spring of attraction due to the exponential progress and innovations in energy storage devices. To meet the rampant increasing demand of energy storage device with the small form factor, a unique, low cost and high-performance supercapacitor with considerably higher capacitance and mechanical robustness is required to recognize their real-life applications. Here in this report, synthesis route of electrode materials with low rigidity and high charge storage performance is reported using 1D-1D hybrid structure of zinc oxide (ZnO) nanorods, and conductive polymer smeared polyvinylidene fluoride–trifluoroethylene (P(VDF–TrFE)) electrospun nanofibers. The ZnO nanorods were uniformly grown on poly (3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) polystyrene sulfonate (PEDOT: PSS) coated P(VDF-TrFE) nanofibers using hydrothermal growth to manufacture light weight, permeable electrodes for supercapacitor. The PEDOT: PSS coated P(VDF-TrFE) porous web of nanofibers act as framework with high surface area. The incorporation of ZnO nanorods further boost the specific capacitance by 59%. The symmetric device using the fabricated 1D-1D hybrid electrodes reveals fairly high areal capacitance of 1.22mF/cm² at a current density of 0.1 mA/cm² with a power density of more than 1600 W/Kg. Moreover, the fabricated electrodes show exceptional flexibility and high endurance with 90% and 76% specific capacitance retention after 1000 and 5000 cycles respectively signifying the astonishing mechanical durability and long-term stability. All the properties exhibited by the fabricated electrode make it convenient for making flexible energy storage devices with the low form factor.

Keywords: ZnO nanorods, electrospinning, mechanical endurance, flexible supercapacitor

Procedia PDF Downloads 273
78 Attracting the North Holidaymaker to Ireland Using Social Media Channels: An Irish Marketing Strategy

Authors: Colm Barcoe, Garvan Whelan

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In tourism, engagement has been found to boost awareness of a destination and subsequently increase visits. Customer engagement in this industry is now facilitated by social media. This phenomenon is not very well researched in relation to Ireland and the North American tourism market. The objective of this paper is to present research findings on two related topics; the first is an investigation into the effectiveness of social media channels as components of a digital marketing campaign when promoting Ireland as a brand in North America. Secondly, this study reveals how Irish marketers have embraced social media platforms and channels with an innovative strategy that has successfully attracted growing numbers of US and Canadian holidaymakers to Ireland. A range of methodological approaches was applied in order to achieve the study’s objective. The methods used were both quantitative and qualitative, and the data was obtained from both Irish marketers and North American holidaymakers. Surveys of these holidaymakers in the pre, during and post-trip phases revealed their attitudes towards social media and Ireland as a destination. Semi-structured interviews with those responsible for implementing relationship marketing strategies for this segment provide insight into the effectiveness of social media when used to capitalise on the cultural link between Ireland and North America. Further analysis involved using Nvivo 11+ software to investigate the activities of the Irish destination marketer (DMO) and the engagement of the US and Canadian audiences through a detailed study of social media platform content. The findings from this investigation will extend an under-researched body of literature pertaining to Ireland as a destination and the successful digital marketing campaigns that have achieved exponential growth in this sector over the past five years. The empirical evidence presented also illustrates how the innovative use of social media has assisted the DMO to engage with the North American holidaymaker as part of an effective digital marketing strategy.

Keywords: channels, digital, engagement, marketing, strategies

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77 Synthesis and Characterization of Anti-Psychotic Drugs Based DNA Aptamers

Authors: Shringika Soni, Utkarsh Jain, Nidhi Chauhan

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Aptamers are recently discovered ~80-100 bp long artificial oligonucleotides that not only demonstrated their applications in therapeutics; it is tremendously used in diagnostic and sensing application to detect different biomarkers and drugs. Synthesizing aptamers for proteins or genomic template is comparatively feasible in laboratory, but drugs or other chemical target based aptamers require major specification and proper optimization and validation. One has to optimize all selection, amplification, and characterization steps of the end product, which is extremely time-consuming. Therefore, we performed asymmetric PCR (polymerase chain reaction) for random oligonucleotides pool synthesis, and further use them in Systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX) for anti-psychotic drugs based aptamers synthesis. Anti-psychotic drugs are major tranquilizers to control psychosis for proper cognitive functions. Though their low medical use, their misuse may lead to severe medical condition as addiction and can promote crime in social and economical impact. In this work, we have approached the in-vitro SELEX method for ssDNA synthesis for anti-psychotic drugs (in this case ‘target’) based aptamer synthesis. The study was performed in three stages, where first stage included synthesis of random oligonucleotides pool via asymmetric PCR where end product was analyzed with electrophoresis and purified for further stages. The purified oligonucleotide pool was incubated in SELEX buffer, and further partition was performed in the next stage to obtain target specific aptamers. The isolated oligonucleotides are characterized and quantified after each round of partition, and significant results were obtained. After the repetitive partition and amplification steps of target-specific oligonucleotides, final stage included sequencing of end product. We can confirm the specific sequence for anti-psychoactive drugs, which will be further used in diagnostic application in clinical and forensic set-up.

Keywords: anti-psychotic drugs, aptamer, biosensor, ssDNA, SELEX

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76 Spatial Data Science for Data Driven Urban Planning: The Youth Economic Discomfort Index for Rome

Authors: Iacopo Testi, Diego Pajarito, Nicoletta Roberto, Carmen Greco

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Today, a consistent segment of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and this proportion will vastly increase in the next decades. Therefore, understanding the key trends in urbanization, likely to unfold over the coming years, is crucial to the implementation of sustainable urban strategies. In parallel, the daily amount of digital data produced will be expanding at an exponential rate during the following years. The analysis of various types of data sets and its derived applications have incredible potential across different crucial sectors such as healthcare, housing, transportation, energy, and education. Nevertheless, in city development, architects and urban planners appear to rely mostly on traditional and analogical techniques of data collection. This paper investigates the prospective of the data science field, appearing to be a formidable resource to assist city managers in identifying strategies to enhance the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of our urban areas. The collection of different new layers of information would definitely enhance planners' capabilities to comprehend more in-depth urban phenomena such as gentrification, land use definition, mobility, or critical infrastructural issues. Specifically, the research results correlate economic, commercial, demographic, and housing data with the purpose of defining the youth economic discomfort index. The statistical composite index provides insights regarding the economic disadvantage of citizens aged between 18 years and 29 years, and results clearly display that central urban zones and more disadvantaged than peripheral ones. The experimental set up selected the city of Rome as the testing ground of the whole investigation. The methodology aims at applying statistical and spatial analysis to construct a composite index supporting informed data-driven decisions for urban planning.

Keywords: data science, spatial analysis, composite index, Rome, urban planning, youth economic discomfort index

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75 Nonstationary Modeling of Extreme Precipitation in the Wei River Basin, China

Authors: Yiyuan Tao

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Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, non-stationary, Wei River Basin

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74 Bacteriophage Lysis Of Physiologically Stressed Listeria Monocytogenes In A Simulated Seafood Processing Environment

Authors: Geevika J. Ganegama Arachchi, Steve H. Flint, Lynn McIntyre, Cristina D. Cruz, Beatrice M. Dias-Wanigasekera, Craig Billington, J. Andrew Hudson, Anthony N. Mutukumira

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In seafood processing plants, Listeriamonocytogenes(L. monocytogenes)likely exists in a metabolically stressed state due to the nutrient-deficient environment, processing treatments such as heating, curing, drying, and freezing, and exposure to detergents and disinfectants. Stressed L. monocytogenes cells have been shown to be as pathogenic as unstressed cells. This study investigated lytic efficacy of (LiMN4L, LiMN4p, and LiMN17) which were previouslycharacterized as virulent against physiologically stressed cells of three seafood borne L. monocytogenesstrains (19CO9, 19DO3, and 19EO3).Physiologically compromised cells ofL. monocytogenesstrains were prepared by aging cultures in TrypticaseSoy Broth at 15±1°C for 72 h; heat injuringcultures at 54±1 - 55±1°C for 40 - 60 min;salt-stressing cultures in Milli-Q water were incubated at 25±1°C in darkness for three weeks; and incubating cultures in 9% (w/v) NaCl at 15±1°C for 72 h. Low concentrations of physiologically compromised cells of three L. monocytogenesstrainswere challenged in vitrowith high titre of three phages in separate experiments using Fish Broth medium (aqueous fish extract) at 15 °C in order to mimic the environment of seafood processing plant. Each phage, when present at ≈9 log10 PFU/ml, reduced late exponential phase cells of L. monocytogenes suspended in fish protein broth at ≈2-3 log10 CFU/ml to a non-detectable level (< 10 CFU/ml). Each phage, when present at ≈8.5 log10 PFU/ml, reduced both heat-injured cells present at 2.5-3.6 log10 CFU/ml and starved cells that were showed coccoid shape, present at ≈2-3 log10 CFU/ml to < 10 CFU/ml after 30 min. Phages also reduced salt-stressed cellspresent at ≈3 log10 CFU/ml by > 2 log10. L. monocytogenes (≈8 log10 CFU/ml) were reduced to below the detection limit (1 CFU/ml) by the three successive phage infections over 16 h, indicating that emergence of spontaneous phage resistance was infrequent. The three virulent phages showed high decontamination potential for physiologically stressed L. monocytogenes strains from seafood processing environments.

Keywords: physiologically stressed L. monocytogenes, heat injured, seafood processing environment, virulent phage

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73 Photovoltaic Solar Energy in Public Buildings: A Showcase for Society

Authors: Eliane Ferreira da Silva

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This paper aims to mobilize and sensitize public administration leaders to good practices and encourage investment in the PV system in Brazil. It presents a case study methodology for dimensioning the PV system in the roofs of the public buildings of the Esplanade of the Ministries, Brasilia, capital of the country, with predefined resources, starting with the Sustainable Esplanade Project (SEP), of the exponential growth of photovoltaic solar energy in the world and making a comparison with the solar power plant of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), active since: 6/10/2016. In order to do so, it was necessary to evaluate the energy efficiency of the buildings in the period from January 2016 to April 2017, (16 months) identifying the opportunities to reduce electric energy expenses, through the adjustment of contracted demand, the tariff framework and correction of existing active energy. The instrument used to collect data on electric bills was the e-SIC citizen information system. The study considered in addition to the technical and operational aspects, the historical, cultural, architectural and climatic aspects, involved by several actors. Identifying the reductions of expenses, the study directed to the following aspects: Case 1) economic feasibility for exchanges of common lamps, for LED lamps, and, Case 2) economic feasibility for the implementation of photovoltaic solar system connected to the grid. For the case 2, PV*SOL Premium Software was used to simulate several possibilities of photovoltaic panels, analyzing the best performance, according to local characteristics, such as solar orientation, latitude, annual average solar radiation. A simulation of an ideal photovoltaic solar system was made, with due calculations of its yield, to provide a compensation of the energy expenditure of the building - or part of it - through the use of the alternative source in question. The study develops a methodology for public administration, as a major consumer of electricity, to act in a responsible, fiscalizing and incentive way in reducing energy waste, and consequently reducing greenhouse gases.

Keywords: energy efficiency, esplanade of ministries, photovoltaic solar energy, public buildings, sustainable building

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72 Parameter Estimation of Gumbel Distribution with Maximum-Likelihood Based on Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno Quasi-Newton

Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani

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Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.

Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton

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71 Management of Acute Appendicitis with Preference on Delayed Primary Suturing of Surgical Incision

Authors: N. A. D. P. Niwunhella, W. G. R. C. K. Sirisena

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Appendicitis is one of the most encountered abdominal emergencies worldwide. Proper clinical diagnosis and appendicectomy with minimal post operative complications are therefore priorities. Aim of this study was to ascertain the overall management of acute appendicitis in Sri Lanka in special preference to delayed primary suturing of the surgical site, comparing other local and international treatment outcomes. Data were collected prospectively from 155 patients who underwent appendicectomy following clinical and radiological diagnosis with ultrasonography. Histological assessment was done for all the specimens. All perforated appendices were managed with delayed primary closure. Patients were followed up for 28 days to assess complications. Mean age of patient presentation was 27 years; mean pre-operative waiting time following admission was 24 hours; average hospital stay was 72 hours; accuracy of clinical diagnosis of appendicitis as confirmed by histology was 87.1%; post operative wound infection rate was 8.3%, and among them 5% had perforated appendices; 4 patients had post operative complications managed without re-opening. There was no fistula formation or mortality reported. Current study was compared with previously published data: a comparison on management of acute appendicitis in Sri Lanka vs. United Kingdom (UK). The diagnosis of current study was equally accurate, but post operative complications were significantly reduced - (current study-9.6%, compared Sri Lankan study-16.4%; compared UK study-14.1%). During the recent years, there has been an exponential rise in the use of Computerised Tomography (CT) imaging in the assessment of patients with acute appendicitis. Even though, the diagnostic accuracy without using CT, and treatment outcome of acute appendicitis in this study match other local studies as well as with data compared to UK. Therefore CT usage has not increased the diagnostic accuracy of acute appendicitis significantly. Especially, delayed primary closure may have reduced post operative wound infection rate for ruptured appendices, therefore suggest this approach for further evaluation as a safer and an effective practice in other hospitals worldwide as well.

Keywords: acute appendicitis, computerised tomography, diagnostic accuracy, delayed primary closure

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70 Optimising Post-Process Heat Treatments of Selective Laser Melting-Produced Ti-6Al-4V Parts to Achieve Superior Mechanical Properties

Authors: Gerrit Ter Haar, Thorsten Becker, Deborah Blaine

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The Additive Manufacturing (AM) process of Selective Laser Melting (SLM) has seen an exponential growth in sales and development in the past fifteen years. Whereas the capability of SLM was initially limited to rapid prototyping, progress in research and development (R&D) has allowed SLM to be capable of fully functional parts. This technology is still at a primitive stage and technical knowledge of the vast number of variables influencing final part quality is limited. Ongoing research and development of the sensitive printing process and post processes is of utmost importance in order to qualify SLM parts to meet international standards. Quality concerns in Ti-6Al-4V manufactured through SLM has been identified, which include: high residual stresses, part porosity, low ductility and anisotropic mechanical properties. Whereas significant quality improvements have been made through optimising printing parameters, research indicates as-produced part ductility to be a major limiting factor when compared to its wrought counterpart. This study aims at achieving an in-depth understanding of the underlining links between SLM produced Ti-6Al-4V microstructure and its mechanical properties. Knowledge of microstructural transformation kinetics of Ti-6Al-4V allows for the optimisation of post-process heat treatments thereby achieving the required process route to manufacture high quality SLM produced Ti-6Al-4V parts. Experimental methods used to evaluate the kinematics of microstructural transformation of SLM Ti-6Al-4V are: optical microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction. Results show that a low-temperature heat treatment is capable of transforming the as-produced, martensitic microstructure into a duel-phase microstructure exhibiting both a high strength and improved ductility. Furthermore, isotropy of mechanical properties can be achieved through certain annealing routes. Mechanical properties identical to that of wrought Ti-6Al-4V can, therefore, be achieved through an optimised process route.

Keywords: EBSD analysis, heat treatments, microstructural characterisation, selective laser melting, tensile behaviour, Ti-6Al-4V

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69 An Investigative Study into Good Governance in the Non-Profit Sector in South Africa: A Systems Approach Perspective

Authors: Frederick M. Dumisani Xaba, Nokuthula G. Khanyile

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There is a growing demand for greater accountability, transparency and ethical conduct based on sound governance principles in the developing world. Funders, donors and sponsors are increasingly demanding more transparency, better value for money and adherence to good governance standards. The drive towards improved governance measures is largely influenced by the need to ‘plug the leaks’, deal with malfeasance, engender greater levels of accountability and good governance and to ultimately attract further funding or investment. This is the case with the Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs) in South Africa in general, and in the province of KwaZulu-Natal in particular. The paper draws from the good governance theory, stakeholder theory and systems thinking to critically examine the requirements for good governance for the NPO sector from a theoretical and legislative point and to systematically looks at the contours of governance currently among the NPOs. The paper did this through the rigorous examination of the vignettes of cases of governance among selected NPOs based in KwaZulu-Natal. The study used qualitative and quantitative research methodologies through document analysis, literature review, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and statistical analysis from the various primary and secondary sources. It found some good cases of good governance but also found frightening levels of poor governance. There was an exponential growth of NPOs registered during the period under review, equally so there was an increase in cases of non-compliance to good governance practices. NPOs operate in an increasingly complex environment. There is contestation for influence and access to resources. Stakeholder management is poorly conceptualized and executed. Recognizing that the NPO sector operates in an environment characterized by complexity, constant changes, unpredictability, contestation, diversity and divergent views of different stakeholders, there is a need to apply legislative and systems thinking approaches to strengthen governance to withstand this turbulence through a capacity development model that recognizes these contextual and environmental challenges.

Keywords: good governance, non-profit organizations, stakeholder theory, systems theory

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68 On the Survival of Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the United Kingdom: A Retrospective Case-Control Study

Authors: Njabulo Ncube, Elena Kulinskaya, Nicholas Steel, Dmitry Pshezhetskiy

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Life expectancy in the United Kingdom (UK) has been near constant since 2010, particularly for the individuals of 65 years and older. This trend has been also noted in several other countries. This slowdown in the increase of life expectancy was concurrent with the increase in the number of deaths caused by non-communicable diseases. Of particular concern is the world-wide exponential increase in the number of diabetes related deaths. Previous studies have reported increased mortality hazards among diabetics compared to non-diabetics, and on the differing effects of antidiabetic drugs on mortality hazards. This study aimed to estimate the all-cause mortality hazards and related life expectancies among type 2 diabetes (T2DM) patients in the UK using the time-variant Gompertz-Cox model with frailty. The study also aimed to understand the major causes of the change in life expectancy growth in the last decade. A total of 221 182 (30.8% T2DM, 57.6% Males) individuals aged 50 years and above, born between 1930 and 1960, inclusive, and diagnosed between 2000 and 2016, were selected from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database of the UK primary care data and followed up to 31 December 2016. About 13.4% of participants died during the follow-up period. The overall all-cause mortality hazard ratio of T2DM compared to non-diabetic controls was 1.467 (1.381-1.558) and 1.38 (1.307-1.457) when diagnosed between 50 to 59 years and 60 to 74 years, respectively. The estimated life expectancies among T2DM individuals without further comorbidities diagnosed at the age of 60 years were 2.43 (1930-1939 birth cohort), 2.53 (1940-1949 birth cohort) and 3.28 (1950-1960 birth cohort) years less than those of non-diabetic controls. However, the 1950-1960 birth cohort had a steeper hazard function compared to the 1940-1949 birth cohort for both T2DM and non-diabetic individuals. In conclusion, mortality hazards for people with T2DM continue to be higher than for non-diabetics. The steeper mortality hazard slope for the 1950-1960 birth cohort might indicate the sub-population contributing to a slowdown in the growth of the life expectancy.

Keywords: T2DM, Gompetz-Cox model with frailty, all-cause mortality, life expectancy

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67 Dynamic Modeling of the Impact of Chlorine on Aquatic Species in Urban Lake Ecosystem

Authors: Zhiqiang Yan, Chen Fan, Yafei Wang, Beicheng Xia

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Urban lakes play an invaluable role in urban water systems such as flood control, water supply, and public recreation. However, over 38% of the urban lakes have suffered from severe eutrophication in China. Chlorine that could remarkably inhibit the growth of phytoplankton in eutrophic, has been widely used in the agricultural, aquaculture and industry in the recent past. However, little information has been reported regarding the effects of chlorine on the lake ecosystem, especially on the main aquatic species.To investigate the ecological response of main aquatic species and system stability to chlorine interference in shallow urban lakes, a mini system dynamic model was developed based on the competition and predation of main aquatic species and total phosphorus circulation. The main species of submerged macrophyte, phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, spiroggra and total phosphorus in water and sediment were used as variables in the model,while the interference of chlorine on phytoplankton was represented by an exponential attenuation equation. Furthermore, the eco-exergy expressing the development degree of ecosystem was used to quantify the complexity of the shallow urban lake. The model was validated using the data collected in the Lotus Lake in Guangzhoufrom1 October 2015 to 31 January 2016.The correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) and index of agreement (IOA) were calculated to evaluate accuracy and reliability of the model.The simulated values showed good qualitative agreement with the measured values of all components. The model results showed that chlorine had a notable inhibitory effect on Microcystis aeruginos,Rachionus plicatilis, Diaphanosoma brachyurum Liévin and Mesocyclops leuckarti (Claus).The outbreak of Spiroggra.spp. inhibited the growth of Vallisneria natans (Lour.) Hara, leading to a gradual decrease of eco-exergy and the breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. This study gives important insight into using chlorine to achieve eutrophication control and understand mechanism process.

Keywords: system dynamic model, urban lake, chlorine, eco-exergy

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66 Geographic Information System Cloud for Sustainable Digital Water Management: A Case Study

Authors: Mohamed H. Khalil

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Water is one of the most crucial elements which influence human lives and development. Noteworthy, over the last few years, GIS plays a significant role in optimizing water management systems, especially after exponential developing in this sector. In this context, the Egyptian government initiated an advanced ‘GIS-Web Based System’. This system is efficiently designed to tangibly assist and optimize the complement and integration of data between departments of Call Center, Operation and Maintenance, and laboratory. The core of this system is a unified ‘Data Model’ for all the spatial and tabular data of the corresponding departments. The system is professionally built to provide advanced functionalities such as interactive data collection, dynamic monitoring, multi-user editing capabilities, enhancing data retrieval, integrated work-flow, different access levels, and correlative information record/track. Noteworthy, this cost-effective system contributes significantly not only in the completeness of the base-map (93%), the water network (87%) in high level of details GIS format, enhancement of the performance of the customer service, but also in reducing the operating costs/day-to-day operations (~ 5-10 %). In addition, the proposed system facilitates data exchange between different departments (Call Center, Operation and Maintenance, and laboratory), which allowed a better understanding/analyzing of complex situations. Furthermore, this system reflected tangibly on: (i) dynamic environmental monitor/water quality indicators (ammonia, turbidity, TDS, sulfate, iron, pH, etc.), (ii) improved effectiveness of the different water departments, (iii) efficient deep advanced analysis, (iv) advanced web-reporting tools (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annually), (v) tangible planning synthesizing spatial and tabular data; and finally, (vi) scalable decision support system. It is worth to highlight that the proposed future plan (second phase) of this system encompasses scalability will extend to include integration with departments of Billing and SCADA. This scalability will comprise advanced functionalities in association with the existing one to allow further sustainable contributions.

Keywords: GIS Web-Based, base-map, water network, decision support system

Procedia PDF Downloads 77