Search results for: shadow prices
320 Economic Forecasting Analysis for Solar Photovoltaic Application
Authors: Enas R. Shouman
Abstract:
Economic development with population growth is leading to a continuous increase in energy demand. At the same time, growing global concern for the environment is driving to decrease the use of conventional energy sources and to increase the use of renewable energy sources. The objective of this study is to present the market trends of solar energy photovoltaic technology over the world and to represent economics methods for PV financial analyzes on the basis of expectations for the expansion of PV in many applications. In the course of this study, detailed information about the current PV market was gathered and analyzed to find factors influencing the penetration of PV energy. The paper methodology depended on five relevant economic financial analysis methods that are often used for investment decisions maker. These methods are payback analysis, net benefit analysis, saving-to-investment ratio, adjusted internal rate of return, and life-cycle cost. The results of this study may be considered as a marketing guide that helps diffusion of using PV Energy. The study showed that PV cost is economically reliable. The consumers will pay higher purchase prices for PV system installation but will get lower electricity bill.Keywords: photovoltaic, financial methods, solar energy, economics, PV panel
Procedia PDF Downloads 109319 Using 3D Satellite Imagery to Generate a High Precision Canopy Height Model
Authors: M. Varin, A. M. Dubois, R. Gadbois-Langevin, B. Chalghaf
Abstract:
Good knowledge of the physical environment is essential for an integrated forest planning. This information enables better forecasting of operating costs, determination of cutting volumes, and preservation of ecologically sensitive areas. The use of satellite images in stereoscopic pairs gives the capacity to generate high precision 3D models, which are scale-adapted for harvesting operations. These models could represent an alternative to 3D LiDAR data, thanks to their advantageous cost of acquisition. The objective of the study was to assess the quality of stereo-derived canopy height models (CHM) in comparison to a traditional LiDAR CHM and ground tree-height samples. Two study sites harboring two different forest stand types (broadleaf and conifer) were analyzed using stereo pairs and tri-stereo images from the WorldView-3 satellite to calculate CHM. Acquisition of multispectral images from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was also realized on a smaller part of the broadleaf study site. Different algorithms using two softwares (PCI Geomatica and Correlator3D) with various spatial resolutions and band selections were tested to select the 3D modeling technique, which offered the best performance when compared with LiDAR. In the conifer study site, the CHM produced with Corelator3D using only the 50-cm resolution panchromatic band was the one with the smallest Root-mean-square deviation (RMSE: 1.31 m). In the broadleaf study site, the tri-stereo model provided slightly better performance, with an RMSE of 1.2 m. The tri-stereo model was also compared to the UAV, which resulted in an RMSE of 1.3 m. At individual tree level, when ground samples were compared to satellite, lidar, and UAV CHM, RMSE were 2.8, 2.0, and 2.0 m, respectively. Advanced analysis was done for all of these cases, and it has been noted that RMSE is reduced when the canopy cover is higher when shadow and slopes are lower and when clouds are distant from the analyzed site.Keywords: very high spatial resolution, satellite imagery, WorlView-3, canopy height models, CHM, LiDAR, unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV
Procedia PDF Downloads 126318 Testing the Weak Form Efficiency of Islamic Stock Market: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia
Authors: Herjuno Bagus Wicaksono, Emma Almira Fauni, Salma Amelia Dina
Abstract:
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that, in an efficient capital market, price fully reflects the information available in the market. This theory has influenced many investors behavior in trading in the stock market. Advanced researches have been conducted to test the efficiency of the stock market in particular countries. Indonesia, as one of the emerging countries, has performed substantial growth in the past years. Hence, this paper aims to examine the efficiency of Islamic stock market in Indonesia in its weak form. The daily stock price data from Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) for the period October 2015 to October 2016 were used to do the statistical tests: Run Test and Serial Correlation Test. The results show that there is no serial correlation between the current price with the past prices and the market follows the random walk. This research concludes that Indonesia Islamic stock market is weak form efficient.Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, Indonesia sharia stock index, random walk, weak form efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 460317 Mathematical Model of Corporate Bond Portfolio and Effective Border Preview
Authors: Sergey Podluzhnyy
Abstract:
One of the most important tasks of investment and pension fund management is building decision support system which helps to make right decision on corporate bond portfolio formation. Today there are several basic methods of bond portfolio management. They are duration management, immunization and convexity management. Identified methods have serious disadvantage: they do not take into account credit risk or insolvency risk of issuer. So, identified methods can be applied only for management and evaluation of high-quality sovereign bonds. Applying article proposes mathematical model for building an optimal in case of risk and yield corporate bond portfolio. Proposed model takes into account the default probability in formula of assessment of bonds which results to more correct evaluation of bonds prices. Moreover, applied model provides tools for visualization of the efficient frontier of corporate bonds portfolio taking into account the exposure to credit risk, which will increase the quality of the investment decisions of portfolio managers.Keywords: corporate bond portfolio, default probability, effective boundary, portfolio optimization task
Procedia PDF Downloads 318316 Evaluating The Effects of Fundamental Analysis on Earnings Per Share Concept in Stock Valuation in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Market
Authors: Brian Basvi
Abstract:
A technique for analyzing a security's intrinsic value is called fundamental analysis. It involves looking at relevant financial, economic, and other qualitative and quantitative aspects. Earnings Per Share (EPS), a crucial metric in fundamental analysis, is calculated by dividing a company's net income by the total number of outstanding shares. With more than 70 listed businesses, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) is the primary stock exchange in Zimbabwe. This study applies the EPS financial ratio and stock valuation techniques to historical stock data from 68 companies listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. According to a ZSE study, EPS significantly affects share prices that are listed on the market. The study's objective was to assess how fundamental analysis affected the idea of EPS in ZSE stock valuation. It concluded that EPS is an important consideration for investors when they make judgments about their investments. According to the study's findings, fundamental analysis is a useful tool for ZSE investors since it offers insightful information about a company's financial performance and aids in decision-making. Investors can have a better understanding of a company's underlying worth and prospects for future growth by looking into EPS and other basic aspects.Keywords: fundamental analysis, stock valuation, EPS, share pricing
Procedia PDF Downloads 43315 Correlation between Fuel Consumption and Voyage Related Ship Operational Energy Efficiency Measures: An Analysis from Noon Data
Authors: E. Bal Beşikçi, O. Arslan
Abstract:
Fuel saving has become one of the most important issue for shipping in terms of fuel economy and environmental impact. Lowering fuel consumption is possible for both new ships and existing ships through enhanced energy efficiency measures, technical and operational respectively. The limitations of applying technical measures due to the long payback duration raise the potential of operational changes for energy efficient ship operations. This study identifies operational energy efficiency measures related voyage performance management. We use ‘noon’ data to examine the correlation between fuel consumption and operational parameters- revolutions per minute (RPM), draft, trim, (beaufort number) BN and relative wind direction, which are used as measures of ship energy efficiency. The results of this study reveal that speed optimization is the most efficient method as fuel consumption depends heavily on RPM. In conclusion, this study will provide ship operators with the strategic approach for evaluating the priority of the operational energy efficiency measures against high fuel prices and carbon emissions.Keywords: ship, voyage related operational energy Efficiency measures, fuel consumption, pearson's correlation coefficient
Procedia PDF Downloads 616314 Conceptual Design of Low Energy Consumption House in Khartoum, Sudan
Authors: Sawsan M. H. Domi
Abstract:
Approximately 50% of the energy used in buildings, including houses, provide environmental comfortable levels of thermal living. In Khartoum - the city under study- cooling uses the largest portion of energy and the basic idea of Low energy houses is to minimize energy consumption. Therefore, houses are designed to use natural climate strategies to provide thermal comfort. Strategies such as semi-open spaces, shading devices, small high windows and thick walls. The study aims to review these strategies and then, apply them. It aims to change house microclimate by using vegetation, green areas, and other components. A low energy house is being designed s. It will be the first low energy house in Khartoum designed to create a low-cost energy efficient building without any mechanical systems. Three different types of houses in Khartoum are examined and evaluated according to their energy loads which provides the basis for the designed house. The designed house uses passive design strategies to reduce the need for cooling. These results show that the house reduced energy cooling loads by more than 60% compared to the average of the three given types. The design house is economically viable when taking into consideration the energy prices in Sudan.Keywords: building envelope, climate, energy loads, ventilation
Procedia PDF Downloads 243313 Analysis and Evaluation of Both AC and DC Standalone Photovoltaic Supply to Ethio-Telecom Access Layer Devices: The Case of Multi-Service Access Gateway in Adama
Authors: Frie Ayalew, Seada Hussen
Abstract:
Ethio-telecom holds a variety of telecom devices that needs a consistent power source to be operational. The company got this power mainly from the national grid and used this power source alone or with a generator and/or batteries as a backup. In addition, for off-grid or remote areas, the company commonly uses generators and batteries. But unstable diesel prices, huge expenses of fuel and transportation, and high carbon emissions are the main problems associated with fuel energy. So, the design of solar power with battery backup is a highly recommended and advantageous source for the next coming years. This project designs the AC and DC standalone photovoltaic supply to Ethio-telecom access layer devices for the case of multi-service access gateway in Adama. The design is done by using Homer software for both AC and DC loads. The project shows that the design of a solar based microgrid is the best option for the designed area.Keywords: solar power, battery, inverter, Ethio-telecom, solar radiation
Procedia PDF Downloads 82312 Risk Aversion and Dynamic Games between Hydroelectric Operators under Uncertainty
Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini
Abstract:
This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams
Procedia PDF Downloads 354311 The Revealed Preference Methods in Economic Valuation of Environmental Goods: A Review
Authors: Sara Sousa
Abstract:
The environmental goods and services have often been neglected in crucial decisions affecting the environment mainly because the difficulty in estimating their economic value, since we are dealing with non-market goods and, thus, without a price associated. Nevertheless, the inexistence of prices does not necessarily mean these goods have no value. The environment is a key element in today's society that seeks to be as sustainable as possible, where the environmental assets have both use and non-use values. To estimate the use value, researchers may apply the revealed preference methods. This paper provides a theoretical review of the main concepts and methodologies on the economic valuation of the environment, with particular emphasis on the revealed preference techniques. Based on a detailed literature review, this study concludes that, despite some inherent limitations, the revealed preference methodologies – travel cost, hedonic price, and averting behaviour – represent essential tools for the researchers who accept the challenge to estimate the use value of environmental goods and services based on the actual individuals` behaviour. The main purpose of this study is to contribute to an increased theoretical information on the economic valuation of environmental assets, allowing researchers and policymakers to improve future decisions regarding the environment.Keywords: economic valuation, environmental goods, revealed preference methods, total economic value
Procedia PDF Downloads 130310 Constructability Driven Engineering in Oil and Gas Projects
Authors: Srikanth Nagarajan, P. Parthasarathy, Frits Lagers
Abstract:
Lower crude oil prices increased the pressure on oil and gas projects. Being competitive becomes very important and critical for the success in any industry. Increase in size of the project multiplies the magnitude of the issue. Timely completion of projects within the budget and schedule is very important for any project to succeed. A simple idea makes a larger impact on the total cost of the plant. In this robust world, the phases of engineering right from licensing technology, feed, different phases of detail engineering, procurement and construction has been so much compressed that they overlap with each other. Hence constructability techniques have become very important. Here in this paper, the focus will be on how these techniques can be implemented and reduce cost with the help of a case study. Constructability is a process driven by the need to impact project’s construction phase resulting in improved project delivery, costs and schedule. In construction phase of one of our fast-track mega project, it was noticed that there was an opportunity to reduce significant amount of cost and schedule by implementing Constructability study processes. In this case study, the actual methodology adopted during engineering and construction and the way for doing it better by implementing Constructability techniques with collaborative engineering efforts will be explained.Keywords: being competitive, collaborative engineering, constructability, cost reduction
Procedia PDF Downloads 420309 Mine Project Evaluations in the Rising of Uncertainty: Real Options Analysis
Authors: I. Inthanongsone, C. Drebenstedt, J. C. Bongaerts, P. Sontamino
Abstract:
The major concern in evaluating the value of mining projects related to the deficiency of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method. This method does not take uncertainties into account and, hence it does not allow for an economic assessment of managerial flexibility and operational adaptability, which are increasingly determining long-term corporate success. Such an assessment can be performed with the real options valuation (ROV) approach, since it allows for a comparative evaluation of unforeseen uncertainties in a project life cycle. This paper presents an economic evaluation model for open pit mining projects based on real options valuation approach. Uncertainties in the model are caused by metal prices and cost uncertainties and the system dynamics (SD) modeling method is used to structure and solve the real options model. The model is applied to a case study. It can be shown that that managerial flexibility reacting to uncertainties may create additional value to a mining project in comparison to the outcomes of a DCF method. One important insight for management dealing with uncertainty is seen in choosing the optimal time to exercise strategic options.Keywords: DCF methods, ROV approach, system dynamics modeling methods, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 500308 Proposed Location of Grid Connected Wind-Pv Hybrid System Based on Load Flow and Voltage Stability Indices Study
Authors: Bazilah Ismail, Muhammad Mat Naain, Ibrahim Alhamrouni, Lilik Jamilatul Awalin, Fadi Albatsh, Mohd Fairuz Abdul Hamid
Abstract:
Rapid depletion and prices of the conventional energy sources have stimulated the development of the renewable energy source (RES). Due to the unpredicted and intermittent nature of RES, the hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) is the best solution to complement the nature of the respective sources, and the combination of the wind and solar energy is rapidly gaining popularity. The significant challenges on the operation and planning of the grid system with a high HRES penetration has become an important subject since the location of HRES plant give impact towards the existing system. This paper aims to propose the location of the grid connected Wind-PV hybrid plant (WPHP) based on load flow and voltage stability indices study. Several case studies are carried out using IEEE 14 bus system, and the system is modeled and tested in DigSILENT PowerFactory.Keywords: hybrid renewable energy system, wind farm, photovoltaic system, voltage stability and load flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 314307 Future Outlook and Current Situation for Security of Gas Supply in Eastern Baltic Region
Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel
Abstract:
The growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012, almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price, and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.Keywords: security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package
Procedia PDF Downloads 262306 Impact of Exogenous Risk Factors into Actual Construction Price in PPP Projects
Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine
Abstract:
Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)
Procedia PDF Downloads 557305 Applying Genetic Algorithm in Exchange Rate Models Determination
Authors: Mehdi Rostamzadeh
Abstract:
Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are an adaptive heuristic search algorithm premised on the evolutionary ideas of natural selection and genetic. In this study, we apply GAs for fundamental and technical models of exchange rate determination in exchange rate market. In this framework, we estimated absolute and relative purchasing power parity, Mundell-Fleming, sticky and flexible prices (monetary models), equilibrium exchange rate and portfolio balance model as fundamental models and Auto Regressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), Auto-Regressive with Moving Average (ARMA) and Mean Reversion (MR) as technical models for Iranian Rial against European Union’s Euro using monthly data from January 1992 to December 2014. Then, we put these models into the genetic algorithm system for measuring their optimal weight for each model. These optimal weights have been measured according to four criteria i.e. R-Squared (R2), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE).Based on obtained Results, it seems that for explaining of Iranian Rial against EU Euro exchange rate behavior, fundamental models are better than technical models.Keywords: exchange rate, genetic algorithm, fundamental models, technical models
Procedia PDF Downloads 273304 Market Illiquidity and Pricing Errors in the Term Structure of CDS
Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia, Pedro Serrano
Abstract:
This paper studies the informational content of pricing errors in the term structure of sovereign CDS spreads. The residuals from a non-arbitrage model are employed to construct a Price discrepancy estimate, or noise measure. The noise estimate is understood as an indicator of market distress and reflects frictions such as illiquidity. Empirically, the noise measure is computed for an extensive panel of CDS spreads. Our results reveal an important fraction of systematic risk is not priced in default swap contracts. When projecting the noise measure onto a set of financial variables, the panel-data estimates show that greater price discrepancies are systematically related to a higher level of offsetting transactions of CDS contracts. This evidence suggests that arbitrage capital flows exit the marketplace during time of distress, and this consistent with a market segmentation among investors and arbitrageurs where professional arbitrageurs are particularly ineffective at bringing prices to their fundamental values during turbulent periods. Our empirical findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry.Keywords: credit default swaps, noise measure, illiquidity, capital arbitrage
Procedia PDF Downloads 569303 Development of Multi-Leaf Collimator-Based Isocenter Verification Tool Using Electrical Portal Imaging Device for Stereotactic Radiosurgery
Authors: Panatda Intanin, Sangutid Thongsawad, Chirapha Tannanonta, Todsaporn Fuangrod
Abstract:
Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is a highly precision delivery technique that requires comprehensive quality assurance (QA) tests prior to treatment delivery. An isocenter of delivery beam plays a critical role that affect the treatment accuracy. The uncertainty of isocenter is traditionally accessed using circular cone equipment, Winston-Lutz (WL) phantom and film. This technique is considered time consuming and highly dependent on the observer. In this work, the development of multileaf collimator (MLC)-based isocenter verification tool using electronic portal imaging device (EPID) was proposed and evaluated. A mechanical isocenter alignment with ball bearing diameter 5 mm and circular cone diameter 10 mm fixed to gantry head defines the radiation field was set as the conventional WL test method. The conventional setup was to compare to the proposed setup; using MLC (10 x 10 mm) to define the radiation filed instead of cone. This represents more realistic delivery field than using circular cone equipment. The acquisition from electronic portal imaging device (EPID) and radiographic film were performed in both experiments. The gantry angles were set as following: 0°, 90°, 180° and 270°. A software tool was in-house developed using MATLAB/SIMULINK programming to determine the centroid of radiation field and shadow of WL phantom automatically. This presents higher accuracy than manual measurement. The deviation between centroid of both cone-based and MLC-based WL tests were quantified. To compare between film and EPID image, the deviation for all gantry angle was 0.26±0.19mm and 0.43±0.30 for cone-based and MLC-based WL tests. For the absolute deviation calculation on EPID images between cone and MLC-based WL test was 0.59±0.28 mm and the absolute deviation on film images was 0.14±0.13 mm. Therefore, the MLC-based isocenter verification using EPID present high sensitivity tool for SRS QA.Keywords: isocenter verification, quality assurance, EPID, SRS
Procedia PDF Downloads 152302 The Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Accounting and Finance
Authors: Evrime Fawzy Ishak Gadelsayed
Abstract:
This paper presents resource intake accounting as an inventive manner to cope with control accounting, which concentrates on administrators as the crucial customers of the information and offers satisfactory statistics of conventional control accounting. This machine underscores that the association's asset motivates prices; as a consequence, in costing frameworks, the emphasis ought to be on assets and their usage. Resource consumption accounting consolidates two costing methodologies, action-based totally and the German cost accounting approach called GPK. This methodology, however, is a danger to managers when making the management accounting undertaking operational. The motive for this article is to clarify the concept of resource intake accounting, its elements and highlights and use of this approach in associations. Inside the first area, we present useful resource consumption accounting, the basis, reasons for its improvement, and the issues that are faced beyond costing frameworks. At that point, we deliver the requirements and presumptions of this approach; ultimately, we depict the execution of this approach in associations and its preferences over other costing techniques.Keywords: financial statement fraud, forensic accounting, fraud prevention and detection, auditing, audit expectation gap, corporate governance resource consumption accounting, management accounting, action based method, German cost accounting method
Procedia PDF Downloads 4301 The Implementation of Animal Welfare for Garut Sheep Fighting Contest in West Java
Authors: Mustopa, Nadya R. Susilo, Rhizal D. Nuva
Abstract:
This study aims to determine the application of animal welfare in Garut sheep fighting contest at West Java. This study conducted by survey and discussion methods with 5 Garut sheep owners in the contest. The animal welfare is going to be proved by observing the condition of the cage, the cleanliness of it, the health of the sheep, feeding and water, also owner treatments for their sheep that will be served as a fighter. Observations made using stable conditions ACRES form with assessment scores ranged from 1 = very poor, 2 = poor, 3 = regular, 4 = good and 5 = very good, animal welfare conditions seen by conducting observations and interviews with garut sheep owners. The result shows that the Garut sheep fighting contest has fulfilled the criteria of animal welfare application. Application of animal welfare principle by the owner of Garut sheep terms of ACRES (Animal Concerns Research and Education Society) below standard, the average score obtained was 1.76 which is mean in a very bad ratings. Besides considering the animal welfare application, sheep owners also do special treatments for their Garut sheep with the purpose to produce fighters that are healthy and strong. So, if the sheep wins in Garut sheep fight contest, it will purchase a high-value prices.Keywords: animal welfare, contest, garut sheep, sheep fighting
Procedia PDF Downloads 278300 An Analyze on ISIS Terror Organization: The Reasons That Emerged ISIS and Its Effects on Both Local and Global Security
Authors: Serkan Kocapinar
Abstract:
Since June 2014, the extremist terrorist group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, with its financial resources, as well as the world’s richest in terms of human resources, is a terrorist organization utilizing the most advanced weapons. It has established a state in the occupied region, appointed provincial and district managers, and declared the so-called Caliphate. Despite being a terrorist organization, it is selling the oil which it has seized from the captured regions with low prices. Consequently, it has been achieving great income from these sales. Currently the actual number of terrorists in the area is around from 20,000 to 31,000 according to the CIA assessment. It is estimated that it has extended its domain beyond from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific coast and has had millions of supporters worldwide. In addition, it is claimed that it has several sleeper cells in some countries and could perform very catastrophic attacks to the countries fighting against it by activating its cells when necessary. The sharp rise of ISIS in just a year has also attracted the attention of terrorist groups such as Boko Haram around the world and some groups expressed their allegiance to ISIS. With this growing power and influence, ISIS is becoming more and more effective threat for not only the region but also for the entire world. The purpose of this study is to show what lies under the rising of ISIS terror organization and how it affects the security concerns.Keywords: ISIS, security, terrorism, threats
Procedia PDF Downloads 293299 Financial Assessment of the Hard Coal Mining in the Chosen Region in the Czech Republic: Real Options Methodology Application
Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný
Abstract:
This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 548298 Beyond the Tragedy of Absence: Vizenor's Comedy of Native Presence
Authors: Mahdi Sepehrmanesh
Abstract:
This essay explores Gerald Vizenor's innovative concepts of the tragedy of absence and the comedy of presence as frameworks for understanding and challenging dominant narratives about Native American identity and history. Vizenor's work critiques the notion of irrevocable cultural loss and rigid definitions of Indigenous identity based on blood quantum and stereotypical practices. Through subversive humor, trickster figures, and storytelling, Vizenor asserts the active presence and continuance of Native peoples, advocating for a dynamic, self-determined understanding of Native identity. The essay examines Vizenor's use of postmodern techniques, including his engagement with simulation and hyperreality, to disrupt colonial discourses and create new spaces for Indigenous expression. It explores the concept of "crossblood" identities as a means of resisting essentialist notions of Native authenticity and embracing the complexities of contemporary Indigenous experiences. Vizenor's ideas of survivance and transmotion are analyzed as strategies for cultural resilience and adaptation in the face of ongoing colonial pressures. The interplay between absence and presence in Vizenor's work is discussed, particularly through the lens of shadow survivance and the power of storytelling. The essay also delves into Vizenor's critique of terminal creed and his promotion of natural reason as an alternative epistemology to Western rationalism. While acknowledging the significant influence of Vizenor's work on Native American literature and theory, the essay also addresses critiques of his approach, including concerns about the accessibility of his writing and its political effectiveness. Despite these debates, the essay argues that Vizenor's concepts offer a powerful vision of Indigenous futurity that is rooted in tradition yet open to change, inspiring hope and agency in the face of oppression. By examining Vizenor's multifaceted approach to Native American identity and presence, this essay contributes to ongoing discussions about Indigenous representation, cultural continuity, and resistance to colonial narratives in literature and beyond.Keywords: gerald vizenor, identity native american literature, survivance, trickster discourse, identity
Procedia PDF Downloads 34297 One-Step Time Series Predictions with Recurrent Neural Networks
Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin
Abstract:
Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 228296 Meditation and Insight Interpretation Using Quantum Circle Based-on Experiment and Quantum Relativity Formalism
Authors: Somnath Bhattachryya, Montree Bunruangses, Somchat Sonasang, Preecha Yupapin
Abstract:
In this study and research on meditation and insight, the design and experiment with electronic circuits to manipulate the meditators' mental circles that call the chakras to have the same size is proposed. The shape of the circuit is 4-ports, called an add-drop multiplexer, that studies the meditation structure called the four-mindfulness foundation, then uses an AC power signal as an input instead of the meditation time function, where various behaviors with the method of re-filtering the signal (successive filtering), like eight noble paths. Start by inputting a signal at a frequency that causes the velocity of the wave on the perimeter of the circuit to cause particles to have the speed of light in a vacuum. The signal changes from electromagnetic waves and matter waves according to the velocity (frequency) until it reaches the point of the relativistic limit. The electromagnetic waves are transformed into photons with properties of wave-particle overcoming the limits of the speed of light. As for the matter wave, it will travel to the other side and cannot pass through the relativistic limit, called a shadow signal (echo) that can have power from increasing speed but cannot create speed faster than light or insight. In the experiment, the only the side where the velocity is positive, only where the speed above light or the corresponding frequency indicates intelligence. Other side(echo) can be done by changing the input signal to the other side of the circuit to get the same result. But there is no intelligence or speed beyond light. It is also used to study the stretching, contraction of time and wormholes that can be applied for teleporting, Bose-Einstein condensate and teleprinting, quantum telephone. The teleporting can happen throughout the system with wave-particle and echo, which is when the speed of the particle is faster than the stretching or contraction of time, the particle will submerge in the wormhole, when the destination and time are determined, will travel through the wormhole. In a wormhole, time can determine in the future and the past. The experimental results using the microstrip circuit have been found to be by the principle of quantum relativity, which can be further developed for both tools and meditation practitioners for quantum technology.Keywords: quantu meditation, insight picture, quantum circuit, absolute time, teleportation
Procedia PDF Downloads 64295 Regulating the Emerging Platform Economy in Ethiopia: Issues in the Ride-Hailing Platforms
Authors: Nebiat Lemenih Lenger
Abstract:
Today, the digital economy is evolving faster than ever in Ethiopia. Platforms that provide a ride-hailing service are growing fast in the country. The market welcomed them as they disrupt it with quality services and lower prices. This revolution is, however, not without challenges. These include cybersecurity breaches, facilitating illegal economic activities, and challenging concepts of privacy. To mitigate the risks and utilize the benefits, appropriate regulation should be introduced in the economy. By identifying legal and institutional gaps in Ethiopia`s digital economy, this research work assists the government`s effort to create a better digital economy. Moreover, this study, being a pioneer study in the area, will be an input for further studies in academia. The research employs a qualitative legal research method and analyzes various legal and policy instruments in Ethiopia in comparison with best international experiences. As this research applies a qualitative research method, a grounded theory method of data analysis is used. The research concluded that Ethiopia is far from designing appropriate legal and regulatory infrastructures. Due to the government monopoly of the sector, there is poor digital infrastructure in the country. The existing labor laws have no specific provisions on the rights and obligations of gig workers.Keywords: Ethiopia, gig economy, digital, ride-hailing, regulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 92294 Installing Photovoltaic Panels to Generate Optimal Energy in SPAV Hostel, Vijayawada
Authors: J. Jayasuriya
Abstract:
In this research paper, a procedure for installing and assessment of a solar PV plant to generate optimal solar energy SPAV hostel at Vijayawada city was analyzed. The hostel was experiencing power disruption and had a need for an unceasing energy source. The solar panel is one of the best solutions to obtain uninterrupted clean renewable energy for an institutional building as it neither makes din nor pollutes the atmosphere. The electricity usage per month was initially measured to discriminate the energy change. The solar array was installed with its financial and environmental assessment considering recent market prices. All the aspects related to a solar PV plant were considered for the feasibility and efficiency of PV plant near this site i.e., the orientation of the site, the size and shape of the terrace, the sun path were considered while installing panels. Various precautions were taken to intercept the factors which cause interference in energy generation, with respect to temperature, overshadowing, the wiring of panels, pollution etc. The solar panels were frequently installed, monitored and maintained properly to procure optimal energy output. Result obtained with the assessment of the proposed plant and deflation in the electric bill will show the maximal energy that can be generated in a month on that particular site.Keywords: solar efficiency, building sustainability, PV panel, solar energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 136293 An Exploratory Study on Challenges of Public Private Partnership Projects in Oman
Authors: Omar Amoudi, Mariya Khalid
Abstract:
The limitation of the public funds for the infrastructure projects and with the deterioration of international oil prices and the negative consequences on the economies of oil producing and exporting countries, Oman has encouraged the partnership between the public and private sectors. As the private sector has a role in planning, financing, designing, operating and the maintenance of the public services. There is no doubt that, the adoption of Public Private Partnership (PPP) strategy faces many challenges which might affect the project seriously if it is not overcome in earlier time. These challenges depend on the level of understanding of the strategy, the roles and regulations and the availability of resources as well. This research aims at identifying the challenges facing the PPP infrastructure projects in Oman based on the similar previous studies supported by questionnaire survey and semi structured interviews. It also seeks to discuss the rationale for adoption in Oman and uncover the current status of PPP strategy. The identified challenges were ranked according to the importance index of each challenge. After analysis of data, it has observed that, the main challenges facing PPPs projects in Oman are high participation cost, high projects cost and regulation changes. The PPP strategy has to be adopted well and with a high level of experience in order to ensure a successful implementation of PPP projects in Oman.Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), challenges, infrastructure, Oman
Procedia PDF Downloads 303292 In Search of Zero Beta Assets: Evidence from the Sukuk Market
Authors: Andrea Paltrinieri, Alberto Dreassi, Stefano Miani, Alex Sclip
Abstract:
The financial crises caused a collapse in prices of most asset classes, raising the attention on alternative investments such as Sukuk, a smaller, fast growing but often misunderstood market. We study diversification benefits of Sukuk, their correlation with other asset classes and the effects of their inclusion in investment portfolios of institutional and retail investors, through a comprehensive comparison of their risk/return profiles during and after the financial crisis. We find a beneficial performance adjusted for the specific volatility together with a lower correlation especially during the financial crisis. The distribution of Sukuk returns is positively skewed and leptokurtic, with a risk/return profile similarly to high yield bonds. Overall, our results suggest that Sukuk present diversification opportunities, a significant volatility-adjusted performance and lower correlations especially during the financial crisis. Our findings are relevant for a number of institutional investors. Long term investors, such as life insurers would benefit from Sukuk’s protective features during financial crisis yet keeping return and growth opportunities, whereas banks would gain due to their role of placers, advisors, market makers or underwriters.Keywords: sukuk, zero beta asset, asset allocation, sukuk market
Procedia PDF Downloads 477291 The Martingale Options Price Valuation for European Puts Using Stochastic Differential Equation Models
Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed
Abstract:
In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula
Procedia PDF Downloads 132