Search results for: quantile regression theory

Authors: Goksel Ezgi Guzey, Bihrat Onoz

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The scarcity of streamflow gauging stations and the increasing effects of global warming cause designing water management systems to be very difficult. This study is a significant contribution to assessing regional regression models for estimating streamflow. In this study, simulated meteorological data was related to the observed streamflow data from 1971 to 2020 for 33 stream gauging stations of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Ordinary least squares regression was used to predict flow for 2020-2100 with the simulated meteorological data. CORDEX- EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were used with 0.11 and 0.22 grids, respectively, to estimate climate conditions under certain climate scenarios. Twelve meteorological variables simulated by two regional climate models, RCA4 and RegCM4, were used as independent variables in the ordinary least squares regression, where the observed streamflow was the dependent variable. The variability of streamflow was then calculated with 5-6 meteorological variables and watershed characteristics such as area and height prior to the application. Of the regression analysis of 31 stream gauging stations' data, the stations were subjected to a clustering analysis, which grouped the stations in two clusters in terms of their hydrometeorological properties. Two streamflow equations were found for the two clusters of stream gauging stations for every domain and every regional climate model, which increased the efficiency of streamflow estimation by a range of 10-15% for all the models. This study underlines the importance of homogeneity of a region in estimating streamflow not only in terms of the geographical location but also in terms of the meteorological characteristics of that region.

Keywords: hydrology, streamflow estimation, climate change, hydrologic modeling, HBV, hydropower

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Authors: Betul Zehra Karagul

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A game consists of strategies that each actor has in his/her own choice strategies, and a game regulates the certain rules in the strategies that the actors choose, express how they evaluate their knowledge and the utility of output results. Game theory examines the human behaviors (preferences) of strategic situations in which each actor of a game regards the action that others will make in spite of his own moves. There is a balance between each player playing a game with the final number of players and the player with a certain probability of choosing the players, and this is called Nash equilibrium. The insurance is a two-person game where the insurer and insured are the actors. Both sides have the right to act in favor of utility functions. The insured has to pay a premium to buy the insurance cover. The insured will want to pay a low premium while the insurer is willing to get a high premium. In this study, the state of equilibrium for insurance pricing was examined in terms of the insurer and insured with game theory.

Keywords: game theory, insurance pricing, Nash equilibrium, utility function

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Authors: Fatma Romeh, Shiferaw Gurmu

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This paper examines the impact of female education on fertility, using the change in length of primary schooling in Egypt in 1988-89 as the source of exogenous variation in schooling. In particular, beginning in 1988, children had to attend primary school for only five years rather than six years. This change was applicable to all individuals born on or after October 1977. Using a nonparametric regression discontinuity approach, we compare education and fertility of women born just before and after October 1977. The results show that female education significantly reduces the number of children born per woman and delays the time until first birth. Applying a robust regression discontinuity approach, however, the impact of education on the number of children is no longer significant. The impact on the timing of first birth remained significant under the robust approach. Each year of female education postponed childbearing by three months, on average.

Keywords: Egypt, female education, fertility, robust regression discontinuity

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Authors: Cecília M. Antão, Paulo Jorge Nogueira

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Breast cancer (BC) is the first cause of cancer mortality among Portuguese women. This retrospective observational study aimed at identifying comorbidities associated with BC female patients admitted to Portuguese public hospitals (2010-2018), investigating the effect of comorbidities on BC mortality rate, and building a predictive model using logistic regression. Results showed that the BC mortality in Portugal decreased in this period and reached 4.37% in 2018. Adjusted odds ratio indicated that secondary malignant neoplasms of liver, of bone and bone marrow, congestive heart failure, and diabetes were associated with an increased chance of dying from breast cancer. Although the Lisbon district (the most populated area) accounted for the largest percentage of BC patients, the logistic regression model showed that, besides patient’s age, being resident in Bragança, Castelo Branco, or Porto districts was directly associated with an increase of the mortality rate.

Keywords: breast cancer, comorbidities, logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio

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Authors: Yun-Xuan Tang, Pei-Yuan Liu, Kun-Mu Lu, Min-Tsung Tseng, Liang-Kuang Chen, Yuh-Feng Tsai, Ching-Wen Lee, Jay Wu

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Breast cancer is predominant of malignant tumors in females. The increase in the glandular density increases the risk of breast cancer. BI-RADS is a frequently used density indicator in mammography; however, it significantly overestimates the glandularity. Therefore, it is very important to accurately and quantitatively assess the glandularity by mammography. In this study, 20%, 30% and 50% glandularity phantoms were exposed using a mammography machine at 28, 30 and 31 kVp, and 30, 55, 80 and 105 mAs, respectively. The regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn to assess the gray level. The relationship between the glandularity and gray level under various compression thicknesses, kVp, and mAs was established by the multivariable linear regression. A phantom verification was performed with automatic exposure control (AEC). The regression equation was obtained with an R-square value of 0.928. The average gray levels of the verification phantom were 8708, 8660 and 8434 for 0.952, 0.963 and 0.985 g/cm3, respectively. The percent differences of glandularity to the regression equation were 3.24%, 2.75% and 13.7%. We concluded that the proposed method could be clinically applied in mammography to improve the glandularity estimation and further increase the importance of breast cancer screening.

Keywords: mammography, glandularity, gray value, BI-RADS

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Authors: Sade Ogundipe

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The private healthcare sector in the United Kingdom has experienced unprecedented challenges during times of crisis, necessitating effective leadership adaptability. This qualitative study delves into the dynamic landscape of leadership within the sector, particularly during crises, employing the lenses of complexity theory and institutional theory to unravel the intricate mechanisms at play. Through in-depth interviews with 25 various levels of leaders in the UK private healthcare sector, this research explores how leaders in UK private healthcare organizations navigate complex and often chaotic environments, shedding light on their adaptive strategies and decision-making processes during crises. Complexity theory is used to analyze the complicated, volatile nature of healthcare crises, emphasizing the need for adaptive leadership in such contexts. Institutional theory, on the other hand, provides insights into how external and internal institutional pressures influence leadership behavior. Findings from this study highlight the multifaceted nature of leadership adaptability, emphasizing the significance of leaders' abilities to embrace uncertainty, engage in sensemaking, and leverage the institutional environment to enact meaningful changes. Furthermore, this research sheds light on the challenges and opportunities that leaders face when adapting to crises within the UK private healthcare sector. The study's insights contribute to the growing body of literature on leadership in healthcare, offering practical implications for leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders within the UK private healthcare sector. By employing the dual perspectives of complexity theory and institutional theory, this research provides a holistic understanding of leadership adaptability in the face of crises, offering valuable guidance for enhancing the resilience and effectiveness of healthcare leadership within this vital sector.

Keywords: leadership, adaptability, decision-making, complexity, complexity theory, institutional theory, organizational complexity, complex adaptive system (CAS), crises, healthcare

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Authors: H. Aissa, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

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The effects of down slope steepness on soil splash distribution under a water drop impact have been investigated in this study. The equipment used are the burette to simulate a water drop, a splash cup filled with sandy soil which forms the source area and a splash board to collect the ejected particles. The results found in this study have shown that the apparent mass increased with increasing downslope angle following a linear regression equation with high coefficient of determination. In the same way, the radial soil splash distribution over the distance has been analyzed statistically, and an exponential function was the best fit of the relationship for the different slope angles. The curves and the regressions equations validate the well known FSDF and extend the theory of Van Dijk.

Keywords: splash distribution, water drop, slope steepness, soil detachment

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Authors: Eliane Abdo, Olivier Colot

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SMEs are always considered as a national priority due to their contribution to job creation, innovation and growth. Once the start-up phase is crossed with encouraging results, the company enters the phase of growth. In order to improve its competitiveness, maintain and increase its market share, the company is in the necessity even the obligation to develop its tangible and intangible investments. SMEs are generally closed companies with special and critical financial situation, limited resources and difficulty to access the capital markets; their shareholders are always living in a conflict between their independence and their need to increase capital that leads to the entry of new shareholder. The capital structure was always considered the core of research in corporate finance; moreover, the financial crisis and its repercussions on the credit’s availability, especially for SMEs make SME financing a hot topic. On the other hand, financial theories do not provide answers to capital structure’s questions; they offer tools and mode of financing that are more accessible to larger companies. Yet, SME’s capital structure can’t be independent of their governance structure. The classic financial theory supposes independence between the investment decision and the financing decision. Thus, investment determines the volume of funding, but not the split between internal or external funds. In this context, we find interesting to study the hypothesis that SMEs respond positively to the financial theories applied to large firms and to check if they are constrained by conventional solutions used by large companies. In this context, this research focuses on the analysis of the resource’s structure of SME in parallel with their investments’ structure, in order to highlight a link between their assets and liabilities structure. We founded our conceptual model based on two main theoretical frameworks: the Pecking order theory, and the Trade Off theory taking into consideration the SME’s characteristics. Our data were generated from DIANE database. Five hypotheses were tested via a panel regression to understand the type of dependence between the financing methods of 3,244 French SMEs and the development of their investment over a period of 10 years (2007-2016). The results show dependence between equity and internal financing in case of intangible investments development. Moreover, this type of business is constraint to financial debts since the guarantees provided are not sufficient to meet the banks' requirements. However, for tangible investments development, SMEs count sequentially on internal financing, bank borrowing, and new shares issuance or hybrid financing. This is compliant to the Pecking Order Theory. We, therefore, conclude that unlisted SMEs incur more financial debts to finance their tangible investments more than their intangible. However, they always prefer internal financing as a first choice. This seems to be confirmed by the assumption that the profitability of the company is negatively related to the increase of the financial debt. Thus, the Pecking Order Theory predictions seem to be the most plausible. Consequently, SMEs primarily rely on self-financing and then go, into debt as a priority to finance their financial deficit.

Keywords: capital structure, investments, life cycle, pecking order theory, trade off theory

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Authors: Mina Darabi Amin

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In 1972, Hans Robert Jauss introduced the Reception Theory a version of Reader-response criticism, that suggests the literary critics to re-examine the relationship between the author, the work and the reader. The revealing of these relationships has shown that, besides the creation, the reception and the reading of the text have different levels which exempt it from a continuous reference to the meaning intended by the artist and could lead to multiplicity of possible interpretations according to the ‘Horizon of Expectations’. This theory could be associated with another intellectual process called ‘translation’, a process that is always confronted by different levels of readers in the target language and different levels of reception by these readers. By adopting the perspective of Reception theory in translation, we could ignore a particular kind of translation and consider the initiation to a literary text, its translation and its reception as a continuous process. Just like the creation of the text, the translation and its reception, are not made once and for all; they are confronted with different levels of reception and interpretation which are made and remade endlessly. After having known and crossing the first levels, the Horizons of Expectation could be extended and the reader could be initiated to the higher levels. On the other hand, we could say that the faithful and free translation are not opposed to each other, but depending on the type of reception by the readers and in a particular moment, the existence of both is necessary. In fact, it is the level of reception in readers and their Horizon of Expectations that determine the degree of fidelity and freedom of translation.

Keywords: reception theory, reading, literary translation, horizons of expectation, reader

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Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

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We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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Authors: Shohnaza Uzokova Beknazarovna

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This research study provides a comprehensive exploration of the Theory of Media Activity and its relevance as a conceptual framework for journalism education. The author offers a thorough review of existing literature on media activity theory, emphasizing its potential to enhance the understanding of the evolving media landscape and its implications for journalism practice. Through a combination of theoretical analysis and practical examples, the paper elucidates the ways in which the Theory of Media Activity can inform and enrich journalism education, particularly in relation to the interactive and participatory nature of contemporary media. The author presents a compelling argument for the integration of media activity theory into journalism curricula, emphasizing its capacity to equip students with a nuanced understanding of the reciprocal relationship between media producers and consumers. Furthermore, the paper discusses the implications of technological advancements on media production and consumption, highlighting the need for journalism educators to prepare students to navigate and contribute to the future of journalism in a rapidly changing media environment. Overall, this research paper offers valuable insights into the potential benefits of embracing the Theory of Media Activity as a foundational framework for journalism education. Its thorough analysis and practical implications make it a valuable resource for educators, researchers, and practitioners seeking to enhance journalism pedagogy in response to the dynamic nature of contemporary media.

Keywords: theory of media activity, journalism education, media landscape, media production, media consumption, interactive media, participatory media, technological advancements, media producers, media consumers, journalism practice, contemporary media environment, journalism pedagogy, media theory, media studies

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Authors: Lele Zhang, Hui Leng Choo, Alexander Konyukhov, Shuguang Li

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Finite Element (FE) model of simplified e-bike structure was generated by main frame with two tiers, which consisted of pipe, mass, beam, and shell elements (pipe 289, beam188, shell 181, shell 281, combin14, link11, mass21). These elements would be introduced and demonstrated using mathematical formulas. Based on coupling theory, constrain equations was proposed. Exporting all the parameters obtained from theory part, the connection stiffness matrix of the whole e-bike structure between each of these elements was detected.

Keywords: coupling theory, stiffness matrix, e-bike, finite element model

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Authors: Mukta Avachat-Shirke

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The process of manifestation in art has been studied deeply by various Indian and Western philosophers through times. In the art of painting, ‘Practice’ is always considered as techniques or making and ‘Theory’ is related to intelligence or the ‘conceptual.' The question about the significance of ‘Practice’ in artistic research has been a topic of debate. The aim of this qualitative study is to find the relevance of practice and theory while creating artworks. This study analyzes the thoughts and philosophy of Abhinavgupta, Hegel, and Croce to find a new perspective for looking at practice and theory within artistic research. With the method of grounded theory, the study attempts to establish the importance of both in artistic research. It discusses the issues like stages of creating art, role of tacit knowledge and importance of the decision-making the ability of the artist. This comparative analysis of these three philosophers along with the present systems can be used as a point of reference for further developments in the pedagogy of art research and artists, to understand the psychology and to follow the process of creativity effectively.

Keywords: artistic research, Indian philosophy, practice, Western Philosophy

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Authors: Badar Khalid Hakim Alshabibi

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This study aims to examine the determinants of corporate board diligence in the listed firm in Sultanate of Oman, using four corporate board characteristics, the board size, board independence, board gender diversity, and nationality diversity. Design/methodology/approach: Using a sample comprised of all companies listed in the Muscat Securities Exchange over a ten-year period (2009–2019), the study applies Pooled OLS regression to examine the determinants of corporate board diligence. Findings: Drawing from the agency theory and institutional theory, the results reveal that the number of independent board members had statistical significance, suggesting that board independence can improve corporate board diligence, though board size and nationality diversity were found to have a negative association with corporate board diligence. There is no evidence, however, that board gender diversity improves corporate board diligence. Practical implications: The study provides insights for both the investors and regulatory authorities in developing economies. For the investors to be aware about the corporate board characteristics which enhance board monitoring, and for the regulatory authorities to consider revising the corporate governance codes which enhance the quality of governance practices. Originality/value: The study provides new evidence documenting the determinants of corporate board diligence in a developing country such as the Sultanate of Oman, which has a high potential for growth and attracting foreign investment, as stated in Oman vision 2040. In addition, this paper is the first to examine the association between corporate board diligence and corporate board diversity aspects.

Keywords: board diligence, board monitoring, board composition, board diversity, oman

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Authors: Ghada Soltane

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The objective of this study was to identify factors impacting supply chain collaboration. a quantitative study was carried out on a sample of 84 Tunisian industrial companies. To verify the research hypotheses and test the direct effect of these factors on supply chain collaboration a multiple regression method was used using SPSS 26 software. The results show that there are four factors direct effects that affect supply chain collaboration in a meaningful and positive way, including: trust, engagement, information sharing and information quality

Keywords: supply chain collaboration, factors of collaboration, principal component analysis, multiple regression

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Authors: R. B. Knudsen, O. T. Rasmussen, R. A. Alphinas

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The reason for conducting this research is to develop an algorithm that is capable of classifying news articles from the automobile industry, according to the competitive actions that they entail, with the use of Text Mining (TM) methods. It is needed to test how to properly preprocess the data for this research by preparing pipelines which fits each algorithm the best. The pipelines are tested along with nine different classification algorithms in the realm of regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Preliminary testing for identifying the optimal pipelines and algorithms resulted in the selection of two algorithms with two different pipelines. The two algorithms are Logistic Regression (LR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These algorithms are optimized further, where several parameters of each algorithm are tested. The best result is achieved with the ANN. The final model yields an accuracy of 0.79, a precision of 0.80, a recall of 0.78, and an F1 score of 0.76. By removing three of the classes that created noise, the final algorithm is capable of reaching an accuracy of 94%.

Keywords: Artificial Neural network, Competitive dynamics, Logistic Regression, Text classification, Text mining

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Authors: Paduri Veerabhadram, Antoinette Lombard

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In this paper a framework for hypothesizing about mobile learning to complement theories of formal and informal learning is presented. As such, activity theory will form the main theoretical lens through which the elements involved in formal and informal learning for mobile learning will be explored, specifically related to context-aware mobile learning application. The author believes that the complexity of the relationships involved can best be analysed using activity theory. Activity theory, as a social, cultural and activity theory can be used as a mobile learning framework in an academic environment, but to develop an optimal artifact, through investigation of inherent system's contradictions. As such, it serves as a powerful modelling tool to explore and understand the design of a mobile learning environment in the study’s environment. The Academic Tool Kit Framework (ATKF) as also employed for designing of a constructivism learning environment, effective in assisting universities to facilitate lecturers to effectively implement learning through utilizing mobile devices. Results indicate a positive perspective of students in the use of mobile devices for formal and informal learning, based on the context-aware learning environment developed through the use of activity theory and ATKF.

Keywords: collaborative learning, cooperative learning, context-aware learning environment, mobile learning, pedagogy

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Authors: Amin Behradfar

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‎Tourism has a direct impact on the national revenue for all touristic countries. It creates work opportunities‎, ‎industries‎, ‎and several investments to serve and raise nations performance and cultures. ‎This paper is devoted to analyze dynamical behaviour of a four-dimensional non-linear tourism-based social-ecological system by using the codimension two bifurcation theory‎. ‎In fact we investigate the cusp bifurcation of that‎. ‎Implications of our mathematical results to the tourism‎ ‎industry are discussed‎. Moreover, profitability‎, ‎compatibility and sustainability of the tourism system are shown by the aid of cusp bifurcation and numerical techniques‎.

Keywords: tourism-based social-ecological dynamical systems, cusp bifurcation, center manifold theory, profitability, ‎compatibility, sustainability

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Authors: Sabrina Boutaleb, Fouad Bourad, Kouider Halim Benrahou, Abdelouahed Tounsi

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In the present work, the dynamic analysis of the functionally graded rectangular nanoplates is studied. The theory of nonlocal elasticity based on the quasi 3D high shear deformation theory (quasi 3D HSDT) has been employed to determine the natural frequencies of the nanosized FG plate. In HSDT, a cubic function is employed in terms of thickness coordinates to introduce the influence of transverse shear deformation and stretching thickness. The theory of nonlocal elasticity is utilized to examine the impact of the small scale on the natural frequency of the FG rectangular nanoplate. The equations of motion are deduced by implementing Hamilton’s principle. To demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method, the calculated results in specific cases are compared and examined with available results in the literature, and a good agreement is observed. Finally, the influence of the various parameters, such as the nonlocal coefficient, the material indexes, the aspect ratio, and the thickness-to-length ratio, on the dynamic properties of the FG nanoplates is illustrated and discussed in detail.

Keywords: nonlocal elasticity theory, FG nanoplate, free vibration, refined theory, elastic foundation

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Authors: Qiuling Xie, Shanliang Zhu, Zongdi Sun

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In this paper, we analyzed the correlation relationship among PM2.5 from other five Air Quality Indices (AQIs) based on the grey relational degree, and built a multivariate nonlinear regression equation model of PM2.5 and the five monitoring indexes. For the optimal control problem of PM2.5, we took the partial large Cauchy distribution of membership equation as satisfaction function. We established a nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximum performance to price ratio. And the optimal control scheme is given.

Keywords: grey relational degree, multiple linear regression, membership function, nonlinear programming

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Authors: Jing-Gang Xie

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The research, in this case, considers the integration of the Quantum Field Theory and the General Relativity Theory. As two successful models in explaining behaviors of particles, they are incompatible since they work at different masses and scales of energy, with the evidence that regards the description of black holes and universe formation. It is so considering previous efforts in merging the two theories, including the likes of the String Theory, Quantum Gravity models, and others. In a bid to prove an actionable experiment, the paper’s approach starts with the derivations of the existing theories at present. It goes on to test the derivations by applying the same initial assumptions, coupled with several deviations. The resulting equations get similar results to those of classical Newton model, quantum mechanics, and general relativity as long as conditions are normal. However, outcomes are different when conditions are extreme, specifically with no breakdowns even for less than Schwarzschild radius, or at Planck length cases. Even so, it proves the possibilities of integrating the two theories.

Keywords: general relativity theory, particles, photons, Quantum Gravity Model, gravitational frequency shift

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Authors: Nagarjuna Remalli, Robert Brandt

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Down-sizing of combustion engines in automobiles are prevailed owing to required increase in efficiency. This leads to a stress increment on valve springs, which affects their intended function due to an increase in relaxation. High strength martensitic steels are used for valve spring applications. Recent investigations unveiled that low temperature creep (LTC) in martensitic steels obey a logarithmic creep law. The exhaustion theory links the logarithmic creep behavior to an activation energy which is characteristic for any given time during creep. This activation energy increases with creep strain due to barriers of low activation energies exhausted during creep. The assumption of the exhaustion theory is that the material is inhomogeneous in microscopic scale. According to these assumptions it is anticipated that small obstacles (e. g. ε–carbides) having a wide range of size distribution are non-uniformly distributed in the materials. X-ray diffraction studies revealed the presence of ε–carbides in high strength martensitic steels. In this study, high strength martensitic steels that are crept in the temperature range of 75 – 150 °C were investigated with the aid of a transmission electron microscope for the evidence of an inhomogeneous distribution of obstacles having different size to examine the validation of exhaustion theory.

Keywords: creep mechanisms, exhaustion theory, low temperature creep, martensitic steels

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines based regression approach to model the mass transfer capacity of multiple plunging jets, both vertical (θ = 90°) and inclined (θ = 60°). The data set used in this study consists of four input parameters with a total of eighty eight cases. For testing, tenfold cross validation was used. Correlation coefficient values of 0.971 and 0.981 (root mean square error values of 0.0025 and 0.0020) were achieved by using polynomial and radial basis kernel functions based support vector regression respectively. Results suggest an improved performance by radial basis function in comparison to polynomial kernel based support vector machines. The estimated overall mass transfer coefficient, by both the kernel functions, is in good agreement with actual experimental values (within a scatter of ±15 %); thereby suggesting the utility of support vector machines based regression approach.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, ecological sciences

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Authors: Abdelhafez Abdel Hafez

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Dependency theory was developed since 1950s, with economic concerns. It divided the world into two parts, the states of the peripheral (third world countries) and the states of the core (the developed capitalist countries). Another perspective developed to the theory with the implementation of the idea of semi-peripheral states in the new world order. With these divisions (core, peripheral, semi-peripheral) this study aims to develop a concept from the perspective of dependency theory, to understand the nature of the relationship of the U.S. with the Middle East Regions through its relation with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The tested countries (Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey) are seeking a foothold and influential role in the region. The paper argued that the U.S. directs its policies toward the region, in the way to guarantee no country of the region will be in semi-peripheral level (that could create competitions or danger on the U.S. interest). Therefore, U.S. policies in the region have varied from declaring war to diplomatic channels and sometimes ignoring. The paper is based on the dependency theory, and other international relations theories used to study the Middle East in the international context.

Keywords: dependency, hegemony, imperialism, middle east

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Authors: Bry X., Trottier C., Mortier F., Cornu G., Verron T.

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We address component-based regularization of a Multivariate Generalized Linear Model (MGLM). A set of random responses Y is assumed to depend, through a GLM, on a set X of explanatory variables, as well as on a set T of additional covariates. X is partitioned into R conceptually homogeneous blocks X1, ... , XR , viewed as explanatory themes. Variables in each Xr are assumed many and redundant. Thus, Generalised Linear Regression (GLR) demands regularization with respect to each Xr. By contrast, variables in T are assumed selected so as to demand no regularization. Regularization is performed searching each Xr for an appropriate number of orthogonal components that both contribute to model Y and capture relevant structural information in Xr. We propose a very general criterion to measure structural relevance (SR) of a component in a block, and show how to take SR into account within a Fisher-scoring-type algorithm in order to estimate the model. We show how to deal with mixed-type explanatory variables. The method, named THEME-SCGLR, is tested on simulated data.

Keywords: Component-Model, Fisher Scoring Algorithm, GLM, PLS Regression, SCGLR, SEER, THEME

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

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The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity

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Authors: Abdulrahman Sumayli, Saad M. AlShahrani

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For the hydrogenation process, knowing the solubility of hydrogen (H2) in hydrocarbons is critical to improve the efficiency of the process. We investigated the H2 solubility computation in four heavy crude oil feedstocks using machine learning techniques. Temperature, pressure, and feedstock type were considered as the inputs to the models, while the hydrogen solubility was the sole response. Specifically, we employed three different models: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and Bayesian ridge regression (BRR). To achieve the best performance, the hyper-parameters of these models are optimized using the whale optimization algorithm (WOA). We evaluated the models using a dataset of solubility measurements in various feedstocks, and we compared their performance based on several metrics. Our results show that the WOA-SVR model tuned with WOA achieves the best performance overall, with an RMSE of 1.38 × 10− 2 and an R-squared of 0.991. These findings suggest that machine learning techniques can provide accurate predictions of hydrogen solubility in different feedstocks, which could be useful in the development of hydrogen-related technologies. Besides, the solubility of hydrogen in the four heavy oil fractions is estimated in different ranges of temperatures and pressures of 150 ◦C–350 ◦C and 1.2 MPa–10.8 MPa, respectively

Keywords: temperature, pressure variations, machine learning, oil treatment

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Authors: Benjamin Bobbia, Matthias Picard

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In recent years active learning methodologies based on the representativity of the data seems more promising to limit overfitting. The presented query methodology for regression using the Wasserstein distance measuring the representativity of our labelled dataset compared to the global distribution. In this work a crucial use of GroupSort Neural Networks is made therewith to draw a double advantage. The Wasserstein distance can be exactly expressed in terms of such neural networks. Moreover, one can provide explicit bounds for their size and depth together with rates of convergence. However, heterogeneity of the dataset is also considered by weighting the Wasserstein distance with the error of approximation at the previous step of active learning. Such an approach leads to a reduction of overfitting and high prediction performance after few steps of query. After having detailed the methodology and algorithm, an empirical study is presented in order to investigate the range of our hyperparameters. The performances of this method are compared, in terms of numbers of query needed, with other classical and recent query methods on several UCI datasets.

Keywords: active learning, Lipschitz regularization, neural networks, optimal transport, regression

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Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

Abstract:

This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes; it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to affect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, long short-term memory network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Shima Soltanzadeh, Mohammad Hosain Fazel Zarandi, Mojtaba Barzegar Astanjin

Abstract:

Diagnosis of male infertility by the laboratory tests is expensive and, sometimes it is intolerable for patients. Filling out the questionnaire and then using classification method can be the first step in decision-making process, so only in the cases with a high probability of infertility we can use the laboratory tests. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of four classification methods including naive Bayesian, neural network, logistic regression and fuzzy c-means clustering as a classification, in the diagnosis of male infertility due to environmental factors. Since the data are unbalanced, the ROC curves are most suitable method for the comparison. In this paper, we also have selected the more important features using a filtering method and examined the impact of this feature reduction on the performance of each methods; generally, most of the methods had better performance after applying the filter. We have showed that using fuzzy c-means clustering as a classification has a good performance according to the ROC curves and its performance is comparable to other classification methods like logistic regression.

Keywords: classification, fuzzy c-means, logistic regression, Naive Bayesian, neural network, ROC curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 316