Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

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Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type

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Authors: Nilesh Pancholi, Mangal Bhatt

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This paper highlights comparative results of traditional FMECA and multi-factor decision-making approach based on “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)” for aluminum wire rolling mill plant. The suggested study is carried out to overcome the limitations of FMECA by assigning the scores against each failure modes in crisp values to evaluate the criticalities of the failure modes without uncertainty. The primary findings of the paper are that sudden impact on the rolls seems to be most critical failure cause and high contact stresses due to rolling & sliding action of mesh to be least critical failure cause. It is suggested to modify the current control practices with proper maintenance strategy based on achieved maintainability criticality index (MCI). The outcome of the study will be helpful in deriving optimized maintenance plan to maximize the performance of continuous process industry.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance, FMECA, TOPSIS, process industry

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: Kamal Bahrin Jaafar

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The study area is located at Bukit Kukus, Penang where the construction of twin road project in ongoing. A landslide event has occurred on 19th October 2018, which causes fatal deaths. The purpose of this study is to figure out the causes of failure, the estimated volume of failure, and its balance. The study comprises of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sensing and resistivity survey. The resistivity method includes spreading three lines of 200m length resistivity survey with the depth of penetration in the subsurface not exceeding 35m. The result of UAV shows the current view of the site condition. Based on resistivity result, the dominant layer in the study area consists of residual soil/filling material with a thickness of more than 35m. Three selected cross sections from construction drawing are overlain with the current cross sections to understand more on the condition of the subsurface profile. By comparison, there is a difference between past and present topography. The combination of result from the previous data and current condition shows the calculated volume of failure is 85,000 m³, and its balance is 50,000 m³. In conclusion, the failure occurs since the contractor has conducted the construction works without following the construction drawing supplied by the consultant. Besides, the cause of failure is triggered by the geology condition, such as a fault that should be considered prior to the commencement of work.

Keywords: UAV, landslide, resistivity survey, cause of failure

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Authors: Fujia Yang

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Alongside technological innovation, the current “double reduction” policy and English Curriculum Standards for Compulsory Education in China both emphasise and encourage appropriately integrating educational technologies into the classroom. Therefore, schools are increasingly using digital means to engage students in English reading, but the impact of such technologies on Chinese pupils’ reading achievement remains unclear. To serve as a reference for reforming English reading education in primary schools under the double reduction policy, this study investigates the effects and primary influencing factors of a specific reading programme, Accelerated Reader (AR), on Chinese primary school students’ reading achievement. A quantitative online survey was used to collect 37 valid questionnaires from teachers, and the results demonstrate that, from teachers’ perspectives, the AR program seemed to positively affect students’ reading achievement by recommending material at the appropriate reading levels and developing students’ reading habits. Although the reading enjoyment derived from the AR program does not directly influence students’ reading achievement, these factors are strongly correlated. This can be explained by the self-paced, independent learning AR format, its high accuracy in predicting reading level, the quiz format and external motivation, and the importance of examinations and resource limitations in China. The results of this study may support reforming English reading education in Chinese primary schools.

Keywords: educational technology, reading programme, primary students, accelerated reader, reading effects

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Authors: Ghiwa Dandach

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By challenging the anti-failure bias and contributing to the theoretical territory of the attribution theory, this thesis develops a comprehensive process for entrepreneurial learning from failure. The practical implication of the findings suggests assisting entrepreneurs (current, failing, and nascent) in effectively anticipating and reflecting upon failure. Additionally, the process is suggested to enhance the level of institutional and private (accelerators and financers) support provided to entrepreneurs, the implications of which may improve future opportunities for entrepreneurial success. Henceforth, exploring learning from failure is argued to impact the potential survival of future ventures, subsequently revitalizing the economic contribution of entrepreneurship. This learning process can be enhanced with the cognitive development of causal ascriptions for failure, which eventually impacts learning outcomes. However, the mechanism with which entrepreneurs make sense of failure, reflect on the journey, and transform experience into knowledge is still under-researched. More specifically, the cognitive process of failure attribution is under-explored, majorly in the context of developing economies, calling for a more insightful understanding on how entrepreneurs ascribe failure. Responding to the call for more thorough research in such cultural contexts, this study expands the understanding of the dimensions of failure attributions as perceived by entrepreneurs and the impact of these dimensions on learning outcomes in the Lebanese context. The research adopted the exploratory interpretivism paradigm and collected data from interviews with industry experts first, followed by narratives of entrepreneurs using the qualitative multimethod approach. The holistic and categorical content analysis of narratives, preceded by the thematic analysis of interviews, unveiled how entrepreneurs ascribe failure by developing minor and major dimensions of each failure attribution. The findings have also revealed how each dimension impacts the learning from failure when accompanied by emotional resilience. The thesis concludes that exploring in-depth the dimensions of failure attributions significantly determines the level of learning generated. They are moving beyond the simple categorisation of ascriptions as primary internal or external unveiled how learning may occur with each attribution at the individual, venture, and ecosystem levels. This has further accentuated that a major internal attribution of failure combined with a minor external attribution generated the highest levels of transformative and double-loop learning, emphasizing the role of personal blame and responsibility on enhancing learning outcomes.

Keywords: attribution, entrepreneurship, reflection, sense-making, emotions, learning outcomes, failure, exit

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Authors: Prakash Singh

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Schools throughout the world are facing increasing challenges in dealing with school violence and drug abuse by pupils. Therefore, the question of the fear of failure to meet the aims and objectives of education inevitably surfaces as it places increasing and challenging demands on educators and all other stakeholders to address this malaise. Multiple studies on the construct tobephobia (TBP) simply define TBP as the fear of failure in education. This study is a continuation of the exploratory studies on the manifestation of fear in education. The primary purpose of this study was to establish how TBP, caused by school violence and drug abuse affects teaching and learning in our schools. The qualitative research method was used for this study. Teachers admitted that they fear for their safety at school. Working in a fearful situation places a high rate of stress and anxiety on them. Tobephobic educators spend most of their time worrying about their fear of violence and drug abuse by pupils and are too frightened to carry out their normal duties. They prefer to stay in familiar surroundings for fear of being attacked by inebriated learners. This study, therefore, contributes to our understanding of the effects of TBP in our schools caused by school violence and drug abuse. Also, this study supplements the evidence accumulated over the past fifteen years that TBP is not a figment of someone’s imagination; it is a gruesome reality affecting the very foundation of our educational system globally to provide quality and equal education to all our learners in a harmonious, collegial school environment.

Keywords: tobephobia, tobephobic educators, fear of failure in education, school violence, drug abuse

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Authors: Nitish Kumar Vaja, Oumar Barry, Brian DeJong

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Aeolian vibrations are the major cause for the failure of conductor cables. Using a Stockbridge damper reduces these vibrations and increases the life span of the conductor cable. Designing an efficient Stockbridge damper that suits the conductor cable requires a robust mathematical model with minimum assumptions. However it is not easy to analytically model the complex geometry of the messenger. Therefore an equivalent stiffness must be determined so that it can be used in the analytical model. This paper examines the bending stiffness of the cable and discusses the effect of this stiffness on the natural frequencies. The obtained equivalent stiffness compensates for the assumption of modeling the messenger as a rod. The results from the free vibration analysis of the analytical model with the equivalent stiffness is validated using the full scale finite element model of the Stockbridge damper.

Keywords: equivalent stiffness, finite element model, free vibration response, Stockbridge damper

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Authors: Rajai Al-Rousan

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This paper presents a proposed analytical model for predicting the shear strength of reinforced concrete beams strengthened with CFRP composites as external reinforcement. The proposed analytical model can predict the shear contribution of CFRP composites of RC beams with an acceptable coefficient of correlation with the tested results. Based on the comparison of the proposed model with the published well-known models (ACI model, Triantafillou model, and Colotti model), the ACI model had a wider range of 0.16 to 10.08 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears at failure. Also, an acceptable range of 0.27 to 2.78 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears by the Triantafillou model. Finally, the best prediction (the ratio between the tested and predicted ones) of the ultimate shear capacity is observed by using Colotti model with a range of 0.20 to 1.78. Thus, the contribution of the CFRP composites as external reinforcement can be predicted with high accuracy by using the proposed analytical model.

Keywords: predicting, shear capacity, reinforced concrete, beams, strengthened, externally, CFRP composites

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Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

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Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi

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The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.

Keywords: thermo-mechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damage

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Authors: Jie Liu, Jinqu Cheng, Qiyuan Peng, Yong Yin

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Urban rail transit (URT) plays a significant role in dealing with traffic congestion and environmental problems in cities. However, equipment failure and obstruction of links often lead to URT links’ capacities loss in daily operation. It affects the reliability and transport service quality of URT network seriously. In order to measure the influence of links’ capacities loss on reliability and transport service quality of URT network, passengers are divided into three categories in case of links’ capacities loss. Passengers in category 1 are less affected by the loss of links’ capacities. Their travel is reliable since their travel quality is not significantly reduced. Passengers in category 2 are affected by the loss of links’ capacities heavily. Their travel is not reliable since their travel quality is reduced seriously. However, passengers in category 2 still can travel on URT. Passengers in category 3 can not travel on URT because their travel paths’ passenger flow exceeds capacities. Their travel is not reliable. Thus, the proportion of passengers in category 1 whose travel is reliable is defined as reliability indicator of URT network. The transport service quality of URT network is related to passengers’ travel time, passengers’ transfer times and whether seats are available to passengers. The generalized travel cost is a comprehensive reflection of travel time, transfer times and travel comfort. Therefore, passengers’ average generalized travel cost is used as transport service quality indicator of URT network. The impact of links’ capacities loss on transport service quality of URT network is measured with passengers’ relative average generalized travel cost with and without links’ capacities loss. The proportion of the passengers affected by links and betweenness of links are used to determine the important links in URT network. The stochastic user equilibrium distribution model based on the improved logit model is used to determine passengers’ categories and calculate passengers’ generalized travel cost in case of links’ capacities loss, which is solved with method of successive weighted averages algorithm. The reliability and transport service quality indicators of URT network are calculated with the solution result. Taking Wuhan Metro as a case, the reliability and transport service quality of Wuhan metro network is measured with indicators and method proposed in this paper. The result shows that using the proportion of the passengers affected by links can identify important links effectively which have great influence on reliability and transport service quality of URT network; The important links are mostly connected to transfer stations and the passenger flow of important links is high; With the increase of number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss, the reliability of the network keeps decreasing, the proportion of passengers in category 3 keeps increasing and the proportion of passengers in category 2 increases at first and then decreases; When the number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss increased to a certain level, the decline of transport service quality is weakened.

Keywords: urban rail transit network, reliability, transport service quality, links’ capacities loss, important links

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Authors: N. Nalini, Lokesh B. Bhajantri

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In Distributed Sensor Networks, the sensor nodes are prone to failure due to energy depletion and some other reasons. In this regard, fault tolerance of network is essential in distributed sensor environment. Energy efficiency, network or topology control and fault-tolerance are the most important issues in the development of next-generation Distributed Sensor Networks (DSNs). This paper proposes a node fault detection and recovery using Genetic Algorithm (GA) in DSN when some of the sensor nodes are faulty. The main objective of this work is to provide fault tolerance mechanism which is energy efficient and responsive to network using GA, which is used to detect the faulty nodes in the network based on the energy depletion of node and link failure between nodes. The proposed fault detection model is used to detect faults at node level and network level faults (link failure and packet error). Finally, the performance parameters for the proposed scheme are evaluated.

Keywords: distributed sensor networks, genetic algorithm, fault detection and recovery, information technology

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Authors: Vatsal Patel, Niraj Shah

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The aim of the research reported in this paper is to assess the Strength and durability performance of High Performance Concrete containing different percentages of waste marble powder produced from marble industry. Concrete mixes possessing a target mean compressive strength of 70MPa were prepared with 0%,5%,10%,15% and 20% cement replacement by waste marble powder with W/B =0.33. More specifically, the compressive strength, flexural strength, chloride penetration, sorptivity and accelerated corrosion were determined. Concrete containing 10% waste marble powder proved to have best Mechanical and durability properties than other mixtures made with binary blends. However, poorer performance was noticeable when replacement percentage was higher. The replacement of Waste Marble Powder will have major environmental benefits.

Keywords: durability, high performance concrete, marble waste powder, sorptivity, accelerated corrosion

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Authors: Silvia Rahmita

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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.

Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure

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Authors: Moses Aron, Elias Mwakilama, Jimmy Namangale

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Spending more time on long queues for a basic service remains a common challenge to most developing countries, including Malawi. For health sector in particular, Out-Patient Department (OPD) experiences long queues. This puts the lives of patients at risk. However, using queuing analysis to under the nature of the problems and efficiency of service systems, such problems can be abated. Based on a kind of service, literature proposes different possible queuing models. However, unlike using generalized assumed models proposed by literature, use of real time case study data can help in deeper understanding the particular problem model and how such a model can vary from one day to the other and also from each case to another. As such, this study uses data obtained from one urban HC for BP, Pediatric and General OPD cases to investigate an average queuing time for patients within the system. It seeks to highlight the proper queuing model by investigating the kind of distributions functions over patient’s arrival time, inter-arrival time, waiting time and service time. Comparable with the standard set values by WHO, the study found that patients at this HC spend more waiting times than service times. On model investigation, different days presented different models ranging from an assumed M/M/1, M/M/2 to M/Er/2. As such, through sensitivity analysis, in general, a commonly assumed M/M/1 model failed to fit the data but rather an M/Er/2 demonstrated to fit well. An M/Er/3 model seemed to be good in terms of measuring resource utilization, proposing a need to increase medical personnel at this HC. However, an M/Er/4 showed to cause more idleness of human resources.

Keywords: health care, out-patient department, queuing model, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Rojith K. Balakrishnan

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Spontaneous tumour lysis syndrome is a constellation of electrolyte abnormalities and an acute renal failure which occurs in the setting of rapid cell turnover prior to the administration of cytotoxic chemotherapy. While spontaneous tumour lysis well-described in patients with Burkitt lymphoma, it is thought to occur less commonly in patients with other hematological malignancies. We present a case of forty-year-old female who presented with features of acute renal failure, on further evaluation turned out to be a newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia with spontaneous tumour lysis best of our knowledge only three cases of AML with spontaneous tumour lysis has reported world wide.

Keywords: AML, tumour lysis, renal failure, myeloid leukemia

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Authors: Ali Musbah Mohamed Elwahishi

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Democracy is demand for the majority of people in the whole world, Specifically in the regions that are still outside the democratic life such as Libya and other Arab countries. Although democracy has spread across the world through three waves of democratization, Libya is still outside the democratic process, even recently its regime has changed. The challenges of democracy in Libya are not new, they represent accumulations over time that impeded to achieve this goal. This paper concludes that the absence of democracy in Libya because of set of factors that include: colonial legacy, oil wealth, the lack of institutions, the lack of political parties, tribal factor and recently the spread of the armed groups. These factors prevented Libya to be democratic state whether during King Idris’, Qaddafi’s or even after Qaddafi rule.

Keywords: the failure of democracy, political transition, the lack of institutions, Libya, Arab countries

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Authors: A. Bendarma, T. Jankowiak, A. Rusinek, T. Lodygowski, M. Klósak, S. Bouslikhane

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The analysis of the mechanical characteristics and dynamic behavior of aluminum alloy sheet due to perforation tests based on the experimental tests coupled with the numerical simulation is presented. The impact problems (penetration and perforation) of the metallic plates have been of interest for a long time. Experimental, analytical as well as numerical studies have been carried out to analyze in details the perforation process. Based on these approaches, the ballistic properties of the material have been studied. The initial and residual velocities laser sensor is used during experiments to obtain the ballistic curve and the ballistic limit. The energy balance is also reported together with the energy absorbed by the aluminum including the ballistic curve and ballistic limit. The high speed camera helps to estimate the failure time and to calculate the impact force. A wide range of initial impact velocities from 40 up to 180 m/s has been covered during the tests. The mass of the conical nose shaped projectile is 28 g, its diameter is 12 mm, and the thickness of the aluminum sheet is equal to 1.0 mm. The ABAQUS/Explicit finite element code has been used to simulate the perforation processes. The comparison of the ballistic curve was obtained numerically and was verified experimentally, and the failure patterns are presented using the optimal mesh densities which provide the stability of the results. A good agreement of the numerical and experimental results is observed.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, ballistic behavior, failure criterion, numerical simulation

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Anurag Savarnya

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The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.

Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel

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Authors: I. Apostol, M. Mosoarca

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Romania is a seismic country, with two major seismic zones, Vrancea and Banat. One of the most important cities from Banat seismic area is Timisoara, where a lot of valuable historical buildings were built before any design codes, but still they kept their stability during past earthquakes. This article presents the influence of the adjacent buildings during an earthquake and the way that the specific failure mechanism is changed when the building is part of an aggregate. The investigation was made using nonlinear analysis based on Tremuri software, first analyzing the buildings as isolated and second, considering the entire aggregate of buildings. There were noticed significant differences through the two situations regarding the specific failure mechanism activated for each building, showing the fact that in some situations, the presence of the adjacent buildings has positive or negative contribution for the seismic behavior of the analyzed one. The difference between the failure mechanism of the same buildings considered isolated and in aggregate aims to provide explications for the good structural state of the existing historical areas of Timisoara, as part of a larger multidisciplinary study, which will help local authorities to prioritize the consolidation works for the historical buildings in order to assure that the history of the city will be kept alive for the next generations.

Keywords: failure mechanism, analysis, aggregate, masonry, earthquake

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Authors: Kanayo Kenneth Asogwa

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The influence of the flow of nanoparticles in nanofluids across a vertical surface is significant, and its application in medical sciences, engineering, pharmaceutical, and food industries is enormous & widely published. However, the comparative examination of alumina nanoparticles with cupric nanoparticles past a rapid progressive Riga plate remains unknown. Thus, this report investigates water-based alumina and cupric nanoparticles passing through an exponentially accelerated Riga plate. Nanofluids containing copper (II) oxide (CuO) and aluminum oxide (Al2O3) nanoparticles are considered. The Laplace transform technique is used to solve the partial differential equations guiding the flow. The effect of various factors on skin friction coefficient, Nusselt number, velocity and temperature profiles is investigated and reported in tabular and graphical form. The upsurge of Modified Hartmann number and radiative impact improves copper (II) oxide nanofluid compared to aluminum oxide nanofluid due to Lorentz force and since CuO is a better heat conductor. At the same time, heat absorption and reactive species favor a slight decline in Alumina nanofluid than Cupric nanofluid in the thermal and velocity fields. The higher density of Cupric nanofluid is enhanced by increasing nanoparticle volume fraction over Alumina nanofluid with a decline in velocity distribution.

Keywords: alumina, cupric, nanoparticles, water-based

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Authors: Payel Datta, Abhishek Das, Abhishek Roychoudhury, Dhiman Chattopadhyay, Tanushyam Chattopadhyay

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Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) is most predominantly used in image/video processing, natural language processing (NLP), audio and speech recognition but not that much used in system performance evaluation. In this paper, authors are going to describe the architecture of an abstraction layer constructed using ML/DL to detect the system failure. This proposed system is used to detect the system failure by evaluating the performance metrics of an IoT service deployment under constrained infrastructure environment. This system has been tested on the manually annotated data set containing different metrics of the system, like number of threads, throughput, average response time, CPU usage, memory usage, network input/output captured in different hardware environments like edge (atom based gateway) and cloud (AWS EC2). The main challenge of developing such system is that the accuracy of classification should be 100% as the error in the system has an impact on the degradation of the service performance and thus consequently affect the reliability and high availability which is mandatory for an IoT system. Proposed ML/DL classifiers work with 100% accuracy for the data set of nearly 4,000 samples captured within the organization.

Keywords: machine learning, system performance, performance metrics, IoT, edge

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Authors: Liang Liu, Xiaopeng Luo

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In this paper, we propose an accelerated stochastic gradient method with momentum. The momentum term is the weighted average of generated gradients, and the weights decay inverse proportionally with the iteration times. Stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDM) uses weights that decay exponentially with the iteration times to generate the momentum term. Using exponential decay weights, variants of SGDM with inexplicable and complicated formats have been proposed to achieve better performance. However, the momentum update rules of our method are as simple as that of SGDM. We provide theoretical convergence analyses, which show both the exponential decay weights and our inverse proportional decay weights can limit the variance of the parameter moving directly to a region. Experimental results show that our method works well with many practical problems and outperforms SGDM.

Keywords: exponential decay rate weight, gradient descent, inverse proportional decay rate weight, momentum

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Authors: Muhammad Farooq, Ahtasham Gul

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To meet the desired standard, it is important to monitor and analyze different engineering processes to get desired output. The bivariate distributions got a lot of attention in recent years to describe the randomness of natural as well as artificial mechanisms. In this article, a bivariate model is constructed using two independent models developed by the nesting approach to study the effect of each component on reliability for better understanding. Further, the Bayes analysis of system availability is studied by considering prior parametric variations in the failure time and repair time distributions. Basic statistical characteristics of marginal distribution, like mean median and quantile function, are discussed. We use inverse Gamma prior to study its frequentist properties by conducting Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling scheme.

Keywords: reliability, system availability Weibull, inverse Lomax, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, Bayesian

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Authors: Ali Abd El-Aty, Ahmed Tauseef, Ahmad Farooq

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This research aims at analyzing and optimizing the hydroforming process parameters to achieve a sound bulged tube without failure. Theoretical constitutive model is formulated to develop a working diagram including process window, which represents the optimize region to carry out the hydroforming process and predict the type of tube failure during the process accurately. The model is applied into different bulging ratios for low carbon steel (C1010). From this study, it is concluded that the tubes with bulging ratios up to 50% and 70% are successfully formed without defects. The tubes with bulging ratio of 90% are successfully formed by hydroforming with optimized the loading path (axial feed versus internal pressure) within the process window. The working diagram is modified due to different types of formation of wrinkling during the hydroforming process. The formation of wrinkles with increasing axial feed can be useful in terms of the achievement of higher bulging ratio and/or less thinning and this type of wrinkles can be overcome through the internal pressure in the later stage of the hydroforming process. On the other hand, the formation of wrinkles may be harmful, if it cannot be reversed.

Keywords: finite element, hydroforming, process window, wrinkling

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Carolyn Ahmer, Ilona Heldal, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Older people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to safe places. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. This research deals with the fire safety of mentioned people's buildings by means of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, fire safety is addressed by modeling the egress of our target group from a hazardous zone to a safe zone. A common type of detached house with a prevalent plan has been chosen for safety analysis, and a limit state function has been developed according to the time-line evacuation model, which is based on a two-zone and smoke development model. An analytical computer model (B-Risk) is used to consider smoke development. Since most of the involved parameters in the fire development model pose uncertainty, an appropriate probability distribution function has been considered for each one of the variables with indeterministic nature. To achieve safety and reliability for the at-risk groups, the fire safety index method has been chosen to define the probability of failure (causalities) and safety index (beta index). An improved harmony search meta-heuristic optimization algorithm has been used to define the beta index. Sensitivity analysis has been done to define the most important and effective parameters for the fire safety of the at-risk group. Results showed an area of openings and intervals to egress exits are more important in buildings, and the safety of people would improve with increasing dimensions of occupant space (building). Fire growth is more critical compared to other parameters in the home without a detector and fire distinguishing system, but in a home equipped with these facilities, it is less important. Type of disabilities has a great effect on the safety level of people who live in the same home layout, and people with visual impairment encounter more risk of capturing compared to visual and movement disabilities.

Keywords: fire safety, at-risk groups, zone model, egress time, uncertainty

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Authors: Felix Platzer, Eric Fimbinger

Abstract:

In Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations, the breakage behavior of particles can be simulated based on different principles. In the case of large, complex-shaped particles that show various breakage patterns depending on the scenario leading to the failure and often only break locally instead of fracturing completely, some of these principles do not lead to realistic results. The reason for this is that in said cases, the methods in question, such as the Particle Replacement Method (PRM) or Voronoi Fracture, replace the initial particle (that is intended to break) into several sub-particles when certain breakage criteria are reached, such as exceeding the fracture energy. That is why those methods are commonly used for the simulation of materials that fracture completely instead of breaking locally. That being the case, when simulating local failure, it is advisable to pre-build the initial particle from sub-particles that are bonded together. The dimensions of these sub-particles consequently define the minimum size of the fracture results. This structure of bonded sub-particles enables the initial particle to break at the location of the highest local loads – due to the failure of the bonds in those areas – with several sub-particle clusters being the result of the fracture, which can again also break locally. In this project, different methods for the generation and calibration of complex-shaped particle conglomerates using bonded particle modeling (BPM) to enable the ability to depict more realistic fracture behavior were evaluated based on the example of filter cake. The method that proved suitable for this purpose and which furthermore allows efficient and realistic simulation of breakage behavior of complex-shaped particles applicable to industrial-sized simulations is presented in this paper.

Keywords: bonded particle model, DEM, filter cake, particle breakage

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Authors: Theresa Robinson Harris

Abstract:

Small businesses are important to the United States economy, yet the majority struggle to remain relevant and close before their fifth year. This qualitative study explored small business failure by comparing the experiences of small-business owners to understand their involvement with leadership during the early stages of the business, and the impact of this on the firms’ ability to survive. Participants’ experiences from two groups were compared to glean an understanding of the leadership process, how leadership differs between the groups, and to see what themes or constructs emerged that could help to explain the high failure rate. Leadership was perceived to be important when envisioning a path for the future and when providing a platform for employees to succeed. Those who embraced leadership as a skillset were more likely to get through the challenges of the early developmental years while those ignoring the importance of leadership were more likely to close prematurely. These findings suggest a disconnect with regards to the understanding, role, and benefits of leadership in small organizations, particularly young organizations in the early stages of development.

Keywords: leadership, small business, entrepreneurship, success, failure

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