Search results for: climate risks

Authors: Arya Farjand

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This study delves into the Early Pleistocene fauna of the Yuanmou Basin, highlighting two significant findings. The first is the discovery of exceptionally well-preserved canid coprolites, which provide a rare glimpse into the diet and ecological niche of these ancient carnivores. The analysis of these coprolites has revealed a diet rich in diverse prey species, suggesting a complex food web and a dynamic ecological environment. This discovery not only sheds light on the dietary habits of these canids but also offers broader insights into the region's ecological dynamics during the Early Pleistocene. Additionally, the preservation of these coprolites allows for detailed study of the carnivore's role in the ecosystem, including their interactions with other species and the overall health of the environment. The second major finding is the identification of a mustelid species, Eirictis yuanmouensis, from the same fossil horizon as the coprolites. This discovery is crucial for understanding the diversity and evolution of Mustelidae in the region. The detailed analysis of cranial and dental morphology of Eirictis yuanmouensis indicates unique adaptations that suggest a specialized ecological niche. This finding, in conjunction with the coprolite analysis, provides a comprehensive view of the ecological niches occupied by both mustelids and hyenas, enhancing our understanding of their adaptations and interactions within this paleoenvironment. The study's significance is further amplified by the analysis of pollen data from the same horizon, which indicates a paleoenvironment characterized by rapid climatic changes and a dominant semiarid climate. This combination of faunal and floral data paints a detailed picture of the Early Pleistocene environment in the Yuanmou Basin, offering valuable insights into the interactions between different carnivore species and their adaptation strategies in response to changing environmental conditions.

Keywords: Yuanmou Basin, coprolite, Hyaena, eirictis yuanmouensis, early pleistocene

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Authors: Dana Cassandra Winkler, Delia Leiding, Rene Bergs, Franziska Kaiser, Ramona Kirchhart, Ute Habel

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Background: Violence is a multidimensional phenomenon, affecting people of every age, socio-economic status and gender. Nevertheless, most studies primarily focus on men perpetrating women. Aim of the present study is to identify the likelihood of mental and somatic disorders and risk-taking behavior in male violence affected. In addition, the relationship between age of violence experience and the risk for health-related problems was analyzed. Method: On the basis of current evidence, a questionnaire was developed focusing on demographic background, health status, risk-taking behavior, and active and passive violence exposure. In total, 5221 males (Mean: 56,1 years, SD: 17,6) were consulted. To account for the time of violence experience in an efficient way, age clusters ‘0-12 years’, ‘13-20 years’, ‘21-35 years’, ‘36-65 years’ and ‘over 65 years’ were defined. A binary logistic regression was calculated to reveal differences in violence-affected and non-violence affected males regarding health and risk-taking factors. Males who experienced violence on a daily/ almost daily basis vs. males who reported violence occurrence once/ several times a month/ year were compared with respect to health factors and risk-taking behavior. Data of males, who indicated active and passive violence exposure, were analyzed by a chi²-analysis, to investigate a possible relation between the age of victimization and violence perpetration. Findings: Results imply that general violence experience, independent of active and passive violence exposure increases the likelihood in favor of somatic-, psychosomatic- and mental disorders as well as risk-taking behavior in males. Experiencing violence on a daily or almost daily basis in childhood and adolescence may serve as a predictor for increased health problems and risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, the violence experience and perpetration occur significantly within the same age cluster. This underlines the importance of a near-term intervention to minimize the risk, that victims become perpetrators later. Conclusion: The present study reveals predictors concerning health risk factors as well as risk-taking behavior in males with violence exposure. The results of this study may underscore the benefit of intervention and regular health care approaches in violence-affected males and underline the importance of acknowledging the overlap of violence experience and perpetration for further research.

Keywords: health disease, male, mental health, prevalence, risk-taking behavior, violence

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Authors: Gurbanova Lamiya

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The Republic of Azerbaijan is considered a region with limited water resources, as up to 70% of surface water is formed outside the country's borders, and most of its territory is an arid (dry) climate zone. It is located at the lower limit of transboundary flows, which is the weakest source of natural water resources in the South Caucasus. It is essential to correctly assess the quality of natural, collector-drainage and groundwater of the area and their suitability for irrigation in order to properly carry out land reclamation measures, provide the normal water-salt regime, and prevent repeated salinization. Through the 141-km-long main Mil-Mugan collector, groundwater, household waste, and floodwaters generated during floods and landslides are poured into the Caspian Sea. The hydrochemical composition of the samples taken from the Sabir irrigation canal passing through the center of the Kura-Araz plain, the Main Mil-Mugan Collector, and the groundwater of the region, which we chose as our research object, were studied and the obtained results were compared by periods. A model is proposed that allows for a complete visualization of the primary materials collected for the study area. The practical use of the established digital model provides all possibilities. The practical use of the established digital model provides all possibilities. An extensive database was created with the ArcGis 10.8 package, using publicly available LandSat satellite images as primary data in addition to ground surveys to build the model. The principles of the construction of the geographic information system of modern GIS technology were developed, the boundary and initial condition of the research area were evaluated, and forecasts and recommendations were given.

Keywords: irrigation channel, groundwater, collector, meliorative measures

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Authors: Sidra Suleman, Maliha Suleman, Jinesh Shah

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Maxillary canines play a crucial role in occlusion and aesthetics. Successful management of impacted canines requires early identification and intervention to prevent complications such as resorption of adjacent teeth and cystic changes. Although removal of the deciduous canine can encourage normal eruption of its successor, this is not always successful. Some patients may require surgical exposure and bonding of a gold chain to mobilise and align the canine, which can take up to 3 years. As this procedure has various risks, patients need to be appropriately consented to. Failure of such treatment commonly occurs due to inadequate anchorage or failure of the gold chain attachment, but in some cases, this is due to ankylosis. Aim: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of ankylosis of unerupted maxillary ectopic canines following surgical exposure and orthodontic alignment at the Maxillofacial and Orthodontic Department, Royal Stoke University Hospital (RSUH), United Kingdom. Methodology: Patients treated from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019, were retrospectively studied. Electronic records with post-treatment follow-up at 3-6 months and 12-15 months were extracted and analysed. Patients were excluded based on three criteria, non-compliance with orthodontic treatment post-surgery, presence of canine transposition, and external orthodontic treatment. Sample: Overall, 159 suitable patients were selected from the 171 patients identified. Surgical exposure and gold chain bonding was carried out for a total of 206 maxillary canines, with the pattern of impaction being 159 (77.2 %) palatal, 46 (22.3%) buccal, and 1 (0.49%) in line of the arch. The sample consisted of 57 (35.8%) males and 102 (64.2%) females between the age range of 10 to 32 years, with the mean age being 15 years. The procedures were carried out under general anaesthesia for all but three patients, with two cases being repeats. Closed exposure was carried out for 189 (91.7%) canines. Results: The incidence of ankylosis from this study was 0.97%. In total, two patients had upper left canine ankylosis, which was identified at their 12-15 months orthodontic follow-up. Both patients were males, one having closed exposure at age 15 and the other having open exposure at age 19. Conclusions: Although this data shows that there is a low risk of ankylosis (0.97%), it highlights the difficulty in predicting which patients may be affected, and thus, a thorough pre-treatment assessment and careful observation during treatment is necessary. Future studies involving larger cohorts are warranted to further analyse factors affecting outcomes.

Keywords: ankylosis, ectopic, maxillary canines, orthodontics

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Authors: Jessica Achebe, Susan Tighe

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The reduction of material consumption and greenhouse gas emission when maintain and rehabilitating road networks can achieve added benefits including improved life cycle performance of pavements, reduced climate change impacts and human health effect due to less air pollution, improved productivity due to an optimal allocation of resources and reduced road user cost. This is the essence of incorporating environmental sustainability into pavement management. The functionality of performance measurement approach has made it one of the most valuable tool to Pavement Management Systems (PMSs) to account for different criteria in the decision-making process. However measuring the environmental performance of road network is still a far-fetched practice in road network management, more so an ostensive agency-wide environmental sustainability or sustainable maintenance specifications is missing. To address this challenge, this present research focuses on the environmental sustainability performance of network-level pavement management. The ultimate goal is to develop a framework to incorporate environmental sustainability in pavement management systems for network-level maintenance programming. In order to achieve this goal, this paper present the first step, the intention is to review the previous studies that employed environmental performance measures, as well as the suitability of environmental performance indicators for the evaluation of the sustainability of network-level pavement maintenance strategies. Through an industry practice survey, this paper provides a brief forward regarding the pavement manager motivations and barriers to making more sustainable decisions, and data needed to support the network-level environmental sustainability. The trends in network-level sustainable pavement management are also presented, existing gaps are highlighted, and ideas are proposed for network-level sustainable maintenance and rehabilitation programming.

Keywords: pavement management, environment sustainability, network-level evaluation, performance measures

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Authors: Yin-Hsuan Wu, Perng-Jy Tsai, Ying-Fang Wang, Shun-Hui Chung

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The present study was conducted to characterize exposure concentrations, concentrations deposited on the different respiratory regions, and resultant health risks associated with heavy metal exposures for road marking workers. Road marking workers of three similar exposure groups (SEGs) were selected, including the paint pouring worker, marking worker, and preparing worker. Personal exposure samples were collected using an inhalable dust sampler (IOM), and the involved particle size distribution samples were estimated using an eight-stage Marple personal cascade impactor during five working days. In total, 25 IOM samples and 20 Marple samples were collected. All collected samples were analyzed for their heavy metal contents using the ICP/MS. The resultant heavy metal particle size distributions were also used to estimate the fractions of particle deposited on the head airways (Chead), tracheobronchial (Cthorac) and alveolar regions (Cresp) of the exposed workers. In addition, Pb and Cr were selected to estimate the incremental cancer risk, and Zn, Ti, and Mo were selected to estimate the corresponding non-cancer risk in the present study. Results show that three heavy metals, including Pb, Cr, and Ti, were found with the highest concentrations for the SEG of the paint pouring worker (=0.585±2.98, 0.307±1.71, 0.902±2.99 μg/m³, respectively). For the fraction of heavy metal particle deposited on the respiratory tract, both alveolar and head regions were found with the highest values (=23-43% and 39-61%, respectively). For both SEGs of the paint pouring and marking, 51% of Cr, 59-61% of Zn, and 48-51% of Ti were found to be deposited on the alveolar region, and 41-43% of Pb was deposited on the head region. Finally, the incremental cancer risk for the SEGs of the paint pouring, marking, and preparing were found as 1.08×10⁻⁵, 2.78×10⁻⁶, and 2.20×10⁻⁶, respectively. In addition, the estimated non-cancer risk for the above three SEGs was found to be consistently less than unity. In conclusion, though the estimated non-cancer risk was less than unity, all resultant incremental cancer risk was greater than 10⁻⁶ indicating the abatement of workers’ exposure is necessary. It is suggested that strategies, including placing on the molten kettle, substitution the currently used paints for less heavy metal containing paints, and wearing fume protecting personal protective equipment can be considered in the future from reducing the worker’s exposure aspect.

Keywords: health risk assessment, heavy metal, respiratory track deposition, road marking

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Authors: Arijit Saha, Hassan Kassem, Leo Hoening

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Ongoing climate change demands the increasing use of renewable energies. Wind energy plays an important role in this context since it can be applied almost everywhere in the world. To reduce the costs of wind turbines and to make them more competitive, simulations are very important since experiments are often too costly if at all possible. The wind turbine on a vast open area experiences the turbulence generated due to the atmosphere, so it was of utmost interest from this research point of view to generate the turbulence through various Inlet Turbulence Generation methods like Precursor cyclic and Kaimal Spectrum Exponential Coherence (KSEC) in the computational simulation domain. To be able to validate computational fluid dynamic simulations of wind turbines with the experimental data, it is crucial to set up the conditions in the simulation as close to reality as possible. This present work, therefore, aims at investigating the turbulent inflow strategy and boundary conditions of KSEC and providing a comparative analysis alongside the Precursor cyclic method for Large Eddy Simulation within the context of wind energy applications. For the generation of the turbulent box through KSEC method, firstly, the constrained data were collected from an auxiliary channel flow, and later processing was performed with the open-source tool PyconTurb, whereas for the precursor cyclic, only the data from the auxiliary channel were sufficient. The functionality of these methods was studied through various statistical properties such as variance, turbulent intensity, etc with respect to different Bulk Reynolds numbers, and a conclusion was drawn on the feasibility of KSEC method. Furthermore, it was found necessary to verify the obtained data with DNS case setup for its applicability to use it as a real field CFD simulation.

Keywords: Inlet Turbulence Generation, CFD, precursor cyclic, KSEC, large Eddy simulation, PyconTurb

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Authors: Driouiche Ali, Karmal Ilham

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The Agadir region is characterized by a dry climate, ranging from arid attenuated by oceanic influences to hyper-arid. The water mobilized in the agricultural sector of greater Agadir is 95% of underground origin and comes from the water table of Chtouka. The rest represents the surface waters of the Youssef Ben Tachfine dam. These waters are intended for the irrigation of 26880 hectares of modern agriculture. More than 120 boreholes and wells are currently exploited. Their depth varies between 10 m and 200 m and the unit flow rates of the boreholes are 5 to 50 l/s. A drop in the level of the water table of about 1.5 m/year, on average, has been observed during the last five years. Farmers are thus called upon to improve irrigation methods. Thus, localized or drip irrigation is adopted to allow rational use of water. The importance of this irrigation system is due to the fact that water is applied directly to the root zone and its compatibility with fertilization. However, this irrigation system faces a thorny problem which is the clogging of pipes and drippers. This leads to a lack of uniformity of irrigation over time. This so-called scaling phenomenon, the consequences of which are harmful (cleaning or replacement of pipes), leads to considerable unproductive expenditure. The objective set by this work is the search for green inhibitors likely to prevent this phenomenon of scaling. This study requires a better knowledge of these waters, their physico-chemical characteristics and their scaling power. Thus, using the "LCGE" controlled degassing technique, we initially evaluated, on pure calco-carbonic water at 30°F, the scaling-inhibiting power of some available plant extracts in our region of Souss-Massa. We then carried out a comparative study of the efficacy of these green inhibitors. The action of the most effective green inhibitor on real agricultural waters was then studied.

Keywords: green inhibitors, localized irrigation, plant extracts, scaling inhibition

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Authors: M. Wangai

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Following the promulgation of a new Constitution of Kenya in 2010, wide-ranging proposals for reform of the criminal justice system have been made. Proposed measures include a clear and separate system of dealing with juvenile offenders with a greater focus on rehabilitation and reintegration. As part of a broader constitutional transition, this article considers the contribution of restorative justice to reforming the youth justice system. The paper analyses Kenya’s juvenile justice legal framework measured against current international trends in youth justice. It identifies the first post-independence juvenile justice system as a remnant of the colonial period and notes that the post-2001 system is a marked improvement. More recent legal and institutional efforts to incorporate restorative justice are also examined. The paper advocates further development of the juvenile justice system by mainstreaming of restorative justice principles through national level legislative amendments. International and comparative perspectives are used to inform a diversion centered model of restorative justice. In addition, a case is made for the use of existing forms of alternative dispute resolution. Conscious of a tense political climate, the paper also proposes strategies to address challenges posed by a punitive penal environment, chiefly the linking of restorative justice to wider democratic goals and community spirit. The article concludes that restorative justice led juvenile justice reform will contribute to better treatment of young offenders under the criminal justice system and has the potential to set a new precedent for fair, sustainable and effective justice. Further, as part of far-reaching criminal justice reform, the proposed efforts may strengthen democratic progress in Kenya’s ensuing phase of political transition.

Keywords: constitutional transition, criminal justice, restorative justice, young offenders

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Authors: Murtala Gada Abubakar, Aliyu T. Umar

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A substantial part of Nigeria is part of semi-arid areas of the world, underlain by basement complex (hard) rocks which are very poor in both transmission and storage of appreciable quantity of water. Recently, a growing attention is being paid on the need to develop water resources in these areas largely due to concerns about increasing droughts and the need to maintain water security challenges. While there is ample body of knowledge that captures the hydrological behaviours of the sedimentary part, reported research which unambiguously illustrates water distribution in the basement complex of the Sokoto basin remains sparse. Considering the growing need to meet the water requirements of those living in this region necessitated the call for accurate water balance estimations that can inform a sustainable planning and development to address water security challenges for the area. To meet this task, a one-dimensional soil water balance model was developed and utilised to assess the state of water distribution within the Sokoto basin basement complex using measured meteorological variables and information about different landscapes within the complex. The model simulated the soil water storage and rates of input and output of water in response to climate and irrigation where applicable using data from 2001 to 2010 inclusive. The results revealed areas within the Sokoto basin basement complex that are rich and deficient in groundwater resource. The high potential areas identified includes the fadama, the fractured rocks and the cultivated lands, while the low potential areas are the sealed surfaces and non-fractured rocks. This study concludes that the modelling approach is a useful tool for assessing the hydrological behaviour and for better understanding the water resource availability within a basement complex.

Keywords: basement complex, hydrological processes, Sokoto Basin, water security

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Authors: Hamed Reza Heshmat Mohajer, Lan Ding, Mattheos Santamouris

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One of the worst environmental dangers for people who live in cities is the Urban Heat Island (UHI) impact which is anticipated to become stronger in the coming years as a result of climate change. Accordingly, the key aim of this paper is to study the interaction between the urban configuration and mitigation strategies including increasing albedo of the urban environment (reflective material), implementation of Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) and/or a combination thereof. To analyse the microclimate models of different urban categories in the metropolis of Sydney, this study will assess meteorological parameters using a 3D model simulation tool of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) named ENVI-met. In this study, four main parameters are taken into consideration while assessing the effectiveness of UHI mitigation strategies: ambient air temperature, wind speed/direction, and outdoor thermal comfort. Layouts with present condition simulation studies from the basic model (scenario one) are taken as the benchmark. A base model is used to calculate the relative percentage variations between each scenario. The findings showed that maximum cooling potential across different urban layouts can be decreased by 2.15 °C degrees by combining high-albedo material with flora; besides layouts with open arrangements(OT1) present a highly remarkable improvement in ambient air temperature and outdoor thermal comfort when mitigation technologies applied compare to compact counterparts. Besides all layouts present a higher intensity on the maximum ambient air temperature reduction rather than the minimum ambient air temperature. On the other hand, Scenarios associated with an increase in greeneries are anticipated to have a slight cooling effect, especially on high-rise layouts.

Keywords: sustainable urban development, urban green infrastructure, high-albedo materials, heat island effect

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: B. Mendonça, D. Sandwell

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The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) has suffered from serious water scarcity. Consequently, the most convenient solution has been building wells to extract groundwater from local aquifers. However, it requires constant vigilance to prevent over extraction and future events that can pose serious threat to the population, such as subsidence. Radar imaging techniques (InSAR) have allowed continuous investigation of such phenomena. The analysis of data in the present study consists of 23 SAR images dated from October 2007 to March 2011, obtained by the ALOS-1 spacecraft. Data processing was made with the software GMTSAR, by using the InSAR technique to create pairs of interferograms with ground displacement during different time spans. First results show a correlation between the location of 102 wells registered in 2009 and signals of ground displacement equal or lower than -90 millimeters (mm) in the region. The longest time span interferogram obtained dates from October 2007 to March 2010. As a result, from that interferogram, it was possible to detect the average velocity of displacement in millimeters per year (mm/y), and which areas strong signals have persisted in the MRSP. Four specific areas with signals of subsidence of 28 mm/y to 40 mm/y were chosen to investigate the phenomenon: Guarulhos (Sao Paulo International Airport), the Greater Sao Paulo, Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul. The coverage area of the signals was between 0.6 km and 1.65 km of length. All areas are located above a sedimentary type of aquifer. Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul showed signals varying from 28 mm/y to 32 mm/y. On the other hand, the places most likely to be suffering from stronger subsidence are the ones in the Greater Sao Paulo and Guarulhos, right beside the International Airport of Sao Paulo. The rate of displacement observed in both regions goes from 35 mm/y to 40 mm/y. Previous investigations of the water use at the International Airport highlight the risks of excessive water extraction that was being done through 9 deep wells. Therefore, it is affirmed that subsidence events are likely to occur and to cause serious damage in the area. This study could show a situation that has not been explored with proper importance in the city, given its social and economic consequences. Since the data were only available until 2011, the question that remains is if the situation still persists. It could be reaffirmed, however, a scenario of risk at the International Airport of Sao Paulo that needs further investigation.

Keywords: ground subsidence, Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar (InSAR), metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, water extraction

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Authors: Maffo Maffo Nicole Liliane, Mounmeni Kpoumie Hubert, Mbaire Matindje Karl Marx, Zapfack Louis

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Sacred forests play a valuable role in conserving local biodiversity and provide numerous ecosystem services in Cameroon. The study was carried out in the sacred forests of Bandrefam and Batoufam (western Cameroon). The aim was to estimate the diversity of woody species, carbon stocks and degradation factors in these sacred forests. The floristic inventory was carried out in plots measuring 25m × 25m for trees with diameters greater than 10 cm and 5m × 5m for trees with diameters less than 10 cm. Carbon stocks were estimated using the non-destructive method and the allometric equations. Data on degradation factors were collected using semi-structured surveys in the Bandrefam and Batoufam neighborhoods. The floristic inventory identified 65 species divided into 57 genera and 30 families in the Bandrefam Sacred Forest and 45 species divided into 42 genera and 27 families in the Batoufam Sacres Forest. The families common to both sacred forests are as follows: Phyllanthaceae, Fabaceae, Moraceae, Lamiaceae, Malvaceae, Rubiaceae, Meliaceae, Anacardiaceae, and Sapindaceae. Three genera are present in both sites. These are: Albizia, Macaranga, Trichillia. In addition, there are 27 species in common between the two sites. The total carbon stock is 469.26 tC/ha at Batoufam and 291.41 tC/ha at Bandrefam. The economic value varies between 15 823 877.05 fcfa at Batoufam and 9 825 530.528 fcfa at Bandrefam. The study shows that despite the sacred nature of these forests, they are subject to degradation factors such as bushfires (35.42 %), the creation of plantations (23.96 %), illegal timber exploitation (21.88 %), young people's lack of interest in the notion of conservation (9.38 %), climate change (7.29 %) and growing urbanization (2.08 %). These factors threaten biodiversity and reduce carbon storage in these forests.

Keywords: sacred forests, degradation factors, carbon stocks, semi-structured surveys

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Authors: Racha El Kadiri, Mohamed Sultan, Henrique Momm, Zachary Blair, Rachel Schultz, Tamer Al-Bayoumi

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The Mediterranean Basin is a very diverse region of nationalities and climate zones, with a strong dependence on agricultural activities. Predicting long term (with a lead of 1 to 12 months) rainfall, and future droughts could contribute in a sustainable management of water resources and economical activities. In this study, an integrated approach was adopted to construct predictive tools with lead times of 0 to 12 months to forecast rainfall amounts over nine subzones of the Mediterranean Basin region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire, assess and intercorrelate temporal remote sensing-based rainfall products (e.g. The CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP]) throughout the investigation period (1979 to 2016), (2) acquire and assess monthly values for all of the climatic indices influencing the regional and global climatic patterns (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); (3) delineate homogenous climatic regions and select nine pilot study zones, (4) apply data mining methods (e.g. neural networks, principal component analyses) to extract relationships between the observed rainfall and the controlling factors (i.e. climatic indices with multiple lead-time periods) and (5) use the constructed predictive tools to forecast monthly rainfall and dry and wet periods. Preliminary results indicate that rainfall and dry/wet periods were successfully predicted with lead zones of 0 to 12 months using the adopted methodology, and that the approach is more accurately applicable in the southern Mediterranean region.

Keywords: rainfall, neural networks, climatic indices, Mediterranean

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Authors: Divya Ramaseshan

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The indigenous beauty of a space supported by its local context is unmatchable. India, known to be a hub for varied cultural significance, has one of the best uses of vernacularism. This paper focuses on the traditional houses present in Thirumayilai, Mylapore, one of the oldest and most populous cities in Chennai. The Mylapore houses are known for their Agraharam style with thinnai, courtyard, and sloping roof characteristics. These homes had a combined influence of Indian, Islamic as well as Neo-classical architecture in their design. The design of the houses reflects the lives of Brahmin communities which have almost vanished from sight now. According to the growing demands of local residents as well as urbanization, many houses have been renovated. Some of those structures have been conserved in certain streets showcasing their historical identity. Other structures have either been demolished or redesigned based on people’s needs. Those structures have been identified and studied to understand the comparative features that have been changed. Many of those were in direct relevance to the city’s climate, family size, socializing habits, and local materials. Being a temple town, Mylapore has contour variations sloping towards various water bodies. These factors have been considered for building homes as well. The study aims to list down the possible design guidelines that could be effective in today’s construction field. The pros and cons are analyzed, and the respective methodologies are framed. Our modern construction technologies have brought in the best visual aesthetics in a short frame of time, but the serene touch of teak wood, walking through paved stones, daydreaming in the sunlit courtyards, and chitchatting in porticos are always cherished. Architects around the world are trying hard to achieve such appreciated design elements in upcoming projects with the best use of modern technology. This will also improvise people’s mental health in the comfort of their homes.

Keywords: Agraharam, Mylapore, traditional, vernacularism

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Authors: Salman Ahmad, Muhammad Aown Sammar Raza, Muhammad Farrukh Saleem, Rashid Iqbal, Muhammad Saqlain Zaheer, Muhammad Usman Aslam, Imran Haider, Muhammad Adnan Nazar, Muhammad Ali

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Among the various abiotic stresses, drought stress is one of the most challenging for field crops. Wheat is one of the major staple food of the world, which is highly affected by water deficit stress in the current scenario of climate change. In order to ensure food security by depleting water resources, there is an urgent need to adopt technologies which result in sufficient crop yield with less water consumption. Mulching and partial rootzone drying (PRD) are two important management techniques used for water conservation and to mitigate the negative impacts of drought. The experiment was conducted to screen out the best-suited mulch for wheat under PRD system. Two water application techniques (I1= full irrigation I2= PRD irrigation) and four mulch treatments (M0= un-mulched, M1= black plastic mulch, M2= wheat straw mulch and M4= cotton sticks mulch) were conducted in completely randomized design with four replications. The treatment, black plastic mulch was performed the best than other mulch treatments. For irrigation levels, higher values of growth, physiological and water-related parameters were recorded in control treatment while, quality traits and enzymatic activities were higher under partial root zone drying. The current study concluded that adverse effects of drought on wheat can be significantly mitigated by using mulches but black plastic mulch was best suited for partial rootzone drying irrigation system in wheat.

Keywords: antioxidants, leaf water relations, Mulches, osmolytes, partial root zone drying, photosynthesis

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Authors: Bereket Amare Mulu

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Ethiopia is one of the countries that consists of a huge variety of botanical resources as compared to the world. The agroclimatic is suitable for a variety of plants to grow effectively throughout the year. Sources of food plants are basic items for people in the world. Production of food items is a prior activity and needs more resources and attention to produce a huge amount of production. The local food is rich in nutrition and healthful foods. The local food is fresh and not exposed to infections easily. The community can easily get the food items in their surroundings. The local food sources are not expensive when it is compared to the other proceed food items, and it is affordable to the community purchasing power. The food is very tasty and palatable capacity by the whole community categories. The basic problems in Ethiopia are the community experiences some of the common food source items. On the contrary, inefficient food production, low economic growth, and climate variability affected food production. This leads to serious food shortages and acute health problems. The objective of the study is to identify local food sources and analyze the advantage and benefits of local food sources. Casava is one of the root crop plants in Ethiopia and easily adapts to any type of agroecology in every place in the country. 50 community members have been identified to prepare casava in different forms of food items. They have prepared in the forms of Bread, Injera, Porridge, Boiled casava, fried chips Casava, and Cocktails. The prepared food items have been exposed to the community as a food festival to eat and taste how much interesting Even though there is a cultural barrier to eating the food items, the community had the food and tasted it the food. The result showed that community awareness is still not addressed the benefits of local food sources yet. The local food has high nutritional value and healthful foods. The local food sources are fresh and easily produced in every place of the country.

Keywords: bread, cassava, injera, nutrition

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Authors: Daniel Thompson, Muhammad Peerbux, Sophie Cerutti, Hansraj Riteesh Bookun

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Patients with carotid stenosis, which may be asymptomatic or symptomatic in the form of transient ischaemic attack (TIA), amaurosis fugax, or stroke, often require an endarterectomy to reduce stroke risk. Risks of this procedure include stroke, death, myocardial infarction, and cranial nerve damage. Carotid endarterectomy is most commonly performed under general anaesthetic, however, it can also be undertaken with a regional anaesthetic approach. Our tertiary centre generally performs carotid endarterectomy under regional anaesthetic. Our major tertiary hospital mostly utilises regional anaesthesia for carotid endarterectomy. We completed a cross-sectional analysis of all cases of carotid endarterectomy performed under regional anaesthesia across a 10-year period between January 2010 to March 2020 at our institution. 350 patients were included in this descriptive analysis, and demographic details for patients, indications for surgery, procedural details, length of surgery, and complications were collected. Data was cross tabulated and presented in frequency tables to describe these categorical variables. 263 of the 350 patients in the analysis were male, with a mean age of 71 ± 9. 172 patients had a history of ischaemic heart disease, 104 had diabetes mellitus, 318 had hypertension, and 17 patients had chronic kidney disease greater than Stage 3. 13.1% (46 patients) were current smokers, and the majority (63%) were ex-smokers. Most commonly, carotid endarterectomy was performed conventionally with patch arterioplasty 96% of the time (337 patients). The most common indication was TIA and stroke in 64% of patients, 18.9% were classified as asymptomatic, and 13.7% had amaurosis fugax. There were few general complications, with 9 wound complications/infections, 7 postoperative haematomas requiring return to theatre, 3 myocardial infarctions, 3 arrhythmias, 1 exacerbation of congestive heart failure, 1 chest infection, and 1 urinary tract infection. Specific complications to carotid endarterectomy included 3 strokes, 1 postoperative TIA, and 1 cerebral bleed. There were no deaths in our cohort. This analysis of a large cohort of patients from a major tertiary centre who underwent carotid endarterectomy under regional anaesthesia indicates the safety of such an approach for these patients. Regional anaesthesia holds the promise of less general respiratory and cardiac events compared to general anaesthesia, and in this vulnerable patient group, calls for comparative research between local and general anaesthesia in carotid surgery.

Keywords: anaesthesia, carotid endarterectomy, stroke, carotid stenosis

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Authors: Fatima Majeed Almonajim

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Panucum miliaceum L is a plant from the genus Gramineae, In the world, millets are regarded as a significant grain, however, they are very little exploited. Millet grain is abundant in nutrients and health-beneficial phenolic compounds, making it suitable as food and feed. The plant has received considerable attention for its high content of phenolic compounds, low glycemic index, the presence of unsaturated fats and lack of gluten which are beneficial to human health, and thus, have made the plant being effective in treating celiac disease, diabetes, lowering blood lipids (cholesterol) and preventing tumors. Moreover, the plant requires little water to grow, a property that is worth considering. This study provides an overview of the nutritional and health benefits provided by millet types grown in 2 areas Iraq and Iran, aiming to compare the effect of climate on the components of millet. In this research, millet samples collected from the both Babylon (Iraqi) and Isfahan (Iranian) types were extracted and after HPTLC, the resulted pattern of the two samples were compared. As a result, the Iranian millet showed more terpenoid compounds than Iraqi millet, and therefore, Iranian millet has a higher priority than Iraqi millet in increasing the human body's immunity. On the other hand, in view of the number of essential amino acids, the Iraqi millet contains more nutritional value compared to the Iranian millet. Also, due to the higher amount of histidine in the Iranian millet, compiled to the lack of gluten found from previous studies, we came to the conclusion that the addition of millet in the diet of children, more specifically those children with irritable bowel syndrome, can be considered beneficial. Therefore, as a component of dairy products, millet can be used in preparing food for children such as dry milk.

Keywords: HPTLC, phytochemicals, specialty foods, Panucum miliaceum L, nutrition

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Authors: Benedict O. Muyale, Emmanuel S. Murunga

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Cities have always been the loci for nationals as well as growth of cultural fusion and innovation. Over 50%of global population dwells in cities and urban centers. This means that cities are prolific users of natural resources and generators of waste; hence they produce most of the greenhouse gases which are causing global climate change. The root cause of increase in the transport sector carbon curve is mainly the greater numbers of individually owned cars. Development in these cities is geared towards economic progress while environmental sustainability is ignored. Infrastructure projects focus on road expansion, electrification, and more parking spaces. These lead to more carbon emissions, traffic congestion, and air pollution. Recent development plans for Nairobi city are now on road expansion with little priority for electric train solutions. The Vision 2030, Kenya’s development guide, has shed some light on the city with numerous road expansion projects. This chapter seeks to realize the following objectives; (1) to assess the current transport situation of Nairobi; (2) to review green transport solutions being undertaken in the city; (3) to give an overview of alternative green transportation solutions, and (4) to provide a green transportation framework matrix. This preliminary study will utilize primary and secondary data through mainly desktop research and analysis, literature, books, magazines and on-line information. This forms the basis for formulation of approaches for incorporation into the green transportation framework matrix of the main study report.The main goal is the achievement of a practical green transportation system for implementation by the City County of Nairobi to reduce carbon emissions and congestion and promote environmental sustainability.

Keywords: cities, transport, Nairobi, green technologies

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Authors: Scott Hollier, Ruchi Permvattana

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The purpose of this abstract is to share the findings of a recently completed disability-related Internet of Things (IoT) project undertaken at Curtin University in Australia. The project focused on identifying how IoT could support people with disabilities with their educational outcomes. To achieve this, the research consisted of an analysis of current literature and interviews conducted with students with vision, hearing, mobility and print disabilities. While the research acknowledged the ability to collect data with IoT is now a fairly common occurrence, its benefits and applicability still need to be grounded back into real-world applications. Furthermore, it is important to consider if there are sections of our society that may benefit from these developments and if those benefits are being fully realised in a rush by large companies to achieve IoT dominance for their particular product or digital ecosystem. In this context, it is important to consider a group which, to our knowledge, has had little specific mainstream focus in the IoT area –people with disabilities. For people with disabilities, the ability for every device to interact with us and with each other has the potential to yield significant benefits. In terms of engagement, the arrival of smart appliances is already offering benefits such as the ability for a person in a wheelchair to give verbal commands to an IoT-enabled washing machine if the buttons are out of reach, or for a blind person to receive a notification on a smartphone when dinner has finished cooking in an IoT-enabled microwave. With clear benefits of IoT being identified for people with disabilities, it is important to also identify what implications there are for education. With higher education being a critical pathway for many people with disabilities in finding employment, the question as to whether such technologies can support the educational outcomes of people with disabilities was what ultimately led to this research project. This research will discuss several significant findings that have emerged from the research in relation to how consumer-based IoT can be used in the classroom to support the learning needs of students with disabilities, how industrial-based IoT sensors and actuators can be used to monitor and improve the real-time learning outcomes for the delivery of lectures and student engagement, and a proposed method for students to gain more control over their learning environment. The findings shared in this presentation are likely to have significant implications for the use of IoT in the classroom through the implementation of affordable and accessible IoT solutions and will provide guidance as to how policies can be developed as the implications of both benefits and risks continue to be considered by educators.

Keywords: disability, higher education, internet of things, students

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Authors: M. Johnson, R. Faggian, V. Sposito

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A participatory and engaged approach is key in connecting agricultural managers to sustainable agricultural systems to support and optimize production in Victoria’s food bowl. A sustainable intensification (SI) approach is well documented globally, but participation rates amongst Victorian farmers is fragmentary, and key outcomes and implementation strategies are poorly understood. Improvement in decision-support management tools and a greater understanding of the productivity gains available upon implementation of SI is necessary. This paper reviews the current understanding and uptake of SI practices amongst farmers in one of Victoria’s premier food producing regions, the Goulburn Broken; and it spatially analyses the potential for this region to adapt to climate change and optimize food production. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) approach is taken to develop an interactive decision-support tool that can be accessible to on-ground agricultural managers. The tool encompasses multiple criteria analysis (MCA) that identifies factors during the construction phase of the tool, using expert witnesses and regional knowledge, framed within an Analytical Hierarchy Process. Given the complexities of the interrelations between each of the key outcomes, this participatory approach, in which local realities and factors inform the key outcomes and help to strategies for a particular region, results in a robust strategy for sustainably intensifying production in key food producing regions. The creation of an interactive, locally embedded, decision-support management and education tool can help to close the gap between farmer knowledge and production, increase on-farm adoption of sustainable farming strategies and techniques, and optimize farm productivity.

Keywords: agriculture, decision-support management tool, Geographic Information System, GIS, sustainable intensification

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Authors: Martina Santobuono, Wing Sze Chan, Elettra D'Amico, Henriette Selck

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Chemicals in modern society are fundamental in many different aspects of daily human life. We use a wide range of substances, including polychlorinated compounds, pesticides, plasticizers, and pharmaceuticals, to name a few. These compounds are excessively produced, and this has led to their introduction to the environment and food resources. Municipal and industrial effluents, landfills, and agricultural runoffs are a few examples of sources of chemical pollution. Many of these compounds, such as pharmaceuticals, have been proven to mimic or alter the performance of the hormone system, thus disrupting its normal function and altering the behavior and reproductive capability of non-target organisms. Antidepressants are pharmaceuticals commonly detected in the environment, usually in the range of ng L⁻¹ and µg L⁻¹. Since they are designed to have a biological effect at low concentrations, they might pose a risk to the native species, especially if exposure lasts for long periods. Hydrophobic antidepressants, like the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) Sertraline, can sorb to the particles in the water column and eventually accumulate in the sediment compartment. Thus, deposit-feeding organisms may be at particular risk of exposure. The polychaete Capitella teleta is widespread in estuarine organically enriched sediments, being a key deposit-feeder involved in geochemistry processes happening in sediments. Since antidepressants are neurotoxic chemicals and endocrine disruptors, the aim of this work was to test if sediment-associated Sertraline impacts burrowing- and feeding behavior as well as reproduction capability in Capitella teleta in a chronic exposure set-up, which could better mimic what happens in the environment. 7 days old juveniles were selected and exposed to different concentrations of Sertraline for an entire generation until the mature stage was reached. This work was able to show that some concentrations of Sertraline altered growth and the time of first reproduction in Capitella teleta juveniles, potentially disrupting the population’s capability of survival. Acknowledgments: This Ph.D. position is part of the CHRONIC project “Chronic exposure scenarios driving environmental risks of Chemicals”, which is an Innovative Training Network (ITN) funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA).

Keywords: antidepressants, Capitella teleta, chronic exposure, endocrine disruption, sublethal endpoints, neurotoxicity

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Authors: Maryam Jaberi, Siavosh Shayan, Mojtaba Yamani

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Habble-Rud River basin (HR), up to 100 km length, one of the largest watersheds which drain into deserts to the north of Central Iran (Dasht-e Kavir). This stream is oblique with the NE-SW trending, flow in the southern range of central Alborz Mountains and the northern border of Central Iran. The end of the ~17 km suddenly change direction and with the southern trending to have a morphology which meanders passes through the Alborz Mountain ridge and flows into the Garmsar plain where it forms one of the largest alluvial fans in Iran, i.e. the vast Garmsar alluvial fan with an area of 476 km2. This study was carried out through morphometric analyses, longitudinal river profiles, and study of geomorpholic evidence such as fluvial terraces, gypsum-salt domes, seismic data, and satellite images. This study aimed to investigate the changes in the pattern of rivers in the southern part of the HR river basin. The southern part of HR river basin located at the southern foothills of the Central Alborz is characterized the thrust faults (Sorkheh-Kalut and Garmsar faults), folds,diapirs and arid climate. The activity of more than 10 salt domes that belong to the Oligocene-Miocene period has considerably influenced the pattern of streams in this region. Dissolution of these domes has not only reduced the quality of water and soil resources, but also has led to the formation of badlands and gullies.Our results indicated that the pattern of rivers in the southern part of HR river basin was influenced by discharge of the HR river in Quaternary, geological structure, subsidence of Central Iran and vertical uplift of Alborz mountain. These agents caused the formation meanders in the southern part of the HR River and evaluation of the seasonal rivers like Shoor-Darre and Garmabsar.

Keywords: geomorphologic evaluation, rivers pattern, Habble-Rud River basin, seasonal rivers

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Authors: Emery Coppola Jr., Marwan Sadat, Il Kim, Diane Trube, Richard Kurisko

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Contamination sites like landfills often pose significant risks to receptors like surface water bodies. Surface water bodies are often a source of recreation, including fishing and swimming, which not only enhances their value but also serves as a direct exposure pathway to humans, increasing their need for protection from water quality degradation. In this paper, a case study presents the potential effects of leachate-impacted groundwater from a large closed sanitary landfill on the surface water quality of the nearby Raritan River, situated in New Jersey. The study, performed over a two year period, included in-depth field evaluation of both the groundwater and surface water systems, and was supplemented by computer modeling. The analysis required delineation of a representative average daily groundwater discharge from the Landfill shoreline into the large, highly tidal Raritan River, with a corresponding estimate of daily mass loading of potential contaminants of concern. The average daily groundwater discharge into the river was estimated from a high-resolution water level study and a 24-hour constant-rate aquifer pumping test. The significant tidal effects induced on groundwater levels during the aquifer pumping test were filtered out using an advanced algorithm, from which aquifer parameter values were estimated using conventional curve match techniques. The estimated hydraulic conductivity values obtained from individual observation wells closely agree with tidally-derived values for the same wells. Numerous models were developed and used to simulate groundwater contaminant transport and surface water quality impacts. MODFLOW with MT3DMS was used to simulate the transport of potential contaminants of concern from the down-gradient edge of the Landfill to the Raritan River shoreline. A surface water dispersion model based upon a bathymetric and flow study of the river was used to simulate the contaminant concentrations over space within the river. The modeling results helped demonstrate that because of natural attenuation, the Landfill does not have a measurable impact on the river, which was confirmed by an extensive surface water quality study.

Keywords: groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling, groundwater/surface water interaction, landfill leachate, surface water quality modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Oshienemen Albert

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Human’s activities could be pointed as the root cause of almost all environmental damages/ disasters as we contribute to the activities that are currently damaging the ozone layers (global warming), unusual environmental changes and extreme weather conditions (climate change) in recent times. Nigeria just as every other disaster-prone nation is faced with different types of disasters and environmental calamities, starting from terrorist displacement disasters, flood, drought and oil spill hazards. Oil spillage as an environmental disaster has great consequences not just on the environment but on human health, economy and the entire populace that might be involved, which deem necessary to look into the root causes of the incidents and how it can be curtailed. The different incidents of oil spillages and other oil production consequent on the environment is alarming in the Nigerian context and cannot be overemphasized without a critical investigation and synthesis. This paper investigates the root causes of environmental pollution induced by oil spill hazards from petroleum activities within Niger Delta communities of effects and detailed the potential solutions to reduce the causal factors and reoccurrence of the incidents. This study adopts a desk-based approach, interviews with key members of communities which consist of chiefs, youth leaders, and key women within the high environmental damaged communities. Also, Interviews were conducted with environmental expertise representatives from the oil and gas sectors and representatives from oil spill-related agency. Data were analyzed using thematic techniques. The study shows different influencing factors of sabotage and vandalism of oil facilities as such; marginalization, deprivation of resources utility and resource derivation principles were identified as major contributors to vandalism and sabotage act. The study proposed potential strategies to curtail the root causes of sabotage and vandalism as the major causes of environmental devastations in Nigeria.

Keywords: environment, oil spill hazards, Niger delta, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Sumaira Zafar, Arjumand Zaidi

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During past few years, several floods have adversely affected the areas along lower Indus River. Besides other climate related anomalies, rapidly increasing urbanization and blockage of natural drains due to siltation or encroachments are two other critical causes that may be responsible for these disasters. Due to flat topography of river Indus plains and blockage of natural waterways, drainage of storm water takes time adversely affecting the crop health and soil properties of the area. Government of Sindh is taking a keen interest in revival of natural drainage network in the province and has initiated this work under Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority. In this paper, geospatial techniques are used to analyze landuse/land-cover changes of Larkana district over the past three decades (1980-present) and their impact on natural drainage system. Satellite derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic sheets (recent and 1950) are used to delineate natural drainage pattern of the district. The urban landuse map developed in this study is further overlaid on drainage line layer to identify the critical areas where the natural floodwater flows are being inhibited by urbanization. Rainfall and flow data are utilized to identify areas of heavy flow, whereas, satellite data including Landsat 7 and Google Earth are used to map previous floods extent and landuse/cover of the study area. Alternatives to natural drainage systems are also suggested wherever possible. The output maps of natural drainage pattern can be used to develop a decision support system for urban planners, Sindh development authorities and flood mitigation and management agencies.

Keywords: geospatial techniques, satellite data, natural drainage, flood, urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 501

Authors: Michael Zhang, Nicholas Marriage, Valerie Astle, Marie-Louise Ratican, Jonathan Ash, Haddijatou Hughes

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Objective: Young infants are often brought to the Emergency Department (ED) with a variety of complaints, some of them are non-specific and present as a diagnostic challenge to the attending clinician. Whilst invasive investigations such as blood tests and lumbar puncture are necessary in some cases to exclude serious infections, some basic clinical tools in additional to thorough clinical history can be useful to assess the risks of serious conditions in these young infants. This study aimed to examine the utilization of one of clinical tools in this regard. Methods: This retrospective observational study examined the medical records of infants under 6 months presenting to a mixed urban ED between January 2013 and December 2014. The infants deemed to have non-specific complaints or diagnoses by the emergency clinicians were selected for analysis. The ones with clear systemic diagnoses were excluded. Among all relevant clinical information and investigation results, utilization of Standard Paediatric Observation Chart (SPOC) was particularly scrutinized in these medical records. This specific chart was developed by the expert clinicians in local health department. It categorizes important clinical signs into some color-coded zones as a visual cue for serious implication of some abnormalities. An infant is regarded as SPOC positive when fulfills 1 red zone or 2 yellow zones criteria, and the attending clinician would be prompted to investigate and treat for potential serious conditions accordingly. Results: Eight hundred and thirty-five infants met the inclusion criteria for this project. The ones admitted to the hospital for further management were more likely to have SPOC positive criteria than the discharged infants (Odds ratio: 12.26, 95% CI: 8.04 – 18.69). Similarly, Sepsis alert criteria on SPOC were positive in a higher percentage of patients with serious infections (56.52%) in comparison to those with mild conditions (15.89%) (p < 0.001). The SPOC sepsis criteria had a sensitivity of 56.5% (95% CI: 47.0% - 65.7%) and a moderate specificity of 84.1% (95% CI: 80.8% - 87.0%) to identify serious infections. Applying to this infant population, with a 17.4% prevalence of serious infection, the positive predictive value was only 42.8% (95% CI: 36.9% - 49.0%). However, the negative predictive value was high at 90.2% (95% CI: 88.1% - 91.9%). Conclusions: Standard Paediatric Observation Chart has been applied as a useful clinical tool in the clinical practice to help identify and manage young sick infants in ED effectively.

Keywords: clinical tool, infants, non-specific complaints, Standard Paediatric Observation Chart

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Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 557