Search results for: relative dielectric constant

Authors: G. Dadashova, A. Bakhshaliyev

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Aim: Determine gender differences in the etiology and clinical outcomes, as well as in the remodeling of the left ventricle (LV) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), suffering from arterial hypertension (AH) and coronary heart disease (CHD). Material and methods: The study included 112 patients of both sexes; aged 45 to 60 years with postinfarction cardiosclerosis had functional class (FC) heart failure II-IV of NYHA which were examined on the basis of Azerbaijan Scientific Research Institute of Cardiology. The patients were divided into 2 groups: 1st c. 60 males, mean age 54,8 ± 3,3 years, and 2nd gr 52 women, mean age 55,8 ± 3,1 years. To assess cardiac hemodynamic all patients underwent echocardiography (B-M-modes) using ‘Vivid 3’. Thus on the basis of indicators such as the index of the relative thickness of the left ventricle wall and the index of left ventricular mass (LVMI) was identified the architectonic model of the left ventricle. Results: According to our research leading cause of heart failure in women is 50.5% of cases of hypertension, ischemic heart disease 23.7% (with 79.5% of the cases developed in patients with chronic heart failure who did not have a history of myocardial infarction). While in men is the undisputed leader of CHD, forming 78.3% of CHF (80.3% in men with CHF occurred after myocardial infarction). According to our research in women more often than men CHF develops a type of diastolic dysfunction (DD, and left ventricular ejection fraction remained unchanged. Since DD occurs in men at 65,8% vs. 76,4% of women when p < 0,05. In the group of women was more common prognostic neblagopryatnye remodeling - eccentric hypertrophy of the left ventricle: 68% vs. 54.5% among men (p < 0,05), concentric left ventricular hypertrophy: 21% in women vs 19,1% (p > 0,05 ). Conclusions: Patients with heart failure are a number of gender-specific: the prevalence of hypertension in women, and coronary heart disease in men. While in women with heart failure often recorded diastolic dysfunction and characterized by the development of prognostically unfavorable remodeling types: eccentric and concentric LV hypertrophy.

Keywords: chronic heart failure, arterial hypertension, remodeling, diastolic dysfunction, men, women, ischemic heart disease

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Authors: Shanawaz Patil, Mohamed Haneef, K. S. Narayanaswamy

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In the recent years, aluminum metal matrix composites were most widely used, which are finding wide applications in various field such as automobile, aerospace defense etc., due to their outstanding mechanical properties like low density, light weight, exceptional high levels of strength, stiffness, wear resistance, high temperature resistance, low coefficient of thermal expansion and good formability. In the present work, an effort is made to study the effect of heat treatment on mechanical properties of aluminum 7075 alloy reinforced with constant weight percentage of naturally occurring mineral beryl and varying weight percentage of graphene. The hybrid composites are developed with 0.5 wt. %, 1wt.%, 1.5 wt.% and 2 wt.% of graphene and 6 wt.% of beryl  by stir casting liquid metallurgy route. The cast specimens of unreinforced aluminum alloy and hybrid composite samples were prepared for heat treatment process and subjected to solutionizing treatment (T6) at a temperature of 490±5 ^oC for 8 hours in a muffle furnace followed by quenching in boiling water. The microstructure analysis of as cast and heat treated hybrid composite specimens are examined by scanning electron microscope (SEM). The tensile test and hardness test of unreinforced aluminum alloy and hybrid composites are examined. The wear behavior is examined by pin-on disc apparatus. The results of as cast specimens and heat treated specimens were compared. The heat treated Al7075-Beryl-Graphene hybrid composite had better properties and significantly improved the ultimate tensile strength, hardness and reduced wear loss when compared to aluminum alloy and  as cast hybrid composites.

Keywords: beryl, graphene, heat treatment, mechanical properties

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Authors: Catherine Mangan, Beth Anderson

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There has been a significant drive to use online or hybrid learning in Higher Education (HE) over recent years. HEs with a virtual presence offer their communities a range of benefits, including the potential for greater inclusivity, diversity, and collaboration; more flexible learning packages; and more engaging, dynamic content. Institutions can also experience significant challenges when seeking to extend learning spaces in this way, as can learners themselves. For example, staff members’ and learners’ digital literacy varies (as do their perceptions of technologies in use), and there can be confusion about optimal approaches to implementation. Furthermore, the speed with which HE institutions have needed to shift to fully online or hybrid models, owing to the COVID19 pandemic, has highlighted the significant barriers to successful implementation. HE environments have been shown to predict a range of organisational, academic, and experiential outcomes, both positive and negative. Much research has focused on the social aspect of virtual platforms, as well as the nature and effectiveness of the technologies themselves. There remains, however, a relative paucity of synthesised knowledge on the psychology of learners’ relationships with their institutions; specifically, how individual difference and interpersonal factors predict students’ ability and willingness to engage with novel virtual learning spaces. Accordingly, extending learning spaces remains challenging for institutions, and wholly remote courses, in particular, can experience high attrition rates. Focusing on the last five years, this pragmatic review summarises evidence from the psychological and pedagogical literature. In particular, the review highlights the importance of addressing the psychological and relational complexities of students’ shift from offline to online engagement. In doing so, it identifies considerations for HE institutions looking to deliver in this way.

Keywords: higher education, individual differences, interpersonal relationships, online learning, virtual environment

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Authors: Ahmad Ammar, Umar Khan Khattak, Muhammad Majid

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Empirically based lumped hydrologic models have an extensive track record of use for various watershed managements and flood related studies. This study focuses on the impacts of LULC change for 10 year period on the discharge in watershed using lumped model HEC-HMS. The Indus above Tarbela region acts as a source of the main flood events in the middle and lower portions of Indus because of the amount of rainfall and topographic setting of the region. The discharge pattern of the region is influenced by the LULC associated with it. In this study the Landsat TM images were used to do LULC analysis of the watershed. Satellite daily precipitation TRMM data was used as input rainfall. The input variables for model building in HEC-HMS were then calculated based on the GIS data collected and pre-processed in HEC-GeoHMS. SCS-CN was used as transform model, SCS unit hydrograph method was used as loss model and Muskingum was used as routing model. For discharge simulation years 2000 and 2010 were taken. HEC-HMS was calibrated for the year 2000 and then validated for 2010.The performance of the model was assessed through calibration and validation process and resulted R2=0.92 during calibration and validation. Relative Bias for the years 2000 was -9% and for2010 was -14%. The result shows that in 10 years the impact of LULC change on discharge has been negligible in the study area overall. One reason is that, the proportion of built-up area in the watershed, which is the main causative factor of change in discharge, is less than 1% of the total area. However, locally, the impact of development was found significant in built up area of Mansehra city. The analysis was done on Mansehra city sub-watershed with an area of about 16 km2 and has more than 13% built up area in 2010. The results showed that with an increase of 40% built-up area in the city from 2000 to 2010 the discharge values increased about 33 percent, indicating the impact of LULC change on discharge value.

Keywords: LULC change, HEC-HMS, Indus Above Tarbela, SCS-CN

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Authors: András Farkas, István Molnár, Jan Vrána, Veronika Burešová, Petr Cápal, András Cseh, Márta Molnár-Láng, Jaroslav Doležel

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Species of Aegilops played a central role in the evolution of wheat and are sources of traits related to yield quality and tolerance against biotic and abiotic stresses. These wild genes and alleles are desirable to use in crop improvement programs via introgressive hybridization. However, the success of chromosome mediated gene transfer to wheat are hampered by the pour knowledge on the genome structure of Aegilops relative to wheat and by the low number of cost-effective molecular markers specific for Aegilops chromosomes. The COS markers specific for genes conserved throughout evolution in both sequence and copy number between Triticeae/Aegilops taxa and define orthologous regions, thus enabling the comparison of regions on the chromosomes of related species. The present study compared individual chromosomes of Aegilops umbellulata (UU), Ae. comosa (MM), Ae. speltoides (SS) and Ae. caudata (CC) purified by flourescent labelling with oligonucleotid SSR repeats and biparametric flow cytometry with wheat by identifying orthologous chromosomal regions by COS markers. The linear order of bin-mapped COS markers along the wheat D chromosomes was identified by the use of chromosome-specific sequence data and virtual gene order. Syntenic regions of wheat identifying genome rearrangements differentiating the U, M, S or C genomes from the D genome of wheat were detected. The conserved orthologous set markers assigned to Aegilops chromosomes promise to accelerate gene introgression by facilitating the identification of alien chromatin. The syntenic relationships between the Aegilops species and wheat will facilitate the targeted development of new markers specific for U, M, S and C genomic regions and will contribute to the understanding of molecular processes related to the evolution of Aegilops.

Keywords: Aegilops, cos-markers, flow-sorting, wheat

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Authors: Jonathan Rodriguez, Dominga Guerrero, Surupa Shaw

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Automobiles are modeled in various forms, and they interact with air when in motion. Aerodynamics is the study of such interactions where solid bodies affect the way air moves around them. The shape of solid bodies can impact the ease at which they move against the flow of air; due to which any additional freightage, or loads, impact its aerodynamics. It is important to transport people and cargo safely. Despite the various safety measures, there are a large number of vehicle-related accidents. This study precisely explores the effects an automobile experiences, with added cargo and covers. The addition of these items changes the original vehicle shape and the approved design for safe driving. This paper showcases the effects of the changed vehicle shape and design via experimental testing conducted on a physical 1:27 scale and CAD model of an F-150 pickup truck, the most common pickup truck in the United States, with differently shaped loads and weight traveling at a constant speed. The additional freightage produces unwanted drag or lift resulting in lower fuel efficiencies and unsafe driving conditions. This study employs an adjustable external shell on the F-150 pickup truck to create a controlled aerodynamic geometry to combat the detrimental effects of additional freightage. The results utilize colored powder [ which acts as a visual medium for the interaction of air with the vehicle], to highlight the impact of the additional freight on the automobile’s external shell. This will be done along with simulation models using Altair CFD software of twelve cases regarding the effects of an added load onto an F-150 pickup truck. This paper is an attempt toward standardizing the geometric design of the external shell, given the uniqueness of every load and its placement on the vehicle; while providing real-time data to be compared to simulation results from the existing literature.

Keywords: aerodynamics, CFD, freightage, pickup cover

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Authors: Valbona Sota, Efigjeni Kongjika

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Wild almond is a woody species, which is difficult to propagate either generatively by seed or by vegetative methods (grafting or cuttings) and also considered as Endangered (EN) in Albania based on IUCN criteria. As a wild relative of cultivated fruit trees, this species represents a source of genetic variability and can be very important in breeding programs and cultivation. For this reason, it would be of interest to use an effective method of in vitro mid-term conservation, which involves strategies to slow plant growth through physicochemical alterations of in vitro growth conditions. Multiplication of wild almond was carried out using zygotic embryos, as primary explants, with the purpose to develop a successful propagation protocol. Results showed that zygotic embryos can proliferate through direct or indirect organogenesis. During subculture, stage was obtained a great number of new plantlets identical to mother plants derived from the zygotic embryos. All in vitro plantlets obtained from subcultures underwent in vitro conservation by minimal growth in low temperature (4ºC) and darkness. The efficiency of this technique was evaluated for 3, 6, and 10 months of conservation period. Maintenance in these conditions reduced micro cuttings growth. Survival and regeneration rates for each period were evaluated and resulted that the maximal time of conservation without subculture on 4ºC was 10 months, but survival and regeneration rates were significantly reduced, specifically 15.6% and 7.6%. An optimal period of conservation in these conditions can be considered the 5-6 months storage, which can lead to 60-50% of survival and regeneration rates. This protocol may be beneficial for mass propagation, mid-term conservation, and for genetic manipulation of wild almond.

Keywords: micropropagation, minimal growth, storage, wild almond

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Authors: Ira Joseph

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The LNG paradox addresses the issue of how the most expensive form of gas supply, which is LNG, will grow in an end user market where demand is most competitive, which is power generation. In this case, LNG demand growth is under siege from two entirely different directions. At one end is price; it will be extremely difficult for gas to replace coal in Asia due to the low price of coal and the age of the generation plants. Asia's coal fleet, on average, is less than two decades old and will need significant financial incentives to retire before its state lifespan. While gas would cut emissions in half relative to coal, it would also more than double the price of the fuel source for power generation, which puts it in a precarious position. In most countries in Asia other than China, this cost increase, particularly from imports, is simply not realistic when it is also necessary to focus on economic growth and social welfare. On the other end, renewables are growing at an exponential rate for three reasons. One is that prices are dropping. Two is that policy incentives are driving deployment, and three is that China is forcing renewables infrastructure into the market to take a political seat at the global energy table with Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia. Plus, more renewables will lower import growth of oil and gas in China, if not end it altogether. Renewables are the predator at the gate of gas demand in power generation and in every year that passes, renewables cut into demand growth projections for gas; in particular, the type of gas that is most expensive, which is LNG. Gas does have a role in the future, particularly within a domestic market. Once it crosses borders in the form of LNG or even pipeline gas, it quickly becomes a premium fuel and must be marketed and used this way. Our research shows that gas will be able to compete with batteries as an intermittency and storage tool and does offer a method to harmonize with renewables as part of the energy transition. As a baseload fuel, however, the role of gas, particularly, will be limited by cost once it needs to cross a border. Gas converted into blue or green hydrogen or ammonia is also an option for storage depending on the location. While this role is much reduced from the primary baseload role that gas once aspired to land, it still offers a credible option for decades to come.

Keywords: natural gas, LNG, demand, price, intermittency, storage, renewables

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Authors: Anjana R. Menon, Anjana Bhasi

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Development of highways and railways play crucial role in a nation’s economic growth. While rigid concrete pavements are durable with high load bearing characteristics, growing economies mostly rely on flexible pavements which are easier in construction and more economical. The strength of flexible pavement is based on the strength of subgrade and load distribution characteristics of intermediate granular layers. In this scenario, to simultaneously meet economy and strength criteria, it is imperative to strengthen and stabilize the load transferring layers, namely subbase and base. Geosynthetic reinforcement in planar and cellular forms have been proven effective in improving soil stiffness and providing a stable load transfer platform. Studies have proven the relative superiority of cellular form-geocells over planar geosynthetic forms like geogrid, owing to the additional confinement of infill material and pocket effect arising from vertical deformation. Hence, the present study investigates the efficiency of geocells over single/multiple layer geogrid reinforcements by a series of three-dimensional model analyses of a flexible pavement section under a standard repetitive wheel load. The stress transfer mechanism and deformation profiles under various reinforcement configurations are also studied. Geocell reinforcement is observed to take up a higher proportion of stress caused by the traffic loads compared to single and double-layer geogrid reinforcements. The efficiency of single geogrid reinforcement reduces with an increase in embedment depth. The contribution of lower geogrid is insignificant in the case of the double-geogrid reinforced system.

Keywords: Geocell, Geogrid, Flexible Pavement, Repetitive Wheel Load, Numerical Analysis

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Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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Authors: P. Mukhopadhyay, N. C. Dey

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Occupational health hazard is a very common term in every emerging country. Along with the unorganized sector, most organized sectors including government industries are suffering from this affliction. In addition to workload, the seasonal changes also have some impacts on working environment. With this focus in mind, one hundred male industrial workers, who are directly involved to the task of Periodic Overhauling (POH) in a fabricating workshop in the public domain are selected for this research work. They have been studied during work periods throughout different seasons in a year. For each and every season, the participants working heart rate (WHR) is measured and compared with the standards given by different national and internationally recognized agencies i.e., World Health Organization (WHO) and American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) etc. The different environmental parameters i.e. dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), globe temperature (GT), natural wet bulb temperature (NWB), relative humidity (RH), wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), air velocity (AV), effective temperature (ET) are recorded throughout the seasons to critically observe the effect of seasonal changes on the WHR of the workers. The effect of changes in environment to the WHR of the workers is very much surprising. It is found that the percentages of workers who belong to the ‘very heavy’ workload category are 83.33%, 66.66% and 16.66% in the summer, rainy and winter seasons, respectively. Ongoing undertaking of this type of job profile forces the worker towards occupational disorders causing absenteeism. This occurrence results in lower production rates, and on the other hand, costs due to medical claims also weaken the industry’s economic condition. In this circumstance, the authors are trying to focus on some remedial measures from the ergonomic angle by proposing a new work/ rest regimen and introducing engineering controls along with management controls which may help the worker, and consequently, the management also.

Keywords: workload, working heart rate, occupational health hazard, industrial worker

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Authors: Sodamade Abiodun, Adeboye Olubunmi Omolara

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Problems associated with protein malnutrition are still prevalent in third-world countries, leading to the constant search for plants that can serve as nutrients and medicinal purposes. Huckleberry is one of the plants that has been proven useful locally in the treatment of numerous ailments and diseases. A fresh sample of Huckleberry was collected from a vegetable garden situated near the Erelu dam of the Emmanuel Alayande College of Education campus, Oyo. The sample was authenticated at the forestry research institute of Nigeria (FRIN) Ibadan. The leaves of the plant were plucked and processed for leaf protein concentrates before proximate composition; mineral analysis phytochemical and antimicrobial properties of the leaf protein concentrates were determined using a standard method of analysis. The results of proximate constituents showed; moisture content; 9.89±0.051g/100g, Ash; 3.23±0.12g/100g, crude fat; 3.96±0.11g/100g and 61.27±0.56g/100g of Nitrogen free extractive results of the mineral analysis showed that the sample contains Mg; 0.081±0.00mg/100g, Ca; 42.30±0.05mg/100g, Na; 27.57±0.09mg/100g, K; 6.81±0.01mg/100g, P; 8.90±0.03mg/100g Fe; 0.51±0.00mg/100g, Zn; 0.021±0.00mg/100g, Cd; 0.04±0.04mg/100g, Pb; 0.002±0.00mg/100g, Cr; 0.041±0.00mg/100g while cadmium was not detected in the sample. The result of phytochemical analysis of leaf protein concentrates of the Huckleberry showed the presence of Alkaloid, Saponin, Flavonoid, Tanin, Coumarin, steroid, Terpenoid, cordial glycosides, Glycosides, Quinones, Anthocyanin, phytosterols, and phenols. Ethanolic extracts of the Huckleberry leaf protein concentrates showed that it contains bioactive compounds that are capable of eradicating some tested microorganisms; Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pyogenes, Streptococcus faecalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebisidlae pneumonia and Proteus merabilis. The results of the analysis of leaf protein concentrates of Huckleberry showed that the sample contains high nutrient and mineral constituents and phytochemical compounds that could make the sample useful for medicinal activities.

Keywords: huckleberry, mentha piperita, phytochemical, leaf protein concentrates, nutritional characteristics

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Authors: Nitin Kumar

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Purpose: The current research work focuses mainly on evolving a delivery system for ginseng extract (GE), which in turn will ameliorate the neuroprotective potential by means of enhancing the ginsenoside (Rb1) bio-availability (BA). For more noteworthy enhancement in oral bioavailability (OBA) along with pharmacological properties, the drug carriers’ performance can be strengthened by utilizing phytosomes-loaded microspheres (PM) delivery system. Methods: For preparing the disparate phytosome complexes (F1, F2, and F3), an aqueous extract of ginseng roots (GR) along with phospholipids were reacted in disparate ratio. Considering the outcomes, F3 formulation (spray-dried) was chosen for preparing the phytosomes powder (PP), PM, and extract microspheres (EM). PM was made by means of loading of F3 into Gum Arabic (GA) in addition to maltodextrin polymer mixture, whereas EM was prepared by means of the addition of extract directly into the same polymer mixture. For investigating the neuroprotective effect (NPE) in addition to their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties, PP, PM, and EM formulations were assessed. Results: F3 formulation gave enhanced entrapment efficiency (EE) (i.e., 50.61%) along with good homogeneity of spherical shaped particle size (PS) (42.58 ± 1.4 nm) with least polydispersity index (PDI) (i.e., 0.193 ± 0.01). The sustained release (up to 24 h) of ginsenoside Rb1 (GRb1) is revealed by the dissolution study of PM. A significantly (p < 0.05) greater anti-oxidant (AO) potential of PM can well be perceived as of the diminution in the lipid peroxidase level in addition to the rise in the glutathione superoxide dismutase (SOD) in addition to catalase levels. It also showed a greater neuroprotective potential exhibiting significant (p < 0.05) augmentation in the nociceptive threshold together with the diminution in damage to nerves. A noteworthy enhancement in the relative BA (157.94%) of GRb1 through the PM formulation can well be seen in the PK studies. Conclusion: It is exhibited that the PM system is an optimistic and feasible strategy to enhance the delivery of GE for the effectual treatment of neuropathic pain.

Keywords: ginseng, neuropathic, phytosome, pain

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Authors: Charles Horace Ampong

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Non-linear models have been found to be useful in modeling the elasticity (measure of degree of responsiveness) of a dependent variable with respect to a set of independent variables ceteris paribus. This constant elasticity principle was applied to the dependent variable (Compressive Strength of Concrete in MPa) which was found to be non-linearly related to the independent variable (Water-Cement ratio in kg/m3) for given Ages of Concrete in days (3, 7, 28) at different levels of admixtures Superplasticizer (in kg/m3), Blast Furnace Slag (in kg/m3) and Fly Ash (in kg/m3). The levels of the admixtures were categorized as: S1=Some Plasticizer added & S0=No Plasticizer added; B1=some Blast Furnace Slag added & B0=No Blast Furnace Slag added; F1=Some Fly Ash added & F0=No Fly Ash added. The number of observations (samples) used for the research was one-hundred and thirty-two (132) in all. For Superplasticizer, it was found that Compressive Strength of Concrete was more elastic with regards to Water-Cement ratio at S1 level than at S0 level for the given ages of concrete 3, 7and 28 days. For Blast Furnace Slag, Compressive Strength with regards to Water-Cement ratio was more elastic at B0 level than at B1 level for concrete ages 3, 7 and 28 days. For Fly Ash, Compressive Strength with regards to Water-Cement ratio was more elastic at B0 level than at B1 level for Ages 3, 7 and 28 days. The research also tested for different combinations of the levels of Superplasticizer, Blast Furnace Slag and Fly Ash. It was found that Compressive Strength elasticity with regards to Water-Cement ratio was lowest (Elasticity=-1.746) with a combination of S0, B0 and F0 for concrete age of 3 days. This was followed by Elasticity of -1.611 with a combination of S0, B0 and F0 for a concrete of age 7 days. Next, the highest was an Elasticity of -1.414 with combination of S0, B0 and F0 for a concrete age of 28 days. Based on preceding outcomes, three (3) non-linear model equations for predicting the output elasticity of Compressive Strength of Concrete (in %) or the value of Compressive Strength of Concrete (in MPa) with regards to Water to Cement was formulated. The model equations were based on the three different ages of concrete namely 3, 7 and 28 days under investigation. The three models showed that higher elasticity translates into higher compressive strength. And the models revealed a trend of increasing concrete strength from 3 to 28 days for a given amount of water to cement ratio. Using the models, an increasing modulus of elasticity from 3 to 28 days was deduced.

Keywords: concrete, compressive strength, elasticity, water-cement

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Authors: Sauradipta Ganguly, Akhato Sumi, Sanjeet Kumar Hom, Ajan T. Lotha

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Populus deltoides is a hardwood used predominantly for the manufacturing of plywood, matchsticks, and paper in India and hence has a higher economical significance. Wood-decaying fungi cause serious damage to Populus deltoides products, as the wood itself is perishable and vulnerable to decaying agents, decreasing their aesthetical value which in return results in significant monetary loss for the wood industries concerned. The aim of the study was to determine the antifungal activity of Cedrus deodara oil against three primary wood-decaying fungi namely white-rot fungi (Trametes versicolor), brown-rot fungi (Oligoporus placentus) and soft-rot fungi (Xylaria acuminata) on Populus deltoides samples under optimum laboratory conditions. The susceptibility of Populus deltoides samples on the fungal attack and the ability of deodar oil to control colonization of the wood rotting fungi on the samples were assessed. Three concentrations of deodar oil were considered for the study as treating solutions, i.e., 4%, 5%, and 6%. The Populus deltoides samples were treated with treating solutions, and the ability of the same to prevent a fungal attack on the samples were assessed using accelerated test in the laboratory at Biochemical Oxygen Demand incubator at temperature (25 ± 2°C) and relative humidity 70 ± 4%. Efficacy test and statistical analysis of deodar oil against Trametes versicolor, Oligoporus placentus, and Xylariaacuminataon P. deltoides samples exhibited light, minor and negligible mycelia growth at 4 %, 5% and 6% concentrations of deodar oil, respectively. Whereas, moderate to heavy attack was observed on the surface of the control samples. Statistical analysis further established that the treatments were statistically significant and had significantly inhibited fungal growth of all the three fungus spp by almost 3 to 5 times.

Keywords: populus deltoides, Trametes versicolor, Oligoporus placentus, Xylaria acuminata, Deodar oil, treatment

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Authors: Jean-Jacques Randrianarimanana, Nassim Sebaibi, Mohamed Boutouil

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In order to solve problems associated with stormwater runoff in urban areas and their effects on natural and artificial water bodies, the integration of new technical solutions to the rainwater drainage becomes even more essential. Permeable pavement systems are one of the most widely used techniques. This paper presents a laboratory analysis of stormwater runoff hydraulic and pollutant removal performance of permeable pavement system using pervious pavements based on seashell products. The laboratory prototype is a square column of 25 cm of side and consists of the surface in pervious concrete, a bedding of 3 cm in height, a geotextile and a subbase layer of 50 cm in height. A series of constant simulated rain events using semi-synthetic runoff which varied in intensity and duration were carried out. The initial vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity of the entire pervious pavement system was 0.25 cm/s (148 L/m²/min). The hydraulic functioning was influenced by both the inlet flow rate value and the test duration. The total water losses including evaporation ranged between 9% to 20% for all hydraulic experiments. The temporal and vertical variability of the pollutant removal efficiency (PRE) of the system were studied for total suspended solids (TSS). The results showed that the PRE along the vertical profile was influenced by the size of the suspended solids, and the pervious paver has the highest capacity to trap pollutant than the other porous layers of the permeable pavement system after the geotextile. The TSS removal efficiency was about 80% for the entire system. The first-flush effect of TSS was observed, but it appeared only at the beginning (2 to 6 min) of the experiments. It has been shown that the PPS can capture first-flush. The project in which this study is integrated aims to contribute to both the valorization of shellfish waste and the sustainable management of rainwater.

Keywords: hydraulic, pervious concrete, pollutant removal efficiency, seashell by-products, stormwater runoff

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Authors: Hermalina Sinay, Estri L. Arumingtyas

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The research objective was to determine the expression level of dehydration responsive element binding/DREB gene of local corn cultivars from Kisar Island Maluku. The study design was a randomized block design with single factor consist of six local corn cultivars obtained from farmers in Kisar Island and one reference varieties wich has been released by the government as a drought-tolerant varieties and obtained from Cereal Crops Research Institute (ICERI) Maros South Sulawesi. Leaf samples were taken is the second leaf after the flag leaf at the 65 days after planting. Isolation of total RNA from leaf samples was carried out according to the protocols of the R & A-BlueTM Total RNA Extraction Kit and was used as a template for cDNA synthesis. The making of cDNA from total RNA was carried out according to the protocol of One-Step Reverse Transcriptase PCR Premix Kit. Real Time-PCR was performed on cDNA from reverse transcription followed the procedures of Real MODTM Green Real-Time PCR Master Mix Kit. Data obtained from the real time-PCR results were analyzed using relative quantification method based on the critical point / Cycle Threshold (CP / CT). The results of gene expression analysis of DREB gene showed that the expression level of the gene was highest obtained at Deep Yellow local corn cultivar, and the lowest one was obtained at the Rubby Brown Cob cultivar. It can be concluded that the expression level of DREB gene of Deep Yellow local corn cultivar was highest than other local corn cultivars and Srikandi variety as a reference variety.

Keywords: expression, level, DREB gene, local corn cultivars, Kisar Island, Maluku

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Authors: B. Adini, M. Oren

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Introduction: Communicable diseases and pandemics pose a growing threat to the well-being of the global population. A vital component of protecting the public health is the creation and sustenance of a continuous preparedness for such hazards. A joint Israeli-German task force was deployed in order to develop an advanced tool for self-evaluation of emergency preparedness for variable types of biological threats. Methods: Based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with leading content experts, an evaluation tool was developed based on quantitative and qualitative parameters and indicators. A modified Delphi process was used to achieve consensus among over 225 experts from both Germany and Israel concerning items to be included in the evaluation tool. Validity and applicability of the tool for medical institutions was examined in a series of simulation and field exercises. Results: Over 115 German and Israeli experts reviewed and examined the proposed parameters as part of the modified Delphi cycles. A consensus of over 75% of experts was attained for 183 out of 188 items. The relative importance of each parameter was rated as part of the Delphi process, in order to define its impact on the overall emergency preparedness. The parameters were integrated in computerized web-based software that enables to calculate scores of emergency preparedness for biological events. Conclusions: The parameters developed in the joint German-Israeli project serve as benchmarks that delineate actions to be implemented in order to create and maintain an ongoing preparedness for biological events. The computerized evaluation tool enables to continuously monitor the level of readiness and thus strengths and gaps can be identified and corrected appropriately. Adoption of such a tool is recommended as an integral component of quality assurance of public health and safety.

Keywords: biological events, emergency preparedness, bioterrorism, natural biological events

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Authors: Niharika Keot, Manabendra Sarma

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A thorough investigation of Ln3+ complexes with more than one inner-sphere water molecule is crucial for designing high relaxivity contrast agents (CAs) used in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This study accomplished a comparative stability analysis of two hexadentate (H3cbda and H3dpaa) and two heptadentate (H4peada and H3tpaa) ligands with Ln3+ ions. The higher stability of the hexadentate H3cbda and heptadentate H4peada ligands has been confirmed by the binding affinity and Gibbs free energy analysis in aqueous solution. In addition, energy decomposition analysis (EDA) reveals the higher binding affinity of the peada4− ligand than the cbda3− ligand towards Ln3+ ions due to the higher charge density of the peada4− ligand. Moreover, a mechanistic overview of water exchange kinetics has been carried out based on the strength of the metal–water bond. The strength of the metal–water bond follows the trend Gd–O47 (w) > Gd–O39 (w) > Gd–O36 (w) in the case of the tris-aquated [Gd(cbda)(H2O)3] and Gd–O43 (w) > Gd–O40 (w) for the bis-aquated [Gd(peada)(H2O)2]− complex, which was confirmed by bond length, electron density (ρ), and electron localization function (ELF) at the corresponding bond critical points. Our analysis also predicts that the activation energy barrier decreases with the decrease in bond strength; hence kex increases. The 17O and 1H hyperfine coupling constant values of all the coordinated water molecules were different, calculated by using the second-order Douglas–Kroll–Hess (DKH2) approach. Furthermore, the ionic nature of the bonding in the metal–ligand (M–L) bond was confirmed by the Quantum Theory of Atoms-In-Molecules (QTAIM) and ELF along with energy decomposition analysis (EDA). We hope that the results can be used as a basis for the design of highly efficient Gd(III)-based high relaxivity MRI contrast agents for medical applications.

Keywords: MRI contrast agents, lanthanide chemistry, thermodynamic stability, water exchange kinetics

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Authors: Akanksha Lohmore, Devanshu Arya, Preeti Kapur

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Rarely does the human mind look at the positive fallout of highly negative events. Positive psychology attempts to emphasize on the strengths and positives for human well-being. The present study examines the underpinning socio-cognitive factors of the protest movements regarding the gang rape case of December 16th, 2012 through the lens of positive psychology. A gamut of negative emotions came to the forum globally: of anger, shame, hatred, violence, death penalty for the perpetrators, amongst other equally strong. In relation to this incident, a number of questions can be raised. Can such a heinous crime have some positive inputs for contemporary society? What is it that has held people to protests for long even when they see faded lines of success in view? This paper explains the constant feeding of protests and continuation of movements by the robust model of Collective Hope by Snyder, a phenomenon unexplored by social psychologists. In this paper, mixed method approach was undertaken. Results confirmed the interaction of various socio-psychological factors that imitated the Snyders model of collective hope. Emergence of major themes was: Sense of Agency, Sense of Worthiness, Social Sharing and Common Grievances and Hope of Collective Efficacy. Statistical analysis (correlation and regression) showed significant relationship between media usage and occurrence of these themes among participants. Media-communication processes and educational theories for development of citizenship behavior can find implications from these results. Theory development as indicated by theorists working in the area of Social Psychology of Protests can be furthered by the direction of research.

Keywords: agency, collective, hope, positive psychology, protest, social media

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Authors: Taimaz Larimian, Negin Sadeghi

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Very little is known about the impacts of urban security on the level of social sustainability within the cities of developing countries. Urban security is still struggling to find its position in the social sustainability agenda, despite the significant role of safety and security on different aspects of peoples’ lives. This paper argues that urban safety and security should be better integrated within the social sustainability framework. With this aim, this study investigates the hypothesized relationship between social sustainability and Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) approach at the neighborhood scale. This study proposes a model of key influential dimensions of CPTED analyzed into localized factors and sub-factors. These factors are then prioritized using pairwise comparison logic and fuzzy group Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in order to determine the relative importance of each factor on achieving social sustainability. The proposed model then investigates social sustainability in six case study neighborhoods of Isfahan city based on residents’ perceptions of safety within their neighborhood. Mixed method of data collection is used by using a self-administered questionnaire to explore the residents’ perceptions of social sustainability in their area of residency followed by an on-site observation to measure the CPTED construct. In all, 150 respondents from selected neighborhoods were involved in this research. The model indicates that CPTED approach has a significant direct influence on increasing social sustainability in neighborhood scale. According to the findings, among different dimensions of CPTED, ‘activity support’ and ‘image/ management’ have the most influence on people’s feeling of safety within studied areas. This model represents a useful designing tool in achieving urban safety and security during the development of more socially sustainable and user-friendly urban areas.

Keywords: crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED), developing countries, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), social sustainability

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Authors: Itsuo Yokoyama, Rikako Kikuti, Miti Sekikawa, Tosinori Asai, Sarai Tsuyoshi

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Introduction: Vascular access for hemodialysis therapy is often difficult, even for experienced medical personnel. Ultrasound guided needle placement have been performed occasionally but is not always helpful in certain cases with complicated vascular anatomy. Obtaining precise anatomical knowledge of the vascular structure is important to prevent access-related complications. With augmented reality (AR) device such as AR glasses, the virtual vascular structure is shown superimposed on the actual patient vessels, thus enabling the operator to maneuver catheter placement easily with free both hands. We herein report our method of AR guided vascular access method in dialysis treatment Methods: Three dimensional (3D) object of the arm with arteriovenous fistula is computer graphically created with 3D software from the data obtained by computer tomography, ultrasound echogram, and image scanner. The 3D vascular object thus created is viewed on the screen of the AR digital display device (such as AR glass or iPad). The picture of the vascular anatomical structure becomes visible, which is superimposed over the real patient’s arm, thereby the needle insertion be performed under the guidance of AR visualization with ease. By this method, technical difficulty in catheter placement for dialysis can be lessened and performed safely. Considerations: Virtual reality technology has been applied in various fields and medical use is not an exception. Yet AR devices have not been widely used among medical professions. Visualization of the virtual vascular object can be achieved by creation of accurate three dimensional object with the help of computer graphical technique. Although our experience is limited, this method is applicable with relative easiness and our accumulating evidence has suggested that our method of vascular access with the use of AR can be promising.

Keywords: abdominal-aorta, calcification, extraskeletal, dialysis, computer graphics, 3DCG, CT, calcium, phosphorus

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Authors: A. Soni, D. R. Mishra, D. K. Koul

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α-Al2O3:C has been reported to have deeper traps at 600°C and 900°C respectively. These traps have been reported to accessed at relatively earlier temperatures (122 and 322 °C respectively) using thermally assisted OSL (TA-OSL). In this work, the dose response α-Al2O3:C was studied in the dose range of 10Gy to 10kGy for its application in food irradiation in low ( upto 1kGy) and medium(1 to 10kGy) dose range. The TOL (Thermo-optically stimulated luminescence) measurements were carried out on RisØ TL/OSL, TL-DA-15 system having a blue light-emitting diodes (λ=470 ±30nm) stimulation source with power level set at the 90% of the maximum stimulation intensity for the blue LEDs (40 mW/cm2). The observations were carried on commercial α-Al2O3:C phosphor. The TOL experiments were carried out with number of active channel (300) and inactive channel (1). Using these settings, the sample is subjected to linear thermal heating and constant optical stimulation. The detection filter used in all observations was a Hoya U-340 (Ip ~ 340 nm, FWHM ~ 80 nm). Irradiation of the samples was carried out using a 90Sr/90Y β-source housed in the system. A heating rate of 2 °C/s was preferred in TL measurements so as to reduce the temperature lag between the heater plate and the samples. To study the dose response of deep traps of α-Al2O3:C, samples were irradiated with various dose ranging from 10 Gy to 10 kGy. For each set of dose, three samples were irradiated. In order to record the TA-OSL, initially TL was recorded up to a temperature of 400°C, to deplete the signal due to 185°C main dosimetry TL peak in α-Al2O3:C, which is also associated with the basic OSL traps. After taking TL readout, the sample was subsequently subjected to TOL measurement. As a result, two well-defined TA-OSL peaks at 121°C and at 232°C occur in time as well as temperature domain which are different from the main dosimetric TL peak which occurs at ~ 185°C. The linearity of the integrated TOL signal has been measured as a function of absorbed dose and found to be linear upto 10kGy. Thus, it can be used for low and intermediate dose range of for its application in food irradiation. The deep energy level defects of α-Al2O3:C phosphor can be accessed using TOL section of RisØ reader system.

Keywords: α-Al2O3:C, deep traps, food irradiation, TA-OSL

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Authors: G. Quiroga-Cubides, M. Cruz, E. Grijalba, J. Sanabria, A. Ceballos, L. García, M. Gómez

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Beauveria sp. has been used as an entomopathogenic microorganism for biological control of various plant pests such as whitefly, thrips, aphids and chrysomelidaes (including Cerotoma tingomariana species), which affect soybean crops in Colombia´s Altillanura region. Therefore, a biopesticide prototype based on B. bassiana strain Bv060 was developed at Corpoica laboratories. For the production of B. bassiana conidia, a baseline fermentation was performed at laboratory in a solid medium using broken rice as a substrate, a temperature of 25±2 °C and a relative humidity of 60±10%. The experimental design was completely randomized, with a three-time repetition. These culture conditions resulted in an average conidial concentration of 1.48x10^10 conidia/g, a yield of 13.07 g/kg dry substrate and a productivity of 8.83x10^7 conidia/g*h were achieved. Consequently, the objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of the particle size reduction of rice (<1 mm) and the addition of a complex nitrogen source over conidia production and efficiency parameters in a solid-state fermentation, in a completely randomized experiment with a three-time repetition. For this aim, baseline fermentation conditions of temperature and humidity were employed in a semisolid culture medium with powdered rice (10%) and a complex nitrogen source (8%). As a result, it was possible to increase conidial concentration until 9.87x10^10 conidia/g, yield to 87.07 g/g dry substrate and productivity to 3.43x10^8 conidia/g*h. This suggested that conidial concentration and yield in semisolid fermentation increased almost 7 times compared with baseline while the productivity increased 4 times. Finally, the designed system for semisolid-state fermentation allowed to achieve an easy conidia recovery, which means reduction in time and costs of the production process.

Keywords: Beauveria bassiana, biopesticide, solid state fermentation, semisolid medium culture

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Authors: Chanda Burrage

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The past half-century has revealed massive structural, geographic, and technological changes in livestock production. The move, for instance, toward expanding export markets, massive feedlots for the fattening of cattle and improved veterinary standards is a global trend in food animal agribusiness and is apparent in both developed and developing regions. In the Horn of Africa, various breeds of cattle that previously were not considered in economic terms are now treated as commodities and branded for numerous export markets. Formerly a culturally significant exchange good within the subsistence pastoral livelihoods, cattle are now identified as a key economic resource and fully connected to global markets. This study incorporates an ethnographic-commodity chain approach to examine critical issues surrounding regional trade, harmonization of standards, import & export legislation, the role of the private sector, and infrastructure development relative to the Boran cattle breed and Borana pastoralists. The specific sites assessed include the cattle production region of Moyale in southern Ethiopia, feedlots and export abattoirs in Adama, Ethiopia, and quarantines and ports in Djibouti and Somaliland. The goal is to evaluate innovation and modernization outcomes and narratives around Boran cattle production and development and the associate livelihood changes for cattle producers in southern Ethiopia and how the smallholder pastoralists are coping with the multitude of global changes. Inevitably, the inherent pressures related to such changes alter, and may even promote the reconfiguration of identity, while inadvertently contribute to the capacity of smallholder cattle producers to act independently and make their own free choices in sustainability. It is through these processes that local Borana groups may appropriate, bypass, or put to new use available and innovative material resources.

Keywords: globalization, global change, commodification, pastoralism, vulnerability, adaptive capacity

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Authors: Jiahui Song

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The use of electric fields with high intensity (~ 100kV/cm or higher) and ultra short pulse durations (nanosecond range) has been a recent development. Most of the studies of electroporation have ignored possible thermal effects because of the small duration of the applied voltage pulses. However, it has been predicted membrane temperature gradients ranging from 0.2×109 to 109 K/m. This research focuses on thermal effects that drive for electroporative enhancements, even though the actual temperature values might not have changed appreciably from their equilibrium levels. The dynamics of pore formation with the application of an externally applied electric field is studied on the basis of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using the GROMACS package. MD simulations of a lipid layer with constant electric field strength of 0.5 V/nm at 25 °C and 47 °C are implemented to simulate the appropriate thermal effects. The GROMACS provides the force fields for the lipid membranes, which is taken to comprise of dipalmitoyl-phosphatidyl-choline (DPPC) molecules. The water model mimicks the aqueous environment surrounding the membrane. Velocities of water and membrane molecules are generated randomly at each simulation run according to a Maxwellian distribution. The high background electric field is typically used in MD simulations to probe electroporation. It serves as an accelerated test of the pore formation process since low electric fields would take inordinately long simulation time. MD simulation shows no pore is formed in a 1-ns snapshot for a DPPC membrane set at a temperature of 25°C after a 0.5 V/nm electric field is applied. A nano-sized pore is clearly seen in a 0.75-ns snapshot on the same geometry, but with the membrane surfaces kept at temperatures of 47°C. And the pore increases at 1 ns. The MD simulation results suggest the possibility that the increase in temperature can result in different degrees of electrically stimulated bio-effects. The results points to the role of thermal effects in facilitating and accelerating the electroporation process.

Keywords: high-intensity, ultra-short, electroporation, thermal effects, molecular dynamics

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Authors: Aschalew Cherie Workneh, K. S. Hari Prasad, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha

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Due to the increase in water scarcity, the crop water stress index (CWSI) is receiving significant attention these days, especially in arid and semiarid regions, for quantifying water stress and effective irrigation scheduling. Nowadays, machine learning techniques such as neural networks are being widely used to determine CWSI. In the present study, the performance of two artificial neural networks, namely, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and Feed Forward-Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks (FF-BP-ANN), are compared while determining the CWSI of rice crop. Irrigation field experiments with varying degrees of irrigation were conducted at the irrigation field laboratory of the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, during the growing season of the rice crop. The CWSI of rice was computed empirically by measuring key meteorological variables (relative humidity, air temperature, wind speed, and canopy temperature) and crop parameters (crop height and root depth). The empirically computed CWSI was compared with SOM and FF-BP-ANN predicted CWSI. The upper and lower CWSI baselines are computed using multiple regression analysis. The regression analysis showed that the lower CWSI baseline for rice is a function of crop height (h), air vapor pressure deficit (AVPD), and wind speed (u), whereas the upper CWSI baseline is a function of crop height (h) and wind speed (u). The performance of SOM and FF-BP-ANN were compared by computing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), index of agreement (d), root mean squared error (RMSE), and coefficient of correlation (R²). It is found that FF-BP-ANN performs better than SOM while predicting the CWSI of rice crops.

Keywords: artificial neural networks; crop water stress index; canopy temperature, prediction capability

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Authors: Hanene Akrout, Ines Elaissaoui, Sabrina Grassini, Daniele Fulginiti, Latifa Bousselmi

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The main objective of this work is to investigate the efficiency of depollution power related to PbO₂ layer deposited onto a stainless steel (SS) substrate with SiOx as interlayer. The elaborated electrode was used as anode for anodic oxidation of wastewater containing Amaranth dye, as recalcitrant organic pollutant model. SiOx interlayer was performed using Plasma Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition ‘PECVD’ in plasma fed with argon, oxygen, and tetraethoxysilane (TEOS, Si precursor) in different ratios, onto the SS substrate. PbO₂ layer was produced by pulsed electrodeposition on SS/SiOx. The morphological of different surfaces are depicted with Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM) and the composition of the lead oxide layer was investigated by X-Ray Diffractometry (XRD). The results showed that the SiOx interlayer with more rich oxygen content improved better the nucleation of β-PbO₂ form. Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) measurements undertaken on different interfaces (at optimized conditions) revealed a decrease of Rfilm while CPE film increases for SiOx interlayer, characterized by a more inorganic nature and deposited in a plasma fed by higher O2-to-TEOS ratios. Quantitative determinations of the Amaranth dye degradation rate were performed in terms of colour and COD removals, reaching a 95% and an 80% respectively removal at pH = 2 in 300 min. Results proved the improvement of the degradation wastewater containing the amaranth dye. During the electrolysis, the Amaranth dye solution was sampled at 30 min intervals and analyzed by ‘High-performance Liquid Chromatography’ HPLC. The gradual degradation of the Amaranth dye confirmed by the decrease in UV absorption using the SS/SiOx(20:20:1)/PbO₂ anode, the reaction exhibited an apparent first-order kinetic for electrolysis time of 5 hours, with an initial rate constant of about 0.02 min⁻¹.

Keywords: electrochemical treatment, PbO₂ anodes, COD removal, plasma

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Authors: Yu-Ching Liu

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Background: Family numbers usually take responsibility for taking care of their elderly relatives, especially parents. Caring for a patient with chronic diseases is a stressful experience, which makes carers suffer physical and mental health stress, difficulties maintaining family relationships and issues in participating in the labor market, which may lower their quality of life (QoL). The issue of providing care to relatives with chronic illness has been widely explored in Taiwan, but most studies focus on the need for full-time caregivers. Objective: The main goal of this study was to examine the topic of working carers involved in the decision-making process of LTC services and to explore what affects working carers considering when they choose the care services for their disabled, elderly relatives. Method: A total of 7 working caregivers were enrolled in this study. A face-to-face and semi-structured in-depth qualitative interview study were conducted to explore the caregivers' perspectives. Results: Working carers have a positive experience of using LTC service because it allows them to kill two birds with one stone, continue employment, and care for an elderly disabled relative. However, working carers have still been struggling to find friendly community-based LTC services. There were no longer available community services that could be used with the illness condition of patients getting worse. As such, patients have to be cared for at home, which might increase the caregiver burden of carers. Conclusion: Working family caregivers suffer from heavy physical and psychological burdens as they not only have to maintain their employment but care for elderly disabled relatives; however, the current support provided is insufficient. The design of services should consider working carers' employment situation and need rather than the only caring situation of patients at home.

Keywords: family caregiver, Long-term care, work-life balance, decision-making

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Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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