Search results for: rainfall magnitude and frequency
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5214

Search results for: rainfall magnitude and frequency

4914 Parametric Study on Dynamic Analysis of Composite Laminated Plate

Authors: Junaid Kameran Ahmed

Abstract:

A laminated plate composite of graphite/epoxy has been analyzed dynamically in the present work by using a quadratic element (8-node diso-parametric), and by depending on 1st order shear deformation theory, every node in this element has 6-degrees of freedom (displacement in x, y, and z axis and twist about x, y, and z axis). The dynamic analysis in the present work covered parametric studies on a composite laminated plate (square plate) to determine its effect on the natural frequency of the plate. The parametric study is represented by set of changes (plate thickness, number of layers, support conditions, layer orientation), and the plates have been simulated by using ANSYS package 12. The boundary conditions considered in this study, at all four edges of the plate, are simply supported and fixed boundary condition. The results obtained from ANSYS program show that the natural frequency for both fixed and simply supported increases with increasing the number of layers, but this increase in the natural frequency for the first five modes will be neglected after 10 layers. And it is observed that the natural frequency of a composite laminated plate will change with the change of ply orientation, the natural frequency increases and it will be at maximum with angle 45 of ply for simply supported laminated plate, and maximum natural frequency will be with cross-ply (0/90) for fixed laminated composite plate. It is also observed that the natural frequency increase is approximately doubled when the thickness is doubled.

Keywords: laminated plate, orthotropic plate, square plate, natural frequency (free vibration), composite (graphite / epoxy)

Procedia PDF Downloads 320
4913 Time Series Modelling and Prediction of River Runoff: Case Study of Karkheh River, Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R2) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: time series modelling, ARIMA model, river runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method

Procedia PDF Downloads 316
4912 Prediction of the Performance of a Bar-Type Piezoelectric Vibration Actuator Depending on the Frequency Using an Equivalent Circuit Analysis

Authors: J. H. Kim, J. H. Kwon, J. S. Park, K. J. Lim

Abstract:

This paper has investigated a technique that predicts the performance of a bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency. This paper has been proposed an equivalent circuit that can be easily analyzed for the bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator. In the dynamic analysis, rigidity and resonance frequency, which are important mechanical elements, were derived using the basic beam theory. In the equivalent circuit analysis, the displacement and bandwidth of the piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency were predicted. Also, for the reliability of the derived equations, the predicted performance depending on the shape change was compared with the result of a finite element analysis program.

Keywords: actuator, piezoelectric, performance, unimorph

Procedia PDF Downloads 447
4911 Some Aspects of Water Resources Management in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions, Case Study of Western Iran

Authors: Amir Hamzeh Haghiabi

Abstract:

Water resource management is of global significance as it plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of all nations. On account of the fact that Iran is situated in a highly pressurized belt in the world, precipitation is limited, so that the average annual precipitation in the country is about 250 mm, only about one third to one quarter of the world average for rainfall. Karkheh basin is located in the semiarid and arid regions of Western Iran, an area with severe water scarcity. 70 % of rainfall is directly evaporated. The potential annual evaporation of the southern and northern regions is 3,600 mm 1,800 mm, respectively. In this paper, Some aspects of water resources management for this region, the specifications of the Karkheh reservoir dam & hydroelectric power plant as the biggest dam in history of Iran with total volume of reservoir 7.3 Bm3 are illustrated. Also the situation of water availability in the basin, surface and groundwater potential are considered.

Keywords: Iran, water availability, water resources, Zagros

Procedia PDF Downloads 624
4910 Multivariate Dependent Frequency-Severity Modeling of Insurance Claims: A Vine Copula Approach

Authors: Islem Kedidi, Rihab Bedoui Bensalem, Faysal Manssouri

Abstract:

In traditional models of insurance data, the number and size of claims are assumed to be independent. Relaxing the independence assumption, this article explores the Vine copula to model dependence structure between multivariate frequency and average severity of insurance claim. To illustrate this approach, we use the Wisconsin local government property insurance fund which offers several insurance protections for motor vehicles, property and contractor’s equipment claims. Results show that the C-vine copula can better characterize the multivariate dependence structure between frequency and severity. Furthermore, we find significant dependencies especially between frequency and average severity among different coverage types.

Keywords: dependency modeling, government insurance, insurance claims, vine copula

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
4909 Plasma Properties Effect on Fluorescent Tube Plasma Antenna Performance

Authors: A. N. Dagang, E. I. Ismail, Z. Zakaria

Abstract:

This paper presents the analysis on the performance of monopole antenna with fluorescent tubes. In this research, the simulation and experimental approach is conducted. The fluorescent tube with different length and size is designed using Computer Simulation Technology (CST) software and the characteristics of antenna parameter are simulated throughout the software. CST was used to simulate antenna parameters such as return loss, resonant frequency, gain and directivity. Vector Network Analyzer (VNA) was used to measure the return loss of plasma antenna in order to validate the simulation results. In the simulation and experiment, the supply frequency is set starting from 1 GHz to 10 GHz. The results show that the return loss of plasma antenna changes when size of fluorescent tubes is varied, correspond to the different plasma properties. It shows that different values of plasma properties such as plasma frequency and collision frequency gives difference result of return loss, gain and directivity. For the gain, the values range from 2.14 dB to 2.36 dB. The return loss of plasma antenna offers higher value range from -22.187 dB to -32.903 dB. The higher the values of plasma frequency and collision frequency, the higher return loss can be obtained. The values obtained are comparative to the conventional type of metal antenna.

Keywords: plasma antenna, fluorescent tube, CST, plasma parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 366
4908 Rain Gauges Network Optimization in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

Authors: Mohd Khairul Bazli Mohd Aziz, Fadhilah Yusof, Zulkifli Yusop, Zalina Mohd Daud, Mohammad Afif Kasno

Abstract:

Recent developed rainfall network design techniques have been discussed and compared by many researchers worldwide due to the demand of acquiring higher levels of accuracy from collected data. In many studies, rain-gauge networks are designed to provide good estimation for areal rainfall and for flood modelling and prediction. In a certain study, even using lumped models for flood forecasting, a proper gauge network can significantly improve the results. Therefore existing rainfall network in Johor must be optimized and redesigned in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The well-known geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) that is combined with simulated annealing was used as an algorithm of optimization in this study to obtain the optimal number and locations of the rain gauges. Rain gauge network structure is not only dependent on the station density; station location also plays an important role in determining whether information is acquired accurately. The existing network of 84 rain gauges in Johor is optimized and redesigned by using rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, temperature and wind speed data during monsoon season (November – February) for the period of 1975 – 2008. Three different semivariogram models which are Spherical, Gaussian and Exponential were used and their performances were also compared in this study. Cross validation technique was applied to compute the errors and the result showed that exponential model is the best semivariogram. It was found that the proposed method was satisfied by a network of 64 rain gauges with the minimum estimated variance and 20 of the existing ones were removed and relocated. An existing network may consist of redundant stations that may make little or no contribution to the network performance for providing quality data. Therefore, two different cases were considered in this study. The first case considered the removed stations that were optimally relocated into new locations to investigate their influence in the calculated estimated variance and the second case explored the possibility to relocate all 84 existing stations into new locations to determine the optimal position. The relocations of the stations in both cases have shown that the new optimal locations have managed to reduce the estimated variance and it has proven that locations played an important role in determining the optimal network.

Keywords: geostatistics, simulated annealing, semivariogram, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
4907 Effects of Climate Change on Hydraulic Design Methods of Railway Infrastructures

Authors: Chiara Cesali

Abstract:

The effects of climate change are increasingly evident: increases in temperature (i.e. global warming), greater frequency of extreme weather events, i.e. storms, floods, which often affect transport infrastructures. Large-scale climatological models with long-term horizons (up to 2100) show the possibility of significant increases in precipitation in the future, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from IPCC. Consequently, the insufficiency of existing hydraulic works (i.e. bridges, culverts, drainage systems) may be more frequent, or those currently being designed may become insufficient in the future. Thus, the hydraulic design methods of transport infrastructure must begin to take into account the influence of climate change. To this purpose, criteria for applying to the hydraulic design of a railway infrastructure some of the approaches currently available for determining design rainfall intensity and/or peak discharge flow on the basis of possible climate change scenarios are defined and proposed in the paper. Some application cases are also described.

Keywords: climate change, hydraulic design, precipitation, railway

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
4906 Review of Dielectric Permittivity Measurement Techniques

Authors: Ahmad H. Abdelgwad, Galal E. Nadim, Tarek M. Said, Amr M. Gody

Abstract:

The prime objective of this manuscript is to provide intensive review of the techniques used for permittivity measurements. The measurement techniques, relevant for any desired application, rely on the nature of the measured dielectric material, both electrically and physically, the degree of accuracy required, and the frequency of interest. Regardless of the way that distinctive sorts of instruments can be utilized, measuring devices that provide reliable determinations of the required electrical properties including the obscure material in the frequency range of interest can be considered. The challenge in making precise dielectric property or permittivity measurements is in designing of the material specimen holder for those measurements (RF and MW frequency ranges) and adequately modeling the circuit for reliable computation of the permittivity from the electrical measurements. If the RF circuit parameters such as the impedance or admittance are estimated appropriately at a certain frequency, the material’s permittivity at this frequency can be estimated by the equations which relate the way in which the dielectric properties of the material affect on the parameters of the circuit.

Keywords: dielectric permittivity, free space measurement, waveguide techniques, coaxial probe, cavity resonator

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4905 Screening Post-Menopausal Women for Osteoporosis by Complex Impedance Measurements of the Dominant Arm

Authors: Yekta Ülgen, Fırat Matur

Abstract:

Cole-Cole parameters of 40 post-menopausal women are compared with their DEXA bone mineral density measurements. Impedance characteristics of four extremities are compared; left and right extremities are statistically same, but lower extremities are statistically different than upper ones due to their different fat content. The correlation of Cole-Cole impedance parameters to bone mineral density (BMD) is observed to be higher for a dominant arm. With the post menopausal population, ANOVA tests of the dominant arm characteristic frequency, as a predictor for DEXA classified osteopenic and osteoporotic population around the lumbar spine, is statistically very significant. When used for total lumbar spine osteoporosis diagnosis, the area under the Receiver Operating Curve of the characteristic frequency is 0.875, suggesting that the Cole-Cole plot characteristic frequency could be a useful diagnostic parameter when integrated into standard screening methods for osteoporosis. Moreover, the characteristic frequency can be directly measured by monitoring frequency driven the angular behavior of the dominant arm without performing any complex calculation.

Keywords: bioimpedance spectroscopy, bone mineral density, osteoporosis, characteristic frequency, receiver operating curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 503
4904 Design of Wireless Readout System for Resonant Gas Sensors

Authors: S. Mohamed Rabeek, Mi Kyoung Park, M. Annamalai Arasu

Abstract:

This paper presents a design of a wireless read out system for tracking the frequency shift of the polymer coated piezoelectric micro electromechanical resonator due to gas absorption. The measure of this frequency shift indicates the percentage of a particular gas the sensor is exposed to. It is measured using an oscillator and an FPGA based frequency counter by employing the resonator as a frequency determining element in the oscillator. This system consists of a Gas Sensing Wireless Readout (GSWR) and an USB Wireless Transceiver (UWT). GSWR consists of an oscillator based on a trans-impedance sustaining amplifier, an FPGA based frequency readout, a sub 1GHz wireless transceiver and a micro controller. UWT can be plugged into the computer via USB port and function as a wireless module to transfer gas sensor data from GSWR to the computer through its USB port. GUI program running on the computer periodically polls for sensor data through UWT - GSWR wireless link, the response from GSWR is logged in a file for post processing as well as displayed on screen.

Keywords: gas sensor, GSWR, micromechanical system, UWT, volatile emissions

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4903 Low Complexity Deblocking Algorithm

Authors: Jagroop Singh Sidhu, Buta Singh

Abstract:

A low computational deblocking filter including three frequency related modes (smooth mode, intermediate mode, and non-smooth mode for low-frequency, mid-frequency, and high frequency regions, respectively) is proposed. The suggested approach requires zero additions, zero subtractions, zero multiplications (for intermediate region), no divisions (for non-smooth region) and no comparison. The suggested method thus keeps the computation lower and thus suitable for image coding systems based on blocks. Comparison of average number of operations for smooth, non-smooth, intermediate (per pixel vector for each block) using filter suggested by Chen and the proposed method filter suggests that the proposed filter keeps the computation lower and is thus suitable for fast processing algorithms.

Keywords: blocking artifacts, computational complexity, non-smooth, intermediate, smooth

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4902 Study on Roll Marks of Stainless Steel in Rolling Mill

Authors: Cai-Wan Chang-Jian, Han-Ting Tsai

Abstract:

In the processing industry of metal forming, rolling is the most used method of processing. In a cold rolling factory of stainless steel, there occurs a product defect on temper rolling process within cold rolling. It is called 'roll marks', which is a phenomenon of undesirable flatness problem. In this research, we performed a series of experimental measurements on the roll marks, and we used optical sensors to measure it and compared the vibration frequency of roll marks with the vibration frequency of key components in the skin pass mill. We found there is less correlation between the above mentioned data. Finally, we took measurement on the motor driver in rolling mill. We found that the undulation frequency of motor could match with the frequency of roll marks, and then we have confirmed that the motor’s undulation caused roll marks.

Keywords: roll mark, plane strain, rolling mill, stainless steel

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4901 A Micro-Scale of Electromechanical System Micro-Sensor Resonator Based on UNO-Microcontroller for Low Magnetic Field Detection

Authors: Waddah Abdelbagi Talha, Mohammed Abdullah Elmaleeh, John Ojur Dennis

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the simulation and implementation of a resonator micro-sensor for low magnetic field sensing based on a U-shaped cantilever and piezoresistive configuration, which works based on Lorentz force physical phenomena. The resonance frequency is an important parameter that depends upon the highest response and sensitivity through the frequency domain (frequency response) of any vibrated micro-scale of an electromechanical system (MEMS) device. And it is important to determine the direction of the detected magnetic field. The deflection of the cantilever is considered for vibrated mode with different frequencies in the range of (0 Hz to 7000 Hz); for the purpose of observing the frequency response. A simple electronic circuit-based polysilicon piezoresistors in Wheatstone's bridge configuration are used to transduce the response of the cantilever to electrical measurements at various voltages. Microcontroller-based Arduino program and PROTEUS electronic software are used to analyze the output signals from the sensor. The highest output voltage amplitude of about 4.7 mV is spotted at about 3 kHz of the frequency domain, indicating the highest sensitivity, which can be called resonant sensitivity. Based on the resonant frequency value, the mode of vibration is determined (up-down vibration), and based on that, the vector of the magnetic field is also determined.

Keywords: resonant frequency, sensitivity, Wheatstone bridge, UNO-microcontroller

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4900 A High Time Resolution Digital Pulse Width Modulator Based on Field Programmable Gate Array’s Phase Locked Loop Megafunction

Authors: Jun Wang, Tingcun Wei

Abstract:

The digital pulse width modulator (DPWM) is the crucial building block for digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, which converts the digital duty ratio signal into its analog counterpart to control the power MOSFET transistors on or off. With the increase of switching frequency of digitally-controlled DC-DC converter, the DPWM with higher time resolution is required. In this paper, a 15-bits DPWM with three-level hybrid structure is presented; the first level is composed of a7-bits counter and a comparator, the second one is a 5-bits delay line, and the third one is a 3-bits digital dither. The presented DPWM is designed and implemented using the PLL megafunction of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Arrays), and the required frequency of clock signal is 128 times of switching frequency. The simulation results show that, for the switching frequency of 2 MHz, a DPWM which has the time resolution of 15 ps is achieved using a maximum clock frequency of 256MHz. The designed DPWM in this paper is especially useful for high-frequency digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converters.

Keywords: DPWM, digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, FPGA, PLL megafunction, time resolution

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4899 Robust and Transparent Spread Spectrum Audio Watermarking

Authors: Ali Akbar Attari, Ali Asghar Beheshti Shirazi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a blind and robust audio watermarking scheme based on spread spectrum in Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) domain. Watermarks are embedded in the low-frequency coefficients, which is less audible. The key idea is dividing the audio signal into small frames, and magnitude of the 6th level of DWT approximation coefficients is modifying based upon the Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (DSSS) technique. Also, the psychoacoustic model for enhancing in imperceptibility, as well as Savitsky-Golay filter for increasing accuracy in extraction, is used. The experimental results illustrate high robustness against most common attacks, i.e. Gaussian noise addition, Low pass filter, Resampling, Requantizing, MP3 compression, without significant perceptual distortion (ODG is higher than -1). The proposed scheme has about 83 bps data payload.

Keywords: audio watermarking, spread spectrum, discrete wavelet transform, psychoacoustic, Savitsky-Golay filter

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
4898 Solutions for Large Diameter Piles Stifness Used in Offshore Wind Turbine Farms

Authors: M. H. Aissa, Amar Bouzid Dj

Abstract:

As known, many countries are now planning to build new wind farms with high capacity up to 5MW. Consequently, the size of the foundation increase. These kinds of structures are subject to fatigue damage from environmental loading mainly due to wind and waves as well as from cyclic loading imposed through the rotational frequency (1P) through mass and aerodynamic imbalances and from the blade passing frequency (3P) of the wind turbine which make them behavior dynamically very sensitive. That is why natural frequency must be determined with accuracy from the existing data of the soil and the foundation stiffness sources of uncertainties, to avoid the resonance of the system. This paper presents analytical expressions of stiffness foundation with large diameter in linear soil behavior in different soil stiffness profile. To check the accuracy of the proposed formulas, a mathematical model approach based on non-dimensional parameters is used to calculate the natural frequency taking into account the soil structure interaction (SSI) compared with the p-y method and measured frequency in the North Sea Wind farms.

Keywords: offshore wind turbines, semi analytical FE analysis, p-y curves, piles foundations

Procedia PDF Downloads 444
4897 Frequency Modulation in Vibro-Acoustic Modulation Method

Authors: D. Liu, D. M. Donskoy

Abstract:

The vibroacoustic modulation method is based on the modulation effect of high-frequency ultrasonic wave (carrier) by low-frequency vibration in the presence of various defects, primarily contact-type such as cracks, delamination, etc. The presence and severity of the defect are measured by the ratio of the spectral sidebands and the carrier in the spectrum of the modulated signal. This approach, however, does not differentiate between amplitude and frequency modulations, AM and FM, respectfully. It was experimentally shown that both modulations could be present in the spectrum, yet each modulation may be associated with different physical mechanisms. AM mechanisms are quite well understood and widely covered in the literature. This paper is a first attempt to explain the generation mechanisms of FM and its correlation with the flaw properties. Here we proposed two possible mechanisms leading to FM modulation based on nonlinear local defect resonance and dynamic acousto-elastic models.

Keywords: non-destructive testing, nonlinear acoustics, structural health monitoring, acousto-elasticity, local defect resonance

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4896 Symbolic Analysis of Input Impedance of CMOS Floating Active Inductors with Application in Fully Differential Bandpass Amplifier

Authors: Kittipong Tripetch

Abstract:

This paper proposes studies of input impedance of two types of the CMOS active inductor. It derives two input impedance formulas. The first formula is the input impedance of a grounded active inductor. The second formula is an input impedance of floating active inductor. After that, these formulas can be used to simulate magnitude and phase response of input impedance as a function of current consumption with MATLAB. Common mode rejection ratio (CMRR) of a fully differential bandpass amplifier is derived based on superposition principle. CMRR as a function of input frequency is plotted as a function of current consumption

Keywords: grounded active inductor, floating active inductor, fully differential bandpass amplifier

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4895 Absorption of Ultrashort Electromagnetic Pulses on Gold Nanospheres in Various Dielectric Media

Authors: Sergey Svita, Valeriy Astapenko

Abstract:

The study is devoted to theoretical analysis of ultrashort electromagnetic pulses (USP) absorption on gold nanospheres. Dependencies of USP energy absorption on nanospheres placed in various matrix are compared. The results of calculation of absorbed energy on gold nanospheres as a function of ultrashort electromagnetic pulse carrier frequency and number of pulse cycles of carrier frequency show strong non-linear dependence of absorbed energy on number of cycles of carrier frequency, but for relatively large number of cycles on USP carrier frequency it goes to linear dependence.

Keywords: ultrashort electromagnetic pulses, absorption, nanospheres, theoretical research

Procedia PDF Downloads 238
4894 Bit Error Rate Analysis of Multiband OFCDM UWB System in UWB Fading Channel

Authors: Sanjay M. Gulhane, Athar Ravish Khan, Umesh W. Kaware

Abstract:

Orthogonal frequency and code division multiplexing (OFCDM) has received large attention as a modulation scheme to realize high data rate transmission. Multiband (MB) Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) Ultra Wide Band (UWB) system become promising technique for high data rate due to its large number of advantage over Singleband (UWB) system, but it suffer from coherent frequency diversity problem. In this paper we have proposed MB-OFCDM UWB system, in which two-dimensional (2D) spreading (time and frequency domain spreading), has been introduced, combining OFDM with 2D spreading, proposed system can provide frequency diversity. This paper presents the basic structure and main functions of the MB-OFCDM system, and evaluates the bit error rate BER performance of MB-OFDM and MB-OFCDM system under UWB indoor multi-path channel model. It is observe that BER curve of MB-OFCDM UWB improve its performance by 2dB as compare to MB-OFDM UWB system.

Keywords: MB-OFDM UWB system, MB-OFCDM UWB system, UWB IEEE channel model, BER

Procedia PDF Downloads 522
4893 Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Mapping of Malaria in Thailand

Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

Abstract:

This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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4892 Forecasting Nokoué Lake Water Levels Using Long Short-Term Memory Network

Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

Abstract:

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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4891 Diurnal Circle of Rainfall and Convective Properties over West and Central Africa

Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue

Abstract:

The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.

Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes

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4890 When Change Is the Only Constant: The Impact of Change Frequency and Diversity on Change Appraisal

Authors: Danika Pieters

Abstract:

Due to changing societal and economic demands, organizational change has become increasingly prevalent in work life. While a long time change research has focused on the effects of single discrete change events on different employee outcomes such as job satisfaction and organizational commitment, a nascent research stream has begun to look into the potential cumulative effects of change in the context of continuous intense reforms. This case study of a large Belgian public organization aims to add to this growing literature by examining how the frequency and diversity of past changes impact employees’ appraisals of a newly introduced change. Twelve hundred survey results were analyzed using standard ordinary least squares regression. Results showed a correlation between high past change frequency and diversity and a negative appraisal of the new change. Implications for practitioners and future research are discussed.

Keywords: change frequency, change diversity, organizational changes, change appraisal, change evaluation

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4889 Frequency Offset Estimation Schemes Based on ML for OFDM Systems in Non-Gaussian Noise Environments

Authors: Keunhong Chae, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

In this paper, frequency offset (FO) estimation schemes robust to the non-Gaussian noise environments are proposed for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. First, a maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation scheme in non-Gaussian noise environments is proposed, and then, the complexity of the ML estimation scheme is reduced by employing a reduced set of candidate values. In numerical results, it is demonstrated that the proposed schemes provide a significant performance improvement over the conventional estimation scheme in non-Gaussian noise environments while maintaining the performance similar to the estimation performance in Gaussian noise environments.

Keywords: frequency offset estimation, maximum-likelihood, non-Gaussian noise environment, OFDM, training symbol

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4888 Enhancing Power System Resilience: An Adaptive Under-Frequency Load Shedding Scheme Incorporating PV Generation and Fast Charging Stations

Authors: Sami M. Alshareef

Abstract:

In the rapidly evolving energy landscape, the integration of renewable energy sources and the electrification of transportation are essential steps toward achieving sustainability goals. However, these advancements introduce new challenges, particularly in maintaining frequency stability due to variable photovoltaic (PV) generation and the growing demand for fast charging stations. The variability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to weather conditions can disrupt the balance between generation and load, resulting in frequency deviations. To ensure the stability of power systems, it is imperative to develop effective under frequency load-shedding schemes. This research proposal presents an adaptive under-frequency load shedding scheme based on the power swing equation, designed explicitly for the IEEE-9 Bus Test System, that includes PV generation and fast charging stations. This research aims to address these challenges by developing an advanced scheme that dynamically disconnects fast charging stations based on power imbalances. The scheme prioritizes the disconnection of stations near affected areas to expedite system frequency stabilization. To achieve these goals, the research project will leverage the power swing equation, a widely recognized model for analyzing system dynamics during under-frequency events. By utilizing this equation, the proposed scheme will adaptively adjust the load-shedding process in real-time to maintain frequency stability and prevent power blackouts. The research findings will support the transition towards sustainable energy systems by ensuring a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply while enhancing the resilience and stability of power systems during under-frequency events.

Keywords: load shedding, fast charging stations, pv generation, power system resilience

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4887 Analyzing the Climate Change Impact and Farmer's Adaptability Strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Sonia

Abstract:

The agriculture sector is deemed more vulnerable to climate change as its variation can directly affect the crop’s productivity, but farmers’ adaptation strategies play a vital role in climate change-agriculture relationship. Therefore, this research has been undertaken to assess the Climate Change impact on wheat productivity and farmers’ adaptability strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The panel dataset was analyzed to gauge the impact of changing climate variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on wheat productivity from 1985 to 2015. Amid the study period, the fixed effect estimates confirmed an inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall on the wheat yield. The impact of temperature is observed to be detrimental as compared to the rainfall, causing 0.07 units reduction in the production of wheat with 1C upsurge in temperature. On the flip side, humidity revealed a positive association with the wheat productivity by confirming that high humidity could be beneficial to the production of the crop over time. Thus, this study ensures significant nexus between agricultural production and climatic parameters. However, the farming community in the underlying study area has limited knowledge about the adaptation strategies to lessen the detrimental impact of changing climate on crop yield. It is recommended that farmers should be well equipped with training and advanced agricultural management practices under the realm of climate change. Moreover, innovative technologies pertinent to the agriculture system should be encouraged to handle the challenges arising due to variations in climate factors.

Keywords: climate change, fixed effect model, panel data, wheat productivity

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4886 Estimation of the Effectiveness of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi as Flood Detention Pond at UTHM Campus

Authors: Noor Aliza Binti Ahmad, Azra Munirah Mat Daud, Sabariah Musa, Mohamad Azhar MK

Abstract:

Flooding is a common natural disaster in Malaysia triggered by heavy rainfall. Urbanization that increases the construction of paved areas, subsequently raise surface runoff and reduce time of concentration. It increases flood magnitude and so that leads to greater flood problems as what has happened at Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) area in December 2006 and earlier 2007. Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi were constructed as recreation ponds and have also functioned as flood ponds. Unfortunately, the flood problem still occurs persistently. Thus, the effectiveness of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi in reducing the flood problems need to be investigated and the causes of flood events at UTHM Campus need to be evaluated. The results from this study show that the conditions of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi are effective in reducing the flood water levels. It also can be concluded that increasing water level in both lakes in UTHM Campus are significantly influenced by presence of the grass and rubbish. During dry condition, the flow rates with three different days are 59.38m3/s, 60.71m3/s and 59.08m3/s and while for wet condition in two different days are 89.59 m3/s and 86.61m3/s. In conclusion, this system should be improved to prevent future flooding either widened or reduced drainage floor, and also perform maintenance on the plants that live around the lake.

Keywords: drainage system, flood detention, lakes, storm water

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4885 Analysis of Rainfall Hazard in North East of Algeria

Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

Abstract:

The design of sewerage systems is directly related to rainfall, which has a highly random character. Showers are usually described by three characteristics: intensity, volume and duration. Several studies considered only in two of the three models. The objective of our work is to perform an analysis of the impact of three variables on put in charge of sewerage system, responsible for misbehavior, origin of urban flooding. 30 events were considered events for the longest, most rushed and most intense period which runs from 1986 -2001. We built the IDF curves and heavy projects double symmetrical triangles associated with this selection. A simulation of the operation, with the model canoe, sewage from the city of Annaba (Algeria) in the three rain solicitation project, double triangles associated with events considered. It appears that the sewage of the city of Annaba, in terms of charging, is much more sensitive to rain most precipitous, and the more intense causing loadings and last the longest. Further analysis of all the rain and the field measurements are underway to confirm the test simulations.

Keywords: intensity, volume, duration, sewerage, design, simulation

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