Search results for: peak demand
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4529

Search results for: peak demand

4229 Financial Analysis of Feasibility for a Heat Utilization System Using Rice Straw Pellets: Heating Energy Demand and the Collection and Storage Method in Nanporo, Japan

Authors: K.Ishii, T. Furuichi, A. Fujiyama, S. Hariya

Abstract:

Rice straw pellets are a promising fuel as a renewable energy source. Financial analysis is needed to make a utilization system using rise straw pellets financially feasible, considering all regional conditions including stakeholders related to the collection and storage, production, transportation and heat utilization. We conducted the financial analysis of feasibility for a heat utilization system using rice straw pellets which has been developed for the first time in Nanporo, Hokkaido, Japan. Especially, we attempted to clarify the effect of factors required for the system to be financial feasibility, such as the heating energy demand and collection and storage method of rice straw. The financial feasibility was found to improve when increasing the heating energy demand and collecting wheat straw in August separately from collection of rice straw in November because the costs of storing rice straw and producing pellets were reduced. However, the system remained financially unfeasible. This study proposed a contractor program funded by a subsidy from Nanporo local government where a contracted company, instead of farmers, collects and transports rice straw in order to ensure the financial feasibility of the system, contributing to job creation in the region.

Keywords: rice straw, pellets, heating energy demand, collection, storage

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4228 Performance of Armchair Graphene Nanoribbon Resonant Tunneling Diode under Uniaxial Strain

Authors: Milad Zoghi, M. Zahangir Kabir

Abstract:

Performance of armchair graphene nanoribbon (AGNR) resonant tunneling diodes (RTD) alter if they go under strain. This may happen due to either using stretchable substrates or real working conditions such as heat generation. Therefore, it is informative to understand how mechanical deformations such as uniaxial strain can impact the performance of AGNR RTDs. In this paper, two platforms of AGNR RTD consist of width-modified AGNR RTD and electric-field modified AGNR RTD are subjected to both compressive and tensile uniaxial strain ranging from -2% to +2%. It is found that characteristics of AGNR RTD markedly change under both compressive and tensile strain. In particular, peak to valley ratio (PVR) can be totally disappeared upon strong enough strain deformation. Numerical tight binding (TB) coupled with Non-Equilibrium Green's Function (NEGF) is derived for this study to calculate corresponding Hamiltonian matrices and transport properties.

Keywords: armchair graphene nanoribbon, resonant tunneling diode, uniaxial strain, peak to valley ratio

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4227 Research on the Public Policy of Vehicle Restriction under Traffic Control

Authors: Wang Qian, Bian Cheng Xiang

Abstract:

In recent years, with the improvement of China's urbanization level, the number of urban motor vehicles has grown rapidly. As residents' daily commuting necessities, cars cause a lot of exhaust emissions and urban traffic congestion. In the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" of China, it is proposed to strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Urban transport accounts for a high proportion of carbon emission sources. It is an important driving force for the realization of China's carbon peak strategy. Some cities have introduced and implemented the policy of "car restriction" to solve related urban problems by reducing the use of cars. This paper analyzes the implementation of the "automobile restriction" policy, evaluates the relevant effects of the automobile restriction policy, and discusses how to better optimize the "automobile restriction" policy in the process of urban governance.

Keywords: carbon emission, traffic jams, vehicle restrictions, evaluate

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4226 Assessment of Hydrogen Demand for Different Technological Pathways to Decarbonise the Aviation Sector in Germany

Authors: Manish Khanra, Shashank Prabhu

Abstract:

The decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors is currently high on the agenda in the EU and its member states, as these sectors have substantial shares in overall GHG emissions while it is facing serious challenges to decarbonize. In particular, the aviation sector accounts for 2.8% of global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. These emissions are anticipated to grow dramatically unless immediate mitigating efforts are implemented. Hydrogen and its derivatives based on renewable electricity can have a key role in the transition towards CO₂-neutral flights. The substantial shares of energy carriers in the form of drop-in fuel, direct combustion and Hydrogen-to-Electric are promising in most scenarios towards 2050. For creating appropriate policies to ramp up the production and utilisation of hydrogen commodities in the German aviation sector, a detailed analysis of the spatial distribution of supply-demand sites is essential. The objective of this research work is to assess the demand for hydrogen-based alternative fuels in the German aviation sector to achieve the perceived goal of the ‘Net Zero’ scenario by 2050. Here, the analysis of the technological pathways for the production and utilisation of these fuels in various aircraft options is conducted for reaching mitigation targets. Our method is based on data-driven bottom-up assessment, considering production and demand sites and their spatial distribution. The resulting energy demand and its spatial distribution with consideration of technology diffusion lead to a possible transition pathway of the aviation sector to meet short-term and long-term mitigation targets. Additionally, to achieve mitigation targets in this sector, costs and policy aspects are discussed, which would support decision-makers from airline industries, policymakers and the producers of energy commodities.

Keywords: the aviation sector, hard-to-abate sectors, hydrogen demand, alternative fuels, technological pathways, data-driven approach

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4225 Determinants of Pastoral Women's Demand for Credit: Evidence from Northern Kenya

Authors: Anne Gesare Timu, Megan Sheahan, Andrew Gache Mude, Rupsha Banerjee

Abstract:

Women headed households are among the most vulnerable to negative climatic shocks and are often left poorer as a result. Credit provision has been recognized as one way of alleviating rural poverty and developing poor rural households’ resilience to shocks. Much has been documented about credit demand in small-holder agriculture settings in Kenya. However, little is known about demand for credit among pastoral women. This paper analyzes the determinants of demand for credit in the pastoral regions of Marsabit District of Northern Kenya. Using a five wave balanced panel data set of 820 households, a double hurdle model is employed to analyze if shocks, financial literacy and risk aversion affect credit demand among female and male headed households differently. The results show that borrowing goods on credit and monetary credit from informal market segments are the most common sources of credit in the study area. The impact of livestock loss and financial literacy on the decision to borrow and how much to borrow vary with gender. While the paper suggests that provision of credit is particularly valuable in the aftermath of a negative shock and more so for female-headed households, it also explores alternatives to the provision of credit where credit access is a constraint. It recommends further understanding of systems and institutions which could enhance access to credit, and particularly during times of stress, to enable households in the study area in particular and Northern Kenya in general to invest, engage in meaningful development and growth, and be resilient to persistent shocks.

Keywords: female headed households, pastoralism, rural financing, double hurdle model

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4224 Predicting Shortage of Hospital Beds during COVID-19 Pandemic in United States

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

Abstract:

World-wide spread of coronavirus grows the concern about planning for the excess demand of hospital services in response to COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in the hospital services demand beyond the current capacity leads to shortage of ICU beds and ventilators in some parts of US. In this study, we forecast the required number of hospital beds and possible shortage of beds in US during COVID-19 pandemic to be used in the planning and hospitalization of new cases. In this paper, we used a data on COVID-19 deaths and patients’ hospitalization besides the data on hospital capacities and utilization in US from publicly available sources and national government websites. we used a novel ensemble modelling of deep learning networks, based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to predict the shortage in hospital beds. The results showed that our proposed approach can predict the excess hospital beds demand very well and this can be helpful in developing strategies and plans to mitigate this gap.

Keywords: COVID-19, deep learning, ensembled models, hospital capacity planning

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4223 A Case Study on the Drivers of Household Water Consumption for Different Socio-Economic Classes in Selected Communities of Metro Manila, Philippines

Authors: Maria Anjelica P. Ancheta, Roberto S. Soriano, Erickson L. Llaguno

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a significant relationship between socio-economic class and household water supply demand, through determining or verifying the factors governing water use consumption patterns of households from a sampling from different socio-economic classes in Metro Manila, the national capital region of the Philippines. This study is also an opportunity to augment the lack of local academic literature due to the very few publications on urban household water demand after 1999. In over 600 Metro Manila households, a rapid survey was conducted on their average monthly water consumption and habits on household water usage. The questions in the rapid survey were based on an extensive review of literature on urban household water demand. Sample households were divided into socio-economic classes A-B and C-D. Cluster analysis, dummy coding and outlier tests were done to prepare the data for regression analysis. Subsequently, backward stepwise regression analysis was used in order to determine different statistical models to describe the determinants of water consumption. The key finding of this study is that the socio-economic class of a household in Metro Manila is a significant factor in water consumption. A-B households consume more water in contrast to C-D families based on the mean average water consumption for A-B and C-D households are 36.75 m3 and 18.92 m3, respectively. The most significant proxy factors of socio-economic class that were related to household water consumption were examined in order to suggest improvements in policy formulation and household water demand management.

Keywords: household water uses, socio-economic classes, urban planning, urban water demand management

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4222 Nanomechanical Characterization of Titanium Alloy Modified by Nitrogen Ion Implantation

Authors: Josef Sepitka, Petr Vlcak, Tomas Horazdovsky, Vratislav Perina

Abstract:

An ion implantation technique was used for designing the surface area of a titanium alloy and for irradiation-enhanced hardening of the surface. The Ti6Al4V alloy was treated by nitrogen ion implantation at fluences of 2·1017 and 4·1017 cm-2 and at ion energy 90 keV. The depth distribution of the nitrogen was investigated by Rutherford Backscattering Spectroscopy. The gradient of mechanical properties was investigated by nanoindentation. The continuous measurement mode was used to obtain depth profiles of the indentation hardness and the reduced storage modulus of the modified surface area. The reduced storage modulus and the hardness increase with increasing fluence. Increased fluence shifts the peak of the mechanical properties as well as the peak of nitrogen concentration towards to the surface. This effect suggests a direct relationship between mechanical properties and nitrogen distribution.

Keywords: nitrogen ion implantation, titanium-based nanolayer, storage modulus, hardness, microstructure

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4221 Semi Empirical Equations for Peak Shear Strength of Rectangular Reinforced Concrete Walls

Authors: Ali Kezmane, Said Boukais, Mohand Hamizi

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of reinforced concrete walls with rectangular cross section. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal shear wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood and Barda equations. Subsequently, nominal shear wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate shear wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate shear strength. Two new semi empirical equations are developed using data from tests of 57 walls for transitions walls and 27 for slender walls with the objective of improving the prediction of peak strength of walls with the most possible accurate.

Keywords: shear strength, reinforced concrete walls, rectangular walls, shear walls, models

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4220 Spin-Dipole Excitations Produced On-Demand in the Fermi Sea

Authors: Mykhailo Moskalets, Pablo Burset, Benjamin Roussel, Christian Flindt

Abstract:

The single-particle injection from the Andreev level and how such injection is simulated using a voltage pulse are discussed. Recently, high-speed quantum-coherent electron sources injecting one- to few-particle excitations into the Fermi sea have been experimentally realized. The main obstacle to using these excitations as flying qubits for quantum-information processing purposes is decoherence due to the long-range Coulomb interaction. An obvious way to get around this difficulty is to employ electrically neutral excitations. Here it is discussed how such excitations can be generated on-demand using the same injection principles as in existing electron sources. Namely, with the help of a voltage pulse of a certain shape applied to the Fermi sea or using a driven quantum dot with superconducting correlations. The advantage of the latter approach is the possibility of varying the electron-hole content in the excitation and the possibility of creating a charge-neutral but spin-dipole excitation.

Keywords: Andreev level, on-demand, single-electron, spin-dipole

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4219 New Efficient Method for Coding Color Images

Authors: Walaa M.Abd-Elhafiez, Wajeb Gharibi

Abstract:

In this paper a novel color image compression technique for efficient storage and delivery of data is proposed. The proposed compression technique started by RGB to YCbCr color transformation process. Secondly, the canny edge detection method is used to classify the blocks into edge and non-edge blocks. Each color component Y, Cb, and Cr compressed by discrete cosine transform (DCT) process, quantizing and coding step by step using adaptive arithmetic coding. Our technique is concerned with the compression ratio, bits per pixel and peak signal to noise ratio, and produce better results than JPEG and more recent published schemes (like, CBDCT-CABS and MHC). The provided experimental results illustrate the proposed technique which is efficient and feasible in terms of compression ratio, bits per pixel and peak signal to noise ratio.

Keywords: image compression, color image, q-coder, quantization, edge-detection

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4218 Modeling and Analysis of Solar Assisted Adsorption Cooling System Using TRNSYS

Authors: M. Wajahat, M. Shoaib, A. Waheed

Abstract:

As a result of increase in world energy demand as well as the demand for heating, refrigeration and air conditioning, energy engineers are now more inclined towards the renewable energy especially solar based thermal driven refrigeration and air conditioning systems. This research is emphasized on solar assisted adsorption refrigeration system to provide comfort conditions for a building in Islamabad. The adsorption chiller can be driven by low grade heat at low temperature range (50 -80 °C) which is lower than that required for generator in absorption refrigeration system which may be furnished with the help of common flat plate solar collectors (FPC). The aim is to offset the total energy required for building’s heating and cooling demand by using FPC’s thus reducing dependency on primary energy source hence saving energy. TRNSYS is a dynamic modeling and simulation tool which can be utilized to simulate the working of a complete solar based adsorption chiller to meet the desired cooling and heating demand during summer and winter seasons, respectively. Modeling and detailed parametric analysis of the whole system is to be carried out to determine the optimal system configuration keeping in view various design constraints. Main focus of the study is on solar thermal loop of the adsorption chiller to reduce the contribution from the auxiliary devices.

Keywords: flat plate collector, energy saving, solar assisted adsorption chiller, TRNSYS

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4217 A Parking Demand Forecasting Method for Making Parking Policy in the Center of Kabul City

Authors: Roien Qiam, Shoshi Mizokami

Abstract:

Parking demand in the Central Business District (CBD) has enlarged with the increase of the number of private vehicles due to rapid economic growth, lack of an efficient public transport and traffic management system. This has resulted in low mobility, poor accessibility, serious congestion, high rates of traffic accident fatalities and injuries and air pollution, mainly because people have to drive slowly around to find a vacant spot. With parking pricing and enforcement policy, considerable advancement could be found, and on-street parking spaces could be managed efficiently and effectively. To evaluate parking demand and making parking policy, it is required to understand the current parking condition and driver’s behavior, understand how drivers choose their parking type and location as well as their behavior toward finding a vacant parking spot under parking charges and search times. This study illustrates the result from an observational, revealed and stated preference surveys and experiment. Attained data shows that there is a gap between supply and demand in parking and it has maximized. For the modeling of the parking decision, a choice model was constructed based on discrete choice modeling theory and multinomial logit model estimated by using SP survey data; the model represents the choice of an alternative among different alternatives which are priced on-street, off-street, and illegal parking. Individuals choose a parking type based on their preference concerning parking charges, searching times, access times and waiting times. The parking assignment model was obtained directly from behavioral model and is used in parking simulation. The study concludes with an evaluation of parking policy.

Keywords: CBD, parking demand forecast, parking policy, parking choice model

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4216 Competitiveness of a Share Autonomous Electrical Vehicle Fleet Compared to Traditional Means of Transport: A Case Study for Transportation Network Companies

Authors: Maximilian Richter

Abstract:

Implementing shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) has many advantages. The main advantages are achieved when SAEVs are offered as on-demand services by a fleet operator. However, autonomous mobility on demand (AMoD) will be distributed nationwide only if a fleet operation is economically profitable for the operator. This paper proposes a microscopic approach to modeling two implementation scenarios of an AMoD fleet. The city of Zurich is used as a case study, with the results and findings being generalizable to other similar European and North American cities. The data are based on the traffic model of the canton of Zurich (Gesamtverkehrsmodell des Kantons Zürich (GVM-ZH)). To determine financial profitability, demand is based on the simulation results and combined with analyzing the costs of a SAEV per kilometer. The results demonstrate that depending on the scenario; journeys can be offered profitably to customers for CHF 0.3 up to CHF 0.4 per kilometer. While larger fleets allowed for lower price levels and increased profits in the long term, smaller fleets exhibit elevated efficiency levels and profit opportunities per day. The paper concludes with recommendations for how fleet operators can prepare themselves to maximize profit in the autonomous future.

Keywords: autonomous vehicle, mobility on demand, traffic simulation, fleet provider

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4215 Development of a Mechanical Ventilator Using A Manual Artificial Respiration Unit

Authors: Isomar Lima da Silva, Alcilene Batalha Pontes, Aristeu Jonatas Leite de Oliveira, Roberto Maia Augusto

Abstract:

Context: Mechanical ventilators are medical devices that help provide oxygen and ventilation to patients with respiratory difficulties. This equipment consists of a manual breathing unit that can be operated by a doctor or nurse and a mechanical ventilator that controls the airflow and pressure in the patient's respiratory system. This type of ventilator is commonly used in emergencies and intensive care units where it is necessary to provide breathing support to critically ill or injured patients. Objective: In this context, this work aims to develop a reliable and low-cost mechanical ventilator to meet the demand of hospitals in treating people affected by Covid-19 and other severe respiratory diseases, offering a chance of treatment as an alternative to mechanical ventilators currently available in the market. Method: The project presents the development of a low-cost auxiliary ventilator with a controlled ventilatory system assisted by integrated hardware and firmware for respiratory cycle control in non-invasive mechanical ventilation treatments using a manual artificial respiration unit. The hardware includes pressure sensors capable of identifying positive expiratory pressure, peak inspiratory flow, and injected air volume. The embedded system controls the data sent by the sensors. It ensures efficient patient breathing through the operation of the sensors, microcontroller, and actuator, providing patient data information to the healthcare professional (system operator) through the graphical interface and enabling clinical parameter adjustments as needed. Results: The test data of the developed mechanical ventilator presented satisfactory results in terms of performance and reliability, showing that the equipment developed can be a viable alternative to commercial mechanical ventilators currently available, offering a low-cost solution to meet the increasing demand for respiratory support equipment.

Keywords: mechanical fans, breathing, medical equipment, COVID-19, intensive care units

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4214 A Memetic Algorithm for an Energy-Costs-Aware Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling Problem

Authors: Christian Böning, Henrik Prinzhorn, Eric C. Hund, Malte Stonis

Abstract:

In this article, the flexible job-shop scheduling problem is extended by consideration of energy costs which arise owing to the power peak, and further decision variables such as work in process and throughput time are incorporated into the objective function. This enables a production plan to be simultaneously optimized in respect of the real arising energy and logistics costs. The energy-costs-aware flexible job-shop scheduling problem (EFJSP) which arises is described mathematically, and a memetic algorithm (MA) is presented as a solution. In the MA, the evolutionary process is supplemented with a local search. Furthermore, repair procedures are used in order to rectify any infeasible solutions that have arisen in the evolutionary process. The potential for lowering the real arising costs of a production plan through consideration of energy consumption levels is highlighted.

Keywords: energy costs, flexible job-shop scheduling, memetic algorithm, power peak

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4213 A New Paradigm to Make Cloud Computing Greener

Authors: Apurva Saxena, Sunita Gond

Abstract:

Demand of computation, data storage in large amount are rapidly increases day by day. Cloud computing technology fulfill the demand of today’s computation but this will lead to high power consumption in cloud data centers. Initiative for Green IT try to reduce power consumption and its adverse environmental impacts. Paper also focus on various green computing techniques, proposed models and efficient way to make cloud greener.

Keywords: virtualization, cloud computing, green computing, data center

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4212 Investigating Physician-Induced Demand among Mental Patients in East Azerbaijan, Iran: A Multilevel Approach of Hierarchical Linear Modeling

Authors: Hossein Panahi, Firouz Fallahi, Sima Nasibparast

Abstract:

Background & Aim: Unnecessary growth in health expenditures of developing countries in recent decades, and also the importance of physicians’ behavior in health market, have made the theory of physician-induced demand (PID) as one of the most important issues in health economics. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate the hypothesis of induced demand among mental patients who receive services from either psychologists or psychiatrists in East Azerbaijan province. Methods: Using data from questionnaires in 2020 and employing the theoretical model of Jaegher and Jegers (2000) and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), this study examines the PID hypothesis of selected psychologists and psychiatrists. The sample size of the study, after removing the questionnaires with missing data, is 45 psychologists and 203 people of their patients, as well as 30 psychiatrists and 160 people of their patients. Results: The results show that, although psychiatrists are ‘profit-oriented physicians’, there is no evidence of inducing unnecessary demand by them (PID), and the difference between the behavior of employers and employee doctors is due to differences in practice style. However, with regard to psychologists, the results indicate that they are ‘profit-oriented’, and there is a PID effect in this sector. Conclusion: According to the results, it is suggested that in order to reduce competition and eliminate the PID effect, the admission of students in the field of psychology should be reduced, patient information on mental illness should be increased, and government monitoring and control over the national health system must be increased.

Keywords: physician-induced demand, national health system, hierarchical linear modeling methods, multilevel modela

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4211 Cryptolepis sanguinolenta - A Medicinal Plant Used in the Treatment of Malaria, Cultivate It or Lose It

Authors: J. Naalamle Amissah, Dorcas Osei‐Safo, C. M. Asare, Benjamin Missah‐Assihene, Eric. Y. Danquah, Ivan Addae‐Mensah

Abstract:

Medicinal plants serve as a reservoir of active ingredients for the treatment of common ailments such as cancer, malaria and diabetes. With the recent wave of health consciousness and reliance on plant based medicines, the demand for medicinal plants has increased considerably. This surge in medicinal plant use has raised great concern amongst key players (herbalist, collectors, conservationist and researchers) along the value chain about the sustainability of the raw material. The over reliance on wild crafting as a means to obtain the raw material spells doom for several of Africa’s native medicinal plant species. In this study domestication protocols for the cultivation of Cryptolepis sanguinolenta (CS), a medicinal plant used in the treatment of malaria were developed. Initial surveys were conducted, using questionnaires comprising of open and close ended questions, to gather information that would inform the domestication and cultivation of the species. A field study was then conducted to determine the plant’s cropping cycle and the effect of staking and plant age on the active ingredient (cryptolepine) concentration in its roots. Results of the survey confirmed the demand for the raw material and threw more light on the harvesting methods and intensity of CS collection from the wild. Cryptolepine concentration was found to be highest (~1.84 mg/100 mg of root material) at 289 days after planting (DAP) which coincided with the peak of root dry weight (52.8 g), signifying the best time for root harvest. Staking was found to be important for seed production. The first 105 DAP were characterized by low yields of root dry weight (13.5 g), followed by a period of rapid growth in which the root dry weight increased almost linearly until 289 DAP. Although dry matter partitioned to the vines increased towards the end of the experimental period (60%), dry matter partitioned to the roots remained fairly constant (30%) throughout the experimental period. Cryptolepine was found to increase as the plant aged and the practice of staking CS promoted pod formation. A suitable cropping cycle for the cultivation of CS was also developed.

Keywords: domestication, staking, conservation, wild harvesting

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4210 Machine Learning Techniques in Seismic Risk Assessment of Structures

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

Abstract:

The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

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4209 Simultaneous Detection of Dopamine and Uric Acid in the Presence of Ascorbic Acid at Physiological Level Using Anodized Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube–Poldimethylsiloxane Paste Electrode

Authors: Angelo Gabriel Buenaventura, Allan Christopher Yago

Abstract:

A carbon paste electrode (CPE) composed of Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube (MWCNT) conducting particle and Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) binder was used for simultaneous detection of Dopamine (DA) and Uric Acid (UA) in the presence of Ascorbic Acid (AA) at physiological level. The MWCNT-PDMS CPE was initially activated via potentiodynamic cycling in a basic (NaOH) solution, which resulted in enhanced electrochemical properties. Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy measurements revealed a significantly lower charge transfer resistance (Rct) for the OH--activated MWCNT-PDMS CPE (Rct = 5.08kΩ) as compared to buffer (pH 7)-activated MWCNT-PDMS CPE (Rct = 25.9kΩ). Reversibility analysis of Fe(CN)63-/4- redox couple of both Buffer-Activated CPE and OH--Activated CPE showed that the OH—Activated CPE have peak current ratio (Ia/Ic) of 1.11 at 100mV/s while 2.12 for the Buffer-Activated CPE; this showed an electrochemically reversible behavior for Fe(CN)63-/4- redox couple even at relatively fast scan rate using the OH--activated CPE. Enhanced voltammetric signal for DA and significant peak separation between DA and UA was obtained using the OH--activated MWCNT-PDMS CPE in the presence of 50 μM AA via Differential Pulse Voltammetry technique. The anodic peak currents which appeared at 0.263V and 0.414 V were linearly increasing with increasing concentrations of DA and UA, respectively. The linear ranges were obtained at 25 μM – 100 μM for both DA and UA. The detection limit was determined to be 3.86 μM for DA and 5.61 μM for UA. These results indicate a practical approach in the simultaneous detection of important bio-organic molecules using a simple CPE composed of MWCNT and PDMS with base anodization as activation technique.

Keywords: anodization, ascorbic acid, carbon paste electrodes, dopamine, uric acid

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4208 Effects of Reclamation on Seasonal Dynamic of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus Stoichiometry in Suaeda salsa

Authors: Yajun Qiao, Yaner Yan, Ning Li, Shuqing An

Abstract:

In order to relieve the pressure on a land resource from a huge population, reclamation has occurred in many coastal wetlands. Plants can maintain their elemental composition within normal limits despite the variations of external conditions. Reclamation may affect carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) stoichiometry in the plant to some extent by altering physical and chemical properties of soil in a coastal wetland. We reported the seasonal dynamic of C, N and P stoichiometry in root, stem and leaf of Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall. and in soil between reclamation plots and natural plots. Our results of three-way ANOVA indicated that sampling season always had significant effect on C, N, P concentrations and their ratios; organ had no significant effect on N, P concentration and N:P; plot type had no significant effect on N concentration and C:N. Sampling season explained the most variability of tissue N and P contents, C:N, C:P and N:P, while it’s organ for C using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method. By independent sample T-test, we found that reclamation affect more on C, N and P stoichiometry of stem than that of root or leaf on the whole. While there was no difference between reclamation plots and natural plots for soil in four seasons. For three organs, C concentration had peak values in autumn and minimum values in spring while N concentration had peak values in spring and minimum values in autumn. For P concentration, three organs all had peak values in spring; however, the root had minimum value in winter, the stem had that in autumn, and leaf had that in summer. The seasonal dynamic of C, N and P stoichiometry in a leaf of Suaeda salsa were much steadier than that in root or stem under the drive of reclamation.

Keywords: nitrogen, phosphorus, reclamation, seasonal dynamic, Suaeda salsa

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4207 The Role of Nozzle-Exit Conditions on the Flow Field of a Plane Jet

Authors: Ravinesh C. Deo

Abstract:

This article reviews the role of nozzle-exit conditions on the flow field of a plane jet. The jet issuing from a sharp-edged orifice plate at a Reynolds number (Re=18000) with nozzle aspect ratio (AR=72) exhibits the greatest shear-layer instabilities, highest entrainment and jet-spreading rates compared to the radially contoured nozzle. The growth rate of the shear-layer is the highest for the orifice-jet although this property could be amplified for larger Re or AR. A local peak in turbulent energy is found at x=10h. The peak appears to be elevated for an orifice-jet with lower Re or AR. The far-field energy sustained by the orifice-jet exceeds the contoured case although a higher Re and AR may enhance this value. The spectra displays the largest eddies generated by the contoured nozzle. However, the frequency of coherent eddies is higher for the orifice-jet, with a larger magnitude achievable for lower Re and AR.

Keywords: plane jet, Reynolds number, nozzle-exit conditions, nozzle geometry, aspect ratio

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4206 Relevance of Brain Stem Evoked Potential in Diagnosis of Central Demyelination in Guillain Barre’ Syndrome

Authors: Geetanjali Sharma

Abstract:

Guillain Barre’ syndrome (GBS) is an auto-immune mediated demyelination poly-radiculo-neuropathy. Clinical features include progressive symmetrical ascending muscle weakness of more than two limbs, areflexia with or without sensory, autonomic and brainstem abnormalities, the purpose of this study was to determine subclinical neurological changes of CNS with GBS and to establish the presence of central demyelination in GBS. The study was prospective and conducted in the Department of Physiology, Pt. B. D. Sharma Post-graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Health Sciences, Rohtak, Haryana, India to find out early central demyelination in clinically diagnosed patients of GBS. These patients were referred from the department of Medicine of our Institute to our department for electro-diagnostic evaluation. The study group comprised of 40 subjects (20 clinically diagnosed GBS patients and 20 healthy individuals as controls) aged between 6-65 years. Brain Stem evoked Potential (BAEP) were done in both groups using RMS EMG EP mark II machine. BAEP parameters included the latencies of waves I to IV, inter peak latencies I-III, III-IV & I-V. Statistically significant increase in absolute peak and inter peak latencies in the GBS group as compared with control group was noted. Results of evoked potential reflect impairment of auditory pathways probably due to focal demyelination in Schwann cell derived myelin sheaths that cover the extramedullary portion of auditory nerves. Early detection of the sub-clinical abnormalities is important as timely intervention reduces morbidity.

Keywords: brainstem, demyelination, evoked potential, Guillain Barre’

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4205 Applying Energy Consumption Schedule and Comparing It with Load Shifting Technique in Residential Load

Authors: Amira M. Attia, Karim H. Youssef, Nabil H. Abbasy

Abstract:

Energy consumption schedule (ECS) technique shifts usage of loads from on peak hours and redistributes them throughout the day according to residents’ operating time preferences. This technique is used as form of indirect control from utility to improve the load curve and hence its load factor and reduce customer’s total electric bill as well. Similarly, load shifting technique achieves ECS purposes but as direct control form applied from utility. In this paper, ECS is simulated twice as optimal constrained mathematical formula, solved by using CVX program in MATLAB® R2013b. First, it is utilized for single residential building with ten apartments to determine max allowable energy consumption per hour for each residential apartment. Then, it is used for single apartment with number of shiftable domestic devices, where operating schedule is deduced using previous simulation output results as constraints. The paper ends by giving differences between ECS technique and load shifting technique via literature and simulation. Based on results assessment, it will be shown whether using ECS or load shifting is more beneficial to both customer and utility.

Keywords: energy consumption schedule, load shifting, comparison, demand side mangement

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4204 Changes in the Demand of Waterway Passengers During COVID-19 Pandemic: Case Study of Belém-Marajó Island, in Brazil

Authors: Maisa Sales Gama Tobias, Humberto de Paiva Junior, Luciano Silva Brito, Rui António Rodrigues Ramos

Abstract:

Waterway transport in the Amazon was the first means of access and occupation in the region. For the economic and social matter of high importance, still nowadays one of the main transport modes to several places in the region. To some places, still the only transport mode. With the advent of the pandemic, transport companies that already faced management challenges began to experience unprecedented structural changes and trends in trade and global supply chains. Thus, companies need operational reorganization to maintain the sustainability of the service under the penalty of loss of demand. Allied to this fact, it was observed that the demand presented behavior changes to adapt to this new moment. However, the lack of information about these changes makes it difficult to find solutions to maintain the quality of service. This work aimed to characterize the changes in the demand of waterway passengers through an empirical study with field research involving interviews with users and crew, on-board journeys, and visits to the waterway service company. The case study is the route Belém-Camara, on Marajó Island, in the state of Pará. This line is traditionally the only means of transport for this route, besides air transport on a much smaller scale. The collected data had a descriptive and analytical statistical treatment presented in this work. As the main result, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes, mainly in trip time and motives and, in the perception itself on service quality by part of the demand, with the increase of trip time and the feeling of insecurity. In conclusion, the service operator must review cost management and business survival strategies and tactics. The viability of the service and the social guarantee of transport proved to be threatened, putting at risk the service to the riverside populations.

Keywords: demand of waterway transport passengers, data analysis, COVID-19, amazonia

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4203 Major Sucking Pests of Rose and Their Seasonal Abundance in Bangladesh

Authors: Md Ruhul Amin

Abstract:

This study was conducted in the experimental field of the Department of Entomology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh during November 2017 to May 2018 with a view to understanding the seasonal abundance of the major sucking pests namely thrips, aphid and red spider mite on rose. The findings showed that the thrips started to build up their population from the middle of January with abundance 1.0 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (2.6 leaf⁻¹) in the middle of February and then declined. Aphid started to build up their population from the second week of November with abundance 6.0 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (8.4 leaf⁻¹) in the last week of December and then declined. Mite started to build up their population from the first week of December with abundance 0.8 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (8.2 leaf⁻¹) in the second week of March and then declined. Thrips and mite prevailed until the last week of April, and aphid showed their abundance till last week of May. The daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall had an insignificant negative correlation with thrips and significant negative correlation with aphid abundance. The daily mean temperature had significant positive, relative humidity had an insignificant positive, and rainfall had an insignificant negative correlation with mite abundance. The multiple linear regression analysis showed that the weather parameters together contributed 38.1, 41.0 and 8.9% abundance on thrips, aphid and mite on rose, respectively and the equations were insignificant.

Keywords: aphid, mite, thrips, weather factors

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4202 Determination of Thermal Properties of Crosslinked EVA in Outdoor Exposure by DSC, TSC and DMTA Methods

Authors: Kamel Agroui, George Collins, Rydha Yaiche

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to better understand the thermal characteristics and molecular behaviour of cured EVA before and after outdoor exposure. Thermal analysis methods as DSC, TSC and DMTA studies were conducted on EVA material. DSC experiments on EVA show a glass transition at about -33.1° C which is characteristic of crystalline phase and an endothermic peak at temperature of 55 °C characteristic of amorphous phase. The magnitude of the integrated temperature DSC peak for EVA is 14.4 J/g. The basic results by TSC technique is that there are two relaxations that are reproducibly observed in cured EVA encapsulant material. At temperature polarization 85°C, a low temperature relaxation occurs at –24.4°C and a high temperature relaxation occurs at +30.4ºC. DMTA results exhibit two tan peaks located at -14.9°C and +66.6°C. After outdoor exposure cured EVA by DSC analysis revealed two endothermic peaks due to post crystallization phenomenon and TSC suggests that prolonged exposure selectively effects the poly(vinyl acetate)-rich phase, with much less impact on the polyethylene-rich phase.

Keywords: EVA, encapsulation process, PV module, thermal analysis, quality control

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4201 Increasing Productivity through Lean Manufacturing Principles and Tools: A Successful Rail Welding Plant Case

Authors: T. A. Faria, C. C. Toniolo, L. F. Ribeiro

Abstract:

In order to satisfy the costumer’s needs, many sectors of industry and services has been spending major effort to make its processes more efficient. Facing a situation, when its production cannot cover the demand, the traditional way to achieve the production required involves, mostly, adding shifts, workforce, or even more machines. This paper narrates how lean manufacturing supported a dramatic increase of productivity at a rail welding plant in Brazil in order to meet the demand for the next years.

Keywords: productivity, lean manufacturing, rail welding, value stream mapping

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4200 A Predictive Model of Supply and Demand in the State of Jalisco, Mexico

Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

Abstract:

Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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