Search results for: disaster scenarios

Authors: Behrooz Balaei, Suzanne Wilkinson, Regan Potangaroa, Larry Abel, Philip McFarlane

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Water supply system failure has serious direct and indirect effects on people wellbeing. Post-disaster water system serviceability depends on a variety of factors from technical characteristics to social, economic, and organizational attributes of communities. This paper tests the organizational factors affecting water supply resilience to outline how these factors contributed to previous disasters. To do so, a framework is briefly introduced in this study to provide a clear guide to identify the significant relevant organizational factors. Then the factors affecting water serviceability following a disaster are outlines. Next, these factors are measured in the case of Tropical Cyclone Pam, which hit Vanuatu in March 2015. Reviewing the existing literature has also been carried out to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the background A site visit and a series of interviews have also been undertaken following the cyclone to collect site-specific data and information. In the end, the organizational factors were ranked to enable decision makers to identify significance of each factor compared to the others.

Keywords: water supply, resilience, organizational capacity, Vanuatu, Tropical Cyclone Pam

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Authors: S. K. Kakraliya, H. S. Jat, Manish Kakraliya, P. C. Sharma, M. L. Jat

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The biggest challenge in agriculture is to produce more food for the continually increasing world population with in the limited land and water resources. Serious water deficits and reducing natural resources are some of the major threats to the agricultural sustainability in many regions of South Asia. Food and water security may be gained by bringing improvement in the crop water productivity and the amount produced per unit of water consumed. Improvement in the crop water productivity may be achieved by pursuing alternative modern agronomics approaches, which are more friendly and efficient in utilizing natural resources. Therefore, a research trial on conservation agriculture (CA) and precision water management (PWM) was conducted in 2018-19 at Karnal, India to evaluate the effect on crop productivity and irrigation in sodic soils under rice-wheat (RW) systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). Eight scenarios were compared varied in the tillage, crop establishment, residue and irrigarion management i.e., {First four scenarios irrigated with flood irrigation method;Sc1-Conventional tillage (CT) without residue, Sc2-CT with residue, Sc3- Zero tillage (ZT) without residue, Sc4-ZT with residue}, and {last four scenarios irrigated with sub-surface drip irrigation method; Sc5-ZT without residue, Sc6- ZT with residue, Sc7-ZT inclusion legume without residue and Sc8- ZT inclusion legume with residue}. Results revealed that CA-flood irrigation (S3, Sc4) and CA-PWM system (Sc5, Sc6, Sc7 and Sc8) recorded about ~5% and ~15% higher wheat yield, respectively compared to Sc1. Similar, CA-PWM saved ~40% irrigation water compared to Sc1. Rice yield was not different under different scenarios in the first year (kharif 2019) but almost half irrigation water saved under CA-PWM system. Therefore, results of our study on modern agronomic practices including CA and precision water management (subsurface drip irrigation) for RW rotation would be addressed the existing and future challenges in the RW system.

Keywords: Sub-surface drip, Crop residue, Crop yield , Zero tillage

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Authors: N. Nivedita, S. Durbha

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Critical Infrastructure (CI) consists of services and technological networks such as healthcare, transport, water supply, electricity supply, information technology etc. These systems are necessary for the well-being and to maintain effective functioning of society. Critical Infrastructures can be represented as nodes in a network where they are connected through a set of links depicting the logical relationship among them; these nodes are interdependent on each other and interact with each at other at various levels, such that the state of each infrastructure influences or is correlated to the state of another. Disruption in the service of one infrastructure nodes of the network during a disaster would lead to cascading and escalating disruptions across other infrastructures nodes in the network. The operation of Healthcare Infrastructure is one such Critical Infrastructure that depends upon a complex interdependent network of other Critical Infrastructure, and during disasters it is very vital for the Healthcare Infrastructure to be protected, accessible and prepared for a mass casualty. To reduce the consequences of a disaster on the Critical Infrastructure and to ensure a resilient Critical Health Infrastructure network, knowledge, understanding, modeling, and analyzing the inter-dependencies between the infrastructures is required. The paper would present inter-dependencies related to Healthcare Critical Infrastructure based on Hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets modeling approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The model properties are being analyzed for the various state changes which occur when there is a disruption or damage to any of the Critical Infrastructure. The failure probabilities for the failure risk of interconnected systems are calculated by deriving a reachability graph, which is later mapped to a Markov chain. By analytically solving and analyzing the Markov chain, the overall vulnerability of the Healthcare CI HCPN model is demonstrated. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information-based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behavior of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Keywords: critical infrastructure interdependency, hierarchical coloured petrinet, healthcare critical infrastructure, Petri Nets, Markov chain

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Authors: Vassilis Argyropoulos, Magda Nikolaraizi, Maria Papazafiri

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This study describes a series of learning workshops, which took place within CUIDAR project. The workshops aimed to empower children to share their experiences and views in relation to natural hazards and disasters. The participants in the workshops were ten primary school students who had severe visual impairments or multiple disabilities and visual impairments (MDVI). The main objectives of the workshops were: a) to promote access of the children through the use of appropriate educational material such as texts in braille, enlarged text, tactile maps and the implementation of differentiated instruction, b) to make children aware regarding their rights to have access to information and to participate in planning and decision-making especially in relation to disaster education programs, and c) to encourage children to have an active role during the workshops through child-led and experiential learning activities. The children expressed their views regarding the meaning of hazards and disasters. Following, they discussed their experiences and emotions regarding natural hazards and disasters, and they chose to place the emphasis on a hazard, which was more pertinent to them, their community and their region, namely fires. Therefore, they recalled fires that have caused major disasters, and they discussed about the impact that these fires had on their community or on their country. Furthermore, they were encouraged to become aware regarding their own role and responsibility to prevent a fire or get prepared and know how to behave if a fire occurs. They realized that prevention and preparation are a matter of personal responsibility. They also felt the responsibility to inform their own families. Finally, they met important people involved in fire protection such as rescuers and firefighters and had the opportunity to carry dialogues. In conclusion, through child led workshops, experiential and accessible activities, the students had the opportunity to share their own experiences, to express their views and their questions, to broaden their knowledge and to realize their personal responsibility in disaster risk reduction, specifically in relation to fires.

Keywords: accessibility, children, disasters, visual impairment

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Authors: K. Vallianou, T. Alexopoulos, V. Plaka, M. K. Seleventi, V. Skanavis, C. Skanavis

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The present research addresses the role of place attachment and emotions in community resiliency and recovery within the context of a disaster. Natural disasters represent a disruption in the normal functioning of a community, leading to a general feeling of disorientation. This study draws on the trauma caused by a natural hazard such as a forest fire. The changes of the sense of togetherness are being assessed. Finally this research determines how the place attachment of the inhabitants was affected during the reorientation process of the community. The case study area is Mati, a small coastal town in eastern Attica, Greece. The fire broke out on July 23^rd, 2018. A quantitative research was conducted through questionnaires via phone interviews, one year after the disaster, to address community resiliency in the long-run. The sample was composed of 159 participants from the rural community of Mati plus 120 coming from Skyros Island that was used as a control group. Inhabitants were prompted to answer items gauging their emotions related to the event, group identification and emotional significance of their community, and place attachment before and a year after the fire took place. Importantly, the community recovery and reorientation were examined within the context of a relative absence of government backing and official support. Emotions related to the event were aggregated into 4 clusters related to: activation/vigilance, distress/disorientation, indignation, and helplessness. The findings revealed a decrease in the level of place attachment in the impacted area of Mati as compared to the control group of Skyros Island. Importantly, initial distress caused by the fire prompted the residents to identify more with their community and to report more positive feelings toward their community. Moreover, a mediation analysis indicated that the positive effect of community cohesion on place attachment one year after the disaster was mediated by the positive feelings toward the community. Finally, place attachment contributes to enhanced optimism and a more positive perspective concerning Mati’s future prospects. Despite an insufficient state support to this affected area, the findings suggest an important role of emotions and place attachment during the process of recovery. Implications concerning the role of emotions and social dynamics in meshing place attachment during the disaster recovery process as well as community resiliency are discussed.

Keywords: community resilience, natural disasters, place attachment, wildfire

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Authors: Kathleen Frances Haigh, Mieke Nieder-Heitmann, Somayeh Farzad, Mohsen Ali Mandegari, Johann Ferdinand Gorgens

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Lignocellulose can be converted to a range of biochemicals and biofuels. Where this is derived from agricultural waste, issues of competition with food are virtually eliminated. One such source of lignocellulose is the South African sugar industry. Lignocellulose could be accessed by changes to the current farming practices and investments in more efficient boilers. The South African sugar industry is struggling due to falling sugar prices and increasing costs and it is proposed that annexing a biorefinery to a sugar mill will broaden the product range and improve viability. Process simulations of the selected chemicals were generated using Aspen Plus®. It was envisaged that a biorefinery would be annexed to a typical South African sugar mill. Bagasse would be diverted from the existing boilers to the biorefinery and mixed with harvest residues. This biomass would provide the feedstock for the biorefinery and the process energy for the biorefinery and sugar mill. Thus, in all scenarios a portion of the biomass was diverted to a new efficient combined heat and power plant (CHP). The Aspen Plus® simulations provided the mass and energy balance data to carry out an economic assessment of each scenarios. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and minimum selling price (MSP) was calculated for each scenario. As a starting point scenarios were generated to investigate the production of ethanol, ethanol and lactic acid, ethanol and furfural, butanol, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch syncrude. The bypass to the CHP plant is a useful indicator of the energy demands of the chemical processes. An iterative approach was used to identify a suitable bypass because increasing this value had the combined effect of increasing the amount of energy available and reducing the capacity of the chemical plant. Bypass values ranged from 30% for syncrude production to 50% for combined ethanol and furfural production. A hurdle rate of 15.7% was selected for the IRR. The butanol, combined ethanol and furfural, or the Fischer-Tropsch syncrude scenarios are unsuitable for investment with IRRs of 4.8%, 7.5% and 11.5% respectively. This provides valuable insights into research opportunities. For example furfural from sugarcane bagasse is an established process although the integration of furfural production with ethanol is less well understood. The IRR for the ethanol scenario was 14.7%, which is below the investment criteria, but given the technological maturity it may still be considered for investment. The scenarios which met the investment criteria were the combined ethanol and lactic acid, and the methanol scenarios with IRRs of 20.5% and 16.7%, respectively. These assessments show that the production of biochemicals from lignocellulose can be commercially viable. In addition, this assessment have provided valuable insights for research to improve the commercial viability of additional chemicals and scenarios. This has led to further assessments of the production of itaconic acid, succinic acid, citric acid, xylitol, polyhydroxybutyrate, polyethylene, glucaric acid and glutamic acid.

Keywords: biorefineries, sugar mill, methanol, ethanol

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Authors: T. Tommasi, E. Batuecas, G. Mancini, G. Saracco, D. Fino

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Extra virgin olive-oil (EVO) production is an important economic activity for several countries, especially in the Mediterranean area such as Spain, Italy, Greece and Tunisia. The two major by-products from olive oil production, solid-liquid Olive Pomace (OP) and the Olive Mill Waste Waters (OMWW), are still mainly disposed on soil, in spite of the existence of legislation which already limits this practice. The present study compares the environmental impacts associated with two different scenarios for the management of waste from olive oil production through a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The two alternative scenarios are: (I) Anaerobic Digestion and (II) current Disposal on soil. The analysis was performed through SimaPro software and the assessment of the impact categories was based on International Life Cycle Data and Cumulative Energy Demand methods. Both the scenarios are mostly related to the cultivation and harvesting phase and are highly dependent on the irrigation practice and related energy demand. Results from the present study clearly show that as the waste disposal on soil causes the worst environmental performance of all the impact categories here considered. Important environmental benefits have been identified when anaerobic digestion is instead chosen as the final treatment. It was consequently demonstrated that anaerobic digestion should be considered a feasible alternative for olive mills, to produce biogas from common olive oil residues, reducing the environmental burden and adding value to the olive oil production chain.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, waste management, agro-food waste, biogas

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Authors: Mohd Zamri Che Wanik

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This paper presents the management of the Fault Ride Through event within a Solar Farm during a grid fault. The modeling and simulation of a photovoltaic (PV) with battery energy storage connected to the power network will be described. The modeling approach and the study analysis performed are described. The model and operation scenarios are simulated using a digital simulator for different scenarios. The dynamic response of the system when subjected to sudden self-clearance temporary fault is presented. The capability of the PV system and battery storage riding through the power system fault and, at the same time, supporting the local grid by injecting fault current is demonstrated. For each case, the different control methods to achieve the objective of supporting the grid according to grid code requirements are presented and explained. The inverter modeling approach is presented and described.

Keywords: faut ride through, solar farm, grid code, power network

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Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

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The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

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Authors: Freddy Houndekindo

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A study was carried out to evaluate the flood risk in the district of Malanville located along the Niger River. The knowledge produce by this study is useful in the implementation of adaptation and/or mitigation measures to alleviate the impact of the flooding on the populations, the economy and the environment. Over the course of the study, the lack of data in the area of interest has been one of the main challenges encountered. Therefore, in the analysis of the flood hazard different sources of remotely sensed data were used. Moreover, the flood hazard was analysed by applying a 1D hydraulic model: HEC-RAS. After setting up the model for the study area, the different flood scenarios considered were simulated and mapped using ArcGIS and the HEC-GEORAS extension. The result of the simulation gave information about the inundated areas and the water depths at each location. From the analysis of the flood hazard, it was found that between 47% and 50% of the total area of the district of Malanville would be flooded in the different flood scenarios considered, and the water depth varies between 1 and 7 m. The townships of Malanville most at risk of flooding are Momkassa and Galiel, located in a high-risk and very high-risk zone, respectively. Furthermore, the assessment of the flood risk showed that the most vulnerable sector to the inundations is the agricultural sector. Indeed, the cultivated floodplains were the most affected areas by the floodwater in every flood scenarios. Knowing that a high proportion of the population of the district relies on their farmlands in these floodplains for their livelihood, the floods pose a challenge not only to the food security in the area but also to its development.

Keywords: flood risk management, Niger, remote sensing, vulnerability

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Authors: Sa-Kil Kim, Jang-Soo Lee

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On March 31, 1993, a severe fire accident took place in a nuclear power plant located in Narora in North India. The event involved a major fire in the turbine building of NAPS unit-1 and resulted in a total loss of power to the unit for 17 hours. In addition, there was a heavy ingress of smoke in the control room, mainly through the intake of the ventilation system, forcing the operators to vacate the control room. The Narora fire accident provides us lessons indicating that operators could lose their mind and predictable behaviors during a fire. After the Fukushima accident, which resulted from a natural disaster, unanticipated external events are also required to be prepared and controlled for the ultimate safety of nuclear power plants. From last year, our research team has developed a test and evaluation facility that can simulate external events such as an earthquake and fire based on the operators’ real-sense. As one of the results of the project, we proposed a unit real-sense-based facility that can simulate fire events in a control room for utilizing a test-bed of human factor validation. The test-bed has the operator’s workstation shape and functions to simulate fire conditions such as smoke, heat, and auditory alarms in accordance with the prepared fire scenarios. Furthermore, the test-bed can be used for the operators’ training and experience.

Keywords: human behavior in fire, human factors validation, nuclear power plants, real-sense-based fire simulation

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Margaret S. Wright

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Background/Significance: During many recent public health emergencies/disasters, public health nursing data has been missing or delayed, potentially impacting the decision-making and response. Data used as evidence for decision-making in response, planning, and mitigation has been erratic and slow, decreasing the ability to respond. Methodology: Applying best practices in data management and data use in public health settings, and guided by the concepts outlined in ‘Disaster Standards of Care’ models leads to the development of recommendations for a model of best practices in data management and use in public health disasters/emergencies by public health nurses. As the ‘patient’ in public health disasters/emergencies is the community (local, regional or national), guidelines for patient documentation are incorporated in the recommendations. Findings: Using model public health nurses could better plan how to prepare for, respond to, and mitigate disasters in their communities, and better participate in decision-making in all three phases bringing public health nursing data to the discussion as part of the evidence base for decision-making.

Keywords: data management, decision making, disaster planning documentation, public health nursing

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Authors: Ming-Hwi Yao, Su-Szu Yang

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Typhoons are one of the major types of disasters that affect Taiwan each year and that cause severe damage to agriculture. Indeed, the damage exacted during a typical typhoon season can be up to $1 billion, and is responsible for nearly 75% of yearly agricultural losses. However, there is no consensus on how to reduce the damage caused by the strong winds and heavy precipitation engendered by typhoons. One suggestion is the use of windbreak nets, which are a low-cost and easy-to-use disaster mitigation strategy for crop production. In the present study, we conducted an evaluation to determine the optimal conditions of a windbreak net by using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. This model may be used as a reference for crop protection. The results showed that CFD simulation validated windbreak nets of different mesh sizes and heights in the experimental area; thus, CFD is an efficient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of windbreak nets. Specifically, the effective wind protection length and height were found to be 6 and 1.3 times the length and height of the windbreak net, respectively. During a real typhoon, maximum wind gusts of 18 m s-1 can be reduced to 4 m s-1 by using a windbreak net that has a 70% blocking rate. In short, windbreak nets are significantly effective in protecting typhoon-affected areas.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, disaster, typhoon, windbreak net

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alzahrani, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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There is an international consensus on the climate change in the entire world and this is as a result of the combination of the natural factors, such as volcanoes and hurricanes with increased of human activity on the earth, such as industrial renaissance. Where this solidarity increases emissions of greenhouse gases GHGs that considered as the main driver of climate change scenarios and related emerging risks and impacts on buildings. These climatic risks including damages, disruption and disquiet are set to increase and it is considered as the main challenges and difficulties facing built environment due to major implications on assets sector. Consequently, the threat from climate change patterns has a significant impact on a variety of complex human decisions, which affect all aspects of living. Understanding the relationship between buildings and such risks arising from climate change scenarios on buildings are the key in insuring the optimal timing and design of policies and systems, which affect all aspects of the built environment. This paper will uncovering this correlation between emerging climate change risks and the building assets. In addition, how these emerging risks can be classified in practical way in terms of their impact type on buildings. Hence, this mapping will assist professionals and interested parties in the building sector to cope with such risks in several systematic ways including development and designing of mitigation and adaptation strategies and processes of design, specification, construction, and operation; all these leads to successful management of assets.

Keywords: climate change, climate change risks, built environment, building sector, impacts

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Authors: S. Schröder, P. Ennen, T. Langer, S. Müller, M. Shehadeh, M. Haberstroh, F. Hees

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Since a bit over a year ago, Festo AG and Co. KG, Festo Didactic SE, robomotion GmbH, the researchers of the Cybernetics-Lab IMA/ZLW and IfU, as well as the Human-Computer Interaction Center at the RWTH Aachen University, have been working together in the focal point of assembly competences to realize different scenarios in the field of human-machine interaction (HMI). In the framework of project ARIZ, questions concerning the future of production within the fourth industrial revolution are dealt with. There are many perspectives of human-robot collaboration that consist Industry 4.0 on an individual, organization and enterprise level, and these will be addressed in ARIZ. The aim of the ARIZ projects is to link AI-Approaches to assembly problems and to implement them as prototypes in demonstrators. To do so, island and flow based production scenarios will be simulated and realized as prototypes. These prototypes will serve as applications of flexible robotics as well as AI-based planning and control of production process. Using the demonstrators, human interaction strategies will be examined with an information system on one hand, and a robotic system on the other. During the tests, prototypes of workspaces that illustrate prospective production work forms will be represented. The human being will remain a central element in future productions and will increasingly be in charge of managerial tasks. Questions thus arise within the overall perspective, primarily concerning the role of humans within these technological revolutions, as well as their ability to act and design respectively to the acceptance of such systems. Roles, such as the 'Trainer' of intelligent systems may become a possibility in such assembly scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine interaction, information technology, island based production, assembly competences

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Authors: Victor Toom

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Albeit it is never possible to anticipate the full range of difficulties after a catastrophe, efforts to identify victims of mass casualty events have become institutionalized and standardized with the aim of effectively and efficiently addressing the many challenges and contingencies. Such ‘disaster victim identification’ (DVI) practices are dependent on the forensic sciences, are subject of national legislation, and are reliant on technical and organizational protocols to mitigate the many complexities in the wake of catastrophe. Apart from such technological, legal and bureaucratic elements constituting a DVI operation, victims’ families and their emotions are also part and parcel of any effort to identify casualties of mass human fatality incidents. Take for example the fact that forensic experts require (antemortem) information from the group of relatives to make identification possible. An identified body or body part is also repatriated to kin. Relatives are thus main stakeholders in DVI operations. Much has been achieved in years past regarding facilitating victims’ families’ issues and their emotions. Yet, how families are dealt with by experts and authorities is still considered a difficult topic. Due to sensitivities and required emphatic interaction with families on the one hand, and the rationalized DVI efforts, on the other hand, there is still scope for improving communication, providing information and meaningful inclusion of relatives in the DVI effort. This paper aims to bridge the standardized world of DVI efforts and families’ experienced realities and makes suggestions to further improve DVI efforts through inclusion of victims’ families. Based on qualitative interviews, the paper narrates involvement and experiences of inter alia DVI practitioners, victims’ families, advocates and clergy in the wake of the 1995 Srebrenica genocide which killed approximately 8,000 men, and the 9/11 in New York City with 2,750 victims. The paper shows that there are several models of including victims’ families into a DVI operation, and it argues for a model of where victims’ families become a partner in DVI operations.

Keywords: disaster victim identification (DVI), victims’ families, social science (qualitative), 9/11 attacks, Srebrenica genocide

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Authors: Cassandra Hansen, Paul Doherty, Chris Ferner, German Whitley, Holly Torpey

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Wildfire is a natural and inevitable occurrence, yet changing climatic conditions have increased the severity, frequency, and risk to human populations in the wildland/urban interface (WUI) of the Western United States. Rapid dissemination of accurate wildfire information is critical to both the Incident Management Team (IMT) and the affected community. With the advent of increasingly sophisticated information systems, GIS can now be used as a web platform for sharing geographic information in new and innovative ways, such as virtual story map applications. Crowdsourced information can be extraordinarily useful when coupled with authoritative information. Information abounds in the form of social media, emergency alerts, radio, and news outlets, yet many of these resources lack a spatial component when first distributed. In this study, we describe how twenty-eight volunteer GIS professionals across nine Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACC) sourced, curated, and distributed Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) from authoritative social media accounts focused on disseminating information about wildfires and public safety. The combination of fire progression maps with VGI incident information helps answer three critical questions about an incident, such as: where the first started. How and why the fire behaved in an extreme manner and how we can learn from the fire incident's story to respond and prepare for future fires in this area. By adding a spatial component to that shared information, this team has been able to visualize shared information about wildfire starts in an interactive map that answers three critical questions in a more intuitive way. Additionally, long-term social and technical impacts on communities are examined in relation to situational awareness of the disaster through map layers and agency links, the number of views in a particular region of a disaster, community involvement and sharing of this critical resource. Combined with a GIS platform and disaster VGI applications, this workflow and information become invaluable to communities within the WUI and bring spatial awareness for disaster preparedness, response, mitigation, and recovery. This study highlights progression maps as the ultimate storytelling mechanism through incident case studies and demonstrates the impact of VGI and sophisticated applied cartographic methodology make this an indispensable resource for authoritative information sharing.

Keywords: storytelling, wildfire progression maps, volunteered geographic information, spatial and temporal

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Authors: Ali Heydarimoghim

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In this paper, the optimal placement of charging and discharging stations is done to determine the location and capacity of the stations, reducing the cost of electric vehicle owners' losses, reducing the cost of distribution system losses, and reducing the costs associated with the stations. Also, observing the permissible limits of the bus voltage and the capacity of the stations and their distance are considered as constraints of the problem. Given the traffic situation in different areas of a city, we estimate the amount of energy required to charge and the amount of energy provided to discharge electric vehicles in each area. We then introduce the electricity distribution system of the city in question. Following are the scenarios for introducing the problem and introducing the objective and constraint functions. Finally, the simulation results for different scenarios are compared.

Keywords: charging & discharging stations, hybrid vehicles, optimization, replacement

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Authors: Dessy Pinem, Rahmadian Sembiring, Adanil Bushra

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Medan Belawan is one of the subdistricts of 21 districts in Medan. Medan Belawan Sub-district is directly adjacent to the Malacca Strait in the North. Due to its direct border with the Malacca Strait, the problem in this sub-district, which has continued for many years, is a flood of rob. In 2015, rob floods inundated Sicanang urban village, Belawan I urban village, Belawan Bahagia urban village and Bagan Deli village. The extent of inundation in the flood of rob that occurred in September 2015 reached 540, 938 ha. Rob flood is a phenomenon where the sea water is overflowing into the mainland. Rob floods can also be interpreted as a puddle of water on the coastal land that occurs when the tidal waters. So this phenomenon will inundate parts of the coastal plain or lower place of high tide sea level. Rob flood is a daily disaster faced by the residents in the district of Medan Belawan. Rob floods can happen every month and last for a week. The flood is not only the residents' houses, the flood also soaked the main road to Belawan Port reaching 50 cm. To deal with the problems caused by the flood and to prepare coastal communities to face the character of coastal areas, it is necessary to know the vulnerability of the people who are always the victims of the rob flood. Are the people of Medan Belawan sub-district, especially in the flood-affected villages, able to cope with the consequences of the floods? To answer this question, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of the Belawan District community in the face of the flood disaster. This research is descriptive, qualitative and quantitative. Data were collected by observation, interview and questionnaires in 4 urban villages often affected by rob flood. The vulnerabilities measured are physical, economic, social, environmental, organizational and motivational vulnerabilities. For vulnerability in the physical field, the data collected is the distance of the building, floor area ratio, drainage, and building materials. For economic vulnerability, data collected are income, employment, building ownership, and insurance ownership. For the vulnerability in the social field, the data collected is education, number of family members, children, the elderly, gender, training for disasters, and how to dispose of waste. For the vulnerability in the field of organizational data collected is the existence of organizations that advocate for the victims, their policies and laws governing the handling of tidal flooding. The motivational vulnerability is seen from the information center or question and answer about the rob flood, and the existence of an evacuation plan or path to avoid disaster or reduce the victim. The results of this study indicate that most people in Medan Belawan sub-district have a high-level vulnerability in physical, economic, social, environmental, organizational and motivational fields. They have no access to economic empowerment, no insurance, no motivation to solve problems and only hope to the government, not to have organizations that support and defend them, and have physical buildings that are easily destroyed by rob floods.

Keywords: disaster, rob flood, Medan Belawan, vulnerability

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Authors: Kunal Shah, Swati Patel

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Many real world problems involve data which can be considered as multi-label data streams. Efficient methods exist for multi-label classification in non streaming scenarios. However, learning in evolving streaming scenarios is more challenging, as the learners must be able to adapt to change using limited time and memory. Classification is used to predict class of unseen instance as accurate as possible. Multi label classification is a variant of single label classification where set of labels associated with single instance. Multi label classification is used by modern applications, such as text classification, functional genomics, image classification, music categorization etc. This paper introduces the task of multi-label classification, methods for multi-label classification and evolution measure for multi-label classification. Also, comparative analysis of multi label classification methods on the basis of theoretical study, and then on the basis of simulation was done on various data sets.

Keywords: binary relevance, concept drift, data stream mining, MLSC, multiple window with buffer

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Authors: Maria Fatima Almeida, Rodrigo Calili, George Soares, João Krause, Myrthes Marcele Dos Santos, Anna Carolina Suzano E. Silva, Marcos Alexandre Da

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In Brazil, the building sector accounts for 1/6 of energy consumption and 50% of electricity consumption. A complex sector with several driving actors plays an essential role in the country's economy. Currently, the digitalization readiness in this sector is still low, mainly due to the high investment costs and the difficulty of estimating the benefits of digital technologies in buildings. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of digitalization for increasing energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil has been pointed out as relevant in the political and sectoral contexts, both in the medium and long-term horizons. To contribute to the debate on the possible evolving trajectories of digitalization in the building sector in Brazil and to subsidize the formulation or revision of current public policies and managerial decisions, three future scenarios were created to anticipate the potential energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil due to digitalization by 2050. This work aims to present these scenarios as a basis to foresight the potential energy efficiency in this sector, according to different digitalization paces - slow, moderate, or fast in the 2050 horizon. A methodological approach was proposed to create alternative prospective scenarios, combining the Global Business Network (GBN) and the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective Strategy and Organisation (LIPSOR) methods. This approach consists of seven steps: (i) definition of the question to be foresighted and time horizon to be considered (2050); (ii) definition and classification of a set of key variables, using the prospective structural analysis; (iii) identification of the main actors with an active role in the digital and energy spheres; (iv) characterization of the current situation (2021) and identification of main uncertainties that were considered critical in the development of alternative future scenarios; (v) scanning possible futures using morphological analysis; (vi) selection and description of the most likely scenarios; (vii) foresighting the potential energy efficiency in each of the three scenarios, namely slow digitalization; moderate digitalization, and fast digitalization. Each scenario begins with a core logic and then encompasses potentially related elements, including potential energy efficiency. Then, the first scenario refers to digitalization at a slow pace, with induction by the government limited to public buildings. In the second scenario, digitalization is implemented at a moderate pace, induced by the government in public, commercial, and service buildings, through regulation integrating digitalization and energy efficiency mechanisms. Finally, in the third scenario, digitalization in the building sector is implemented at a fast pace in the country and is strongly induced by the government, but with broad participation of private investments and accelerated adoption of digital technologies. As a result of the slow pace of digitalization in the sector, the potential for energy efficiency stands at levels below 10% of the total of 161TWh by 2050. In the moderate digitalization scenario, the potential reaches 20 to 30% of the total 161TWh by 2050. Furthermore, in the rapid digitalization scenario, it will reach 30 to 40% of the total 161TWh by 2050.

Keywords: building digitalization, energy efficiency, scenario building, prospective structural analysis, morphological analysis

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Authors: Zane Bulderberga

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Spatial dimension in development planning is becoming more topical in 21st century as a result of changes in population structure. Sustainable spatial development focuses on identifying and using territorial advantages to foster the harmonized development of the entire country, reducing negative effects of population concentration, increasing availability and mobility. EU and national development planning documents state polycentrism as main tool for balance spatial development, including investment concentration in growth centres. If mutual cooperation of growth centres as well as urban-rural cooperation is not fostered, then territorial differences can deepen and create unbalanced development. The aim of research: to evaluate the urban-rural interaction, elaborating spatial development scenarios in framework of Latvian regional policy. To perform the research monographic, comparison, abstract-logical method, synthesis and analysis will be used when studying the theoretical aspects of research aiming at collecting the ideas of scientists from different countries, concepts, regulations as well as to create meaningful scientific discussion. Hierarchy analysis process (AHP) will be used to state further scenarios of spatial development in Latvia. Experts from various institutions recognized urban-rural interaction and co-operation as an essential tool for the development. The most important factors for balanced spatial development in Latvia are availability of public transportation and improvement of service availability. Evaluating the three alternative scenarios, it was concluded that the urban-rural partnership will ensure a balanced development in Latvian regions.

Keywords: rural-urban interaction, rural-urban cooperation, spatial development, AHP

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Authors: Jiun-Horng Tsai, Shi-Jie, Nieh

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Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) has become an important issue all over the world over the last decade. Annual mean PM₂.₅ concentration has been over the ambient air quality standard of PM₂.₅ (annual average concentration as 15μg/m³) which adapted by Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA). TEPA, therefore, has developed a number of air pollution control measures to improve the ambient concentration by reducing the emissions of primary fine particulate matter and the precursors of secondary PM₂.₅. This study investigated the potential improvement of ambient PM₂.₅ concentration by the TEPA program and the other scenario for further emission reduction on various sources. Four scenarios had been evaluated in this study, including a basic case and three reduction scenarios (A to C). The ambient PM₂.₅ concentration was evaluated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality modelling system (CMAQ) ver. 4.7.1 along with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 3.4.1. The grid resolutions in the modelling work are 81 km × 81 km for domain 1 (covers East Asia), 27 km × 27 km for domain 2 (covers Southeast China and Taiwan), and 9 km × 9 km for domain 3 (covers Taiwan). The result of PM₂.₅ concentration simulation in different regions of Taiwan shows that the annual average concentration of basic case is 24.9 μg/m³, and are 22.6, 18.8, and 11.3 μg/m³, respectively, for scenarios A to C. The annual average concentration of PM₂.₅ would be reduced by 9-55 % for those control scenarios. The result of scenario C (the emissions of precursors reduce to allowance levels) could improve effectively the airborne PM₂.₅ concentration to attain the air quality standard. According to the results of unit precursor reduction contribution, the allowance emissions of PM₂.₅, SOₓ, and NOₓ are 16.8, 39, and 62 thousand tons per year, respectively. In the Kao-Ping air basin, the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > NOₓ > SOₓ, whereas the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > SOₓ > NOₓ in others area. The result indicates that the target pollutants that need to be reduced in different air basin are different, and the control measures need to be adapted to local conditions.

Keywords: airborne PM₂.₅, community multi-scale air quality modelling system, control measures, weather research and forecasting model

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Authors: Sudikshya Bhandari, Jonathan K. London

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The earthquake of April 2015 was one of the biggest disasters in the history of Nepal. The epicenter was located near Barpak, north of the Gorkha district. Before the disaster, this settlement was a compact and homogeneous settlement manifesting its uniqueness through the social and cultural activities, and a distinct vernacular architecture. Narrow alleys with stone paved streets, buildings with slate roofs, and common spaces between the houses made this settlement socially, culturally, and environmentally cohesive. With the presence of micro hydro power plants, local economic activities enabled the local community to exist and thrive. Agriculture and animal rearing are the sources of livelihood for the majority of families, along with the booming homestays (where local people welcome guests to their home, as a business) and local shops. Most of these activities are difficult to find as the houses have been destroyed with the earthquake and the process of reconstruction has been transforming the outlook of the settlement. This study characterized the drastic transformation in Barpak post-earthquake, and analyzed the consequences of the reconstruction process. In addition, it contributes to comprehending a broader representation about unsustainability created by the lack of contextual post-disaster development. Since the research is based in a specific area, a case study approach was used. Sample houses were selected on the basis of ethnicity and house typology. Mixed methods such as key informant and semi structured interviews, focus groups, observations and photographs are used for the collection of data. The research focus is predominantly on the physical change of the house typology from vernacular to externally adopted designs. This transformation of the house entails socio-cultural changes such as social fragmentation with differences among the rich and the poor and decreases in the social connectivity within families and neighborhood. Families have found that new houses require more maintenance and resources that have increased their economic expenses. The study also found that the reconstructed houses are not thermally comfortable in the cold climate of Barpak, leading to the increased use of different sources of heating like electric heaters and more firewood. Lack of storage spaces for crops and livestock have discouraged them to pursue traditional means of livelihood and depend more on buying food from stores, ultimately making it less economical for most of the families. The transformation of space leading to the economic, social and cultural changes demonstrates the unsustainability of Barpak. Conclusions from the study suggest place based and inclusive planning and policy formations that include locals as partners, identifying the possible ways to minimize the impact and implement these recommendations into the future policy and planning scenarios.

Keywords: earthquake, Nepal, reconstruction, settlement, transformation

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Authors: Nivedhitha Venkatakrishnan

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Flooding in urban areas in India has become a usual ritual phenomenon and a nightmare to most cities, which is a consequence of man-made disruption resulting in disaster. The City planning in India falls short of withstanding hydro generated disasters. This has become a barrier and challenge in the process of development put forth by urbanization, high population density, expanding informal settlements, environment degradation from uncollected and untreated waste that flows into natural drains and water bodies, this has disrupted the natural mechanism of hazard protection such as drainage channels, wetlands and floodplains. The magnitude and the impact of the mishap was high because of the failure of development policies, strategies, plans that the city had adopted. In the current scenario, cities are becoming the home for future, with economic diversification bringing in more investment into cities especially in domains of Urban infrastructure, planning and design. The uncertainty of the Urban futures in these low elevated coastal zones faces an unprecedented risk and threat. The study on focuses on three major pillars of resilience such as Recover, Resist and Restore. This process of getting ready to handle the situation bridges the gap between disaster response management and risk reduction requires a shift in paradigm. The study involved a qualitative research and a system design approach (framework). The initial stages involved mapping out of the urban water morphology with respect to the spatial growth gave an insight of the water bodies that have gone missing over the years during the process of urbanization. The major finding of the study was missing links between traditional water harvesting network was a major reason resulting in a manmade disaster. The research conceptualized the ideology of a sponge city framework which would guide the growth through institutional frameworks at different levels. The next stage was on understanding the implementation process at various stage to ensure the shift in paradigm. Demonstration of the concepts at a neighborhood level where, how, what are the functions and benefits of each component. Quantifying the design decision with rainwater harvest, surface runoff and how much water is collected and how it could be collected, stored and reused. The study came with further recommendation for Water Mitigation Spaces that will revive the traditional harvesting network.

Keywords: flooding, man made disaster, resilient city, traditional harvesting network, waterbodies

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Authors: S. P. Hewagama

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Different kinds of distressing events happen in the world causing a wide range of reactions and feelings. Psychological first aid (PFA) is humane supportive response for suffering. All health workers especially PHMs who play a major role as first responders in a disaster should be able to provide basic PFA effectively. Aim of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitudes and associated factors on the provision of PFA among PHMs during disasters. A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out among 307 Public Health Midwives in Colombo RDHS area. In the study population, 86.6% (n=266) of the respondents were aware of the term “Psychological first aid” while 13.4% (n=41) were not aware. The total knowledge score was good in majority 85.4%(n=262) of the respondents while only 14.3%(n=45) had a poor knowledge on PFA. There was the statistically significant difference in relation to the level of education with the total knowledge score. Comprehensive desirable attitudes towards PFA was low (30.61%, n=94). According to the study, only a less than a quarter (21.82%, (n = 67)) of the study population had received training on PFA. More than half (56%, n=172) of the respondents had experience in responding to disasters. Conclusions and Recommendations: The overall knowledge and attitudes were found to be satisfactory. However, it is important to improve the knowledge level of the PHMs by providing training and workshops on PFA.

Keywords: disaster, humane supportive assistance, psychological first aid, public health midwives

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Authors: Chiara Cesali

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The effects of climate change are increasingly evident: increases in temperature (i.e. global warming), greater frequency of extreme weather events, i.e. storms, floods, which often affect transport infrastructures. Large-scale climatological models with long-term horizons (up to 2100) show the possibility of significant increases in precipitation in the future, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from IPCC. Consequently, the insufficiency of existing hydraulic works (i.e. bridges, culverts, drainage systems) may be more frequent, or those currently being designed may become insufficient in the future. Thus, the hydraulic design methods of transport infrastructure must begin to take into account the influence of climate change. To this purpose, criteria for applying to the hydraulic design of a railway infrastructure some of the approaches currently available for determining design rainfall intensity and/or peak discharge flow on the basis of possible climate change scenarios are defined and proposed in the paper. Some application cases are also described.

Keywords: climate change, hydraulic design, precipitation, railway

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Authors: Li Yongyi

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In order to explore the distribution of geological disasters within the expressway area of Shaanxi Province, the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory is applied based on the geographic information system technology platform, and the ground elevation, rainfall, vegetation coverage and other indicators are selected for analysis, and the expressway area is sensitive Sexual evaluation. The results show that the highway area disasters in Shaanxi Province are mainly distributed in the southern mountainous areas and are dominated by landslides; the disaster area ratio basically increases with the increase in ground elevation, surface slope, surface undulation, rainfall, and vegetation coverage. The increase in the distance from the river shows a decreasing trend; after grading the disaster sensitivity within 5km of the expressway, the extremely sensitive area, the highly sensitive area, the medium sensitive area, the low sensitive area, and the extremely low sensitive area respectively account for 8.17%、15.80%、22.99%、26.22%、26.82%. Highly sensitive road areas are mainly distributed in southern Shaanxi.

Keywords: highway engineering, sensitivity, analytic hierarchy process, geological hazard, road area

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Authors: Saeid Gharechelou, Ryutaro Tateishi

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Earthquake is an inevitable catastrophic natural disaster. The damages of buildings and man-made structures, where most of the human activities occur are the major cause of casualties from earthquakes. A comparison of optical and SAR data is presented in the case of Kathmandu valley which was hardly shaken by 2015-Nepal Earthquake. Though many existing researchers have conducted optical data based estimated or suggested combined use of optical and SAR data for improved accuracy, however finding cloud-free optical images when urgently needed are not assured. Therefore, this research is specializd in developing SAR based technique with the target of rapid and accurate geospatial reporting. Should considers that limited time available in post-disaster situation offering quick computation exclusively based on two pairs of pre-seismic and co-seismic single look complex (SLC) images. The InSAR coherence pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic was used to detect the change in damaged area. In addition, the ground truth data from field applied to optical data by random forest classification for detection of damaged area. The ground truth data collected in the field were used to assess the accuracy of supervised classification approach. Though a higher accuracy obtained from the optical data then integration by optical-SAR data. Limitation of cloud-free images when urgently needed for earthquak evevent are and is not assured, thus further research on improving the SAR based damage detection is suggested. Availability of very accurate damage information is expected for channelling the rescue and emergency operations. It is expected that the quick reporting of the post-disaster damage situation quantified by the rapid earthquake assessment should assist in channeling the rescue and emergency operations, and in informing the public about the scale of damage.

Keywords: Sentinel-1A data, Landsat-8, earthquake damage, InSAR, rapid damage monitoring, 2015-Nepal earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 172