Search results for: binary logistic model

Authors: Reza Zakerinejad

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Gully erosion is a serious problem that threading the sustainability of agricultural area and rangeland and water in a large part of Iran. This type of water erosion is the main source of sedimentation in many catchment areas in the north of Iran. Since in many national assessment approaches just qualitative models were applied the aim of this study is to predict the spatial distribution of gully erosion processes by means of detail terrain analysis and GIS -based logistic regression in the loess deposition in a case study in the Golestan Province. This study the DEM with 25 meter result ion from ASTER data has been used. The Landsat ETM data have been used to mapping of land use. The TreeNet model as a stochastic modeling was applied to prediction the susceptible area for gully erosion. In this model ROC we have set 20 % of data as learning and 20 % as learning data. Therefore, applying the GIS and satellite image analysis techniques has been used to derive the input information for these stochastic models. The result of this study showed a high accurate map of potential for gully erosion.

Keywords: TreeNet model, terrain analysis, Golestan Province, Iran

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

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While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

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Authors: Vatsal Patel, Niraj Shah

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The aim of the research reported in this paper is to assess the Strength and durability performance of High Performance Concrete containing different percentages of waste marble powder produced from marble industry. Concrete mixes possessing a target mean compressive strength of 70MPa were prepared with 0%,5%,10%,15% and 20% cement replacement by waste marble powder with W/B =0.33. More specifically, the compressive strength, flexural strength, chloride penetration, sorptivity and accelerated corrosion were determined. Concrete containing 10% waste marble powder proved to have best Mechanical and durability properties than other mixtures made with binary blends. However, poorer performance was noticeable when replacement percentage was higher. The replacement of Waste Marble Powder will have major environmental benefits.

Keywords: durability, high performance concrete, marble waste powder, sorptivity, accelerated corrosion

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Authors: Hanna Zietara

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Gastronomy is one of the oldest forms of commercial activity. It is currently one of the most popular and still dynamically developing branches of business. Socio-economic changes, its widespread occurrence, new techniques, or culinary styles affect the almost unlimited possibilities of its development. Importantly, regardless of the form of business adopted, food service is strongly related to logistics processes, and areas of food service that are closely linked to logistics are of strategic importance. Any inefficiency in logistics processes results in reduced chances for success and achieving competitive advantage by companies belonging to the catering industry. The aim of the paper is to identify the areas of logistic support occurring in the catering business, affecting the scope of the logistic processes implemented. The aim of the paper is realized through a plural homogeneous approach, based on: direct observation, text analysis of current documents, in-depth free targeted interviews.

Keywords: gastronomy, competitive advantage, logistics, logistics support

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Authors: Angelika Kris D. Dalangin, Cesar B. Quicoy

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Rice farming is a major source of livelihood and employment in the Philippines, but it requires a substantial amount of capital. Capital may come from income (farm, non-farm, and off-farm), savings and credit. However, rice farmers suffer from lack of capital due to high costs of inputs and low productivity. Capital insufficiency, coupled with low productivity, hindered them to meet their basic household and production needs. Hence, they resorted to borrowing money, mostly from informal lenders who charge very high interest rates. As another source of capital, savings can help rice farmers meet their basic needs for both the household and the farm. However, information is inadequate whether the farmers save or not, as well as, why they do not depend on savings to augment their lack of capital. Thus, it is worth analyzing how rice farmers saved. The study revealed, using the actual savings which is the difference between the household income and expenditure, that about three-fourths (72%) of the total number of farmers interviewed are savers. However, when they were asked whether they are savers or not, more than half of them considered themselves as non-savers. This gap shows that there are many farmers who think that they do not have savings at all; hence they continue to borrow money and do not depend on savings to augment their lack of capital. The study also identified the forms of savings, saving motives, and savings utilization among rice farmers. Results revealed that, for the past 12 months, most of the farmers saved cash at home for liquidity purposes while others deposited cash in banks and/or saved their money in the form of livestock. Among the most important reasons of farmers for saving are for daily household expenses, for building a house, for emergency purposes, for retirement, and for their next production. Furthermore, the study assessed the factors affecting the rice farmers’ savings behaviour using logistic regression. Results showed that the factors found to be significant were presence of non-farm income, per capita net farm income, and per capita household expense. The presence of non-farm income and per capita net farm income positively affects the farmers’ savings behaviour. On the other hand, per capita household expenses have negative effect. The effect, however, of per capita net farm income and household expenses is very negligible because of the very small chance that the farmer is a saver. Generally, income and expenditure were proved to be significant factors that affect the savings behaviour of the rice farmers. However, most farmers could not save regularly due to low farm income and high household and farm expenditures. Thus, it is highly recommended that government should develop programs or implement policies that will create more jobs for the farmers and their family members. In addition, programs and policies should be implemented to increase farm productivity and income.

Keywords: agricultural economics, agricultural finance, binary logistic regression, logit, Philippines, Quezon, rice farmers, savings, savings behaviour

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Authors: Helene Martin, Solmaz Boroomandi Barati, Jean-Charles Pinoli, Stephane Valette, Yann Gavet

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In the present work we developed an image processing algorithm to measure water droplets characteristics during dropwise condensation on pillared surfaces. The main problem in this process is the similarity between shape and size of water droplets and the pillars. The developed method divides droplets into four main groups based on their size and applies the corresponding algorithm to segment each group. These algorithms generate binary images of droplets based on both their geometrical and intensity properties. The information related to droplets evolution during time including mean radius and drops number per unit area are then extracted from the binary images. The developed image processing algorithm is verified using manual detection and applied to two different sets of images corresponding to two kinds of pillared surfaces.

Keywords: dropwise condensation, textured surface, image processing, watershed

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Ankit Nagar, Dinesh Kumar Nauriyal, Sukhpal Singh

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This paper examines the key determinants of farmers’ access to agricultural extension services, sources of agricultural extension services preferred and accessed by the farmers. An ordered logistic regression model was used to analyse the data of the 360 sample households based on a primary survey conducted in western Uttar Pradesh, India. The study finds that farmers' decision to engage in the agricultural extension programme is significantly influenced by factors such as education level, gender, farming experience, social group, group membership, farm size, credit access, awareness about the extension scheme, farmers' perception, and distance from extension sources. The most intriguing finding of this study is that the progressive farmers, which have long been regarded as a major source of knowledge diffusion, are the most distrusted sources of information as they are suspected of withholding vital information from potential beneficiaries. The positive relationship between farm size and ‘Access’ underlines that the extension services should revisit their strategies for targeting more marginal and small farmers constituting over 85 percent of the agricultural households by incorporating their priorities in their outreach programs. The study suggests that marginal and small farmers' productive potential could still be greatly augmented by the appropriate technology, advisory services, guidance, and improved market access. Also, the perception of poor quality of the public extension services can be corrected by initiatives aimed at building up extension workers' capacity.

Keywords: agriculture, access, extension services, ordered logistic regression

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Authors: Yao-Hong Tsai

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This paper presents a weighted approach to unconstrained iris recognition. Nowadays, commercial systems are usually characterized by strong acquisition constraints based on the subject’s cooperation. However, it is not always achievable for real scenarios in our daily life. Researchers have been focused on reducing these constraints and maintaining the performance of the system by new techniques at the same time. With large variation in the environment, there are two main improvements to develop the proposed iris recognition system. For solving extremely uneven lighting condition, statistic based illumination normalization is first used on eye region to increase the accuracy of iris feature. The detection of the iris image is based on Adaboost algorithm. Secondly, the weighted approach is designed by Gaussian functions according to the distance to the center of the iris. Furthermore, local binary pattern (LBP) histogram is then applied to texture classification with the weight. Experiment showed that the proposed system provided users a more flexible and feasible way to interact with the verification system through iris recognition.

Keywords: authentication, iris recognition, adaboost, local binary pattern

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Authors: Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Mehak Bhandary, Sowmya J. Rao

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Introduction: The significance of the human foot and its measurements in identifying an individual has been proved a lot of times by different studies in different geographical areas and its association to the stature and gender of the individual has been justified by many researches. In our study we have used different foot measurements including the length, width, malleol height and navicular height for establishing its association to stature and gender and to find out its accuracy. The purpose of this study is to show the relation of foot measurements with stature and gender, and to derive Multiple and Logistic regression equations for stature and gender estimation in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: The subjects for this study were 200 South Indian students out of which 100 were females and 100 were males, aged between 18 to 24 years. The data for the present study included the stature, foot length, foot breath, foot malleol height, foot navicular height of both right and left foot. Descriptive statistics, T-test and Pearson correlation coefficients were derived between stature, gender and foot measurements. The stature was estimated from right and left foot measurements for both male and female South Indian population using multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis for gender estimation. Results: The means, standard deviation, stature, right and left foot measurements and T-test in male population were higher than in females. LFL (Left foot length) is more than RFL (Right Foot length) in male groups, but in female groups the length of both foot are almost equal [RFL=226.6, LFL=227.1]. There is not much of difference in means of RFW (Right foot width) and LFW (Left foot width) in both the genders. Significant difference were seen in mean values of malleol and navicular height of right and left feet in male gender. No such difference was seen in female subjects. Conclusions: The study has successfully demonstrated the correlation of foot length in stature estimation in all the three study groups in both right and left foot. Next in parameters are Foot width and malleol height in estimating stature among male and female groups. Navicular height of both right and left foot showed poor relationship with stature estimation in both male and female groups. Multiple regression equations for both right and left foot measurements to estimate stature were derived with standard error ranging from 11-12 cm in males and 10-11 cm in females. The SEE was 5.8 when both male and female groups were pooled together. The logistic regression model which was derived to determine gender showed 85% accuracy and 92.5% accuracy using right and left foot measurements respectively. We believe that stature and gender can be estimated with foot measurements in South Indian population.

Keywords: foot length, gender, stature, South Indian

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Authors: Daisy Saikia

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Long-term maternal health issues with Caesarean section deliveries are significant. Thus, this study aims to investigate the prevalence of caesarean section deliveries in India and to comprehend its associated predictors in light of the high caesarean section delivery rate. The study uses data from the fifth National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-5) round. Specifically, live births to women aged 15-49 in the 5 years preceding the survey. Binary logistic regression was used to check the adjusted effects of the predictor variables on caesarean section delivery. STATA/SE v16.0 was used for the data analysis with a 5% significance level. Twenty-two per cent of the live births to women were delivered by caesarean section. There was socio-economic, demographic and geographical variation in the prevalence of caesarean section delivery in India. Increasing age, body mass index, marital status, mother’s occupation and education, birth order, place of delivery, full ANC, non-tribal status, wealth quintile and region are significantly associated with caesarean section deliveries in India. Caesarean section deliveries should only be performed when essential from a medical perspective, and regions, where the rate is too high, should follow the guidelines. Additionally, it needs to be investigated whether private hospitals compel patients to have caesarean section deliveries to increase their revenue. Thus, these unnecessary deliveries must be examined immediately for safe childbirth and the wellness of both mother and child.

Keywords: caesarean section, delivery, maternal health, India

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Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

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Background: According to United Nation Children’s Fund, it has been estimated that worldwide about 165 million children were stunted in 2012 and India alone accounts for 38% of global burden of stunting. In terms of incidence, India is home of more than 60 million stunted children worldwide. Our study aims to examine the effect of pregnancy intention and maternal postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting in India. We hypothesized that effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal maternal depressive symptoms were mediated by social support. Methods: We used data from first wave of Young Lives Study India. Out of 2011 children recruited in original cohort, 1833 children had complete information on pregnancy intention, maternal depression and other variables. A series of multivariate logistic regression model were used to examine the effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting. Results: Bivariate result indicates that a higher percent of children born after unintended pregnancy (40%) were stunted than children of intended pregnancy (26%). Likewise, proportion of stunted children was also higher among women of high postnatal depressive symptoms (35%) than low level of depression (24%). Results of multivariate logistic regression model indicate that children born after unintended pregnancy were significantly more likely to be stunted than children born after intended pregnancy (Coefficient: 1.70, CI: 1.17, 2.48). Likewise, early childhood stunting was also associated with maternal postnatal depressive symptoms among women (Coefficient: 1.48, CI: 1.16, 1.88). The effect of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting remains unchanged after controlling for social support and other variables. Conclusions: The findings of this study provide conclusive evidence regarding consequences of pregnancy intention and postnatal depressive symptoms on early childhood stunting in India. Therefore, there is need to identify the women with unintended pregnancy and incorporate the promotion of mental health into their national reproductive and child health programme.

Keywords: pregnancy intention, postnatal depressive symptoms, social support, childhood stunting, young lives study, India

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Authors: Prashant Malavadkar, Santosh Dhotre, Maruti Shikare

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The n-point splitting operation on graphs is used to characterize 4-connected graphs with some more operations. Element splitting operation on binary matroids is a natural generalization of the notion of n-point splitting operation on graphs. The element splitting operation on a graphic (cographic) matroid may not yield a graphic (cographic) matroid. Characterization of graphic (cographic) matroids whose element splitting matroids are graphic (cographic) is known. The element splitting operation on a co-graphic matroid, in general may not yield a graphic matroid. In this paper, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the cographic matroid to yield a graphic matroid under the element splitting operation. In fact, we prove that the element splitting operation, by any pair of elements, on a cographic matroid yields a graphic matroid if and only if it has no minor isomorphic to M(K4); where K4 is the complete graph on 4 vertices.

Keywords: binary matroids, splitting, element splitting, forbidden minor

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Authors: Chin-Chia Jane

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In a transportation network, travel time refers to the transmission time from source node to destination node, whereas reliability refers to the probability of a successful connection from source node to destination node. With an increasing emphasis on quality of service (QoS), both performance indexes are significant in the design and analysis of transportation systems. In this work, we extend the well-known flow network model for transportation networks so that travel time and reliability are integrated into the QoS measurement simultaneously. In the extended model, in addition to the general arc capacities, each intermediate node has a time weight which is the travel time for per unit of commodity going through the node. Meanwhile, arcs and nodes are treated as binary random variables that switch between operation and failure with associated probabilities. For pre-specified travel time limitation and demand requirement, the QoS of a transportation network is the probability that source can successfully transport the demand requirement to destination while the total transmission time is under the travel time limitation. This work is pioneering, since existing literatures that evaluate travel time reliability via a single optimization path, the proposed QoS focuses the performance of the whole network system. To compute the QoS of transportation networks, we first transfer the extended network model into an equivalent min-cost max-flow network model. In the transferred network, each arc has a new travel time weight which takes value 0. Each intermediate node is replaced by two nodes u and v, and an arc directed from u to v. The newly generated nodes u and v are perfect nodes. The new direct arc has three weights: travel time, capacity, and operation probability. Then the universal set of state vectors is recursively decomposed into disjoint subsets of reliable, unreliable, and stochastic vectors until no stochastic vector is left. The decomposition is made possible by applying existing efficient min-cost max-flow algorithm. Because the reliable subsets are disjoint, QoS can be obtained directly by summing the probabilities of these reliable subsets. Computational experiments are conducted on a benchmark network which has 11 nodes and 21 arcs. Five travel time limitations and five demand requirements are set to compute the QoS value. To make a comparison, we test the exhaustive complete enumeration method. Computational results reveal the proposed algorithm is much more efficient than the complete enumeration method. In this work, a transportation network is analyzed by an extended flow network model where each arc has a fixed capacity, each intermediate node has a time weight, and both arcs and nodes are independent binary random variables. The quality of service of the transportation network is an integration of customer demands, travel time, and the probability of connection. We present a decomposition algorithm to compute the QoS efficiently. Computational experiments conducted on a prototype network show that the proposed algorithm is superior to existing complete enumeration methods.

Keywords: quality of service, reliability, transportation network, travel time

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Authors: Yao-Hong Tsai

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This paper presents an efficient fusion algorithm for iris images to generate stable feature for recognition in unconstrained environment. Recently, iris recognition systems are focused on real scenarios in our daily life without the subject’s cooperation. Under large variation in the environment, the objective of this paper is to combine information from multiple images of the same iris. The result of image fusion is a new image which is more stable for further iris recognition than each original noise iris image. A wavelet-based approach for multi-resolution image fusion is applied in the fusion process. The detection of the iris image is based on Adaboost algorithm and then local binary pattern (LBP) histogram is then applied to texture classification with the weighting scheme. Experiment showed that the generated features from the proposed fusion algorithm can improve the performance for verification system through iris recognition.

Keywords: image fusion, iris recognition, local binary pattern, wavelet

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Authors: Morsy Ahmed Morsy Ismail

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In this paper, the structure of a coherent homodyne receiver for the Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) Optical Code Division Multiple Access (OCDMA) network is introduced based on the Multi-Length Weighted Modified Prime Code (ML-WMPC) for multimedia applications. The Bit Error Rate (BER) of this homodyne detection is evaluated as a function of the number of active users and the signal to noise ratio for different code lengths according to the multimedia application such as audio, voice, and video. Besides, the Mach-Zehnder interferometer is used as an external phase modulator in homodyne detection. Furthermore, the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) and the receiver noise in a shot-noise limited regime are taken into consideration in the BER calculations.

Keywords: OCDMA networks, bit error rate, multiple access interference, binary phase-shift keying, multimedia

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Authors: Fahad Raj Khan, Suleman Khan

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There is a lack of consensus about the predictive value of raised blood glucose levels in terms of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in non-diabetic patients admitted for acute decompensated heart failure. The purpose of this research was to examine the long-term prognosis of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in non-diabetic persons who had increased blood glucose levels, i.e., stress hyperglycemia, at the time of their ADHF hospitalization. The research involved 650 non-diabetic patients. Based on their admission stress hyperglycemia, they were divided into two groups.ie with and without (SHGL). The two groups' one-year outcomes for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) were compared, and key predictors of MACEs were discovered. For statistical analysis, the two-tailed Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher's exact test, and binary logistic regression analysis were utilized. SHGL was found in 353 (54.3%) individuals. It was more frequent in men than in women. About 27% of patients with SHGL had previously been admitted for ADHF. Almost 62% were hypertensive, whereas 14 % had CKD. MACEs were significantly predicted by SHGL, HTN, prior hospitalization for ADHF, CKD, and cardiogenic shock upon admission. SHGL at the time of ADHF admission, independent of DM status, may be a predictive indication of MACEs.

Keywords: stress hyperglycemia, acute heart failure, major adverse cardiac events, MACEs

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Authors: Nesrine T. Lamie

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Four, accurate, precise, and sensitive spectrophotometric methods are developed for the simultaneous determination of a binary mixture containing amlodipine besylate (AM) and atenolol (AT) where AM is determined at its λmax 360 nm (0D), while atenolol can be determined by different methods. Method (A) is absorpotion factor (AFM). Method (B) is the new Ratio Difference method(RD) which measures the difference in amplitudes between 210 and 226 nm of ratio spectrum., Method (C) is novel constant center spectrophotometric method (CC) Method (D) is mean centering of the ratio spectra (MCR) at 284 nm. The calibration curve is linear over the concentration range of 10–80 and 4–40 μg/ml for AM and AT, respectively. These methods are tested by analyzing synthetic mixtures of the cited drugs and they are applied to their commercial pharmaceutical preparation. The validity of results was assessed by applying standard addition technique. The results obtained were found to agree statistically with those obtained by a reported method, showing no significant difference with respect to accuracy and precision.

Keywords: amlodipine, atenolol, absorption factor, constant center, mean centering, ratio difference

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Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

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Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM

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Authors: Mesfin Nigussie

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The objectives of the study were to identify factors affecting rural households’ willingness to install biogas plant and amount willingness to pay in order to examine determinants of effective demand for biogas technology. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select 120 respondents for the study. The binary probit regression model was employed to identify factors affecting rural households’ decision to install biogas technology. The probit model result revealed that household size, total household income, access to extension services related to biogas, access to credit service, proximity to water sources, perception of households about the quality of biogas, perception index about attributes of biogas, perception of households about installation cost of biogas and availability of energy source were statistically significant in determining household’s decision to install biogas. Tobit model was employed to examine determinants of rural household’s amount of willingness to pay. Based on the model result, age of the household head, total annual income of the household, access to extension service and availability of other energy source were significant variables that influence willingness to pay. Providing due considerations for extension services, availability of credit or subsidy, improving the quality of biogas technology design and minimizing cost of installation by using locally available materials are the main suggestions of this research that help to create effective demand for biogas technology.

Keywords: biogas technology, effective demand, probit model, tobit model, willingnes to pay

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Authors: Ghouas Halima, Haddou Boumedienne, Jean Peal Cancelier, Cristophe Gourdon, Ssaka Collines

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This work concerns the coacervate extraction of industrial dye, namely BezanylGreen - F2B, from an aqueous solution by nonionic surfactant “Lutensol AO7 and TX-114” (readily biodegradable). Binary water/surfactant and pseudo-binary (in the presence of solute) phase diagrams were plotted. The extraction results as a function of wt.% of the surfactant and temperature are expressed by the following four quantities: percentage of solute extracted, E%, residual concentrations of solute and surfactant in the dilute phase (Xs,w, and Xt,w, respectively) and volume fraction of coacervate at equilibrium (Фc). For each parameter, whose values are determined by a design of experiments, these results are subjected to empirical smoothing in three dimensions. The aim of this study is to find out the best compromise between E% and Фc. E% increases with surfactant concentration and temperature in optimal conditions, and the extraction extent of TA reaches 98 and 96 % using TX-114 and Lutensol AO7, respectively. The effect of sodium sulfate or cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) addition is also studied. Finally, the possibility of recycling the surfactant is proved.

Keywords: extraction, cloud point, non ionic surfactant, bezanyl green

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Authors: Shehu A. Salau, Robiu O. Aliu, Nofiu B. Nofiu

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Nigeria is among countries of the world confronted with food insecurity problem. The agricultural production systems that produces food for the teaming population is not endurable. Attention is thus being given to alternative approaches of intensification such as the use of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) technologies. Thus, this study assessed the effect of SLM technologies on food security of farming households in Kwara State, Nigeria. A-three stage sampling technique was used to select a sample of 200 farming households for this study. Descriptive statistics, Shriar index, Likert scale, food security index and logistic regression were employed for the analysis. The result indicated that majority (41%) of the household heads were between the ages of 51 and 70 years with an average of 60.5 years. Food security index revealed that 35% and 65% of the households were food secure and food insecure respectively. The logistic regression showed that SLM technologies, estimated income, household size, gender and age of the household heads were the critical determinants of food security among farming households. The most effective coping strategies adopted by households geared towards lessening the effects of food insecurity are reduced quality of food consumed, employed off-farm jobs to raise household income and diversion of money budgeted for other uses to purchase foods. Governments should encourage the adoption and use of SLM technologies at all levels. Policies and strategies that reduce household size should be enthusiastically pursued to reduce food insecurity.

Keywords: agricultural practices, coping strategies, farming households, food security, SLM technologies, logistic regression

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Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

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Authors: Vijay Reena Durai, Krithica Srinivasan

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Introduction: The two fundamental skills involved in the growth and wellbeing of any child can be categorized into visual motor and perceptual skills. Visual stress is a disorder which is characterized by visual discomfort, blurred vision, misspelling words, skipping lines, letters bunching together. There is a need to understand the deficits in perceptual skills among children with visual stress. Aim: To estimate the association between visual stress and visual perceptual skills Objective: To compare visual perceptual skills of children with and without visual stress Methodology: Children between 8 to 15 years of age participated in this cross-sectional study. All children with monocular visual acuity better than or equal to 6/6 were included. Visual perceptual skills were measured using test for visual perceptual skills (TVPS) tool. Reading speed was measured with the chosen colored overlay using Wilkins reading chart and pattern glare score was estimated using a 3cpd gratings. Visual stress was defined as change in reading speed of greater than or equal to 10% and a pattern glare score of greater than or equal to 4. Results: 252 children participated in this study and the male: female ratio of 3:2. Majority of the children preferred Magenta (28%) and Yellow (25%) colored overlay for reading. There was a significant difference between the two groups (MD=1.24±0.6) (p<0.04, 95% CI 0.01-2.43) only in the sequential memory skills. The prevalence of visual stress in this group was found to be 31% (n=78). Binary logistic regression showed that odds ratio of having poor visual perceptual skills was OR: 2.85 (95% CI 1.08-7.49) among children with visual stress. Conclusion: Children with visual stress are found to have three times poorer visual perceptual skills than children without visual stress.

Keywords: visual stress, visual perceptual skills, colored overlay, pattern glare

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Authors: Khalid H. Abass

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Al-Ni-Cr alloy contains different ratios of Ni and Cr was prepared by mixing Al, Ni and Cr at 800oC under an argon atmosphere. The prepared alloys were heated for 1300 hr to 560oC, and then cooled rapidly by water at the ambient temperature. Surface morphology for alloys is studied by scanning electron microscope (SEM). The resultant homogeneous surface is a result of heat treatment. The X-ray diffraction patterns showed (111), (200), and (220) diffraction lines from cubic Al crystal structure, and suggested that the intensity of peak (111) orientation is predominant. Three binary phases were observed and grown in alloys: Al3Ni (Orthorhombic, a = 6.598Ǻ, b = 7.352 Ǻ, c = 4.802 Ǻ), Cr9Al17 (Rhombohedra, a = 12.910 Ǻ, c = 15.677), and Ni2Cr3 (Tetragonal, a = 8.82 Ǻ, c = 4.58 Ǻ). The average crystallite sizes of the prepared samples were found to be from 3000 to 3094 nm by SEM, which is much smaller than that estimated from XRD data. Corrosion resistance increases with increasing Ni-Cr content in Al alloys. The electrical volume resistivity decreased with increasing Ni-Cr content at low frequency. This behavior can be seen generally at 50Hz, where the electrical volume resistivity reached the value of 3.98×10-8Ω.cm for the ratio Al-1.8 at.%Ni-0.18at.%Cr.

Keywords: Al-Ni-Cr alloy, corrosion current, electrical volume resistivity, binary phase, homogeneous surface

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial component of maintaining a customer-oriented business as in the telecom industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years. It has become more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market of telecom industries, especially for those who are looking to turn over their service providers. So, predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining those customers. Machine learning can be utilized to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: machine learning, gradient boosting, logistic regression, churn, random forest, decision tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Bliss Singhal

Abstract:

Machine learning (ML) is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI) where computers analyze data and find patterns in the data. The study focuses on the detection of metastatic cancer using ML. Metastatic cancer is the stage where cancer has spread to other parts of the body and is the cause of approximately 90% of cancer-related deaths. Normally, pathologists spend hours each day to manually classifying whether tumors are benign or malignant. This tedious task contributes to mislabeling metastasis being over 60% of the time and emphasizes the importance of being aware of human error and other inefficiencies. ML is a good candidate to improve the correct identification of metastatic cancer, saving thousands of lives and can also improve the speed and efficiency of the process, thereby taking fewer resources and time. So far, the deep learning methodology of AI has been used in research to detect cancer. This study is a novel approach to determining the potential of using preprocessing algorithms combined with classification algorithms in detecting metastatic cancer. The study used two preprocessing algorithms: principal component analysis (PCA) and the genetic algorithm, to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and then used three classification algorithms: logistic regression, decision tree classifier, and k-nearest neighbors to detect metastatic cancer in the pathology scans. The highest accuracy of 71.14% was produced by the ML pipeline comprising of PCA, the genetic algorithm, and the k-nearest neighbor algorithm, suggesting that preprocessing and classification algorithms have great potential for detecting metastatic cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, principal component analysis, genetic algorithm, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree classifier, logistic regression

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Authors: Mo-Se Lee, Cheol-Hwi Ahn, Kee-Young Kwahk, Hyunchul Ahn

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Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as effective solution for recognizing and classifying images, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems in various fields. In this study, we try to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. In specific, we propose to apply CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (up or down) by using a graph as its input. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics a person who looks at the graph and predicts whether the trend will go up or down. Our proposed model consists of four steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into 5 days, 10 days, 15 days, and 20 days. And then, it creates graphs for each interval in step 2. In the next step, CNN classifiers are trained using the graphs generated in the previous step. In step 4, it optimizes the hyper parameters of the trained model by using the validation dataset. To validate our model, we will apply it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 1,986 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). The experimental dataset will include 14 technical indicators such as CCI, Momentum, ROC and daily closing price of KOSPI200 of Korean stock market.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, Korean stock market, stock market prediction

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Authors: Eleni Giouli

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Distance learning provides a flexible approach to education, enabling busy learners to complete their coursework at their own pace, on their own schedule, and from a convenient location. This flexibility combined with a series of other issues; make the benefits of lifelong distance learning numerous. The purpose of the paper is to investigate whether distance education can contribute to the improvement of adult skills in Greece, highlighting in this way the necessity of the lifelong distance learning. To investigate this goal, a questionnaire is constructed and analyzed based on responses from 3,016 attendees of lifelong distance learning programs in the e-learning of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in Greece. In order to do so, a series of relationships is examined including the effects of a) the gender, b) the previous educational level, c) the current employment status, and d) the method used in the distance learning program, on the development of new general, technical, administrative, social, cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills. The basic conclusions that emerge after using a binary logistic framework are that the following factors are critical in order to develop new skills: the gender, the education level and the educational method used in the lifelong distance learning program. The skills more significantly affected by those factors are the acquiring new skills in general, as well as acquiring general, language and cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills, while for technical and social skills only gender and educational method play a crucial role. Moreover, routine skills and social skills are not affected by the four factors included in the analysis.

Keywords: adult skills, distance learning, education, lifelong learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 126