Search results for: mixed effect logistic regression model

Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

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Authors: Emmanuel Ukpe, S. M. F. D. Syed Mustapha

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Trust in an organization has been perceived as one of the key factors behind knowledge sharing, mainly in an unstructured work environment. In an informal working environment, to instill trust among individuals is a challenge and even more in the virtual environment. The study has contributed in developing the framework for building trust in an unstructured organization in performing knowledge sharing in a virtual environment. The artifact called KAPE (Knowledge Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange) was developed for knowledge sharing for the informal organization where the framework was incorporated. It applies to Cassava farmers to facilitate knowledge sharing using web-based platform. A survey was conducted; data were collected from 382 farmers from 21 farm communities. Multiple regression technique, Cronbach’s Alpha reliability test; Tukey’s Honestly significant difference (HSD) analysis; one way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and all trust acceptable measures (TAM) were used to test the hypothesis and to determine noteworthy relationships. The results show a significant difference when there is a trust in knowledge sharing between farmers, the ones who have high in trust acceptable factors found in the model (M = 3.66 SD = .93) and the ones who have low on trust acceptable factors (M = 2.08 SD = .28), (t (48) = 5.69, p = .00). Furthermore, when applying Cognitive Expectancy Theory, the farmers with cognitive-consonance show higher level of trust and satisfaction with knowledge and information from KAPE, as compared with a low level of cognitive-dissonance. These results imply that the adopted trust model KAPE positively improved knowledge sharing activities in an informal environment amongst rural farmers.

Keywords: trust, knowledge, sharing, knowledge acquisition, processing and exchange, KAPE

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Authors: Nora A. Hamad, Ayman M. Atta, Adel A. H. Abdel-Rahman

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Two malice anhydride esters were prepared using long chain aliphatic alcohols (C8H17OH and C12H25OH, 1:1 mole ratio). Three series of crosslinked homo and copolymers of maleate esters with octadecyl acrylate and acrylic acid were prepared respectively through suspension copolymerization. The monomers were mixed with 0.02 Wt% of BP initiator, PVA 1% (170 ml for each 100g of monomers) and different weight ratios of DVB crosslinked (1% and 4%) in cyclohexane. The prepared crosslinked homo and copolymers were characterized by SEM, TGA and FTIR spectroscopic analyses. The prepared polymers were coated onto poly (ethylene terephethalate) nonwoven fiber (NWPET). The effect of copolymerization feed composition, crosslinker wt% and reaction media or solvent on swelling properties of crosslinked polymers were studied through the oil absorption tests in toluene and 10% of diluted crude oil with toluene.

Keywords: acrylic acid, crosslinked copolymers, maleate ester, poly(ethylene terephethalate) nonwoven fiber (NWPET), oil absorbency, octadecyl acrylat

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Authors: David Shengelia, Tamara Tsutsunava, Manana Togonidze, Giorgi Chichinadze, Giorgi Beridze

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Orthoclase gabbro intrusive exposes in the Eastern part of the Dzirula crystalline massif of the Central Transcaucasian microcontinent. It is intruded in the Baikal quartz-diorite gneisses as a stock-like body. The intrusive is characterized by heterogeneity of rock composition: variability of mineral content and irregular distribution of rock-forming minerals. The rocks are represented by pyroxenites, gabbro-pyroxenites and gabbros of different composition – K-feldspar, pyroxene-hornblende and biotite bearing varieties. Scientific views on the genesis and age of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive are considerably different. Based on the long-term pertogeochemical and geochronological investigations of the intrusive with such an extraordinary composition the authors came to the following conclusions. According to geological and geophysical data, it is stated that in the Saurian orogeny horizontal tectonic layering of the Earth’s crust of the Central Transcaucasian microcontinent took place. That is precisely this fact that explains the formation of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive. During the tectonic doubling of the Earth’s crust of the mentioned microcontinent thick tectonic nappes of mafic and sialic layers overlap the sialic basement (‘inversion’ layer). The initial magma of the intrusive was of high-temperature basite-ultrabasite composition, crystallization products of which are pyroxenites and gabbro-pyroxenites. Petrochemical data of the magma attest to its formation in the Upper mantle and partially in the ‘crustal astenolayer’. Then, a newly formed overheated dry magma with phenocrysts of clinopyrocxene and basic plagioclase intruded into the ‘inversion’ layer. From the new medium it was enriched by the volatile components causing the selective melting and as a result the formation of leucocratic quartz-feldspar material. At the same time in the basic magma intensive transformation of pyroxene to hornblende was going on. The basic magma partially mixed with the newly formed acid magma. These different magmas intruded first into the allochthonous basite layer without its significant transformation and then into the upper sialic layer and crystallized here at a depth of 7-10 km. By petrochemical data the newly formed leucocratic granite magma belongs to the S type granites, but the above mentioned mixed magma – to H (hybrid) type. During the final stage of magmatic processes the gabbroic rocks impregnated with high-temperature feldspar-bearing material forming anorthoclase or orthoclase. Thus, so called ‘orthoclase gabbro’ includes the rocks of various genetic groups: 1. protolith of gabbroic intrusive; 2. hybrid rock – K-feldspar gabbro and 3. leucocratic quartz-feldspar bearing rock. Petrochemical and geochemical data obtained from the hybrid gabbro and from the inrusive protolith differ from each other. For the identification of petrogenetic model of the orthoclase gabbro intrusive formation LA-ICP-MS- U-Pb zircon dating has been conducted in all three genetic types of gabbro. The zircon age of the protolith – mean 221.4±1.9 Ma and of hybrid K-feldspar gabbro – mean 221.9±2.2 Ma, records crystallization time of the intrusive, but the zircon age of quartz-feldspar bearing rocks – mean 323±2.9 Ma, as well as the inherited age (323±9, 329±8.3, 332±10 and 335±11 Ma) of hybrid K-feldspar gabbro corresponds to the formation age of Late Variscan granitoids widespread in the Dzirula crystalline massif.

Keywords: The Caucasus, isotope dating, orthoclase-bearing gabbro, petrogenetic model

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Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

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This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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Authors: Wei Lu

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With the development of information technology in China, network consumption is becoming more and more popular. As a special group, college students have a high degree of education and distinct opinions and personalities. In the future, the key groups of network consumption have gradually become the focus groups of network consumption. Studying college students’ online consumption behavior has important theoretical significance and practical value. Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) driving model and the structural equation model, this paper establishes the influencing factors model of College students’ online consumption behavior, evaluates and amends the model by using SPSS and AMOS software, analyses and determines the positive factors of marketing college students’ consumption, and provides an effective basis for guiding and promoting college student consumption.

Keywords: college students, online consumption, stimulate-organism-reaction driving model, structural equation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

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Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: artificial Intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation

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Authors: Yan Li, Qi-Fan Jia, Jie Zhou

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In today’s China, primary and secondary teachers are living a hard life with high pressure but low payment, which results in a sense of unfair and less satisfaction of life. However, teachers’ life satisfaction is a significant factor of their mental health and plays an important role in the development and progress of the society. This study was aimed to explore the effect of teachers’ perception of social justice on life satisfaction. 450 primary and secondary teachers from China were measured with life satisfaction scales, social justice scales, income satisfaction scale, job satisfaction scale, pressure condition scale, and major life event scale. Results showed their pressure is significantly higher than average, while life satisfaction, job satisfaction, income satisfaction and perceived social justice are lower. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that demographic variables, i.e., gender, age, education level and matric status, and factors related to occupation, i.e., professional title, school type and working hours per day cannot predict teachers’ life satisfaction. Teachers who had worked for 11-20 years had a lower life satisfaction compared to those with 1-5 years working experience. However, social status, monthly household income, income satisfaction, as well as job satisfaction were positively related to life satisfaction, whereas pressure condition was negatively related to it. After controlling for demographic factors and individual attitudes, social justice still had a positive effect on life satisfaction, among which distributive justice played a more important role than procedural justice. The suggestions on teachers’ condition in China and the implications for education reform to improve teachers’ mental health are discussed.

Keywords: life satisfaction, mental health, primary and secondary teachers, social justice

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Authors: Frank Frimpong Opuni, Michael Mba Allan, Kwame Adu-Gyamfi, Michael Sarkodie Baffoe

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This paper assesses the effect of relationship marketing on service quality and customer satisfaction from the perspective of the moderating role of emotional intelligence in the insurance industry in Ghana. A descriptive quantitative research technique was employed. A random sample of 384 each of customers and service providers in 3 insurance firms in Accra were used as the source of data. According to findings, emotional intelligence makes a strong positive effect on relationship marketing at 5% significance level, r (283) = .817, p = .000. Though relationship marketing makes a strong positive effect on service quality (r = .767, p < .05) and customer satisfaction (r = .647, p < .05), this effect becomes insignificant (p > .05) when the effect of emotional intelligence on relationship marketing is controlled for. It is therefore recommended that insurance firms give priority to equipping their relationship employees with emotional intelligence to maximise service quality and customer satisfaction.

Keywords: relationship marketing, service quality, customer satisfaction, emotional intelligence

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Authors: Syrus Zimaze, George Nsimbe, Valley Mugwanya, Matiya Lule, Edgar Watson, Patrick Gwayambadde

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Physical inactivity is a growing global epidemic, also recognised as a major public health challenge. Globally, there are alarming rates of children reported with cardiovascular disease and obesity with limited interventions. In Sub Saharan Africa, there is limited information about involvement in physical activity especially among children aged 6 to 18 years. The aim of this study was to explore factors associated with involvement in physical activity among children in Uganda. Methods: We included all parents with children aged 6 to 18 years training with Excel Soccer Academy between January 2017 and June 2018. Physical activity definition was time spent participating in routine soccer training at the academy for more than 30 days. Each child's attendance was recorded, and parents provided demographic and social economic data. Data on predictors of physical activity involvement were collected using a standardized questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and frequency were used. Binary logistic regression was used at the multi variable level adjusting for education, residence, transport means and access to information technology. Results: Overall 356 parents were interviewed; Boys 318 (89.3%) engaged more in physical activity than girls. The median age for children was 13 years (IQR:6-18) and 42 years (IQR:37-49) among parents. The median time spent at the Excel soccer academy was 13.4 months (IQR: 4.6-35.7) Majority of the children attended formal education, p < 0.001). Factors associated with involvement in physical activity included: owning a permanent house compared to a rented house (odds ratio [OR] :2.84: 95% CI: 2.09-3.86, p < 0.0001), owning a car compared to using public transport (OR: 5.64 CI: 4.80-6.63, p < 0.0001), a parent having received formal education compared to non-formal education (OR: 2.93 CI: 2.47-3.46, p < 0.0001) and daily access to information technology (OR:0.40 CI:0.25-0.66, p < 0.001). Parent’s age and gender were not associated to involvement in physical activity. Conclusions: Socioeconomic factors were positively associated with involvement in physical activity with boys participating more than girls in soccer activities. More interventions are required geared towards increasing girl’s participation in physical activity and those targeting children from less privilege homes.

Keywords: physical activity, Sub-Saharan Africa, social economic factors, children

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Authors: Reza Mohammadi, Mahmod R. Sahebi, Mehrnoosh Omati, Milad Vahidi

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Classification of high resolution polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) images plays an important role in land cover and land use management. Recently, classification algorithms based on Bag of Visual Words (BOVW) model have attracted significant interest among scholars and researchers in and out of the field of remote sensing. In this paper, BOVW model with pixel based low-level features has been implemented to classify a subset of San Francisco bay PolSAR image, acquired by RADARSAR 2 in C-band. We have used segment-based decision-making strategy and compared the result with the result of traditional Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. 90.95% overall accuracy of the classification with the proposed algorithm has shown that the proposed algorithm is comparable with the state-of-the-art methods. In addition to increase in the classification accuracy, the proposed method has decreased undesirable speckle effect of SAR images.

Keywords: Bag of Visual Words (BOVW), classification, feature extraction, land cover management, Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR)

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Authors: A. Karimzad Ghavidel, M. Zadshakouyan

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Laser cutting is a very common production method for cutting 2D polymeric parts. Developing of polymer composites with nano-fibers makes important their other properties like laser workability. The aim of this research is investigation of the influence different laser cutting conditions on the dimensional accuracy of parts and holes from poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA)/carbon nanotubes (CNTs) material. Experiments were carried out by considering of CNTs (in four level 0,0.5, 1 and 1.5% wt.%), laser power (60, 80, and 100 watt) and cutting speed 20, 30, and 40 mm/s as input variable factors. The results reveal that CNTs adding improves the laser workability of PMMA and the increasing of power has a significant effect on the part and hole size. The findings also show cutting speed is effective parameter on the size accuracy. Eventually, the statistical analysis of results was done, and calculated mathematical equations by the regression are presented for determining relation between input and output factor.

Keywords: dimensional accuracy, PMMA, CNTs, laser cutting

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Authors: S. Cobos-Guzman

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This paper presents the results of a mechatronic design based on a 4-wheel omnidirectional mobile robot that can be used in indoor logistic applications. The low-level control has been selected using two open-source hardware (Raspberry Pi 3 Model B+ and Arduino Mega 2560) that control four industrial motors, four ultrasound sensors, four optical encoders, a vision system of two cameras, and a Hokuyo URG-04LX-UG01 laser scanner. Moreover, the system is powered with a lithium battery that can supply 24 V DC and a maximum current-hour of 20Ah.The Robot Operating System (ROS) has been implemented in the Raspberry Pi and the performance is evaluated with the selection of the sensors and hardware selected. The mechatronic system is evaluated and proposed safe modes of power distribution for controlling all the electronic devices based on different tests. Therefore, based on different performance results, some recommendations are indicated for using the Raspberry Pi and Arduino in terms of power, communication, and distribution of control for different devices. According to these recommendations, the selection of sensors is distributed in both real-time controllers (Arduino and Raspberry Pi). On the other hand, the drivers of the cameras have been implemented in Linux and a python program has been implemented to access the cameras. These cameras will be used for implementing a deep learning algorithm to recognize people and objects. In this way, the level of intelligence can be increased in combination with the maps that can be obtained from the laser scanner.

Keywords: autonomous, indoor robot, mechatronic, omnidirectional robot

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: E. S. Kozlyakova, A. A. Eliseev, A. V. Moskin, A. Y. Akhrorov, P. S. Berdonosov, V. A. Dolgikh, K. N. Denisova, P. Lemmens, B. Rahaman, S. Das, T. Saha-Dasgupta, A. N. Vasiliev, O. S. Volkova

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Considerable attention has been paid recently to FeTe₂O₅Cl due to reduced dimensionality and frustration in the magnetic subsystem, succession of phase transitions, and multiferroicity. The efforts to grow its selenite sibling resulted in mixed halide compound, Fe(Te₁.₅Se₀.₅)O₅Cl, which was found crystallizing in a new structural type and possessing properties drastically different from those of a parent system. Hereby we report the studies of magnetization M and specific heat Cₚ, combined with Raman spectroscopy and density functional theory calculations in Fe(Te₁.₅Se₀.₅)O₅Cl. Its magnetic subsystem features weakly coupled Fe³⁺ - Fe³⁺ dimers showing the regime of short-range correlations at TM ~ 70 K and long-range order at TN = 22 K. In a magnetically ordered state, sizable spin-orbital interactions lead to a small canting of Fe³⁺ moments. The density functional theory calculations of leading exchange interactions were found in agreement with measurements of thermodynamic properties and Raman spectroscopy. Besides, because of the relatively large magnetic moment of the Fe³⁺ ion, we found that magnetic dipole-dipole interactions contribute significantly to experimentally observed orientation of magnetization easy axis in ac-plane. As a conclusion, we suggest a model of magnetic subsystem in magnetically ordered state of Fe(Te₁.₅Se₀.₅)O₅Cl based on a model of interacting dimers.

Keywords: dipole-dipole interactions, low dimensional magnetism, selenite, spin canting

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Authors: P. Ajmal Koya, Tariq Ahmad Wagay, K. Ismail

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One of the fundamental property of surfactant molecules are their ability to aggregate in water or binary mixtures of water and organic solvents as an effort to minimize their unfavourable interaction with the medium. In this work, influence two co-solvents (ethylene glycol (EG) and propylene glycol (PG)) on the aggregation properties of a cationic gemini surfactant, butanediyl-1,4-bis(tetradecyldimethylammonium bromide) (14–4–14), has been studied by conductance and steady state fluorescence at 298 K. The weight percentage of two co-solvents varied in between 0 and 50 % at an interval of 5 % up to 20 % and then 10 % up to 50 %. It was found that micellization process is delayed by the inclusion of both the co-solvents; consequently, a progressive increase was observed in critical micelle concentration (cmc) and Gibbs free energy of micellization (∆G0m), whereas a rough increase was observed in the values of degree of counter ion dissociation (α) and a decrease was obtained in values of average aggregation number (Nagg) and Stern-Volmer constant (KSV). At low weight percentage (up to 15 %) of co-solvents, 14–4–14 geminis were found to be almost equally prone to micellization both in EG–water (EG–WR) and in PG–water (PG–WR) mixed media while at high weight percentages they are more prone to micellization in EG–WR than in PG–WR mixed media.

Keywords: aggregation number, gemini surfactant, micellization, non aqueous solvent

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Authors: Waseem Al Talalwah, Shorok Al Dorazi, Roger Soames

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Persistent sciatic artery is a rare anatomical vascular variation resulting from a lack of regression of the embryonic dorsal axial artery. The axial artery is the main artery supplying the lower limb during development in the first trimester. The current research includes 206 sciatic artery cases in 171 patients between 1864 and 2012. It aims to identify the risk factor of sciatic artery aneurysm in congenital limb anomalies. Sciatic artery aneurysm was diagnosed incidentally in amniotic band syndrome (ABS) existing with no congenital anomaly in 0.7% or with double knee in 0.7%, with the tibia in 0.7% and with hemihypertrophy or soft tissue hypertrophy in 1.4%. Therefore, the current study indicates a relationship the same gene responsible for the congenital limb deformities may be responsible for non-regression of the sciatic artery. Furthermore, pediatricians should refer cases of congenital limb anomalies for vascular evaluation prior to corrective surgical intervention.

Keywords: amniotic band syndrome, congenital limb deformities, double knee, sciatic artery, sciatic artery aneurysm , soft tissue hypertrophy

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Chung Gun Lee

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Objectives: Certain life change events were shown to have strong effects on physical activity-related behavior, but more research is needed to investigate the longer-term effects of different life change events on physical activity-related behaviors. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of experiencing physically or non-physically forced sexual activity on sports participation from adolescence to young adulthood. Methods: This study used the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) data. Group-based trajectory modeling was utilized to examine the effect of experiencing sexual assault on trajectories of sports participation from adolescence to young adulthood. Results: Male participants were divided into three trajectory groups (i.e., Low-stable, High-decreasing, and High-stable) and female participants were divided into two trajectory groups (i.e., Low-stable and High-decreasing). The main finding of this study is that women who experienced non-physically forced sexual activity significantly decreases sports participation throughout the trajectory in ‘High-decreasing group.’ The effect of non-physically forced sexual activity on women’s sports participation was considerably weakened and became insignificant after including psychological depression in the model as a potential mediator. Discussion: Special attention should be paid to sport participation among women victims of non-physically forced sexual activity. Further studies are needed to examine other potential mediators in addition to psychological depression when examining the effect of non-physically forced sexual activity on sport participation in women.

Keywords: adolescent, group-based trajectory modeling, sexual assault, young adult

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Authors: Arminder Singh Walia, Vineet Srivastava, Vivek Jain

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In Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) operations, the workpiece confers to the shape of the tool. Further, the cost of the tool contributes the maximum effect on total operation cost. Therefore, the shape and profile of the tool become highly significant. Thus, in this work, an attempt has been made to study the effect of process parameters on the shape of the tool. Copper has been used as the tool material for the machining of AISI 52100 die steel. The shape of the tool has been evaluated by determining the difference in out of roundness of tool before and after machining. Statistical model has been developed and significant process parameters have been identified which affect the shape of the tool. Optimum process parameters have been identified which minimizes the shape distortion.

Keywords: discharge current, flushing pressure, pulse-on time, pulse-off time, out of roundness, electrical discharge machining

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Authors: Mohsen Amiri

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This study aimed at investigating the relationship between familial functioning, child characteristics, demographic variables and parenting stress and mental health among parents of children with mental disabilities. 200 parents (130 mothers and 70 fathers) were studied and they completed the Parenting Stress Index, General Health Questionnaire, Family Assessment Device and demographic questionnaires for parents and children. Data were analyzed using correlation and regression analysis. Regression analysis showed that child characteristics, familial functioning and parents demographic factors could predict 8, 4 and 17 percent of variance in parental stress and 3.6, 16 and 10 percent of variance in mental health, respectively. Familial functioning, child characteristics and parental demographic variables correlated with mental health and parental stress and could predict them.

Keywords: parenting stress, mental health, mentally disabled children, familial functioning, demographic variables

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics models use an agent-based modeling approach to model people’s opinions. Model's properties are usually explored by testing the two 'degrees of freedom': the interaction rule and the network topology. The latter defines the connection, and thus the possible interaction, among agents. The interaction rule, instead, determines how agents select each other and update their own opinion. Here we show the existence of the third degree of freedom. This can be used for turning one model into each other or to change the model’s output up to 100% of its initial value. Opinion dynamics models represent the evolution of real-world opinions parsimoniously. Thus, it is fundamental to know how real-world opinion (e.g., supporting a candidate) could be turned into a number. Specifically, we want to know if, by choosing a different opinion-to-number transformation, the model’s dynamics would be preserved. This transformation is typically not addressed in opinion dynamics literature. However, it has already been studied in psychometrics, a branch of psychology. In this field, real-world opinions are converted into numbers using abstract objects called 'scales.' These scales can be converted one into the other, in the same way as we convert meters to feet. Thus, in our work, we analyze how this scale transformation may affect opinion dynamics models. We perform our analysis both using mathematical modeling and validating it via agent-based simulations. To distinguish between scale transformation and measurement error, we first analyze the case of perfect scales (i.e., no error or noise). Here we show that a scale transformation may change the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. Meaning that a researcher may reach a totally different conclusion, even using the same dataset just by slightly changing the way data are pre-processed. Indeed, we quantify that this effect may alter the model’s output by 100%. By using two models from the standard literature, we show that a scale transformation can transform one model into the other. This transformation is exact, and it holds for every result. Lastly, we also test the case of using real-world data (i.e., finite precision). We perform this test using a 7-points Likert scale, showing how even a small scale change may result in different predictions or a number of opinion clusters. Because of this, we think that scale transformation should be considered as a third-degree of freedom for opinion dynamics. Indeed, its properties have a strong impact both on theoretical models and for their application to real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

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Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

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Authors: Alemayehu Muluneh, Saskia Keesstra, Leo Stroosnijder, Woldeamlak Bewket, Ashenafi Burka

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There are some scientific evidences and a belief by many that forests attract rain and deforestation contributes to a decline of rainfall. However, there is still a lack of concrete scientific evidence on the role of forests in rainfall amount. In this paper, we investigate the forest-rainfall relationships in the environmentally hot spot area of the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Specifically, we evaluate long term (1970-2009) rainfall variability and its relationship with historical forest cover and the relationship between existing forest cover and topographical variables and rainfall distribution. The study used 16 long term and 15 short term rainfall stations. The Mann-Kendall test, bi variate and multiple regression models were used. The results show forest and wood land cover continuously declined over the 40 years period (1970-2009), but annual rainfall in the rift valley floor increased by 6.42 mm/year. But, on the escarpment and highlands, annual rainfall decreased by 2.48 mm/year. The increase in annual rainfall in the rift valley floor is partly attributable to the increase in evaporation as a result of increasing temperatures from the 4 existing lakes in the rift valley floor. Though, annual rainfall is decreasing on the escarpment and highlands, there was no significant correlation between this rainfall decrease and forest and wood land decline and also rainfall variability in the region was not explained by forest cover. Hence, the decrease in annual rainfall on the escarpment and highlands is likely related to the global warming of the atmosphere and the surface waters of the Indian Ocean. Spatial variability of number of rainy days from systematically observed two-year’s rainfall data (2012-2013) was significantly (R2=-0.63) explained by forest cover (distance from forest). But, forest cover was not a significant variable (R2=-0.40) in explaining annual rainfall amount. Generally, past deforestation and existing forest cover showed very little effect on long term and short term rainfall distribution, but a significant effect on number of rainy days in the CRV of Ethiopia.

Keywords: elevation, forest cover, rainfall, slope

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Authors: Soni Nopembri

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The objective of this research is to evaluate the implementation of teaching games for Understanding model by conducting action to physical education teacher who have got long teaching experience. The research applied Participatory Action Research. The subjects of this research were 19 physical education teachers who had got training of Teaching Games for Understanding. Data collection was conducted intensively through a questionnaire, in-depth interview, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), observation, and documentation. The collected data was analysis zed qualitatively and quantitatively. The result showed that physical education teachers had got an appropriate interpretation on TGfU model. Some indicators that were the focus of this research indicated this points; they are: (1) physical education teachers had good understanding toward TGfU model, (2) PE teachers’ competence in applying TGfU model on Physical Education at school were adequate, though some improvement were needed, (3) the influence factors in the implementation of TGfU model, in sequence, were teacher, facilities, environment, and students factors, (4) PE teachers’ perspective toward TGfU model were positively good, although some teachers were less optimistic toward the development of TGfU model in the future.

Keywords: TGfU, physical education teacher, teaching games, FGD

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Authors: Mahdi Shaghaghi, Amir Ghaebi, Fariba Ahmadi

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Purpose: The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the knowledge creation environment at a Iranian University (Alzahra University) as a typical University in Iran, using a combination of the i-System and Ba models. This study is necessary for understanding the determinants of knowledge creation at Alzahra University as a typical University in Iran. Methodology: To carry out the present research, which is an applied study in terms of purpose, a descriptive survey method was used. In this study, a combination of the i-System and Ba models has been used to analyze the knowledge creation environment at Alzahra University. i-System consists of 5 constructs including intervention (input), intelligence (process), involvement (process), imagination (process), and integration (output). The Ba environment has three pillars, namely the infrastructure, the agent, and the information. The integration of these two models resulted in 11 constructs which were as follows: intervention (input), infrastructure-intelligence, agent-intelligence, information-intelligence (process); infrastructure-involvement, agent-involvement, information-involvement (process); infrastructure-imagination, agent-imagination, information-imagination (process); and integration (output). These 11 constructs were incorporated into a 52-statement questionnaire and the validity and reliability of the questionnaire were examined and confirmed. The statistical population included the faculty members of Alzahra University (344 people). A total of 181 participants were selected through the stratified random sampling technique. The descriptive statistics, binomial test, regression analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM) methods were also utilized to analyze the data. Findings: The research findings indicated that among the 11 research constructs, the levels of intervention, information-intelligence, infrastructure-involvement, and agent-imagination constructs were average and not acceptable. The levels of infrastructure-intelligence and information-imagination constructs ranged from average to low. The levels of agent-intelligence and information-involvement constructs were also completely average. The level of infrastructure-imagination construct was average to high and thus was considered acceptable. The levels of agent-involvement and integration constructs were above average and were in a highly acceptable condition. Furthermore, the regression analysis results indicated that only two constructs, viz. the information-imagination and agent-involvement constructs, positively and significantly correlate with the integration construct. The results of the structural equation modeling also revealed that the intervention, intelligence, and involvement constructs are related to the integration construct with the complete mediation of imagination. Discussion and conclusion: The present research suggests that knowledge creation at Alzahra University relatively complies with the combination of the i-System and Ba models. Unlike this model, the intervention, intelligence, and involvement constructs are not directly related to the integration construct and this seems to have three implications: 1) the information sources are not frequently used to assess and identify the research biases; 2) problem finding is probably of less concern at the end of studies and at the time of assessment and validation; 3) the involvement of others has a smaller role in the summarization, assessment, and validation of the research.

Keywords: i-System, Ba model , knowledge creation , knowledge management, knowledge creation environment, Iranian Universities

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Authors: Marzieh Zarei

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Well instability is one of the most fundamental challenges faced by the oil and gas industry. Well wall stability analysis is a gap to be filled in the oil industry. The collection of static data such as well logging leads to the construction of a geomechanical numerical model, which will help in assessing the probable risks in future drilling. In this paper, geomechanical model was designed, and mechanical properties of the rock was determined at all points of the model. It was found the safe mud window was determined and the minimum and maximum mud pressures were determined in the ranges of 70-60 MPa and 110-100 MPa, respectively.

Keywords: geomechanics, numerical model, well stability, in-situ stress, underbalanced drilling

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Authors: Jeeban Amgain

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This paper investigates the impact of the size and composition of government expenditure and tax on GDP per capita growth in 36 Asian economies over the period of 1991-2012. The research employs the technique of panel regression; Fixed Effects and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as well as other statistical and descriptive approaches. The finding concludes that the size of government expenditure and tax revenue are generally low in this region. GDP per capita growth is strongly negative in response to Government expenditure, however, no significant relationship can be measured in case of size of taxation although it is positively correlated with economic growth. Panel regression of decomposed fiscal components also shows that the pattern of allocation of expenditure and taxation really matters on growth. Taxes on international trade and property have a significant positive impact on growth. In contrast, a major portion of expenditure, i.e. expenditure on general public services, health and education are found to have significant negative impact on growth, implying that government expenditures are not being productive in the Asian region for some reasons. Comparatively smaller and efficient government size would enhance the growth.

Keywords: government expenditure, tax, GDP per capita growth, composition

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Authors: Awol Mekonnen, Temesgen Sidamo, Epherm Engdawork, Kaleab Asresb

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Ethnopharmacological Relevance: The leaves of Kalanchoe petitiana A. Rich (Crassulaceae) are used in Ethiopian folk medicine for treatment of evil eye, fractured surface for bone setting and several skin disorders including for the treatment of sores, boils, and malignant wounds. Aim of the Study: In order to scientifically prove the claimed utilization of the plant, the effects of the extracts and the fractions were investigated using in vivo excision, incision and dead space wound models. Materials and Method: Mice were used for wound healing study, while rats and rabbit were used for skin irritation test. For studying healing activity, 80% methanolic extract and the fractions were formulated in strength of 5% and 10%, either as ointment (hydroalcoholic extract, aqueous and methanol fractions) or gel (chloroform fraction). Oral administration of the crude extract was used for dead space model. Negative controls were treated either with simple ointment or sodium carboxyl methyl cellulose xerogel, while positive controls were treated with nitrofurazone (0.2 w/v) skin ointment. Negative controls for dead space model were treated with 1% carboxy methyl cellulose. Parameters, including rate of wound contraction, period of complete epithelializtion, hydroxyproline contents and skin breaking strength were evaluated. Results: Significant wound healing activity was observed with ointment formulated from the crude extract at both 5% and 10% concentration (p<0.01) compared to controls in both excision and incision models. In dead space model, 600 mg/kg (p<0.01), but not 300 mg/kg, significantly increased hydroxyproline content. Fractions showed variable effect, with the chloroform fraction lacking any significant effect. Both 5% and 10% formulations of the aqueous and methanolic fractions significantly increased wound contraction, decreased epithelializtion time and increased hydroxyproline content in excision wound model (p<0.05) as compared to controls. These fractions were also endowed with higher skin breaking strength in incision wound model (p<0.01). Conclusions: The present study provided evidence that the leaves of Kalanchoe petitiana A. Rich possess remarkable wound healing activities supporting the folkloric assertion of the plant. Fractionation revealed that polar or semi-polar compound may play vital role, as both aqueous and methanolic fractions were endowed with wound healing activity.

Keywords: wound healing, Kalanchoae petitiana, excision wound, incision wound, dead space model

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Authors: Bencheikh Abdellah

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In this paper, we present a mathematical model dedicated to the simulation breaks bars in a three-phase cage induction motor. This model is based on a mesh circuit representing the rotor cage. The tested simulation allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model to describe the behavior of the machine in a healthy state, failure.

Keywords: AC motors, squirrel cage, diagnostics, MATLAB, SIMULINK

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Authors: Oleg Oborin

Abstract:

This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

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Authors: Jingwei Wang, Anthony G. Fane, Jia Wei Chew

Abstract:

The use of fluidized Granular Activated Carbon (GAC) as a means of mitigation membrane fouling in membrane bioreactors (MBRs) has received much attention in recent years, especially in anaerobic fluidized bed membrane bioreactors (AFMBRs). It has been affirmed that the unsteady-state tangential shear conferred by GAC fluidization on membrane surface suppressed the extent of membrane fouling with energy consumption much lower than that of bubbling (i.e., air sparging). In a previous work, the hydrodynamics of the fluidized GAC particles were correlated with membrane fouling mitigation effectiveness. Results verified that the momentum transfer from particle to membrane held a key in fouling mitigation. The goal of the current work is to understand the effect of fluidized GAC on membrane critical flux. Membrane critical flux values were measured by a vertical Direct Observation Through the Membrane (DOTM) setup. The polystyrene particles (known as latex particles) with the particle size of 5 µm were used as model foulant thus to give the number of the foulant on the membrane surface. Our results shed light on the positive effect of fluidized GAC enhancing the critical membrane flux by an order-of-magnitude as compared to that of liquid shear alone. Membrane fouling mitigation was benefitted by the increasing of power input.

Keywords: membrane fouling mitigation, liquid-solid fluidization, critical flux, energy input

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