Search results for: risk prediction model

Authors: Babak H. Tabrizi, Seyed Farid Ghaderi

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Concurrent planning of project scheduling and material ordering can provide more flexibility to the project scheduling problem, as the project execution costs can be enhanced. Hence, the issue has been taken into account in this paper. To do so, a mixed-integer mathematical model is developed which considers the aforementioned flexibility, in addition to the materials quantity discount and space availability restrictions. Moreover, the activities duration has been treated as decision variables. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed model is tested by different instances. Additionally, the influence of the aforementioned parameters is investigated on the model performance.

Keywords: material ordering, project scheduling, quantity discount, space availability

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Authors: Krutika K. Sawant, Anil Solanki

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The present study deals with the preparation and optimization of ethyl cellulose-containing disopyramide phosphate loaded microspheres using solvent evaporation technique. A central composite design consisting of a two-level full factorial design superimposed on a star design was employed for optimizing the preparation microspheres. The drug:polymer ratio (X1) and speed of the stirrer (X2) were chosen as the independent variables. The cumulative release of the drug at a different time (2, 6, 10, 14, and 18 hr) was selected as the dependent variable. An optimum polynomial equation was generated for the prediction of the response variable at time 10 hr. Based on the results of multiple linear regression analysis and F statistics, it was concluded that sustained action can be obtained when X1 and X2 are kept at high levels. The X1X2 interaction was found to be statistically significant. The drug release pattern fitted the Higuchi model well. The data of a selected batch were subjected to an optimization study using Box-Behnken design, and an optimal formulation was fabricated. Good agreement was observed between the predicted and the observed dissolution profiles of the optimal formulation.

Keywords: disopyramide phosphate, ethyl cellulose, microspheres, controlled release, Box-Behnken design, factorial design

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Authors: Murat Gunduz, Mustafa Ozdemir

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In this research, a framework is to be proposed to model the safety performance in construction sites. Determinants of safety performance are to be defined through extensive literature review and a multidimensional safety performance model is to be developed. In this context, a questionnaire is to be administered to construction companies with sites. The collected data through questionnaires including linguistic terms are then to be defuzzified to get concrete numbers by using fuzzy set theory which provides strong and significant instruments for the measurement of ambiguities and provides the opportunity to meaningfully represent concepts expressed in the natural language. The validity of the proposed safety performance model, relationships between determinants of safety performance are to be analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) which is a highly strong multi variable analysis technique that makes possible the evaluation of latent structures. After validation of the model, a safety performance index assessment tool is to be proposed by the help of software. The proposed safety performance assessment tool will be based on the empirically validated theoretical model.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, safety performance assessment, safety index, structural equation modeling (SEM), construction sites

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Authors: Hala M. El-hanbuli, Mohammed F. Darweesh

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The incidence rates of any tumor vary hugely with geographical location. Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC) is one of the most common skin cancer that has many histopathologic subtypes. Objective: The aim was to study the histopathological features of BCC cases that were received in the Pathology Department, Kasr El-Aini hospital, Cairo University, Egypt during the period from Jan 2004 to Dec 2013 and to evaluate the clinical characters through the patient data available in the request sheets. Methods: Slides and data of BCC cases were collected from the archives of the pathology department, Kasr El-Aini hospital. Revision of all available slides and histological classification of BCC according to WHO (2006) was done. Results: A total number of 310 cases of BCC representing about 65% from the total number of malignant skin tumors examined during the 10-years duration in the department. The age ranged from 8 to 84 years, the mean age was (55.7 ± 15.5). Most of the patients (85%) were above the age of 40 years. There was a slight male predominance (55%). Ulcerated BCC was the most common gross picture (60%), followed by nodular lesion (30%) and finally the ulcerated nodule (10%). Most of the lesions situated in the high-risk sites (77%) where the nose was the most common site (35%) followed by the periocular area (22%), then periauricular (15%) and finally perioral (5%). No lesion was reported outside the head. The tumor size was less than 2 centimeters in 65% of cases, and from 2-5 centimeters in the lesions' greatest dimension in the rest of cases. Histopathological reclassification revealed that the nodular BCC was the most common (68%) followed by the pigmented nodular (18.75%). The histologic high-risk groups represented (7.5%) about half of them (3.75%) being basosquamous carcinoma. The total incidence for multiple BCC and 2nd primary was 12%. Recurrent BCC represented 8%. All of the recurrent lesions of BCC belonged to the histologic high-risk group. Conclusion: Basal Cell Carcinoma is the most common skin cancer in the 10-year survey. Histopathological diagnosis and classification of BCC cases are essential for the determination of the tumor type and its biological behavior.

Keywords: basal cell carcinoma, high risk, histopathological features, statistical analysis

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Authors: Min Kyung An

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In this paper, we study the data collection problem in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) adopting the two interference models: The graph model and the more realistic physical interference model known as Signal-to-Interference-Noise-Ratio (SINR). The main issue of the problem is to compute schedules with the minimum number of timeslots, that is, to compute the minimum latency schedules, such that data from every node can be collected without any collision or interference to a sink node. While existing works studied the problem with unit-sized and unbounded-sized message models, we investigate the problem with the bounded-sized message model, and introduce a constant factor approximation algorithm. To the best known of our knowledge, our result is the first result of the data collection problem with bounded-sized model in both interference models.

Keywords: data collection, collision-free, interference-free, physical interference model, SINR, approximation, bounded-sized message model, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Jaroslav Krutil, František Pochylý, Simona Fialová, Vladimír Habán

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A mathematical model of the additional effects of the liquid in the hydrodynamic gap is presented in the paper. An in-compressible viscous fluid is considered. Based on computational modeling are determined the matrices of mass, stiffness and damping. The mathematical model is experimentally verified.

Keywords: computational modeling, mathematical model, hydrodynamic gap, matrices of mass, stiffness and damping

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Authors: Raptis Sotirios

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Health and social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms assist healthcare managers’ to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as CART, random forests (RF), and logistic regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared test and Student test are used on data over a 39 years span for which HSc services data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are probabilistically associated through statistical hypotheses that assume that the target service’s demands are statistically dependent on other demands as a NULL hypothesis. This linkage can be confirmed or not by the data. Complementarily, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus groups of services. Statistical tests confirm ML couplings making the prediction also statistically meaningful and prove that a target service can be matched reliably to other services, and ML shows these indicated relationships can also be linear ones. Zero paddings were used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and in the entire span offering long term data visualizations while limited years groups explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods or can change over time as opposed to behaviors across more years. The prediction performance of the associations is measured using Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) AUC and ACC metrics as well as the statistical tests, Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for RF, CART, and LGR as well as p-values and Information Exchange(IE), are provided showing the specific behavior of the ML and of the statistical tests and the behavior using different learning ratios. The impact of k-NN and cross-correlation and C-Means first groupings is also studied over limited years and the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR, but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC=0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912, showing that ML methods can be confused padding or by data irregularities or outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing RF well, and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only if when significance level(p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited years, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed using statistical hypotheses.

Keywords: class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, prob-ability, services

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Authors: G. R. Constantine, M.C.K. Thilakasiri, V.S. Mohottala, T.V. Soundaram, D.S. Rathnayake, E.G.H.E. De Silva, A.L.S. Mohamed, V.R. Weerasekara

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Orthostatic hypotension is prevalent in the elderly population, and it is an important risk factor contributing to falls in the elderly. This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of orthostatic hypotension in hospitalized elderly patients, changes in blood pressure during the hospital stay, morbidities associated with it and its association with falls in the elderly. A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in the National Hospital of Sri Lanka (NHSL) in a sample of 120 patients of age 65 years or above who were admitted to the medical wards. The demographic, clinical data was obtained by an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Two validated questionnaires were used to assess symptoms and effects of orthostatic hypotension and risk factors associated with falls. Orthostatic hypotension on admission and after 3 days of hospital stay was measured by bed-side mercury sphygmomanometer. Prevalence of orthostatic hypotension among the study population was 63.3%(76 patients). But no significant change in the orthostatic hypotension noted after 3 days of hospital admission (SND 0.61, SE= 5.59, p=0.27). There was no significant association found between orthostatic hypotension and its symptoms (dizziness and vertigo, vision problems, malaise, fatigue, poor concentration, neck stiffness), impact on standing or walking and non-communicable diseases. Falls were experienced by 27.5 % (33 patients) of the study population and prevalence of patients with orthostatic hypotension who had experienced falls was 25.9% (28 patients). In conclusions, orthostatic hypotension is more prevalent among elderly patients, but It wasn’t associated with symptoms, and non-communicable diseases, or as a risk factor for falls in elderly.

Keywords: orthostatic hypotension, elderly falls, emergency geriatric, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Md. Jahoor Alam

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Recent studies suggest that Glucose controls several lifesaving pathways. Glucose molecule is reported to be responsible for the production of ROS (reactive oxygen species). In the present work, a p53-MDM2-Glucose model is developed in order to study spatiotemporal properties of the p53 pathway. The systematic model is mathematically described. The model is numerically simulated using high computational facility. It is observed that the variation in glucose concentration level triggers the system at different states, namely, oscillation death (stabilized), sustain and damped oscillations which correspond to various cellular states. The transition of these states induced by glucose is phase transition-like behaviour. Further, the amplitude of p53 dynamics with the variation of glucose concentration level follows power law behaviour, As(k) ~ kϒ, where, ϒ is a constant. Further Stochastic approach is needed for understanding of realistic behaviour of the model. The present model predicts the variation of p53 states under the influence of glucose molecule which is also supported by experimental facts reported by various research articles.

Keywords: oscillation, temporal behavior, p53, glucose

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Authors: Emiliano Lustrissimi, Bonifacio Bianco, Sebastiano Caravaggi, Antonio Rosato

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A mathematical framework has been designed to enhance the configuration of an end-of-production-line (EOL) test bench. This system can be used to assess the performance of electric motors or axles intended for electric vehicles. The model has been developed to predict the behaviour of EOL test benches and electric motors/axles under various boundary conditions, eliminating the need for extensive physical testing and reducing the corresponding power consumption. The suggested model is versatile, capable of being utilized across various types of electric motors or axles, and adaptable to accommodate varying power ratings of electric motors or axles. The maximum performance to be guaranteed by the EMs according to the car maker's specifications are taken as inputs in the model. Then, the required performance of each main EOL test bench component is calculated, and the corresponding systems available on the market are selected based on manufacturers’ catalogues. In this study, an EOL test bench has been designed according to the proposed model outputs for testing a low-power (about 22 kW) electric axle. The performance of the designed EOL test bench has been measured and used to validate the proposed model and assess both the consistency of the constraints as well as the accuracy of predictions in terms of electric demands. The comparison between experimental and predicted data exhibited a reasonable agreement, allowing to demonstrate that, despite some discrepancies, the model gives an accurate representation of the EOL test benches' performance.

Keywords: electric motors, electric vehicles, end-of-production-line test bench, mathematical model, field tests

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Authors: Yuan Zheng

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3D model-based vehicle matching provides a new way for vehicle recognition, localization and tracking. Its key is to construct an evaluation function, also called fitness function, to measure the degree of vehicle matching. The existing fitness functions often poorly perform when the clutter and occlusion exist in traffic scenarios. In this paper, we present a practical and efficient fitness function. Unlike the existing evaluation functions, the proposed fitness function is to study the vehicle matching problem from both local and global perspectives, which exploits the pixel gradient information as well as the silhouette information. In view of the discrepancy between 3D vehicle model and real vehicle, a weighting strategy is introduced to differently treat the fitting of the model’s wireframes. Additionally, a normalization operation for the model’s projection is performed to improve the accuracy of the matching. Experimental results on real traffic videos reveal that the proposed fitness function is efficient and robust to the cluttered background and partial occlusion.

Keywords: 3D-2D matching, fitness function, 3D vehicle model, local image gradient, silhouette information

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: M. Kamal M. Shah, Noorhifiantylaily Ahmad, O. Irma Wani, J. Sahari

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This paper presents the computationally mechanics analysis of energy absorption for cylindrical and square thin wall tubed structure by using ABAQUS/explicit. The crashworthiness behavior of AISI 1020 mild steel thin-walled tube under axial loading has been studied. The influence effects of different model’s cross-section, as well as model length on the crashworthiness behavior of thin-walled tube, are investigated. The model was placed on loading platform under axial loading with impact velocity of 5 m/s to obtain the deformation results of each model under quasi-static loading. The results showed that model undergoes different deformation mode exhibits different energy absorption performance.

Keywords: axial loading, computational mechanics, energy absorption performance, crashworthiness behavior, deformation mode

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Ahmed BenSaïda

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This paper investigates the association between financial technology (FinTech) growth and bank performance in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Application is conducted on a panel dataset containing the annual observations of banks covering the period from 2012 to 2021. FinTech growth is set as an explanatory variable on three proxies of bank performance. These proxies are the return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and net interest margin (NIM). Moreover, several control variables are added to the model, including bank-specific and macroeconomic variables. The results are significant as all the proxies of the bank performance are negatively affected by the growth of FinTech startups. Consequently, banks are urged to proactively invest in FinTech startups and engage in partnerships to avoid the risk of disruption.

Keywords: financial technology, bank performance, GCC countries, panel regression

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Authors: M. Safa, A. Sabet, S. MacGillivray, M. Davidson, K. Kaczmarczyk, C. T. Haas, G. E. Gibson, D. Rayside

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To address construction project requirements and specifications, scholars and practitioners need to establish a taxonomy according to a scheme that best fits their need. While existing characterization methods are continuously being improved, new ones are devised to cover project properties which have not been previously addressed. One such method, the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI), has received limited consideration strictly as a classification scheme. Developed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII) in 1996, the PDRI has been refined over the last two decades as a method for evaluating a project's scope definition completeness during front-end planning (FEP). The main contribution of this study is a review of practical project classification methods, and a discussion of how PDRI can be used to classify projects based on their readiness in the FEP phase. The proposed model has been applied to 59 construction projects in Ontario, and the results are discussed.

Keywords: project classification, project definition rating index (PDRI), risk, project goals alignment

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Authors: Katharina Eberhardt, Florian Klaus Kaiser, Frank Schultmann

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Last-mile distribution is one of the most critical parts of a disaster relief operation. Various uncertainties, such as infrastructure conditions, resource availability, and fluctuating beneficiary demand, render last-mile distribution challenging in disaster relief operations. The need to balance critical performance criteria like response time, meeting demand and cost-effectiveness further complicates the task. The occurrence of disasters cannot be controlled, and the magnitude is often challenging to assess. In summary, these uncertainties create a need for additional flexibility, agility, and preparedness in logistics operations. As a result, strategic planning and efficient network design are critical for an effective and efficient response. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of disasters and the rising cost of logistical operations amplify the need to provide robust and resilient solutions in this area. Therefore, we formulate a scenario-based bi-objective optimization model that integrates pre-positioning, allocation, and distribution of relief supplies extending the general form of a covering location problem. The proposed model aims to minimize underlying logistics costs while maximizing demand coverage. Using a set of disruption scenarios, the model allows decision-makers to identify optimal network solutions to address the risk of disruptions. We provide an empirical case study of the public authorities’ emergency food storage strategy in Germany to illustrate the potential applicability of the model and provide implications for decision-makers in a real-world setting. Also, we conduct a sensitivity analysis focusing on the impact of varying stockpile capacities, single-site outages, and limited transportation capacities on the objective value. The results show that the stockpiling strategy needs to be consistent with the optimal number of depots and inventory based on minimizing costs and maximizing demand satisfaction. The strategy has the potential for optimization, as network coverage is insufficient and relies on very high transportation and personnel capacity levels. As such, the model provides decision support for public authorities to determine an efficient stockpiling strategy and distribution network and provides recommendations for increased resilience. However, certain factors have yet to be considered in this study and should be addressed in future works, such as additional network constraints and heuristic algorithms.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, bi-objective optimization, pre-positioning, last mile distribution, decision support, disaster relief networks

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Authors: Kaouther Selmi, Alaeddine Sridi, Mohamed Bouallegue, Kais Bouallegue

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Neurons are the fundamental units of the brain and the nervous system. The variable structure model of neurons consists of a system of differential equations with various parameters. By optimizing these parameters, we can create a unique model that describes the dynamic behavior of a single neuron. We introduce a neural network based on neurons with multiple dendrites employing an activation function with a variable structure. In this paper, we present a model for heart behavior. Finally, we showcase our successful simulation of the heart's ECG diagram using our Variable Structure Neuron Model (VSMN). This result could provide valuable insights into cardiology.

Keywords: neural networks, neuron, dendrites, heart behavior, ECG

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Authors: Chothmal, Basant Agarwal

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Sentiment analysis means to classify a given review document into positive or negative polar document. Sentiment analysis research has been increased tremendously in recent times due to its large number of applications in the industry and academia. Sentiment analysis models can be used to determine the opinion of the user towards any entity or product. E-commerce companies can use sentiment analysis model to improve their products on the basis of users’ opinion. In this paper, we propose a new One-class Support Vector Machine (One-class SVM) based sentiment analysis model for movie review documents. In the proposed approach, we initially extract features from one class of documents, and further test the given documents with the one-class SVM model if a given new test document lies in the model or it is an outlier. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed sentiment analysis model.

Keywords: feature selection methods, machine learning, NB, one-class SVM, sentiment analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Loreine Makki, Marc Anthony Mannah, Christophe Batard, Nicolas Ginot, Julien Weckbrodt

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Planar transformers are extensively utilized in high-frequency, high power density power electronic converters. The breakthrough of wide-bandgap technology compelled power electronic system miniaturization while inducing pivotal effects on system modeling and manufacturing within the power electronics industry. A significant consideration to simulate and model the unanticipated parasitic parameters emerges with the requirement to mitigate electromagnetic disturbances. This paper will present an equivalent circuit model of a shielded pulse planar transformer quantifying leakage inductance and resistance in addition to the interwinding capacitance of the primary and secondary windings. ANSYS Q3D Extractor was utilized to model and simulate the transformer, intending to study the immunity of the simulated equivalent model to high dv/dt occurrences. A convenient correlation between simulation and experimental results is presented.

Keywords: Planar transformers, wide-band gap, equivalent circuit model, shielded, ANSYS Q3D Extractor, dv/dt

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Authors: Hongmin Chun

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This paper examines corporate cash holdings and their effect on the cost of equity capital. In addition, this study examines the potentially different effects when the firm belongs to chaebol and non-chaebol groups. Chaebol is a South Korean form of business conglomerate. Chaebol is typically global multinationals and owns numerous international enterprises, controlled by a chairman with power over all the operations. The overall empirical result suggests that higher cash holdings are a risk increasing factor which holds for the chaebol group of firms. This result is valid in a battery of robustness tests and 2SLS regressions. In Korea, higher cash holdings represent a risk premium factor that is closely related to the overinvestment and agency problems between managers and shareholders.

Keywords: cash holdings, implied cost of equity capital, chaebol, agency problem

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Authors: Nabiha Bouafia, Asma Ben Cheikh, Asma Ammar, Olfa Ezzi, Mohamed Mahjoub, Khaoula Meddeb, Imed Chouchene, Hamadi Boussarsar, Mansour Njah

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Background: Hospital acquired infections (HAI) cause significant morbidity, mortality, length of stay and hospital costs, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), because of the debilitated immune systems of their patients and exposure to invasive devices. The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the risk factors of HAI in an ICU of a university hospital in Tunisia. Materials/Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the 8-bed adult medical ICU of a University Hospital (Sousse Tunisia) during 14 months from September 15th, 2015 to November 15th, 2016. Patients admitted for more than 48h were included. Their surveillance was stopped after the discharge from ICU or death. HAIs were defined according to standard Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study, 192 patients had admitted for more than 48 hours. Their mean age was 59.3± 18.20 years and 57.1% were male. Acute respiratory failure was the main reason of admission (72%). The mean SAPS II score calculated at admission was 32.5 ± 14 (range: 6 - 78). The exposure to the mechanical ventilation (MV) and the central venous catheter were observed in 169 (88 %) and 144 (75 %) patients, respectively. Seventy-three patients (38.02%) developed 94 HAIs. The incidence density of HAIs was 41.53 per 1000 patient day. Mortality rate in patients with HAIs was 65.8 %( n= 48). Regarding the type of infection, Ventilator Associated Pneumoniae (VAP) and central venous catheter Associated Infections (CVC AI) were the most frequent with Incidence density: 14.88/1000 days of MV for VAP and 20.02/1000 CVC days for CVC AI. There were 5 Peripheral Venous Catheter Associated Infections, 2 urinary tract infections, and 21 other HAIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common germs identified in HAIs: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumanii (45%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.96%) were the most frequently isolated. Univariate analysis showed that transfer from another hospital department (p= 0.001), intubation (p < 10-4), tracheostomy (p < 10-4), age (p=0.028), grade of acute respiratory failure (p=0.01), duration of sedation (p < 10-4), number of CVC (p < 10-4), length of mechanical ventilation (p < 10-4) and length of stay (p < 10-4), were associated to high risk of HAIS in ICU. Multivariate analysis reveals that independent risk factors for HAIs are: transfer from another hospital department: OR=13.44, IC 95% [3.9, 44.2], p < 10-4, duration of sedation: OR= 1.18, IC 95% [1.049, 1.325], p=0.006, high number of CVC: OR=2.78, IC 95% [1.73, 4.487], p < 10-4, and length of stay in ICU: OR= 1.14, IC 95% [1.066,1.22], p < 10-4. Conclusion: Prevention of nosocomial infections in ICUs is a priority of health care systems all around the world. Yet, their control requires an understanding of epidemiological data collected in these units.

Keywords: healthcare associated infections, incidence, intensive care unit, risk factors

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Authors: Zahraa Albasry, Hadeel D. Najim, Anmar Al-Taie

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Background: Hypertension is considered as one of the most important causes of cardiovascular complications and one of the leading causes of worldwide mortality. Identifying the potential risk factors associated with this medical health problem plays an important role in minimizing its incidence and related complications. The objective of this study is to explore the prevalence of receptor sensitivity regarding assess and understand the perception of specific predictive confounding factors on the prevalence of hypertension (HT) among a sample of Iraqi population in Baghdad, Iraq. Materials and Methods: A randomized cross sectional study was carried out on 100 adult subjects during their visit to the outpatient clinic at a certain sector of Baghdad Province, Iraq. Demographic, clinical and health records alongside specific screening and laboratory tests of the participants were collected and analyzed to detect the potential of confounding factors on the prevalence of HT. Results: 63% of the study participants suffered from HT, most of them were female patients (P < 0.005). Patients aged between 41-50 years old significantly suffered from HT than other age groups (63.5%, P < 0.001). 88.9% of the participants were obese (P < 0.001) and 47.6% had diabetes with HT. Positive family history and sedentary lifestyle were significantly higher among all hypertensive groups (P < 0.05). High salt and fatty food intake was significantly found among patients suffered from isolated systolic hypertension (ISHT) (P < 0.05). A significant positive correlation between packed cell volume (PCV) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) (r = 0.353, P = 0.048) found among normotensive participants. Among hypertensive patients, a positive significant correlation found between triglycerides (TG) and both SBP (r = 0.484, P = 0.031) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (r = 0.463, P = 0.040), while low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-c) showed a positive significant correlation with DBP (r = 0.443, P = 0.021). Conclusion: The prevalence of HT among Iraqi populations is of major concern. Further consideration is required to detect the impact of potential risk factors and to minimize blood pressure (BP) elevation and reduce the risk of other cardiovascular complications later in life.

Keywords: Correlation, Hypertension, Iraq, Risk factors

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Authors: Kanica Goel, Nilam

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Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide and hence a great challenge for every nation. Thus, it becomes utmost essential to prevent and reduce the spread of infectious disease among humans. Mathematical models help to better understand the transmission dynamics and spread of infections. For this purpose, in the present article, we have proposed a nonlinear time-delayed SVIRS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) mathematical model with nonlinear type incidence rate and nonlinear type treatment rate. Analytical study of the model shows that model exhibits two types of equilibrium points, namely, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Further, for the long-term behavior of the model, stability of the model is discussed with the help of basic reproduction number R₀ and we showed that disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one and unstable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is greater than one for the time lag τ≥0. Furthermore, when basic reproduction number R₀ is one, using center manifold theory and Casillo-Chavez and Song theorem, we showed that the model undergoes transcritical bifurcation. Moreover, numerical simulations are being carried out using MATLAB 2012b to illustrate the theoretical results.

Keywords: nonlinear incidence rate, nonlinear treatment rate, stability, time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

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Authors: Ridha Salhi, Mondher Labidi, Fethi Choubani

Abstract:

Metamaterials have attracted much attention in recent years because of their electromagnetic exquisite proprieties. We will present, in this paper, the modeling of three metamaterial structures by equivalent circuit model. We begin by modeling the SRR (Split Ring Resonator), then we model the HIS (High Impedance Surfaces), and finally, we present the model of the CPW (Coplanar Wave Guide). In order to validate models, we compare the results obtained by an equivalent circuit models with numerical simulation.

Keywords: metamaterials, SRR, HIS, CPW, IDC

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Authors: Mariem Saadi, Sabri Kanzari, Adel Zghibi

Abstract:

In semi-arid areas like the Kairouan region, the constant irrigation with saline water and the overuse of groundwater resources, soils and aquifers salinization has become an increasing concern. In this study, a methodology has been developed to evaluate the groundwater contamination risk based on the unsaturated zone hydraulic properties. Two soil profiles with different ranges of salinity, one located in the north of the plain and another one in the south of plain (each 30 m deep) and both characterized by direct recharge of the aquifer were chosen. Simulations were conducted with Hydrus-1D code using measured precipitation data for the period 1998-2003 and calculated evapotranspiration for both chosen profiles. Four combinations of initial conditions of water content and salt concentration were used for the simulation process in order to find the best match between simulated and measured values. The success of the calibration of Hydrus-1D allowed the investigation of some scenarios in order to assess the contamination risk under different natural conditions. The aquifer risk contamination is related to the natural conditions where it increased while facing climate change and temperature increase and decreased in the presence of a clay layer in the unsaturated zone. Hydrus-1D was a useful tool to predict the groundwater level and quality in the case of a direct recharge and in the absence of any information related to the soil layers except for the texture.

Keywords: Hydrus-1D, Kairouan, salinization, semi-arid region, solute transport, unsaturated zone

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Authors: Yan Zhang, Felix Kin Peng Hui, Colin Duffield, Caroline X. Gao

Abstract:

In post-pandemic Australia, it is unclear how building occupant have changed their behaviour in their interaction with buildings and other occupants. This research provides information on occupant behaviour change compared to before the pandemic and examines the predictors for those behaviour changes. This paper analyses survey responses from 2298 building occupants in Melbourne to investigate occupant behaviour change and determinants for those changes one year after the pandemic in Australia. The behaviour changes were grouped into three categories based on respiratory infection routes: (1) fomite: hand-shaking and hand hygiene behaviours; (2) airborne: individual interventions to indoor air quality such as face masking, window openings for occupants working in naturally ventilated space; (3) droplets: social distancing, reducing working hours in the workplace. The survey shows that the pandemic has significantly changed occupants' behaviour in all three categories compared to before the pandemic. The changes are significantly associated with occupants' perceived indoor air quality, indoor environmental cleanliness, and occupant density, demonstrating their growing awareness of respiratory infection risk that influences their health behaviours. The two most significant factors identified from multivariate regressions to drive the behaviour change include occupant risk perception of respiratory infections at the workplace and their observed co-worker's behaviour change. Based on the survey results, the paper provides adjusted estimates for related occupant behaviour parameters. The study also discusses alternatives for managing window operations in naturally ventilated buildings to improve occupant satisfaction. This paper could help Building Managers, and Building Designers understand occupant behaviour change to improve building operations and new building design to enhance occupant experience. Also, building energy modellers and risk assessors may use the findings to adjust occupant behaviour-related parameters to improve the models. The findings contribute to the knowledge of Human-Building Interaction.

Keywords: human-building interaction, risk perception, occupant behaviour, IAQ, COVID-19

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Authors: Mehdi Rastegari Ghiri, Mohammad Reza Baradaran, Zahra Mirsanjari

Abstract:

The aim of the present study was the investigation of DNA Corporate General Administration of Sports and Youth in Fars province. The descriptive research method is a survey that was conducted by field survey. For data collection, questionnaires were used that designed based on Hnald and Silverman model. In this model the organizational DNA model is stated in four types: objective, individualistic, field-oriented and Spiritual. The reliability of the questionnaire by the researcher obtained by using Cronbach's alpha equal to 89/0 respectively. The statistical population includes all managers and specialists of Fars Province Directorate of Youth and Sport that 48 of them were selected as the samples of the research. The results showed the organizational DNA Directorate General for Youth and Sports Organization of Fars province has a field –oriented and nearly field-oriented DNA.

Keywords: organizational, DNA, Hnald, Silverman model

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Authors: Mohamed Rajab Peer Mohamed, Thiruvenkatasamy Kannabiran

Abstract:

In the present investigation, the scour around a circular pier subjected to a steady current were studied numerically using two-dimensional MIKE21 Flow Model (FM) and Sand Transport (ST)Modulewhich is developed by Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI), Denmark. The unstructured flexible mesh generated with rectangular flume dimension of 10 m wide, 1 m deep, and 30 m long. The grain size of the sand was d50 = 0.16 mm, sediment size, sediment gradation=1.16, pier diameter D= 30 mm and depth-averaged current velocity, U = 0.449 m/s are considered in the model. The estimated scour depth obtained from this model is validated and it is observed that the results of the model have good agreement with flume experimental results.In order to estimate the scour depth, several simulations were made for three cases viz., Case I:change in sediment transport model description in the numerical model viz, i) Engelund-Hansen model, ii) Engelund-Fredsøe model, and iii) Van Rijn model, Case II: change in current velocity for keeping constant pile diameter D=0.03 m and Case III:change in pier diameter for constant depth averaged current speed U=0.449 m/s.In case I simulations, the results indicate that the scour depth S/D is the order of 1.73 for Engelund-Hansen model, 0.64 for Engelund-Fredsøe model and 0.46 for VanRijn model. The scour depth estimates using Engelund-Hansen method compares well the experimental results.In case II, simulations show that the scour depth increases with increasing current component of the flow.In case III simulations, the results indicate that the scour depth increases with increase in pier diameter and it stabilize attains steady value when the Froude number> 2.71.All the results of the numerical simulations are clearly matches with reported values of the experimental results. Hence, this MIKE21 FM –Sand Transport model can be used as a suitable tool to estimate the scour depth for field applications. Moreover, to provide suitable scour protection methods, the maximum scour depth is to be predicted, Engelund-Hansen method can be adopted to estimate the scour depth in the steady current region.

Keywords: circular pier, MIKE21, numerical model, scour, sediment transport

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Authors: Nqobile Muleya, Winston Garira, Godwin Mchau

Abstract:

Citrus Black Spot (CBS) is a fungal disease that is responsible for huge economical loss and poses a threat to the citrus industry worldwide. We construct a mathematical model framework for citrus black spot between fruits to characterise the dynamics of the disease development, paying attention to the pathogen life cycle. We have made an observation from the model analysis that the initial inoculum from ascomata is very important for disease development and thereafter it is no longer important due to conidia which is responsible for secondary infection. Most importantly, the model indicated that ascospores and conidia are very important parameters in developing citrus black spot within a short distance. The basic reproductive number and its importance in relation to citrus black spot persistence are outlined. A numerical simulation of the model was done to explain the theoretical findings.

Keywords: epidemiological modelling, Guidnardia citricarpa, life cycle stage, fungal, disease development

Procedia PDF Downloads 354