Search results for: ANOVA score model

Authors: Ezeamagu M.U, Madu B.C

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This study was designed to investigate the efficacy of 5Es constructivist-based instructional model on students’ retention in primary Mathematics. 5Es stands for Engagement, Exploration, Explanation, Elaboration and Evaluation. The study adopted the pre test post test non-equivalent control group quasi-experimental research design. The sample size for the study was one hundred and thirty four pupils (134), seventy six male (76) and fifty eight female (58) from two primary schools in Nsukka education zone. Two intact classes in each of the sampled schools comprising all the primary four pupils were used. Each of the schools was given the opportunity of being assigned randomly to either experimental or control group. The Experimental group was taught using 5Es model while the control group was taught using the conventional method. Two research questions were formulated to guide the study and three hypotheses were tested at p ≤ 0. 05. A Fraction Achievement Test (FAT) of ten (10) questions were used to obtain data on pupils’ retention. Research questions were answered using mean and standard deviation while hypotheses were tested using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The result revealed that the 5Es model was more effective than the conventional method of teaching in enhancing pupils’ performance and retention in mathematics, secondly there is no significant difference in the mean retention scores of male and female students taught using 5Es instructional model. Based on the findings, it was recommended among other things, that the 5Es instructional model should be adopted in the teaching of mathematics in primary level of the educational system. Seminar, workshops and conferences should be mounted by professional bodies, federal and state ministries of education on the use of 5Es model. This will enable the mathematics educator, serving teachers, students and all to benefit from the approach.

Keywords: constructivist, education, mathematics, primary, retention

Procedia PDF Downloads 440

Authors: Haikal Achmad Thaha, Pujo Laksono, Dhamma Nibbana Putra

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Customer service is one of the core interest in a service sector of a company, whether as the core business or as service part of the operation. Most of the time, the people and the previous research in service industry is focused on finding the best business model solution for the service sector, usually to decide between total in house customer service, outsourcing, or something in between. Conventionally, to take this decision is some important part of the management job, and this is a process that usually takes some time and staff effort, meanwhile market condition and overall company needs may change and cause loss of income and temporary disturbance in the companies operation . However, in this paper we have offer a new concept model to assist decision making process in service industry. This model will featured information platform as central tool to integrate service industry operation. The result is service information model which would ideally increase response time and effectivity of the decision making. it will also help service industry in switching the service solution system quickly through machine learning when the companies growth and the service solution needed are changing.

Keywords: service industry, customer service, machine learning, decision making, information platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 610

Authors: Jason West

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Low profitability in agriculture production along with increasing scrutiny over environmental effects is limiting food production at scale. In contrast, the mining sector offers access to resources including energy, water, transport and chemicals for food production at low marginal cost. Scalable agricultural production can benefit from the nexus of resources (water, energy, transport) offered by mining activity in remote locations. A decision support bioeconomic model for controlled environment vertical farms was used. Four submodels were used: crop structure, nutrient requirements, resource-crop integration, and economic. They escalate to a macro mathematical model. A demonstrable dynamic systems framework is needed to prove productive outcomes are feasible. We demonstrate a generalized bioeconomic macro model for controlled environment production systems in minesites using systems dynamics modeling methodology. Despite the complexity of bioeconomic modelling of resource-agricultural dynamic processes and interactions, the economic potential greater than general economic models would assume. Scalability of production as an input becomes a key success feature.

Keywords: crop production systems, mathematical model, mining, agriculture, dynamic systems

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics models use an agent-based modeling approach to model people’s opinions. Model's properties are usually explored by testing the two 'degrees of freedom': the interaction rule and the network topology. The latter defines the connection, and thus the possible interaction, among agents. The interaction rule, instead, determines how agents select each other and update their own opinion. Here we show the existence of the third degree of freedom. This can be used for turning one model into each other or to change the model’s output up to 100% of its initial value. Opinion dynamics models represent the evolution of real-world opinions parsimoniously. Thus, it is fundamental to know how real-world opinion (e.g., supporting a candidate) could be turned into a number. Specifically, we want to know if, by choosing a different opinion-to-number transformation, the model’s dynamics would be preserved. This transformation is typically not addressed in opinion dynamics literature. However, it has already been studied in psychometrics, a branch of psychology. In this field, real-world opinions are converted into numbers using abstract objects called 'scales.' These scales can be converted one into the other, in the same way as we convert meters to feet. Thus, in our work, we analyze how this scale transformation may affect opinion dynamics models. We perform our analysis both using mathematical modeling and validating it via agent-based simulations. To distinguish between scale transformation and measurement error, we first analyze the case of perfect scales (i.e., no error or noise). Here we show that a scale transformation may change the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. Meaning that a researcher may reach a totally different conclusion, even using the same dataset just by slightly changing the way data are pre-processed. Indeed, we quantify that this effect may alter the model’s output by 100%. By using two models from the standard literature, we show that a scale transformation can transform one model into the other. This transformation is exact, and it holds for every result. Lastly, we also test the case of using real-world data (i.e., finite precision). We perform this test using a 7-points Likert scale, showing how even a small scale change may result in different predictions or a number of opinion clusters. Because of this, we think that scale transformation should be considered as a third-degree of freedom for opinion dynamics. Indeed, its properties have a strong impact both on theoretical models and for their application to real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: Tauha Hussain Ali, Shabir Hussain Khahro, Nafees Ahmed Memon

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Accurate prediction of project time for planning and bid preparation stage should contain realistic dates. Constructors use their experience to estimate the project duration for the new projects, which is based on intuitions. It has been a constant concern to both researchers and constructors to analyze the accurate prediction of project duration for bid preparation stage. In Pakistan, such study for time cost relationship has been lacked to predict duration performance for the construction projects. This study is an attempt to explore the time cost relationship that would conclude with a mathematical model to predict the time for the drainage rehabilitation projects in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. The data has been collected from National Engineering Services (NESPAK), Pakistan and regression analysis has been carried out for the analysis of results. Significant relationship has been found between time and cost of the construction projects in Sindh and the generated mathematical model can be used by the constructors to predict the project duration for the upcoming projects of same nature. This study also provides the professionals with a requisite knowledge to make decisions regarding project duration, which is significantly important to win the projects at the bid stage.

Keywords: BTC Model, project time, relationship of time cost, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Abebayehu Yohannes, Hsiu-Ling Chen, Chiu-Chen Chang

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Mathematics reading and spatial ability are important learning components in mathematics education. However, many students struggle to understand real-world problems and lack the spatial ability to form internal imagery. To cope with this problem, in this study, an interactive e-book was developed. The result indicated that both groups had a significant increase in the mathematics reading ability test, and a significant difference was observed in the overall mathematics reading score in favor of the experimental group. In addition, the interactive e-book learning mode had significant impacts on students’ spatial ability. It was also found that the richness of content with visual and interactive elements provided in the interactive e-book enhanced students’ satisfaction with the teaching material.

Keywords: interactive e-books, spatial ability, mathematics reading, satisfaction, three view

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Cafer Görkem Pınar, İlker Coşar, Serkan Uzun, Atahan Çelebi, Mehmet Ali Ersoy, Ali Pınarbaşı

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In this study, it was numerically investigated that a 1:1 scale model of the Renault Clio MK4 SW brand vehicle aerodynamic analysis was performed in the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package program of ANSYS CFX 2021 R1 under steady, subsonic, and 3-D conditions. The model of vehicle used for the analysis was made independent of the number of mesh elements, and the k-epsilon turbulence model was applied during the analysis. Results were interpreted as streamlines, pressure gradient, and turbulent kinetic energy contours around the vehicle at 50 km/h and 100 km/h speeds. In addition, the validity of the analysis was decided by comparing the drag coefficient of the vehicle with the values in the literature. As a result, the pressure gradient contours of the taillight of the Renault Clio MK4 SW vehicle were examined, and the behavior of the total force at speeds of 50 km/h and 100 km/h was interpreted.

Keywords: CFD, k-epsilon, aerodynamics, drag coefficient, taillight

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Authors: Arnab Mondal, Sanjeev Kumar Sharma, Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay

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We study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a neuronal cable. The processes of one- dimensional (1D) and 2D diffusion are considered for a single variable, which is the membrane voltage, i.e., membrane voltage diffusively interacts for spatiotemporal pattern formalism. The recovery and other variables interact through the membrane voltage. A 3D Leech-Heart (LH) model is introduced to investigate the nonlinear responses of an excitable neuronal cable. The deterministic LH model shows different types of firing properties. We explore the parameter space of the uncoupled LH model and based on the bifurcation diagram, considering v_k2_ashift as a bifurcation parameter, we analyze the 1D diffusion dynamics in three regimes: bursting, regular spiking, and a quiescent state. Depending on parameters, it is shown that the diffusive system may generate regular and irregular bursting or spiking behavior. Further, it is explored a 2D diffusion acting on the membrane voltage, where different types of patterns can be observed. The results show that the LH neurons with different firing characteristics depending on the control parameters participate in a collective behavior of an information processing system that depends on the overall network.

Keywords: bifurcation, pattern formation, spatio-temporal dynamics, stability analysis

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, openVSP, solver, time

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Authors: Mark Watson, J.-F. Bousquet, Adam Forget

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A magnetic induction based underwater communication link is evaluated using an analytical model and a custom Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) simulation tool. The analytical model is based on the Sommerfeld integral, and a full-wave simulation tool evaluates Maxwell’s equations using the FDTD method in cylindrical coordinates. The analytical model and FDTD simulation tool are then compared and used to predict the system performance for various transmitter depths and optimum frequencies of operation. To this end, the system bandwidth, signal to noise ratio, and the magnitude of the induced voltage are used to estimate the expected channel capacity. The models show that in seawater, a relatively low-power and small coils may be capable of obtaining a throughput of 40 to 300 kbps, for the case where a transmitter is at depths of 1 to 3 m and a receiver is at a height of 1 m.

Keywords: magnetic induction, FDTD, underwater communication, Sommerfeld

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

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Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km2, is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R2, which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, modeling, sensitivity analysis, SWAT, water yield, watershed level

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Authors: Anna Ouskova Leonteva, Michel Risser, Anne Jeannin-Girardon, Pierre Parrend, Pierre Collet

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This paper proposes an efficient optimization tool for an active magnetic regenerator (AMR) model, operating in two modes: magnetic refrigeration system (MRS) and thermo-magnetic generator (TMG). The aim of this optimizer is to improve the design of the AMR by applying a multi-physics multi-scales numerical model as a core of evaluation functions to achieve industrial requirements for refrigeration and energy conservation systems. Based on the multi-objective non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm 3 (NSGA3), it maximizes four different objectives: efficiency and power density for MRS and TMG. The main contribution of this work is in the simultaneously application of a CPU-parallel NSGA3 version to the AMR model in both modes for studying impact of control and design parameters on the performance. The parametric study of the optimization results are presented. The main conclusion is that the common (for TMG and MRS modes) optimal parameters can be found by the proposed tool.

Keywords: ecological refrigeration systems, active magnetic regenerator, thermo-magnetic generator, multi-objective evolutionary optimization, industrial optimization problem, real-world application

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Authors: Akintunde O. Osibamowo, Abdulrasaq O. Olusanya

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The present study was designed to examine the effect of problem-solving approach as a medium of instruction in teaching and learning of mathematics to improve the achievement of the student. One Hundred (100) students were randomly chosen from five (5) Junior Secondary School in Ijebu-Ode Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. The data was collected through Mathematics Achievement Test (MAT) on the two groups (experimental and control group). The study confirmed that there is a significant different in the achievement of students exposed to problem-solving approach than those not exposed. The result also indicated that male students, however, had a greater mean-score than the female with no significant difference in their achievement. The result of the study supports the use of problem-solving approach in the teaching and learning of mathematics in secondary schools.

Keywords: problem, achievement, teaching phases, experimental control

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Fazlul Karim, Esa Al-Islam

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Many problems in oceanography and environmental sciences require the solution of shallow water equations on physical domains having curvilinear coastlines and abrupt changes of ocean depth near the shore. Finite-difference technique for the shallow water equations representing the boundary as stair step may give inaccurate results near the coastline where results are of greatest interest for various applications. This suggests the use of methods which are capable of incorporating the irregular boundary in coastal belts. At the same time, large velocity gradient is expected near the beach and islands as water depth vary abruptly near the coast. A nested numerical scheme with fine resolution is the best resort to enhance the numerical accuracy with the least grid numbers for the region of interests where the velocity changes rapidly and which is unnecessary for the away of the region. This paper describes the development of a boundary fitted nested grid (BFNG) model to compute tsunami propagation of 2004 Indonesian tsunami in Southern Thailand coastal waters. In this paper, we develop a numerical model employing the shallow water nested model and an orthogonal boundary fitted grid to investigate the tsunami impact on the Southern Thailand due to the Indonesian tsunami of 2004. Comparisons of water surface elevation obtained from numerical simulations and field measurements are made.

Keywords: Indonesian tsunami of 2004, Boundary-fitted nested grid model, Southern Thailand, finite difference method

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Authors: Rozelle Labuschagne, Ronel Roos

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Individuals often experience a reduction in physical function, quality of life and basic activities of daily living after surgery. This is exponentially true for high-risk patients, especially the elderly and frail individuals. Not much is known about the physical function, physical activity preferences and factors associated with the six-minute walk test of elderly individuals who would undergo elective abdominal surgery in South Africa. Such information is important to design effective prehabilitation physiotherapy programs prior to elective surgery. The purpose of the study was to describe the demographic profile and physical function of elderly patients who would undergo elective surgery and to determine factors associated with their six-minute walk test distance findings. A cross-sectional descriptive study in elderly patients older than 60 years of age who would undergo elective abdominal surgery were consecutively sampled at a private hospital in Pretoria, South Africa. Participants’ demographics were collected and physical function assessed with the Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI), DeMorton Mobility Index (DEMMI), Lawton-Brody Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL) and six-minute walk test (6MWT). Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis with IBM SPSS 25. A p-value ≤ 0.05 were deemed statistically significant. The pilot study consisted of 12 participants (female (n=11, 91.7%), male (n=1, 8.3%) with a mean age of 65.8 (±4.5) years, body mass index of 28 (±4.2) kg.m2 with one (8.3%) participant being a current smoker and four (33.3%) participants having a smoking history. Nine (75%) participants lived independently at home and three (25%) had caregivers. Participants reported walking (n=6, 50%), stretching exercises (n=1, 8.3%), household chores & gardening (n=2, 16.7%), biking/swimming/running (n=1, 8.3%) as physical activity preferences. Physical function findings of the sample were: mean FCI score 3 (±1.1), DEMMI score 81.1 (±14.9), IADL 95 (±17.3), 6MWT 435.50 (IQR 364.75-458.50) with percentage 6MWT distance achieved 81.8% (IQR 64.4%-87.5%). A strong negative correlation was observed between 6MWT distance walked and FCI (r = -0.729, p=0.007). The majority of study participants reported incorporating some form of physical activity into their daily life as form of exercise. Most participants did not achieve their predicted 6MWT distance indicating less than optimal levels of physical function capacity. The number of comorbidities as determined by the FCI was associated with the distance that participants could walk with the 6MWT. The results of this pilot study could be used to indicate which elderly individuals would benefit most from a pre-surgical rehabilitation program. The main goal of such a program would be to improve physical function capacity as measured by the 6MWT. Surgeons could refer patients based on age and number of comorbidities, as determined by the FCI, to potentially improve surgical outcomes.

Keywords: abdominal surgery, elderly, physical function, six-minute walk test

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Juan Harold Sosa-Arnao, Daniel José de Oliveira Ferreira, Caice Guarato Santos, Justo Emílio Alvarez, Leonardo Paes Rangel, Song Won Park

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A comprehensive CFD model is developed to represent heterogeneous combustion and two burner designs of supply sugar-cane bagasse into a furnace. The objective of this work is to compare the insertion and burning of a Brazilian south-eastern sugar-cane bagasse using a new swirl burner design against an actual geometry under operation. The new design allows control the particles penetration and scattering inside furnace by adjustment of axial/tangential contributions of air feed without change their mass flow. The model considers turbulence using RNG k-, combustion using EDM, radiation heat transfer using DTM with 16 ray directions and bagasse particle tracking represented by Schiller-Naumann model. The obtained results are favorable to use of new design swirl burner because its axial/tangential control promotes more penetration or more scattering than actual design and allows reproduce the actual design operation without change the overall mass flow supply.

Keywords: comprehensive CFD model, sugar-cane bagasse combustion, swirl burner, contributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Jane Oliver, Angeline Ferdinand, Jessica Kaufman, Peta Edler, Nicole Allard, Margie Danchin, Katherine B. Gibney

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Background: The cohealth Health Concierge program operated in Melbourne, Australia, from July 2020 to 30 June 2022. The program was designed to provide place-based peer-to-peer COVID-19 education and support to culturally and linguistically diverse residents of high-rise public housing estates. During this time, the COVID-19 public health response changed frequently. We conducted a mixed-methods evaluation to determine the program’s impact on residents’ trust, engagement and communication with health services and public health activities. Methods: The RE-AIM model was used to assess program reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance and the evaluation was informed by a Project Reference Group including end-users. Data were collected between March and May 2022 in four estates where the program operated. We surveyed 301 residents, conducted qualitative interviews with 32 stakeholders and analyzed data from 20,901 forms reporting interactions between Health Concierges and residents collected from August 2021 to May 2022. These forms outlined the support provided by Health Concierges during each interaction. Results: Overall, the program was effective in guiding residents to testing and vaccination services and facilitating COVID-19 safe practices. Nearly two-thirds (191; 63.5%) of the 301 surveyed participants reported speaking with a Health Concierge in the previous six months, and some described having meaningful conversations with them. Despite this, many of the interactions residents described having with Health Concierges were superficial. When considering surveyed participants’ responses to the adapted Public Health Disaster Trust Scale, the mean score across all estates was 2.3 (or slightly more than ‘somewhat confident’) in public health authorities’ ability to respond to a localized infectious disease outbreak. While the program was valued during the rapidly changing public health response, many felt it had failed to evolve in the ‘living with COVID’ phase. Some residents expressed frustration with Health Concierges’ having perceived inactive, passive roles - although other residents felt Health Concierges were helpful and appreciated them. A perception that the true impact of Health Concierges’ work was underrecognized was widely voiced by health staff. All 20,901 Interaction Forms identified COVID-19-related supports provided to residents; almost all included provision of facemasks and/or hand sanitiser and 78% identified additional supports that were also provided, most frequently provision of other health information. Conclusions: The program disseminated up-to-date information to a diverse population within a rapidly changing public health setting. Health Concierges were able promote COVID-19-safe behaviours, including vaccine uptake, and link residents with support services. We recommend the program be revised and continued. New programs that draw on the Health Concierge model may be valuable in supporting future pandemic responses and should be considered in preparedness planning.

Keywords: community health, COVID-19 pandemic, infectious diseases, public health, community health workers

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Authors: M. Iqbal Hossain, Azharul Islam Khan, S. M. Rafiqul Islam, Tahmeed Ahmed

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Objective: Moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in under-5 children of low-income countries. Approximately 14.6% of all under-5 mortality worldwide is attributed to MAM with >3 times increased risk of death compared to well-nourished peers. Prevalence of MAM among under-5 children in Bangladesh is ~12% (~1.7 million). Providing a diet containing adequate nutrients is the mainstay of treatment of children with MAM. It is now possible to process fish into fish peptides with longer shelf-life without refrigerator, known as ‘Fish Surimi peptide’ and this could be an attractive alternative to supply fish protein in the diet of children in low-income countries like Bangladesh. We conducted this study to assess the acceptability of Fish Surimi peptide given with various foods/meals in 2-5 years old children with MAM. Design/methods: Fish Surimi peptide is broken down from white fish meat using plant-derived enzyme and the ingredient is just fish meat consisted of 20 different kinds of amino acids including nine essential amino acids. In a convenience sample of 34 children we completed the study ward of Dhaka Hospital of icddr,b in Bangladesh during November 2014 through February 2015. For each child the study was for two consecutive days: i.e. direct observation of food intake of two lunches and two suppers. In a randomly and blinded manner and cross over design an individual child received Fish Surimi peptide (5g at lunch and 5g at supper) mixed meal [e.g. 30g rice and 30g dahl (thick lentil soup) or 60g of a vegetables-lentil-rice mixed local dish known as khichuri in one day and the same meal on other day without any Fish Surimi peptide. We observed the completeness and eagerness of eating and any possible side effect (e.g. allergy, vomiting, diarrhea etc.) over these two days. Results: The mean±SD age of the enrolled children was 38.4±9.4 months, weight 11.22±1.41 kg, height 91.0±6.3 cm, and WHZ was -2.13±0.76. Their mean±SD total feeding time (minutes) for lunch was 25.4±13.6 vs. 20.6±11.1 (p=0.130) and supper was 22.3±9.7 vs. 19.7±11.2 (p=0.297), and total amount (g) of food eaten in lunch and supper was found similar 116.1±7.0 vs. 117.7±8.0 (p=3.01) in A (Fish Surimi) and B group respectively. Score in Hedonic scale by mother on test of food given to children at lunch or supper was 3.9±0.2 vs. 4.0±0.2 (p=0.317) and on overall acceptance (including the texture, smell, and appearance) of food at lunch or supper was 3.9±0.2 vs. 4.0±0.2 (p=0.317) for A and B group respectively. No adverse event was observed in any food group during the study period. Conclusions: Fish Surimi peptide may be a cost effective supplementary food, which should be tested by appropriately designed randomized community level intervention trial both in wasted children and stunted children.

Keywords: protein-energy malnutrition, moderate acute malnutrition, weight-for-height z-score, mid upper arm circumference, acceptability, fish surimi peptide, under-5 children

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Authors: Sawsan Eissa, Momen Gharib, Omnia Kabbany

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A flushing numerical study has been performed for intended artificial islands on the Persian Gulf coast in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The island masterplan was tested for flushing using the DELFT 3D hydrodynamic model, and it was found that its residence time exceeds the acceptable PIANC flushing Criteria. Therefore, a number of mitigation measures were applied and tested one by one using the flushing model. Namely, changing the location of the entrance opening, dredging, removing part of the mangrove existing in the near vicinity to create a channel, removing the mangrove altogether, using culverts of different numbers and locations, and pumping at selected points. The pumping option gave the best solution, but it was disregarded due to high capital and running costs. Therefore, it opted for a combination of other solutions, including removing mangroves, introducing culverts, and adjusting island boundaries and types of protection.

Keywords: hydrodynamics, flushing, delft 3d, Persian Gulf, artificial islands.

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Authors: V. Diaz, B. Pardo , D. Villegas

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In premature births most babies have complications at birth, these complications can be reduced, if an atmosphere of relaxation is provided and is also similar to intrauterine life, for this, there are programs where their mothers lull and sway them; however, the conditions in which they do so and the way in they do it may not be the indicated. Here we describe an investigation based on the biomimics of the kinematics of human fetal movement, which consists of determining the movements that the fetus experiences and the deformations of the components that surround the fetus during a gentle walk at week 32 of the gestation stage. This research is based on a 3D model that has the anatomical structure of the pelvis, fetus, muscles, uterus and its most important supporting elements (ligaments). Normal load conditions are applied to this model according to the stage of gestation and the kinematics of a gentle walk of a pregnant mother, which focuses on the pelvic bone, this allows to receive a response from the other elements of the model. To accomplish this modeling and subsequent simulation Solidworks software was used. From this analysis, the curves that describe the movement of the fetus at three different points were obtained. Additionally, we could found the deformation of the uterus and the ligaments that support it, showing the characteristics that these tissues can have in the face of the support of the fetus. These data can be used for the construction of artifacts that help the normal development of premature infants.

Keywords: simulation, biomimic, uterine model, fetal movement study

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: Hamish Love, Navjot Bhullar, Nicola Schutte

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Self-control and related psychological constructs have been shown to have a large role in the improvement and maintenance of healthful dietary behaviour. However, self-control for diet, and related constructs such as motivation, level of conflict between tempting desires and dietary goals, and attentional bias for tempting food, have not been studied together to establish their relationships, to the author’s best knowledge. Therefore the aim of this paper was to conduct model testing on these constructs and evaluate how they relate to affect dietary outcomes. 400 Australian adult participants will be recruited via the Qualtrics platform and will be representative across age and gender. They will complete survey and reaction timing surveys to gather data on the five target constructs: Trait Self-control, Attentional Bias for Food, Dietary Goal-Desire Incongruence, Motivation for Dietary Self-control, and Satisfaction with Dietary Behaviour. A model of moderated mediation is predicted, whereby the initial predictor (Dietary Goal-Desire Incongruence) predicts the level of the outcome variable, Satisfaction with Dietary Behaviour. We hypothesise that the relationship between these two variables will be mediated by Trait Self-Control and that the extent that Trait Self-control is allowed to mediate dietary outcome is moderated by both Attentional Bias for Food and Motivation for Dietary Self-control. The analysis will be conducted using the PROCESS module in SPSS 23. The results of model testing in this current study will be valuable to direct future research and inform which constructs could be important targets for intervention to improve dietary outcomes.

Keywords: self-control, diet, model testing, attentional bias, motivation

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Authors: Yuyang Cheng, Marcos Escobar-Anel

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This paper introduces a multivariate 4/2 stochastic covariance process generalizing the one-dimensional counterparts presented in Grasselli (2017). Our construction permits stochastic correlation not only among stocks but also among volatilities, also known as co-volatility movements, both driven by more convenient 4/2 stochastic structures. The parametrization is flexible enough to separate these types of correlation, permitting their individual study. Conditions for proper changes of measure and closed-form characteristic functions under risk-neutral and historical measures are provided, allowing for applications of the model to risk management and derivative pricing. We apply the model to an expected utility theory problem in incomplete markets. Our analysis leads to closed-form solutions for the optimal allocation and value function. Conditions are provided for well-defined solutions together with a verification theorem. Our numerical analysis highlights and separates the impact of key statistics on equity portfolio decisions, in particular, volatility, correlation, and co-volatility movements, with the latter being the least important in an incomplete market.

Keywords: stochastic covariance process, 4/2 stochastic volatility model, stochastic co-volatility movements, characteristic function, expected utility theory, verication theorem

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Authors: Magdalena Jablonska, Andrzej Falkowski

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The negativity effect is one of the most intriguing and well-studied psychological phenomena that can be observed in many areas of human life. The aim of the following study is to investigate how valence framing and positive and negative information about political candidates affect judgments about similarity to an ideal and bad politician. Based on the theoretical framework of features of similarity, it is hypothesized that negative features have a stronger effect on similarity judgments than positive features of comparable value. Furthermore, the mediating role of affect is tested. Method: One hundred sixty-one people took part in an experimental study. Participants were divided into 6 research conditions that differed in the reference point (positive vs negative framing) and the number of favourable and unfavourable information items about political candidates (a positive, neutral and negative candidate profile). In positive framing condition, the concept of an ideal politician was primed; in the negative condition, participants were to think about a bad politician. The effect of independent variables on similarity judgments, affective evaluation, and voting intention was tested. Results: In the positive condition, the analysis showed that the negative effect of additional unfavourable features was greater than the positive effect of additional favourable features in judgements about similarity to the ideal candidate. In negative framing condition, ANOVA was insignificant, showing that neither the addition of positive features nor additional negative information had a significant impact on the similarity to a bad political candidate. To explain this asymmetry, two mediational analyses were conducted that tested the mediating role of affect in the relationship between similarity judgments and voting intention. In both situations the mediating effect was significant, but the comparison of two models showed that the mediation was stronger for a negative framing. Discussion: The research supports the negativity effect and attempts to explain the psychological mechanism behind the positive-negative asymmetry. The results of mediation analyses point to a stronger mediating role of affect in the relationship between cognitive evaluation and voting intention. Such a result suggests that negative comparisons, leading to the activation of negative features, give rise to stronger emotions than positive features of comparable strength. The findings are in line with positive-negative asymmetry, however, by adopting Tversky’s framework of features of similarity, the study integrates the cognitive mechanism of the negativity effect delineated in the contrast model of similarity with its emotional component resulting from the asymmetrical effect of positive and negative emotions on decision-making.

Keywords: affect, framing, negativity effect, positive-negative asymmetry, similarity judgements

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Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki, Danuta Szwajca

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The growing importance of reputation in building enterprise value and achieving long-term competitive advantage creates the need for its measurement and evaluation for the management purposes (effective reputation and its risk management). The paper presents practical application of self-developed corporate reputation assessment model from the viewpoint of stock market investors. The model has a pioneer character and example analysis performed for selected industry is a form of specific test for this tool. In the proposed solution, three aspects - informational, financial and development, as well as social ones - were considered. It was also assumed that the individual sub-criteria will be based on public sources of information, and as the calculation apparatus, capable of obtaining synthetic final assessment, fuzzy logic will be used. The main reason for developing this model was to fulfill the gap in the scope of synthetic measure of corporate reputation that would provide higher degree of objectivity by relying on "hard" (not from surveys) and publicly available data. It should be also noted that results obtained on the basis of proposed corporate reputation assessment method give possibilities of various internal as well as inter-branch comparisons and analysis of corporate reputation impact.

Keywords: corporate reputation, fuzzy logic, fuzzy model, stock market investors

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Authors: A. Porshnev, A. Zaporozhtchuk

Abstract:

Motivation regarded as a key factor of labor turnover, is especially important for volunteers working on an altruistic basis in NGO. Despite the motivational letter, candidate selection depends on the impression of the selection committee, which can be subject to human bias. We expect that structured and unstructured information provided in motivation letters could be used to improve candidate selection procedures. In our paper, we perform qualitative and quantitative analysis of 2280 motivation letters, create logistic regression, and build a decision tree to improve selection procedures. Our analysis showed that motivation factors are significant and enable human resources department to forecast labor turnover and provide extra information to demographic, professional and timing questions. In spite of the average level of accuracy the model demonstrates the selection procedures of company of under consideration can be improved. We also discuss interrelation between answers to open and closed motivation questions, recommend changes in motivational letter templates to ensure more relevant information about applicants and further steps to create more accurate model.

Keywords: decision trees, logistic regression, model, motivational letter, non-governmental organization, retention, turnover

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Authors: Ghada Abo-Zaid

Abstract:

Introduction: Oil is one of the most income source in Bahrain. Low oil price influence on the economy growth and the investment rate in Bahrain. For example, the economic growth was 3.7% in 2012, and it reduced to 2.9% in 2015. Investment rate was 9.8% in 2012, and it is reduced to be 5.9% and -12.1% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The inflation rate is increased to the peak point in 2013 with 3.3 %. Objectives: The objectives here are to build statistical models to examine the effect of the interest rate inflation rate on the growth economy in Bahrain from 2000 to 2018. Methods: This study based on 18 years, and the multiple regression model is used for the analysis. All of the missing data are omitted from the analysis. Results: Regression model is used to examine the association between the Growth national product (GNP), the inflation rate, and real interest rate. We found that (i) Increase the real interest rate decrease the GNP. (ii) Increase the inflation rate does not effect on the growth economy in Bahrain since the average of the inflation rate was almost 2%, and this is considered as a low percentage. Conclusion: There is a positive impact of the real interest rate on the GNP in Bahrain. While the inflation rate does not show any negative influence on the GNP as the inflation rate was not large enough to effect negatively on the economy growth rate in Bahrain.

Keywords: growth national product, egypt, regression model, interest rate

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Authors: G. Punithavathy

Abstract:

The research proposes a statistical model for the distributed acoustic sensor interrogation units that broadcast a laser pulse into the fiber optics, where interactions within the fiber determine the localized acoustic energy that causes light reflections known as backscatter. The backscattered signal's amplitude and phase can be calculated using explicit equations. The created model makes amplitude signal spectrum and autocorrelation predictions that are confirmed by experimental findings. Phase signal characteristics that are useful for researching optical time domain reflectometry (OTDR) system sensing applications are provided and examined, showing good agreement with the experiment. The experiment was successfully done with the use of Python coding. In this research, we can analyze the entire distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) component parts separately. This model assumes that the fiber is in a static condition, meaning that there is no external force or vibration applied to the cable, that means no external acoustic disturbances present. The backscattered signal consists of a random noise component, which is caused by the intrinsic imperfections of the fiber, and a coherent component, which is due to the laser pulse interacting with the fiber.

Keywords: distributed acoustic sensing, optical fiber devices, optical time domain reflectometry, Rayleigh scattering

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Authors: Hasan G. Elmazoghi, Aisha I. Alzayani, Lubna S. Bentaher

Abstract:

Rainfall is a highly non-linear phenomena, which requires application of powerful supervised data mining techniques for its accurate prediction. In this study the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is used to predict the mean monthly historical rainfall data collected from BENINA station in Benghazi for 31 years, the period of “1977-2006” and the results are compared against the observed values. The specific objective to achieve this goal was to determine the best combination of weather variables to be used as inputs for the ANN model. Several statistical parameters were calculated and an uncertainty analysis for the results is also presented. The best ANN model is then applied to the data of one year (2007) as a case study in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation results reveal that application of ANN technique is promising and can provide reliable estimates of rainfall.

Keywords: neural networks, rainfall, prediction, climatic variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 476

Authors: Azam Tabatabaee, Fereshteh Dastgoshadeh, Akram Tabatabaee

Abstract:

This paper describes the use of by-products as adsorbents for removing heavy metals from aqueous effluent solutions. Products of almond skin, walnut shell, saw dust, rice bran and egg shell were evaluated as metal ion adsorbents in aqueous solutions. A comparative study was done with commercial adsorbents like ion exchange resins and activated carbon too. Batch experiments were investigated to determine the affinity of all of biomasses for, Cd(ΙΙ), Cr(ΙΙΙ), Ni(ΙΙ), and Pb(ΙΙ) metal ions at pH 5. The rate of metal ion removal in the synthetic wastewater by the biomass was evaluated by measuring final concentration of synthetic wastewater. At a concentration of metal ion (50 mg/L), egg shell adsorbed high levels (98.6 – 99.7%) of Pb(ΙΙ) and Cr(ΙΙΙ) and walnut shell adsorbed high levels (35.3 – 65.4%) of Ni(ΙΙ) and Cd(ΙΙ). In this study, it has been shown that by-products were excellent adsorbents for removal of toxic ions from wastewater with efficiency comparable to commercially available adsorbents, but at a reduced cost. Also statistical studies using Independent Sample t Test and ANOVA Oneway for statistical comparison between various elements adsorption showed that there isn’t a significant difference in some elements adsorption percentage by by-products and commercial adsorbents.

Keywords: adsorbents, heavy metals, commercial adsorbents, wastewater, by-products

Procedia PDF Downloads 397