Search results for: historical trends

Authors: Ali Kazemi

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Those within the volatile and interconnected international economic markets, appropriately predicting market trends, hold substantial fees for traders and financial establishments. Traditional device mastering strategies have made full-size strides in forecasting marketplace movements; however, monetary data's complicated and networked nature calls for extra sophisticated processes. This observation offers a groundbreaking method for monetary marketplace prediction that leverages the synergistic capability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our suggested algorithm is meticulously designed to forecast the traits of inventory market indices and cryptocurrency costs, utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023. This era, marked by sizable volatility and transformation in financial markets, affords a solid basis for schooling and checking out our predictive version. Our algorithm integrates diverse facts to construct a dynamic economic graph that correctly reflects market intricacies. We meticulously collect opening, closing, and high and low costs daily for key inventory marketplace indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ) and widespread cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), ensuring a holistic view of marketplace traits. Daily trading volumes are also incorporated to seize marketplace pastime and liquidity, providing critical insights into the market's shopping for and selling dynamics. Furthermore, recognizing the profound influence of the monetary surroundings on financial markets, we integrate critical macroeconomic signs with hobby fees, inflation rates, GDP increase, and unemployment costs into our model. Our GCN algorithm is adept at learning the relational patterns amongst specific financial devices represented as nodes in a comprehensive market graph. Edges in this graph encapsulate the relationships based totally on co-movement styles and sentiment correlations, enabling our version to grasp the complicated community of influences governing marketplace moves. Complementing this, our LSTM algorithm is trained on sequences of the spatial-temporal illustration discovered through the GCN, enriched with historic fee and extent records. This lets the LSTM seize and expect temporal marketplace developments accurately. Inside the complete assessment of our GCN-LSTM algorithm across the inventory marketplace and cryptocurrency datasets, the version confirmed advanced predictive accuracy and profitability compared to conventional and opportunity machine learning to know benchmarks. Specifically, the model performed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85%, indicating high precision in predicting day-by-day charge movements. The RMSE was recorded at 1.2%, underscoring the model's effectiveness in minimizing tremendous prediction mistakes, which is vital in volatile markets. Furthermore, when assessing the model's predictive performance on directional market movements, it achieved an accuracy rate of 78%, significantly outperforming the benchmark models, averaging an accuracy of 65%. This high degree of accuracy is instrumental for techniques that predict the course of price moves. This study showcases the efficacy of mixing graph-based totally and sequential deep learning knowledge in economic marketplace prediction and highlights the fee of a comprehensive, records-pushed evaluation framework. Our findings promise to revolutionize investment techniques and hazard management practices, offering investors and economic analysts a powerful device to navigate the complexities of cutting-edge economic markets.

Keywords: financial market prediction, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), cryptocurrency forecasting

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Authors: Stephen Verderber

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The World Health Organization (WHO) calls for research and development on ecologically sustainable, resilient structures capable of effectively responding to disaster events globally, in response to climate change, politically based diasporas, earthquakes, and other adverse events upending the rhythms of everyday life globally. By 2050, nearly 80% of the world’s population will reside in coastal zones, and this, coupled with the increasingly dire impacts of climate change, constitute a recipe for further chaos and disruption, and in light of these events, architects have yet to rise up to meet the challenge. In the arena of healthcare, rapidly deployable clinics and field hospitals can provide immediate assistance in medically underserved disaster strike zones. Transportable facilities offer multiple advantages over conventional, fixed-site hospitals, as lightweight, comparatively unencumbered alternatives. These attributes have been proven repeatedly in 20th century vehicular and tent-based structures deployed in frontline combat theaters and in prior natural disasters. Prefab transportable clinics and trauma centers recently responded adroitly to medical emergencies in the aftermath of the Haitian (2010) and Ecuadorian (2016) earthquakes, and in North American post-hurricane relief efforts (2017) while architects continue to be castigated by their engineer colleagues as chronically poor first responders. Architecturally based portable structures for healthcare currently include Redeployable Health Centers (RHCs), Redeployable Trauma Centers (RTCs), and Permanent Modular Installations (PMIs). Five tectonic variants within this typology have recently been operationalized in the field: 1. Vehicular-based Nomadics: Prefab modules installed on a truck chassis with interior compartments dropped in prior to final assembly. Alternately, a two-component apparatus is preferred, with a truck cab pulling a modular medical unit, with independent transiting component; 2. Tent and Pneumatic Systems: Tent/yurt precursors and inflatable systems lightweight and responsive to topographically challenging terrain and diverse climates; 3. Containerized Systems: The standard modular intermodal-shipping container affords structural strength, resiliency in difficult transiting conditions, and can be densely close-packed and these can be custom-built or hold flat-pack systems; 4. Flat-Packs and Pop-Up Systems: These kit-of-part assemblies are shipped in standardized or specially-designed ISO containers; and 5. Hybrid Systems: These consist of composite facilities representing a synthesis of mobile vehicular components and/or tent or shipping containers, fused with conventional or pneumatically activated tent systems. Hybrids are advantageous in many installation contexts from an aesthetic, fabrication, and transiting perspective. Advantages/disadvantages of various modular systems are comparatively examined, followed by presentation of a compendium of 80 evidence (research)-based planning and design considerations addressing site/context, transiting and commissioning, triage, decontamination/intake, diagnostic and treatment, facility tectonics, and administration/total environment. The benefits of offsite pre-manufactured fabrication are examined, as is anticipated growth in international demand for transportable healthcare facilities to meet the challenges posed by accelerating global climate change and global conflicts. This investigation into rapid response facilities for pre and post-disaster zones is drawn from a recent book by the author, the first on architecture on this topic (Innovations in Transportable Healthcare Architecture).

Keywords: disaster mitigation, rapid response healthcare architecture, offsite prefabrication

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Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

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These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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Authors: Chiu-Yin Leung

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This research investigates a complex assemblage among indigenous identities, socio-political organization and national apparatus in the border landscape of post-colonial Hong Kong. This former British colony had designated a transient mode of governance in its New Territories and particularly the northernmost borderland in 1951-2012. With a discriminated system of land provisions for the indigenous villagers, the place has been inherited with distinctive village-based culture, historic monuments and agrarian practices until its sovereignty return into the People’s Republic of China. In its latest development imperatives by the national strategic planning, the frontier area of Hong Kong has been identified as a strategy site for regional economic integration in South China, with cross-border projects of innovation and technology zones, mega-transport infrastructure and inter-jurisdictional arrangement. Contemporary literature theorizes borders as the material and discursive production of territoriality, which manifest in state apparatus and the daily lives of its citizens and condense in the contested articulations of power, security and citizenship. Drawing on the concept of assemblage, this paper attempts to tract how the border regime and infrastructure in Hong Kong as a city are deeply ingrained in the everyday lived spaces of the local communities but also the changing urban and regional strategies across different longitudinal moments. Through an intensive ethnographic fieldwork among the borderland villages since 2008 and the extensive analysis of colonial archives, new development plans and spatial planning frameworks, the author navigates the genealogy of the border landscape in Ta Kwu Ling frontier area and its implications as the milieu for new state space, covering heterogeneous fields particularly in indigenous rights, heritage preservation, rural sustainability and regional economy. Empirical evidence suggests an apparent bias towards indigenous power and colonial representation in classifying landscape values and conserving historical monuments. Squatter and farm tenants are often deprived of property rights, statutory participation and livelihood option in the planning process. The postcolonial bureaucracies have great difficulties in mobilizing resources to catch up with the swift, political-first approach of the mainland counterparts. Meanwhile, the cultural heritage, lineage network and memory landscape are not protected altogether with any holistic view or collaborative effort across the border. The enactment of land resumption and compensation scheme is furthermore disturbed by lineage-based customary law, technocratic bureaucracy, intra-community conflicts and multi-scalar political mobilization. As many traces of colonial misfortune and tyranny have been whitewashed without proper management, the author argues that postcolonial justice is yet reconciled in this fragmented border landscape. The assemblage of border in mainstream representation has tended to oversimplify local struggles as a collective mist and setup a wider production of schizophrenia experiences in the discussion of further economic integration among Hong Kong and other mainland cities in the Pearl River Delta Region. The research is expected to shed new light on the theorizing of border regions and postcolonialism beyond Eurocentric perspectives. In reassembling the borderland experiences with other arrays in state governance, village organization and indigenous identities, the author also suggests an alternative epistemology in reconciling socio-spatial differences and opening up imaginaries for positive interventions.

Keywords: heritage conservation, indigenous communities, post-colonial borderland, regional development, rural sustainability

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Authors: Mariza Kaskara, Stella Girtsou, Maria Prodromou, Alexia Tsouni, Christodoulos Mettas, Stavroula Alatza, Kyriaki Fotiou, Marios Tzouvaras, Charalampos Kontoes, Diofantos Hadjimitsis

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Natural hazard assessment and monitoring are crucial in managing the risks associated with fires, floods, and geohazards, particularly in regions prone to these natural disasters, such as Greece and Cyprus. Recent advancements in technology, developed by the BEYOND Center of Excellence of the National Observatory of Athens, have been successfully applied in Greece and are now set to be transferred to Cyprus. The implementation of these advanced technologies in Greece has significantly improved the country's ability to respond to these natural hazards. For wildfire risk assessment, a scalar wildfire occurrence risk index is created based on the predictions of machine learning models. Predicting fire danger is crucial for the sustainable management of forest fires as it provides essential information for designing effective prevention measures and facilitating response planning for potential fire incidents. A reliable forecast of fire danger is a key component of integrated forest fire management and is heavily influenced by various factors that affect fire ignition and spread. The fire risk model is validated by the sensitivity and specificity metric. For flood risk assessment, a multi-faceted approach is employed, including the application of remote sensing techniques, the collection and processing of data from the most recent population and building census, technical studies and field visits, as well as hydrological and hydraulic simulations. All input data are used to create precise flood hazard maps according to various flooding scenarios, detailed flood vulnerability and flood exposure maps, which will finally produce the flood risk map. Critical points are identified, and mitigation measures are proposed for the worst-case scenario, namely, refuge areas are defined, and escape routes are designed. Flood risk maps can assist in raising awareness and save lives. Validation is carried out through historical flood events using remote sensing data and records from the civil protection authorities. For geohazards monitoring (e.g., landslides, subsidence), Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical satellite imagery are combined with geomorphological and meteorological data and other landslide/ground deformation contributing factors. To monitor critical infrastructures, including dams, advanced InSAR methodologies are used for identifying surface movements through time. Monitoring these hazards provides valuable information for understanding processes and could lead to early warning systems to protect people and infrastructure. Validation is carried out through both geotechnical expert evaluations and visual inspections. The success of these systems in Greece has paved the way for their transfer to Cyprus to enhance Cyprus's capabilities in natural hazard assessment and monitoring. This transfer is being made through capacity building activities, fostering continuous collaboration between Greek and Cypriot experts. Apart from the knowledge transfer, small demonstration actions are implemented to showcase the effectiveness of these technologies in real-world scenarios. In conclusion, the transfer of advanced natural hazard assessment technologies from Greece to Cyprus represents a significant step forward in enhancing the region's resilience to disasters. EXCELSIOR project funds knowledge exchange, demonstration actions and capacity-building activities and is committed to empower Cyprus with the tools and expertise to effectively manage and mitigate the risks associated with these natural hazards. Acknowledgement:Authors acknowledge the 'EXCELSIOR': ERATOSTHENES: Excellence Research Centre for Earth Surveillance and Space-Based Monitoring of the Environment H2020 Widespread Teaming project.

Keywords: earth observation, monitoring, natural hazards, remote sensing

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Authors: Charles W. MacQuarrie, Rachel R. Tatro Duarte

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This paper explores the representation of medieval identity within the world of games such as Dragon Age, Elden Ring, Hellblade: Senua’s sacrifice, fantasy role-playing games that draw effectively and problematically on Celtic and Norse mythologies. Focusing on tattoos, onomastics, and accent as visual and oral markers of status and ethnicity, this study analyzes how the game's interplay between mythology, character narratives, and visual storytelling enriches the themes and offers players an immersive, but sometimes baldly ahistorical, connection to ancient mythologies and contemporary digital storytelling. Dragon Age is a triple a game series, Hellblade Senua’s Sacrifice, and Elden Ring of gamers worldwide with its presentation of an idealized medieval world, inspired by the lore of Celtic and Norse mythologies. This paper sets out to explore the intricate relationships between tattoos, accent, and character narratives in the game, drawing parallels to themes,heroic figures and gods from Celtic and Norse mythologies. Tattoos as Mythic and Ethnic Markers: This study analyzes how tattoos in Dragon Age visually represent mythological elements from both Celtic and Norse cultures, serving as conduits of cultural identity and narratives. The nature of these tattoos reflects the slave, criminal, warrior associations made in classical and medieval literature, and some of the episodes concerning tattoos in the games have either close analogs or sources in literature. For example the elvish character Solas, in Dragon Age Inquisition, removes a slave tattoo from the face of a lower status elf in an episode that is reminiscent of Bridget removing the stigmata from Connallus in the Vita Prima of Saint Bridget Character Narratives: The paper examines how characters' personal narratives in the game parallel the archetypal journeys of Celtic heroes and Norse gods, with a focus on their relationships to mythic themes. In these games the Elves usually have Welsh or Irish accents, are close to nature, magically powerful, oppressed by apparently Anglo-Saxon humans and Norse dwarves, and these elves wear facial tattoos. The Welsh voices of fairies and demons is older than the reference in Shakespeare’s Merry Wives of Windsor or even the Anglo-Saxon Life of Saint Guthlac. The English speaking world, and the fantasy genre of literature and gaming, undoubtedly driven by Tolkien, see Elves as Welsh speakers, and as having Welsh accents when speaking English Comparative Analysis: A comparative approach is employed to reveal connections, adaptations, and unique interpretations of the motifs of tattoos and narrative themes in Dragon Age, compared to those found in Celtic and Norse mythologies. Methodology: The study uses a comparative approach to examine the similarities and distinctions between Celtic and Norse mythologies and their counterparts in video games. The analysis encompasses character studies, narrative exploration, visual symbolism, and the historical context of Celtic and Norse cultures. Mythic Visuals: This study showcases how tattoos, as visual symbols, encapsulate mythic narratives, beliefs, and cultural identity, echoing Celtic and Norse visual motifs. Archetypal Journeys: The paper analyzes how character arcs mirror the heroic journeys of Celtic and Norse mythological figures, allowing players to engage with mythic narratives on a personal level. Cultural Interplay: The study discusses how the game's portrayal of tattoos and narratives both preserves and reinterprets elements from Celtic and Norse mythologies, fostering a connection between ancient cultures and modern digital storytelling. Conclusion: By exploring the interconnectedness of tattoos and character narratives in Dragon Age, this paper reveals the game series' ability to act as a bridge between ancient mythologies and contemporary gaming. By drawing inspiration from Celtic heroes and Norse gods and translating them into digital narratives and visual motifs, Dragon Age offers players a multi-dimensional engagement with mythic themes and a unique lens through which to appreciate the enduring allure of these cultures.

Keywords: comparative analysis, character narratives, video games and literature, tattoos, immersive storytelling, character development, mythological influences, Celtic mythology, Norset mythology

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