Search results for: clinical prediction rule

Authors: Chico Horacio Jose Sambo

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Recently neural network has gained popularity when come to solve complex nonlinear problems. Permeability is one of fundamental reservoir characteristics system that are anisotropic distributed and non-linear manner. For this reason, permeability prediction from well log data is well suited by using neural networks and other computer-based techniques. The main goal of this paper is to predict reservoir permeability from well logs data by using neural network approach. A multi-layered perceptron trained by back propagation algorithm was used to build the predictive model. The performance of the model on net results was measured by correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient from testing, training, validation and all data sets was evaluated. The results show that neural network was capable of reproducing permeability with accuracy in all cases, so that the calculated correlation coefficients for training, testing and validation permeability were 0.96273, 0.89991 and 0.87858, respectively. The generalization of the results to other field can be made after examining new data, and a regional study might be possible to study reservoir properties with cheap and very fast constructed models.

Keywords: neural network, permeability, multilayer perceptron, well log

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Authors: Jao Jo-Chi, Chen Yen-Ku, Jaw Twei-Shiun, Chen Po-Chou

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This study aimed to investigate the magnetic resonance (MR) signal enhancement ratio (ER) of contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) in normal rats with gadobenate dimeglumine (Gd-BOPTA) using a clinical 3T scanner and an extremity coil. The relaxivities of Gd-BOPTA with saline only and with 4.5 % human serum albumin (HSA) were also measured. Compared with Gadolinium diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (Gd-DTPA), Gd-BOPTA had higher relaxivities. The maximum ER of Aorta (ERa), kidney, liver and muscle with Gd-BOPTA were higher than those with Gd-DTPA. The maximum ERa appeared at 1.2 min and decayed to half at 10 min after Gd-BOPTA injection. This information is helpful for the design of CE-MRA study of rats.

Keywords: contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance angiography, Gd-BOPTA, Gd-DTPA, rat

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Authors: Francisca Alves, Diana Figueiredo, Paula Vagos, Luiza Lima, Maria do Céu Salvador, Daniel Rijo

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In recent years, Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) has been shown to be effective in the treatment of numerous anxiety disorders, including social anxiety disorder (SAD). However, limited evidence exists on its therapeutic gains for adolescents with SAD. The current work presents a weekly 10-session manualized online ACT approach to adolescent SAD, being the first study to do so in a clinical sample of adolescents. The intervention ACT@TeenSAD addresses the six proposed processes of psychological inflexibility (i.e., experiential avoidance, cognitive fusion, lack of values clarity, unworkable action, dominance of the conceptualized past and future, attachment to the conceptualized self) in social situations relevant to adolescents (e.g., doing a presentation). It is organized into four modules. The first module explores the role of psychological (in)flexibility in SAD (session 1 and 2), addressing psychoeducation (i.e., functioning of the mind) according to ACT, the development of an individualized model, and creative hopelessness. The second module focuses on the foundation of psychological flexibility (session 3, 4, and 5), specifically on the development and practice of strategies to promote clarification of values, contact with the present moment, the observing self, defusion, and acceptance. The third module encompasses psychological flexibility in action (sessions 6, 7, 8, and 9), encouraging committed action based on values in social situations relevant to the adolescents. The fourth modules’ focus is the revision of gains and relapse prevention (session 10). This intervention further includes two booster sessions after therapy has ended (3 and 6-month follow-up) that aim to review the continued practice of learned abilities and to plan for their future application to potentially anxious social events. As part of an ongoing clinical trial, the intervention will be assessed on its feasibility with adolescents diagnosed with SAD and on its therapeutic efficacy based on a longitudinal design including pretreatment, posttreatment, 3 and 6-month follow-up. If promising, findings may support the online delivery of ACT interventions for SAD, contributing to increased treatment availability to adolescents. This availability of an effective therapeutic approach will be helpful not only in relation to adolescents who face obstacles (e.g., distance) when attending to face-to-face sessions but also particularly to adolescents with SAD, who are usually more reluctant to look for specialized treatment in public or private health facilities.

Keywords: acceptance and commitment therapy, social anxiety disorder, adolescence, manualized online approach

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Authors: Gail Louw, Helena Boshoff, Taeksun Song, Clifton Barry

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Drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis is primarily attributed to mutations in target genes. These mutations incur a fitness cost and result in bacterial generations that are less fit, which subsequently acquire compensatory mutations to restore fitness. We hypothesize that mutations in specific drug target genes influence bacterial metabolism and cellular function, which affects its ability to develop subsequent resistance to additional agents. We aim to determine whether the sequential acquisition of drug resistance and specific mutations in a well-defined clinical M. tuberculosis strain promotes or limits the development of additional resistance. In vitro mutants resistant to pretomanid, linezolid, moxifloxacin, rifampicin and kanamycin were generated from a pan-susceptible clinical strain from the Beijing lineage. The resistant phenotypes to the anti-TB agents were confirmed by the broth microdilution assay and genetic mutations were identified by targeted gene sequencing. Growth of mono-resistant mutants was done in enriched medium for 14 days to assess in vitro fitness. Double resistant mutants were generated against anti-TB drug combinations at concentrations 5x and 10x the minimum inhibitory concentration. Subsequently, mutation frequencies for these anti-TB drugs in the different mono-resistant backgrounds were determined. The initial level of resistance and the mutation frequencies observed for the mono-resistant mutants were comparable to those previously reported. Targeted gene sequencing revealed the presence of known and clinically relevant mutations in the mutants resistant to linezolid, rifampicin, kanamycin and moxifloxacin. Significant growth defects were observed for mutants grown under in vitro conditions compared to the sensitive progenitor. Mutation frequencies determination in the mono-resistant mutants revealed a significant increase in mutation frequency against rifampicin and kanamycin, but a significant decrease in mutation frequency against linezolid and sutezolid. This suggests that these mono-resistant mutants are more prone to develop resistance to rifampicin and kanamycin, but less prone to develop resistance against linezolid and sutezolid. Even though kanamycin and linezolid both inhibit protein synthesis, these compounds target different subunits of the ribosome, thereby leading to different outcomes in terms of fitness in the mutants with impaired cellular function. These observations showed that oxazolidinone treatment is instrumental in limiting the development of multi-drug resistance in M. tuberculosis in vitro.

Keywords: oxazolidinones, mutations, resistance, tuberculosis

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Authors: Marzieh Moattari Mitra Abbasi, Masoud Mousavinasab, Poorahmad

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Background: Nurses in their daily practice need to communicate with patients and their families as well as health professional team members. Effective communication contributes to patients’ satisfaction which is a fundamental outcome of nursing practice. There are some evidences in support of patients' dissatisfaction with nurses’ performance in communication process. Therefore improving nurses’ communication skills is a necessity for nursing scholars and nursing administrators. Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of a 2-days workshop on nurses’ competencies and performances in communication in a central hospital located in the sought of Iran. Materials and Method: This is a randomized controlled trial which comprised of a convenient sample of 70 eligible nurses, working in a central hospital. They were randomly divided into 2 experimental and control groups. Nurses’ competencies was measured by an Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) and their performance was measured by asking eligible patients hospitalized in the nurses work setting during a one month period to evaluate nurses' communication skills before and 2 months after intervention. The experimental group participated in a 2 day workshop on communication skills. Content included in this workshop were: the importance of communication (verbal and non verbal), basic communication skills such as initiating the communication, active listening and questioning technique. Other subjects were patient teaching, problem solving, and decision making, cross cultural communication and breaking bad news. Appropriate teaching strategies such as brief didactic sessions, small group discussion and reflection were applied to enhance participants learning. The data was analyzed using SPSS 16. Result: A significant between group differences was found in nurses’ communication skills competencies and performances in the posttest. The mean scores of the experimental group was higher than that of the control group in the total score of OSCE as well as all stations of OSCE (p<0.003). Overall posttest mean scores of patient satisfaction with nurse's communication skills and all of its four dimensions significantly differed between the two groups of the study (p<0.001). Conclusion: This study shows that the education of nurses in communication skills, improves their competencies and performances. Measurement of Nurses’ communication skills as a central component of efficient nurse patient relationship by valid and reliable methods of evaluation is recommended. Also it is necessary to integrate teaching of communication skills in continuing nursing education programs. Trial Registration Number: IRCT201204042621N11

Keywords: communication skills, simulation, performance, competency, objective structure, clinical evaluation

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Authors: Neslihan Cetin

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In this study, we will aim to analyze how the period of the state of emergency in Turkey lead to gaps in law and the formation of areas in which there was a complete lack of supervision. The state of emergency that was proclaimed following the coup attempt of July 15, 2016, continued until July 18, 2018, that is to say, 2 years, without taking into account whether the initial circumstances persisted. As part of this work, we claim that the state of emergency provided the executive power with important tools for governing, which it took constant use. We can highlight how the concern for security at the center of the basic considerations of the people in a city was exploited as a foundation by the military power in Turkey to interfere in the political, legal, and social spheres. The constitutions of 1924, 1961, and 1982 entrusted the army with the role of protector of the integrity of the state. This became an instrument at the hands of the military to legitimize their interventions in the name of public security. Its interventions in the political field are indeed politically motivated. The constitution, the legislative, and regulatory systems are modified and monopolized by the military power that dominates the legislative, regulatory, and judicial power, leading to a state of exception. With the political convulsions over a decade, the government was able to usurp the instrument called the state of exception. In particular, the decree-laws of the state of emergency, which the executive makes frequent and generally abusive use, became instruments in the hands of the government to take measures that it wishes to escape from the rules and the pre-established control mechanisms. Thus the struggle against the political opposition becomes more unbalanced and destructive. To this must also be added the ineffectiveness of ex-post controls and domestic remedies. This research allows us to stress how a legal concept, such as ‘the state of emergency’ can be politically exploited to make it a legal weapon that continues to produce victims.

Keywords: constitutional law, state of emergency, rule of law, instrumentalization of law

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Authors: Vinai K. Singh

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In Neural Network-based Learning techniques, there are several models of Convolutional Networks. Whenever the methods are deployed with large datasets, only then can their applicability and appropriateness be determined. Clinical and pathological pictures of lobular carcinoma are thought to exhibit a large number of random formations and textures. Working with such pictures is a difficult problem in machine learning. Focusing on wet laboratories and following the outcomes, numerous studies have been published with fresh commentaries in the investigation. In this research, we provide a framework that can operate effectively on raw photos of various resolutions while easing the issues caused by the existence of patterns and texturing. The suggested approach produces very good findings that may be used to make decisions in the diagnosis of cancer.

Keywords: lobular carcinoma, convolutional neural networks (CNN), deep learning, histopathological imagery scans

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Authors: Punit Kumar, Niraj Kumar

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The traction behavior of lubricants with the linear pressure-viscosity response in EHL line contacts is investigated numerically for smooth as well as rough surfaces. The analysis involves the simultaneous solution of Reynolds, elasticity and energy equations along with the computation of lubricant properties and surface temperatures. The temperature modified Doolittle-Tait equations are used to calculate viscosity and density as functions of fluid pressure and temperature, while Carreau model is used to describe the lubricant rheology. The surface roughness is assumed to be sinusoidal and it is present on the nearly stationary surface in near-pure sliding EHL conjunction. The linear P-V oil is found to yield much lower traction coefficients and slightly thicker EHL films as compared to the synthetic oil for a given set of dimensionless speed and load parameters. Besides, the increase in traction coefficient attributed to surface roughness is much lower for the former case. The present analysis emphasizes the importance of employing realistic pressure-viscosity response for accurate prediction of EHL traction.

Keywords: EHL, linear pressure-viscosity, surface roughness, traction, water/glycol

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Authors: L. Korpinen, P. Taskinen, P. Rautio

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This study aimed to describe procedures that we developed to use in the quantitative, bone-specific SPECT/CT at our hospital. Our procedures included the following questions for choosing imaging protocols, which were based on a clinical doctor's referral: (1) Is she/he a cancer patient or not? (2) Are there any indications of inflammatory rheumatoid arthritis? We performed about 1,106 skeletal scintigraphies over two years. About 394 patients were studied with quantitative bone-specific single-photon emission computed tomography/computerized tomography (SPECT/CT) (i.e., about 36% of all bone scintigraphies). Approximately 64% of the patients were studied using the conventional Anterior-Posterior/Posterior-Anterior imaging. Our procedure has improved efficiency and decreased cycle times.

Keywords: skeletal scintigraphy, SPECT/CT, imaging, procedure

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Authors: Erez Kita, Gil Luria

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This study examines gender as a boundary condition for the relationship between the psychological variable of mindfulness and the social variable of income with regards to the use of smartphones by young drivers. The use of smartphones while driving increases the likelihood of a car accident, endangering young drivers and other road users. The study sample included 186 young drivers who were legally permitted to drive without supervision. The subjects were first asked to complete questionnaires on mindfulness and income. Next, their smartphone use while driving was monitored over a one-month period. This study is unique as it used an objective smartphone monitoring application (rather than self-reporting) to count the number of times the young participants actually touched their smartphones while driving. The findings show that gender moderates the effects of social and personal factors (i.e., income and mindfulness) on the use of smartphones while driving. The pattern of moderation was similar for both social and personal factors. For men, mindfulness and income are negatively associated with the use of smartphones while driving. These factors are not related to the use of smartphones by women drivers. Mindfulness and income can be used to identify male populations that are at risk of using smartphones while driving. Interventions that improve mindfulness can be used to reduce the use of smartphones by male drivers.

Keywords: mindfulness, using smartphones while driving, income, gender, young drivers

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Authors: Zoaib Mirza

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Pakistan is an Islamic country that got its partition from India in 1947 so that the people could practice the religion of Islam. The ideology of Pakistan was based on the notion that sovereignty only belonged to God Almighty (in Arabic, God means “Allah”), and Muslims will live in accordance with Islam principles. The Quran (Holy Book) and Sunnah (authentic practices of Prophet Mohammad, Peace Be Upon Him, that explains the application of the Quran) are foundations of the Islamic principles. It has been over 75 years, but unfortunately, Pakistan, due to its own political, social, and economic mistakes, is responsible for not being able to become a true Islamic nation to justify its partition from India. The rationale for writing this paper is to analyze the factors that led to changes in the democratic movements impacting the country's political, social, and economic growth. The methodology to examine the historical and political context of Pakistan’s history is by referencing the scholarly work of Israr Ahmed, a Pakistani Islamic theologian, philosopher, and Islamic scholar. While from a Western perspective, Karl Marx, Mar Weber, Hannah Arendt, Sheldon Wolin, Paulo Freire, and Jacques Ranciere's philosophies specific to totalitarianism, politics, military rule, religion, capitalism, and superpower are used as the framework to analyze Pakistan’s democracy. The study's findings conclude that Pakistan's democracy is unstable and has been impacted by military and civilian governance, which led to political, social, and economic downfall. To improve the current situation, the citizens of Pakistan have to realize that the success of a nation is only dependent on the level of consciousness of the leader and not the political system. Therefore, it is the responsibility of every citizen to be conscious of how they select their leader and take responsibility for the current situation in Pakistan.

Keywords: Pakistan, Islam, democracy, totalitarianism, military, religion, capitalism

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Authors: Andrew Laming, John Hattie, Mark Wilson

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Nine Queensland Independent high schools provided deidentified student-matched ATAR and NAPLAN data for all 1217 ATAR graduates since 2020 who also sat NAPLAN at the school. Graduating cohorts from the nine schools contained a mean 100 ATAR graduates with previous NAPLAN data from their school. Excluded were vocational students (mean=27) and any ATAR graduates without NAPLAN data (mean=20). Based on Index of Community Socio-Educational Access (ICSEA) prediction, all schools had larger that predicted proportions of their students graduating with ATARs. There were an additional 173 students not releasing their ATARs to their school (14%), requiring this data to be inferred by schools. Gain was established by first converting each student’s strongest NAPLAN domain to a statewide percentile, then subtracting this result from final ATAR. The resulting ‘percentile shift’ was corrected for plausible ATAR participation at each NAPLAN level. Strongest NAPLAN domain had the highest correlation with ATAR (R2=0.58). RESULTS School mean NAPLAN scores fitted ICSEA closely (R2=0.97). Schools achieved a mean cohort gain of two ATAR rankings, but only 66% of students gained. This ranged from 46% of top-NAPLAN decile students gaining, rising to 75% achieving gains outside the top decile. The 54% of top-decile students whose ATAR fell short of prediction lost a mean 4.0 percentiles (or 6.2 percentiles prior to correction for regression to the mean). 71% of students in smaller schools gained, compared to 63% in larger schools. NAPLAN variability in each of the 13 ICSEA1100 cohorts was 17%, with both intra-school and inter-school variation of these values extremely low (0.3% to 1.8%). Mean ATAR change between years in each school was just 1.1 ATAR ranks. This suggests consecutive school cohorts and ICSEA-similar schools share very similar distributions and outcomes over time. Quantile analysis of the NAPLAN/ATAR revealed heteroscedasticity, but splines offered little additional benefit over simple linear regression. The NAPLAN/ATAR R2 was 0.33. DISCUSSION Standardised data like NAPLAN and ATAR offer educators a simple no-cost progression metric to analyse performance in conjunction with their internal test results. Change is expressed in percentiles, or ATAR shift per student, which is layperson intuitive. Findings may also reduce ATAR/vocational stream mismatch, reveal proportions of cohorts meeting or falling short of expectation and demonstrate by how much. Finally, ‘crashed’ ATARs well below expectation are revealed, which schools can reasonably work to minimise. The percentile shift method is neither value-add nor a growth percentile. In the absence of exit NAPLAN testing, this metric is unable to discriminate academic gain from legitimate ATAR-maximizing strategies. But by controlling for ICSEA, ATAR proportion variation and student mobility, it uncovers progression to ATAR metrics which are not currently publicly available. However achieved, ATAR maximisation is a sought-after private good. So long as standardised nationwide data is available, this analysis offers useful analytics for educators and reasonable predictivity when counselling subsequent cohorts about their ATAR prospects.  

Keywords: NAPLAN, ATAR, analytics, measurement, gain, performance, data, percentile, value-added, high school, numeracy, reading comprehension, variability, regression to the mean

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Authors: B. K. Manjunatha Goud, Aruna Chanu Oinam

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The undergraduate medical curriculum is oriented towards training the students to undertake the responsibilities of a physician. During the training period, adequate emphasis is placed on inculcating logical and scientific habits of thought; clarity of expression and independence of judgment; and ability to collect and analyze information and to correlate them. At Ras Al Khaimah Medical and Health Sciences University (RAKMHSU), Biochemistry a basic medical science subject is taught in the 1st year of 5 years medical course with vertical interdisciplinary interaction with all subjects, which needs to be taught and learned adequately by the students to be related to clinical case or clinical problem in medicine and future diagnostics so that they can practice confidently and skillfully in the community. Based on these facts study was done to know the extent of usage of library resources by the students and the impact of study materials on their preparation for examination. It was a comparative cross sectional study included 100 and 80 1st and 2nd-year students who had successfully completed Biochemistry course. The purpose of the study was explained to all students [participants]. Information was collected on a pre-designed, pre-tested and self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire was validated by the senior faculties and pre tested on students who were not involved in the study. The study results showed that 80.30% and 93.15% of 1st and 2nd year students have the clear idea of course outline given in course handout or study guide. We also found a statistically significant number of students agreed that they were benefited from the practical session and writing notes in the class hour. A high percentage of students [50% and 62.02%] disagreed that that reading only the handouts is enough for their examination as compared to other students. The study also showed that only 35% and 41% of students visited the library on daily basis for the learning process, around 65% of students were using lecture notes and text books as a tool for learning and to understand the subject and 45% and 53% of students used the library resources (recommended text books) compared to online sources before the examinations. The results presented here show that students perceived that e-learning resources like power point presentations along with text book reading using SQ4R technique had made a positive impact on various aspects of their learning in Biochemistry. The use of library by students has overall positive impact on learning process especially in medical field enhances the outcome, and medical students are better equipped to treat the patient. But it’s also true that use of library use has been in decline which will impact the knowledge aspects and outcome. In conclusion, a student has to be taught how to use the library as learning tool apart from lecture handouts.

Keywords: medical education, learning resources, study guide, biochemistry

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Authors: Abbas Shafiee, Mohammad Taghi Ahmadian, Maryam Hoviattalab

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The biomechanical behavior of brain tissue is needed for predicting the traumatic brain injury (TBI). Each year over 1.5 million people sustain a TBI in the USA. The appropriate coefficients for injury prediction can be evaluated using experimental data. In this study, an experimental setup on brain soft tissue was developed to perform unconfined compression tests at quasistatic strain rates ∈0.0004 s-1 and 0.008 s-1 and 0.4 stress relaxation test under unconfined uniaxial compression with ∈ 0.67 s-1 ramp rate. The fitted visco-hyperelastic parameters were utilized by using obtained stress-strain curves. The experimental data was validated using finite element analysis (FEA) and previous findings. Also, influence of friction coefficient on unconfined compression and relaxation test and effect of ramp rate in relaxation test is investigated. Results of the findings are implemented on the analysis of a human brain under high acceleration due to impact.

Keywords: brain soft tissue, visco-hyperelastic, finite element analysis (FEA), friction, quasistatic strain rate

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Authors: Meral Huri, Sedef Şahin

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Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is characterized by psychiatric symptoms and triggered by a terrifying experience which may immediately effect cognitive, affective, behavioral and social skills of the individual. One of the most common noncutaneous cancer among men is prostate cancer. The incidence of psychological stress is quite common in men with prostate cancer. The aim of the study was to explore the PTSD frequency among prostate cancer and define the relationship between occupational participation, coping skills and level of perceived social support among patients with prostate cancer. Forty patients diagnosed with prostate cancer were included in the study. After dividing the patients into two groups ( study/ control) according to type of tumor, we recorded their characteristics and evaluations differences. We evaluated the demographic information form, Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID- I)- Clinical Version for PTSD, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, Styles of Coping Inventory and Canadian Occupational Performance Measure (COPM) before and after 1 month from surgery. The mean age of the study group (n:18) was 65.85.6 years (range: 61-79 years). The mean age of the control group (n: 22) was a little bit higher than the study group with mean age 71.3±6.9 years (range: 60-85 years). There was no statistically significant difference between the groups for age and the other characteristics. According to the results of the study, statistically significant difference was found between the level of PTSD of study and the control group. 22% of study group showed PTSD while 13% of the control group showed PTSD (r: 0.02, p<0.001). The scores of study group and control group showed statistically significant difference in five sub-categories of Styles of Coping Inventory. Patients with prostate cancer showed decreased scores in optimistic, seeking social supports and self-confident approach, while increased scores in helpless and submissive sub-categories than the control group (p<0.001). The scores of Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Supports of study group and control group showed statistically significant difference. The total perceived social supports score of the study group was 71.34 ± 0.75 while it was 75.34 ± 0.64 for the control group. Total and the sub-category scores of study group were statistically significant lower than the control group. According to COPM, mean scores of occupational participation of study group for occupational performance were 4.32±2.24 and 7.01±1.52 for the control group, respectively). Mean Satisfaction scores were 3,22±2.31 and 7.45±1.74 for the study and control group, respectively. The patients with prostate cancer and benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) did not show any statistically difference in activity performance (r:0.87) while patients with prostate cancer showed statistically lower scores than the patients with BPH in activity satisfaction (r:0.02, p<0.001).Psycho-social occupational therapy interventions might help to decrease the prevalence of PTSD by increasing associated factors such as the social support perception, using coping skills and activity participation of patients with prostate cancer.

Keywords: activity performance, occupational therapy, posttraumatic stress disorder, prostate cancer

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Authors: Ying Su, Morgan C. Wang

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Long-term time series forecasting is an important research area for automated machine learning (AutoML). Currently, forecasting based on either machine learning or statistical learning is usually built by experts, and it requires significant manual effort, from model construction, feature engineering, and hyper-parameter tuning to the construction of the time series model. Automation is not possible since there are too many human interventions. To overcome these limitations, this article proposed to use recurrent neural networks (RNN) through the memory state of RNN to perform long-term time series prediction. We have shown that this proposed approach is better than the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, we also found it is better than other network systems, including Fully Connected Neural Networks (FNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks (NPCNN).

Keywords: automated machines learning, autoregressive integrated moving average, neural networks, time series analysis

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Authors: Yogesh Kumar Singh, T. S. Murugesh Prabhu, Upasana Dutta, Girishchandra Yendargaye, Rahul Yadav, Rohini Gopinath Kale, Binay Kumar, Manoj Khare

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The Indian subcontinent is severely affected by floods that cause intense irreversible devastation to crops and livelihoods. With increased incidences of floods and their related catastrophes, an Early Warning System for Flood Prediction and an efficient Flood Management System for the river basins of India is a must. Accurately modeled hydrological conditions and a web-based early warning system may significantly reduce economic losses incurred due to floods and enable end users to issue advisories with better lead time. This study describes the design and development of an EWS-FP using advanced computational tools/methods, viz. High-Performance Computing (HPC), Remote Sensing, GIS technologies, and open-source tools for the Mahanadi River Basin of India. The flood prediction is based on a robust 2D hydrodynamic model, which solves shallow water equations using the finite volume method. Considering the complexity of the hydrological modeling and the size of the basins in India, it is always a tug of war between better forecast lead time and optimal resolution at which the simulations are to be run. High-performance computing technology provides a good computational means to overcome this issue for the construction of national-level or basin-level flash flood warning systems having a high resolution at local-level warning analysis with a better lead time. High-performance computers with capacities at the order of teraflops and petaflops prove useful while running simulations on such big areas at optimum resolutions. In this study, a free and open-source, HPC-based 2-D hydrodynamic model, with the capability to simulate rainfall run-off, river routing, and tidal forcing, is used. The model was tested for a part of the Mahanadi River Basin (Mahanadi Delta) with actual and predicted discharge, rainfall, and tide data. The simulation time was reduced from 8 hrs to 3 hrs by increasing CPU nodes from 45 to 135, which shows good scalability and performance enhancement. The simulated flood inundation spread and stage were compared with SAR data and CWC Observed Gauge data, respectively. The system shows good accuracy and better lead time suitable for flood forecasting in near-real-time. To disseminate warning to the end user, a network-enabled solution is developed using open-source software. The system has query-based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. System effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to floods, like displaying spatial maps of the area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of the damage.

Keywords: flood, modeling, HPC, FOSS

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Authors: Ramakrishna Rao Mamidi

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It is essential for Surface Mounted Permanent Magnet (SMPM) generators to determine the performance prediction and analyze the magnet’s air gap flux density wave shape. The flux density wave shape is neither a pure sine wave or square wave nor a combination. This is due to the variation of air gap reluctance between the stator and permanent magnets. The stator slot openings and the number of slots make the wave shape highly complicated. To reduce the complexity of analysis, approximations are made to the wave shape using Fourier analysis. In contrast to the traditional integration method, the Fourier coefficients, an and bn, are obtained by direct search method optimization. The wave shape with optimized coefficients gives a wave shape close to the desired wave shape. Harmonics amplitudes are worked out and compared with initial values. It can be concluded that the direct search method can be used for estimating Fourier coefficients for irregular wave shapes.

Keywords: direct search, flux plot, fourier analysis, permanent magnets

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Authors: G. Melo, J. Felix, S. Maciel, C. Fernandes, W. Rodrigues

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In Brazilian public policy, the Centres of Reference for Social Assistance (CRAS in Portuguese) are part of the Unified Social Assistance System (SUAS in Portuguese). SUAS is responsible for addressing spontaneous or currently active cases that are brought forth from other services in the social assistance network. The following case was reviewed by CRAS’s team in Recife, Brazil, after a complaint of child abuse was filed against the mother of a 7-year-old girl by the girl’s aunt. The girl is the daughter of an incestuous relationship between her mother and her older brother. The complaint was registered by service staff and five interventions were subsequently carried out on behalf of the child. These interventions provided a secure place for dialogue with both the child and her family and allowed for an investigation of the abuse to proceed. They took place in the child’s school as well as her aunt’s residence. At school, the child (with her classmates) watched a video and listened to a song about the prevention of child abuse. This was followed up with a second intervention to determine any signs of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), by having the child play with the mobile app ‘My Angela’. Books on the themes of family and fear were also read to the child on different occasions at her school – after every intervention she was asked to draw something related to fear and her concept of a family. After the interventions and discussing the case as a team, we reached several conclusions: 1) The child did not appear to show any symptoms of PTSD; 2) She normally fantasized about her future and life story; 3) She did not allow herself to be touched by strangers with whom she lacks a close relationship (such as classmates or her teacher); 4) Through her drawings, she reproduced the conversations she had had with the staff; 5) She habitually covered her drawings when asked questions about the abuse. In this particular clinical case, we want to highlight that the role of the Psychologist’s intervention at CRAS is to attempt to resolve the issue promptly (and not to develop a prolonged clinical study based on traditional methods), by making use of the available tools from the social assistance network, and by making referrals to the relevant authorities, such as the Public Ministry, so that final protective actions can be taken and enforced. In this case, the Guardian Council of the Brazilian Public Ministry was asked to transfer the custody of the child to her uncle. The mother of the child was sent to a CAPS (Centre for Psychosocial Care), having been diagnosed with psychopathology. The child would then participate in NGO programs that allow for a gradual reduction of social exposure to her mother before being transferred to her uncle’s custody in Sao Paulo.

Keywords: child abuse, intervention, social psychology, violence

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Authors: H. Naseh, M. Mirshams, M. Mirdamadian, H. R. Fazeley

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This paper presents an extension of fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology that could effectively be used to find the overall satisfaction of objective functions (selecting the design variables) in the early stages of design process. The coupling of objective functions due to design variables in an engineering design process will result in difficulties in design optimization problems. In many cases, decision making on design variables conflicts with more than one discipline in system design. In space launch system conceptual design, decision making on some design variable (e.g. oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate O/F) in early stages of the design process is related to objective of liquid propellant engine (specific impulse) and Tanks (structure weight). Then, the primary application of this methodology is the design of a liquid propellant engine with the maximum specific impulse and cylindrical stiffened tank with the minimum weight. To this end, the design problem is established the fuzzy rule set based on designer's expert knowledge with a holistic approach. The independent design variables in this model are oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate, thickness of stringers, thickness of rings, shell thickness. To handle the mentioned problems, a fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology is developed based on Pareto optimal set. Consequently, this methodology is modeled with the one stage of space launch system to illustrate accuracy and efficiency of proposed methodology.

Keywords: cylindrical stiffened tanks, multi-objective, genetic algorithm, fuzzy approach

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Authors: Rahmadanih, Sitti Bulkis, A. Amrullah, R. M. Rukka, N. M. Viantika

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Food security is still a global issue, including in Indonesia. In South Sulawesi, this issue also occurs in members of farmer groups/women farmer groups. This study aims to (1) describe the implementation of strengthening institutional model of Women Farmer Groups (WFG) and (2) analyzing the capacity building of WFG members in order to develop food security after the implementations on institutional model. The research was conducted in Bulukumba and Luwu Utara District, South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The research was designed with qualitative and quantitative (mixed) method. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interview and Focus Group Discussion (FGD); while quantitative data collected through a household survey of WGF members. Two WGF were selected they are WFG in Bulukumba and WGF in Luwu Utara District. Both WGF has been selected as the case unit, which consisting of 60 households. Institutional strengthening model that been implemented is a combination model of (1) institutional support and (2) capacity development of WGF members. The model of institutional support aim is to develop food security could be achieved through facilitation on produce banana chips (initiate a business group formation) and preparation of institution rule (AD/ART). (2) The developing Model of WFG members capacity building are (a) technical training of banana chips producing process, also food and nutrition counseling as well as the utilization of the yard, (b) processing of food products from their yards. Food and nutrition knowledge of WFG members was increased about 30% - 60% and accompanied by the development of households’ food security by 6.7% - 10.0%.; when compared to last year percentage.

Keywords: food security, institutional strengthening, model implementation, women farmer group

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Authors: Tianle Yang

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As a common mental disorder, depression is a leading cause of various diseases worldwide. Early detection and treatment of depression can dramatically promote remission and prevent relapse. However, conventional ways of depression diagnosis require considerable human effort and cause economic burden, while still being prone to misdiagnosis. On the other hand, recent studies report that physical characteristics are major contributors to the diagnosis of depression, which inspires us to mine the internal relationship by neural networks instead of relying on clinical experiences. In this paper, neural networks are constructed to predict depression from physical characteristics. Two initialization methods are examined - Xaiver and Kaiming initialization. Experimental results show that a 3-layers neural network with Kaiming initialization achieves 83% accuracy.

Keywords: depression, neural network, Xavier initialization, Kaiming initialization

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Authors: Prachi Chavda

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The world, as of today, is smaller than it was for those who lived few decades ago. Internet, media and telecommunications have impacted the world like never before. Culture is the pillar upon which a society mushrooms. A culture develops with human creativity over the years and also by the exchange and intermixing of ideas and way of life across different civilizations and we can say that one of the influencing medium of exchange and intermixing of these ideas is cinema. Cinema has been the wonderful as well as important medium of communication since it has been emerged. Change is the thumb rule of life and so have been Indian cinema. As society has evolved from time to time so has the stories of Indian Cinema and its characters, hence it directly effects to the Indian culture as cinema has been very strong mediator for information exchange. The paper tries to discuss deeply how Indian cinema (reel life) and Indian culture (real life) has been influencing each other that results into a constant modification in both. Moreover, the research tries to deal with the issue with some examples that as a outcome how movies impact the Indian culture positively and negatively on culture. Therefore, it spreads the wave of change in cultural settings of society. The paper also tries to light the psychology of youth of India. Today, children and youth greatly admire the ostentatious materialistic display of outfits and style of the actors in the movies. Also, the movies bearing romanticism and showcasing disputatious issues like pre-marital sex, live-in relationship, homo-sexuality etc. though without highlighting them extensively have indeed inspired the commoners. Pros and cons always exist. Such revelation of issues certainly give a spark in the minds of those who are in their formative years and the effect of which is seen with the passage of time Thus, we can say that emergence of cinema as a strong tool of social change as well as culture as a triggering factor for transformation in cinema. As, a finding we can say that culture and cinema of India are influencing factors for each other. Cinema and culture are two sides of a coin, where both are responsible for evolution of each other.

Keywords: cinema, culture, influence, transformation

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

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This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: Ergun Guntekin

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This study investigated elastic constants of scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) grown in Turkey by means of ultrasonic waves. Three Young’s modulus, three shear modulus and six Poisson ratios were determined at constant moisture content (12 %). Three longitudinal and six shear wave velocities propagating along the principal axes of anisotropy, and additionally, three quasi-shear wave velocities at 45° with respect to the principal axes of anisotropy were measured using EPOCH 650 ultrasonic flaw detector. The measured average longitudinal wave velocities for the sapwood in L, R, T directions were 4795, 1713 and 1117 m/s, respectively. The measured average shear wave velocities ranged from 682 to 1382 m/s. The measured quasi-shear wave velocities varied between 642 and 1280 m/s. The calculated average modulus of elasticity values for the sapwood in L, R, T directions were 11913, 1565 and 663 N/mm2, respectively. The calculated shear modulus in LR, LT and RT planes were 1031, 541, 415 N/mm2. Comparing with available literature, the predicted elastic constants are acceptable.

Keywords: elastic constants, prediction, Scots pine, ultrasound

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, I Dewa Gde Sathya Deva

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Wolbachia is recently developed as the natural enemy of Dengue virus (DENV). It inhibits the replication of DENV in Aedes aegypti. Both DENV and its vector, Aedes aegypty, are sensitive to climate factor especially temperature. The changing of climate has a direct impact on temperature which means changing the vector transmission. Temperature has been known to effect Wolbachia density as it has an ideal temperature to grow. Some scenarios, which are known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), have been developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to predict the future climate based on greenhouse gases concentration. These scenarios are applied to mitigate the future change of Aedes aegypti migration and how Wolbachia could control the virus. The prediction will determine the schemes to release Wolbachia-injected Aedes aegypti to reduce DENV transmission.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, climate change, dengue virus, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, representative concentration pathways, Wolbachia

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Farahnaz Amini, Woo Yun Kin, Lazwani Kolandaiveloo

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Availability of different genetic tests after completion of Human Genome Project increases the physicians’ responsibility to keep themselves update on the potential implementation of these genetic tests in their daily practice. However, due to numbers of barriers, still many of physicians are not either aware of these tests or are not willing to offer or refer their patients for genetic tests. This study was conducted an anonymous, cross-sectional, mailed-based survey to develop a primary data of Malaysian physicians’ level of knowledge and perception of gene profiling. Questionnaire had 29 questions. Total scores on selected questions were used to assess the level of knowledge. The highest possible score was 11. Descriptive statistics, one way ANOVA and chi-squared test was used for statistical analysis. Sixty three completed questionnaires was returned by 27 general practitioners (GPs) and 36 medical specialists. Responders’ age range from 24 to 55 years old (mean 30.2 ± 6.4). About 40% of the participants rated themselves as having poor level of knowledge in genetics in general whilst 60% believed that they have fair level of knowledge. However, almost half (46%) of the respondents felt that they were not knowledgeable about available genetic tests. A majority (94%) of the responders were not aware of any lab or company which is offering gene profiling services in Malaysia. Only 4% of participants were aware of using gene profiling for detection of dosage of some drugs. Respondents perceived greater utility of gene profiling for breast cancer (38%) compared to the colorectal familial cancer (3%). The score of knowledge ranged from 2 to 8 (mean 4.38 ± 1.67). Non-significant differences between score of knowledge of GPs and specialists were observed, with score of 4.19 and 4.58 respectively. There was no significant association between any demographic factors and level of knowledge. However, those who graduated between years 2001 to 2005 had higher level of knowledge. Overall, 83% of participants showed relatively high level of perception on value of gene profiling to detect patient’s risk of disease. However, low perception was observed for both statements of using gene profiling for general population in order to alter their lifestyle (25%) as well as having the full sequence of a patient genome for the purpose of determining a patient’s best match for treatment (18%). The lack of clinical guidelines, limited provider knowledge and awareness, lack of time and resources to educate patients, lack of evidence-based clinical information and cost of tests were the most barriers of ordering gene profiling mentioned by physicians. In conclusion Malaysian physicians who participate in this study had mediocre level of knowledge and awareness in gene profiling. The low exposure to the genetic questions and problems might be a key predictor of lack of awareness and knowledge on available genetic tests. Educational and training workshop might be useful in helping Malaysian physicians incorporate genetic profiling into practice for eligible patients.

Keywords: gene profiling, knowledge, Malaysia, physician

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Authors: Cecile Garry, Katia Rovira, Julie Brisson

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is defined by a qualitative and quantitative impairment of social interaction. Indeed early intervention programs, such as the Early Start Denver Model (ESDM), aimed at encouraging the development of social skills. In classroom, the children need to be socially engaged to learn. Early intervention programs can thus be implemented in kindergarten schools. In these schools, ASD children have more opportunities to interact with their peers or adults than in elementary schools. However, the preschool children with ASD are less socially engaged than their typically developing peers in the classroom. They initiate, respond and maintain less the social interactions. In addition, they produce more responses than initiations. When they interact, the non verbal communication is more used than verbal or symbolic communication forms and they are more engaged with adults than with peers. Nevertheless, communicative patterns may vary according to the clinical profiles of ASD children. Indeed, the ASD children with better cognitive skills interact more with their peers and use more symbolic communication than the ASD children with a low cognitive level. ASD children with the less severe symptoms use more the verbal communication than ASD children with the more severe symptoms. Small groups and structured activities encourage coordinated joint engagement episodes in ASD children. Our goal is to evaluate ASD children’s social engagement development in class, with their peers or adults, during dyadic or group activities. Participants were 19 preschool children with ASD aged from 3 to 6 years old that benefited of an early intervention in special kindergarten schools. Severity of ASD symptoms was measured with the CARS at the beginning of the follow-up. Classroom situations of interaction were recorded during 10 minutes (5 minutes of dyadic interaction and 5 minutes of a group activity), every 2 months, during 10 months. Social engagement behaviors of children, including initiations, responses and imitation, directed to a peer or an adult, were then coded. The Observer software (Noldus) that allows to annotate behaviors was the coding system used. A double coding was conducted and revealed a good inter judges fidelity. Results show that ASD children were more often and longer socially engaged in dyadic than in groups situations. They were also more engaged with adults than with peers. Children with the less severe symptoms of ASD were more socially engaged in groups situations than children with the more severe symptoms of ASD. Then, ASD children with the less severe symptoms of ASD were more engaged with their peers than ASD children with the more severe symptoms of ASD. However, the engagement frequency increased during the 10 month of follow-up but only for ASD children with the more severe symptoms at the beginning. To conclude, these results highlighted the necessity of individualizing early intervention programs according to the clinical profile of the child.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, preschool children, developmental psychology, early interventions, social interactions

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Authors: X. Lu, T. Lu, S. Javadi

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A simple dynamic approach is presented for analyzing thermal and moisture dynamics of buildings, which is of particular relevance to understanding climate change impacts on buildings, including assessment of risks and applications of resilience strategies. With the goal to demonstrate the proposed modeling methodology, to verify the model, and to show that wooden materials provide a mechanism that can facilitate the reduction of moisture risks and be more resilient to global warming, a wooden church equipped with high precision measurement systems was taken as a test building for full-scale time-series measurements. Sensitivity analyses indicate a high degree of accuracy in the model prediction regarding the indoor environment. The model is then applied to a future projection of climate indoors aiming to identify significant environmental factors, the changing temperature and humidity, and effective response to the climate change impacts. The paper suggests that wooden building materials offer an effective and resilient response to anticipated future climate changes.

Keywords: dynamic model, forecast, climate change impact, wooden structure, buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Marina Franulovic, Robert Basan, Bozidar Krizan

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Constitutive modelling of material behaviour is becoming increasingly important in prediction of possible failures in highly loaded engineering components, and consequently, optimization of their design. In order to account for large number of phenomena that occur in the material during operation, such as kinematic hardening effect in low cycle fatigue behaviour of steels, complex nonlinear material models are used ever more frequently, despite of the complexity of determination of their parameters. As a method for the determination of these parameters, genetic algorithm is good choice because of its capability to provide very good approximation of the solution in systems with large number of unknown variables. For the application of genetic algorithm to parameter identification, inverse analysis must be primarily defined. It is used as a tool to fine-tune calculated stress-strain values with experimental ones. In order to choose proper objective function for inverse analysis among already existent and newly developed functions, the research is performed to investigate its influence on material behaviour modelling.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, kinematic hardening, material model, objective function

Procedia PDF Downloads 320