Search results for: sequential decision making
6899 Theoretical Appraisal of Satisfactory Decision: Uncertainty, Evolutionary Ideas and Beliefs, Satisfactory Time Use
Authors: Okay Gunes
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Unsatisfactory experiences due to an information shortage regarding the future pay-offs of actual choices, yield satisficing decision-making. This research will examine, for the first time in the literature, the motivation behind suboptimal decisions due to uncertainty by subjecting Adam Smith’s and Jeremy Bentham’s assumptions about the nature of the actions that lead to satisficing behavior, in order to clarify the theoretical background of a “consumption-based satisfactory time” concept. The contribution of this paper with respect to the existing literature is threefold: Firstly, it is showed in this paper that Adam Smith’s uncertainty is related to the problem of the constancy of ideas and not related directly to beliefs. Secondly, possessions, as in Jeremy Bentham’s oeuvre, are assumed to be just as pleasing, as protecting and improving the actual or expected quality of life, so long as they reduce any displeasure due to the undesired outcomes of uncertainty. Finally, each consumption decision incurs its own satisfactory time period, owed to not feeling hungry, being healthy, not having transportation…etc. This reveals that the level of satisfaction is indeed a behavioral phenomenon where its value would depend on the simultaneous satisfaction derived from all activities.Keywords: decision-making, idea and belief, satisficing, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 2756898 Ranking Effective Factors on Strategic Planning to Achieve Organization Objectives in Fuzzy Multivariate Decision-Making Technique
Authors: Elahe Memari, Ahmad Aslizadeh, Ahmad Memari
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Today strategic planning is counted as the most important duties of senior directors in each organization. Strategic planning allows the organizations to implement compiled strategies and reach higher competitive benefits than their competitors. The present research work tries to prepare and rank the strategies form effective factors on strategic planning in fulfillment of the State Road Management and Transportation Organization in order to indicate the role of organizational factors in efficiency of the process to organization managers. Connection between six main factors in fulfillment of State Road Management and Transportation Organization were studied here, including Improvement of Strategic Thinking in senior managers, improvement of the organization business process, rationalization of resources allocation in different parts of the organization, coordination and conformity of strategic plan with organization needs, adjustment of organization activities with environmental changes, reinforcement of organizational culture. All said factors approved by implemented tests and then ranked using fuzzy multivariate decision-making technique.Keywords: Fuzzy TOPSIS, improvement of organization business process, multivariate decision-making, strategic planning
Procedia PDF Downloads 4116897 Complex Decision Rules in the Form of Decision Trees
Authors: Avinash S. Jagtap, Sharad D. Gore, Rajendra G. Gurao
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Decision rules become more and more complex as the number of conditions increase. As a consequence, the complexity of the decision rule also influences the time complexity of computer implementation of such a rule. Consider, for example, a decision that depends on four conditions A, B, C and D. For simplicity, suppose each of these four conditions is binary. Even then the decision rule will consist of 16 lines, where each line will be of the form: If A and B and C and D, then action 1. If A and B and C but not D, then action 2 and so on. While executing this decision rule, each of the four conditions will be checked every time until all the four conditions in a line are satisfied. The minimum number of logical comparisons is 4 whereas the maximum number is 64. This paper proposes to present a complex decision rule in the form of a decision tree. A decision tree divides the cases into branches every time a condition is checked. In the form of a decision tree, every branching eliminates half of the cases that do not satisfy the related conditions. As a result, every branch of the decision tree involves only four logical comparisons and hence is significantly simpler than the corresponding complex decision rule. The conclusion of this paper is that every complex decision rule can be represented as a decision tree and the decision tree is mathematically equivalent but computationally much simpler than the original complex decision ruleKeywords: strategic, tactical, operational, adaptive, innovative
Procedia PDF Downloads 2706896 The Choosing the Right Projects With Multi-Criteria Decision Making to Ensure the Sustainability of the Projects
Authors: Saniye Çeşmecioğlu
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The importance of project sustainability and success has become increasingly significant due to the proliferation of external environmental factors that have decreased project resistance in contemporary times. The primary approach to forestall the failure of projects is to ensure their long-term viability through the strategic selection of projects as creating judicious project selection framework within the organization. Decision-makers require precise decision contexts (models) that conform to the company's business objectives and sustainability expectations during the project selection process. The establishment of a rational model for project selection enables organizations to create a distinctive and objective framework for the selection process. Additionally, for the optimal implementation of this decision-making model, it is crucial to establish a Project Management Office (PMO) team and Project Steering Committee within the organizational structure to oversee the framework. These teams enable updating project selection criteria and weights in response to changing conditions, ensuring alignment with the company's business goals, and facilitating the selection of potentially viable projects. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision model for selecting project sustainability and project success criteria that ensures timely project completion and retention. The model was developed using MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) and was based on broadcaster companies’ expectations. The ultimate results of this study provide a model that endorses the process of selecting the appropriate project objectively by utilizing project selection and sustainability criteria along with their respective weights for organizations. Additionally, the study offers suggestions that may ascertain helpful in future endeavors.Keywords: project portfolio management, project selection, multi-criteria decision making, project sustainability and success criteria, MACBETH
Procedia PDF Downloads 506895 Tolerating Input Faults in Asynchronous Sequential Machines
Authors: Jung-Min Yang
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A method of tolerating input faults for input/state asynchronous sequential machines is proposed. A corrective controller is placed in front of the considered asynchronous machine to realize model matching with a reference model. The value of the external input transmitted to the closed-loop system may change by fault. We address the existence condition for the controller that can counteract adverse effects of any input fault while maintaining the objective of model matching. A design procedure for constructing the controller is outlined. The proposed reachability condition for the controller design is validated in an illustrative example.Keywords: asynchronous sequential machines, corrective control, fault tolerance, input faults, model matching
Procedia PDF Downloads 4156894 Evaluation of Clinical Decision Support System in Electronic Medical Record System: A Case of Malawi National Art Electronic Medical Record System
Authors: Pachawo Bisani, Goodall Nyirenda
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The Malawi National Antiretroviral Therapy (NART) Electronic Medical Record (EMR) system was designed and developed with guidance from the Ministry of Health through the Department of HIV and AIDS (DHA) with the aim of supporting the management of HIV patient data and reporting in high prevalence ART clinics. As of 2021, the system has been scaled up to over 206 facilities across the country. The system is integrated with the clinical decision support system (CDSS) to assist healthcare providers in making a decision about an individual patient at a particular point in time. Despite NART EMR undergoing several evaluations and assessments, little has been done to evaluate the clinical decision support system in the NART EMR system. Hence, the study aimed to evaluate the use of CDSS in the NART EMR system in Malawi. The study adopted a mixed-method approach, and data was collected through interviews, observations, and questionnaires. The study has revealed that the CDSS tools were integrated into the ART clinic workflow, making it easy for the user to use it. The study has also revealed challenges in system reliability and information accuracy. Despite the challenges, the study further revealed that the system is effective and efficient, and overall, users are satisfied with the system. The study recommends that the implementers focus more on the logic behind the clinical decision-support intervention in order to address some of the concerns and enhance the accuracy of the information supplied. The study further suggests consulting the system's actual users throughout implementation.Keywords: clinical decision support system, electronic medical record system, usability, antiretroviral therapy
Procedia PDF Downloads 806893 Decision-Making Process Based on Game Theory in the Process of Urban Transformation
Authors: Cemil Akcay, Goksun Yerlikaya
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Buildings are the living spaces of people with an active role in every aspect of life in today's world. While some structures have survived from the early ages, most of the buildings that completed their lifetime have not transported to the present day. Nowadays, buildings that do not meet the social, economic, and safety requirements of the age return to life with a transformation process. This transformation is called urban transformation. Urban transformation is the renewal of the areas with a risk of disaster and the technological infrastructure required by the structure. The transformation aims to prevent damage to earthquakes and other disasters by rebuilding buildings that have completed their non-earthquake-resistant economic life. It is essential to decide on other issues related to conversion and transformation in places where most of the building stock should transform into the first-degree earthquake belt, such as Istanbul. In urban transformation, property owners, local authority, and contractor must deal at a common point. Considering that hundreds of thousands of property owners are sometimes in the areas of transformation, it is evident how difficult it is to make the deal and decide. For the optimization of these decisions, the use of game theory is foreseeing. The main problem in this study is that the urban transformation is carried out in place, or the building or buildings are transport to a different location. There are many stakeholders in the Istanbul University Cerrahpaşa Medical Faculty Campus, which is planned to be carried out in the process of urban transformation, was tried to solve the game theory applications. An analysis of the decisions given on a real urban transformation project and the logical suitability of decisions taken without the use of game theory were also supervised using game theory. In each step of this study, many decision-makers are classifying according to a specific logical sequence, and in the game trees that emerged as a result of this classification, Nash balances were tried to observe, and optimum decisions were determined. All decisions taken for this project have been subjected to two significant differentiated comparisons using game theory, and as decisions are taken without the use of game theory, and according to the results, solutions for the decision phase of the urban transformation process introduced. The game theory model developed from beginning to the end of the urban transformation process, particularly as a solution to the difficulty of making rational decisions in large-scale projects with many participants in the decision-making process. The use of a decision-making mechanism can provide an optimum answer to the demands of the stakeholders. In today's world for the construction sector, it is also seeing that the game theory is a non-surprising consequence of the fact that it is the most critical issues of planning and making the right decision in future years.Keywords: urban transformation, the game theory, decision making, multi-actor project
Procedia PDF Downloads 1286892 Sustainable Approach for Strategic Planning of Construction of Buildings using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Tools
Authors: Kishor Bhagwat, Gayatri Vyas
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Construction industry is earmarked with complex processes depending on the nature and scope of the project. In recent years, developments in this sector are remarkable and have resulted in both positive and negative impacts on the environment and human being. Sustainable construction can be looked upon as one of the solution to overcome the negative impacts since sustainable construction is a vast concept, which includes many parameters, and sometimes the use of multi-criteria decision making [MCDM] tools becomes necessary. The main objective of this study is to determine the weightage of sustainable building parameters with the help of MCDM tools. Questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the perspective of respondents on the importance of weights of the criterion, and the respondents were architects, green building consultants, and civil engineers. This paper presents an overview of research related to Indian and international green building rating systems and MCDM. The results depict that economy, environmental health, and safety, site selection, climatic condition, etc., are important parameters in sustainable construction.Keywords: green building, sustainability, multi-criteria decision making method [MCDM], analytical hierarchy process [AHP], technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution [TOPSIS], entropy
Procedia PDF Downloads 866891 Robot Navigation and Localization Based on the Rat’s Brain Signals
Authors: Endri Rama, Genci Capi, Shigenori Kawahara
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The mobile robot ability to navigate autonomously in its environment is very important. Even though the advances in technology, robot self-localization and goal directed navigation in complex environments are still challenging tasks. In this article, we propose a novel method for robot navigation based on rat’s brain signals (Local Field Potentials). It has been well known that rats accurately and rapidly navigate in a complex space by localizing themselves in reference to the surrounding environmental cues. As the first step to incorporate the rat’s navigation strategy into the robot control, we analyzed the rats’ strategies while it navigates in a multiple Y-maze, and recorded Local Field Potentials (LFPs) simultaneously from three brain regions. Next, we processed the LFPs, and the extracted features were used as an input in the artificial neural network to predict the rat’s next location, especially in the decision-making moment, in Y-junctions. We developed an algorithm by which the robot learned to imitate the rat’s decision-making by mapping the rat’s brain signals into its own actions. Finally, the robot learned to integrate the internal states as well as external sensors in order to localize and navigate in the complex environment.Keywords: brain-machine interface, decision-making, mobile robot, neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 2876890 Exploring Framing Effect and Repetition Effect of the Persuasive Message on Moral Decision Making in Conflict of Interests
Authors: Sae-Yeon Seong, EunSun Chung, Dongjoo Chin
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Conflict of interest (COI) is one of the dominant circumstantial factors of moral corruption across various fields. Several management strategies have been proposed to prevent self-interested decision making in COIs. Among these strategies, message persuasion has been considered as a practical and effective approach. Framing and repetition are two of the major factors in the persuasion effect of message. Therefore, their effect on moral decision making in COI should be explored systematically. The purpose of this study was to compare the differential effects of positively framed message and negatively framed message, and secondly, to investigate how the effectiveness of persuasive message changes through repetitive exposures. A total of 63 participants were randomly assigned to one of 3 framing conditions: positive framing, negative framing, and no-message condition. Prior to the online experiment involving a consultation task, the differently framed persuasive message was presented to the participants. This process was repeated four times in a row. The results showed that participants with positive-framing message were less likely to provide self-interested consultation than participants in the no-message condition. Also, a U-shaped quadric relation between repetition and self-interest consultation was found. Implications and limitations are further discussed.Keywords: conflicts of interest, persuasive message, framing effect, repetition effect, self-interested behavior
Procedia PDF Downloads 1616889 Component-Based Approach in Assessing Sewer Manholes
Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Tarek Zayed
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Sewer networks are constructed to protect the communities and the environment from any contact with the sewer mediums. Pipelines, being laterals or sewer mains, and manholes form the huge underground infrastructure in every urban city. Due to the sewer networks importance, the infrastructure asset management field has extensive advancement in condition assessment and rehabilitation decision models. However, most of the focus was devoted to pipelines giving little attention toward manholes condition assessment. In fact, recent studies started to emerge in this area to preserve manholes from any malfunction. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to propose a condition assessment model for sewer manholes. The model divides the manhole into several components and determines the relative importance weight of each component using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) decision-making method. Later, the condition of the manhole is computed by aggregating the condition of each component with its corresponding weight. Accordingly, the proposed assessment model will enable decision-makers to have a final index suggesting the overall condition of the manhole and a backward analysis to check the condition of each component. Consequently, better decisions are made pertinent to maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement actions.Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), condition assessment, decision-making, manholes
Procedia PDF Downloads 3416888 Persuasive Communication on Social Egg Freezing in California from a Framing Theory Perspective
Authors: Leila Mohammadi
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This paper presents the impact of persuasive communication implemented by fertility clinics websites, and how this information influences women at their decision-making for undertaking this procedure. The influential factors for women decisions to do social egg freezing (SEF) are analyzed from a framing theory perspective, with a specific focus on the impact of persuasive information on women’s decision making. This study follows a quantitative approach. A two-phase survey has been conducted to examine the interest rate to undertake SEF. In the first phase, a questionnaire was available during a month (May 2015) to women to answer whether or not they knew enough information of this process, with a total of 230 answers. The second phase took place in the two last weeks of July 2015. All the respondents were invited to a seminars called ‘All about egg freezing’ and afretwards they were requested to answer the second questionnaire. After the seminar, in which they were given an extensive amount of information about egg freezing, a total of 115 women replied the questionnaire. The collected data during this process were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Most of the respondents changed their opinion in the second questionaire which was after receiving information. Although in the first questionnaire their self-evaluation of having knowledge about this process and the implemented technologies was very high, they realized that they still need to access more information from different sources in order to be able to make a decision. The study reached the conclusion that persuasive and framed information by clinics would affect the decisions of these women. Despite the reasons women have to do egg freezing and their motivations behind it, providing people necessary information and unprejudiced data about this process (such as its positive and negative aspects, requirements, suppositions, possibilities and consequences) would help them to make a more precise and reasonable decision about what they are buying.Keywords: decision making, fertility clinics, framing theory, persuasive information, social egg freezing
Procedia PDF Downloads 2396887 Vulnerability Analysis for Risk Zones Boundary Definition to Support a Decision Making Process at CBRNE Operations
Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch
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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.Keywords: boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones
Procedia PDF Downloads 1996886 A Multigranular Linguistic ARAS Model in Group Decision Making
Authors: Wiem Daoud Ben Amor, Luis Martínez López, Hela Moalla Frikha
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Most of the multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems dealing with qualitative criteria require consideration of the large background of expert information. It is common that experts have different degrees of knowledge for giving their alternative assessments according to criteria. So, it seems logical that they use different evaluation scales to express their judgment, i.e., multi granular linguistic scales. In this context, we propose the extension of the classical additive ratio assessment (ARAS) method to the case of a hierarchical linguistics term for managing multi granular linguistic scales in uncertain contexts where uncertainty is modeled by means in linguistic information. The proposed approach is called the extended hierarchical linguistics-ARAS method (ARAS-ELH). Within the ARAS-ELH approach, the DM can diagnose the results (the ranking of the alternatives) in a decomposed style, i.e., not only at one level of the hierarchy but also at the intermediate ones. Also, the developed approach allows a feedback transformation i.e the collective final results of all experts able to be transformed at any level of the extended linguistic hierarchy that each expert has previously used. Therefore, the ARAS-ELH technique makes it easier for decision-makers to understand the results. Finally, An MCGDM case study is given to illustrate the proposed approach.Keywords: additive ratio assessment, extended hierarchical linguistic, multi-criteria group decision making problems, multi granular linguistic contexts
Procedia PDF Downloads 1996885 GIS Pavement Maintenance Selection Strategy
Authors: Mekdelawit Teferi Alamirew
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As a practical tool, the Geographical information system (GIS) was used for data integration, collection, management, analysis, and output presentation in pavement mangement systems . There are many GIS techniques to improve the maintenance activities like Dynamic segmentation and weighted overlay analysis which considers Multi Criteria Decision Making process. The results indicated that the developed MPI model works sufficiently and yields adequate output for providing accurate decisions. Hence considering multi criteria to prioritize the pavement sections for maintenance, as a result of the fact that GIS maps can express position, extent, and severity of pavement distress features more effectively than manual approaches, lastly the paper also offers digitized distress maps that can help agencies in their decision-making processes.Keywords: pavement, flexible, maintenance, index
Procedia PDF Downloads 526884 Stress Perception, Ethics and Leadership Styles of Pilots: Implications for Airline Global Talent Acquisition and Talent Management Strategy
Authors: Arif Sikander, Imran Saeed
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The behavioral pattern and performance of airline pilots are influenced by the level of stress, their ethical decision-making ability and above all their leadership style as part of the Crew Management process. Cultural differences of pilots, especially while working in ex-country airlines, could influence the stress perception. Culture also influences ethical decision making. Leadership style is also a variable dimension, and pilots need to adapt to the cultural settings while flying with the local pilots as part of their team. Studies have found that age, education, gender, and management experience are statistically significant factors in ethical maturity. However, in the decades to come, more studies are required to validate the results over and over again; thereby, providing support for the validity of the Moral Development Theory. Leadership style plays a vital role in ethical decision making. This study is grounded in the Moral Development theory and seeks to analyze the styles of leadership of airline pilots related to ethical decision making and also the influence of the culture on their stress perception. The sample for the study included commercial pilots from a National Airline. It is expected that these results should provide useful input to the literature in the context of developing appropriate Talent Management strategies. The authors intend to extend this study (carried out in one country) to major national carriers (many countries) to be able to develop a ultimate framework on Talent Management which should serve as a benchmark for any international airline as most of them (e.g., Emirates, Etihad, Cathay Pacific, China Southern, etc.) are dependent on the supply of this scarce resource from outside countries.Keywords: ethics, leadership, pilot, stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 1316883 A Combined AHP-GP Model for Selecting Knowledge Management Tool
Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies
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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making
Procedia PDF Downloads 3776882 Predicting the Success of Bank Telemarketing Using Artificial Neural Network
Authors: Mokrane Selma
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The shift towards decision making (DM) based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques will change the way in which consumer markets and our societies function. Through AI, predictive analytics is being used by businesses to identify these patterns and major trends with the objective to improve the DM and influence future business outcomes. This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict the success of telemarketing calls for selling bank long-term deposits. To validate the proposed model, we uses the bank marketing data of 41188 phone calls. The ANN attains 98.93% of accuracy which outperforms other conventional classifiers and confirms that it is credible and valuable approach for telemarketing campaign managers.Keywords: bank telemarketing, prediction, decision making, artificial intelligence, artificial neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 1436881 The Impacts of Local Decision Making on Customisation Process Speed across Distributed Boundaries
Authors: Abdulrahman M. Qahtani, Gary. B. Wills, Andy. M. Gravell
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Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.Keywords: customisation software products, global software engineering, local decision making, requirement engineering, simulation model
Procedia PDF Downloads 4196880 The Use of Boosted Multivariate Trees in Medical Decision-Making for Repeated Measurements
Authors: Ebru Turgal, Beyza Doganay Erdogan
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Machine learning aims to model the relationship between the response and features. Medical decision-making researchers would like to make decisions about patients’ course and treatment, by examining the repeated measurements over time. Boosting approach is now being used in machine learning area for these aims as an influential tool. The aim of this study is to show the usage of multivariate tree boosting in this field. The main reason for utilizing this approach in the field of decision-making is the ease solutions of complex relationships. To show how multivariate tree boosting method can be used to identify important features and feature-time interaction, we used the data, which was collected retrospectively from Ankara University Chest Diseases Department records. Dataset includes repeated PF ratio measurements. The follow-up time is planned for 120 hours. A set of different models is tested. In conclusion, main idea of classification with weighed combination of classifiers is a reliable method which was shown with simulations several times. Furthermore, time varying variables will be taken into consideration within this concept and it could be possible to make accurate decisions about regression and survival problems.Keywords: boosted multivariate trees, longitudinal data, multivariate regression tree, panel data
Procedia PDF Downloads 1956879 Discrete State Prediction Algorithm Design with Self Performance Enhancement Capacity
Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif
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This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4896878 Retrospective Interview with Amateur Soccer Officials Using Eye Tracker Footage
Authors: Lee Waters, Itay Basevitch, Matthew Timmis
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Objectives: Eye tracking technology is a valuable method of assessing individuals gaze behaviour, but it does not unveil why they are engaging in certain practices. To address limitations in sport eye tracking research the present paper aims to investigate the gaze behaviours soccer officials engage in during successful and unsuccessful offside decisions, but also why. Methods: 20 male active amateur qualified (Level 4-7) soccer officials (Mage 22.5 SD 4.61 yrs) with an average experience of 41-50 games wore eye tracking technology during an applied attack versus defence drill. While reviewing the eye tracking footage, retrospective semi-structured interviews were conducted (M=20.4 min; SD=6.2; Range 11.7 – 26.8 min) and once transcribed inductive thematic analysis was performed. Findings and Discussion: To improve the understanding of gaze behaviours and how officials make sense of the environment, during the interview’s key constructs of offside, decision making, obstacles and emotions were summarised as the higher order themes while making offside decisions. Gaze anchoring was highlighted to be a successful technique to allow officials to see all relevant information, whereas the type of offside was emphasised to be a key factor in correct interpretation. Furthermore, specific decision-making training was outlined to be inconsistent and not always applicable. Conclusions: Key constructs have been identified and explained, which can be shared with soccer officials through training regimes. Eye tracking technology has also been shown to be a useful and innovative reflective tool to assist in the understanding of individuals gaze behaviours.Keywords: eye tracking, gaze behvaiour, decision making, reflection
Procedia PDF Downloads 1206877 Enhancing Construction Project Management through Cognitive Science and Neuroimaging: A Comprehensive Literature Review
Authors: Krishna Kisi, Tulio Sulbaran
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This literature review offers valuable insights into integrating cognitive science and neuroimaging with project management practices, presenting a crucial resource for leadership within the construction industry. This paper highlights the significant benefits of applying interdisciplinary approaches to enhance project management effectiveness and project outcomes by exploring the intricate connections between cognitive processes, decision-making, and project management. Key findings emphasize the critical role of cognitive status in determining the performance and project outcomes of construction workers, underlining the necessity for leadership to prioritize cognitive well-being and mental health as central components of project management strategies. The review identifies a gap in current practices, particularly the need for more objective tools for assessing cognitive status within the construction sector, and proposes the adoption of neuroimaging technologies to bridge this gap. The study highlights how integrating cognitive psychology and neuroscience clarifies decision-making processes, aiding leaders in comprehending the mental constraints and biases that influence project decisions. By integrating neuroscientific insights with traditional management practices, leaders can enhance their strategies for training, team dynamics, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to more informed, efficient, and productive construction project management. This comprehensive literature review underscores the importance of adopting an interdisciplinary approach to leadership and management within high-risk industries. It provides a foundation for construction project managers to leverage cognitive science and neuroimaging advancements to improve efficiency, productivity, and decision-making in construction projects' complex and dynamic environments.Keywords: decision making, literature review, neuroimaging, project management
Procedia PDF Downloads 346876 A Social Decision Support Mechanism for Group Purchasing
Authors: Lien-Fa Lin, Yung-Ming Li, Fu-Shun Hsieh
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With the advancement of information technology and development of group commerce, people have obviously changed in their lifestyle. However, group commerce faces some challenging problems. The products or services provided by vendors do not satisfactorily reflect customers’ opinions, so that the sale and revenue of group commerce gradually become lower. On the other hand, the process for a formed customer group to reach group-purchasing consensus is time-consuming and the final decision is not the best choice for each group members. In this paper, we design a social decision support mechanism, by using group discussion message to recommend suitable options for group members and we consider social influence and personal preference to generate option ranking list. The proposed mechanism can enhance the group purchasing decision making efficiently and effectively and venders can provide group products or services according to the group option ranking list.Keywords: social network, group decision, text mining, group commerce
Procedia PDF Downloads 4816875 A Multi-Criteria Decision Method for the Recruitment of Academic Personnel Based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Delphi Method in a Neutrosophic Environment
Authors: Antonios Paraskevas, Michael Madas
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For a university to maintain its international competitiveness in education, it is essential to recruit qualitative academic staff as it constitutes its most valuable asset. This selection demonstrates a significant role in achieving strategic objectives, particularly by emphasizing a firm commitment to the exceptional student experience and innovative teaching and learning practices of high quality. In this vein, the appropriate selection of academic staff establishes a very important factor of competitiveness, efficiency and reputation of an academic institute. Within this framework, our work demonstrates a comprehensive methodological concept that emphasizes the multi-criteria nature of the problem and how decision-makers could utilize our approach in order to proceed to the appropriate judgment. The conceptual framework introduced in this paper is built upon a hybrid neutrosophic method based on the Neutrosophic Analytical Hierarchy Process (N-AHP), which uses the theory of neutrosophy sets and is considered suitable in terms of a significant degree of ambiguity and indeterminacy observed in the decision-making process. To this end, our framework extends the N-AHP by incorporating the Neutrosophic Delphi Method (N-DM). By applying the N-DM, we can take into consideration the importance of each decision-maker and their preferences per evaluation criterion. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed model is the first which applies the Neutrosophic Delphi Method in the selection of academic staff. As a case study, it was decided to use our method for a real problem of academic personnel selection, having as the main goal to enhance the algorithm proposed in previous scholars’ work, and thus taking care of the inherent ineffectiveness which becomes apparent in traditional multi-criteria decision-making methods when dealing with situations alike. As a further result, we prove that our method demonstrates greater applicability and reliability when compared to other decision models.Keywords: multi-criteria decision making methods, analytical hierarchy process, delphi method, personnel recruitment, neutrosophic set theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 1056874 Decision-Making in the Internationalization Process of Small and Medium Sized Companies: Experience from Managers in a Small Economy
Authors: Gunnar Oskarsson, Gudjon Helgi Egilsson
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Due to globalization, small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) increasingly offer their products and services in foreign markets. The main reasons are either to compensate for a decreased market share in their home market or to exploit opportunities in foreign markets, which are becoming less distant and better accessible than before. International markets are particularly important for companies located in a small economy and offering specialized products. Although more accessible, entering international markets is both expensive and difficult. In order to select the most appropriate markets, it is, therefore, important to gain an insight into the factors that have an impact on success, or potential failure. Although there has been a reasonable volume of research into the theory of internationalization, there is still a need to gain further understanding of the decision-making process of SMEs in small economies and the most important characteristics that distinguish between success and failure. The main objective of this research is to enhance knowledge on the internationalization of SMEs, including the drivers for the decision to internationalize, and the most important factors contributing to success in their internationalization activities. A qualitative approach was found to be most appropriate for this kind of research, with the objective of gaining a deeper understanding and discovering factors which impact a company’s decision-making and potential success. In-depth interviews were conducted with 14 companies in different industries located in Iceland, a country extensively dependent on export revenues. The interviews revealed several factors as drivers of internationalization and, not surprisingly, the most frequently mentioned source of motivation was that the local market is inadequate to maintain a sustainable operation. Good networking relationships were seen as a particular priority for potential success, searching for new markets was mainly carried out through the internet, although sales exhibitions and sales trips were also considered important. When it comes to the final decision as to whether a market should be considered for further analysis, economy, labor cost, legal environment, and cultural barriers were the most common factors to be weighted. The ultimate answer to successful internationalization, however, is largely dependent on a coordinated and experienced management team. The main contribution of this research is offering an insight into factors affecting decision-making in the internationalization process of SMEs, based on the opinion and experience of managers of SMEs in a small economy.Keywords: internationalization, success factors, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), drivers, decision making
Procedia PDF Downloads 2336873 An Integrated Framework for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decision Making
Authors: Mojtaba Sadeghi, Farshid Baniassadi, Hamed Kashani
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One of the challenging issues faced by seismic retrofitting consultants and employers is quick decision-making on the demolition or retrofitting of a structure at the current time or in the future. For this reason, the existing models proposed by researchers have only covered one of the aspects of cost, execution method, and structural vulnerability. Given the effect of each factor on the final decision, it is crucial to devise a new comprehensive model capable of simultaneously covering all the factors. This study attempted to provide an integrated framework that can be utilized to select the most appropriate earthquake risk mitigation solution for buildings. This framework can overcome the limitations of current models by taking into account several factors such as cost, execution method, risk-taking and structural failure. In the newly proposed model, the database and essential information about retrofitting projects are developed based on the historical data on a retrofit project. In the next phase, an analysis is conducted in order to assess the vulnerability of the building under study. Then, artificial neural networks technique is employed to calculate the cost of retrofitting. While calculating the current price of the structure, an economic analysis is conducted to compare demolition versus retrofitting costs. At the next stage, the optimal method is identified. Finally, the implementation of the framework was demonstrated by collecting data concerning 155 previous projects.Keywords: decision making, demolition, construction management, seismic retrofit
Procedia PDF Downloads 2296872 Epistemic Emotions during Cognitive Conflict: Associations with Metacognitive Feelings in High Conflict Scenarios
Authors: Katerina Nerantzaki, Panayiota Metallidou, Anastasia Efklides
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The aim of the study was to investigate: (a) changes in the intensity of various epistemic emotions during cognitive processing in a decision-making task and (b) their associations with metacognitive feelings of difficulty and confidence. One hundred and fifty-two undergraduate university students were asked individually to read in the e-prime environment decision-making scenarios about moral dilemmas concerning self-driving cars, which differed in the level of conflict they produced, and then to make a choice between two options. Further, the participants were asked to rate on a four-point scale four epistemic emotions (surprise, curiosity, confusion, and wonder) and two metacognitive feelings (feeling of difficulty and feeling of confidence) after making their choice in each scenario. Changes in cognitive processing due to the level of conflict affected differently the intensity of the specific epistemic emotions. Further, there were interrelations of epistemic emotions with metacognitive feelings.Keywords: confusion, curiosity, epistemic emotions, metacognitive experiences, surprise
Procedia PDF Downloads 696871 Applying Sequential Pattern Mining to Generate Block for Scheduling Problems
Authors: Meng-Hui Chen, Chen-Yu Kao, Chia-Yu Hsu, Pei-Chann Chang
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The main idea in this paper is using sequential pattern mining to find the information which is helpful for finding high performance solutions. By combining this information, it is defined as blocks. Using the blocks to generate artificial chromosomes (ACs) could improve the structure of solutions. Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs) is adapted to solve the combinatorial problems. Nevertheless many of these approaches are advantageous for this application, but only some of them are used to enhance the efficiency of application. Generating ACs uses patterns and EDAs could increase the diversity. According to the experimental result, the algorithm which we proposed has a better performance to solve the permutation flow-shop problems.Keywords: combinatorial problems, sequential pattern mining, estimationof distribution algorithms, artificial chromosomes
Procedia PDF Downloads 5896870 Unintended Health Inequity: Using the Relationship Between the Social Determinants of Health and Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance as a Catalyst for Organizational Development and Change
Authors: Dinamarie Fonzone
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Employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) strategic decision-making processes rely on financial analysis to guide leadership in choosing plans that will produce optimal organizational spending outcomes. These financial decision-making methods have not abated ESI costs. Previously unrecognized external social determinants, the impact on ESI plan spending, and other organizational strategies are emerging and are important considerations for organizational decision-makers and change management practitioners. The purpose of thisstudy is to examine the relationship between the social determinants of health (SDoH), employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) plans, andthe unintended consequence of health inequity. A quantitative research design using selectemployee records from an existing employer human capital management database will be analyzed. Statistical regressionmethods will be used to study the relationships between certainSDoH (employee income, neighborhood geographic living area, and health care access) and health plan utilization, cost, and chronic disease prevalence. The discussion will include an application of the social gradient of health theory to the study findings, organizational transformation through changes in ESI decision-making mental models, and the connection of ESI health inequity to organizational development and changediversity, equity, and inclusion strategies.Keywords: employer-sponsored health insurance, social determinants of health, health inequity, mental models, organizational development, organizational change, social gradient of health theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 99