Search results for: extreme conditions

Authors: Da LI, Peng Xu

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Recent extreme weather events, such as the 2021 European floods and North American heatwaves, have exposed the vulnerability of energy systems to both extreme demand scenarios and potential physical damage. Current integrated energy system designs often overlook performance under these challenging conditions. This research, focusing on a regional integrated energy system in Ningbo, China, proposes a distinct design method to optimize system reliability during extreme events. A multi-scenario model was developed, encompassing various extreme load conditions and potential system damages caused by severe weather. Based on this model, a comprehensive reliability improvement scheme was designed, incorporating a gradient approach to address different levels of disaster severity through the integration of advanced technologies like distributed energy storage. The scheme's effectiveness was validated through Monte Carlo simulations. Results demonstrate significant enhancements in energy supply reliability and peak load reduction capability under extreme scenarios. The findings provide several insights for improving energy system adaptability in the face of climate-induced challenges, offering valuable references for building reliable energy infrastructure capable of withstanding both extreme demands and physical threats across a spectrum of disaster intensities.

Keywords: extreme weather events, integrated energy systems, reliability improvement, climate change adaptation

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Authors: Oyenike Eludoyin

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Extreme climate conditions are deviation from the norms and are capable of causing upsets in many important environmental parameter including disruption of water balance and air temperature balance. Studies have shown that extreme climate conditions can foretell disaster in regions with inadequate early warning systems. In this paper, we combined geographical information systems, statistics and social surveys to evaluate the physiologic indices [(Dewpoint Temperature (Td), Effective Temperature Index (ETI) and Relative Strain Index (RSI)] and extreme climate conditions in different parts of southwest Nigeria. This was with the view to assessing the nature and the impact of the conditions on the people and their coping strategies. The results indicate that minimum, mean and maximum temperatures were higher in 1960-1990 than 1991-2013 periods at most areas, and more than 80% of the people adapt to thermal stress by changing wear type or cloth, installing air conditioner and fan at home and/or work place and sleeping outside at certain period of the night and day. With respect to livelihoods, about 52% of the interviewed farmers indicated that too early rainfall, late rainfall, prolonged dryness after an initial rainfall, excessive rainfall and windstorms caused low crop yields. Main (76%) coping strategies were changing of planting dates, diversification of crops, and practices of mulching and intercropping. Government or institutional support was less than 20%.

Keywords: coping strategies, extreme climate, livelihoods, physiologic comfort

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Authors: Ka-lok Kan, Oluwatoyin Ajibade, Issa Chaer

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Climate change’s extreme weather patterns significantly affect the durability and maintenance costs of existing asphalt Road Pavement Systems (RPS). Moreover, the current RPS imposes a considerable environmental burden, as its production involves the large-scale extraction of bitumen and the dredging of Virgin Sand and Gravel (VSG). Recent studies suggest that more sustainable alternatives, such as incorporating carbonated aggregates to reduce the use of virgin materials content in asphalt, can enhance asphalt performance while offering an effective cost management strategy. However, the impact of extreme weather conditions on the durability and maintenance requirements of these green solutions remains unexplored. This paper reports on the results of comprehensive durability tests conducted on a novel asphalt pavement to assess the effects of anticipated extreme winter and summer weather conditions. Preliminary findings indicate that the new asphalt pavement system made from carbonated aggregates demonstrates greater stability and fatigue resistance in comparison to traditional asphalt mixes.

Keywords: climate change, carbonated aggregates, green solution, asphalt

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Authors: A. Ghenaim, A. Terfous

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In this work, degradation phenomena in fluvial beds having uniform sediments are explored experimentally under extreme flow conditions. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a rectangular cross-section channel for different flow conditions, channel characteristics, and sediment properties at the National Institute of Applied Sciences (Strasbourg, France). Tests were carried out in two conditions: (1) equilibrium condition, where, once the steady and uniform flow conditions were achieved for a given slope and discharge, the channel was fed with variable sediment discharges until the bed-load sediment transport achieved an equilibrium condition; and (2) nonequilibrium condition, where the sediment feeding was instantaneously stopped, and the bed levels were measured over time. Experimental results enabled assessing the erosion rates and determining the empirical mathematical model to predict the bed level changes.

Keywords: fluvial beds, sediment, uniform flow conditions, nonequilibrium condition, sediment disposition, erosion

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

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Authors: Serge Provost, Abdous Saboor

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A q-analogue of the generalized extreme value distribution which includes the Gumbel distribution is introduced. The additional parameter q allows for increased modeling flexibility. The resulting distribution can have a finite, semi-infinite or infinite support. It can also produce several types of hazard rate functions. The model parameters are determined by making use of the method of maximum likelihood. It will be shown that it compares favourably to three related distributions in connection with the modeling of a certain hydrological data set.

Keywords: extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, goodness-of-fit statistics, Gumbel distribution

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Authors: Chhordaneath Hen, Ty Sok, Ilan Ich, Ratboren Chan, Chantha Oeurng

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The damages caused by hydrological extremes such as flooding have been severe globally, and several research studies indicated extreme precipitations play a crucial role. Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries exposed to floods and drought as consequences of climate impact. Prek Thnot River Basin in the southwest part of Cambodia, which is in the plate and plateau region and a part of the Mekong Delta, was selected to investigate the changes in extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme. Furthermore, to develop a statistical relationship between these phenomena in this basin from 1995 to 2020 using Multiple Linear Regression. The precipitation and hydrological extreme were assessed via the attributes and trends of rainfall patterns during the study periods. The extreme flow was defined as a dependent variable, while the independent variables are various extreme precipitation indices. The study showed that all extreme precipitations indices (R10, R20, R35, CWD, R95p, R99p, and PRCPTOT) had increasing decency. However, the number of rain days per year had a decreasing tendency, which can conclude that extreme rainfall was more intense in a shorter period of the year. The study showed a similar relationship between extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme and land use change association with hydrological extreme. The direct combination of land use and precipitation equals 37% of the flood causes in this river. This study provided information on these two causes of flood events and an understanding of expectations of climate change consequences for flood and water resources management.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, hydrological extreme, land use, land cover, Prek Thnot river basin

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Authors: Mahmoud I. Syam, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Amer I. Al-Omari

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Stratified double extreme ranked set sampling (SDERSS) method is introduced and considered for estimating the population mean. The SDERSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS) and stratified simple set sampling (SSRS). It is shown that the SDERSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than the estimators using SRS, SRSS and SSRS when the underlying distribution of the variable of interest is symmetric or asymmetric.

Keywords: double extreme ranked set sampling, extreme ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling, stratified double extreme ranked set sampling

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Authors: Ying Li, Yan Li

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A new algorithm for single hidden layer feedforward neural networks (SLFN), Orthogonal Basis Extreme Learning (OBEL) algorithm, is proposed and the algorithm derivation is given in the paper. The algorithm can decide both the NNs parameters and the neuron number of hidden layer(s) during training while providing extreme fast learning speed. It will provide a practical way to develop NNs. The simulation results of function approximation showed that the algorithm is effective and feasible with good accuracy and adaptability.

Keywords: neural network, orthogonal basis extreme learning, function approximation

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Authors: Johnstone Walubengo Wangusi

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Climate change is undeniably altering the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of extreme weather events worldwide. In this paper, we explore the complex interconnections between climate change and extreme weather phenomena, drawing upon research from atmospheric science, geology, and climatology. We examine the underlying mechanisms driving these changes, the impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies, and strategies for adaptation and mitigation. By synthesizing insights from interdisciplinary research, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted relationship between climate change and extreme weather, informing efforts to address the challenges posed by a changing climate.

Keywords: climate change, extreme weather, atmospheric science, geology, climatology, impacts, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Renalda El Samra, Elie Bou-Zeid, Hamza Kunhu Bangalath, Georgiy Stenchikov, Mutasem El Fadel

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The regional-scale impact of climate change over complex terrain was examined through high-resolution dynamic downscaling conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with initial and boundary conditions from a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). The analysis was conducted over the eastern Mediterranean, with a focus on the country of Lebanon, which is characterized by a challenging complex topography that magnifies the effect of orographic precipitation. Four year-long WRF simulations, selected based on HiRAM time series, were performed to generate future climate projections of extreme temperature and precipitation over the study area under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. One past WRF simulation year, 2008, was selected as a baseline to capture dry extremes of the system. The results indicate that the study area might be exposed to a temperature increase between 1.0 and 3ºC in summer mean values by 2050, in comparison to 2008. For extreme years, the decrease in average annual precipitation may exceed 50% at certain locations in comparison to 2008.

Keywords: HiRAM, regional climate modeling, WRF, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)

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Authors: Daniyar Seitenov, Nazim Mir-Nasiri

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Optimization of horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine has been performed using a shield protection that automatically protects the generator shaft at extreme wind speeds from over speeding, mechanical damage and continues generating electricity during the high wind speed conditions. A semi-exposed to wind generator has been designed and its structure has been described in this paper. The simplified point-force dynamic load model on the blades has been derived for normal and extreme wind conditions with and without shield involvement. Numerical simulation has been conducted at different values of wind speed to study the efficiency of shield application. The obtained results show that the maximum power generated by the wind turbine with shield does not exceed approximately the rated value of the generator, where shield serves as an automatic break for extreme wind speed values of 15 m/sec and above. Meantime the wind turbine without shield produced a power that is much larger than the rated value. The optimized horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine with shield protection is suitable for low and medium power generation when installed on the roofs of high rise buildings for harvesting wind energy. Wind shield works automatically with no power consumption. The structure of the generator with the protection, math simulation of kinematics and dynamics of power generation has been described in details in this paper.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, wind turbine optimization, high wind speed

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Authors: Sara Patricia Ibarra-Zavaleta, Rabindranarth Romero-Lopez, Rosario Langrave, Annie Poulin, Gerald Corzo, Mathias Glaus, Ricardo Vega-Azamar, Norma Angelica Oropeza

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The progressive change in climatic conditions worldwide has increased frequency and severity of extreme hydrometeorological events (EHE). Mexico is an example; this has been affected by the presence of EHE leaving economic, social and environmental losses. The objective of this research was to apply a Canadian distributed hydrological model (DHM) to tropical conditions and to evaluate its capacity to predict flows in a basin in the central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the DHM (once calibrated and validated) was used to calculate the theoretical hydraulic power and the performance to predict streamflow before the presence of an EHE. The results of the DHM show that the goodness of fit indicators between the observed and simulated flows in the calibration process (NSE=0.83, RSR=0.021 and BIAS=-4.3) and validation: temporal was assessed at two points: point one (NSE=0.78, RSR=0.113 and BIAS=0.054) and point two (NSE=0.825, RSR=0.103 and BIAS=0.063) are satisfactory. The DHM showed its applicability in tropical environments and its ability to characterize the rainfall-runoff relationship in the study area. This work can serve as a tool for identifying vulnerabilities before floods and for the rational and sustainable management of water resources.

Keywords: HYDROTEL, hydraulic power, extreme hydrometeorological events, streamflow

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Authors: Qinghua Xing, Xinyi Tao, Haisheng Wang, Baisuo Zhao

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The first true anaerobic, halophilic alkali thermophile, Natranaerobius thermophilus DSM 18059T, serves as a valuable model for studying cellular adaptations to saline, alkaline and thermal extremes. To uncover the adaptive strategies employed by N. thermophilus in coping with these challenges, we conducted a comprehensive iTRAQ-based quantitative proteomic analysis under different conditions of salinity (3.5 M vs. 2.5 M Na+), pH (pH 9.6 vs. pH 8.6), and temperature (52°C vs. 42°C). The increased intracellular accumulation of glycine betaine, through both synthesis and transport, plays a critical role in N. thermophilus' adaptation to these combined stresses. Under all three stress conditions, the up-regulation of Trk family proteins responsible for K+ transport is observed. Intracellular K+ concentration rises in response to salt and pH levels. Multiple types of Na+/H+ antiporter (NhaC family, Mrp family and CPA family) and a diverse range of FOF1-ATP synthase are identified as vital components for maintaining ionic balance under different stress conditions. Importantly, proteins involved in amino acid metabolism, carbohydrate metabolism, ABC transporters, signaling and chemotaxis, as well as biological macromolecule repair and protection, exhibited significant up-regulation in response to these extreme conditions. These metabolic pathways emerge as critical factors in N. thermophilus' adaptation mechanisms under extreme environmental stress. To validate the proteomic data, ddPCR analysis confirmed changes in mRNA expression, thereby corroborating the up-regulation and down-regulation patterns of 19 co-up-regulated and 36 key proteins under saline, alkaline and thermal stresses. This research enriches our understanding of the complex regulatory systems that enable polyextremophiles to survive in combined extreme conditions.

Keywords: polyextremophiles, natranaerobius thermophilus, saline- alkaline- thermal stresses, combined extremes

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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Authors: Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang

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In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and another one with low area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreat phase of the EASM. Besides，a way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day (2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compare to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is lower in a weak year and higher in a strong year, which is relevant to the differences in correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and identifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Keywords: synchronization, climate network, prediction, rainfall

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Authors: Djamila Nebbali, Rezki Nebbali, Ahmed Ouibrahim

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This study focuses on the cooling of a photovoltaic panel (PV). Indeed, the cooling improves the conversion capacity of this one and maintains, under extreme conditions of air temperature, the panel temperature at an appreciable level which avoids the altering. To do this, a fan provides forced circulation of air. Because the fan is supplied by the panel, it is necessary to determine the optimum operating point that unites efficiency of the PV with the consumption of the fan. For this matter, numerical simulations are performed at varying mass flow rates of air, under two extreme air temperatures (50°C, 25°C) and a fixed solar radiation (1000 W.m2) in a case of no wind.

Keywords: energy conversion, efficiency, balance energy, solar cell

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Authors: Stamatis Zoras, Vasilis Evagelopoulos, Theodoros Staurakas

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The association between elevated air pollution levels and extreme climate conditions (temperature, particulate matter, ozone levels, etc.) and mental consequences has been, recently, the focus of significant number of studies. It varies depending on the time of the year it occurs either during the hot period or cold periods but, specifically, when extreme air pollution and weather events are observed, e.g. air pollution episodes and persistent heatwaves. It also varies spatially due to different effects of air quality and climate extremes to human health when considering metropolitan or rural areas. An air pollutant concentration and a climate extreme are taking a different form of impact if the focus area is countryside or in the urban environment. In the built environment the climate extreme effects are driven through the formed microclimate which must be studied more efficiently. Variables such as biological, age groups etc may be implicated by different environmental factors such as increased air pollution/noise levels and overheating of buildings in comparison to rural areas. Gridded air quality and climate variables derived from the land surface observations network of West Macedonia in Greece will be analysed against mortality data in a spatial format in the region of West Macedonia. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools will be used for data correction and prediction of health deterioration with climatic conditions and air pollution at local scale. This would reveal the built environment implications against the countryside. The air pollution and climatic data have been collected from meteorological stations and span the period from 2000 to 2009. These will be projected against the mortality rates data in daily, monthly, seasonal and annual grids. The grids will be operated as AI-based warning models for decision makers in order to map the health conditions in rural and urban areas to ensure improved awareness of the healthcare system by taken into account the predicted changing climate conditions. Gridded data of climate conditions, air quality levels against mortality rates will be presented by AI-analysed gridded indicators of the implicated variables. An Al-based gridded warning platform at local scales is then developed for future system awareness platform for regional level.

Keywords: air quality, artificial inteligence, climatic conditions, mortality

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Authors: Leon Pan

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The first programming course within post-secondary education has long been recognized as a challenging endeavor for both educators and students alike. Historically, these courses have exhibited high failure rates and a notable number of dropouts. Instructors often lament students' lack of effort in their coursework, and students often express frustration that the teaching methods employed are not effective. Drawing inspiration from the successful principles of Extreme Programming, this study introduces an approach—the Extremes-based teaching model — aimed at enhancing the teaching of introductory programming courses. To empirically determine the effectiveness of the model, a comparison was made between a section taught using the extreme-based model and another utilizing traditional teaching methods. Notably, the extreme-based teaching class required students to work collaboratively on projects while also demanding continuous assessment and performance enhancement within groups. This paper details the application of the extreme-based model within the post-secondary online classroom context and presents the compelling results that emphasize its effectiveness in advancing the teaching and learning experiences. The extreme-based model led to a significant increase of 13.46 points in the weighted total average and a commendable 10% reduction in the failure rate.

Keywords: extreme-based teaching model, innovative pedagogical methods, project-based learning, team-based learning

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

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In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

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Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

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Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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Authors: Shenghong Huang, Weirong Wang, Xisheng Luo, Xinzhu Li, Xinwen Zhao

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Understanding of material mixing induced by Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) at extreme shock compressing conditions (high energy density environment: P >> 100GPa, T >> 10000k) is of great significance in engineering and science, such as inertial confinement fusion(ICF), supersonic combustion, etc. Turbulent mixing induced by RMI is a kind of complex fluid dynamics, which is closely related with hydrodynamic conditions, thermodynamic states, material physical properties such as compressibility, strength, surface tension and viscosity, etc. as well as initial perturbation on interface. For phenomena in ordinary thermodynamic conditions (low energy density environment), many investigations have been conducted and many progresses have been reported, while for mixing in extreme thermodynamic conditions, the evolution may be very different due to ionization as well as large difference of material physical properties, which is full of scientific problems and academic interests. In this investigation, the first principle based molecular dynamic method is applied to study metal Lithium and gas Hydrogen (Li-H2) interface mixing in micro/meso scale regime at different shock compressing loading speed ranging from 3 km/s to 30 km/s. It's found that, 1) Different from low-speed shock compressing cases, in high-speed shock compresing (>9km/s) cases, a strong acceleration of metal/gas interface after strong shock compression is observed numerically, leading to a strong phase inverse and spike growing with a relative larger linear rate. And more specially, the spike growing rate is observed to be increased with shock loading speed, presenting large discrepancy with available empirical RMI models; 2) Ionization is happened in shock font zone at high-speed loading cases(>9km/s). An additional local electric field induced by the inhomogeneous diffusion of electrons and nuclei after shock font is observed to occur near the metal/gas interface, leading to a large acceleration of nuclei in this zone; 3) In conclusion, the work of additional electric field contributes to a mechanism of RMI in micro/meso scale regime at extreme shock compressing conditions, i.e., a Rayleigh-Taylor instability(RTI) is induced by additional electric field during RMI mixing process and thus a larger linear growing rate of interface spike.

Keywords: ionization, micro/meso scale, material mixing, shock

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Authors: Deginet Aklilu, Tianqi Wang, Endwoke Amsalu, Wei Feng, Zhiwei Li, Xia Li, Lixin Tao, Yanxia Luo, Moning Guo, Xiangtong Liu, Xiuhua Guo

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Extreme temperature-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have become a growing public health concern. However, the impact of temperature on the cause of specific CVDs has not been well studied in the study area. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of temperature on cause-specific cardiovascular hospital admissions in Beijing, China. We obtained data from 172 large general hospitals from the Beijing Public Health Information Center Cardiovascular Case Database and China. Meteorological Administration covering 16 districts in Beijing from 2013 to 2017. We used a time-stratified case crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to derive the impact of temperature on CVD in hospitals back to 27 days on CVD admissions. The temperature data were stratified as cold (extreme and moderate ) and hot (moderate and extreme ). Within five years (January 2013-December 2017), a total of 460,938 (male 54.9% and female 45.1%) CVD admission cases were reported. The exposure-response relationship for hospitalization was described by a "J" shape for the total and cause-specific. An increase in the six-day moving average temperature from moderate hot (30.2 °C) to extreme hot (36.9 °C) resulted in a significant increase in CVD admissions of 16.1%(95% CI = 12.8%-28.9%). However, the effect of cold temperature exposure on CVD admissions over a lag time of 0-27 days was found to be non significant, with a relative risk of 0.45 (95% CI = 0.378-0.55) for extreme cold (-8.5 °C)and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.47-0.60) for moderate cold (-5.6 °C). The results of this study indicate that exposure to extremely high temperatures is highly associated with an increase in cause-specific CVD admissions. These finding may guide to create and raise awareness of the general population, government and private sectors regarding on the effects of current weather conditions on CVD.

Keywords: admission, Beijing, cardiovascular diseases, distributed lag non linear model, temperature

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Authors: B. S. Akhmetov, P. T.Kharitonov, L. Sh. Balgabayeva, O. V. Kisseleva, T. S. Kartbayev

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This article analyzes the applicability of known renewable energy technical means as mobile power sources under the field and extreme conditions. The requirements are determined for the parameters of mobile micro-HPP. The application prospectively of the mobile micro-HPP with intelligent control systems is proved for this purpose. Variants of low-speed electric generators for micro HPP are given. Variants of designs for mobile micro HPP are presented with the direct (gearless) transfer of torque from the hydraulic drive to the rotor of the electric generator. Variant of the hydraulic drive for micro HPP is described workable at low water flows. A general structure of the micro HPP intelligent system control is offered that implements the principle of maximum energy efficiency. The legitimacy of construction and application of mobile micro HPP is proved as electrical power sources for life safety of people under the field and extreme conditions.

Keywords: mobile micro-hydro powerplants, information management systems, hydraulic drive, computer science

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Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro

Abstract:

Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Saad Ahmed, Sanjeev Khannaa

Abstract:

Glass fiber reinforced polymers are widely used in structural systems as load-bearing elements at both high and low temperatures. This investigation presents the evaluation of glass fiber reinforced unsaturated polyurethane under harsh conditions of changing temperature and moisture content. This study Explores how these parameters affect the optical properties of the polymer matrix and the composite. Using the hand layup method, the polyurethane resin was modified by E-glass fibers (15 vol. %) to manufacture fiber-reinforced composite. This work includes the preparation of glass-like polyurethane resin sheets and estimates all light transmittance properties at high and very low temperatures and wet conditions. All-optical properties were retested to evaluate the level of improvement or failure. The results found that when comprising reinforced composite fiber to the unreinforced specimens, the reinforced composite shows a fair optical property at high temperatures and good performance at low temperatures.

Keywords: unsaturated polyurethane, extreme temperatures, light transmittance, haze number

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

Abstract:

This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 283