Search results for: bitcoin improvement proposals

Authors: Rodrigo Costa, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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This study analyzes the evolution of Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs), the self-governing mechanism that enables updates to the Bitcoin protocol. By modeling BIP submission frequencies with a Negative Binomial distribution and detecting change points with the Pelt Rupture model, we identify three distinct intervals of proposal activity, suggesting shifts in development priorities over time. Long-term growth patterns, captured by Gompertz and Weibull models, indicate an S-shaped trend in cumulative BIP counts, pointing toward a maturation phase in Bitcoin’s protocol. Our findings suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a stable stage, with fewer fundamental changes and more incremental enhancements. This trend highlights the need for further research into BIP content and more studies into its dynamics to better understand decentralized protocol governance and maturation.

Keywords: bitcoin improvement proposals, innovation management, change point detection, systems modeling, simulation

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Authors: Shashwat Gangwal

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This paper analyses the effect of adding Bitcoin, to the portfolio (stocks, bonds, Baltic index, MXEF, gold, real estate and crude oil) of an international investor by using daily data available from 2^nd of July, 2010 to 2^{nd of} August, 2016. We conclude that adding Bitcoin to portfolio, over the course of the considered period, always yielded a higher Sharpe ratio. This means that Bitcoin’s returns offset its high volatility. This paper, recognizing the fact that Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, gives the readers a basic idea about the working of the virtual currency, the increasing number developments in the financial industry revolving around it, its unique features and the detailed look into its continuously growing acceptance across different fronts (Banks, Merchants and Countries) globally. We also construct optimal portfolios to reflect the highly lucrative and largely unexplored opportunities associated with investment in Bitcoin.

Keywords: bitcoin, financial instruments, portfolio management, risk adjusted return

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Authors: Fady Tawakol

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BitCoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency that can be used without the need of traditional central banks to accomplish any e-commerce trade. The use of such currency could facilitate new economic interactions and linkages. However, without effective and efficient regulations, cryptocurrency transactions are mostly used by criminals to commit crimes such as money laundering, theft, and blackmailing. And because law is one step behind technological developments, this paper discusses the importance of regulations and supervision for the BitCoin-system, to provide unified regulatory solutions for our digital future in the Middle East. It will provide a detailed analysis of the legal nature of BitCoin along with, its regulation with respect to criminal and civil law.

Keywords: BitCoin, financial protection, crypto currency, money laundering

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Authors: Olfa Kaabia, Ilyes Abid, Khaled Guesmi

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This pioneer paper studies whether and how Bitcoin shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy. We employ a new methodology: TVP FAVAR model with stochastic volatility. We use a large dataset of 111 major U.S variables from 1959:m1 to 2016:m12. The results show that Bitcoin shocks significantly impact the U.S. economy. This significant impact is pronounced in a volatile and increasing U.S economy. The Bitcoin has a positive relationship on the U.S real activity, and a negative one on U.S prices and interest rates. Effects on the Monetary Policy exist via the inter-est rates and the Money, Credit and Finance transmission channels.

Keywords: bitcoin, US economy, FAVAR models, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Oliver Takawira, Thembi Hope

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This study will analyse the relationship between Bitcoin price movements and the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The aim is to determine whether Bitcoin price movements affect the stock market performance. As crypto currencies continue to gain prominence as a safe asset during periods of economic distress, this raises the question of whether Bitcoin’s prosperity could affect investment in the stock market. To identify the existence of a short run and long run linear relationship, the study will apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after testing the data for unit roots and cointegration using the Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP). The Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) will then be used to check if there is a non-linear relationship between bitcoin prices and stock market prices.

Keywords: bitcoin, stock market, interest rates, ARDL

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Authors: Abdelhalem Shahen

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The world is now experiencing a digital revolution and greatly accelerated technological developments, in addition to the transition from the economy in its traditional form to the digital economy, which has resulted in the emergence of new tools that are appropriate to those developments, and from this, this paper attempts to explore the economic characteristics of the bitcoin currency that circulated recently. Due to the many advantages that distinguish it from money in its traditional forms, which have a range of economic effects. The study found that Bitcoin is among the technological innovations, which contain a set of characteristics that are worth studying, those that make it the focus of attention, such as the digital currency, the peer-to-peer property, Lower and Faster Transaction Costs, transparency, decentralized control, privacy, and Double-Spending, as well as security and Cryptographic, and finally mining.

Keywords: Digital Economics, Digital Currencies, Bitcoin, Features of Bitcoin

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Authors: Mohamed Rasslan, Doaa Abdelrahman, Mahmoud M. Nasreldin, Ghada Farouk, Heba K. Aslan

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Blockchain is a distributed database that endorses transparency while bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency (electronic cash) that endorses anonymity and is powered by blockchain technology. Smart contracts are programs that are stored on a blockchain. Smart contracts are executed when predetermined conditions are fulfilled. Smart contracts automate the agreement execution in order to make sure that all participants immediate-synchronism of the outcome-certainty, without any intermediary's involvement or time loss. Currently, the Bitcoin market worth billions of dollars. Bitcoin could be transferred from one purchaser to another without the need for an intermediary bank. Network nodes through cryptography verify bitcoin transactions, which are registered in a public-book called “blockchain”. Bitcoin could be replaced by other coins, merchandise, and services. Rapid growing of the bitcoin market-value, encourages its counterparts to make use of its weaknesses and exploit vulnerabilities for profit. Moreover, it motivates scientists to define known vulnerabilities, offer countermeasures, and predict future threats. In his paper, we study blockchain technology and bitcoin from the attacker’s point of view. Furthermore, mitigations for the attacks are suggested, and contemporary security solutions are discussed. Finally, research methods that achieve strict security and privacy protocol are elaborated.

Keywords: Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain, Bitcoin, Smart Contracts, Peer-to-Peer Network, Security Issues, Privacy Techniques

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Authors: Muntadher Sallal, Gareth Owenson, Mo Adda, Safa Shubbar

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Bitcoin is a digital currency based on a peer-to-peer network to propagate and verify transactions. Bitcoin is gaining wider adoption than any previous crypto-currency. However, the mechanism of peers randomly choosing logical neighbors without any knowledge about underlying physical topology can cause a delay overhead in information propagation, which makes the system vulnerable to double-spend attacks. Aiming at alleviating the propagation delay problem, this paper introduces proximity-aware extensions to the current Bitcoin protocol, named Master Node Based Clustering (MNBC). The ultimate purpose of the proposed protocol, that are based on how clusters are formulated and how nodes can define their membership, is to improve the information propagation delay in the Bitcoin network. In MNBC protocol, physical internet connectivity increases, as well as the number of hops between nodes, decreases through assigning nodes to be responsible for maintaining clusters based on physical internet proximity. We show, through simulations, that the proposed protocol defines better clustering structures that optimize the performance of the transaction propagation over the Bitcoin protocol. The evaluation of partition attacks in the MNBC protocol, as well as the Bitcoin network, was done in this paper. Evaluation results prove that even though the Bitcoin network is more resistant against the partitioning attack than the MNBC protocol, more resources are needed to be spent to split the network in the MNBC protocol, especially with a higher number of nodes.

Keywords: Bitcoin network, propagation delay, clustering, scalability

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Authors: J-C. Leneveu, A. Chereau, L. Mansart, T. Mesbah, M. Wyka

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Extracting and interpreting information from Big Data represent a stake for years to come in several sectors such as finance. Currently, numerous methods are used (such as Technical Analysis) to try to understand and to anticipate market behavior, with mixed results because it still seems impossible to exactly predict a financial trend. The increase of available data on Internet and their diversity represent a great opportunity for the financial world. Indeed, it is possible, along with these standard financial data, to focus on exogenous data to take into account more macroeconomic factors. Coupling the interpretation of these data with standard methods could allow obtaining more precise trend predictions. In this paper, in order to observe the influence of exogenous data price independent of other usual effects occurring in classical markets, behaviors of Bitcoin users are introduced in a model reconstituting Bitcoin value, which is elaborated and tested for prediction purposes.

Keywords: big data, bitcoin, data mining, social network, financial trends, exogenous data, global economy, behavioral finance

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Authors: John Dorrell, Matthew Ambrosia, Abilash

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This paper employs econometric analysis to quantify the potential profit wind farms can receive by allocating excess wind energy to power bitcoin mining machines. Cryptocurrency mining consumes a substantial amount of electricity worldwide, and wind energy produces a significant amount of energy that is lost because of the intermittent nature of the resource. Supply does not always match consumer demand. By combining the weaknesses of these two technologies, we can improve efficiency and a sustainable path to mine cryptocurrencies. This paper uses historical wind energy from the ERCOT network in Texas and cryptocurrency data from 2000-2021, to create 4-year return on investment projections. Our research model incorporates the price of bitcoin, the price of the miner, the hash rate of the miner relative to the network hash rate, the block reward, the bitcoin transaction fees awarded to the miners, the mining pool fees, the cost of the electricity and the percentage of time the miner will be running to demonstrate that wind farms generate enough excess energy to mine bitcoin profitably. Excess wind energy can be used as a financial battery, which can utilize wasted electricity by changing it into economic energy. The findings of our research determine that wind energy producers can earn profit while not taking away much if any, electricity from the grid. According to our results, Bitcoin mining could give as much as 1347% and 805% return on investment with the starting dates of November 1, 2021, and November 1, 2022, respectively, using wind farm curtailment. This paper is helpful to policymakers and investors in determining efficient and sustainable ways to power our economic future. This paper proposes a practical solution for the problem of crypto mining energy consumption and creates a more sustainable energy future for Bitcoin.

Keywords: bitcoin, mining, economics, energy

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Authors: Sthembile Mthethwa

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With the rise in the usage of internet in the past decades, this presented an opportunity for users to transact with each other over the use of internet. Cryptocurrencies have been introduced, which allows users to transact with each other without the involvement of a third party i.e. the bank. These systems are widely known as cryptocurrencies or digital currencies and the first system to be introduced was Bitcoin which has been receiving a lot of attention. Bitcoin introduced a new technology known as the blockchain technology. In the past years, blockchain has been getting attention; whereby new applications are introduced that utilize blockchain. Yet, most people are still hesitant about the adoption of blockchain and the adoption of cryptocurrencies at large. Some people still do not understand the technology. Thus, it leads to the slow adoption of this technology. In this paper, a review of the blockchain is provided, whereby the different types of blockchain are discussed in details. Details of the things that contribute to the hindrance of the process of adoption are discussed.

Keywords: bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrency, payment system

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Authors: Mohammad Hosein Panahi, Naser Yazdani

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we present a technical trading strategy that leverages the FinBERT language model and financial news analysis with a focus on news related to a subset of Nasdaq 100 stocks. Our approach surpasses the baseline Range Break-out strategy in the Bitcoin market, yielding a remarkable 24.8% increase in the win ratio for all Friday trades and an impressive 48.9% surge in short trades specifically on Fridays. Moreover, we conduct rigorous hypothesis testing to establish the statistical significance of these improvements. Our findings underscore considerable potential of our NLP-driven approach in enhancing trading strategies and achieving greater profitability within financial markets.

Keywords: quantitative finance, technical analysis, bitcoin market, NLP, language models, FinBERT, technical trading

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Authors: Zakaria S. G. Hegazy, Walid M. A. Ahmed

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This paper examines the dependence structure of Islamic stock markets on Bitcoin’s realized volatility components in bear, normal, and bull market periods. A quantile regression approach is employed, after adjusting raw returns with respect to a broad set of relevant global factors and accounting for structural breaks in the data. The results reveal that upside volatility tends to exert negative influences on Islamic developed-market returns more in bear than in bull market conditions, while downside volatility positively affects returns during bear and bull conditions. For emerging markets, we find that the upside (downside) component exerts lagged negative (positive) effects on returns in bear (all) market regimes. By and large, the dependence structures turn out to be asymmetric. Our evidence provides essential implications for investors.

Keywords: cryptocurrency markets, bitcoin, realized volatility measures, asymmetry, quantile regression

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Authors: Saransh Sharma, Atharv Dekhne

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Passwords stored on central services and hashed are prone to cyberattacks and hacks. Hence, given all these nuisances, there’s a need to eliminate character-based authentication protocols, which would ultimately benefit all developers as well as end-users.To replace this conventional but antiquated protocol with a secure alternative would be Passwordless Authentication. The meta root.id system creates a public and private key, of which the user is only able to access the private key. Further, after signing the key, the user sends the information over the API to the server, which checks its validity with the public key and grants access accordingly.

Keywords: passwordless, OAuth, bitcoin, ZKP, SIN, BIP

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Authors: Diana Fajardo, Sebastián Ortiz, Oscar Herrera, Angélica Santis

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Currently, in Colombia is arising a problem related to collecting used lubricant oils which are generated by the increment of the vehicle fleet. This situation does not allow a proper disposal of this type of waste, which in turn results in a negative impact on the environment. Therefore, through the comparative analysis of various heuristics, the best solution to the VRP (Vehicle Routing Problem) was selected by comparing costs and times for the collection of used lubricant oils in the city of Pereira, Colombia; since there is no presence of management companies engaged in the direct administration of the collection of this pollutant. To achieve this aim, six proposals of through methods of solution of two phases were discussed. First, the assignment of the group of generator points of the residue was made (previously identified). Proposals one and four of through methods are based on the closeness of points. The proposals two and five are using the scanning method and the proposals three and six are considering the restriction of the capacity of collection vehicle. Subsequently, the routes were developed - in the first three proposals by the Clarke and Wright's savings algorithm and in the following proposals by the Traveling Salesman optimization mathematical model. After applying techniques, a comparative analysis of the results was performed and it was determined which of the proposals presented the most optimal values in terms of the distance, cost and travel time.

Keywords: Heuristics, optimization Model, savings algorithm, used vehicular oil, V.R.P.

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Authors: Kristof Lukas Heidemann

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In response to the present-day worldwide regression in the prevalence and vitality of contemporary democratic systems proponents of democracy have made several proposals to reverse this global trajectory through constitutional law reforms, creating the democratic innovations discourse. This critical review analyzes the different typologies that have been put forward to systematize the suggested democratic innovations and argues that the typologies all either omit some existing proposals or include overlapping types. Therefore, the review endorses possible adaptations regarding the more comprehensive typologies and gives recommendations for further research.

Keywords: citizen participation, constitutional law, deliberative democracy, democracy, democratic innovations, law and legislation, law reform, literature review

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Authors: Neliswa Dyosi

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Purpose - Using an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and the model of technology appropriation (MTA) as a theoretical lens, this interpretive qualitative study seeks to understand and explain the factors that influence the appropriation, non-appropriation, and disappropriation of bitcoin as a payment method by South African retailers. Design/methodology/approach –The study adopts the interpretivist philosophical paradigm. Multiple case studies will be adopted as a research strategy. For data collection, the study follows a qualitative approach. Qualitative data will be collected from the six retailers in various industries. Semi-structured interviews and documents will be used as the data collection techniques. Purposive and snowballing sampling techniques will be used to identify participants within the organizations. Data will be analyzed using thematic analysis. Originality/value - Using the deduction approach, the study seeks to provide a descriptive and explanatory contribution to theory. The study contributes to theory development by integrating the MTA and TOE frameworks as a means to understand technology adoption behaviors of organizations, in this case, retailers. This is also the first study that looks at an integrated approach of the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and the MTA framework to understand the adoption and use of a payment method. South Africa is ranked amongst the top ten countries in the world on cryptocurrency adoption. There is, however, still a dearth of literature on the current state of adoption and usage of bitcoin as a payment method in South Africa. The study will contribute to the existing literature as bitcoin cryptocurrency is gaining popularity as an alternative payment method across the globe.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, bitcoin, payment methods, blockchain, appropriation, online retailers, TOE framework, disappropriation, non-appropriation

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Authors: Jiaqi Yan, Yani Shi

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With the growing popularity of bitcoin transactions, criminals have exploited the bitcoin like cryptocurrencies, and cybercriminals such as money laundering have thrived. Unlike traditional currencies, the Internet-based virtual currencies can be used anonymously via the blockchain technology underpinning. In this paper, we analyze the double-edged sword features of blockchain technology in the context of money laundering. In particular, the traceability feature of blockchain-based system facilitates a level of governance, while the decentralization feature of blockchain-based system may bring governing difficulties. Based on the analysis, we propose guidelines for policy makers in governing blockchain-based cryptocurrency systems.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, money laundering, blockchain, decentralization, traceability

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Authors: Muhammad Nooraiman bin Noorashid, Mohd Sharizuan bin Mohd Omar, Mohd Zabri Adil bin Talib, Aswami Fadillah bin Mohd Ariffin

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Nowadays cryptocurrency has become a global phenomenon known to most people. People using this alternative digital money to do a transaction in many ways (e.g. Used for online shopping, wealth management, and fundraising). However, this digital asset also widely used in criminal activities since its use decentralized control as opposed to centralized electronic money and central banking systems and this makes a user, who used this currency invisible. The high-value exchange of these digital currencies also has been a target to criminal activities. The cryptocurrency crimes have become a challenge for the law enforcement to analyze and to proof the evidence as criminal devices. In this paper, our focus is more on bitcoin cryptocurrency and the possible artifacts that can be obtained from the different type of digital wallet, which is software and browser-based application. The process memory and physical hard disk are examined with the aims of identifying and recovering potential digital evidence. The stage of data acquisition divided by three states which are the initial creation of the wallet, transaction that consists transfer and receiving a coin and the last state is after the wallet is being deleted. Findings from this study suggest that both data from software and browser type of wallet process memory is a valuable source of evidence, and many of the artifacts found in process memory are also available from the application and wallet files on the client computer storage.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, bitcoin, digital wallet, digital forensics

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Authors: Nidhal Mgadmi, Abdelhafidh Othmani

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This article examines the causal relationship between stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the current war between Russia and Ukraine. The econometric investigation runs from February 24, 2022, to April 12, 2023, focusing on seven stock market indices (S&P500, DAX, CAC40, Nikkei, TSX, MOEX, and PFTS) and seven cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litcoin, Dash, Ripple, DigiByte and XEM). In this article, we try to understand how investors react to fluctuations in financial assets to seek safe havens in cryptocurrencies. We used dynamic causality to detect a possible causal relationship in the short term and seven models to estimate the long-term relationship between cryptocurrencies and financial assets. The causal relationship between financial market indexes and cryptocurrency coins in the short run indicates that three famous cryptocurrencies (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, RIPPLE) and the two digital assets with minor popularity (XEM, Digibyte) are impacted by the German, Russian, and Ukrainian stock markets. In the long run, we found a positive and significate effect of the American, Canadian, French, and Ukrainian stock market indexes on Bitcoin. Thus, the stability of the traditional financial markets during the current war period can be explained on the one hand by investors’ fears of an unstable business climate, and on the other hand, by speculators’ sentiment towards new electronic products, which are perceived as hedging instruments and a safe haven in the face of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Keywords: causality, stock indices, cryptocurrency, war, Russia, Ukraine

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Authors: Malaw Ndiaye, Karim Konate

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Smart contracts are computer protocols that facilitate, verify, and execute the negotiation or execution of a contract, or that render a contractual term unnecessary. Blockchain and smart contracts can be used to facilitate almost any financial transaction. Thanks to these smart contracts, the settlement of dividends and coupons could be automated. Smart contracts have become lucrative and profitable targets for attackers because they can hold a great amount of money. Smart contracts, although widely used in blockchain technology, are far from perfect due to security concerns. Since there are recent studies on smart contract security, none of them systematically study the strengths and weaknesses of smart contract security. Some have focused on an analysis of program-related vulnerabilities by providing a taxonomy of vulnerabilities. Other studies are responsible for listing the series of attacks linked to smart contracts. Although a series of attacks are listed, there is a lack of discussions and proposals on improving security. This survey takes stock of smart contract security from a more comprehensive perspective by correlating the level of vulnerability and systematic review of security levels in smart contracts.

Keywords: blockchain, Bitcoin, smart contract, criminal smart contract, security

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Authors: Felib Ayman Shawky Salem

Abstract:

Nowadays crypto currency has become a global phenomenon known to most people. People using this alternative digital money to do a transaction in many ways (e.g. Used for online shopping, wealth management, and fundraising). However, this digital asset also widely used in criminal activities since its use decentralized control as opposed to centralized electronic money and central banking systems and this makes a user, who used this currency invisible. The high-value exchange of these digital currencies also has been a target to criminal activities. The crypto currency crimes have become a challenge for the law enforcement to analyze and to proof the evidence as criminal devices. In this paper, our focus is more on bitcoin crypto currency and the possible artifacts that can be obtained from the different type of digital wallet, which is software and browser-based application. The process memory and physical hard disk are examined with the aims of identifying and recovering potential digital evidence. The stage of data acquisition divided by three states which are the initial creation of the wallet, transaction that consists transfer and receiving a coin and the last state is after the wallet is being deleted. Findings from this study suggest that both data from software and browser type of wallet process memory is a valuable source of evidence, and many of the artifacts found in process memory are also available from the application and wallet files on the client computer storage.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, bitcoin, payment methods, blockchain, appropriation, online retailers, TOE framework, disappropriation, non-appropriationBitCoin, financial protection, crypto currency, money laundering cryptocurrency, digital wallet, digital forensics

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Authors: Surayyo Shaamirova, Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman

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This study investigates the co-integration association between the top 10 cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Cardano, Litecoin, Stellar, IOTA, and NEO. The study applies Johansen Juselius co-integration test to examine the long-run co-integration and utilize the Engle and Granger casualty test to examine the short-run relationship. The findings of the study show that there is a strong co-integration relationship among the cryptocurrencies; however, in the short run, there is no causal relationship among the crypto currencies. These results, therefore, suggest that there are portfolio diversification opportunities in the cryptocurrencies industry when it comes to long run investment decisions, on the other hand, the cryptocurrencies industry shows the characteristics of efficiency in the short-run. This is an indication of a non-speculation investment in the cryptocurrencies industry in the short term investment.

Keywords: cryptocurrencies, Johansen-Juselius co-integration test, Engle and Granger casualty test, portfolio diversification

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Authors: Lali Khurtsia, Vano Tsertsvadze

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Georgian drug policy is directed to reduce the supply of drugs. Retrospective analysis has shown that law enforcement activities have been followed by the expulsion of particular injecting drugs. The demand remains unchanged and drugs are substituted by the hand-made, even more dangerous homemade drugs entered the market. To find out expected new trends on the Georgian drug market, qualitative study was conducted with Georgian drug users to determine drug supply routes. It turned out that drug suppliers and consumers for safety reasons and to protect their anonymity, use Skype to make deals. IT in illegal drug trade is even more sophisticated in the worldwide. Trading with Bitcoins in the Darknet ensures high confidentiality of money transactions and the safe circulation of drugs. In 2014 largest Bitcoin mining enterprise in the world was built in Georgia. We argue that the use of Bitcoins and Darknet by Georgian drug consumers and suppliers will be an incentive to response adequately to the government's policy of restricting supply in order to satisfy market demand for drugs.

Keywords: bitcoin, darknet, drugs, policy

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Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

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Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Vitali Kremez

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The researcher monitored an organized ransomware campaign in order to gain significant visibility into the tactics, techniques, and procedures employed by a campaign boss operating a ransomware scheme out of Russia. As the Russian hacking community lowered the access requirements for unsophisticated Russian cybercriminals to engage in ransomware campaigns, corporations and individuals face a commensurately greater challenge of effectively protecting their data and operations from being held ransom. This report discusses two notorious ransomware campaigns. Though the loss of data can be devastating, the findings demonstrate that sending ransom payments does not always help obtain data. Key learnings: 1. From the ransomware affiliate perspective, such campaigns have significantly lowered the barriers for entry for low-tier cybercriminals. 2. Ransomware revenue amounts are not as glamorous and fruitful as they are often publicly reported. Average ransomware crime bosses make only $90K per year on average. 3. Data gathered indicates that sending ransom payments does not always help obtain data. 4. The talk provides the complete payout structure and Bitcoin laundering operation related to the ransomware-as-a-service campaign.

Keywords: bitcoin, cybercrime, ransomware, Russia

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Authors: Rodrigo Guimarães Santos

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The quality of public transport services has been considered as a critical factor by their users and also by users of individual transport. Thus, this dissertation aims to adapt a model that assesses the quality of public transport and determines its level of service based on the views of its users. The methodology is widely used by marketers and allows measuring the quality of services by assessing the perceptions and expectations of users. The adapted SERVQUAL was tested with users of public transport service users and car in Brasília-DF, city of Brazil. This research involved 241 questionnaires answered by people living in the various administrative regions of Brasília-DF. The analysis of the determinants pointed out that the quality of the public transport service offered in the city is low and users of public transport and cars have a high degree of expectations for improvement in all tested determinants. This method enabled the identification of the most critical determinants and those needing strategic actions for continuous improvement of quality. Adapting the SERVQUAL for a public transport service was satisfactory and demonstrated applicability to internal and external services, including measuring the public transport services in other cities with the opinion of the users.

Keywords: transportation services, quality services, servqual scale and marketing services

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Authors: Wilmer Osvaldo Martinez, Manuel Dario Hernandez, Juan Manuel Julio

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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through stochastic loss order rather than expected loss order, which is the way it is customarily performed in previous work. Moreover, since forecast performance evaluation can be understood as a one way analysis of variance, we propose to explore loss distributions under two circumstances; when a strict (but unknown) joint stochastic order exists among the losses of all forecast alternatives, and when such order happens among subsets of alternative procedures. In spite of the fact that loss stochastic order is stronger than loss moment order, our proposals are at least as powerful as competing tests, and are robust to the correlation, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity settings they consider. In addition, since our proposals do not require samples of the same size, their scope is also wider, and provided that they test the whole loss distribution instead of just loss moments, they can also be used to study forecast distributions as well. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposals by evaluating a set of real world forecasts.

Keywords: forecast evaluation, stochastic order, multiple comparison, non parametric test

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Authors: Reza Davoodi, Hamid Abbasi, Heidar Norouzi, Gholamabbas Alipourian

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A dynamic model shaping a process of knowledge management (KM) culture change is suggested. It is aimed at providing effective KM of employees for obtaining desired results in an organization. The essential requirements for obtaining KM culture change are determined. The proposed model realizes these requirements. Dynamics of the model are expressed by a change of its parameters. It is adjusted to the dynamic process of KM culture change. Building the model includes elaboration and integration of interconnected components. The “Result” is a central component of the model. This component determines a desired organizational goal and possible directions of its attainment. The “Confront” component engenders constructive confrontation in an organization. For this reason, the employees are prompted toward KM culture change with the purpose of attaining the desired result. The “Assess” component realizes complex assessments of employee proposals by management and peers. The proposals are directed towards attaining the desired result in an organization. The “Reward” component sets the order of assigning rewards to employees based on the assessments of their proposals.

Keywords: knowledge management, organizational culture change, employee, result

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Authors: Toby Gibbs, Suwaree Yordchim

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This research analyzes factors affecting the success of Litecoin Value within Thailand and develops a guideline for self-reliance for effective business implementation. Samples in this study included 119 people through surveys. The results revealed four main factors affecting the success as follows: 1) Future Career training should be pursued in applied Litecoin development. 2) Didn't grasp the concept of a digital currency or see the benefit of a digital currency. 3) There is a great need to educate the next generation of learners on the benefits of Litecoin within the community. 4) A great majority didn't know what Litecoin was. The guideline for self-reliance planning consisted of 4 aspects: 1) Development planning: by arranging meet up groups to conduct further education on Litecoin and share solutions on adoption into every day usage. Local communities need to develop awareness of the usefulness of Litecoin and share the value of Litecoin among friends and family. 2) Computer Science and Business Management staff should develop skills to expand on the benefits of Litecoin within their departments. 3) Further research should be pursued on how Litecoin Value can improve business and tourism within Thailand. 4) Local communities should focus on developing Litecoin awareness by encouraging street vendors to accept Litecoin as another form of payment for services rendered.

Keywords: bitcoin, cryptocurrency, decentralized, business implementation

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