Search results for: uncertainty quantification.

Authors: YongXian, JIN

Abstract:

Introducing survivability into embedded real-time system (ERTS) can improve the survivability power of the system. This paper mainly discusses about the survivability of ERTS. The first is the survivability origin of ERTS. The second is survivability analysis. According to the definition of survivability based on survivability specification and division of the entire survivability analysis process for ERTS, a survivability analysis profile is presented. The quantitative analysis model of this profile is emphasized and illuminated in detail, the quantifying analysis of system was showed helpful to evaluate system survivability more accurate. The third is platform design of survivability analysis. In terms of the profile, the analysis process is encapsulated and assembled into one platform, on which quantification, standardization and simplification of survivability analysis are all achieved. The fourth is survivability design. According to character of ERTS, strengthened design method is selected to realize system survivability design. Through the analysis of embedded mobile video-on-demand system, intrusion tolerant technology is introduced in whole survivability design.

Keywords: ERTS (embedded real-time system), survivability, quantitative analysis, survivability specification, intrusion tolerant

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Authors: Gholamreza Ghodrati Amiri, Mojtaba Jafarian Abyaneh, Ali Zare Hosseinzadeh

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This paper presents an effective model updating strategy for damage localization and quantification in frames by defining damage detection problem as an optimization issue. A generalized version of the Modal Residual Force (MRF) is employed for presenting a new damage-sensitive cost function. Then, Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm is utilized for solving suggested inverse problem and the global extremums are reported as damage detection results. The applicability of the presented method is investigated by studying different damage patterns on the benchmark problem of the IASC-ASCE, as well as a planar shear frame structure. The obtained results emphasize good performance of the method not only in free-noise cases, but also when the input data are contaminated with different levels of noises.

Keywords: Frame, grey wolf optimization algorithm, modal residual force, structural damage detection.

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Authors: Gerard E. Sleefe

Abstract:

There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that simultaneously optimizes innovation attributes along with traditional project management and system engineering attributes. To demonstrate the efficacy of the new riskbased approach, a comprehensive product development experiment was conducted. This experiment simultaneously managed the innovation risks and the product delivery risks through the proposed risk-based framework. Quantitative metrics for technology innovation were tracked and the experimental results indicate that the risk-based approach can simultaneously achieve both project deliverable and innovation objectives.

Keywords: innovation, risk assessment, product development, technology management.

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Authors: M.H.Aziz, Erik L.J.Bohez, Manukid Parnichkun, Chanchal Saha

Abstract:

Petri Net (PN) has proven to be effective graphical, mathematical, simulation, and control tool for Discrete Event Systems (DES). But, with the growth in the complexity of modern industrial, and communication systems, PN found themselves inadequate to address the problems of uncertainty, and imprecision in data. This gave rise to amalgamation of Fuzzy logic with Petri nets and a new tool emerged with the name of Fuzzy Petri Nets (FPN). Although there had been a lot of research done on FPN and a number of their applications have been anticipated, but their basic types and structure are still ambiguous. Therefore, in this research, an effort is made to categorize FPN according to their structure and algorithms Further, literature review of the applications of FPN in the light of their classifications has been done.

Keywords: Discrete event systems, Fuzzy logic, Fuzzy Petri nets, and Petri nets.

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Authors: Vasudha Bhatnagar, Ahmed Sultan Al-Hegami, Naveen Kumar

Abstract:

Rule Discovery is an important technique for mining knowledge from large databases. Use of objective measures for discovering interesting rules lead to another data mining problem, although of reduced complexity. Data mining researchers have studied subjective measures of interestingness to reduce the volume of discovered rules to ultimately improve the overall efficiency of KDD process. In this paper we study novelty of the discovered rules as a subjective measure of interestingness. We propose a hybrid approach that uses objective and subjective measures to quantify novelty of the discovered rules in terms of their deviations from the known rules. We analyze the types of deviation that can arise between two rules and categorize the discovered rules according to the user specified threshold. We implement the proposed framework and experiment with some public datasets. The experimental results are quite promising.

Keywords: Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), Data Mining, Rule Discovery, Interestingness, Subjective Measures, Novelty Measure.

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Authors: Adam Galuszka, Krzysztof Skrzypczyk, Damian Bereska, Marcin Pacholczyk

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In this paper an average number of re-handlings analysis is proposed to solve the problem of finding bays configuration in small container terminal in Gliwice, Poland. Rehandlings in this terminal can be performed only by reachstackers. The goal of the heuristic is to plan the reachstacter moves in the terminal, assuming that the target containers are reached and the number of re-handings is minimized. The real situation requires also to take into account the model of the problem environment uncertainty caused by the fact that many containers are not delivered to the terminal on time, or can not be sent on scheduled time. To enable this, the heuristic uses some assumptions to simplify problem analysis.

Keywords: Container Terminal, Re-handling operations, Computational efficiency, WiMax.

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Authors: K. M. Alsager, N. O. Alshehri

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In this paper, we proposed the notion of single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy rough set, by combining single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set and rough set. The combination of single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set and rough set is a powerful tool for dealing with uncertainty, granularity and incompleteness of knowledge in information systems. We presented both definition and some basic properties of the proposed model. Finally, we gave a general approach which is applied to a decision making problem in disease diagnoses, and demonstrated the effectiveness of the approach by a numerical example.

Keywords: Single valued neutrosophic hesitant set, single valued neutrosophic hesitant relation, single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy rough set, decision making method.

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, A. Castelli, E. Benini

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The flow field over a flat roof model building has been numerically investigated in order to determine threedimensional CFD guidelines for the calculation of the turbulent flow over a structure immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer. To this purpose, a complete validation campaign has been performed through a systematic comparison of numerical simulations with wind tunnel experimental data. Wind tunnel measurements and numerical predictions have been compared for five different vertical positions, respectively from the upstream leading edge to the downstream bottom edge of the analyzed model. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the building model have been numerically investigated, allowing a quantification of the capabilities of the CFD code to predict the flow separation and the extension of the recirculation regions. The proposed calculations have allowed the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a three-dimensional roof architecture dominated by flow separation.

Keywords: CFD, roof, building, wind

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Authors: Artur Krukowski, Emmanouela Vogiatzaki

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The article presents results from the AF3 project “Advanced Forest Fire Fighting” focused on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)-based 3D surveillance and 3D area mapping using high-resolution photogrammetric methods from multispectral imaging, also taking advantage of the 3D scanning techniques from the SCAN4RECO project. We also present a proprietary embedded sensor system used for the detection of fire ignitions in the forest using near-infrared based scanner with weight and form factors allowing it to be easily deployed on standard commercial micro-UAVs, such as DJI Inspire or Mavic. Results from real-life pilot trials in Greece, Spain, and Israel demonstrated added-value in the use of UAS for precise and reliable detection of forest fires, as well as high-resolution 3D aerial modeling for accurate quantification of human resources and equipment required for firefighting.

Keywords: Forest wildfires, fuel volume estimation, 3D modeling, UAV, surveillance, firefighting, ignition detectors.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, M. Rezaei, V. Najmi

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The Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) control system has an important effect on operation of cell. Traditional controllers couldn-t lead to acceptable responses because of time- change, long- hysteresis, uncertainty, strong- coupling and nonlinear characteristics of PEMFCs, so an intelligent or adaptive controller is needed. In this paper a neural network predictive controller have been designed to control the voltage of at the presence of fluctuations of temperature. The results of implementation of this designed NN Predictive controller on a dynamic electrochemical model of a small size 5 KW, PEM fuel cell have been simulated by MATLAB/SIMULINK.

Keywords: PEMFC, Neural Network, Predictive Control..

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Authors: Agnes Achs

Abstract:

The basic aim of our study is to give a possible model for handling uncertain information. This model is worked out in the framework of DATALOG. The concept of multivalued knowledgebase will be defined as a quadruple of any background knowledge; a deduction mechanism; a connecting algorithm, and a function set of the program, which help us to determine the uncertainty levels of the results. At first the concept of fuzzy Datalog will be summarized, then its extensions for intuitionistic- and interval-valued fuzzy logic is given and the concept of bipolar fuzzy Datalog is introduced. Based on these extensions the concept of multivalued knowledge-base will be defined. This knowledge-base can be a possible background of a future agent-model.

Keywords: Fuzzy-, intuitionistic-, bipolar datalog, multivalued knowledge-base

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Authors: Takayuki Shiina

Abstract:

We consider power system expansion planning under uncertainty. In our approach, integer programming and stochastic programming provide a basic framework. We develop a multistage stochastic programming model in which some of the variables are restricted to integer values. By utilizing the special property of the problem, called block separable recourse, the problem is transformed into a two-stage stochastic program with recourse. The electric power capacity expansion problem is reformulated as the problem with first stage integer variables and continuous second stage variables. The L-shaped algorithm to solve the problem is proposed.

Keywords: electric power capacity expansion problem, integerprogramming, L-shaped method, stochastic programming

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Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

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Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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Authors: Hojat Heidari-Bafroui, Amer Charbaji, Constantine Anagnostopoulos, Mohammad Faghri

Abstract:

Phosphorus is an essential nutrient for plant life which is most frequently found as phosphate in water. Once phosphate is found in abundance in surface water, a series of adverse effects on an ecosystem can be initiated. Therefore, a portable and reliable method is needed to monitor the phosphate concentrations in the field. In this paper, an inexpensive dip strip device with the ascorbic acid/antimony reagent dried on blotting paper along with wet chemistry is developed for the detection of low concentrations of phosphate in water. Ammonium molybdate and sulfuric acid are separately stored in liquid form so as to improve significantly the lifetime of the device and enhance the reproducibility of the device’s performance. The limit of detection and quantification for the optimized device are 0.134 ppm and 0.472 ppm for phosphate in water, respectively. The device’s shelf life, storage conditions, and limit of detection are superior to what has been previously reported for the paper-based phosphate detection devices.

Keywords: Phosphate detection, paper-based device, molybdenum blue method, colorimetric assay.

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Authors: Pankaj Dutta, Debjani Chakraborty

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This paper investigates the effect of product substitution in the single-period 'newsboy-type' problem in a fuzzy environment. It is supposed that the single-period problem operates under uncertainty in customer demand, which is described by imprecise terms and modelled by fuzzy sets. To perform this analysis, we consider the fuzzy model for two-item with upward substitution. This upward substitutability is reasonable when the products can be stored according to certain attribute levels such as quality, brand or package size. We show that the explicit consideration of this substitution opportunity increase the average expected profit. Computational study is performed to observe the benefits of product's substitution.

Keywords: Fuzzy demand, Newsboy, Single-period problem, Substitution.

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Authors: Sanmohan Krüger, Volker Krüger

Abstract:

Imitation learning is considered to be an effective way of teaching humanoid robots and action recognition is the key step to imitation learning. In this paper an online algorithm to recognize parametric actions with object context is presented. Objects are key instruments in understanding an action when there is uncertainty. Ambiguities arising in similar actions can be resolved with objectn context. We classify actions according to the changes they make to the object space. Actions that produce the same state change in the object movement space are classified to belong to the same class. This allow us to define several classes of actions where members of each class are connected with a semantic interpretation.

Keywords: Parametric actions, Action primitives, Hand gesture recognition, Imitation learning

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Authors: Noemy Witt Ferreira, Flávio de São Paulo Filho

Abstract:

Innovation, technology and knowledge are the trilogy of impact to support the challenges arising from uncertainty. Evidence showed an opportunity to ask how to manage in this environment under constant innovation. In an attempt to get a response from the field of Management Sciences, based in the Contingency Theory, a research was conducted, with phenomenological and descriptive approaches, using the Case Study Method and the usual procedures for this task involving a focus group composed of managers and employees working in the pharmaceutical field. The problem situation was raised; the state of the art was interpreted and dissected the facts. In this tasks were involved four establishments. The result indicates that these focused ventures have been managed by its founder empirically and is experimenting agility described in this work. The expectation of this study is to improve concepts for stakeholders on creativity in business.

Keywords: Administration. Innovation. Knowledge, Management Technology

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Authors: Ali N. Siyal, Saima Q. Memon, Latif Elçi, Aydan Elçi

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Polystyrene (PS) was extracted from Styrofoam (expanded polystyrene foam) waste, so called white pollutant. The PS was functionalized with N,N- Bis(2-aminobenzylidene)benzene-1,2-diamine (ABA) ligand through an azo spacer. The resin was characterized by FT-IR spectroscopy and elemental analysis. The PS-N=N-ABA resin was used for the enrichment and speciation of Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions and total Cr determination in aqueous samples by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS). The separation of Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions was achieved at pH 2. The recovery of Cr(VI) ions was achieved ≥ 95.0% at optimum parameters: pH 2; resin amount 300mg; flow rates 2.0mL min^-1 of solution and 2.0mL min^-1 of eluent (2.0mol L^-1 HNO₃). Total Cr was determined by oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI) ions using H₂O₂. The limit of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) of Cr(VI) were found to be 0.40 and 1.20μg L^-1, respectively with preconcentration factor of 250. Total saturation and breakthrough capacitates of the resin for Cr(IV) ions were found to be 0.181 and 0.531mmol g^-1, respectively. The proposed method was successfully applied for the preconcentration/speciation of Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions and determination of total Cr in industrial effluents.

Keywords: Styrofoam waste, Polymeric resin, Preconcentration, Speciation, Cr(III)/Cr(VI) ions, FAAS.

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Authors: Freeman Ntuli

Abstract:

An overview of the important aspects of managing and controlling industrial effluent discharges to public sewers namely sampling, characterization, quantification and legislative controls has been presented. The findings have been validated by means of a case study covering three industrial sectors namely, tanning, textile finishing and food processing industries. Industrial effluents discharges were found to be best monitored by systematic and automatic sampling and quantified using water meter readings corrected for evaporative and consumptive losses. Based on the treatment processes employed in the public owned treatment works and the chemical oxygen demand and biochemical oxygen demand levels obtained, the effluent from all the three industrial sectors studied were found to lie in the toxic zone. Thus, physico-chemical treatment of these effluents is required to bring them into the biodegradable zone. KL values (quoted to base e) were greater than 0.50 day-1 compared to 0.39 day-1 for typical municipality wastewater.

Keywords: biodegradability, industrial effluent, pollution control, public sewers

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Authors: Bogdan Walek, Jiri Bartos, Cyril Klimes, Jaroslav Prochazka, Pavel Smolka, Juraj Masar, Martin Pesl

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This paper focuses on creating a component model of information system under uncertainty. The paper identifies problem in current approach of component modeling and proposes fuzzy tool, which will work with vague customer requirements and propose components of the resulting component model. The proposed tool is verified on specific information system and results are shown in paper. After finding suitable sub-components of the resulting component model, the component model is visualised by tool.

Keywords: Component, component model, fuzzy, fuzzy rules, fuzzy sets, information system, modelling, tool.

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Authors: Ehsan Akhlaghi

Abstract:

Effective employee selection is a critical component of a successful organization. Many important criteria for personnel selection such as decision-making ability, adaptability, ambition, and self-organization are naturally vague and imprecise to evaluate. The rough sets theory (RST) as a new mathematical approach to vagueness and uncertainty is a very well suited tool to deal with qualitative data and various decision problems. This paper provides conceptual, descriptive, and simulation results, concentrating chiefly on human resources and personnel selection factors. The current research derives certain decision rules which are able to facilitate personnel selection and identifies several significant features based on an empirical study conducted in an IT company in Iran.

Keywords: Decision Making, Expert System, PersonnelSelection, Rough Set Theory

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Authors: Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Tim Borcherding, Peter Nyhuis, Hannover

Abstract:

Planning capacities when regenerating complex investment goods involves particular challenges in that the planning is subject to a large degree of uncertainty regarding load information. Using information fusion – by applying Bayesian Networks – a method is being developed for forecasting the anticipated expenditures (human labor, tool and machinery utilization, time etc.) for regenerating a good. The generated forecasts then later serve as a tool for planning capacities and ensure a greater stability in the planning processes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, capacity planning, complex investment goods, damages library, forecasting, information fusion, regeneration.

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Authors: K. Badron, A. F. Ismail, A. L. Asnawi, N. F. A. Malik, S. Z. Abidin, S. Dzulkifly

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The occurrences of precipitation, also commonly referred as rain, in the form of "convective" and "stratiform" have been identified to exist worldwide. In this study, the radar return echoes or known as reflectivity values acquired from radar scans have been exploited in the process of classifying the type of rain endured. The investigation use radar data from Malaysian Meteorology Department (MMD). It is possible to discriminate the types of rain experienced in tropical region by observing the vertical characteristics of the rain structure. .Heavy rain in tropical region profoundly affects radiowave signals, causing transmission interference and signal fading. Required wireless system fade margin depends on the type of rain. Information relating to the two mentioned types of rain is critical for the system engineers and researchers in their endeavour to improve the reliability of communication links. This paper highlights the quantification of percentage occurrences over one year period in 2009.

Keywords: Stratiform, convective, tropical region, attenuation radar reflectivity.

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Authors: Adrian O’Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: Empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient.

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Authors: Thabet Slimani, Boutheina Ben Yaghlane, Khaled Mellouli

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In the last few years, the Semantic Web gained scientific acceptance as a means of relationships identification in knowledge base, widely known by semantic association. Query about complex relationships between entities is a strong requirement for many applications in analytical domains. In bioinformatics for example, it is critical to extract exchanges between proteins. Currently, the widely known result of such queries is to provide paths between connected entities from data graph. However, they do not always give good results while facing the user need by the best association or a set of limited best association, because they only consider all existing paths but ignore the path evaluation. In this paper, we present an approach for supporting association discovery queries. Our proposal includes (i) a query language PmSPRQL which provides a multiparadigm query expressions for association extraction and (ii) some quantification measures making easy the process of association ranking. The originality of our proposal is demonstrated by a performance evaluation of our approach on real world datasets.

Keywords: Association extraction, query Language, relationships, knowledge base, multi-paradigm query.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated. Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated by simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: Limit cycles, Nonlinear dynamical system, Real time obstacle avoidance.

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Authors: Manel Mosbahi

Abstract:

The risk of water erosion is one of the main environmental concerns in the southern Mediterranean regions. Thus, quantification of soil loss is an important issue for soil and water conservation managers. The objective of this paper is to examine the applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in The Sarrath river catchment, North of Tunisia, and to identify the most vulnerable areas in order to help manager implement an effective management program. The spatial analysis of the results shows that 7 % of the catchment experiences very high erosion risk, in need for suitable conservation measures to be adopted on a priority basis. The spatial distribution of erosion risk classes estimated 3% high, 5,4% tolerable, and 84,6% low. Among the 27 delineated subcatchments only 4 sub-catchments are found to be under high and very high soil loss group, two sub-catchments fell under moderate soil loss group, whereas other sub-catchments are under low soil loss group.

Keywords: Critical source areas, Erosion risk, SWAT model.

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Authors: Orathai Pornsunthorntawee, Wareerom Polrut, Nopphawan Phonthammachai

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In the present work, the effects of additives, including contents of the added antioxidants and type of the selected metallic stearates (either calcium stearate (CaSt) or zinc stearate (ZnSt)), on the thermal stabilities of carbon black (CB)/high density polyethylene (HDPE) compounds were studied. The results showed that the AO contents played a key role in the thermal stabilities of the CB/HDPE compounds — the higher the AO content, the higher the thermal stabilities. Although the CaSt-containing compounds were slightly superior to those with ZnSt in terms of the thermal stabilities, the remaining solid residue of CaSt after heated to the temperature of 600 °C (mainly calcium carbonate (CaCO3) as characterized by the X-ray diffraction (XRD) technique) seemed to catalyze the decomposition of CB in the HDPE-based compounds. Hence, the quantification of CB in the CaSt-containing compounds with a muffle furnace gave an inaccurate CB content — much lower than actual value. However, this phenomenon was negligible in the ZnSt-containing system.

Keywords: Antioxidant, Stearate, Carbon black, Polyethylene.

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Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu

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After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.

Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR.

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Authors: A. R. Nemati, M. Haddad Zarif, M. M. Fateh

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This paper presents an adaptive feedback linearization approach to derive helicopter. Ideal feedback linearization is defined for the cases when the system model is known. Adaptive feedback linearization is employed to get asymptotically exact cancellation for the inherent uncertainty in the knowledge of the given parameters of system. The control algorithm is implemented using the feedback linearization technique and adaptive method. The controller parameters are unknown where an adaptive control law aims to drive them towards their ideal values for providing perfect model matching between the reference model and the closed-loop plant model. The converged parameters of controller would then provide good estimates for the unknown plant parameters.

Keywords: Adaptive control, helicopter, feedback linearization, nonlinear control.

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