Search results for: regression models.

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

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Periodicities in the environmetric time series can be idyllically assessed by utilizing periodic models. In this communication fugitive emission of gases from open sewer channel Lyari which follows periodic behaviour are approximated by employing periodic autoregressive model of order p. The orders of periodic model for each season are selected through the examination of periodic partial autocorrelation or information criteria. The parameters for the selected order of season are estimated individually for each emitted air toxin. Subsequently, adequacies of fitted models are established by examining the properties of the residual for each season. These models are beneficial for schemer and administrative bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to surmount future environmental problems.

Keywords: Exchange of Gases, Goodness of Fit, Open Sewer Channel, PAR(p) Models, Periodicities, Season Wise Models.

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Authors: A. Pereira, S. Haffner, L. V. Gasperin

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This paper presents two simplified models to determine nodal voltages in power distribution networks. These models allow estimating the impact of the installation of reactive power compensations equipments like fixed or switched capacitor banks. The procedure used to develop the models is similar to the procedure used to develop linear power flow models of transmission lines, which have been widely used in optimization problems of operation planning and system expansion. The steady state non-linear load flow equations are approximated by linear equations relating the voltage amplitude and currents. The approximations of the linear equations are based on the high relationship between line resistance and line reactance (ratio R/X), which is valid for power distribution networks. The performance and accuracy of the models are evaluated through comparisons with the exact results obtained from the solution of the load flow using two test networks: a hypothetical network with 23 nodes and a real network with 217 nodes.

Keywords: Distribution network models, distribution systems, optimization, power system planning.

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Authors: R. Kara, M. Can

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In this paper we study a food chain model with three trophic levels and Michaelis-Menten type ratio-dependent functional response. Distinctive feature of this model is the sensitive dependence of the dynamical behavior on the initial populations and parameters of the real world. The stability of the equilibrium points are also investigated.

Keywords: Food chain, Ratio dependent models, Three level models.

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Authors: R. K. Dubey

Abstract:

Bianchi type cosmological models have been studied on the basis of Lyra’s geometry. Exact solution has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for constant deceleration parameter and varying cosmological term of the universe. The physical behavior of the different models has been examined for different cases.

Keywords: Bianchi type-I cosmological model, variable gravitational coupling (G) and Cosmological Constant term (β).

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Authors: Bala Dhandayuthapani Veerasamy

Abstract:

Parallel programming models exist as an abstraction of hardware and memory architectures. There are several parallel programming models in commonly use; they are shared memory model, thread model, message passing model, data parallel model, hybrid model, Flynn-s models, embarrassingly parallel computations model, pipelined computations model. These models are not specific to a particular type of machine or memory architecture. This paper expresses the model program for concurrent approach to data parallel model through java programming.

Keywords: Concurrent, Data Parallel, JDK, Parallel, Thread

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Authors: Youngji Yoo, Cheong-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Young-Hak Lee, Sung-Shick Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the semiconductor manufacturing process, large amounts of data are collected from various sensors of multiple facilities. The collected data from sensors have several different characteristics due to variables such as types of products, former processes and recipes. In general, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods assume the normality of the data to detect out-of-control states of processes. Although the collected data have different characteristics, using the data as inputs of SQC will increase variations of data, require wide control limits, and decrease performance to detect outof- control. Therefore, it is necessary to separate similar data groups from mixed data for more accurate process control. In the paper, we propose a regression tree using split algorithm based on Pearson distribution to handle non-normal distribution in parametric method. The regression tree finds similar properties of data from different variables. The experiments using real semiconductor manufacturing process data show improved performance in fault detecting ability.

Keywords: Semiconductor, non-normal mixed process data, clustering, Statistical Quality Control (SQC), regression tree, Pearson distribution system.

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Authors: Tadeusz Nowicki, Radosław Pytlak, Robert Waszkowski, Jerzy Bertrandt, Anna Kłos

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This paper presents methods for formal modeling of activities in the area of sanitary inspectors outbreak of food-borne diseases. The models allow you to measure the characteristics of the activities of sanitary inspection and as a result allow improving the performance of sanitary services and thus food security.

Keywords: Food-borne disease, epidemic, sanitary inspection, mathematical models.

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Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

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Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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Authors: Fajaruddin Mustakim, Motohiro Fujita

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This paper present the study carried out of accident analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050) Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23. Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment accident rates on multiple rural roadway.

Keywords: Accident Trends, Black Spot Study, Accident Prediction Model

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Authors: Erika Ann Schaub, Christian J Darken

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Sociological models (e.g., social network analysis, small-group dynamic and gang models) have historically been used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups. However, they may not be the most appropriate method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations because the models were not initially intended to incorporate violent behavior of its subjects. Rather, models that incorporate life and death competition between subjects, i.e., models utilized by scientists to examine the behavior of wildlife populations, may provide a more accurate analysis. This paper suggests the use of biological models to attain a more robust method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations as compared to traditional methods. This study also describes how a biological population model incorporating predator-prey behavior factors can predict terrorist organizational recruitment behavior for the purpose of understanding the factors that govern the growth and decline of terrorist organizations. The Lotka-Volterra, a biological model that is based on a predator-prey relationship, is applied to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization.

Keywords: Biological Models, Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Model, Terrorist Organizational Behavior, Terrorist Recruitment.

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Authors: Saih Mohamed, Rouijaa Hicham, Ghammaz Abdelilah

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This paper presents circuit models to analyze the conducted susceptibility of multiconductor shielded cables in frequency domains using Branin’s method, which is referred to as the method of characteristics. These models, which can be used directly in the time and frequency domains, take into account the presence of both the transfer impedance and admittance. The conducted susceptibility is studied by using an injection current on the cable shield as the source. Two examples are studied; a coaxial shielded cable and shielded cables with two parallel wires (i.e., twinax cables). This shield has an asymmetry (one slot on the side). Results obtained by these models are in good agreement with those obtained by other methods.

Keywords: Circuit models, multiconductor shielded cables, Branin’s method, coaxial shielded cable, twinax cables.

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Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

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In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the K_sat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured K_sat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of K_sat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities. 

Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.

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Authors: Keny Ordaz-Hernandez, Xavier Fischer, Fouad Bennis

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This article illustrates a model selection management approach for virtual prototypes in interactive simulations. In those numerical simulations, the virtual prototype and its environment are modelled as a multiagent system, where every entity (prototype,human, etc.) is modelled as an agent. In particular, virtual prototyp ingagents that provide mathematical models of mechanical behaviour inform of computational methods are considered. This work argues that selection of an appropriate model in a changing environment,supported by models? characteristics, can be managed by the deter-mination a priori of specific exploitation and performance measures of virtual prototype models. As different models exist to represent a single phenomenon, it is not always possible to select the best one under all possible circumstances of the environment. Instead the most appropriate shall be selecting according to the use case. The proposed approach consists in identifying relevant metrics or indicators for each group of models (e.g. entity models, global model), formulate their qualification, analyse the performance, and apply the qualification criteria. Then, a model can be selected based on the performance prediction obtained from its qualification. The authors hope that this approach will not only help to inform engineers and researchers about another approach for selecting virtual prototype models, but also assist virtual prototype engineers in the systematic or automatic model selection.

Keywords: Virtual prototype models, domain, qualification criterion, model qualification, model assessment, environmental modelling.

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Authors: Zhou Yu, Jiang Feng

Abstract:

An adaptive Chinese hand-talking system is presented in this paper. By analyzing the 3 data collecting strategies for new users, the adaptation framework including supervised and unsupervised adaptation methods is proposed. For supervised adaptation, affinity propagation (AP) is used to extract exemplar subsets, and enhanced maximum a posteriori / vector field smoothing (eMAP/VFS) is proposed to pool the adaptation data among different models. For unsupervised adaptation, polynomial segment models (PSMs) are used to help hidden Markov models (HMMs) to accurately label the unlabeled data, then the "labeled" data together with signerindependent models are inputted to MAP algorithm to generate signer-adapted models. Experimental results show that the proposed framework can execute both supervised adaptation with small amount of labeled data and unsupervised adaptation with large amount of unlabeled data to tailor the original models, and both achieve improvements on the performance of recognition rate.

Keywords: sign language recognition, signer adaptation, eMAP/VFS, polynomial segment model.

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Authors: Nice Vasconcelos Coimbra, Fábio dos Santos Gonçalves, Marisa Nascimento, Ellen Cristine Giese

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The development of chemical routes for the recovery and separation of rare earth elements (REE) is seen as a priority and strategic action by several countries demanding these elements. Among the possibilities of alternative routes, the biosorption process has been evaluated in our laboratory. In this theme, the present work attempts to assess and fit the solution equilibrium data in Langmuir, Freundlich and DKR isothermal models, based on the biosorption results of the lanthanum and samarium elements by Bacillus subtilis immobilized on calcium alginate gel. It was observed that the preference of adsorption of REE by the immobilized biomass followed the order Sm (III)> La (III). It can be concluded that among the studied isotherms models, the Langmuir model presented better mathematical results than the Freundlich and DKR models.

Keywords: Rare earth elements, biosorption, Bacillus subtilis, adsorption isotherm models.

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Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: Discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes, Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer.

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Authors: John P. O’Sullivan, Thomas M. P. Ratouis, Michael J. O’Sullivan

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As the use of geothermal energy grows internationally more effort is required to monitor and protect areas with rare and important geothermal surface features. A number of approaches are presented for developing and calibrating numerical geothermal reservoir models that are capable of accurately representing geothermal surface features. The approaches are discussed in the context of cases studies of the Rotorua geothermal system and the Orakei-korako geothermal system, both of which contain important surface features. The results show that models are able to match the available field data accurately and hence can be used as valuable tools for predicting the future response of the systems to changes in use.

Keywords: Geothermal reservoir models, surface features, monitoring, TOUGH2.

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Authors: N. Sopipan, A. Intarasit, K. Chuarkham

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 In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: Volatility, Markov Regime Switching, Forecasting.

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

Abstract:

The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: Angle of internal friction, Cone penetrating test, General regression neural network, Soil modulus of elasticity.

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Authors: Surinder Deswal

Abstract:

The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines and Gaussian process based regression approaches to model the oxygen–transfer capacity from experimental data of multiple plunging jets oxygenation systems. The results suggest the utility of both the modeling techniques in the prediction of the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets oxygenation system. The correlation coefficient root mean square error and coefficient of determination values of 0.971, 0.002 and 0.945 respectively were achieved by support vector machine in comparison to values of 0.960, 0.002 and 0.920 respectively achieved by Gaussian process regression. Further, the performances of both these regression approaches in predicting the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient was compared with the empirical relationship for multiple plunging jets. A comparison of results suggests that support vector machines approach works well in comparison to both empirical relationship and Gaussian process approaches, and could successfully be employed in modeling oxygen-transfer.

Keywords: Oxygen-transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, Gaussian process.

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Authors: Hidehiko Okada, Takayuki Akiba

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It is well-known as Fitts’ law that the time for a user to point a target on a GUI screen can be modeled as a linear function of “index of difficulty (ID).” In this paper, the authors investigate whether the traditional ID formulation is appropriate independently of device screen sizes. Result of our experiment reveals that the ID formulation may not consistently capture actual difficulty: users’ pointing performances are not consistent among pointing target variations of which index of difficulty are consistent. The term A/W may not be appropriate because the term causes the observed inconsistency. Based on this finding, the authors then evaluate the applicability of possible models other than Fitts’ one. Multiple regression models are found to be able to appropriately represent the effects of target design variations. The authors next make an attempt to improve the definition of ID in Fitts’ model. Our idea is to raise the size or the distance values depending on the screen size. The modified model is found to fit well to the users’ pointing data, which supports the idea. 

Keywords: Fitts’ law, pointing device, small screen, touch user interface, usability.

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Authors: Anjali Chatterjee, Nirmal Kumar Roy

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Economically transformers constitute one of the largest investments in a Power system. For this reason, transformer condition assessment and management is a high priority task. If a transformer fails, it would have a significant negative impact on revenue and service reliability. Monitoring the state of health of power transformers has traditionally been carried out using laboratory Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) tests performed at periodic intervals on the oil sample, collected from the transformers. DGA of transformer oil is the single best indicator of a transformer-s overall condition and is a universal practice today, which started somewhere in the 1960s. Failure can occur in a transformer due to different reasons. Some failures can be limited or prevented by maintenance. Oil filtration is one of the methods to remove the dissolve gases and prevent the deterioration of the oil. In this paper we analysis the DGA data by regression method and predict the gas concentration in the oil in the future. We bring about a comparative study of different traditional methods of regression and the errors generated out of their predictions. With the help of these data we can deduce the health of the transformer by finding the type of fault if it has occurred or will occur in future. Additional in this paper effect of filtration on the transformer health is highlight by calculating the probability of failure of a transformer with and without oil filtrating.

Keywords: Power Transformers, Dissolve gas Analysis, Regression method, Filtration, oil.

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Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, M. Zaly Shah, A. Hamzah

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Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: Green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz

Abstract:

Estimation of a proportion has many applications in economics and social studies. A common application is the estimation of the low income proportion, which gives the proportion of people classified as poor into a population. In this paper, we present this poverty indicator and propose to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the low income proportion. Various sampling designs are presented. Assuming a real data set obtained from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to analyze the empirical performance of the logistic regression estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. Results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the customary estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. The stratified sampling design can also provide more accurate results.

Keywords:

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Authors: Ammar Mahjoubi, Ridha Fethi Mechlouch, Belgacem Mahdhaoui, Ammar Ben Brahim

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This purpose of this paper is to develop and validate a model to accurately predict the cell temperature of a PV module that adapts to various mounting configurations, mounting locations, and climates while only requiring readily available data from the module manufacturer. Results from this model are also compared to results from published cell temperature models. The models were used to predict real-time performance from a PV water pumping systems in the desert of Medenine, south of Tunisia using 60-min intervals of measured performance data during one complete year. Statistical analysis of the predicted results and measured data highlight possible sources of errors and the limitations and/or adequacy of existing models, to describe the temperature and efficiency of PV-cells and consequently, the accuracy of performance of PV water pumping systems prediction models.

Keywords: Temperature of a photovoltaic module, Predicted models, PV water pumping systems efficiency, Simulation, Desert of southern Tunisia.

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Authors: Lenka Ševelová, Aleš Florian

Abstract:

Appropriate and progressive tool for analyzing behavior of low volume roads are probabilistic models used in reliability analyses. The necessary part of the probabilistic model is the deterministic model of structural behavior. The FE model of low volume roads is created in the ANSYS software. It is able to determine the state of stress and deformation in any point of the structure and thus generate data required for the reliability analysis. The paper compares two material constitutive models used for modeling of unbound non-homogenous materials used in low volume roads. The first model is linear elastic model according to Hook theory (H model), the second one is nonlinear elastic-plastic Drucker-Prager model (D-P model).

Keywords: FEA, FEM, geotechnical materials, low volume roads, material constitutive models, pavement.

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Authors: Faisal A. Aburub

Abstract:

Organizations today need to invest in software in order to run their businesses, and to the organizations’ objectives, the software should be in line with the business process. This research presents an approach for linking process models and system models. Particularly, the new approach aims to synthesize sequence diagram based on role activity diagram (RAD) model. The approach includes four steps namely: Create business process model using RAD, identify computerized activities, identify entities in sequence diagram and identify messages in sequence diagram. The new approach has been validated using the process of student registration in University of Petra as a case study. Further research is required to validate the new approach using different domains.

Keywords: Business process modelling, system models, role activity diagrams, sequence diagrams.

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Authors: Jianguo Tang, Kun She, William Zhu

Abstract:

Covering-based rough sets is an extension of rough sets and it is based on a covering instead of a partition of the universe. Therefore it is more powerful in describing some practical problems than rough sets. However, by extending the rough sets, covering-based rough sets can increase the roughness of each model in recognizing objects. How to obtain better approximations from the models of a covering-based rough sets is an important issue. In this paper, two concepts, determinate elements and indeterminate elements in a universe, are proposed and given precise definitions respectively. This research makes a reasonable refinement of the covering-element from a new viewpoint. And the refinement may generate better approximations of covering-based rough sets models. To prove the theory above, it is applied to eight major coveringbased rough sets models which are adapted from other literature. The result is, in all these models, the lower approximation increases effectively. Correspondingly, in all models, the upper approximation decreases with exceptions of two models in some special situations. Therefore, the roughness of recognizing objects is reduced. This research provides a new approach to the study and application of covering-based rough sets.

Keywords: Determinate element, indeterminate element, refinementof covering-element, refinement of covering, covering-basedrough sets.

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Authors: Dileep Kumar Gupta, Rajendra Prasad, Pradeep Kumar, Varun Narayan Mishra, Ajeet Kumar Vishwakarma, Prashant Kumar Srivastava

Abstract:

An approach was evaluated for the retrieval of soil moisture of bare soil surface using bistatic scatterometer data in the angular range of 200 to 700 at VV- and HH- polarization. The microwave data was acquired by specially designed X-band (10 GHz) bistatic scatterometer. The linear regression analysis was done between scattering coefficients and soil moisture content to select the suitable incidence angle for retrieval of soil moisture content. The 250 incidence angle was found more suitable. The support vector regression analysis was used to approximate the function described by the input output relationship between the scattering coefficient and corresponding measured values of the soil moisture content. The performance of support vector regression algorithm was evaluated by comparing the observed and the estimated soil moisture content by statistical performance indices %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 2.9451, 1.0986 and 0.9214 respectively at HHpolarization. At VV- polarization, the values of %Bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were found 3.6186, 0.9373 and 0.9428 respectively.

Keywords: Bistatic scatterometer, soil moisture, support vector regression, RMSE, %Bias, NSE.

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Authors: Nnamdi I. Nwulu, Shola G. Oroja

Abstract:

It has become crucial over the years for nations to improve their credit scoring methods and techniques in light of the increasing volatility of the global economy. Statistical methods or tools have been the favoured means for this; however artificial intelligence or soft computing based techniques are becoming increasingly preferred due to their proficient and precise nature and relative simplicity. This work presents a comparison between Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks two popular soft computing models when applied to credit scoring. Amidst the different criteria-s that can be used for comparisons; accuracy, computational complexity and processing times are the selected criteria used to evaluate both models. Furthermore the German credit scoring dataset which is a real world dataset is used to train and test both developed models. Experimental results obtained from our study suggest that although both soft computing models could be used with a high degree of accuracy, Artificial Neural Networks deliver better results than Support Vector Machines.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Credit Scoring, SoftComputing Models, Support Vector Machines.

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