Utilizing Biological Models to Determine the Recruitment of the Irish Republican Army

Authors: Erika Ann Schaub, Christian J Darken

Abstract:

Sociological models (e.g., social network analysis, small-group dynamic and gang models) have historically been used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups. However, they may not be the most appropriate method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations because the models were not initially intended to incorporate violent behavior of its subjects. Rather, models that incorporate life and death competition between subjects, i.e., models utilized by scientists to examine the behavior of wildlife populations, may provide a more accurate analysis. This paper suggests the use of biological models to attain a more robust method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations as compared to traditional methods. This study also describes how a biological population model incorporating predator-prey behavior factors can predict terrorist organizational recruitment behavior for the purpose of understanding the factors that govern the growth and decline of terrorist organizations. The Lotka-Volterra, a biological model that is based on a predator-prey relationship, is applied to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization.

Keywords: Biological Models, Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Model, Terrorist Organizational Behavior, Terrorist Recruitment.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1333758

References:

[1] G. Ackerman, "Literature review of modeling the behavior of terrorist cells." Research report prepared for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. California: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2002, pp. 2.
[2] G. Ackerman, "Literature review of modeling the behavior of terrorist cells." Research report prepared for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. California: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2002, pp. 2.
[3] G. Ackerman, "Literature review of modeling the behavior of terrorist cells." Research report prepared for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. California: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2002, pp. 2.
[4] R.A. Hudson. (2005, November 12). "The Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why?" District of Columbia: Federal Research Division Library of Congress, 1999. (Online). pp 34. Available: http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdffiles/Soc_Psych_of_Terrorism.pdf.
[5] National Research Council (2005, November 11). Discouraging Terrorism: Some Implications of 9/11. Panel on Understanding Terrorists in Order to Deter Terrorism. N.J. Smelser and F. Mitchell, Eds. District of Columbia: The National Academies Press, 2002. (Online). pp 22. Available: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309085306/html/
[6] G. Ritchison. (2006, February 18). "Lecture Notes I: Introduction and Definition, BIO555/755 Behavioral Ecology". Eastern Kentucky University (Online). Available: http://people.eku.edu/ritchisong/behavecolnotes.htm.
[7] G. Ritchison. (2006, February 18). "Lecture Notes I: Introduction and Definition, BIO555/755 Behavioral Ecology". Eastern Kentucky University (Online). Available: http://people.eku.edu/ritchisong/behavecolnotes.htm.
[8] P. Waltman, J. Braselton, and L. Braselton, "A mathematical model of biological arms race with a dangerous prey," J. Theoretical Biology, vol. 218, no. 1, Sept 2002, pp. 55-70.
[9] A. De Koeijer, O, Diekmann, and P. Reijnders. "Modeling the spread of phocine distemper virus among harbor seals."." Bulletin of Mathematical Biology vol. 60, no 3, May 1998, pp. 585-596.
[10] M. Hudson and T. Smith, "Plant succession: Life history and competition," American Naturalist, vol. 130, no. 2, July 1987, pp. 168- 198.
[11] A. Mazur, "A biosocial model of status in face-to-face primate groups," Social Forces vol. 64, no 2, 1985, pp. 377-402.
[12] J.W.R. Lepingwell, "The Laws of Combat? Lanchester Reexamined," International Security, vol. 12, no 1, 1987, pp 89-134.
[13] N. Taoka, Lanchester Strategy, An Introduction. 3rd Ed. vol. 1, California: Lanchester Press, Inc., 1997, pp 1-4.
[14] L. Edelstein-Kesht, Mathematical Models in Biology. New York, NY: Chapman-Hall, 1988, pp. 220-221.
[15] L. Edelstein-Kesht, Mathematical Models in Biology. New York, NY: Chapman-Hall, 1988, pp. 218.
[16] L. Edelstein-Kesht, Mathematical Models in Biology. New York, NY: Chapman-Hall, 1988, pp. 220-221.
[17] P. Auger, R.B. de la Parra, S. Morand and E. Sanchez., "A predator-prey model with predators using hawk and dove tactics," Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 177&178, May-June 2002, pp. 185-200.
[18] G. Ackerman, "Literature review of modeling the behavior of terrorist cells." Research report prepared for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. California: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2002, pp. 2.
[19] T. Geraghty, The Irish War: The Hidden Conflict between the IRA and British Intelligence. Maryland: The John Hopkins University Press, 2000, pp. 39.
[20] F. McKenna, B. Lynn, M. Melaugh, (2004, October 29) "Background Information Northern Ireland Society-Security and Defence," (Online). Available: http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/ni/security.htm#03.
[21] P. Bishop and E. Mallie, The Provisional IRA. London: Heinemann, 1987, pp. 322.
[22] M. Melaugh, (2005, January 2) "Estimates of the Strength of Paramilitary Groups," (Online). Available: http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/violence/paramilitary2.htm.
[23] P. Bishop and E. Mallie, The Provisional IRA. London: Heinemann, 1987, pp. 322-323.
[24] F. McKenna, B. Lynn, M. Melaugh, (2004, October 29) "Background Information Northern Ireland Society-Security and Defence," (Online). Available: http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/ni/security.htm#03.
[25] C.J. Brown, Processes of Vegetation Change. New York: Springer- Verlag, 1990, pp.450.
[26] College of Saint Benedict/Saint John-s University, (2006, January 18) "Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test," (Online). Available: www.physics.csbju.edu/stats/KS-test.html.
[27] F. McKenna, B. Lynn, M. Melaugh, (2004, October 29) "Background Information Northern Ireland Society-Security and Defence," (Online). Available: http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/ni/security.htm#03.
[28] D. Boothroyd, The History of British Political Parties. London: Politico-s Publishing, 2001, pp. 275
[29] E. Moloney, A Secret History of British Political Parties. New York: Norton & Company, 2002, pp. 546.