Search results for: predictive modeling.

Authors: Sema Kurtuluş, Kemal Kurtuluş

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to review and assess the methodological issues and problems in marketing research, data and knowledge mining in Turkey. As a summary, academic marketing research publications in Turkey have significant problems. The most vital problem seems to be related with modeling. Most of the publications had major weaknesses in modeling. There were also, serious problems regarding measurement and scaling, sampling and analyses. Analyses myopia seems to be the most important problem for young academia in Turkey. Another very important finding is the lack of publications on data and knowledge mining in the academic world.

Keywords: Marketing research, data mining, knowledge mining, research modeling, analyses.

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Authors: Masood Roohi, Amir Taghavipour

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This paper describes a strategy to develop an energy management system (EMS) for a charge-sustaining power-split hybrid electric vehicle. This kind of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) benefit from the advantages of both parallel and series architecture. However, it gets relatively more complicated to manage power flow between the battery and the engine optimally. The applied strategy in this paper is based on nonlinear model predictive control approach. First of all, an appropriate control-oriented model which was accurate enough and simple was derived. Towards utilization of this controller in real-time, the problem was solved off-line for a vast area of reference signals and initial conditions and stored the computed manipulated variables inside look-up tables. Look-up tables take a little amount of memory. Also, the computational load dramatically decreased, because to find required manipulated variables the controller just needed a simple interpolation between tables.

Keywords: Hybrid electric vehicles, energy management system, nonlinear model predictive control, real-time.

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Authors: F. Hosseinpour, H. Hajihosseini

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Simulation is a very helpful and valuable work tool in manufacturing. It can be used in industrial field allowing the system`s behavior to be learnt and tested. Simulation provides a low cost, secure and fast analysis tool. It also provides benefits, which can be reached with many different system configurations. Topics to be discussed include: Applications, Modeling, Validating, Software and benefits of simulation. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on research efforts in simulation.

Keywords: Manufacturing, modeling, simulation, training.

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Authors: Jatinder Kumar, Ajay Bansal

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The present study deals with the modeling and simulation of flow through an annular reactor at different hydrodynamic conditions using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate the flow behavior. CFD modeling was utilized to predict velocity distribution and average velocity in the annular geometry. The results of CFD simulations were compared with the mathematically derived equations and already developed correlations for validation purposes. CFD modeling was found suitable for predicting the flow characteristics in annular geometry under laminar flow conditions. It was observed that CFD also provides local values of the parameters of interest in addition to the average values for the simulated geometry.

Keywords: Annular reactor, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), hydrodynamics, Rhodamine B

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Authors: R. Kongnuy, E. Naowanich

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In this paper we develop and analyze the model for the spread of Leptospirosis by age group in Thailand, between 1997 and 2010 by using mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Leptospirosis is caused by pathogenic spirochetes of the genus Leptospira. It is a zoonotic disease of global importance and an emerging health problem in Thailand. In Thailand, leptospirosis is a reportable disease, the top three age groups are 23.31% in 35-44 years olds group, 22.76% in 25-34 year olds group, 17.60% in 45-54 year olds group from reported leptospirosis between 1997 and 2010, with a peak in 35-44 year olds group. Our paper, the Leptosipirosis transmission by age group in Thailand is studied on the mathematical model. Some analytical and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Age Group, Equilibrium State, Leptospirosis, Mathematical Modeling.

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication models based on SoC design methodology. Such a model can be used to support the modeling of the complex wireless communication systems. Therefore, the use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high-performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP-based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: SystemC, modeling, simulation, CSMA.

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Authors: Brahim Brahmi, Mohammed Hamza Laraki, Mohammad Habibur Rahman, Islam M. Rasedul, M. Assad Uz-Zaman

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The humanoid robot, specifically the NAO robot must be able to provide a highly dynamic performance on the soccer field. Maintaining the balance of the humanoid robot during the required motion is considered as one of a challenging problems especially when the robot is subject to external disturbances, as contact with other robots. In this paper, a dynamic controller is proposed in order to ensure a robust walking (stabilization) and to improve the dynamic balance of the robot during its contact with the environment (external disturbances). The generation of the trajectory of the center of mass (CoM) is done by a model predictive controller (MPC) conjoined with zero moment point (ZMP) technique. Taking into account the properties of the rotational dynamics of the whole-body system, a modified previous control mixed with feedback control is employed to manage the angular momentum and the CoM’s acceleration, respectively. This latter is dedicated to provide a robust gait of the robot in the presence of the external disturbances. Simulation results are presented to show the feasibility of the proposed strategy.

Keywords: Preview control, walking, stabilization, humanoid robot.

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Authors: Angela Unna Chukwu, Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter (allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz growth models over its source model.

Keywords: Height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz.

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Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

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The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

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Authors: Yongsuk Jang Kim, Sun-Tae Chung, Boogyun Kim, Seongwon Cho

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Realistic 3D face model is more precise in representing pose, illumination, and expression of face than 2D face model so that it can be utilized usefully in various applications such as face recognition, games, avatars, animations, and etc. In this paper, we propose a 3D face modeling method based on 3D dense morphable shape model. The proposed 3D modeling method first constructs a 3D dense morphable shape model from 3D face scan data obtained using a 3D scanner. Next, the proposed method extracts and matches facial landmarks from 2D image sequence containing a face to be modeled, and then reconstructs 3D vertices coordinates of the landmarks using a factorization-based SfM technique. Then, the proposed method obtains a 3D dense shape model of the face to be modeled by fitting the constructed 3D dense morphable shape model into the reconstructed 3D vertices. Also, the proposed method makes a cylindrical texture map using 2D face image sequence. Finally, the proposed method generates a 3D face model by rendering the 3D dense face shape model using the cylindrical texture map. Through building processes of 3D face model by the proposed method, it is shown that the proposed method is relatively easy, fast and precise.

Keywords: 3D Face Modeling, 3D Morphable Shape Model, 3DReconstruction, 3D Correspondence.

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Authors: Stefaan Pauwels, Koen Inghelbrecht, Dries Heyman, Pieter Marius

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Literature reveals that many investors rely on technical trading rules when making investment decisions. If stock markets are efficient, one cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of technical trading rules in 34 emerging stock markets. The performance of the rules is evaluated by utilizing White-s Reality Check and the Superior Predictive Ability test of Hansen, along with an adjustment for transaction costs. These tests are able to evaluate whether the best model performs better than a buy-and-hold benchmark. Further, they provide an answer to data snooping problems, which is essential to obtain unbiased outcomes. Based on our results we conclude that technical trading rules are not able to outperform a naïve buy-and-hold benchmark on a consistent basis. However, we do find significant trading rule profits in 4 of the 34 investigated markets. We also present evidence that technical analysis is more profitable in crisis situations. Nevertheless, this result is relatively weak.

Keywords: technical trading rules, Reality Check, Superior Predictive Ability, emerging stock markets, data snooping

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Authors: B.W. Field

Abstract:

For a variety of safety and economic reasons, engineering undergraduates in Australia have experienced diminishing access to the real hardware that is typically the embodiment of their theoretical studies. This trend will delay the development of practical competence, decrease the ability to model and design, and suppress motivation. The author has attempted to address this concern by creating a software tool that contains both photographic images of real machinery, and sets of graphical modeling 'tools'. Academics from a range of disciplines can use the software to set tutorial tasks, and incorporate feedback comments for a range of student responses. An evaluation of the software demonstrated that students who had solved modeling problems with the aid of the electronic tutor performed significantly better in formal examinations with similar problems. The 2-D graphical diagnostic routines in the Tutor have the potential to be used in a wider range of problem-solving tasks.

Keywords: CAL, graphics, modeling, structural distillation, tutoring.

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Authors: Akram Golestani, Mohammad Kazemeini, Farhad Khorasheh, Moslem Fattahi

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Modeling and simulation of fixed bed three-phase catalytic reactors are considered for wet air catalytic oxidation of phenol to perform a comparative numerical analysis between tricklebed and packed-bubble column reactors. The modeling involves material balances both for the catalyst particle as well as for different fluid phases. Catalyst deactivation is also considered in a transient reactor model to investigate the effects of various parameters including reactor temperature on catalyst deactivation. The simulation results indicated that packed-bubble columns were slightly superior in performance than trickle beds. It was also found that reaction temperature was the most effective parameter in catalyst deactivation.

Keywords: Catalyst deactivation, Catalytic wet air oxidation, Trickle-bed, Wastewater.

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Authors: Nour Charara, Hussein Charara, Omar Abou Khaled, Hani Abdallah, Elena Mugellini

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In this paper, we present a human behavior modeling approach in videos scenes. This approach is used to model the normal behaviors in the conference halls. We exploited the Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis technique (PLSA), using the 'Bag-of-Terms' paradigm, as a tool for exploring video data to learn the model by grouping similar activities. Our term vocabulary consists of 3D spatio-temporal patch groups assigned by the direction of motion. Our video representation ensures the spatial information, the object trajectory, and the motion. The main importance of this approach is that it can be adapted to detect abnormal behaviors in order to ensure and enhance human security.

Keywords: Activity modeling, clustering, PLSA, video representation.

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Authors: Zakir Husain

Abstract:

This paper presents modeling and analysis of 12-phase distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM), which is capable of balancing the source currents in spite of unbalanced loading and phase outages. In addition to balance the supply current, the power factor can be set to a desired value. The theory of instantaneous symmetrical components is used to generate the twelve-phase reference currents. These reference currents are then tracked using current controlled voltage source inverter, operated in a hysteresis band control scheme. An ideal compensator in place of physical realization of the compensator is used. The performance of the proposed DTATCOM is validated through MATLAB simulation and detailed simulation results are given.

Keywords: DSTATCOM, Modeling, Load balancing, Multiphase, Power factor correction.

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Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

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The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: Parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems.

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Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

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Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m². 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal breast cancer, hormone sensitivity, Iraq, risk factors.

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Authors: M. H. Ayazi, M. Qamari, N.Hedayat, A. Rohani

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Simulation of the flow and sedimentation process in the reservoir dams can be made by two methods of physical and mathematical modeling. The study area was within a region which ranged from the Jelogir hydrometric station to the Karkheh reservoir dam aimed at investigating the effects of stream tubes on the GSTARS-3 model behavior. The methodologies was to run the model based on 5 stream tubes in order to observe the influence of each scenario on longitudinal profiles, cross-section, flow velocity and bed load sediment size. Results further suggest that the use of two stream tubes or more which result in the semi-two-dimensional model will yield relatively closer results to the observational data than a singular stream tube modeling. Moreover, the results of modeling with three stream tubes shown to yield a relatively close results with the observational data. The overall conclusion of the paper is with applying various stream tubes; it would be possible to yield a significant influence on the modeling behavior Vis-a Vis the bed load sediment size.

Keywords: Karkheh, stream tubes, GSTARS-3 Model, Jelogir hydrometric station.

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Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, M. Mortezaee

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Various factors such as the method of installation, the pile type, the pile material and the pile shape, can affect the final bearing capacity of a pile executed in the soil; among them, the method of installation is of special importance. The physical modeling is among the best options in the laboratory study of the piles behavior. Therefore, the current paper first presents and reviews the frustum confining vessel (FCV) as a suitable tool for physical modeling of deep foundations. Then, by describing the loading tests of two open-ended and closed-end steel piles, each of which has been performed in two methods, “with displacement" and "without displacement", the effect of end conditions and installation method on the final bearing capacity of the pile is investigated. The soil used in the current paper is silty sand of Firuzkuh, Iran. The results of the experiments show that in general the without displacement installation method has a larger bearing capacity in both piles, and in a specific method of installation the closed ended pile shows a slightly higher bearing capacity.

Keywords: physical modeling, frustum confining vessel, pile, bearing capacity, installation method

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

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Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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Authors: Fajaruddin Mustakim, Motohiro Fujita

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This paper present the study carried out of accident analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050) Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23. Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment accident rates on multiple rural roadway.

Keywords: Accident Trends, Black Spot Study, Accident Prediction Model

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling overdispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling overdispered medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling overdispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: Zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit.

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Authors: Vikas Rastogi, Vipan Kumar, Loveleen Kumar Bhagi

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The present work deals with the structural analysis of turbine blades and modeling of turbine blades. A common failure mode for turbine machines is high cycle of fatigue of compressor and turbine blades due to high dynamic stresses caused by blade vibration and resonance within the operation range of the machinery. In this work, proper damping system will be analyzed to reduce the vibrating blade. The main focus of the work is the modeling of under platform damper to evaluate the dynamic analysis of turbine-blade vibrations. The system is analyzed using Bond graph technique. Bond graph is one of the most convenient ways to represent a system from the physical aspect in foreground. It has advantage of putting together multi-energy domains of a system in a single representation in a unified manner. The bond graph model of dry friction damper is simulated on SYMBOLS-shakti® software. In this work, the blades are modeled as Timoshenko beam. Blade Vibrations under different working conditions are being analyzed numerically.

Keywords: Turbine blade vibrations, Friction dampers, Timoshenko Beam, Bond graph modeling.

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Authors: M. Behbahani-Nejad, Y. Shekari

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A reduced order modeling approach for natural gas transient flow in pipelines is presented. The Euler equations are considered as the governing equations and solved numerically using the implicit Steger-Warming flux vector splitting method. Next, the linearized form of the equations is derived and the corresponding eigensystem is obtained. Then, a few dominant flow eigenmodes are used to construct an efficient reduced-order model. A well-known test case is presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed method. The results obtained are in good agreement with those of the direct numerical method and field data. Moreover, it is shown that the present reduced-order model is more efficient than the conventional numerical techniques for transient flow analysis of natural gas in pipelines.

Keywords: Eigenmode, Natural Gas, Reduced Order Modeling, Transient Flow.

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Authors: Samppa Suoniemi, Harri Terho, Rami Olkkonen

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In recent methodological articles related to structural equation modeling (SEM), the question of how to measure endogenous formative variables has been raised as an urgent, unresolved issue. This research presents an empirical application from the CRM system development context to test a recently developed technique, which makes it possible to measure endogenous formative constructs in structural models. PLS path modeling is used to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring antecedent relationships at the formative indicator level, not the formative construct level. Empirical results show that this technique is a promising approach to measure antecedent relationships of formative constructs in SEM.

Keywords: CRM system development, formative measures, PLS path modeling, research methodology.

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Authors: Bindu Sankar, Jaideep Chakraborty, Rashmi Nawlakha, A. Venkatesan, S. Raghupathy, T. Jayanthi, S.A.V. Satya Murty

Abstract:

Component handling system is one of the important sub systems of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) used for fuel handling. Core handling system is again a sub system of component handling system. Core handling system consists of in-vessel and ex-vessel subassembly handling. In-vessel core handling involves transfer arm, large rotatable plug and small rotatable plug operations. Modeling and simulation of in-vessel core handling is a part of development of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor Operator Training Simulator. This paper deals with simulation and modeling of operations of transfer arm, large rotatable plug and small rotatable plug needed for in-vessel core handling. Process modeling was developed in house using platform independent Cµ code with OpenGL (Open Graphics Library). The control logic models and virtual panel were modeled using simulation tool.

Keywords: Animation, Core Handling System, Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor, Simulator

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Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.

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Authors: Erisasadat Sahebzamani, Núria Forcada, Francisco Lendinez

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Global climate change has become increasingly problematic over the past few decades. The construction industry has contributed to greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. Considering these issues and the high demand for materials in the construction industry, Circular Economy (CE) is considered necessary to keep materials in the loop and extend their useful lives. By providing tangible benefits, Construction 4.0 facilitates the adoption of CE by reducing waste, updating standard work, sharing knowledge, and increasing transparency and stability. This study aims to present a framework for integrating CE and digital tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Virtual Reality (VR) to examine the impact on the construction industry based on stakeholders' perspectives.

Keywords: Circular Economy, Building Information Modeling, Virtual Reality, stakeholder engagement.

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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Authors: Thiang, Handry Khoswanto, Rendy Pangaldus

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Inverse kinematics analysis plays an important role in developing a robot manipulator. But it is not too easy to derive the inverse kinematic equation of a robot manipulator especially robot manipulator which has numerous degree of freedom. This paper describes an application of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the inverse kinematics equation of a robot manipulator. In this case, the robot has three degree of freedoms and the robot was implemented for drilling a printed circuit board. The artificial neural network architecture used for modeling is a multilayer perceptron networks with steepest descent backpropagation training algorithm. The designed artificial neural network has 2 inputs, 2 outputs and varies in number of hidden layer. Experiments were done in variation of number of hidden layer and learning rate. Experimental results show that the best architecture of artificial neural network used for modeling inverse kinematics of is multilayer perceptron with 1 hidden layer and 38 neurons per hidden layer. This network resulted a RMSE value of 0.01474.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, back propagation, inverse kinematics, manipulator, robot.

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