Search results for: extreme event

Authors: Mojtaba Mahdavi, Mohamad Mahdavi, Maryam Yazdani

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A heuristic conceptual model for to develop the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), especially in preventive strategy, has been explored during this paper. In most real cases which complicity of system obligates high degree of reliability, this model proposes a more appropriate reliability function between life time distribution based and another which is based on relevant Extreme Value (EV) distribution. A statistical and mathematical approach is used to estimate and verify these two distribution functions. Then best one is chosen just among them, whichever is more reliable. A numeric Industrial case study will be reviewed to represent the concepts of this paper, more clearly.

Keywords: Lifetime distribution, Reliability, Estimation, Extreme value, Improving model, Series, Parallel.

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Authors: Rosmina Bustami, Charles Bong, Darrien Mah, Afnie Hamzah, Marina Patrick

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The distressing flood scenarios that occur in recent years at the surrounding areas of Sarawak River have left damages of properties and indirectly caused disruptions of productive activities. This study is meant to reconstruct a 100-year flood event that took place in this river basin. Sarawak River Subbasin was chosen and modeled using the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approach using InfoWorks River Simulation (RS), in combination with Geographical Information System (GIS). This produces the hydraulic response of the river and its floodplains in extreme flooding conditions. With different parameters introduced to the model, correlations of observed and simulated data are between 79% – 87%. Using the best calibrated model, flood mitigation structures are imposed along the sub-basin. Analysis is done based on the model simulation results. Result shows that the proposed retention ponds constructed along the sub-basin provide the most efficient reduction of flood by 34.18%.

Keywords: Flood, Flood mitigation structure, InfoWorks RS, Retention pond, Sarawak River sub-basin.

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Authors: Eva Čáslavová, Andrej Višněvský

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This research focused on the dimensions of brand personality of the Ice Hockey World Championship sporting event. The authors compared the elements in relation to different demographic groups including gender, age, level of education and student status of the population of Prague. Moreover, the differences of opinions of respondents who had experience of visiting a sports event and those who had not were assessed. In the research, the modified brand personality scale was used. This modified scale consists of five dimensions: responsibility, activity, toughness, individuality and emotionality, none of which was previously tested. The authors had an intentional sample of 291 respondents from Prague available, ranging in age from 18 years to 75 years, with either a high school or university education. The respondents rated the characteristic features in a seven-point Likert Scale and the data was collected in November 2012. The results suggest that the Ice Hockey World Championship is most identified with these dimensions: responsibility, emotionality and activity. Men had higher mean scores (4.93) on the Likert Scale in the emotionality dimension, while women had higher mean scores (4.91) in the activity dimension. Those respondents with experience visiting an Ice Hockey World Championship match had the highest mean score (5.10) in the emotionality dimension. This research had expected to show more pronounced mean values (above six) on the Likert scale in the emotionality and activity dimensions that more strongly characterize the brand personality of the Ice Hockey World Championship, however this expectation was not confirmed.

Keywords: Brand personality dimensions, ice hockey, international sport event, sports marketing.

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Authors: Chaw Su Mon

Abstract:

Abstract— The paper presents a preliminary study on modeling and estimation of basic wind speed ( extreme wind gusts ) for the consideration of vulnerability and design of building in Ayeyarwady Region. The establishment of appropriate design wind speeds is a critical step towards the calculation of design wind loads for structures. In this paper the extreme value analysis of this prediction work is based on the anemometer data (1970-2009) maintained by the department of meteorology and hydrology of Pathein. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are used to derive formulas for estimating 3-second gusts from recorded data (10-minute sustained mean wind speeds).

Keywords: Basic Wind Speed, Building, Gusts, Statistical and probabilistic approaches

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Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram

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In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.

Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.

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Authors: Nasir Yusoff, Ahmad Adamu Adamu, Tahamina Begum, Faruque Reza

Abstract:

The P300 from Event related potential (ERP) explains the psycho-physiological phenomenon in human body. The present study aims to identify the differences of amplitude and latency of P300 component from auditory stimuli, between ambiversion and extraversion types of personality. Ambivert (N=20) and extravert (N=20) undergoing ERP recording at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (HUSM) laboratory. Electroencephalogram data was recorded with oddball paradigm, counting auditory standard and target tones, from nine electrode sites (Fz, Cz, Pz, T3, T4, T5, T6, P3 and P4) by using the 128 HydroCel Geodesic Sensor Net. The P300 latency of the target tones at all electrodes were insignificant. Similarly, the P300 latency of the standard tones were also insignificant except at Fz and T3 electrode. Likewise, the P300 amplitude of the target and standard tone in all electrode sites were insignificant. Extravert and ambivert indicate similar characteristic in cognition processing from auditory task.

Keywords: Amplitude, Event Related Potential, P300 Component, Latency.

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Authors: Xin Zhao, Yin-fan Zhu, Wei-ping Wang, Qun Li

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The Influence Diagrams (IDs) is a kind of Probabilistic Belief Networks for graphic modeling. The usage of IDs can improve the communication among field experts, modelers, and decision makers, by showing the issue frame discussed from a high-level point of view. This paper enhances the Time-Sliced Influence Diagrams (TSIDs, or called Dynamic IDs) based formalism from a Discrete Event Systems Modeling and Simulation (DES M&S) perspective, for Exploring Analysis (EA) modeling. The enhancements enable a modeler to specify times occurred of endogenous events dynamically with stochastic sampling as model running and to describe the inter- influences among them with variable nodes in a dynamic situation that the existing TSIDs fails to capture. The new class of model is named Dynamic-Stochastic Influence Diagrams (DSIDs). The paper includes a description of the modeling formalism and the hiberarchy simulators implementing its simulation algorithm, and shows a case study to illustrate its enhancements.

Keywords: Time-sliced influence diagrams, discrete event systems, dynamic-stochastic influence diagrams, modeling formalism, simulation algorithm.

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Authors: Sukir Maryanto, Didik R. Santosa, Iyan Mulyana, Muhammad Hendrasto

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Successive event of explosion earthquake and harmonic tremor recorded at Semeru volcano were analyzed to investigate the dynamical system regarding to their eruptive mechanism. The eruptive activity at Semeru volcano East Java, Indonesia is intermittent emission of ash and bombs with Strombolian style which occurred at interval of 15 to 45 minutes. The explosive eruptions accompanied by explosion earthquakes and followed by volcanic tremor which generated by continuous emission of volcanic ash. The spectral and Lyapunov exponent of successive event of explosion and harmonic tremor were analyzed. Peak frequencies of explosion earthquakes range 1.2 to 1.9 Hz and those of the harmonic tremor have peak frequency range 1.5 — 2.2 Hz. The phase space is reconstructed and evaluated based on the Lyapunov exponents. Harmonic tremors have smaller Lyapunov exponent than explosion earthquakes. It can be considerably as correlated complexity of the mechanism from the variance of spectral and fractal dimension and can be concluded that the successive event of harmonic tremor and explosions are chaotic.

Keywords: Semeru volcano, explosion earthquakes, harmonic tremor, lyapunov exponent, chaotic.

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Authors: Guelfo Carbone

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The paper focuses on Heidegger’s 1919-1920 early research in order to point out his hermeneutical phenomenology of the life-world, arguing that the concept of world (Welt) is the main philosophical trigger for the phenomenology of factical life. Accordingly, the argument of the paper is twofold: First, the phenomenological hermeneutics of facticity is preceded both chronologically and philosophically by an original phenomenological investigation of life-world, in which the world is construed as the context of the givenness of life. Second, the phenomenology of life-world anticipates the question of being (Seinsfrage), but it also follows it, once this latter is shattered, the question of world as event remaining at the very core of Heidegger’s last meditations on the dominion of technology and the post-metaphysical abode of human beings on earth.

Keywords: Life-world, Heidegger, phenomenology, hermeneutics.

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Authors: M.H.Aziz, Erik L.J.Bohez, Manukid Parnichkun, Chanchal Saha

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Petri Net (PN) has proven to be effective graphical, mathematical, simulation, and control tool for Discrete Event Systems (DES). But, with the growth in the complexity of modern industrial, and communication systems, PN found themselves inadequate to address the problems of uncertainty, and imprecision in data. This gave rise to amalgamation of Fuzzy logic with Petri nets and a new tool emerged with the name of Fuzzy Petri Nets (FPN). Although there had been a lot of research done on FPN and a number of their applications have been anticipated, but their basic types and structure are still ambiguous. Therefore, in this research, an effort is made to categorize FPN according to their structure and algorithms Further, literature review of the applications of FPN in the light of their classifications has been done.

Keywords: Discrete event systems, Fuzzy logic, Fuzzy Petri nets, and Petri nets.

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Authors: Petra Balla, Gabor Manhertz, Akos Antal

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Nowadays spinal deformities are very frequent problems among teenagers. Scheuermann disease is a one dimensional deformity of the spine, but it has prevalence over 11% of the children. A traditional technology, the moiré method was used by us for screening and diagnosing this type of spinal deformity. A LabVIEW program has been developed to evaluate the moiré pictures of patients with Scheuermann disease. Two different solutions were tested in this computer program, the extreme and the inflexion point calculation methods. Effects using these methods were compared and according to the results both solutions seemed to be appropriate. Statistical results showed better efficiency in case of the extreme search method where the average difference was only 6,09⁰.

Keywords: Spinal deformity, picture evaluation, moiré method, Scheuermann disease, curve detection, moiré topography.

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Authors: Maxat Bokambayev, Bella Tussupova, Aisha Mamyrova, Erlan Izbasarov

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Optimization of business processes in trading companies is reviewed in the report. There is the presentation of the “Wholesale Customer Order Handling Process” business process model applicable for small and medium businesses. It is proposed to apply the algorithm for automation of the customer order processing which will significantly reduce labor costs and time expenditures and increase the profitability of companies. An optimized business process is an element of the information system of accounting of spare parts trading network activity. The considered algorithm may find application in the trading industry as well.

Keywords: Business processes, discrete-event simulation.

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Authors: Mourad Moussa, Ali Douik, Hassani Messaoud

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Events discrimination and decision maker in sport field are the subject of many interesting studies in computer vision and artificial intelligence. A large volume of research has been conducted for automatic semantic event detection and summarization of sports videos. Indeed the results of these researches have a very significant contribution, as well to television broadcasts as to the football teams, since the result of sporting event can be reflected on the economic field. In this paper, we propose a novel fuzzy sequential technique which lead to discriminate events and specify the technico-tactics on going the game, nor the fuzzy system or the sequential one, may be able to respond to the asked question, in fact fuzzy process is not sufficient, it does not respect the chronological order according the time of various events, similarly the sequential process needs flexibility about the parameters used in this study, it may affect a membership degree of each parameter on the one hand and respect the sequencing of events for each frame on the other hand. Indeed this technique describes special events such as dribbling, headings, short sprints, rapid acceleration or deceleration, turning, jumping, kicking, ball occupation, and tackling according velocity vectors of the two players and the ball direction.

Keywords: Sequential process, Event detection, Soccer videos analysis, Fuzzy process, Spatio-temporal parameters.

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Authors: Jiali Fu

Abstract:

Earthmoving operations are a major part of many construction projects. Because of the complexity and fast-changing environment of such operations, the planning and estimating are crucial on both planning and operational levels. This paper presents the framework ofa microscopic discrete-event simulation system for modeling earthmoving operations and conducting productivity estimations on an operational level.A prototype has been developed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, and this simulation system is presented via a case study based on an actual earthmoving project. The case study shows that the proposed simulation model is capable of evaluating alternative operating strategies and resource utilization at a very detailed level.

Keywords: Earthmoving operation, microscopic simulation, discrete-event simulation

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Authors: Olugbara O.O., Adebiyi A.A.

Abstract:

Most standard software development methodologies are often not applied to software projects in many developing countries of the world. The approach generally practice is close to what eXtreme Programming (XP) is likely promoting, just keep coding and testing as the requirement evolves. XP is an agile software process development methodology that has inherent capability for improving efficiency of Business Software Development (BSD). XP can facilitate Business-to-Development (B2D) relationship due to its customer-oriented advocate. From practitioner point of view, we applied XP to BSD and result shows that customer involvement has positive impact on productivity, but can as well frustrate the success of the project. In an effort to promote software engineering practice in developing countries of Africa, we present the experiment performed, lessons learned, problems encountered and solution adopted in applying XP methodology to BSD.

Keywords: Requirements engineering, Requirements elicitation, Extreme programming, Mobile Work force

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Authors: Aldrin R. Logdat

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This paper explores Jürgen Moltmann’s The Crucified God, focusing on his concept of a suffering God and its relevance to the understanding of suffering in the world. Moltmann argues that the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, understood as a Trinitarian event, provides a response to the problem of suffering in the world. Through a dialectical theological method, Moltmann suggests that God’s omnipotence is revealed in the impotency of the crucified one, and that the Son's abandonment by the Father confirms their unity to act in response to the world's suffering. Human suffering has been assumed and transformed by God, and through the event of the cross, all those who suffer can participate in the fullness of life in the Trinity. Moltmann’s theology suggests that God identifies with those who suffer, and the resurrection provides the possibility of justification for those who follow Christ's invitation to obedience.

Keywords: Suffering, Crucifixion, Trinitarian, Moltmann’s Theology.

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Authors: Omid Heydarnia, Akbar Allahverdizadeh, Behnam Dadashzadeh, M. R. Sayyed Noorani

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Underactuated biped robots control is one of the interesting topics in robotics. The main difficulties are its highly nonlinear dynamics, open-loop instability, and discrete event at the end of the gait. One of the methods to control underactuated systems is the partial feedback linearization, but it is not robust against uncertainties and disturbances that restrict its performance to control biped walking and running. In this paper, fuzzy partial feedback linearization is presented to overcome its drawback. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the proposed method to generate stable and robust biped walking and running gaits.

Keywords: Underactuated system, biped robot, fuzzy control, partial feedback linearization.

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Authors: Sun K. Yoo, Chung K. Lee

Abstract:

Determination of attentional status is important because working performance and an unexpected accident is highly related with the attention. The autonomic nervous and the central nervous systems can reflect the changes in person’s attentional status. Reduced number of suitable pysiological parameters among autonomic and central nervous systems related signal parameters will be critical in optimum design of attentional devices. In this paper, we analyze the EEG (Electroencephalography) and HRV (Heart Rate Variability) signals to demonstrate the effective relation with brain signal and cardiovascular signal during event-related attention, which will be later used in selecting the minimum set of attentional parameters. Time and frequency domain parameters from HRV signal and frequency domain parameters from EEG signal are used as input to the optimum feature parameters selector.

Keywords: EEG, HRV, attentional status.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Kyoung Kun Lee, Soongyu Kwon, Jong Tae Kim

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An embedded system for SEU(single event upset) test needs to be designed to prevent system failure by high-energy particles during measuring SEU. SEU is a phenomenon in which the data is changed temporary in semiconductor device caused by high-energy particles. In this paper, we present an embedded system for SRAM(static random access memory) SEU test. SRAMs are on the DUT(device under test) and it is separated from control board which manages the DUT and measures the occurrence of SEU. It needs to have considerations for preventing system failure while managing the DUT and making an accurate measurement of SEUs. We measure the occurrence of SEUs from five different SRAMs at three different cyclotron beam energies 30, 35, and 40MeV. The number of SEUs of SRAMs ranges from 3.75 to 261.00 in average.

Keywords: embedded system, single event upset, SRAM

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Authors: João Vilas-Boas, Abdul Suleman, Luis Moreira

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This research tested the performance of alternative warehouse designs concerning the picking process. The chosen performance measures were Travel Distance and Total Fulfilment Time. An explanatory case study was built up around a model implemented with SIMUL8. Hypotheses were set by selecting outcomes from the literature survey matching popular empirical findings. 17.4% reductions were found for Total Fulfilment Time and Resource Utilisation. The latter was then used as a proxy for operational efficiency. Literal replication of theoretical data-patterns was considered as an internal validity sign. Assessing the estimated changes benefits ahead of implementation was found to be a contribution to practice.

Keywords: Warehouse discrete-event simulation, Storage policy selection and assessment, Performance evaluation of order picking.

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Authors: Michaela Vašková, Jan Hrdlička, Otakar J. Mika, Jiří Barta, Gabriela Clemensová

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The paper is focused on the methods to solutions of the crisis situation in the Czech Republic associated with the mass methanol poisoning. The emphasis is put on tasks of individual state bodies and of Integrated Rescue System during the handling of the crisis. The theoretical part describes poisonings, ways of intoxication, types of intoxicants and cases of mass poisoning by dangerous substances in the world. The practical part describes the development, causes and solutions of extraordinary event, mass methanol poisoning in the Czech Republic. The main emphasis was put on the crisis management of the Czech Republic in solving this situation.

Keywords: Crisis management, poisoning, methanol, hazardous substances, extraordinary event.

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Authors: Justyna Rybicka, Ashutosh Tiwari, Shane Enticott

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In the age of automation and computation aiding manufacturing, it is clear that manufacturing systems have become more complex than ever before. Although technological advances provide the capability to gain more value with fewer resources, sometimes utilisation of the manufacturing capabilities available to organisations is difficult to achieve. Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) provide a unique capability to manufacturing organisations where there is a need for product range diversification by providing line efficiency through production flexibility. This is very valuable in trend driven production set-ups or niche volume production requirements. Although FMS provides flexible and efficient facilities, its optimal set-up is key in achieving production performance. As many variables are interlinked due to the flexibility provided by the FMS, analytical calculations are not always sufficient to predict the FMS’ performance. Simulation modelling is capable of capturing the complexity and constraints associated with FMS. This paper demonstrates how discrete event simulation (DES) can address complexity in an FMS to optimise the production line performance. A case study of an automotive FMS is presented. The DES model demonstrates different configuration options depending on prioritising objectives: utilisation and throughput. Additionally, this paper provides insight into understanding the impact of system set-up constraints on the FMS performance and demonstrates the exploration into the optimal production set-up.

Keywords: Automotive, capacity performance, discrete event simulation, flexible manufacturing system.

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Authors: Aishath Shakeela

Abstract:

At a global level, water stewardship, water stress and water security are crucial factors in tourism planning and development considerations. Challenges associated with water is of particular concern to the Maldives as there is limited availability of freshwater, high dependency on desalinated water, and high unit cost associated with desalinating water. While the Maldives is promoted as an example of sustainable tourism, a key sustainability challenge facing tourism dependent communities is the efficient use and management of available water resources. A water crisis event in the capital island of Maldives highlighted how precarious water related issues are in this tourism dependent destination. Applying netnography, the focus of this working paper is to present community perceptions of how government policies addressed Malé Water and Sewerage Company (MWSC) water crisis event.

Keywords: Crisis management, government policies, Maldives, tourism, water.

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Authors: Gamal Abd El-Nasser A. Said, El-Sayed M. El-Horbaty

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Container handling problems at container terminals are NP-hard problems. This paper presents an approach using discrete-event simulation modeling to optimize solution for storage space allocation problem, taking into account all various interrelated container terminal handling activities. The proposed approach is applied on a real case study data of container terminal at Alexandria port. The computational results show the effectiveness of the proposed model for optimization of storage space allocation in container terminal where 54% reduction in containers handling time in port is achieved.

Keywords: Container terminal, discrete-event simulation, optimization, storage space allocation.

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Authors: D. Hişam, S. İkizoğlu

Abstract:

Identifying the problem behind balance disorder is one of the most interesting topics in medical literature. This study has considerably enhanced the development of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms applying multiple machine learning (ML) models to sensory data on gait collected from humans to classify between normal people and those suffering from Vestibular System (VS) problems. Although AI is widely utilized as a diagnostic tool in medicine, AI models have not been used to perform feature extraction and identify VS disorders through training on raw data. In this study, three ML models, the Random Forest Classifier (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), have been trained to detect VS disorder, and the performance comparison of the algorithms has been made using accuracy, recall, precision, and f1-score. With an accuracy of 95.28 %, Random Forest (RF) Classifier was the most accurate model.

Keywords: Vestibular disorder, machine learning, random forest classifier, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting.

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Authors: Aïssa Rezzoug

Abstract:

This paper is aimed to bring new elements that demonstrate the tide caused the groundwater to rise in the shoreline band, on which the urban areas occurs, especially in the western coastal cities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia like Jeddah. The reason for the last events of Jeddah inundation was the groundwater rise in the city coupled at the same time to a strong precipitation event. This paper will illustrate the tide participation in increasing the groundwater level significantly. It shows that the reason for internal groundwater recharge within the urban area is not only the excess of the water supply coming from surrounding areas, due to the human activity, with lack of sufficient and efficient sewage system, but also due to tide effect. The research study follows a quantitative method to assess groundwater level rise risks through many in-situ measurements and mathematical modelling. The proposed approach highlights groundwater level, in the urban areas of the city on the shoreline band, reaching the high tide level without considering any input from precipitation. Despite the small tide in the Red Sea compared to other oceanic coasts, the groundwater level is considerably enhanced by the tide from the seaside and by the freshwater table from the landside of the city. In these conditions, the groundwater level becomes high in the city and prevents the soil to evacuate quickly enough the surface flow caused by the storm event, as it was observed in the last historical flood catastrophe of Jeddah in 2009.

Keywords: Flood, groundwater rise, Jeddah, tide.

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall.

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Authors: Sahar Modirzadehbami, Gholamreza Mansourfar

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Different types of Islamic debts have been increasingly utilized as preferred means of debt funding by Malaysian private firms in recent years. This study examines the impact of Islamic debts announcement on private firms- stock returns. Our sample includes forty five listed companies on Bursa Malaysia involved in issuing of Islamic debts during 2005 to 2008. The abnormal returns and cumulative average abnormal returns are calculated and tested using standard event study methodology. The results show that a significant, negative abnormal return occurs one day before announcement date. This negative abnormal return is representing market participant-s adverse attitude toward Islamic private debt announcement during the research period.

Keywords: Announcement effect, Event study, Islamic debts, Malaysia, Sukuk

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Authors: Nayera E. El-Gharably, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Aziz E. El-Sayed

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A key element of many distribution systems is the routing and scheduling of vehicles servicing a set of customers. A wide variety of exact and approximate algorithms have been proposed for solving the vehicle routing problems (VRP). Exact algorithms can only solve relatively small problems of VRP, which is classified as NP-Hard. Several approximate algorithms have proven successful in finding a feasible solution not necessarily optimum. Although different parts of the problem are stochastic in nature; yet, limited work relevant to the application of discrete event system simulation has addressed the problem. Presented here is optimization using simulation of VRP; where, a simplified problem has been developed in the ExtendSimTM simulation environment; where, ExtendSimTM evolutionary optimizer is used to minimize the total transportation cost of the problem. Results obtained from the model are very satisfactory. Further complexities of the problem are proposed for consideration in the future.

Keywords: Discrete event system simulation, optimization using simulation, vehicle routing problem.

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